Nationally Determined Contributions Research Articles

Energy transition governance in the ASEAN: current status and future prospects

PurposeA study of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states’ (AMS) norm entrepreneurial practices regarding the energy transition to reveal insights into its current and future governance.Design/methodology/approachUnderstanding why the notion of an energy transition has garnered support, and importantly, knowing what this means for the future requires reviewing the forces of norm entrepreneurship at play. By adopting a constructivist lens, this article undertakes a comparative analysis of the “modes of transmission” of the energy transition amongst AMS.FindingsASEAN nations have in many respects been at the vanguard of the energy transition. Yet the governments themselves demonstrate both norm entrepreneurial and antipreneurial characteristics. Notwithstanding this mix, there are extant opportunities for “intraconnection” – in the form of cooperation between AMS and “interconnection” – in the form of cooperation between AMS and other state and non-state actors.Practical implicationsThis article underscores the importance of partnerships in the energy transition: both in enabling AMS to meet their respective nationally determined contributions (NDCs) but also crucially in catalysing action amongst a broader swathe of countries.Originality/valueApplying the lens of norm entrepreneurship to the ASEAN context, including introducing novel conceptions of “conductive” practices that drive the energy transition and “resistive” practices that slow it down.

An Analysis of the IMF’s International Carbon Price Floor

Abstract The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has proposed an International Carbon Price Floor (ICPF) arrangement among six major emitting economies (the US, EU, UK, Canada, China, and India) to scale up global climate mitigation action. Our quantitative analysis of the IMF’s ICPFs indicates that, compared to the committed policies of National Determined Contributions (NDCs), differentiated price floors are non-binding for developed countries – and therefore have a limited impact on their climate actions. However, for developing countries (e.g. China and India), the ICPFs effectively translate into substantial increases in carbon prices. Essentially, the ICPFs place additional responsibilities of emission reductions and economic costs fully on China and India. Given this gap between the participation incentives of developed and developing economies, we believe that the ICPF arrangement, in its current form, is unlikely to be adopted by major economies. To address this, we recommend that the IMF devote efforts to: (1) estimating the price equivalents of non-price policy instruments, as well as re-calibrating the desirable floors for broadly defined carbon prices; and (2) considering options to redistribute the economic benefits between developed and developing countries by increasing the availability of climate mitigation funds and low-carbon technologies to developing countries.

Bridging the implementation gap for climate mitigation in ASEAN: a comprehensive capacity-building framework

PurposeThe paper systematically examines the capacity building needs of energy and climate stakeholders in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It looks at conditions and opportunities for improvements in institutional, organisational, technological, innovation and financing capacities. This paper provides a guide to concrete capacity building programs and implementations to accelerate the implementation of National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and low-carbon energy transition in the ASEAN region.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes a comprehensive capacity-building framework, drawing on transition management theory and the interactive systems framework for capacity building. The assessment is based on interviews with representatives of the ministry responsible for energy policy and the ministry responsible for climate policy in each ASEAN country, as well as a survey among a broader set of Southeast Asian energy and climate experts from academia, think tanks and international development partners.FindingsThe paper identifies the priority areas for capacity building for each ASEAN country and the region as a whole. Each country has a unique set of needs and priorities. At the regional level, the widest capacity gaps were observed in institutional capacity, technical capacity, human resources capacity, financing capacity and the capacity to develop policy and legislation. Specific gaps for capacity building are discussed in delivering strategic areas of energy transition, such as electrification of transportation, development of the green supply chain, deploying renewable energy, energy efficiency, strengthening finance and investment and reducing dependencies on fossil fuels.Originality/valueThis paper helps fill the gap for detailed capacity needs analysis and facilitates long-term plans/strategies and their implementation. The insights help to increase ASEAN energy and climate stakeholders’ understanding of the interaction between energy and climate, therefore enhanced capability in developing more effective action maps and intervention points in achieving NDCs and sustainable development goals.

Energy policy implications of Ecuador’s NDC

In the third national communication submitted by Ecuador, the total greenhouse gases (GHG) emission was calculated at 80,627 GgCO2-eq, considering the country’s commitment to the Framework on Climate Change. In 2018, Ecuador ratified its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to reduce its GHG emissions by 11.87% from the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2025. The macroeconomic impacts of NDC implementation in the energy sector are discussed. A Computable Equilibrium Model applied to Ecuador (CGE_EC) is used by developing scenarios to analyze partial and entry implementation, as well as an alternative scenario. Shocks in exogenous variables are linked to NDC energy initiatives. So, the NDC’s feasibility depends on guaranteeing the consumption of hydropower supply, either through local exports or domestic demand. In the last case, the government’s Energy Efficiency Program (PEC) and electricity transport have important roles, but the high levels of investment required and poor social conditions would impair its implementation. NDC implementation implies a GDP increase and price index decrease due to electricity cost reductions in the productive sector. These conditions depend on demand-supply guarantees, and the opposite case entails negative impacts on the economy. The alternative scenario considers less dependence on the external market, achieving higher GDP, but with only partial fulfillment of the NDC goals.

The 4A climate action framework

Climate action under the Paris Agreement (PA) requires a strategic approach that addresses the climate action needs of the participating countries. The most relevant documents for identifying such needs are the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by the parties to the PA. Academia has paid insufficient attention to this dataset and has attempted to clarify climate action pathways by utilizing various established theories from different fields. As a result, a strategic framework for global climate action is lacking. This article examines the NDCs of 19 lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to consolidate their climate action needs into a cohesive framework. A grounded theory approach with process coding techniques is employed, and the data are analyzed through three coding cycles: initial process coding, focused process coding, and conceptual process coding. The results suggest a 4 A cyclic process: assess, arrange, access, and action, which forms an integrated global response to climate change.

Soil organic carbon stocks as driven by land use in Mato Grosso State: the Brazilian Cerrado agricultural frontier

To address national and global demand for agro-based products, agricultural expansion has rapidly become a norm in Brazil since 1950s to date. In recent decades, agricultural expansion and technological advancement have placed the country among the top producers and exporters of agricultural products. The paradigm shifts in farming system from conventional to integrated approach has brought significant changes in land use, which consequently influenced carbon sequestration and soil organic carbon (SOC). This is more prevalent in the State of Mato Grosso, one of the most producers of food in Brazil. On this background, we hypothesized that though forests have potential for SOC stock, which decreases due to conversion to cropland but in longer-term with sustainable management, carbon might accrual significantly in cropland. Therefore, this paper aimed to unveil the nexus between long term land use and carbon stock changes and estimate future SOC stocks in Mato Grosso State of Brazil. To achieve this aim, a hybridization of machine learning and the InVEST prediction models was applied to estimate the land use changes and the SOC stocks between 1990 and 2020 and estimate for 2050. The study revealed that between 1990, 2020, and 2050, croplands increased significantly by at least 78%, pastures decreased by 32%, while forests decreased marginally by about 4% due to agricultural expansions. However, in 1990 and 2020, the SOC stock was slightly up to 147.34 Mg ha−1, it recorded an increase after a longer-time (i.e., in 2050). This increase was substantially under the forests, and marginally in the croplands. Climate-smart agricultural systems such as crop-livestock forest, integrated crop-livestock, and other conservation agricultural practices have great potential to contribute to sustainable development by increasing the levels of carbon in agricultural soils especially, after a longer period. Therefore, agricultural policies geared towards low carbon agriculture should be fully integrated into the various government decision making processes as this will guarantee food security and maximize soil carbon sequestration and stocks in the long term. Simultaneously, it is crucial to promote the dissemination of best practices for implementing and sustaining conservation efforts, thereby safeguarding the carbon stocks established to prevent their depletion. This will also support the Brazilian government in achieving its Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) through agricultural soils.

Stronger NDCs With Cities, States, and Regions: Recommendations for National Governments

Climate change poses an unprecedented threat to societies and ecosystems worldwide. Without the rapid reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the globe and bold action to reduce climate impacts, the world will face devastating consequences to be felt for generations to come. Yet current climate commitments are not in line with pathways needed to achieve net zero emissions and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries can significantly enhance the ambition of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through a more collaborative and integrated approach with subnational governments to fully align with the Paris Agreement goals. This document supports national governments in the facilitation of input from subnational governments in the NDC development process. It has been written with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 2025 NDC deadline in mind, but it will support countries beyond this milestone and can be considered a tool for designing all successive NDCs.

Основные направления и инструменты политики низкоуглеродного развития Бразилии

Brazil has a strong potential to achieve national climate goals and can also be an important decarbonization partner for other countries, especially in the supply of green hydrogen and critical raw materials for the production of new climate- neutral technologies. This article highlights the main tools and policies for Brazilʼs decarbonization and identifies potential areas in which the country can not only achieve its nationally determined contributions (NDCs), but also ensure innovative green economic growth. Low carbon intensity energy sources can ensure a low carbon footprint for industrial products, which can make goods more attractive in the face of increasing requirements and the introduction of measures such as the European Unionʼs (EU) carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Extensive deployment of renewable energy creates opportunities for the country to produce sustainable hydrogen, which will be in demand both domestically and globally. The main challenge for Brazilʼs decarbonization is its extensive agriculture, as well as widespread deforestation, the rate of which increased under the Bolsonaro administration. For agricultural products,which make up a large share of exports, deforestation regulations like those adopted in the EU would be a real barrier and could close European and other markets. The min- ing and processing of critical raw materials could be a potential breakthrough for the countryʼs economic growth due to the widespread decarbonization of the global economy. The low carbon intensity of the countryʼs industry, including mining, due to renewable energy sources appears to be a significant advantage. Lulaʼs return has given the international community hope that, at least in forestry and agriculture, significant efforts can be expected from Brazil, including international support, financing, and auditing.

Coal Phase-Out and Carbon Tax Analysis with Long-Term Planning Models: A Case Study for the Chilean Electric Power System

Large CO2 emissions constitute a significant problem today due to their effect on climate change, and the need to design appropriate energy policies to mitigate their consequences and reduce emissions requires a detailed analysis of one of the main sources of such emissions: the electricity system. Thus, this paper presents a study on the effects of energy policies on decarbonization by comparing the detailed phase-out of coal-fired power plants across a range of cases with the implementation of a carbon tax to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The case study focuses on the Chilean electricity system, using a long-term generation and transmission expansion planning model (GTEP) that incorporates a wide range of generation technologies. The study examines the long-term effects of these policies, including costs, investments, and CO2 emissions, as well as their impact on consumer prices reflected in the marginal costs of the system. The transmission system modeling covers various regions of Chile and significant projections for renewable energy sources. It evaluates three economic scenarios based on generation technology costs, fuel prices, and electricity demand under four different closure schemes and fourteen different carbon tax levels. The results indicate that implementing a carbon tax can be more cost-effective for the system than the implementation of a phase-out schedule for coal plants, taking the form of reduced CO2 emission and overall system costs, with an optimal carbon tax value of 37 USD/tCO2. Additionally, the study reveals significant effects on consumer prices, showing that a carbon tax as an energy policy leads to lower prices compared to a phase-out scheme.

Contestation in social acceptance of direct air capture (DAC) technologies in Korea by differing framings over governance principles

Recently, DAC technologies have been recognized as a viable innovation in Korea’s mitigation efforts. In 2023, while formulating a specific implementation plan to meet the national mitigation target in Korea’s 2030 nationally determined contribution (NDC), the government considered setting a separate mitigation target for DAC technologies alongside the existing target for carbon capture, storage, and utilization (CCUS) technologies. During government-wide meetings, a clear divide emerged between supporters and opponents. Despite strong demand from supporters, the final national implementation plan did not include a mitigation target for DAC technologies. Focusing on this contestation, this paper explores why setting a separate target for DAC technologies was contested and not accepted at the policy-drafting stage. From the theoretical ground of social acceptance of new and innovative technologies, this paper utilizes four governance principles as social norms with which stakeholders understand and interpret DAC technologies, and analyzes differing framings on DAC technologies. Research results show that dominant framing approaches, hindering the establishment of a DAC technology-specific mitigation target, are i) risks of considering short-term and binding targets in commensurate with long-term targets through DAC technologies, ii) the uncertainty of mitigation potentials by technologically and methodologically under-developed DAC technologies, and iii) the inefficiency of financial investment for DAC technologies. This paper concludes with policy recommendations, emphasizing the need to establish binding short- and mid-term targets in alignment with the 2050 long-term target, government support for technology demonstrations, methodological assistance for leveraging carbon markets, and a redefinition of the relationship between CCUS and DAC technologies.

Making and breaking promises: must a country harmonize its climate pledges and policies?

ABSTRACT It is easy to put words on paper; it is harder to put them into practice. This is evidenced by the frequent discrepancy between a country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and its actual climate policies. In this article, we examine whether such disharmony should be criticized. We first provide a taxonomy of types of disharmony. We then examine various problems with settling the case for a strong norm of harmonization by simply referring to the general principle that commitments ought to be kept. This opens the door to paying more attention to the long-term effects of such a norm on emission reductions. In conclusion, we call for nuance in expecting countries to harmonize their NDCs and national policies. While climate policy offers the perfect test case for this normative examination, many of our arguments could be adapted to other areas in which deviations between international commitments and domestic policies arise.

Nigeria's Climate Change Act, conditional and unconditional nationally determined contributions, and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities

The commitments outlined in Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) are crucial for fulfilling the country's obligations under the Paris Agreement. The updated NDC reaffirms the Nigerian government's pledge to achieve a 20 per cent unconditional reduction and a 47 per cent conditional reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. To implement these commitments nationally, the Nigerian government enacted the Climate Change Act of Nigeria in 2021. However, the Climate Change Act does not explicitly incorporate the 20 per cent unconditional and 47 per cent conditional reduction targets from Nigeria's NDC. This article examines the implications of the Climate Change Act not directly recognizing these NDC targets and explores the legal status of NDCs at the national level. The assessment reveals that, despite the absence of explicit recognition in the Climate Change Act, the Nigerian government is legally obligated to achieve 20 per cent unconditional emission reduction by 2030. This is because the 20 per cent unconditional obligation is grounded in the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR). Conversely, the Nigerian government does not have a legally binding obligation to the 47 per cent conditional emission reduction targets, as achieving this reduction depends on international support.

Bridging the Gap between Policy and Net-Zero Realization in Indonesia: An Outlook of Available Approaches

Abstract Indonesia has been ambitious with its efforts to tackle climate change and achieve net zero carbon emission. This is reflected by the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that has been defined by the Government and presented during the Copenhagen Accord, Paris Agreement, and Glasgow Climate Pact. In realization, Indonesia has also pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emission by 2060, especially in the energy sector. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR/KESDM) of Indonesia has published its plan to achieve said targets through diversification and intensification of new and renewable energy resources. New and renewable energy bill is also currently being discussed in Indonesia’s House of Representative (DPR-RI). However, the reality is that the country is facing several challenges in meeting its targets, and the plans and targets set by the government in the energy sector are not being achieved. In this paper, we analyze the factors that have hindered the implementation of Indonesia’s energy transition plan and suggest potential solutions for filling the gaps. To achieve the NDC, we suggest that Indonesia must identify new resources and intensify the use of existing resources. Additionally, the paper provides recommendations on energy market policy that can help to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. This paper would provide a future outlook on Indonesia’s energy policy and energy market. by adopting new energy technologies, increasing investment in renewable energy, and developing policies that support the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our analysis highlights the importance of addressing the challenges faced by Indonesia’s energy sector and the need for a comprehensive strategy that takes into account the complex interplay of factors that affect the energy transition process.

Sustainable Behavior in Climate Pledges: An Analysis of Top Emitters’ Strategies

This paper is the first to analyze if and how countries are using their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to shift citizens toward more pro-climate behavior changes.

Modelling the green transition of the Chinese economy

This paper develops a stock–flow consistent (SFC) macroeconomic model with an energy sector for China to investigate the effect of green policies on green transition and the economy. We provide an analytical solution for green transition that illustrates the relative cost of using conventional energy with respect to renewable energy to determine the share of renewable energy and how the development of the energy sector promotes green transition. Our solution also demonstrates the necessity of green policies for a green transition. We calibrate the model to the national determined contributions (NDCs) scenarios from the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and run simulations from 2019 to 2035. The results show carbon taxes stimulate green transition but have a negative impact on the economy, accompanied by a reduction in economic growth, current account deficit and a rise in inflation. Carbon taxes deteriorate firms’ balance sheets. Governments benefit from carbon taxes in the short run but face a higher public debt to GDP ratio in the long run. Carbon taxes reduce carbon intensity and carbon emissions. We also compared the effect of green fiscal policy to conventional fiscal policies financed by carbon taxes (carbon rebate). Green subsidies benefit economic growth more effectively. They reduce inflation caused by carbon taxes and stimulate the green transition further.

Questioning Sustainable Environmental Policies and Practices in Indonesia: Would Durkheim’s Structural Functionalism Theory Have a Relevance?

Indonesia, as a signatory to the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, is committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These commitments, outlined in Law Number 16 of 2016, include limiting global temperature rise, setting Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets, and developing a long-term strategy for net zero emissions by 2050. To meet these obligations, the Indonesian government has introduced Carbon Economic Value (CEV) policies through Presidential Regulation Number 98 of 2021. These policies aim to reduce GHG emissions by implementing carbon pricing mechanisms such as carbon trading, levies, and performance-based payments. However, the implementation of CEV policies has faced various reactions, including criticism and resistance. Despite these challenges, it's imperative not to hinder the policy's implementation, given its potential to drive significant societal and lifestyle changes towards a greener future. This study analyzes Indonesia's progress in reducing GHG emissions through CEV policies. Using normative legal research and qualitative analysis, it explores the positive impacts of these policies, including their alignment with structural functionalism theory. The study highlights that the implementation of CEV policies as an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia through carbon trading mechanisms, carbon taxes, and funding partnerships with developed countries aligns with structural functionalism theory according to Emile Durkheim. This is evidenced by the existence of a clear system (legal and governance) in implementing CEV policies, including regulators (Government), implementers (SOEs, private sector, and society), supervisors (UNFCCC), and program donors (World Bank, IMF), where each entity cooperates in an organized manner in accordance with the provisions of the Paris Agreement 2015 and Presidential Regulation 98 of 2021 continuously according to their respective tasks. This policy also brings about functional social change by promoting a harmonious balance to shift dependence away from fossil fuels towards more environmentally friendly Renewable Energy sources.

Improving soil carbon estimates of Philippine mangroves using localized organic matter to organic carbon equations

BackgroundSoutheast Asian (SEA) mangroves are globally recognized as blue carbon hotspots. Methodologies that measure mangrove soil carbon stock (SCS) are either accurate but costly (i.e., elemental analyzers), or economical but less accurate (i.e., loss-on-ignition [LOI]). Most SEA countries estimate SCS by measuring soil organic matter (OM) through the LOI method then converting it into organic carbon (OC) using a conventional conversion equation (%Corg = 0.415 * % LOI + 2.89, R2 = 0.59, n = 78) developed from Palau mangroves. The local site conditions in Palau does not reflect the wide range of environmental settings and disturbances in the Philippines. Consequently, the conventional conversion equation possibly compounds the inaccuracies of converting OM to OC causing over- or under-estimated SCS. Here, we generated a localized OM-OC conversion equation and tested its accuracy in computing SCS against the conventional equation. The localized equation was generated by plotting % OC (from elemental analyzer) against the % OM (from LOI). The study was conducted in different mangrove stands (natural, restored, and mangrove-recolonized fishponds) in Oriental Mindoro and Sorsogon, Philippines from the West and North Philippine Sea biogeographic regions, respectively. The OM:OC ratios were also statistically tested based on (a) stand types, (b) among natural stands, and (c) across different ages of the restored and recolonized stands. Increasing the accuracy of OM-OC conversion equations will improve SCS estimates that will yield reasonable C emission reduction targets for the country’s commitments on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.ResultsThe localized conversion equation is %OC = 0.36 * % LOI + 2.40 (R2 = 0.67; n = 458). The SOM:OC ratios showed significant differences based on stand types (x2 = 19.24; P = 6.63 × 10–05), among natural stands (F = 23.22; p = 1.17 × 10–08), and among ages of restored (F = 5.14; P = 0.03) and recolonized stands (F = 3.4; P = 0.02). SCS estimates using the localized (5%) and stand-specific equations (7%) were similar with the values derived from an elemental analyzer. In contrast, the conventional equation overestimates SCS by 20%.ConclusionsThe calculated SCS improves as the conversion equation becomes more reflective of localized site conditions. Both localized and stand-specific conversion equations yielded more accurate SCS compared to the conventional equation. While our study explored only two out of the six marine biogeographic regions in the Philippines, we proved that having a localized conversion equation leads to improved SCS measurements. Using our proposed equations will make more realistic SCS targets (and therefore GHG reductions) in designing mangrove restoration programs to achieve the country’s NDC commitments.

Impacts of Renewable Energy Transitions on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Dynamic ARDL Simulations

This study explores the dynamic relationships between renewable energy transitions and economic growth in Malaysia, with a specific focus on hydroelectric power, using the Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (D-ARDL) simulations. The research leverages extensive time-series data from 1988 to 2022 to analyze the impacts of hydroelectric and non-renewable energy consumption on the nation's economic trajectory. Our findings indicate a positive long-term relationship between hydroelectric power usage and GDP growth, highlighting renewable energy's pivotal role in sustainable economic development. Additionally, the study examines the short-term adjustments and the effectiveness of hydroelectric power in reducing dependence on non-renewable energy sources, which are crucial for achieving Malaysia's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) for 2030. The dynamic ARDL simulations provide nuanced insights into the potential future impacts of increased hydroelectric power usage, underscoring its dual benefits for economic growth and environmental sustainability. This research contributes to the understanding of energy transitions within the context of Malaysia's unique economic and environmental landscape, offering implications for policy and investment in renewable energy infrastructure.

Aligning NDCs with 1.5°C, Net Zero, and LT-LEDS

Since the Paris Agreement, subsequent COP decisions have increasingly encouraged Parties to align their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with 1.5°C, building on earlier calls to align NDCs with long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) “towards just transitions to net zero.” This research examines the characteristics that might constitute alignment of NDCs with national net-zero targets, the mitigation goals in LT-LEDS, and the collective 1.5°C goal, and summarizes the implications and recommendations for those designing NDCs and assessing their alignment.

Evaluating clean electricity transition progress across UK political pledges and G7 countries

The transition towards clean electricity is central to global decarbonisation. Countless metrics are used to assess national electricity transition efforts, which hinders understanding and comparison between nations or political party pledges. This study instead proposes three simple metrics: clean generation share, gross, and net carbon emissions intensity. It uses them to provide the first evaluation of the 2024 Clean Energy Mission (CEM) proposed by the UK's newly-elected Labour Government, which has strengthened ambition for wind and solar power capacity. We compare the CEM to previous political pledges, finding it could reduce national electricity generation emissions by 17 MtCO2 in 2030, equivalent to a two percentage point increase in the UK's 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). We also use these metrics to compare past efforts and future pledges across the G7 countries, finding that the CEM progresses the UK from having the lowest share of clean electricity in 2010 to the highest by 2030. The UK must increase its pace of clean electricity uptake and decarbonisation by a factor of 1.5–2 to meet its 2030 targets; compared to a factor 4–6 acceleration required by Germany and the US. The paper provides an innovative, simple and replicable framework for assessing the impact of political pledges or national targets for the power sector, and for comparing efforts to decarbonise electricity between countries and over time.