National Savings Rate Research Articles

Savings behavior among immigrants and their U.S.-born children: A test of the culture-transplant model

The economic impact of immigration involves the movement of more than just labor and capital. Under the culture-transplant model, immigrants carry from their birth countries distinctive values and behaviors that they transmit to their descendants in their new countries. This study tests the model by examining the savings disposition of immigrants and their U.S.-born children. It finds a robust link between individuals’ savings and the national savings rates of their ancestral countries. In a midrange estimate, a 1 percentage-point increase in ancestral-country savings rates is associated with a 1 percent increase in retirement savings among second-generation immigrants. These results suggest that savings behavior has a cultural basis that persists in the generation after migration.

Determinants of Savings in Kenya: Time Series Analysis

With a steep fall in the national savings rate in developing economies attributed to external shocks and stagnation of economic growth, this study will investigate the key drivers that explain variations in the public savings rate in Kenya using time series data spanning from 1975 to 2020. Available published economic literature has only investigated the determinants of savings in industrialized economies while ignoring low-income countries. To estimate the main determinants of national savings in Kenya, the study will employ the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation technique coupled with time series secondary data. From the estimation result, interest rate, inflation rate, income levels and consumption levels have been identified as the key drivers of the saving culture in Kenya. Public and private policymakers need to identify ways of managing these drivers to promote a higher saving behavior in Kenya.

The nonlinear effects of ageing on national savings rate – An Empirical Study based on threshold model

Abstract Researching the past empirical studies, we find that the empirical results of using data from the same or similar stages of economic development tend to be very close; however, there will be some discrepancies when comparing the empirical results of data samples at different stages of development. In order to explain this phenomenon, a theoretical analysis is made on the regional differences in the impact of population ageing on national saving. By analysing the areas considered in this paper as being in different stages of economic development, the combined effects of population ageing on the national saving rate are different. In order to verify the above conclusions, the thresholds and threshold effects are estimated and tested through the threshold model. The results show that the impact of population ageing on the savings rate will be different due to different levels of economic development. When per capita income is below the threshold of 9001.69, population ageing has a greater negative impact on the national savings rate. When per capita income is above the threshold of 9001.69, the negative impact of population ageing on the national saving rate is smaller.

AN OVERVIEW OF VOLUNTARY PRIVATE PENSION FUNDS IN TURKEY

We provide an overview of the voluntary pension fund market in Turkey by starting with recent developments in the global pension markets and then focusing on the pension fund reform in Turkey and the following developments since 2003. Findings from the literature indicate that the reforms on the introduction of voluntary pension funds in Turkey have positive implications for the overall national savings rates and capital market development. Voluntary pension funds create extra income for beneficiaries after their retirement. However, redesigning the system in a simplified structure is necessary in order to increase participation, inclusion and also to ensure persistency.

The impact of savings on economic growth in a developing country (the case of Kosovo)

The correlation between savings and economic growth has been the subject of research for some well-known economists. This study provides further insight on such correlation by examining the case of Kosovo from both a qualitative and quantitative research methodology. The data used was from 2010 to 2017 and has been analyzed using the augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, Johansen cointegration tests, and Ganger causality test. The test of the unit root confirms stationarity, and the regression results showed that deposits have a significant positive impact on Kosovo’s economic growth, because savings stimulate investment, production, and employment and consequently generate greater sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, loans and remittances also help boost the economy of Kosovo through their direct impact on investment. This paper confirms that countries whose national savings rate is high are not dependent on foreign direct investment; consequently, the risk arising from volatile foreign direct investment decreases significantly.

Меры государственной поддержки экономики в странах Большой тройки Северо-Восточной Азии в период пандемии

Once at the epicenter of the original source of the coronavirus spread, the governments of China, the Republic of Korea and Japan introduced immediate administrative measures to isolate the population, which helped to effectively contain the spread of COVID-19 on their territory. The review shows that in the first half of 2020, due to policy of isolation in these Northeast Asia countries, there was a contraction of their economies. The subsequent dynamics of economic growth of the three Northeast Asia countries indicated structural differences in their economies. In the face of economic recession during a COVID-19 pandemic, the governments of Northeast Asia countries are applying stimulating economic policies, with Japan having the largest public spending with respect to its GDP, followed by the Republic of Korea and China. In China, the support for the economy is focused on fiscal policy measures, in the Republic of Korea – monetary and macro-financial policies, in Japan – a combination of policies’ various measures. In the context of a decrease in the coronavirus spread, mid-term estimates indicate that these three countries will be able to maintain positive economic growth rates while investment supporting of the green and digital technologies, including the support through the measures of economic policy. These support measures could have a short- and medium-term positive impact on the economies of the three Northeast Asia countries. However, for the purpose to localizing the pandemic in these countries large fiscal expenditures will contribute to the further growth of their public debt, thereby reducing the national savings rate, restraining the dynamics of their economic growth in the long term

Financial Integration, Savings Gluts, and Asset Price Booms

AbstractCapital outflows after financial integration can lead to simultaneous increases in the national savings rate and asset prices of an economy with substantial financing costs. Under autarky, firms invest in risky capital while facing a borrowing constraint that creates a need for precautionary savings. Financial integration provides firms with access to foreign risk-free assets and results in two effects: a substitution effect, whereby firms divert some investments to foreign assets and cause capital outflows; and a wealth effect, whereby they grow richer in equilibrium and thus demand more domestic capital. Savings gluts and asset price booms occur when the wealth effect dominates.

Political Stability and the Resolve to Save: The Case of Pakistan

Savings is potential solution to consume the scarce resources in an efficient way, which helps large scale production, improved productivity of the labor and result in increased economic development. The purpose of this study is to examine how macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth rate, income, inflation rate and interest rate affect gross national savings rate of Pakistan and how political stability influence the relationship between these four macroeconomic indicators and savings rate. Using 10 years macroeconomic data of Pakistan from year 2006-2015, multiple regression analysis technique was run and it was found that all four macroeconomic indicators significantly affects the savings rate. Income appeared to be strongest predictor in causing an increase in the savings rate. Although GDP found to be have an inverse relationship with savings rate. Political stability appeared to be non-significant in influencing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and savings rate.

An assessment of mortgage loan default propensity in Ghana

Credit market development requires appropriate credit assessment and default policies. This paper aims to examine the impact of household characteristics on mortgage default, using survey data collected from Ghanaian financial institutions.,Data were gathered using semi-structured questionnaires from customers of five universal banks in Ghana. A logistic regression was used to model the determinants of credit default propensity.,Contrary to established knowledge, the study shows that females are more likely to default on credit than their male counterparts. This is even more likely if the female is older, unmarried, divorced and financially illiterate and has lower educational attainments. These factors are associated with lower earning capacity, which increases default tendencies. The findings confirm that price instability (typified by excessive movements in inflation and exchange rates in addition to low national savings rate) are adversely linked to credit defaults. Borrower’s perception of constraints to credit access (such as collateral requirements, interest rate and loan size) influence credit default. Banks should be encouraged to invest in the financial literacy skills development of their customers to mitigate credit default tendencies.,The study is of practical value to credit officers and the development of the credit market in Ghana. A novel model is presented for assessing credit applications and developing credit default policies.,The research findings have not only expanded the frontiers of literature but also empirically examined the determinants of credit default propensity, which provides a basis for developing and improving credit default policy in the credit market.

Financial Deepening, Financial Intermediation and Nigerian Economic Growth: Time Variant Analysis

This study examines financial deepening, financial intermediation and Nigerian economic growth. The main purpose is to examine the relationship between financial deepening and Nigerian economic growth while the specific objectives are to examine the impact of interest rate, capital market development, rational savings, credit to private sector and broad money supply on the growth of Nigerian. Secondary data of the variables were sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1981-2017. Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as dependent variable while Broad money supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), National Savings (NS), Capital Market Capitalization (CAMP) and Interest Rate (INTR) was used as independent variables. Multiple regressions with E-view statistical package were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Granger causality test was used to determine the relationship between the variable in the long-run and short-run. R2, F – statistics and β Coefficients were used to determine the extent to which the independent variable affects the dependent variable. It was found from the regression result that Broad Money Supply, credit to private sector have position effect on the growth of Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product while National Savings, Capitalization and Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Gross Domestic Product. The co-integration test revealed presence of long-run relationship among the variables, the stationary test indicated stationarity of the variables at level. The Granger Causality Test found bi – variant relationship from the dependent to the independent and from the independent to the dependent variables. The regression summary found 99.0% explained variation, 560.5031, F – statistics and probability of 0.00000. From the above, the study concludes that financial deepening has significant relationships with Nigerian economic growth. We recommend that government and the financial sector operators should make policies that will further deepen the functions of the financial system to enhance Nigerian economic growth.

Financial Deepening, Financial Intermediation and Nigerian Economic Growth: Time Variant Analysis

This study examines financial deepening, financial intermediation and Nigerian economic growth. The main purpose is to examine the relationship between financial deepening and Nigerian economic growth while the specific objectives are to examine the impact of interest rate, capital market development, rational savings, credit to private sector and broad money supply on the growth of Nigerian. Secondary data of the variables were sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1981-2017. Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as dependent variable while Broad money supply (M2), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), National Savings (NS), Capital Market Capitalization (CAMP) and Interest Rate (INTR) was used as independent variables. Multiple regressions with E-view statistical package were used as data analysis techniques. Cointegration test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Granger causality test was used to determine the relationship between the variable in the long-run and short-run. R2, F – statistics and β Coefficients were used to determine the extent to which the independent variable affects the dependent variable. It was found from the regression result that Broad Money Supply, credit to private sector have position effect on the growth of Nigerian Real Gross Domestic Product while National Savings, Capitalization and Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Gross Domestic Product. The co-integration test revealed presence of long-run relationship among the variables, the stationary test indicated stationarity of the variables at level. The Granger Causality Test found bi – variant relationship from the dependent to the independent and from the independent to the dependent variables. The regression summary found 99.0% explained variation, 560.5031, F – statistics and probability of 0.00000. From the above, the study concludes that financial deepening has significant relationships with Nigerian economic growth. We recommend that government and the financial sector operators should make policies that will further deepen the functions of the financial system to enhance Nigerian economic growth.

Output volatility and savings in a stochastic Goodwin economy

Both the public and the academic discourse of the post-crisis era have produced most controversial views concerning adequate national savings rates. We add to this discussion by analyzing the role of the savings rate for the dynamics of an economy embedded in a turbulent environment. To this end we study the dynamics of a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model using a mix of analytical- and simulation techniques. Focussing on a region of the parameter space that exhibits multi-stability, we apply the stochastic sensitivity function technique and Lyapunov exponents to scrutinize the dynamics of the stochastic economic system. We find that the savings rate affects the sensitivity of the economic system, as well as the distribution of economic states. The sensitivity of the system is inversely related to the level of the savings rate. Specifically, we demonstrate that high volatility phases of the cycle vary as the savings rate is changed. For low (high) levels of the savings rate the stochastic Goodwin economy will remain relatively often in sensitive (robust) states. Our theoretical investigation suggests that strategies involving reasonably high national savings rates might help to avoid the negative welfare implications of sensitive and even chaotic income dynamics along the cycle.

China's High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies

China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, high savings mostly emanate from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occured during the transition from planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.

WHAT DETERMINES THE SAVING RATE IN WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES?

This paper presents the research of saving and its determinants in Western Balkan countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between various macroeconomic and demographic indicators, on the one side, and gross national saving rate in Western Balkan countries including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia, on the other side and, using the examples from available empirical literature, to develop the model which would produce the highest number of significant variables possible, given the available data. After the model is created, it is further tested for significance and typical statistical assumptions including autocorrelation, homoscedasticity, normality, cross-sectional independence and multicolinearity. Data used for the purpose of the statistical model are collected for the period between 2000 and 2015. Results obtained show GDP, GDP growth, gross domestic savings, domestic credit, inflation, urban population and total age dependency as statistically significant, while unemployment rate, deposit rate and investment rate are insignificant. According to the the model developed, Western Balkan countries should focus on contributing to their GDP’s, increasing productivity and per capita incomes, in order to improve the rate of gross national savings.

Determinants of different types of bank liquidity: evidence from BRICS countries

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the determinants of three different types of bank liquidity: funding liquidity, liquidity creation, and stock liquidity in emerging markets.Design/methodology/approachIt uses an extensive set of data from all the listed banks of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, collectively known as the BRICS countries, spanning the period 2002-2014. Multiple linear regression has been used to estimate the coefficients of the determinants.FindingsIn case of emerging markets, bank size is not a determinant of different types of liquidity, except funding liquidity. Besides, the recent financial crisis had an impact on funding liquidity as well as “cat nonfat” measure of liquidity creation but it did not affect “cat fat” measure and stock liquidity. The variation in funding liquidity is also explained by the profitability and the riskiness of the bank. Effective interest rate, national savings rate, and inflation rate are also the determinants of funding liquidity. Bank-specific determinants of liquidity creation include bank leverage and profitability, and macroeconomic determinants include stock market index, effective interest rate, and unemployment rate. The variation in stock liquidity of the bank is explained by profitability and price of stocks, trading volume, volatility of stock returns, and percentage change in real gross domestic product. Neither market capitalization nor stock market index is the determinant of stock liquidity of the banks.Research limitations/implicationsThis study uses the data from publically listed banks only.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study may be used by the policy makers and bank managers in the emerging markets to design better policies and to strengthen the banking system to avoid financial turmoil in future.Originality/valueMost of the existing studies focus on bank liquidity in developed countries and studies aiming on emerging countries are rare. The existing studies focus more on funding liquidity and liquidity creation but to the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the studies analyze the determinants of banks’ stock liquidity. So, this study bridges the above mentioned gaps by focusing on bank liquidity in emerging markets, and exploring the determinants of the stock liquidity of the banks.

The relationship between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa: An empirical study

ABSTRACTThis article examines the link between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa for the period 1980–2012. Taking the life-cycle hypothesis as our theoretical background and using Johansen co-integration that allows for hypothesis testing, the empirical results revealed a long-run relationship between savings, interest rates and financial sector development. We find an inverse relationship between the interest rate and savings, implying that South Africans are net borrowers because the income effect overwhelms the substitution effect. This in part explains the low level of savings in recent time. Important policy lessons for boosting the national savings rate are discussed.

The Influence of Macro Economic Factors on Mortgage Market Growth in Kenya

This study examines the influence of macro-economic variables on the growth of the mortgage market in Kenya. Panel data is collected for a 30 year period, from 1984 to 2013 on the outstanding Real Estate Loan Portfolio as the dependent variable and the macro-economic variables of Average Yearly Inflation Rate, Average Yearly GDP growth Rate, Average Yearly Exchange Rate, Percentage Informal Sector Employment, Treasury bill rate and National Savings Rate as the predictor variables. Regression Analysis was used and the study found no evidence of significant influence of inflation, average GDP growth rate, Treasury bill rate and national savings rate on total real estate loan portfolio. However, the study finds evidence of relationship between informal sector employment, the per capita income and exchange rate. However, the model showed that 81% of the variation in the dependent variable could be explained by the predictor variables.

Effect of China’s Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in the Next Decade: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis

Although the renminbi has appreciated over 30% against the US dollar since China launched exchange rate reform in the mid of 2005, the US Treasury Department still claims that the renminbi remains “significantly undervalued”. If that is true, how to adjust the currency effectively and rebalance the current account are challenges for the Chinese government. This paper explores the effect of alternative adjustments of China’s real exchange rate. Unlike previous simulation designs, this paper considers the formation mechanism of the real exchange rate. By assuming the same change in factor price during different periods and by using the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model, two different scenarios are simulated against the baseline. One scenario adjusts the macro-structural imbalance by decreasing the gross national savings rate in China, and the other adjusts the micro-structural imbalance by increasing the real wage rate of Chinese labor. The external imbalance is improved by both internal structural adjustments in the long term. The effect of macro-adjustment is more significant than the micro-adjustment. A real appreciation will be sufficient for China to improve its terms of trade and to change the export-oriented model into the demand-oriented model of development in the next decade.

Global Imbalances

Abstract Purpose of the article The aim of the paper is to analyze the global economic imbalances and factors that contributed to their deterioration in developed and emerging countries, primarily in the United States and China. The article assesses the main inevitable factors of the global economic imbalances that have driven the recent evolution of current account balances. In addition, the paper describes the theoretical framework of global imbalances and the relevant fundamental theories for better understanding in theoretical aspect of international economics and finance. Furthermore, provides overview of the fundamental causes and drivers of global imbalances, namely current account. Methodology/methods In relation to the subject and purpose of this paper have been used the logical methods of examination which mainly include analysis, correlation and regression analysis, abstraction, synthesis, induction and deduction, the methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics, comparative and empirical methods and the selected forecasting methods (causal prognosis methods). Scientific aim The global imbalances are considered as the most disputable and well known of the global current economic problem, which possibly explain the causes of the global financial crisis. The global financial imbalances were quite massive even before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. Therefore, the main scientific goal of this paper to analyse what is behind the current account imbalances in both countries, e.i. the USA and China. Findings The persistent current account imbalances reflected the imbalances in the world investment and savings ratios. Whereas the U.S. national savings rate kept falling, the Chinese savings rate rose. Current account imbalances will keep on growing due to a problem of insufficient global saving. Conclusions (limits, implications etc)The size of global imbalances has become narrow compared to the prior crisis’s level, but it did not vanish due to the implementation of global rebalancing process. Putting the current account imbalance to cooperation of all participating countries is strongly necessary. The policy response will need to involve many more countries, even G20 process, and coordinating this response will require considerable efforts of every party members.

Equity Versus Efficiency in the Design of the Tax Mix

It is frequently argued that it would be beneficial to move the tax mix towards greater reliance on consumption taxes, with offsetting reductions in income taxes. Proponents argue that this would increase the incentives to “work, save, and invest” and would help improve productivity growth. However, these claims rest on weak foundations and are not well supported by empirical evidence. Most studies have found that reducing personal income tax rates would have only a modest impact on labor supply and work effort. It is a fallacy to suppose that consumption taxes do not reduce work effort simply because they are not levied directly on income. The primary purpose of working is to earn income to spend. A higher consumption tax rate also reduces real after tax income, and dollar for dollar would have the same effect on the incentive to work as a flat income tax. In addition, when a higher sales tax rate is applied to services, it increases the incentive for “do-it-yourself” work to replace purchased services, which can range all the way from gardening to self-representation in court. This also leads to lower national productivity. The evidence that taxes have a significant impact on saving is also quite weak. In the case of people who are aiming for a certain level of investment income after retirement, a lower real after-tax rate of return on their investments forces them to increase their saving rate. Therefore, an income tax cut could have the perverse effect of reducing the national savings rate. Even if lower taxes did increase personal saving, it would be unlikely to have a significant impact on capital investment by Canadian corporations. The primary source of capital is from retained earnings, which are more than adequate for this purpose. A substantial portion of personal portfolio investment in stocks goes to foreign countries. By far the largest and clearest impact of changing the tax mix is on the distribution of income. Canada's GST is not a very regressive tax, as it has been offset by credits for low income people, and exempts basic necessities such as groceries and rent. However, unlike the GST, personal income taxes are highly progressive. Any shift in the tax mix away from income towards consumption taxes would therefore significantly reduce the overall progressivity of Canada’s tax system. In Canada, analysis of this issue has not placed much emphasis on fairness in taxation. In the United States, by contrast, leading legal scholars of taxation such as Barbara Fried, Alvin Warren and Reuven Avi-Yonah have viewed the policy question of fairness as central to the issue. The most credible estimates from economic models indicate at best a small positive impact on economic efficiency from changing the tax. Therefore, the positive impact on income would be too small to compensate most taxpayers, and middle income earners in particular are likely to be net losers from changes in the tax mix. Designing changes in the tax mix so as to make everybody better off is a complex task.