National Trend Research Articles

Predicting Wheat Potential Yield in China Based on Eco-Evolutionary Optimality Principles

Accurately predicting the wheat potential yield (PY) is crucial for enhancing agricultural management and improving resilience to climate change. However, most existing crop models for wheat PY rely on type-specific parameters that describe wheat traits, which often require calibration and, in turn, reduce prediction confidence when applied across different spatial or temporal scales. In this study, we integrated eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles with a universal productivity model, the Pmodel, to propose a comprehensive full-chain method for predicting wheat PY. Using this approach, we forecasted wheat PY across China under typical shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our findings highlight the following: (1) Incorporating EEO theory improves PY prediction performance compared to current parameter-based crop models. (2) In the absence of phenological responses, rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations universally benefit wheat growth and PY, while increasing temperatures have predominantly negative effects across most regions. (3) Warmer temperatures expand the window for selecting sowing dates, leading to a national trend toward earlier sowing. (4) By simultaneously considering climate impacts on wheat growth and sowing dates, we predict that PY in China’s main producing regions will significantly increase from 2020 to 2060 and remain stable under SSP126. However, under SSP370, while there is no significant trend in PY during 2020–2060, increases are expected thereafter. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers navigating the complexities of climate change and optimizing wheat production to ensure food security.

Spatial dynamics of inflation in India: an econometric analysis

ABSTRACT The study examines whether inflation convergence across various states in India exists after the adoption of the Inflation Targeting (IT) using monthly data during 2011M01-2021M12. Compared to pre-IT, the number of states shows a rise in convergence, while the median half-life period declines during the IT period. Concerning convergence, we find multiple convergence in both pre-IT and IT periods. However, the number of states following the national trend is much greater in IT than in the pre-IT period despite COVID-19. The present results help policymakers envisage the possibility of augmenting uniform monetary policy with region-specific inflation management measures.

The role of state-of-the-art IVF care as a marker of societal development.

Access to state-of-the-art ART can be viewed as a marker of societal development. The recent Alabama Supreme Court ruling represents a major local setback in the access to state-of-the-art ART. If this isolated local incident becomes a national trend, the USA will lose ground in this emerging area of healthcare, and its citizens will be left with substandard treatment options for the redress of infertility.

Pervasive Stagnation: Flat and Rising Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Post-2010 Across US States and Counties.

Since 2010, the U.S. has experienced adverse trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, which dramatically slowed long-standing life expectancy improvements. The extent to which the national trend in CVD mortality masks heterogeneity in trends across states and counties is poorly understood. We provide a detailed accounting of post-2010 trends in CVD mortality by U.S. state and county to understand how features of place relate to trends. We compare trends during 2010-2019 to that of 2000-2009. We observe flattening declines in CVD mortality in nearly every state at both midlife (ages 40-64) and old age (ages 65-84) across the two decades. Many states exhibited increases in midlife CVD mortality in 2010-2019. Old age CVD mortality was still declining in most states post-2010, although much slower compared to the previous decade. States in the Southeast recorded some of the fastest post-2010 declines in CVD mortality at old age. County-level median household income was associated with level of CVD mortality, but all income deciles, even the wealthiest counties, experienced stagnating CVD mortality declines. Findings highlight the ubiquitous nature of CVD stagnation, pointing to the need to identify risk factor affecting trends across regions and socioeconomic strata across the United States.

National Trend of Surgical Stabilization of Rib Fractures: Indications, Approaches, and Disparities

IntroductionRib fractures are among the most frequent injuries in trauma. This study aims to assess the current nationwide trends in operative rib fixation and identify predictors of surgical stabilization of rib fractures (SSRFs). MethodsA 5-y (2017-2021) retrospective analysis of the Trauma Quality Improvement Program database was performed. Adult trauma patients who had at least one rib fracture were included. We analyzed data regarding type of SSRF including open and thoracoscopic approaches and its trends. ResultsA total of 780,275 patients were identified, of which 15,339 patients (1.9%) were managed with SSRF. Trends of both open and endoscopic approaches were increasing during the study period. Patients with ≤2 rib fractures had a decreasing rate of SSRF. Flail chest (odds ratio = 13.42, P < 0.001) was the strongest predictor of SSRF. ConclusionsSSRF is gaining popularity in the management of chest trauma. The presence of a flail segment and multiplicity of rib fractures is among the predictors of SSRF.

Mortality of alzheimer's disease in Italy from 1980 to 2015.

To evaluate mortality for Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in Italy over more than three decades (1980-2015) and discuss the possible role of general and specific contributing factors. Mortality data were extracted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics: crude mortality rates were computed for sex and age, considering the whole country and its five main geographical sub-areas. Rates were standardized in two ways: directly (annual mortality rates AMRs) and indirectly (standardized mortality rates, SMRs). SMRs were then used to evaluate geographical differences; to study mortality trend, AMRs and joinpoint linear regression analysis were used. Considering the entire period and the whole country, mortality rates were similar for females and males and for geographical regions, with the exception of the older age groups where mortality for AD in females slightly prevailed. In these older patients, a steep increase of mortality was seen starting from the current century. The increase in male mortality mirrored the national trend in North-West and Central Italy, but not in North-East, South, and the Islands, where it did not surge until the mid to late 1990s. the general increase of mortality is in line with international data and it reflects the increasing prevalence of the disease, likely due to increasing longevity, and to improvements in diagnostic accuracy. In addition, the accuracy of death certificate compilation could account for both geographical and temporal differences. Currently available drugs for AD do not seem to have an impact on mortality rates.

Time series analysis of comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on comprehensive maternal deaths in Brazil have not been fully explored. Using publicly available data from the Brazilian Mortality Information (SIM) and Information System on Live Births (SINASC) databases, we used two complementary forecasting models to predict estimates of maternal mortality ratios using maternal deaths (MMR) and comprehensive maternal deaths (MMRc) in the years 2020 and 2021 based on data from 2008 to 2019. We calculated national and regional standardized mortality ratio estimates for maternal deaths (SMR) and comprehensive maternal deaths (SMRc) for 2020 and 2021. The observed MMRc in 2021 was more than double the predicted MMRc based on the Holt-Winters and autoregressive integrated moving average models (127.12 versus 60.89 and 59.12 per 100,000 live births, respectively). We found persisting sub-national variation in comprehensive maternal mortality: SMRc ranged from 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64, 1.86) in the Northeast to 2.70 (95% CI 2.45, 2.96) in the South in 2021. The observed national estimates for comprehensive maternal deaths in 2021 were the highest in Brazil in the past three decades. Increased resources for prenatal care, maternal health, and postpartum care may be needed to reverse the national trend in comprehensive maternal deaths.

Patterns and trends in melanoma mortality in Spain (1999-2022).

To examine melanoma mortality trends in Spanish Autonomous Communities from 1999 to 2022, focusing on gender and age differences. Data from the National Statistics Institute were used to calculate age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs). Joinpoint regression identified trend changes. Melanoma mortality varied significantly by region, gender, and age. Eastern Spain had higher male mortality, while western regions had lower rates. Asturias had higher female mortality, with lower rates in Andalusia, Extremadura, and Castilla-La Mancha. Men generally exhibited higher ASMRs than women, with variations across regions. While ASMRs remained stable in most areas, Madrid experienced a notable decline (AAPC: - 1.3%). A national trend reversal occurred in 2014 (AAPC: - 1.3%). For individuals aged 45-74 years, Catalonia saw a significant decrease (AAPC: - 1.1%, p < 0.05), whereas Andalusia experienced an increase (APC: 2.1% since 2007). Nationally, ASMRs for this age group declined (AAPC: - 0.7%). Among those aged 75 years and over, ASMRs varied considerably, with increases observed in Andalusia and Aragon. Nationally, male ASMRs rose (AAPC: 1.6% per year), while female rates were stable. Regional disparities were evident, with higher female mortality in the Balearic Islands and fluctuating rates in the Community of Madrid (an increase followed by a decrease after 2015). The gender gap in mortality varied across regions, with some areas showing a narrowing gap and others widening disparities. Continuous monitoring of melanoma mortality, especially among men and older adults, is crucial. Public health efforts should address regional disparities, improve early detection, and enhance treatment access to optimize outcomes nationwide.

The National Trend of Data of the Scale of Attitude Toward Culture of Living with Disaster Risk (SAC-LDR)

In this study, we analyzed data collected from an internet survey targeting Japanese citizens on the Scale of Attitude toward Culture of Living with Disaster Risk (SAC-LDR), which was proposed in our previous study. The scale quantifies respondents’ attitude toword living with nature and its risks, to examine how the SAC-LDR scores are affected by the respondents’ attributes, such as age or lifestyle, and frequency distributions and correlations between variables. We found that: (1) the SAC-LDR scores had a mean value of 41.1 out of 60 and displayed not a completely normal distribution, but a distribution with slightly long left tail; (2) the SAC-LDR scores had a high correlation with the Power to Live with Disasters, which represents individual traits favorable to surviving through disasters; and (3) the SAC-LDR scores displayed regional differences within Japan.

The ‘Stemming from the Heart’ Series of Cultural and Creative Designs

With the development of the Internet in recent years, ‘terriers’ have become ubiquitous around us and have been integrated into our lives. Just like the national trend, the ‘terrier’ trend has been unstoppable. This is the beginning of design, which is both design and life. The characteristic of ‘terrier’ itself is that it varies from person to person and from time to time. Its diversity makes its own meaning is very rich, through the design of the ‘terrier’ meaning presented in front of everyone, to achieve graphic visualisation, the overall design through the vector cartoon shape for fun design, so that everyone can easily understand and love. In this information age, we often even love to use emoticons, which can enrich and fully express our inner language, in a word, everything is in the words. The emoticons we design are also ‘terriers’ that the general public can use everyday, and they are more practical. When we chat, we no longer use crepe words, but cute and animated pictures, which may be able to bring our friends and family closer together. For today's emergence of a large number of hot ‘terrier’, new ‘terrier’ and ‘terrier’ meaning, can be searched in the APP, so that the ‘terrier The app allows you to search for the meaning of ‘terrier’ in the app, so that ‘terrier’ can be used more aptly and better integrated into our lives. At the same time, there will also be related emoticons pushed, so that the design is more closely linked. The final display uses neon lights, a ‘tide’ of influenza, making the design more contemporary. In the display, the cultural and creative products will look more trendy and energetic in this atmosphere. Therefore, design is an expression of trend and a display of life.

Magnitude, Extent, and Burden of Substance-use Disorders in West Bengal: Findings from the National Mental Health Survey (NMHS), 2016.

Substance-use disorders (SUDs) are a public health problem. The Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) and National Family Health Survey (NFHS) provide evidence of high usage. Hence, the National Mental Health Survey (NMHS) WB data were analyzed to estimate the prevalence, pattern, disability burden, and service utilization of SUD. The usual NMHS methodology was used. Four districts were selected, and thereafter, a multistage random sampling was done. The validated Bengali version of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) and other instruments like the Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), disability, and health care utilization modules were used. A total of 2,646 eligible members (age >18 years as per 2011 census) were interviewed. It was found that alcohol use as per MINI at least 3 drinks of alcohol within 3 hours on 3 or more occasions was 3.9%, and the weighted prevalence of alcohol-use disorder (AUD) and tobacco-use disorder (TUD) was 3.04% and 14%, respectively. The AUD and TUD prevalence was lower than the national prevalence, yet they were more prevalent in urban areas than in the national trend. The ratio of women to men suffering from AUD in WB (1:5) was one of the highest in the country (all India average 1:18). Also, the treatment gap of 89.2% was more than the national average. SUDs are an important public health problem in the state of WB, which requires further research, particularly among women, comorbid psychiatric disorders, and in urban areas.

Incidence and Dynamics of CRC Stage Migration: A Regional vs. a National Analysis.

Due to an increased rate of surveillance colonoscopy, we aim to determine the impact of stage migration on the incidence and overall survival (OS) of patients who underwent pathological staging of colorectal cancer (CRC) at our Health Network System. Two datasets were included: subjects from the tumor registry at a regional Comprehensive Cancer Center (n = 1385) and subjects from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) national database (n = 202,391). A significant increase in the diagnosis of CRC Stage 1 and 4 was observed, with a decrease in stage 2, and no change in Stage 3 in the National datasets (p < 0.01). There was an increase in Stage 4 CRC diagnosis, with a concurrent decrease in stage 2, and no changes in stages 1 and 3 in the regional dataset (p < 0.05). OS followed the expected and progressive decrease in OS by stage (from 1 to 4, p < 0.01). The present findings confirmed CRC stage migration in our Health Network System, along with a national trend conducive to an increased OS for early CRC stages.

The Inheritance and Development of “Intangible Cultural Heritage ” : A Case Study of Zhejiang Taizhou Embroidery

From the needle boneless lanterns in Xianju during the Tang Dynasty to the unearthed artifacts of Huangyan Lingshi Temple in the Northern Song Dynasty, to the carved embroidery of Haimen in the late Qing Dynasty, the history of embroidery in Taizhou has a long and profound history. After several generations of inheritance, development, and historical and cultural accumulation, Taizhou Embroidery has now become one of the artistic treasures of Taizhou culture and even Chinese culture. This paper then is to discuss how to promote Taizhou Embroidery from Zhejiang by using “big data” under the background of the “national trend craze”, and through research on the awareness of Taizhou Embroidery at home and abroad, it reflects the reasons for the necessity of promotion, the challenges faced by promotion, and the corresponding strategies for promotion.

Epidemiological characteristics of human rabies cases reported by sites in China from 2006 to 2022

BackgroundRabies is an incessant public health threat in China. The Ministry of Health implemented the Central Payment for Rabies Prevention and Control Project to assist with rabies prevention and control in a few representative provinces in 2006.MethodsData on human rabies cases reported by the National Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and national surveillance sites from 2006 to 2022 were collected, and statistical and multivariate analyses were then used to assess the effectiveness of current prevention and control efforts.ResultsDuring 2006–2022, a total of 2025 human rabies cases were collected by the national surveillance sites, with incidence rates far above the national average, but the incidence rate was consistent with the national trend. Human rabies cases demonstrated a dual peak distribution in terms of exposure and onset dates, with the peak exposure dates falling mostly in the spring and summer and the peak onset dates occurring mostly in the summer and autumn. Three danger categories are shown by the geographical distribution: high, medium and low. Dogs had a high infection rate (86.93%), with own domesticated dogs accounting for the majority of infections. The rates of post-exposure prophylaxis are not constant. The median incubation period was 71 days.ConclusionsVarious measures and policies implemented by the government have played a key role in reducing the incidence of rabies. To effectively prevent and control the resurgence of epidemics and halt the spread of the virus among host animals, it is imperative to prioritize and implement a robust dog management system, accelerate research and development of animal vaccines and improve the level of post-exposure prophylaxis.

Sampling Error of Mean and Trend of Nighttime Air Temperature at Weather Stations Over China Using Satellite Data as Proxy

AbstractMeteorological observations of surface air temperature have provided fundamental data for climate change detection and attribution. However, the weather stations are unevenly distributed, and are still very sparse in remote regions. The possible sampling error is well known, but not well quantified because we are lack of the adequate and regularly distributed measurements. The high resolution of satellite land surface temperature retrieval during night time provide a nice proxy for near surface temperature as both temperatures controlled by surface longwave radiative cooling and the nocturnal temperature inversion depress land‐atmosphere turbulent exchange. The sampling error of mean value and trend were assessed by comparing station point measurements (pixel of ∼0.01°) with grid (1°) mean and national mean from 2001 to 2021. This method permits us to make the first assessment of under‐sampling error and spatial representative error on both national mean and trend of air temperature during nighttime collected at ∼2,400 weather stations over China. The sampling error in national mean temperature is more than 3°C. The under‐sampling error due to lack of observation explains two thirds and the spatial representative error due to the difference between station and grid/regional mean elevation contribute the other one third. The sampling error in trend account for one third of the national mean trend. The urban heat island effect associated with urbanization around the weather stations (spatial representative error) can explain four fifths of the sampling error in trend, which is consistent with existing studies based on air temperature collected at paired weather station.

Evolution of Fentanyl Prescription Patterns and Administration Routes in Primary Care in Salamanca, Spain: A Comprehensive Analysis from 2011 to 2022.

(1) Background: The escalating use of opioids contributes to social, health, and economic crises. In Spain, a notable surge in the medical prescription of opioids in recent years has been observed. The aim of this work was to assess the consumption rate of fentanyl, categorised by the different administration routes, in Primary Care in the province of Salamanca (Spain) spanning the years 2011 to 2022, and to compare it with the national trend and with data from the US. (2) Methods: Doses per inhabitant per day (DHD) were calculated, and interannual variations, as well as consumption rates, were subject to thorough analysis. (3) Results: The prevalence of fentanyl use in Salamanca has doubled from 1.21 DHD in 2011 to 2.56 DHD in 2022, with the transdermal system (TD) as the predominant administration route. This upward trajectory mirrors the national trend, yet the rise in fentanyl use is markedly lower than the reported data in the US. This finding may be attributed to an ageing population and potentially inappropriate fentanyl prescriptions, i.e., for the management of chronic non-cancer pain and other off-label prescriptions. (4) Conclusions: The use of fentanyl in Salamanca, particularly through transdermal systems, doubled from 2011 to 2022, aligning with the national trend. Preventive measures are imperative to prevent fentanyl misuse and moderate the observed escalation in consumption rates.

Challenges and Technological Inclusion in Higher Education of the 21st Century

Purpose: Examining progress and developments in education aimed at developing digital skills and addressing contemporary demands of society, a multifaceted and ever-changing landscape is envisaged. From various perspectives and standpoints, efforts are made to find answers for a diverse and globalised society, characterised by ongoing social changes and constantly evolving tensions. Methodology: The methodology of the article is grounded in the reflective qualitative method. Sánchez Silva (2005) defines it as follows: "The reflective tradition privileges values, norms, and creates behavior patterns that favor an analytical and critical attitude aimed at reviewing and evaluating ideas, assumptions, theories, and conventional methods" (p.116). Moreover, according to Edmund Husserl (cited by Menéndez, 2012), reflection is fundamental in phenomenology, analyzing experiences in an organized way as one of its main tasks Results and Conclusions: The findings reveal a global and national trend towards advancing technology and enhancing competitiveness in both academic and professional realms. This trend is reflected in the adoption of innovative strategies and the fostering of relevant skills in various educational and corporate contexts. Moreover, there is an increase in collaboration between educational institutions and businesses, promoting a more participatory and collaborative approach to education and professional development. These initiatives align with sustainable development goals as they aim to drive inclusive and sustainable economic growth, as well as foster equal opportunities and innovation across society. Implications: This research provides implications for educational and government policy to continue to strengthen inclusion policies in higher education. Originality/value: This research offers novelty by reflecting on how technological inclusion impacts higher education.

Adaptations to COVID-19 by US abortion clinics: Analysis of Society of Family Planning survey data

ObjectiveAnalyze changes in abortion practices during the early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Study designSites recruited by Society of Family Planning participated in a longitudinal descriptive analysis comprising three surveys between February and October 2020. Average monthly total and medication abortion volume was analyzed by χ2 and linear regression. ResultsTotal average volume of abortion services did not change among participating sites (p = 0.79). Volume and proportion of medication abortion increased over the study period (p = 0.02, p < 0.01). ConclusionsThe early COVID-19 pandemic marked a shift toward medication abortion. ImplicationsOur findings are interlaced in a national trend predating the Dobbs ruling, likely accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Eight-Year Prevalence Trends of Lumbar Spondylolysis and Isthmic Spondylolisthesis in Adolescent Males: A Population-Based Study from a Nationwide Military Draft Medical Examination Database in South Korea

ObjectiveTo assess the national and regional trend in the prevalence of lumbar spondylolysis and isthmic spondylolisthesis for adolescent males in South Korea from 2015 to 2022. MethodsA total of 2,666,277 Korean adolescent males were routinely examined at regional Military Manpower Administration (MMA) offices. The data gathered from MMA were retrospectively collected to measure the prevalence and 95% confidence interval (CI) of lumbar spondylolysis and isthmic spondylolisthesis according to the year and region in South Korea. The Spearman correlation analysis was performed to assess the correlation between lumbar spondylolysis, isthmic spondylolisthesis, and several factors including height, weight, current smoking rate, and occasional and high-risk alcohol consumption. ResultsThe prevalence of spondylolysis per 10,000 individuals showed a gradual increasing trend from 2015 to 2022 On the contrary, the prevalence of isthmic spondylolisthesis per 10,000 individuals decreased over a consecutive 8-year period. There were no statistical differences in the prevalence of spondylolysis and isthmic spondylolisthesis between Greater Seoul and the countryside. The prevalence of isthmic spondylolisthesis was significantly correlated with occasional (r = 0.81, P = 0.015) and high-risk alcohol consumption (r = 0.86, P = 0.007). ConclusionsThe prevalence of lumbar spondylolysis among adolescent men has increased, whereas isthmic spondylolisthesis has shown a decline over a consecutive 8-year period. The trends in prevalence for both lumbar spondylosis and isthmic spondylolisthesis were similar across the regions in South Korea. Notably, there was a significant correlation between the prevalence of isthmic spondylolisthesis and the rate of alcohol consumption in adolescent men.

Trends in Operative Case Logs of Chief Residents in Surgery by Sex and Race: A 5-year National Study.

To examine case logs reported by general surgery residents and identify potential disparities in operative experience. A recent study of 21 institutions noted significant differences between the number of cases reported during general surgery residency by trainees who are underrepresented in medicine (URiM) versus trainees who are not URiM (non-URiM). This study also identified differences between female residents and male residents. We partnered with the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education to examine case logs reported from all accredited general surgery programs in the United States. This is the first time these data have been examined nationally. We examined total case logs submitted by graduating residents between 2017 and 2022. Group differences in mean reported case logs were examined using paired t tests for female versus male and URiM versus non-URiM overall case numbers. A total of 6458 residents submitted case logs from 319 accredited programs. Eight-hundred fifty-four (13%) were URiM and 5604 (87%) were non-URiM. Over the 5-year study period, URM residents submitted 1096.95 (SD ± 160.57) major cases versus 1115.96 (±160.53) for non-URiM residents (difference = 19 cases, P = 0.001). Case logs were submitted by 3833 (60.1%) male residents and 2625 (39.9%) female residents over the 5-year study period. Male residents reported 1128.56 (SD ± 168.32) cases versus 1091.38 (±145.98) cases reported by females (difference = 37.18, P < 0.001). When looking at surgeon chief and teaching assistant cases, there was no significant difference noted between cases submitted by URiM versus non- URiM residents. However, male residents reported significantly more in both categories than their female peers ( P < 0.001). Overall, URiM residents submitted fewer cases in the 5-year study period than their non-URiM peers. The gap in submitted cases between male and female residents was more pronounced, with male residents submitting significantly more cases than their female counterparts. This finding was consistent and statistically significant throughout the entire study period, in most case categories, and without narrowing of difference over time. A difference of 30 to 40 cases can amount to 1 to 3 months of surgical training and is a concerning national trend deserving the attention of every training program and our governing institutions.