Natural Experimental Study Research Articles

Impacts of zero-fare transit policy on health and social determinants: protocol for a natural experiment study.

Population-level efforts are needed to increase levels of physical activity and healthy eating to reduce and manage chronic diseases such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. Interventions to increase public transit use may be one promising strategy, particularly for low-income communities or populations of color who are disproportionately burdened by health disparities and transportation barriers. This study employs a natural experiment design to evaluate the impacts of a citywide zero-fare transit policy in Kansas City, Missouri, on ridership and health indicators. In Aim 1, comparison to 9 similar cities without zero-fare transit is used to examine differential changes in ridership from 3 years before to 4 years after the adoption of zero-fare. In Aim 2, Kansas City residents are being recruited from a large safety net health system to compare health indicators between zero-fare riders and non- riders. Longitudinal data on BMI, cardiometabolic markers, and economic barriers to health are collected from the electronic health record from 2017 to 2024. Cross-sectional data on healthy eating and device-measured physical activity are collected from a subsample of participants as part of the study procedures (N = 360). Numerous baseline characteristics are collected to account for differences between Kansas City and comparison city bus routes (Aim 1) and between zero-fare riders and non-riders within Kansas City (Aim 2). Evidence on how zero-fare transit shapes population health through mechanisms related to improved economic factors, transportation, physical activity, and healthy eating among low-income groups is expected.

Genetic analysis of selection bias in a natural experiment: Investigating in-utero famine effects on elevated body mass index in the Dutch Hunger Winter Families Study.

Natural-experiment designs that compare survivors of in-utero famine exposure to unaffected controls suggest that in-utero undernutrition predisposes to development of obesity. However, birth rates drop dramatically during famines. Selection bias could arise if factors that contribute to obesity also protect fertility and/or fetal survival under famine conditions. We investigated this hypothesis using genetic analysis of a famine-exposed birth cohort. We genotyped participants in the Dutch Hunger Winter Families Study (DHWFS, N=950; 45% male), of whom 51% were exposed to the 1944-1945 Dutch Famine during gestation and 49% were their unexposed same-sex siblings or "time controls" born before or after the famine in the same hospitals. We computed body-mass index (BMI) polygenic indices (PGIs) in DHWFS participants and compared BMI PGIs between famine-exposed and control groups. Participants with higher polygenic risk had higher BMIs (Pearson r=0.42, p<0.001). However, differences between BMI PGIs of famine-exposed participants and controls were small and not statistically different from zero across specifications (Cohen's d=0.10, p>0.092). Our findings did not indicate selection bias, supporting the validity of the natural-experiment design within DHWFS. In summary, our study outlines a novel approach to explore the presence of selection bias in famine and other natural experiment studies.

Children’s Health in London and Luton (CHILL) cohort: a 12-month natural experimental study of the effects of the Ultra Low Emission Zone on children’s travel to school

BackgroundThe Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), introduced in Central London in April 2019, aims to enhance air quality and improve public health. The Children's Health in London and Luton (CHILL) study evaluates the impact of the ULEZ on children's health. This analysis focuses on the one-year impacts on the shift towards active travel to school.MethodsCHILL is a prospective parallel cohort study of ethnically diverse children, aged 6–9 years attending 84 primary schools within or with catchment areas encompassing London’s ULEZ (intervention) and Luton (non-intervention area). Baseline (2018/19) and one-year follow-up (2019/20) data were collected at school visits from 1992 (58%) children who reported their mode of travel to school ‘today’ (day of assessment). Multilevel logistic regressions were performed to analyse associations between the introduction of the ULEZ and the likelihood of switching from inactive to active travel modes, and vice-versa. Interactions between intervention group status and pre-specified effect modifiers were also explored.ResultsAmong children who took inactive modes at baseline, 42% of children in London and 20% of children in Luton switched to active modes. For children taking active modes at baseline, 5% of children in London and 21% of children in Luton switched to inactive modes. Relative to the children in Luton, children in London were more likely to have switched from inactive to active modes (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.21–10.92). Children in the intervention group were also less likely to switch from active to inactive modes (OR 0.11, 0.05–0.24). Moderator analyses showed that children living further from school were more likely to switch from inactive to active modes (OR 6.06,1.87–19.68) compared to those living closer (OR 1.43, 0.27–7.54).ConclusionsImplementation of clean air zones can increase uptake of active travel to school and was particularly associated with more sustainable and active travel in children living further from school.

Associations between Changes in Exposure to Air Pollutants due to Relocation and the Incidence of 14 Major Disease Categories and All-Cause Mortality: A Natural Experiment Study.

Though observational studies have widely linked air pollution exposure to various chronic diseases, evidence comparing different exposures in the same people is limited. This study examined associations between changes in air pollution exposure due to relocation and the incidence and mortality of 14 major diseases. We included 50,522 participants enrolled in the UK Biobank from 2006 to 2010. Exposures to particulate matter with a diameter (), particulate matter with a diameter (), nitrogen oxides (), nitrogen dioxide (), and sulfur dioxide () were estimated for each participant based on their residential address and relocation experience during the follow-up. Nine exposure groups were classified based on changes in long-term exposures due to residential mobility. Incidence and mortality of 14 major diseases were identified through linkages to hospital inpatient records and death registries. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incidence and mortality of the 14 diseases of interest. During a median follow-up of 12.6 years, 29,869 participants were diagnosed with any disease of interest, and 3,144 died. Significantly increased risk of disease and all-cause mortality was observed among individuals who moved from a lower to higher air polluted area. Compared with constantly low exposure, moving from low to moderate exposure was associated with increased risk of all 14 diseases but not for all-cause mortality, with adjusted HRs (95% CIs) ranging from 1.18 (1.05, 1.33) to 1.48 (1.30, 1.69); moving from low to high areas increased risk of all 14 diseases: infections [1.37 (1.19, 1.58)], blood diseases [1.57 (1.34, 1.84)], endocrine diseases [1.77 (1.50, 2.09)], mental and behavioral disorders [1.93 (1.68, 2.21)], nervous system diseases [1.51 (1.32, 1.74)], ocular diseases [1.76 (1.56, 1.98)], ear disorders [1.58 (1.35, 1.86)], circulatory diseases [1.59 (1.42, 1.78)], respiratory diseases [1.51 (1.33, 1.72)], digestive diseases [1.74 (1.58, 1.92)], skin diseases [1.39 (1.22, 1.58)], musculoskeletal diseases [1.62 (1.45, 1.81)], genitourinary diseases [1.54 (1.36, 1.74)] and cancer [1.42 (1.24, 1.63)]. We observed similar associations for and with 14 diseases (but not with all-cause mortality); increases in and were positively associated with 14 diseases and all-cause mortality. This study supports potential associations between ambient air pollution exposure and morbidity as well as mortality. Findings also emphasize the importance of maintaining consistently low levels of air pollution to protect the public's health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14367.

Something for the young and old: A natural experiment to evaluate the impact of park improvements

Given the significant time and financial investment required to improve parks, evaluations of the effectiveness of park improvements are crucial to inform future investment and design to benefit people of all ages. This natural experiment study examined the impact of park improvements on park visitation and park-based physical activity (PA) in two suburban parks (Park A and Park B) compared to a control park with no improvements. Park A underwent substantial improvements with wide range of facilities, including an all-abilities large adventure-style playground, outdoor fitness area designed for older adults, walking paths and other amenities. Park B received relatively minor improvements that included a playground for young children, outdoor fitness equipment for older adults, and a picnic area. Direct observations were conducted using the System for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities at three timepoints; before (T1–2020) and after (T2–2021, and T3–2022) the improvements. At Park A, there was a significant increase in the total number of park visitors at both timepoints, and those engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) from T1 to T3, relative to the control park. There were also significant increases in active park visits among children, adults, and older adults. At Park B, there were no significant changes in the total number of park visitors or those engaged in MVPA at either timepoint relative to the control park. These findings suggest the extent of improvements and the diversity of facilities included can influence the success of the intervention. The study highlights that including challenging and diverse play equipment suitable for various age groups and abilities, as well as other recreational features such as walking paths and outdoor fitness equipment can increase park visitation and physical activity across different age groups. The findings can inform future park management and planning decisions.

Air pollution changes on the risk of preterm birth during COVID-19 lockdown periods in Canada: A natural experiment study

Air pollution changes on the risk of preterm birth during COVID-19 lockdown periods in Canada: A natural experiment study

Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health-Related Behaviours in Community Gardens in China: An Evaluation of a Natural Experiment

There is little robust quantitative evidence on how community gardens impact on physical activity and other health-related behaviours. This natural experiment study aimed to examine the effects of a community garden within a Chinese neighbourhood on health-related behaviours during the COVID-19 epidemic. The study design was a repeat cross-sectional pre–post study, assessing differences between the non-epidemic period and epidemic period. Camera-based systematic observations were conducted at two locations within a community garden. A total of 180 h of video recordings were collected and coded by two researchers during a “non-epidemic” period when there were no COVID-19 restrictions (120 h) and the “epidemic” when COVID-19 restrictions were implemented (60 h). Observations of these video recordings assessed the total number of users, physical activities (Sedentary, Walking, Vigorous), social interactions (Connect), and people taking notice of the environment (Take Notice), followed by a breakdown of observed gender and age group. Data were analysed using paired t-tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, comparing outcomes during the epidemic period and non-epidemic period. Results showed a significant increase in total number of users during the epidemic, particularly in females, older adults and children. Sedentary and moderate physical activities were significantly higher during the epidemic period. The increase in the total number of users of the community garden during the 2022 epidemic outbreak in Suzhou shows the importance of community gardens as a primary space for outdoor activities. This robust natural experiment study demonstrated that the community garden contributed more to physical activity, such as walking, but less to interactions between people (connecting) or people–place interactions (taking notice of the environment). More natural experiment research on community gardens like this is needed to better understand how the health and well-being benefits of community gardens can be maximized.

HPR152 The Impact of Insurance Reform on Health Resource Utilization and Persistence for Chinese Patients With Crohn’s Disease, Taking Ustekinumab as an Example: Evidence From a Natural Experiment Study

HPR152 The Impact of Insurance Reform on Health Resource Utilization and Persistence for Chinese Patients With Crohn’s Disease, Taking Ustekinumab as an Example: Evidence From a Natural Experiment Study

Effect of 20 mph speed limits on traffic injuries in Edinburgh, UK: a natural experiment and modelling study

IntroductionThere is limited research evaluating 20 mph speed limit interventions, and long-term assessments are seldom conducted either globally or within the UK. This study evaluated the impact of the phased...

Field Natural Experimental Study of Ice Growth Characteristics of Split Conductor and Single Conductor on Hybrid Freezing Icing

Abstract Transmission line icing seriously endangers the safe operation of transmission lines. At present, most of the research on transmission line icing is based on numerical simulation, and the growth law of transmission line ice in a natural environment has not been explored and studied. In this paper, natural ice-covering experiments are carried out in the Xuefeng Mountain Field (Natural) Ice Covering Test Base of Chongqing University, and single conductor, three-split, and four-split conductor ice-covering change rules in the mixed rime ice environment are explored. Test results found that the wind direction has a greater impact on the ice, and the windward side of the conductor ice is much larger than the leeward side. The downwind side of the ice of both single conductor and split conductor is smaller than the upwind side. The weight of ice on the split conductor line on the downwind side is about 86% of that on the upwind side. The results can provide a reference for the design of external insulation of UHV DC transmission lines.

Effects of agricultural informatization on agricultural carbon emissions: a quasi natural experiment study in China

ABSTRACT Agricultural informatization is regarded as a useful instrument for reducing carbon emissions, but few studies are devoted to illustrating the real effects and mechanisms of it in detail. In this paper, agricultural informatization policy (AIP) is regarded as an exogenous shock, TVDID (time-varying Difference-in-difference) method and county-level panel data from 2000 to 2018 in China are used to investigate the effects of agricultural informatization on agricultural carbon emissions. It shows that AIP reduces agricultural carbon emissions by 1.4% significantly. Technologies adoption and farmland enlarging are potential mechanisms for these effects. Education level and broadband accession can improve the effects of carbon reduction. The effects of AIP on carbon reduction are more salient for the eastern and main-grain-producing areas. This paper implies that agricultural informatization could be essential for local agricultural carbon reduction.

How well do parents identify their child's baby teeth? Engagement and accuracy of parent-reported information on a tooth checklist survey.

Naturally exfoliated primary teeth are being increasingly collected in child development studies. Most of these odontological collections and tooth biobanks use parent-reported information from questionnaires or tooth checklists to collect data on offspring teeth. To the best of the authors' knowledge, no studies have assessed parental engagement in tooth checklists, nor parental accuracy in identifying their child's baby tooth. This study aimed to evaluate these dimensions by analysing data from the about this tooth checklist returned with donated primary teeth in a natural experimental study called STRONG (the Stories Teeth Record of Newborn Growth). Parental self-reported information were analysed on checklists returned with 825 primary teeth belonging to 199 children. The percentage of blank answers was calculated for each question. The accuracy of parents-reported tooth identification was evaluated by comparing parental ratings to researchers' ratings. Reliability of researchers' tooth identification was first evaluated by calculating intra-observer and inter-observer agreements, as well as Cohen's Kappa values. The percentage of accuracy of parents' tooth identification (relative to researcher's) was then calculated, and logistic regressions were used to evaluate if time elapsed between when exfoliation occurred and the checklist was completed associated with parental accuracy in tooth identification. Parents returned 98.4% of the checklists and completed 74.9% to 97.7% of the questions. Excellent reliability was demonstrated for researchers' intra- and inter-rater tooth identification (agreement percentages >90%; Cohen's Kappa values >.83). Moderate accuracy of parents-reported tooth identifications was found, with parents correctly identifying 49.5% of the donated tooth. Better parental accuracies were highlighted for partial identifications (87.1% of correct jaw, 75.6% of correct tooth type, and 65.8% of correct lateralization). Logistic regressions showed the odds of correct parental identifications decreased on average by 1.8% every 30 days of distance between tooth exfoliation and checklist completion. While parental engagement is high, parents-reported tooth identifications have moderate accuracy, which decreases over time. High accuracy is however found for partial identifications. Parent-reported information on the accompanying questionnaire of naturally exfoliated primary teeth collection or tooth biobanks, even when filled in a long time after exfoliation took place, should be encouraged. However, expert identifications of teeth should remain best practice.

COVID-19 Imposed Closure of Rural Co-Housing and Loneliness in Older Adults Living Alone: Longitudinal Evidence From South Korea.

This study aimed to examine the impact of COVID-19 on loneliness among rural older women in senior cohousing in Korea. Using a natural experimental study design, we investigated how the pandemic-induced closure of cohousing affected the former residents' loneliness. The sample comprised 84 cohousing residents and 51 individuals in conventional homes. The dependent variable is loneliness, and the independent variables include housing transition, social contact, and support from neighbors and friends. Our findings from fixed effect regression models showed former cohousing residents were less likely to experience loneliness when they had more contact with their friends and neighbors, while negative relationships exacerbated feelings of loneliness. Sharing meals and participating in activities with friends and neighbors in cohousing helped the residents develop effective coping strategies. Senior cohousing in rural areas has the potential to strengthen social ties and protect the most vulnerable subgroup of older adults from social isolation and loneliness.

Large walking and wellbeing behaviour benefits of co-designed sustainable park improvements: A natural experimental study in a UK deprived urban area

There is little robust evidence of how sustainable park interventions impact on physical activity and other behaviours important for wellbeing. This controlled natural experimental study aimed to examine the effects of co-designing a sustainable park intervention, in a deprived UK urban area, on walking and other wellbeing behaviours.Behaviour observations were conducted at two intervention sites and two matched comparison sites (n = 4,783). Walking observations (primary outcome), wellbeing behaviours (vigorous, sedentary, social and take notice activities) and demographic characteristics were assessed at pre-intervention, and post-intervention (3 and 15 months). Outcomes were compared between intervention and comparison groups, controlling for pre-intervention using multilevel negative binomial regression models. Additional behaviour observations were conducted in two unchanged nearby sites to assess changes in general local activity. Intercept surveys (n = 623) assessed change in self-reported outdoor space usage at intervention and control areas.Post-intervention, walking increased 203 % at 3 months (IRR 2·03, 95 % CI 1·01-4·09) and 351 % at 15 months (IRR 3·51, 95 % CI 2·07-5·93), for intervention sites relative to comparison sites. Large increases for other wellbeing behaviours were also observed. The proportion of non-white persons increased substantially post-intervention, compared to comparison sites. Nearby unchanged sites showed little evidence of general increased activity. Self-reported outdoor usage increased more in the intervention sites (p=<0·001).Sustainable solutions can yield large increases in walking and wellbeing in deprived areas, especially where interventions are co-designed with residents. More collaborative and robust natural experimental studies like this are needed to better inform decision-makers how to maximise health and wellbeing outcomes from sustainable interventions.

Physical Activity of School-Going Adolescents During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Natural Experiment Study

Physical Activity of School-Going Adolescents During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Natural Experiment Study

Changes in the number and outcome of takeaway food outlet planning applications in response to adoption of management zones around schools in England: A time series analysis

Physical exposure to takeaway food outlets (“takeaways”) is associated with poor diet and excess weight, which are leading causes of excess morbidity and mortality. At the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) in England had adopted takeaway management zones (or “exclusion zones”), which is an urban planning intervention designed to reduce physical exposure to takeaways around schools. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we used interrupted time series analyses to estimate the impact of this intervention on changes in the total number of takeaway planning applications received by LAs and the percentage rejected, at both first decision and after any appeal, within management zones, per quarter of calendar year. Changes in these proximal process measures would precede downstream retail and health impacts. We observed an overall decrease in the number of applications received by intervention LAs at 12 months post-intervention (6.3 fewer, 95% CI -0.1, -12.5), and an increase in the percentage of applications that were rejected at first (additional 18.8%, 95% CI 3.7, 33.9) and final (additional 19.6%, 95% CI 4.7, 34.6) decision, the latter taking into account any appeal outcomes. This effect size for the number of planning applications was maintained at 24 months, although it was not statistically significant. We also identified three distinct sub-types of management zone regulations (full, town centre exempt, and time management zones). The changes observed in rejections were most prominent for full management zones (where the regulations are applied irrespective of overlap with town centres), where the percentage of applications rejected was increased by an additional 46.1% at 24 months. Our findings suggest that takeaway management zone policies may have the potential to curb the proliferation of new takeaways near schools and subsequently impact on population health.

Changes in the number of new takeaway food outlets associated with adoption of management zones around schools: A natural experimental evaluation in England

By the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) across England had adopted takeaway management zones (or “exclusion zones”) around schools as a means to curb proliferation of new takeaways. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we evaluated the impact of management zones on takeaway retail, including unintended displacement of takeaways to areas immediately beyond management zones, and impacts on chain fast-food outlets. We used uncontrolled interrupted time series analyses to estimate changes from up to six years pre- and post-adoption of takeaway management zones around schools. We evaluated three outcomes: mean number of new takeaways within management zones (and by three identified sub-types: full management, town centre exempt and time management zones); mean number on the periphery of management zones (i.e. within an additional 100 m of the edge of zones); and presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones. For 26 LAs, we observed an overall decrease in the number of new takeaways opening within management zones. Six years post-intervention, we observed 0.83 (95% CI -0.30, −1.03) fewer new outlets opening per LA than would have been expected in absence of the intervention, equivalent to an 81.0% (95% CI -29.1, −100) reduction in the number of new outlets. Cumulatively, 12 (54%) fewer new takeaways opened than would have been expected over the six-year post-intervention period. When stratified by policy type, effects were most prominent for full management zones and town centre exempt zones. Estimates of intervention effects on numbers of new takeaways on the periphery of management zones, and on the presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones, did not meet statistical significance. Our findings suggest that management zone policies were able to demonstrably curb the proliferation of new takeaways. Modelling studies are required to measure the possible population health impacts associated with this change.

Finding your way: exploring urban park users’ engagement with a wayfinding intervention through intercept go-along interviews

ABSTRACT This study explores urban park users’ engagement with a wayfinding intervention from a natural experimental study- The Delapré Walk Project. A qualitative approach was taken, with 16 intercept go-along interviews conducted with 28 local park users while they engaged with the greenspace. Barriers to greenspace access included a lack of seating and unfamiliarity with distances and footpath terrains. The inclusion of a walking route distance on wayfinding signage was valued by visitors, enabling them to make capability decisions about distances to be walked. The greenspace offered an escape from the urban environment, with some respondents explicitly stating that they did not want to see urban infrastructure within the park. This carries an important implication for wayfinding design to ensure the materials used are in-keeping with the surrounding environment. Frequent park users positively received the wayfinding intervention and whilst the main values were seen for infrequent visitors, those familiar with the park also reported increased engagement with the greenspace due to the intervention. Our research shows the value of low-cost and effective community-informed wayfinding interventions, which are essential for increasing recreational walking activity and community health within urban greenspaces. Importantly, our findings highlight wide-reaching benefits, particularly for infrequent greenspace users, older adults and those with mobility impairments, demonstrating how such interventions can help ensure equitable access to greenspace for everyone.

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Adherence to Antihypertensive Medications

Nonadherence to antihypertensive medications is associated with uncontrolled blood pressure, higher mortality rates, and increased health care costs, and food insecurity is one of the modifiable medication nonadherence risk factors. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), a social intervention program for addressing food insecurity, may help improve adherence to antihypertensive medications. To evaluate whether receipt of SNAP benefits can modify the consequences of food insecurity on nonadherence to antihypertensive medications. A retrospective cohort study design was used to assemble a cohort of antihypertensive medication users from the linked Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS)-National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) dataset for 2016 to 2017. The MEPS is a national longitudinal survey on verified self-reported prescribed medication use and health care access measures, and the NHIS is an annual cross-sectional survey of US households that collects comprehensive health information, health behavior, and sociodemographic data, including receipt of SNAP benefits. Receipt of SNAP benefits in the past 12 months and food insecurity status in the past 30 days were assessed through standard questionnaires during the study period. Data analysis was performed from March to December 2021. Status of SNAP benefit receipt. The main outcome, nonadherence to antihypertensive medication refill adherence (MRA), was defined using the MEPS data as the total days' supply divided by 365 days for each antihypertensive medication class. Patients were considered nonadherent if their overall MRA was less than 80%. Food insecurity status in the 30 days prior to the survey was modeled as the effect modifier. Inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weighting was used to control for measured confounding effects of baseline covariates. A probit model was used, weighted by the product of the computed IPT weights and MEPS weights, to estimate the population average treatment effects (PATEs) of SNAP benefit receipt on nonadherence. A stratified analysis approach was used to assess for potential effect modification by food insecurity status. This analysis involved 6692 antihypertensive medication users, of whom 1203 (12.8%) reported receiving SNAP benefits and 1338 (14.8%) were considered as food insecure. The mean (SD) age was 63.0 (13.3) years; 3632 (51.3%) of the participants were women and 3060 (45.7%) were men. Although SNAP was not associated with nonadherence to antihypertensive medications in the overall population, it was associated with a 13.6-percentage point reduction in nonadherence (PATE, -13.6 [95% CI, -25.0 to -2.3]) among the food-insecure subgroup but not among their food-secure counterparts. This analysis of a national observational dataset suggests that patients with hypertension who receive SNAP benefits may be less likely to become nonadherent to antihypertensive medication, especially if they are experiencing food insecurity. Further examination of the role of SNAP as a potential intervention for preventing nonadherence to antihypertensive medications through prospectively designed interventional studies or natural experiment study designs is needed.

ВПЛИВ ПОГОДНИХ УМОВ НА РЕЗУЛЬТАТИ ЗАСТОСУВАННЯ КІНЕТИЧНОЇ ЗБРОЇ НЕСМЕРТЕЛЬНОЇ ДІЇ

Currently, when designing non-lethal kinetic weapons, the degree of protection of the target provided by clothing items, especially during cold seasons, is not considered. As a result of the loss of part of the energy of the impact element on deformation and destruction of clothing items, the effects on the target can significantly differ from those calculated for normal conditions and exceed permissible limits. This may lead to the failure of the firing task due to insufficient or excessive action of the impact element on the target. For the purpose of determining the influence of the degree of target protection by clothing items on the results of the action of the impact element, natural experimental studies were conducted using a pneumatic ballistic installation and a target simulator made of ballistic plasticine "Beschussmasse". The results yielded empirical dependencies of the penetration depth of the impact element from its velocity upon meeting the target for several protection variants of the object of weapon application by clothing items. These dependencies can be used during the design of non-lethal kinetic weapons, as well as for selecting models of such weapons from those available to perform firing tasks in specific temperature conditions. The work also draws attention to the need to consider the influence of the temperature of the powder on the burning rate and muzzle velocity of the impact element. To increase the effectiveness of the application of non-lethal kinetic weapons, it is proposed to develop a set of ammunition for such weapons with different masses of powder charge, which would correspond to the ambient temperature and take into account the degree of protection of the object of weapon application by clothing items and the dependency of the burning rate of the powder on the temperature. The direction for further research is to study the influence of the hardness of the impact element of the non-lethal kinetic weapons on the results of its action on the target.