National Risk Register Research Articles

The National Risk Register 2023: some reasoned reflections

ABSTRACT We provide a constructive response to the recent National Risk Register 2023, highlighting a number of generic issues. These primarily include reflections on the deployed methodology, and its possible biases. We suggest that the National Risk Register should be extended to adopt a whole systems perspective, reasoning that it is unlikely that the acute risks will each occur in an isolated way, and additionally there may be (non-risk) precursor contexts and events which might amplify many acute risks and/or nullify planned responses. We discuss some potential causes of a lack of national resilience; and some possible generic failures in acute risk response. We make a number of recommendations for consideration by HM Government.

Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy

AbstractThis article takes stock of the literature that is advancing knowledge about how to classify, organize and think about existential risks and globally catastrophic risks altogether. It then points out policy implications from this literature and applies those implications to a short case study on the National Risk Register, a comprehensive risk policy in the United Kingdom. In doing so, it names three broad systems that have emerged in the literature, which are those that organize risks by (1) consequences of risks, (2) sources or causes of risks and (3) risk processes and interactions with human systems. Organizing risks by consequences aids in risk prioritization, while classifying risks by source or cause aids in risk prevention and mitigation. Analysing risk processes and interactions with human systems opens the policy frame to broader policies of risk response and resilience.

Connecting Risk Management Theory and Practice on the Frontline of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: The Experience of the West Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service in the United Kingdom

Risk management is fundamental to the pursuit of climate change adaptation, particularly in public sectors, through integrated cross-sectoral policies and government planning. This integration with Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction is a way of transforming policies into local actions. Climate emergencies are explored as a potential risk to one public sector, the Fire and Rescue Services, due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-related incidents (floods and wildfires). The research assesses Britain's national policies on climate adaptation, which have developed significant environmental research and legislation since 1997: the Civil Contingencies Act (2004), Climate Change Act (2008), Climate Change Risk Assessment (2012) and periodically the National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. From interviews with West Yorkshire firefighters, integrated community risk management is critical for gathering quality-assured data to implement positive change in public sectors, consolidating Climate Change Adaptation and supporting Disaster Risk Reduction. Although multi-agency community engagement is suitable for understanding local vulnerabilities, the frequency of incidents dictates investments and limited resources are barriers for action.

Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context

This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them.

Pandemics, vulnerability, and prevention: time to fundamentally reassess how we value and communicate risk?

ABSTRACT For over a decade, pandemics have been on the UK National Risk Register as both the likeliest and most severe of threats. Non-infectious ‘lifestyle’ diseases were already crippling our healthcare services and our economy. COVID-19 has exposed two critical vulnerabilities: firstly, the UK’s failure to adequately assess and communicate the severity of non-communicable disease; secondly, the health inequalities across our society, due not least to the poor quality of our urban environments. This suggests a potentially disastrous lack of preventative action and risk management more generally, notably with regards to the existential risks from the climate and ecological crises.

Assessing the Extent to Which the UK’s National Risk Register Supports Local Risk Management

This paper examines how a national risk register supports the implementation of disaster risk management practices at a local level. We present a case study of the UK’s National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies and explore stakeholder understanding, views, perceptions, opinions, and application within the East of England. A semi-structured interview methodology was adopted for this paper with 14 key stakeholders from across the East of England interviewed. Thematic coding analysis was used to structure the results against a set of research questions. Interviewees were found to be largely unaware of the National Risk Register, and as such its usefulness as a risk management tool is limited. In particular, restricted local resources, limited understanding of risk, and a lack of actionable strategies were highlighted as barriers to action. Opportunities for capacity building at the local level, sharing best practice, and improved risk communication were all identified. The National Risk Register could be used to improve risk management at local levels but more engagement with it at a local level is required.

영국의 재난관리체계 및 재난위험성 평가제도의 도입 및 적용에 관한 연구

영국은 2004년 국가재난관리법(Civil Contingencies Act 2004)을 통하여 “Emergency”라는 결과중심의 단일 재난개념을 확립하고 있으며, 이를 통하여 유형과 관계없이 다양한 위험에 대비/대응할 수 있는 시스템을 구축하고 있다. 역사적으로 볼 때는, 평시 재난관리체계와 민방위 체계가 서로 합쳐져 오늘날의 통합형 재난관리체계(Integrated Emergency Management)로 이어진 것이다. 영국의 재난관리체계는 지역단위에서의 대비 및 대응을 원칙으로 하고 있으며, 이를 위하여 각 대응기관 간의 상호협력과 정보공유를 강조하고 있다. 또한 지역사회 및 영국 전체에서 재난위험성을 진단하고 평가하는 제도, 즉 지역사회 위험목록(Community Risk Register) 및 국가위험목록(National Risk Register) 제도가 잘 구축되어 있으며, 그 평가결과 역시 국민들에게 공개되어 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 재난위험성 평가 제도를 비롯하여 영국 재난관리체계의 전체 특징 및 특히 최근 변화를 종합적으로 살펴보고, 이를 바탕으로 우리나라의 재난관리체계가 나갈 방향에 대한 정책적 함의를 도출하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 ① (영국에서 기이 이루어진) 완전 통합형 재난관리체계의 도입 그리고 이에 따른 민방위 조직의 발전적 해체 및 단일 재난개념의 사용, ② 경찰을 비롯한 각 긴급대응기관 간 상호운용성(Inter-operability) 확보를 위한 법제도 개선, ③ (영국의 지역사회 위험목록 및 국가위험목록과 같은) 지역 및 국가단위의 재난위험성을 평가할 수 있는 제도의 도입이라는 세 가지 정책적 함의를 제시해보았다.

Impacts of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption on the UK atmosphere

Abstract. Volcanic emissions, specifically from Iceland, pose a pan-European risk and are on the UK National Risk Register due to potential impacts on aviation, public health, agriculture, the environment and the economy, from both effusive and explosive activity. During the 2014–2015 fissure eruption at Holuhraun in Iceland, the UK atmosphere was significantly perturbed. This study focuses one major incursion in September 2014, affecting the surface concentrations of both aerosols and gases across the UK, with sites in Scotland experiencing the highest sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations. The perturbation event observed was confirmed to originate from the fissure eruption using satellite data from GOME2B and the chemical transport model, EMEP4UK, which was used to establish the spatial distribution of the plume over the UK during the event of interest. At the two UK European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) supersite observatories (Auchencorth Moss, SE Scotland, and Harwell, SE England) significant alterations in sulfate (SO42−) content of PM10 and PM2.5 during this event, concurrently with evidence of an increase in ultrafine aerosol most likely due to nucleation and growth of aerosol within the plume, were observed. At Auchencorth Moss, higher hydrochloric acid (HCl) concentrations during the September event (max = 1.21 µg m−3, cf. annual average 0.12 µg m−3 in 2013), were assessed to be due to acid displacement of chloride (Cl−) from sea salt (NaCl) to form HCl gas rather than due to primary emissions of HCl from Holuhraun. The gas and aerosol partitioning at Auchencorth Moss of inorganic species by thermodynamic modelling confirmed the observed partitioning of HCl. Using the data from the chemical thermodynamic model, ISORROPIA-II, there is evidence that the background aerosol, which is typically basic at this site, became acidic with an estimated pH of 3.8 during the peak of the event.Volcano plume episodes were periodically observed by the majority of the UK air quality monitoring networks during the first 4 months of the eruption (August–December 2014), at both hourly and monthly resolution. In the low-resolution networks, which provide monthly SO2 averages, concentrations were found to be significantly elevated at remote “clean” sites in NE Scotland and SW England, with record-high SO2 concentrations for some sites in September 2014. For sites which are regularly influenced by anthropogenic emissions, taking into account the underlying trends, the eruption led to statistically unremarkable SO2 concentrations (return probabilities > 0.1, ∼ 10 months). However, for a few sites, SO2 concentrations were clearly much higher than has been previously observed (return probability < 0.005, > 3000 months). The Holuhraun Icelandic eruption has resulted in a unique study providing direct evidence of atmospheric chemistry perturbation of both gases and aerosols in the UK background atmosphere. The measurements can be used to both challenge and verify existing atmospheric chemistry of volcano plumes, especially those originating from effusive eruptions, which have been underexplored due to limited observations available in the literature. If all European data sets were collated this would allow improved model verification and risk assessments for future volcanic eruptions of this type.

Guidelines in infection prevention: Current challenges and limitations

British Journal of Healthcare ManagementVol. 22, No. 9 CommentGuidelines in infection prevention: Current challenges and limitationsAlison Holmes, Enrique Castro-Sánchez, Raheelah AhmadAlison HolmesSearch for more papers by this author, Enrique Castro-SánchezSearch for more papers by this author, Raheelah AhmadSearch for more papers by this authorAlison Holmes; Enrique Castro-Sánchez; Raheelah AhmadPublished Online:12 Sep 2016https://doi.org/10.12968/bjhc.2016.22.9.440AboutSectionsView articleView Full TextPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail View article References Ahmad R, Kyratsis Y, Holmes A (2012) When the user is not the chooser: learning from stakeholder involvement in technology adoption decisions in infection control. 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The authors would also like to acknowledge research produced by Imperial College London and commissioned by the Health Foundation, an independent charity working to continuously improve the quality of healthcare in the UK. Any conclusions, interpretations or policy options may not reflect the commissioner's views. Alison Holmes also acknowledges the support of the Imperial College Healthcare Trust NIHR Biomedical Research Centre.PDF download

Wildfire policy and management in England: an evolving response from Fire and Rescue Services, forestry and cross-sector groups.

Severe wildfires are an intermittent problem in England. The paper presents the first analysis of wildfire policy, showing its halting evolution over two decades. First efforts to coordinate wildfire management came from local fire operation groups, where stakeholders such as fire services, land owners and amenity groups shared knowledge and equipment to tackle the problem. A variety of structures and informal management solutions emerged in response to local needs. Knowledge of wildfire accumulated within regional and national wildfire forums and academic networks. Only later did the need for central emergency planning and the response to climate change produce a national policy response. Fire statistics have allowed wildfires to be spatially evidenced on a national scale only since 2009. National awareness of wildfire was spurred by the 2011 fire season, and the high-impact Swinley Forest fire, which threatened critical infrastructure and communities within 50 miles of London. Severe wildfire was included in the National Risk Register for the first time in 2013. Cross-sector approaches to wildfire proved difficult as government responsibility is fragmented along the hazard chain. Stakeholders such as the Forestry Commission pioneered good practice in adaptive land management to build fire resilience into UK forests. The grass-roots evolution of participatory solutions has also been a key enabling process. A coordinated policy is now needed to identify best practice and to promote understanding of the role of fire in the ecosystem.This article is part of a themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.

Development of large scale inland flood scenarios for disaster response planning based on spatial/temporal conditional probability analysis

Extreme event scenarios are useful for civil emergency services to help in developing contingency plans for responding effectively to major flooding incidents. In the UK, the official national risk register includes a scenario for inland flooding (from rivers and other sources), which is described in terms of a probability of occurrence over a five year period of between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20. This scenario was previously based on recent extreme floods, in conjunction with maps produced to aid in development planning on floodplains. At the time it was constructed, it was not feasible to assess scientifically the combined probability of a nationally-significant flood event of this type, therefore the scenario probability assessment was ambiguous. Recent developments in multivariate extreme value statistics now allow the probability of large scale flood events to be assessed with reference to hydrological summary statistics or impact metrics. Building on theory and pilot studies by Heffernan and Tawn [1], Lamb et al. [2] and Keef et al. [3], we describe the development of a set of national-scale scenarios based on a high-dimensional (ca. 1,100 locations) conditional probability analysis of extreme river flows and rainfall. The methodology provides a theoretically justified basis for extrapolation into the joint tail of the distribution of these variables, which is then used to simulate extreme events with associated probabilities. The probabilistic events are compared with current understanding of meteorological scenarios associated with significant, large-scale flooding in the UK, and with historical flooding, in order to identify plausible events that can inform national risk scenarios. Additionally, we combined scenarios of inland and coastal extremes that have been considered by linking the analysis discussed in this paper with methods presented in a companion paper by Wyncoll et al.

Antimicrobial resistance likely to join terrorism on national risk register

Antimicrobial resistance likely to join terrorism on national risk register

Crucial Controversies in Surgery

Crucial Controversies in Surgery