Natural Forest Conservation Program Research Articles

Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Forest Landscape in China’s Giant Panda National Park: A Case Study of Jiudingshan Nature Reserve

The continuous prohibition of commercial logging and intensifying conservation endeavors have encompassed the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and the Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP) by the Chinese government since 1999. Nevertheless, the efficacy of the commercial logging ban and its effectiveness in halting deforestation remain uncertain. Likewise, the destructive aftermath of the 7.9 magnitude Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 continues to be under scrutiny, necessitating ongoing study and analysis. Thus, there exists a pressing need to comprehensively monitor the spatio-temporal evolution of the forest habitat and assess the ecological status over the past two decades. The Jiudingshan Nature Reserve (JNR) is situated in the upper reaches of the Tuojiang River basin in Sichuan province, China, constituting an integral part of the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP). In this study, we classified land cover types and conducted a meticulous monitoring of forest habitat alterations within JNR, by a multilayer perceptron model (MLP) with a highly learning-sensitive algorithm. To quantify these changes, the Simple Ratio Index (SRI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were computed from Landsat TM/OLI images of four years (i.e., 1997, 2007, 2008, and 2018). Additionally, elevation, slope, aspect, and other topographic data were acquired from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The findings of our study unveil a notable expansion in both the scope and proportion of mixed conifer and broadleaf forest from 1997 to 2004. The growth of coniferous forest and the augmented areas of mixed conifer and broadleaf forest signify a substantial improvement in panda habitat. However, the seismic event of 2008 exhibited a pronounced adverse impact on vegetation, particularly within forested regions. Although there is evidence of forest recovery spanning 21 years, concerns regarding fragmentation linger. It is pivotal to acknowledge the potential long-term adverse implications arising from widespread socio-economic development and a multitude of geohazards. Hence, sustained long-term monitoring coupled with effective management strategies remain pivotal for the preservation and rehabilitation of the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) and giant panda habitat in the future.

Integrating satellite-based passive microwave and optically sensed observations to evaluating the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation health in the red soil regions of southern China

ABSTRACT Attentions over the health of evergreen vegetation are increasing owing to frequently occurrence of recent disturbance events (i.e. soil erosion, logging activities, and afforestation). However, vegetation indices that characterize canopy greenness have limitations in spectral saturation for representing the growth states of densely vegetated areas, and the continuous acquisition of satellite-derived vegetation functional metrics depends on the availability of clear image observations. This study investigated the vegetation health dynamics (1993–2012) in the red soil regions of southern China using satellite observations based task-oriented metrics, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Water Content (VWC), and Aboveground Biomass Carbon (ABC). The results indicated that the total number of pixels with significant changes (SC) was 214, 1,186, and 794 for the NDVI, VWC, and ABC indices, respectively. More than 90% of the SC pixels in the three metrics exhibited increasing trends, which were primarily observed in mountainous areas. Pixels that exhibited a continuously declining trend were discretely distributed throughout the entire study area. Among the SC pixels, vegetation in major parts of the study area was disturbed by abrupt events. In the NDVI, VWC, and ABC, the frequency of abrupt changes increased after 2000, coinciding with the launch of the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) in 2000–2001. For regions with abrupt changes, four patterns were further observed based on the indices: the continued increases (pattern-1), sustained decreases (pattern-2), recovery growth after an initial decline (pattern-3), and significant decreases after initial growth (pattern-4). Pattern-1 appeared more frequently than the other three patterns. This study indicates that vegetation in most areas was optimally developed and exhibited a healthier tendency compared with previous growth states. Notably, the presence of an increasingly unhealthy vegetation state was observed in the northeastern region of the study area. Satellite derived datasets and synergetic use of indicators contribute to understanding the changes in the vegetation health in the entire red soil regions in southern China. Thus, this study acts as a reference for forest management and soil erosion control.

The Dominant Driving Force of Forest Change in the Yangtze River Basin, China: Climate Variation or Anthropogenic Activities?

Under the combined effect of climate variations and anthropogenic activities, the forest ecosystem in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades. Quantifying their relative contributions can provide a valuable reference for forest management and ecological sustainability. In this study, we selected net primary productivity (NPP) as an indicator to investigate forest variations. Meanwhile, we established eight scenarios based on the slope coefficients of the potential NPP (PNPP) and actual NPP (ANPP), and human-induced NPP (HNPP) to quantify the contributions of anthropogenic activities and climate variations to forest variations in the YRB from 2000 to 2015. The results revealed that in general, the total forest ANPP increased by 10.42 TgC in the YRB, and forest restoration occurred in 57.25% of the study area during the study period. The forest degradation was mainly observed in the Wujiang River basin, Dongting Lake basin, and Poyang Lake basin. On the whole, the contribution of anthropogenic activities was greater than climate variations on both forest restoration and degradation in the YRB. Their contribution to forest restoration and degradation varied in different tributaries. Among the five forest types, shrubs experienced the most severe degradation during the study period, which should arouse great attention. Ecological restoration programs implemented in YRB have effectively mitigated the adverse effect of climate variations and dominated forest restoration, while rapid urbanization in the mid-lower region has resulted in forest degradation. The forest degradation in Dongting Lake basin and Poyang Lake basin may be ascribed to the absence of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. Therefore, we recommend that the extent of the Natural Forest Conservation Program should expand to cover these two basins. The current research could improve the understanding of the driving mechanism of forest dynamics and promote the effectiveness of ecological restoration programs in the YRB.

Impact evaluation of a payments for ecosystem services program on vegetation quantity and quality restoration in Inner Mongolia

Globally, the payments for ecosystem services (PES) program has become a helpful tool that serves the purpose of mitigating ecosystem degradation and protecting ecosystem services. However, the ecological effects of existing PES programs based on counterfactual baselines, quantification and sophisticated statistical analyses are still poorly understood. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, this study evaluated the ecological effectiveness of the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) using the matching approach. The findings are as follows. First, 49.8% and 41.5% of the townships had significant gains in vegetation quantity and quality between 2000 and 2015, respectively; while 9.5% and 13.7% of the townships had significant losses in vegetation quantity and quality, respectively. Second, for forest quantity recovered townships, comparing to the NFCP unenrolled townships, the enrolled townships had increased forest quantity by additional 0.377 million ha (5.2%) from 2000 to 2015. Third, for forest quality recovered townships, the enrolled townships on average additionally increased forest quality by 465.513 Gg carbon (3.6%) from 2000 to 2015. Our study helps to promote sophisticated impact evaluation of conservation policies, which would improve the understanding and management of conservation practices in China and abroad.

Eco-socialism and the political ecology of forest conservation in the Greater Khingan Range, China

State-owned forestry enterprises (SOFEs) in China, established during the Maoist era for forest exploitation, have undergone significant reorganization under the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP). In this study, drawing on the perspectives of political ecology and a case study from a SOFE in the Greater Khingan Range in northeast China, we develop an eco-socialist perspective to understand this particular approach to forest conservation. The concept of eco-socialism is mobilized to describe how, as a form of all-encompassing social organization with overwhelming political, social, and economic power in the forestry regions, the eco-restructuring of SOFEs is key to the success of forest conservation. Four eco-restructuring processes have been identified: (1) declining timber sales and increasing central subsidies; (2) restructuring of work-units; (3) creating redundancies; and (4) developing new sustainable economic activities. Furthermore, these eco-restructuring processes, both mandated and supported by the central government, have a significant impact on state-society relationship. While the resources given by the central government allow SOFEs to maintain a stable relationship with some workers by providing them a relatively stable livelihood, the laid-off workers are the major victims of the process, as they suffer from loss of income, economic stability, and social self-esteem. This study enriches the literature by incorporating eco-socialist governmentality into the political ecology of forest conservation and illustrating how the political ecology perspective can be a powerful tool in the collective effort to craft sustainable and socially just futures in China.

A framework for calculating the net benefits of ecological restoration programs in China

Information about the costs and benefits of the land use changes that occur during the implementation of ecological conservation programs is still scarce. To obtain more information on these consequences, it’s necessary to compare the costs and benefits before and after project implementation. We have proposed a modification of the framework for calculating this change in the net benefits of ecological engineering, using implementation of China’s primary conservation programs to demonstrate the framework. We found that the annual net benefits created by the Three North Shelter Forest System Project, Natural Forest Conservation Program, and Grain for Green Program in 2017 were 461.7 × 109, 2930.5 × 109, and 530.1 × 109 RMB, respectively; these are equivalent to net benefits per unit area of 6.5 × 103, 17.6 × 103, and 18.2 × 103 RMB·ha−1·yr−1. These values represent rates of return equal to 29.3, 328.9, and 77.0%, respectively, compared with the costs of these investments. Due to the large differences in socioeconomic conditions and resource endowments among China’s diverse regions, it is necessary to account for these regional differences in the design of ecological restoration strategies to ensure that the programs are tailored to local conditions and produce the maximum net benefit. This approach can help governments find an optimal combination of land use and ecological conservation to improve the economic impacts of their restoration programs.

Long‐term land use/cover changes reduce soil erosion in an ionic rare‐earth mineral area of southern China

AbstractEcological restoration projects, such as the Grain‐to‐Green Program (GTGP) and the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP), have been implemented to improve vegetation cover since 1998. However, rapid urbanization has caused severe land use/cover (LUC) changes in the Dong River upstream basin. Therefore, it is urgent to study the long‐term (1999–2017) spatial–temporal variation of LUC and soil erosion since the implementation of GTGP and NFCP began in this area. Soil erosion and carbon sequestration were calculated using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and C‐fix model. During 1999–2017, forest decreased by 28,857.81 ha and built‐up area increased by 17,193.01 ha. This area experienced severe LUC change, but vegetation cover has been effectively improved. When the observation period was measured in years, vegetation cover had a greater impact on decreasing soil erosion (554.11 × 104 t yr−1) than rainfall, while in months, the impact of rainfall is greater (causing a dramatically rebound of soil erosion in 2014). Furthermore, high‐intensity human activities made soil erosion increased by 37.70% in Yuancheng District, whereas soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loss decreased by 49.96, 33.03, and 44.44%, respectively. Moreover, GTGP and NFCP also bring collateral benefits, carbon sequestered by vegetation increased from 99.11 × 106to 124.38 × 106 t CO2, during 1999–2014. And vegetation was the major factor of increased carbon sequestration, rather than temperature or solar radiation. These results elaborate on the impact of LUC changes on spatial–temporal variation of soil erosion. And it can provide a reference for the formulation of soil and water conservation measures in the future.

The Impact of Reforestation Induced Land Cover Change (1990–2017) on Flood Peak Discharge Using HEC-HMS Hydrological Model and Satellite Observations: A Study in Two Mountain Basins, China

Understanding the effect of land use and land cover (LULC) type change on watershed hydrological response is essential for adopting applicable measures to control floods. In China, the Grain to Green Program (GTGP) and the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) have had a substantial impact on LULC. We investigate the effect of these conservation efforts on flood peak discharge in two mountainous catchments. We used a series of Landsat images ranging from 1990 to 2016/2017 to evaluate the LULC changes. Further to this, the hydrological responses at the basin and sub-basin scale were generated by the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) under four LULC scenarios. Between 1990 and 2016/2017, both catchments experienced an increase in forest and urban land by 18% and 2% in Yanhe and by 16% and 8% in Guangyuan, respectively. In contrast, the agricultural land decreased by approximately 30% in Yanhe and 24% in Guangyuan, respectively. The changes in land cover resulted in decrease in flood peak discharge ranging from 14% in Yanhe to 6% in Guangyuan. These findings provide a better understanding on the impact of reforestation induced LULC change on spatial patterns of typical hydrological responses of mountainous catchment and could help to mitigate flash flood hazards in other mountainous regions.

Forest landscape dynamics and their relevance to forest operation factors during 1980-2015 in Sichuan province, China.

Forest landscape change is affected by a complex mix of multiple interacting factors, including the biophysical environment, socioeconomic activities, cultural contexts, and forest management. Here, we investigated the temporal and spatial changes in forested land in Sichuan, China, using forest resource inventory data from 1980 to 2015. The factors that drove forest landscape conversion included environmental and socioeconomic characteristics, and forest operations. We also used spatial techniques to allow for neighborhood effects from forest land use activities in neighboring areas. We found that forest landscapes were very dynamic, with high change and high turnover in forest type and cover, but with an overall net gain. Spatial regression models showed strong neighborhood effects. Forest operations such as afforestation and protected areas had positive effects on forest gain. Meanwhile, forest land use changes resulting from forest programs (in Sichuan, mainly the Grain to Green Program and Natural Forest Conservation Program) were the major driving factors for increasing forest areas and improving forest conditions, tempered by local conditions of topography, climate, demography, and economy. The effective implementation of sustainable forest management strategy and policy can increase forest quality and quantity and maintain ecological function.

Cost–Benefit Analysis of China’s Natural Forest Conservation Program

Land degradation, soil erosion by water, and desertification caused by deforestation are serious problems around the world. To counteract the effects of these problems, China’s government implemented the world’s largest and most comprehensive ecological restoration program: the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP). However, it’s not yet known how well the program has succeeded because no one has performed a comprehensive cost–benefit analysis. To provide the missing information, we developed an improved cost–benefit analysis approach that accounts for as many benefits and costs (including opportunity costs) as possible given the current availability of data. Our analysis revealed a net benefit of 6.029×1012 RMB per year for the NFCP. The net benefit (after subtracting the costs) was highest for protection of natural vegetation to allow recovery, but was lowest for afforestation by planting. We found significant differences between regions of China, suggesting that governments of these regions should adjust the balance among their ecological restoration measures to account for unique local conditions and maximize the net benefit. In addition, governments should increase subsidies to the residents of program areas to compensate them for the costs imposed on them by the NFCP.

Assessing the Effectiveness of China's Panda Protection System.

Protected areas form the backbone of biodiversity conservation, yet their effectiveness is often not known nor even evaluated [1-3]. China-best known for its record of ecological degradation in the face of rapidly increasing gross domestic product and resource consumption [4]-has in recent years enacted a series of policies and programs to conserve its natural resources. Chief among them is an ambitious protected area system covering 17% of its terrestrial land mass [4, 5]. An important early impetus for the establishment of this reserve system was the protection of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) [5-8]. Using data from two previous large-scale surveys [9, 10] separated by a decade, and including over 50,000 habitat plots, we examined the panda population and habitat trends inside and outside reserves. Despite ambitious ecocompensation programs in panda habitat outside reserves [11-13], the protection provided by reserves reduced most classes of human disturbance compared to outside reserves, and most disturbances decreased through time more strongly inside than outside reserves. Reserves also contained more and increasing suitable panda than found outside reserves [14, 15]. Comparing reserve performance, reserves with increasing older forests and bamboo correlated with increasing panda populations. Together these findings indicate that China's panda reserves have been effective and that they are functioning better over time, conserving more and better habitats and containing more pandas. While China's protected area system still has much room for improvement [4, 5], including to support pandas [16], these findings underscore the progress made in China's nascent environmental movement.

Changes in ecosystem services and an analysis of driving factors for China's Natural Forest Conservation Program.

China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) is aimed at improving the fragile and unstable ecological environment and has become one of the largest ecological restoration programs in the world because of its enormous investment and effects. It is important to work out and strengthen new measures to overcome difficulties to promote more ecosystem services and human well‐being in the NFCP. This study focused on how to evaluate the ecosystem services change brought about by implementing the NFCP. Taking the key state‐owned forest areas in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia as the study area, we provide a basic overview of development and construct an evaluation index system and a distributed calculation method for the NFCP to analyze the implications of the NFCP on ecosystem services combined with multi‐source data coupling. An evaluation index system for NFCP ecosystem services was constructed. The system includes five ecological service functions and 12 evaluation indices. The trade‐off and/or synergistic analysis of ecosystem services were carried out. The regional characteristics and changes in the NFCP ecosystem services were emphasized. Although it has not been implemented for a long time, the NFCP has had a great impact on ecosystem services because it reduces soil and water losses, increases soil fertility, strengthens the forest carbon sink and helped the forest accumulate nutrients and purify the atmosphere. Socioeconomic factors affect the NFCP ecosystem services, such as the implementation area of NFCP, investment amount of NFCP, area ratio of nature reserves, and yield of tree stock volume. Policy drivers of the NFCP, changes in the economic structure and reductions in forest yield are the main factors affecting the change in NFCP ecosystem services. Although the NFCP has positively affected the society, the economy, and the ecological environment, it has also generated some problems, such as the improper management of forest resources, shortage of capital investment, staff transfer, etc. The social and economic problems will be transient with implementation of the NFCP, and the structural changes in forestry and agriculture may eventually benefit the forestry workers and other stakeholders.

China's Environment on a Metacoupled Planet

China has emerged as a global economic powerhouse after four decades of unprecedented growth. Such growth has generated many environmental challenges with enormous ecological, socioeconomic, and health consequences in China and beyond. Although the overall quality of air and water is starting to improve, both are still below national and international standards. Water shortages are widespread. Biodiversity continues to decline. China is the world's top CO2emitter, although per capita emissions are much lower than those of developed counties. On the positive side, large national conservation programs have been implemented, including the Natural Forest Conservation Program, the Grain-to-Green Program, Ecosystem Functional Conservation Areas, and Ecological Protection Redlines. More than 2,750 nature reserves have been established and a new national park system is being constructed. Some endangered and threatened species, such as the giant panda, are showing signs of recovery, and forest cover and some ecosystem services have increased. These mixed environmental outcomes result from human-nature interactions within China as well as between China and adjacent and distant countries. These include increasing rapid economic growth, resource consumption, land use change, trade and investment, and conservation and development policies. We suggest systems approaches such as nexus approaches and flow-centered governance to help China achieve ecological civilization and become an environmental leader on a metacoupled planet.

Long-Term Impacts of China’s New Commercial Harvest Exclusion Policy on Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in the Temperate Forests of Northeast China

Temperate forests in Northeast China have been severely exploited by timber harvesting in the last century. To reverse this trend, China implemented the Classified Forest Management policy in the Natural Forest Conservation Program in 1998 to protect forests from excessive harvesting. However, the policy was unable to meet the 2020 commitment of increasing growing stock (set in the Kyoto Protocol) because of high-intensity harvesting. Accordingly, China banned all commercial harvesting in Northeast China in 2014. In this study, we investigated the long-term impacts of the no commercial harvest (NCH) policy on ecosystem services and biodiversity using a forest landscape model, LANDIS PRO 7.0, in the temperate forests of the Small Khingan Mountains, Northeast China. We designed three management scenarios: The H scenario (the Classified Forest Management policy used in the past), the NCH scenario (the current Commercial Harvest Exclusion policy), and the LT scenario (mitigation management, i.e., light thinning). We compared total aboveground forest biomass, biomass by tree species, abundance of old-growth forests, and diversity of tree species and age class in three scenarios from 2010 to 2100. We found that compared with the H scenario, the NCH scenario increased aboveground forest biomass, abundance of old-growth forests, and biomass of most timber species over time; however, it decreased the biomass of rare and protected tree species and biodiversity. We found that the LT scenario increased the biomass of rare and protected tree species and biodiversity in comparison with the NCH scenario, while it maintained aboveground forest biomass and abundance of old-growth forests at a high level (slightly less than the NCH scenario). We concluded there was trade-off between carbon storage and biodiversity. We also concluded that light thinning treatment was able to regulate the trade-off and alleviate the negative effects associated with the NCH policy. Our results highlighted limitations of the NCH policy and provided new insights into sustainable forest management and the interdependence between human society and the forest ecosystem.

Accounting for ecosystem services in compensating for the costs of effective conservation in protected areas

Protected areas are a major approach for conserving ecosystem services globally. Effective conservation in protected areas must integrate human livelihoods into the design and management of conservation. Although ecosystem services can contribute to reducing local people's costs of conservation, exploitation of ecosystem services often results in ecosystem degradation. One important ecosystem service is fuelwood, which is used by >2.5 billion people worldwide. Conservation policy design needs information on the demand for and values of fuelwood that can be extracted without compromising conservation goals of protected areas. We estimated local people's willingness to pay (WTP) for access to fuelwood in China's Wolong Nature Reserve, which is undergoing a net increase in forest area. Forest recovery in Wolong resulted from both the protection of the reserve and conservation under China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP). The estimated mean WTP for access to fuelwood accounted for about 21% of the payment under the NFCP. Among household characteristics, the cultural practice of cooking pig fodder, for which there were poor substitutes, played a major role in driving the demand for fuelwood. Although fuelwood collection can be prevented through increased conservation payments, fuelwood collection under forest management that fulfills conservation goals of the reserve can substantially reduce the costs of conservation. In addition, many other ecosystem services are also important to local people's livelihoods, and the combined values of different ecosystem services can substantially lower the costs of effective conservation in Wolong and many other protected areas around the world.

Reduced Runoff Due to Anthropogenic Intervention in the Loess Plateau, China

To maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources and reduce soil erosion in the Loess Plateau, the Chinese government has adopted a number of environmental restoration strategies since 1999, including the Grain for Green Project (GFGP) and the Natural Forest Conservation Program; these large projects greatly alter the regional water cycle. Detecting runoff changes and quantitatively assessing the contribution of anthropogenic activities (including land use/cover change (LUCC) and water diversion) and climate change (including potential evaporation and precipitation) are imperative for implementing sustainable management strategies. Using observed records from 15 hydrological stations and 85 national meteorological stations from 1980 to 2013, the decomposition method, based on the Budyko hypothesis, is used to quantify the impact of climate variation and anthropogenic interference on annual runoff for the 12 catchments in the Loess Plateau. The results show the following: (1) the observed annual runoff exhibited a negative trend in all 12 catchments (significant in eight catchments) with a range of −1.94 to −0.16 mm·year−1 and exhibited a substantial difference before and after 1999; (2) the sensitivity of runoff to vegetation change, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration increased in most catchments after 1999, indicating that great challenges and uncertainties might be introduced to regional water resource availability; and (3) the anthropogenic interference, particularly LUCC caused by forest strategies, has become the main contribution to runoff change. We suggest that more attention should be given to water resource availability and that the hydrologic consequences of revegetation should be taken into account in future management.

Review of regional carbon counting methods for the Chinese major ecological engineering programs

In order to improve environment and relieve poverty, China has launched a series of major ecological engineering programs since the 1980s. These include the Natural Forest Conservation Program, the Sloping Cropland Conversion Program, the Desertification Combating Program, and the Protection Forest System Construction Program. There is a growing need to quantify the contributions of these programs to regional carbon stocks. However, the lack of widely accepted, robust methods is one of the key obstacles to quantification. The objective of this study was to review existing methods for quantifying regional carbon stocks and then recommend suitable ones for the Chinese ecological engineering programs. We expect that the recommended methods can be applied to elsewhere in the world where there are similar characteristics and objectives.

Effects of conservation policy on China's forest recovery.

Forest loss is one of the most pervasive land surface transformations on Earth, with drastic effects on global climate, ecosystems, and human well-being. As part of biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation efforts, many countries, including China, have been implementing large-scale policies to conserve and restore forests. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies, and information on China's forest dynamics at the national level has mainly relied on official statistics. In response to international calls for improved reliability and transparency of information on biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation efforts, it is crucial to independently verify government statistics. Furthermore, if forest recovery is verified, it is essential to assess the degree to which this recovery is attributable to policy, within the context of other relevant factors. We assess the dynamics of forest cover in China between 2000 and 2010 and evaluate the effectiveness of one of the largest forest conservation programs in the world-the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP). Results indicate that forest cover has significantly increased in around 1.6% of China's territory and that the areas exhibiting forest gain experienced a combined increase in net primary productivity (ca. 0.9 Tg of carbon). Among the variables evaluated at county level, the NFCP exhibited a significantly positive relation with forest gain, whereas reduction in rural labor showed a negative relationship with both forest loss and gain. Findings such as these have global implications for forest conservation and climate change mitigation efforts.

Effects of payments for ecosystem services on wildlife habitat recovery.

Conflicts between local people's livelihoods and conservation have led to many unsuccessful conservation efforts and have stimulated debates on policies that might simultaneously promote sustainable management of protected areas and improve the living conditions of local people. Many government-sponsored payments-for-ecosystem-services (PES) schemes have been implemented around the world. However, few empirical assessments of their effectiveness have been conducted, and even fewer assessments have directly measured their effects on ecosystem services. We conducted an empirical and spatially explicit assessment of the conservation effectiveness of one of the world's largest PES programs through the use of a long-term empirical data set, a satellite-based habitat model, and spatial autoregressive analyses on direct measures of change in an ecosystem service (i.e., the provision of wildlife species habitat). Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat improved in Wolong Nature Reserve of China after the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. The improvement was more pronounced in areas monitored by local residents than those monitored by the local government, but only when a higher payment was provided. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of a PES program depends on who receives the payment and on whether the payment provides sufficient incentives. As engagement of local residents has not been incorporated in many conservation strategies elsewhere in China or around the world, our results also suggest that using an incentive-based strategy as a complement to command-and-control, community- and norm-based strategies may help achieve greater conservation effectiveness and provide a potential solution for the park versus people conflict.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Payments for Ecosystem Services: an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have increasingly been implemented to protect and restore ecosystems worldwide. The effectiveness of conservation investments in PES may differ under alternative policy scenarios and may not be sustainable because of uncertainties in human responses to policies and dynamic human-nature interactions. To assess the impacts of these interactions on the effectiveness of PES programs, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model: human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP). We used HANIP to study the effectiveness of China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and alternative policy scenarios in a coupled human-nature system, China's Wolong Nature Reserve, where indigenous people's use of fuelwood affects forests. We estimated the effects of the current NFCP, which provides a cash payment, and an alternative payment scenario that provides an electricity payment by comparing forest dynamics under these policies to forest dynamics under a scenario in which no payment is provided. In 2007, there were 337 km² of forests in the study area of 515 km². Under the baseline projection in which no payment is provided, the forest area is expected to be 234 km² in 2030. Under the current NFCP, there are likely to be 379 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 145 km² of forests to the baseline projection. If the cash payment is replaced with an electricity payment, there are likely to be 435 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 201 km² of forests to the baseline projection. However, the effectiveness of the NFCP may be threatened by the behavior of newly formed households if they are not included in the payment scheme. In addition, the effects of socio-demographic factors on forests will also differ under different policy scenarios. Human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP) and its modeling framework may also be used to assess the effectiveness of many other PES programs around the world.