National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Research Articles

50 Years of PMEL Tsunami Research and Development

This article chronicles the 50-year history of tsunami research and development at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), beginning with the merger in 1973 of the Joint Tsunami Research Effort and PMEL. It traces the development of instrumentation and modeling that brought a better understanding of tsunamis and improved warning systems. The advantage of having observational engineering and flooding modeling under one roof are highlighted. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) research and development led to technology transfer to NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) that now operates and maintains 39 buoys and serves as real-time data distributor for other nations. This technology was also patented and licensed by PMEL to meet the needs of the international community. DART licensee Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) has manufactured over 60 buoys for eight different countries. DART data are essential for accurate tsunami warnings, so the global society benefits by receiving lifesaving information before the arrival of a tsunami. PMEL’s tsunami flooding modeling research led to technology transfer to NOAA’s tsunami warning centers, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and international tsunami preparedness communities. Short-term flooding modeling research was initiated at PMEL to improve NOAA tsunami warning operations to better serve US coastal communities. The same validated modeling technology was then applied to produce hazard maps for coastal communities in the United States and internationally through the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). Tsunami hazard maps are an essential first step in preparing a community for the next tsunami. Using these maps and other preparedness criteria, a community can become “Tsunami Ready” for the next event. Tsunami Ready has been adopted by the IOC as the global standard for preparedness of at-risk communities with total populations exceeding 890 million people.

Validation and inter-comparison of models for landslide tsunami generation

The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program convened a workshop in January 2017 to evaluate the present state of numerical models for the simulation of tsunamis generated by submarine or subaerial landslides. A range of benchmark tests were provided to participants, with three tests emphasized: (i) a laboratory submarine solid slide in a 2D horizontal tank, (ii) a laboratory submarine granular slide in a 1D flume, and (iii) a field case based on submarine slides which occurred in Port Valdez, AK during the 1964 Alaska earthquake. Nine landslide tsunami models configured with 21 different combinations of physical options were benchmarked, including: (1) hydrostatic models with no frequency dispersion, which include the nonlinear shallow equation models traditionally used for modeling coseismic tsunamis; (2) Boussinesq or one-layer weakly dispersive models; (3) Multi-layer or non-hydrostatic (i.e., dispersive) models; and (4) Full Navier–Stokes models. Model/data comparison indicates that the inclusion of frequency dispersion in model formulations is critical to obtaining physically reasonable results for the test cases considered. Because the importance of dispersive effects is unknown a priori for any given simulated event, the central recommendation from this work is that a model with at minimum a leading-order representation of frequency dispersion effects be used whenever possible for landslide tsunami simulations.

Uncertainty quantification for the Hokkaido Nansei-Oki tsunami using B-splines on adaptive sparse grids

Modeling uncertainties in the input parameters of computer simulations is an established way to account for inevitably limited knowledge. To overcome long run-times and high demand for computational resources, a surrogate model can replace the original simulation. We use spatially adaptive sparse grids for the creation of this surrogate model. Sparse grids are a discretization scheme designed to mitigate the curse of dimensionality, and spatial adaptivity further decreases the necessary number of expensive simulations. We combine this with B-spline basis functions which provide gradients and are exactly integrable. We demonstrate the capability of this uncertainty quantification approach for a simulation of the Hokkaido Nansei–Oki Tsunami with anuga. We develop a better understanding of the tsunami behavior by calculating key quantities such as mean, percentiles and maximum run-up. We compare our approach to the popular Dakota toolbox and reach slightly better results for all quantities of interest. References B. M. Adams, M. S. Ebeida, et al. Dakota. Sandia Technical Report, SAND2014-4633, Version 6.11 User’s Manual, July 2014. 2019. https://dakota.sandia.gov/content/manuals. J. H. S. de Baar and S. G. Roberts. Multifidelity sparse-grid-based uncertainty quantification for the Hokkaido Nansei–Oki tsunami. Pure Appl. Geophys. 174 (2017), pp. 3107–3121. doi: 10.1007/s00024-017-1606-y. H.-J. Bungartz and M. Griebel. Sparse grids. Acta Numer. 13 (2004), pp. 147–269. doi: 10.1017/S0962492904000182. M. Eldred and J. Burkardt. Comparison of non-intrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation methods for uncertainty quantification. 47th AIAA. 2009. doi: 10.2514/6.2009-976. K. Höllig and J. Hörner. Approximation and modeling with B-splines. Philadelphia: SIAM, 2013. doi: 10.1137/1.9781611972955. M. Matsuyama and H. Tanaka. An experimental study of the highest run-up height in the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei–Oki earthquake tsunami. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Review and International Tsunami Symposium (ITS). 2001. O. Nielsen, S. Roberts, D. Gray, A. McPherson, and A. Hitchman. Hydrodymamic modelling of coastal inundation. MODSIM 2005. 2005, pp. 518–523. https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim05/papers/nielsen.pdf. J. Nocedal and S. J. Wright. Numerical optimization. Springer, 2006. doi: 10.1007/978-0-387-40065-5. D. Pflüger. Spatially Adaptive Sparse Grids for High-Dimensional Problems. Dr. rer. nat., Technische Universität München, Aug. 2010. https://www5.in.tum.de/pub/pflueger10spatially.pdf. M. F. Rehme, F. Franzelin, and D. Pflüger. B-splines on sparse grids for surrogates in uncertainty quantification. Reliab. Eng. Sys. Saf. 209 (2021), p. 107430. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107430. M. F. Rehme and D. Pflüger. Stochastic collocation with hierarchical extended B-splines on Sparse Grids. Approximation Theory XVI, AT 2019. Springer Proc. Math. Stats. Vol. 336. Springer, 2020. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-57464-2_12. S Roberts, O. Nielsen, D. Gray, J. Sexton, and G. Davies. ANUGA. Geoscience Australia. 2015. doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12401.99686. I. J. Schoenberg and A. Whitney. On Pólya frequence functions. III. The positivity of translation determinants with an application to the interpolation problem by spline curves. Trans. Am. Math. Soc. 74.2 (1953), pp. 246–259. doi: 10.2307/1990881. W. Sickel and T. Ullrich. Spline interpolation on sparse grids. Appl. Anal. 90.3–4 (2011), pp. 337–383. doi: 10.1080/00036811.2010.495336. C. E. Synolakis, E. N. Bernard, V. V. Titov, U. Kânoğlu, and F. I. González. Standards, criteria, and procedures for NOAA evaluation of tsunami numerical models. NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. 2007. https://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/benchmark/. J. Valentin and D. Pflüger. Hierarchical gradient-based optimization with B-splines on sparse grids. Sparse Grids and Applications—Stuttgart 2014. Lecture Notes in Computational Science and Engineering. Vol. 109. Springer, 2016, pp. 315–336. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-28262-6_13. D. Xiu and G. E. Karniadakis. The Wiener–Askey polynomial chaos for stochastic differential equations. SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 24.2 (2002), pp. 619–644. doi: 10.1137/S1064827501387826.

Performance assessment of Tsunami-HySEA model for NTHMP tsunami currents benchmarking. Field cases

In this study, we present model results derived from the Tsunami Current Benchmarking Workshop held by the NTHMP (National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program) at Portland, Oregon, US, in February 2015 for the two benchmark problems dealing with field data. In this workshop, the Tsunami-HySEA model was used to perform the five proposed numerical benchmarks. The other three benchmarks, which are based on lab data, are the subject of a related paper (Macías et al., 2020). The results and comparisons with measured data for the two benchmarks which deal with field observations, described in the present paper, include: (1) Benchmark #2, impact of tsunami waves at Hilo Harbor, Hawaii, and (2) Benchmark #3, tsunami currents at Tauranga Harbor, New Zealand, both for data of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. The numerical results demonstrate that the Tsunami-HySEA model is able to accurately reproduce sea surface elevations and current velocities for both the benchmark problems performed in a reduced local domain as in the case of the complete scenario modeled from the source to Hilo Harbor on the Pacific Ocean.

Three Dimensional Landslide Generated Tsunamis: Numerical and Physical Model Comparisons

Tsunamis are one of the most catastrophic natural hazards that can devastate coastal regions. Most common mechanisms that generate tsunamis are undersea earthquakes and submarine landslides. However, in enclosed basins, such as fjords, reservoirs, and lakes, subaerial landslides can also generate devastating tsunamis with similar or worse consequences, because of a more efficient wave generation. Here, we present the validation of a three-dimensional (3D) numerical model, TSUNAMI3D, by comparing numerical results with a set of subaerial landslide laboratory experiments carried out in the large tsunami wave basin at the Oregon State University (OSU). Results obtained from the laboratory experiments show that subaerial landslides generate highly non-linear waves with complex wave patterns and runup, challenging existing numerical models. The 3D numerical model is first verified with a commercial code, FLOW3D, to obtain a compromise between the model’s spatial-time resolution accuracy and computational cost. Second, the 3D numerical model and the commercial code are validated with a set of OSU laboratory experiments comprising three different layouts or basin configurations, namely, fjord, curved headland, and basin-wide. Simplified material rheology and key parameters required for modeling subaerial landslides are defined. Numerical models’ relative errors are estimated and analyzed, and the models’ limitations are discussed. In general, numerical models’ relative errors are found to be acceptable in most of the validation tests except those tests located close to the wave generation region. Validation results confirm that the 3D numerical models with simplified landslide rheology can be used to understand and reproduce the complex non-linear wave propagation and runup generated by subaerial landslides. Thus, TSUNAMI3D can help assess tsunami hazards in communities located in proximity to potential subaerial landslides. Also, the set of physical experiments can be used for further numerical validation efforts, helping tsunami organizations, e.g., the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, to amend existing or develop better numerical models and thus, improve inundation/evacuation mapping products that would save lives and property.

Development and Validation of a Tsunami Numerical Model with the Polygonally Nested Grid System and its MPI-Parallelization for Real-Time Tsunami Inundation Forecast on a Regional Scale

We have developed a new numerical model suitable for rapid and wide-area estimation of tsunami inundation and damage. The model is based on the world-renowned TUNAMI code solving the two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equations, and enables one-stop simulation of the initial tsunami distribution based on a fault model, tsunami propagation and inundation, and damage estimation. It extends the configuration of the grid system from conventional rectangular regions to polygonal regions so that deployment of high-resolution grids can be confined to the coastal lowland, resulting in remarkably improved efficiency in computation and better precision. For the purpose of real-time implementation of tsunami inundation simulation using a high-performance computing infrastructure, vectorization and MPI parallelization have also been conducted. Moreover, the model was verified and validated through several benchmark problems that the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, organized by federal agencies and states in the U.S., developed as the quality standards for simulating and assessing tsunami hazard and risk. The newly-developed model is named “Real-time Tsunami inundation (RTi) model,” and its computational performance was examined using the SX-ACE, a vector supercomputer installed at Tohoku University. The results show that it requires only 128 cores of the SX-ACE for implementing six-hour tsunami inundation simulation with a 10-meter grid resolution within 10 minutes for the 700 km long coastline of Kochi Prefecture, Japan. This means that the RTi model is over 10 times more efficient as the conventional tsunami model with the rectangular domains, and it can be inferred that 2,451 cores of the SX-ACE are the overall computational resources needed for real-time tsunami inundation forecast on the whole coastal regions along the Nankai Trough subduction zone, corresponding to the computational performance of 170 Tflop/s. The resources required are equivalent to 24% of all the SX-ACE resources at Tohoku University, indicating the feasibility of real-time tsunami inundation forecast on a regional scale by using the RTi model. Since the Disaster Information System operated by the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government adopted a function of tsunami damage estimation using the aforementioned numerical model, at the end of this paper, a brief overview of the subsystem for rapidly estimating tsunami damage on a regional scale is described.

ESTIMATING METEO-TSUNAMI OCCURRENCES FOR THE US EAST COAST

Meteorological tsunamis, also called meteo-tsunamis, are significant ocean surface waves generated by atmospheric forcing. The waves typically result from energy transfer from atmosphere to ocean through the Proudman resonance phenomena, where translation speed of the storm system in the atmosphere coincides with the free wave speed of long surface waves. These tsunami-like waves can be hazardous, either through direct inundation of shorelines or through generation of harbor oscillations and other disruptions to maritime activities. The wide continental shelf bathymetry of the United States (US) East Coast provides a long potential fetch length for the resonant generation process, making the region particularly susceptible to meteo-tsunamis. In this study, we carry out a probabilistic analysis of potential meteo-tsunami hazard on the US East Coast, extending the earlier work of Geist et al. (2014) to include a wider range of storm conditions and additional response types including coastally-trapped edge waves. The work, carried out under the auspices of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), extends the previous efforts of Geist et al. to include a representation of inundation and maritime hazards in at-risk areas. The work is conducted using the fully nonlinear Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD (Shi et al., 2012), extended to include atmospheric pressure and wind forcing.

Performance Comparison of NAMI DANCE and FLOW-3D® Models in Tsunami Propagation, Inundation and Currents using NTHMP Benchmark Problems

Field observations provide valuable data regarding nearshore tsunami impact, yet only in inundation areas where tsunami waves have already flooded. Therefore, tsunami modeling is essential to understand tsunami behavior and prepare for tsunami inundation. It is necessary that all numerical models used in tsunami emergency planning be subject to benchmark tests for validation and verification. This study focuses on two numerical codes, NAMI DANCE and FLOW-3D®, for validation and performance comparison. NAMI DANCE is an in-house tsunami numerical model developed by the Ocean Engineering Research Center of Middle East Technical University, Turkey and Laboratory of Special Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Research, Russia. FLOW-3D® is a general purpose computational fluid dynamics software, which was developed by scientists who pioneered in the design of the Volume-of-Fluid technique. The codes are validated and their performances are compared via analytical, experimental and field benchmark problems, which are documented in the ‘‘Proceedings and Results of the 2011 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Model Benchmarking Workshop’’ and the ‘‘Proceedings and Results of the NTHMP 2015 Tsunami Current Modeling Workshop”. The variations between the numerical solutions of these two models are evaluated through statistical error analysis.

Performance Benchmarking of Tsunami-HySEA Model for NTHMP\u2019s Inundation Mapping Activities

The Tsunami-HySEA model is used to perform some of the numerical benchmark problems proposed and documented in the “Proceedings and results of the 2011 NTHMP Model Benchmarking Workshop”. The final aim is to obtain the approval for Tsunami-HySEA to be used in projects funded by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). Therefore, this work contains the numerical results and comparisons for the five benchmark problems (1, 4, 6, 7, and 9) required for such aim. This set of benchmarks considers analytical, laboratory, and field data test cases. In particular, the analytical solution of a solitary wave runup on a simple beach, and its laboratory counterpart, two more laboratory tests: the runup of a solitary wave on a conically shaped island and the runup onto a complex 3D beach (Monai Valley) and, finally, a field data benchmark based on data from the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki tsunami.

Validation of tsunami inundation model TUNA-RP using OAR-PMEL-135 benchmark problem set

A standard set of benchmark problems, known as OAR-PMEL-135, is developed by the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program for tsunami inundation model validation. Any tsunami inundation model must be tested for its accuracy and capability using this standard set of benchmark problems before it can be gainfully used for inundation simulation. The authors have previously developed an in-house tsunami inundation model known as TUNA-RP. This inundation model solves the two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equations coupled with a wet-dry moving boundary algorithm. This paper presents the validation of TUNA-RP against the solutions provided in the OAR-PMEL-135 benchmark problem set. This benchmark validation testing shows that TUNA-RP can indeed perform inundation simulation with accuracy consistent with that in the tested benchmark problem set.

Inter-model analysis of tsunami-induced coastal currents

To help produce accurate and consistent maritime hazard products, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program organized a benchmarking workshop to evaluate the numerical modeling of tsunami currents. Thirteen teams of international researchers, using a set of tsunami models currently utilized for hazard mitigation studies, presented results for a series of benchmarking problems; these results are summarized in this paper. Comparisons focus on physical situations where the currents are shear and separation driven, and are thus de-coupled from the incident tsunami waveform. In general, we find that models of increasing physical complexity provide better accuracy, and that low-order three-dimensional models are superior to high-order two-dimensional models. Inside separation zones and in areas strongly affected by eddies, the magnitude of both model-data errors and inter-model differences can be the same as the magnitude of the mean flow. Thus, we make arguments for the need of an ensemble modeling approach for areas affected by large-scale turbulent eddies, where deterministic simulation may be misleading. As a result of the analyses presented herein, we expect that tsunami modelers now have a better awareness of their ability to accurately capture the physics of tsunami currents, and therefore a better understanding of how to use these simulation tools for hazard assessment and mitigation efforts.

Performance Assessment of NAMI DANCE in Tsunami Evolution and Currents Using a Benchmark Problem

Numerical modeling of tsunami evolution, propagation, and inundation is complicated due to numerous parameters involved in the phenomenon. It is important to assess the performance of numerical codes that solve tsunami motion, as well as flow and velocity patterns. NAMI DANCE is a computational tool developed for the modeling of long waves. It provides numerical modeling and efficient visualization of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation mechanisms and computes the tsunami parameters. In the theory of long waves, the vertical motion of water particles has no effect on the pressure distribution. Based upon this approximation and neglecting vertical acceleration, the equations of mass conservation and momentum are reduced to two-dimensional depth-averaged equations. NAMI DANCE uses finite difference computational method to solve linear and nonlinear forms of depth-averaged shallow water equations in long wave problems. In this study, NAMI DANCE is applied to a benchmark problem which was discussed in the 2015 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) annual meeting in Portland, USA. The benchmark problem features a series of experiments in which a single solitary wave propagates up a triangular shaped shelf which has an offshore island feature. The problem provides detailed free surface elevation and velocity time series in the vicinity of the island. The comparison of the results showed that NAMI DANCE is able to satisfactorily predict long wave evolution, propagation, amplification, and tsunami currents.

Benchmarking an Unstructured-Grid Model for Tsunami Current Modeling

We present model results derived from a tsunami current benchmarking workshop held by the NTHMP (National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program) in February 2015. Modeling was undertaken using our own 3D unstructured-grid model that has been previously certified by the NTHMP for tsunami inundation. Results for two benchmark tests are described here, including: (1) vortex structure in the wake of a submerged shoal and (2) impact of tsunami waves on Hilo Harbor in the 2011 Tohoku event. The modeled current velocities are compared with available lab and field data. We demonstrate that the model is able to accurately capture the velocity field in the two benchmark tests; in particular, the 3D model gives a much more accurate wake structure than the 2D model for the first test, with the root-mean-square error and mean bias no more than 2 cm s−1 and 8 mm s−1, respectively, for the modeled velocity.

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami–tide simulations

This work is part of a tsunami inundation mapping activity carried out along the US East Coast since 2010, under the auspice of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program (NTHMP). The US East Coast features two main estuaries with significant tidal forcing, which are bordered by numerous critical facilities (power plants, major harbors,...) as well as densely built low-level areas: Chesapeake Bay and the Hudson River Estuary (HRE). HRE is the object of this work, with specific focus on assessing tsunami hazard in Manhattan, the Hudson and East River areas. In the NTHMP work, inundation maps are computed as envelopes of maximum surface elevation along the coast and inland, by simulating the impact of selected probable maximum tsunamis (PMT) in the Atlantic ocean margin and basin. At present, such simulations assume a static reference level near shore equal to the local mean high water (MHW) level. Here, instead we simulate maximum inundation in the HRE resulting from dynamic interactions between the incident PMTs and a tide, which is calibrated to achieve MHW at its maximum level. To identify conditions leading to maximum tsunami inundation, each PMT is simulated for four different phases of the tide and results are compared to those obtained for a static reference level. We first separately simulate the tide and the three PMTs that were found to be most significant for the HRE. These are caused by: (1) a flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (CVV) in the Canary Islands (with a 80 km3 volume representing the most likely extreme scenario); (2) an M9 coseismic source in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT); and (3) a large submarine mass failure (SMF) in the Hudson River canyon of parameters similar to the 165 km3 historical Currituck slide, which is used as a local proxy for the maximum possible SMF. Simulations are performed with the nonlinear and dispersive long wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, in a series of nested grids of increasing resolution towards the coast, by one-way coupling. Four levels of nested grids are used, from a 1 arc-min spherical coordinate grid in the deep ocean down to a 39-m Cartesian grid in the HRE. Bottom friction coefficients in the finer grids are calibrated for the tide to achieve the local spatially averaged MHW level at high tide in the HRE. Combined tsunami–tide simulations are then performed for four phases of the tide corresponding to each tsunami arriving at Sandy Hook (NJ): 1.5 h ahead, concurrent with, 1.5 h after, and 3 h after the local high tide. These simulations are forced along the offshore boundary of the third-level grid by linearly superposing time series of surface elevation and horizontal currents of the calibrated tide and each tsunami wave train; this is done in deep enough water for a linear superposition to be accurate. Combined tsunami–tide simulations are then performed with FUNWAVE-TVD in this and the finest nested grids. Results show that, for the 3 PMTs, depending on the tide phase, the dynamic simulations lead to no or to a slightly increased inundation in the HRE (by up to 0.15 m depending on location), and to larger currents than for the simulations over a static level; the CRT SMF proxy tsunami is the PMT leading to maximum inundation in the HRE. For all tide phases, nonlinear interactions between tide and tsunami currents modify the elevation, current, and celerity of tsunami wave trains, mostly in the shallower water areas of the HRE where bottom friction dominates, as compared to a linear superposition of wave elevations and currents. We note that, while dynamic simulations predict a slight increase in inundation, this increase may be on the same order as, or even less than sources of uncertainty in the modeling of tsunami sources, such as their initial water elevation, and in bottom friction and bathymetry used in tsunami grids. Nevertheless, results in this paper provide insight into the magnitude and spatial variability of tsunami propagation and impact in the complex inland waterways surrounding New York City, and of their modification by dynamic tidal effects. We conclude that changes in inundation resulting from the inclusion of a dynamic tide in the specific case of the HRE, although of scientific interest, are not significant for tsunami hazard assessment and that the standard approach of specifying a static reference level equal to MHW is conservative. However, in other estuaries with similarly complex bathymetry/topography and stronger tidal currents, a simplified static approach might not be appropriate.

Far-Field Tsunami Impact in the North Atlantic Basin from Large Scale Flank Collapses of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano, La Palma

In their pioneering work, Ward and Day suggested that a large scale flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (CVV) on La Palma (Canary Islands) could trigger a mega-tsunami throughout the North Atlantic Ocean basin, causing major coastal impact in the far-field. While more recent studies indicate that near-field waves from such a collapse would be more moderate than originally predicted by Ward and Day [Løvholt et al. (J Geophy Res 113:C09026, 2008); Abadie et al. (J Geophy Res 117:C05030, 2012)], these would still be formidable and devastate the Canary Island, while causing major impact in the far-field at many locations along the western European, African, and the US east coasts. Abadie et al. (J Geophy Res 117:C05030, 2012) simulated tsunami generation and near-field tsunami impact from a few CVV subaerial slide scenarios, with volumes ranging from 20 to 450 km $$^3$$ ; the latter representing the most extreme scenario proposed by Ward and Day. They modeled tsunami generation, i.e., the tsunami source, using THETIS, a 3D Navier-Stokes (NS) multi-fluid VOF model, in which slide material was considered as a nearly inviscid heavy fluid. Near-field tsunami impact was then simulated for each source using FUNWAVE-TVD, a dispersive and fully nonlinear long wave Boussinesq model [Shi et al. (Ocean Modell 43–44:36–51, 2012); Kirby et al. (Ocean Modeling, 62:39–55, 2013)]. Here, using FUNWAVE-TVD for a series of nested grids of increasingly fine resolution, we model and analyze far-field tsunami impact from two of Abadie et al.’s extreme CVV flank collapse scenarios: (i) that deemed the most “credible worst case scenario” based on a slope stability analysis, with a 80 km $$^3$$ volume; and (ii) the most extreme scenario, similar to Ward and Day’s, with a 450 km $$^3$$ volume. Simulations are performed using a one-way coupling scheme in between two given levels of nested grids. Based on the simulation results, the overall tsunami impact is first assessed in terms of maximum surface elevation computed along the western European and African, and US east coasts (USEC). Strong wave elevation decay is predicted over the wide USEC shelf, which is shown to be essentially due to bottom friction effects. We then show more detailed results for the USEC, which is the object of high-resolution tsunami inundation mapping under the auspices of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. In this context, we compare the maximum surface elevation predicted along the coastline for each CVV scenario and show that, besides the initial directionality of the sources, coastal impact is mostly controlled by focusing/defocusing effects resulting from the shelf bathymetric features. A simplified ray-tracing analysis confirms this controlling effect of the wide USEC shelf for incident long waves. Finally, we perform high-resolution (10 m) inundation mapping for the most extreme CVV scenario and show results at one of the most vulnerable and exposed communities in the mid-Atlantic US states, in and around Ocean City, Maryland. Such maps are being generated for all exposed areas of the USEC, to be used in tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation work.

Modeling of SMF tsunami hazard along the upper US East Coast: detailed impact around Ocean City, MD

With support from the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), the authors have been developing tsunami inundation maps for the upper US East Coast (USEC), using high-resolution numerical modeling. These maps are envelopes of maximum elevations, velocity, or momentum flux, caused by the probable maximum tsunamis identified in the Atlantic oceanic basin, including from far-field coseismic or volcanic sources, and near-field Submarine mass failures (SMFs); the latter are the object of this work. Despite clear field evidence of past large-scale SMFs within our area of interest, such as the Currituck slide complex, their magnitude, pre-failed geometry, volume, and mode of rupture are poorly known. A screening analysis based on the Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) identified areas for possible tsunamigenic SMF sources along the USEC, indicating an increased level of tsunami hazard north of Virginia, potentially surpassing the inundation generated by a typical 100-year hurricane storm surge in the region, as well as that from the most extreme far-field coseismic sources in the Atlantic; to the south, the MCS indicated that SMF tsunami hazard significantly decreased. Subsequent geotechnical and geological analyses delimited four high-risk areas along the upper USEC where the potential for large tsunamigenic SMFs, identified in the MCS, was realistic on the basis of field data (i.e., sediment nature and volume/availability). In the absence of accurate site-specific field data, following NTHMP’s recommendation, for the purpose of simulating tsunami hazard from SMF PMTs, we parameterized an extreme SMF source in each of the four areas as a so-called Currituck proxy, i.e., a SMF having the same volume, dimensions, and geometry as the historical SMF. In this paper, after briefly describing our state-of-the-art SMF tsunami modeling methodology, in a second part, we parameterize and model the historical Currituck event, including: (1) a new reconstruction of the SMF geometry and kinematics; (2) the simulation of the resulting tsunami source generation; and (3) the propagation of the tsunami source over the shelf to the coastline, in a series of nested grids. A sensitivity analysis to model and grid parameters is performed on this case, to ensure convergence and accuracy of tsunami simulation results. Then, we model in greater detail and discuss the impact of the historical Currituck tsunami event along the nearest coastline where its energy was focused, off of Virginia Beach and Norfolk, as well as near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay; our results are in qualitative agreement with an earlier modeling study. In a third part, following the same methodology, we model tsunami generation and propagation for SMF Currituck proxy sources sited in the four identified areas of the USEC. Finally, as an illustration of our SMF tsunami hazard assessment work, we present detailed tsunami inundation maps, as well as some other products, for one of the most impacted and vulnerable areas, near and around Ocean City, MD. We find that coastal inundation from near-field SMF tsunamis may be comparable to that caused by the largest far-field sources. Because of their short propagation time and, hence, warning times, SMF tsunamis may pose one of the highest coastal hazards for many highly populated and vulnerable communities along the upper USEC, certainly comparable to that from extreme hurricanes.

A protocol for coordinating post-tsunami field reconnaissance efforts in the USA

In the aftermath of a catastrophic tsunami, much is to be learned about tsunami generation and propagation, landscape and ecological changes, and the response and recovery of those affected by the disaster. Knowledge of the impacted area directly helps response and relief personnel in their efforts to reach and care for survivors and for re-establishing community services. First-hand accounts of tsunami-related impacts and consequences also help researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in other parts of the world that lack recent events to better understand and manage their own societal risks posed by tsunami threats. Conducting post-tsunami surveys and disseminating useful results to decision makers in an effective, efficient, and timely manner is difficult given the logistical issues and competing demands in a post-disaster environment. To facilitate better coordination of field-data collection and dissemination of results, a protocol for coordinating post-tsunami science surveys was developed by a multi-disciplinary group of representatives from state and federal agencies in the USA. This protocol is being incorporated into local, state, and federal post-tsunami response planning through the efforts of the Pacific Risk Management ‘Ohana, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and the U.S. National Plan for Disaster Impact Assessments. Although the protocol was designed to support a coordinated US post-tsunami response, we believe it could help inform post-disaster science surveys conducted elsewhere and further the discussion on how hazard researchers can most effectively operate in disaster environments.

Performance Benchmarking Tsunami Models for NTHMP’s Inundation Mapping Activities

The coastal states and territories of the United States (US) are vulnerable to devastating tsunamis from near-field or far-field coseismic and underwater/subaerial landslide sources. Following the catastrophic 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) accelerated the development of public safety products for the mitigation of these hazards. In response to this initiative, US coastal states and territories speeded up the process of developing/enhancing/adopting tsunami models that can be used for developing inundation maps and evacuation plans. One of NTHMP’s requirements is that all operational and inundation-based numerical (OI since they are considered as sufficiently comprehensive. Average relative errors associated with expected parameters values such as maximum surface amplitude/runup are estimated. The level of agreement with the reference data, reasons for discrepancies between model results, and some of the limitations are discussed. In general, dispersive models were found to perform better than nondispersive models, but differences were relatively small, in part because the BPs mostly featured long waves, such as solitary waves. The largest error found (e.g., the laboratory experiment case of a solitary wave on a simple beach) was 10 % for non-breaking wave conditions and 12 % for breaking conditions; these errors are equal or smaller than the thresholds (10 % and 20 %, respectively) defined by the OAR-PMEL-135 for predicting the surface profile; hence, all models examined here are deemed acceptable for inundation mapping purposes.

A simplified 3‐D Navier‐Stokes numerical model for landslide‐tsunami: Application to the Gulf of Mexico

A simplified three‐dimensional Navier‐Stokes (3‐D NS) model for two fluids, water and landslide material (mudslide) is presented and validated with standard laboratory experiments. Dubbed TSUNAMI3D (Tsunami Solution Using Navier‐Stokes Algorithm with Multiple Interfaces) is applied to a 3‐D full‐scale landslide scenario in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), i.e., the East‐Breaks underwater landslide. The simplified 3‐D NS model is conceived to be computationally efficient for tsunami calculations. The simplification is derived from the large aspect ratio of the tsunami waves (wavelength/wave‐height) and the selected computational grid that has a smaller aspect ratio. This allows us to assume a horizontal fluid surface in each individual cell containing the interface (air‐water, air‐mudslide, and water‐mudslide). The tracking of fluid interfaces is based on the Volume of Fluid method and the surfaces are obtained by integrating the fluxes of each individual fluid cell along the water column. In the momentum equation, the pressure term is split into two components, hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic. The internal friction is solved in a simplified manner by adjusting the viscosity coefficient. Despite the simplification to get an efficient solution, the numerical results agree fairly well with standard landslide laboratory experiments required by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program for tsunami model validation. The numerical effect caused by using a sharp versus a diffusive water‐mudslide interface for a full‐scale landslide‐tsunami scenario is also investigated. Observations from this experiment indicated that choosing a sharp or diffusive interface seems to have no remarkable effect at early stages of the tsunami wave propagation. Last, a large scale 3‐D numerical simulation is carried out for the ancient GOM's East‐Breaks landslide by using the simplified model to calculate the early stages of the tsunami wave propagation.

Improving Tsunami Forecast Skill Using Deep Ocean Observations

Tsunamis are an ever-present threat to lives and property along the coasts of most of the world's oceans. The Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, which killed over 230,000 people, compels us to be more proactive in developing ways to reduce tsunami impact on our global society. Since 1997, the United States has used a joint state/federal partnership to reduce tsunami hazards along US coastlines—the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. By integrating hazard assessment, warning guidance and mitigation activities, the program has created a roadmap and a set of tools to make communities more resilient to local and distant tsunamis. Among the tools are forecasting, educational programs, and design guidance for communities to become tsunami resilient. This article focuses on the technology required to produce accurate, reliable tsunami forecasts.