National Legislative Elections Research Articles

Public policy and elections in authoritarian regimes: evidence from the policy on native languages in Russia

AbstractHow might public policy changes affect electoral support for authoritarian regimes? Missing from the existing scholarship, which focuses mostly on regimes generating political budget cycles and manipulating electoral rules, is an exploration of how non-fiscal and non-electoral policies may impact incumbent support. We examine this issue with electoral and census data from one of the world’s most prominent authoritarian regimes – Russia – to evaluate the regime’s 2017 change to the policy governing native language instruction, which curtailed minority students’ ability to learn their native languages and faced opposition in some ethnic regions. Examining panel data on presidential elections using fixed effects models, our results reveal that the regime’s support decreased in titular minority areas in 2018. The results also indicate that some of these patterns emerged in previous national legislative elections and thus cannot be solely attributed to the policy change.

Do voters in developing and transitional democracies care about income inequality? the role of media freedom

AbstractIs there a relationship between income inequality and the electoral success of incumbent governments in developing and transitional democracies, and if so, what explains its variations? Using a large N study of national legislative elections in 38 developing and transitional democracies from 1987 to 2016 and controlling for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates, this paper tests: (i) whether change in income inequality is negatively associated with the vote share for the incumbent party and (ii) whether the level of media freedom affects the extent of economic voting. Overall, we find evidence that increasing income inequality is negatively and significantly related to the vote share for the incumbent but only in countries with free or somewhat‐free media. Furthermore, consistent with past studies, the most robustly significant economic factor in affecting incumbent vote shares remains economic growth.

Stop Suffering! Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge

AbstractThis paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. Regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal affiliation and in the vote share of candidates connected to Pentecostal churches in national legislative elections. Once elected, these politicians carry out an agenda with greater emphasis on issues that are sensitive to fundamental religious principles. We, therefore, find that recessions led to the rise of religious fundamentalism in tandem with the transfer of political capital to elected Pentecostal leaders.

Inclusivity and Decentralisation of Candidate Selectorates: Factional Consequences for Centre-Left Parties in England, Germany, and the United States

In recent elections, ‘progressives’ in centre-left parties have advocated for more democratised processes of candidate selection. We test whether more inclusive and decentralised selectorates align with higher numbers of progressive candidates nominated in national legislative elections by centre-left parties across three advanced western democracies between 2017 and 2021. In the Labour Party, more centralised selectorates aligned with higher numbers of progressives selected. For the SPD, we report null findings, likely due to additional incentives for factional co-operation in a multi-party system. In our most decentralised case, the Democratic Party, selection of progressives was congruent with district partisanship rather than selectorate inclusivity, with progressives more commonly selected in safe rather than competitive or unfavoured districts. This relationship was not present in our other cases. These findings highlight the importance of the decentralisation dimension for the factional allegiance of legislative candidates nominated.

Kenya

Abstract On 4 March 2013, when Kenyans participated in national presidential and legislative elections, there was wide-spread concern that the underling grievances that erupted during the 2007 and 2008 post-election violence would remerge. However, the polls were relatively peaceful in comparison. This case study will interrogate how mass atrocities were prevented in 2013 in Kenya, despite the prevalence of risk factors which could spark tensions and fuel violence. This article interrogates the local sources of resilience and inhibitors of atrocity crimes and considers the preventive actions that were undertaken and by whom, with a view to understanding what they achieved. In addition, it will assess the outcomes that were achieved as a result of these preventive actions. Through an evaluation of the preventive actions the article will examine which actions proved to be most effective in affecting the risks dynamics of the country in the short, medium and long-term. Kenya’s history of violence and failure to uphold accountability and redress for victims, meant that in 2013, it was significantly prone to the scourge of atrocity crimes. This analysis will draw out a number of key lessons for enhancing the prevention of atrocity crimes in the future.

Gendered path dependency: women’s representation in 20th-century Brazil

This study investigates women’s under-representation in national legislative elections and the gendered legacies embedded in Brazil’s electoral system and party dynamics. Focusing on the historical period prior to the 1996 implementation of a quota law, this article applies a feminist historical institutionalist approach to identify institutions and actors influencing women’s representation. Brazil’s electoral rules for legislative elections, that is, an open-list proportional representation system, remained surprisingly stable throughout periods of regime change and institutional uncertainty in the 20th century. It was not until the return to democracy and the 1986 constituent election that women were able to carve some space in Brazil’s National Congress. This research argues that the relaxing of rules dictating the creation of political parties and the strengthening of women’s movements in the prior decade were influential in creating a propitious moment for increasing the presence of women in national legislative politics.

CLEAVAGE STRUCTURE CHANGE IN THE 2019 GENERAL ELECTION IN INDONESIA

This paper examines the following puzzle in the Indonesian electoral results: while the 2019 election showed clear cleavage voting at the presidential level, such voting was not apparent in the national legislative elections, which are held at the same time. It considers two different explanations for this divergence, split-ticket voting and the distinctions in the electoral system between the presidential election and the election for the national legislature. It concludes that the structure of the different voting systems does the best job of explaining the differences in voting patterns.

Poverty Alleviation Strategy Policy Formulation in Toba Regency, North Sumatra Province

This paper aims to uncover the process of public policies formulation, specifically regarding poverty reduction strategies and social protection in Toba Regency, North Sumatra. The poverty reduction policy that is the focus of this research consists of three Regional Regulations (Perda), which were only issued in 2019, after the district was established (autonomy) since 1999, namely: Regional Regulation No. 2/2019 concerning the Implementation of Social Welfare, Regional Regulation No. 10/2019 concerning Protection and Fulfillment of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, and Regional Regulation Number policy formulation11/2019 concerning the Implementation of Elderly Welfare. This qualitative research concludes that the process and formulation of poverty reduction policies in Toba Regency took place technocratically and elitist. First, the three Regional Regulations are considered as "derived regulations", the operationalization of a higher level of statutory regulation (in this case government laws and regulations), which are considered to have clear scope and conception. Secondly, the three regional regulations were drafted at the end of the government (executive) period and national legislative elections which have implications and the potential for ineffective implementation of policies and as well as minimal oversight of the legislative majority which is not elected in the next period. This factor caused suspicion towards the three Regional Regulations to be solely formulated for the pragmatic interests of the incumbent regents for the sake of popularity and electability in the next regional elections. Third, there is a lack of public participation because these three regional regulations have policy targets for socially, culturally and politically vulnerable and voiceless groups, as well as the lack of support from civil society organizations. Based on the findings above, the policy recommendation put forward is that public involvement in the process and formulation of this Perda is not merely administrative in nature, but an active sequence from the setting agenda to the formulation.

Does Cohesion Policy reduce EU discontent and Euroscepticism?

ABSTRACT Some regions in Europe that have been heavily supported by the European Union’s Cohesion Policy have recently opted for parties with a strong Eurosceptic orientation. The results at the ballot box have been put forward as evidence that Cohesion Policy is ineffective for tackling the rising, European-wide wave of discontent. However, the evidence to support this view is scarce and often contradictory. This paper analyses the link between Cohesion Policy and the vote for Eurosceptic parties. It uses the share of votes cast for Eurosceptic parties in more than 63,000 electoral districts in national legislative elections in the EU-28 to assess whether Cohesion Policy investment since the year 2000 has made a difference for the electoral support for parties opposed to European integration. The results indicate that Cohesion Policy investment is linked to a lower anti-EU vote. This result is robust to employing different econometric approaches, to considering the variety of European development funds, to different periods of investment, to different policy domains, to shifts in the unit of analysis and to different levels of opposition by parties to the European project.

Who Governs in the Council? Determinants of Ministerial Participation in Council Meetings

The Council of the EU is the primary institution through which ministers of member states can express their positions on Commission proposals and vote upon legislation. This article first examines the extent to which ministers actually attend Council meetings before moving toward investigating the determinants of ministerial participation in over a period covering almost thirteen years between May 2004 and December 2016. It aims to identify determinants of why ministers from the Visegrad countries participate at some meetings and are absent from others. Using an original data set containing information about 940 Council meetings as well as several country-specific characteristics, we show that, on average, at about four out of every six meetings, ministers are absent. The results of our regressions indicate a pattern in which holding the office of the EU’s rotating presidency, the number of b-points on the agenda, and the size of the government increase the likelihood of ministerial participation in meetings. In contrast, high levels of popular support for Eurosceptic parties and holding of national legislative elections decrease the probability of ministerial attendance. Moreover, meetings of Council formations related to policy areas with a low level of EU competence are significantly less likely to be attended by ministers.

Organization and the structure of opportunities: Understanding the success of ethnic parties in postcommunist Europe

In this article, we formulate a theoretical framework that examines the “internal” organizational characteristics of ethnic minority political parties, the characteristics of the ethnic minority group they purport to represent, and the external environment that these parties face, to explain the political success of these parties. As an empirical plausibility probe of this framework, we use data from 1991 to 2016 for 41 ethnic minority parties across 12 countries and 89 national legislative elections. Using a logistic regression analysis, our findings suggest that party organizational capability is most associated with ethnic minority party success in postcommunist politics when compared to other “supply” and “structure of opportunity” variables.

The leaky pipeline and sacrificial lambs: Gender, candidate nomination, and district assignment in South Korea's national legislative elections

If gender quotas are applied to only one tier in a mixed-member majoritarian system, do we see a spillover effect of an increased proportion of women in the other tier? Based on statistical analysis of national legislative elections in South Korea from 1988 to 2016, this study casts doubt on the validity of the pipeline theory. The analysis shows that South Korea's gender quota has been achieving its primary goal of the political empowerment of women since its adoption in 2004, but with weak inter-tier contagion effect. In-depth interviews reveal the unique culture of the National Assembly and political parties which deem district-tier seats more prestigious than PR seats, and the informal practice of disadvantageous candidate district assignments lead to PR members having a hard time continuing their political careers once their terms as PR members are over.

Electoral Performance by Post-Rebel Parties

This article explores the factors affecting post-rebel party electoral performance. We present new research tracking the participation of these groups in national legislative elections from 1990 to 2016. Our full data set covers 77 parties and 286 elections in 37 countries. It includes parties formed after conflicts of varying length and intensity, with different incompatibilities, in every region of the world, and in countries with disparate political histories. Our analysis suggests that post-rebel parties’ early electoral performance strongly affects future performance, and that competition – crowd-out by older rival parties – and pre-war organizational experience in politics have a significant positive effect, particularly for those parties that are consistently winning more than about 10 per cent of seats. But especially for parties that consistently win very low seat shares, organizational characteristics yield increasingly to environmental factors, most importantly the presence of rival parties and the barriers to representation presented by electoral rules.

The effect of incumbency in national and local elections: Evidence from South Korea

In this paper, we investigate the effect of incumbency in three different electoral settings in South Korea using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. We claim that incumbency provides advantages in local elections, but its positive effects diminish in national legislative elections. Local politicians have an opportunity to develop close ties with their constituents, insulating themselves from national politics; but, due to the centralized nature of national politics, members of the National Assembly do not. Consistent with our expectation, incumbency effects are generally positive in local elections, but insignificant or even negative in national legislative elections. We also find that politicians who previously held local elected office enjoy an incumbency advantage in national legislative elections.

Democratization and women’s representation in presidential cabinets: evidence from East and Southeast Asia

ABSTRACTThis article examines patterns of women’s cabinet representation across all presidential democracies in East and Southeast Asia since democratization. It demonstrates how the choice of female ministers differs across career backgrounds in presidential systems and further examines why young presidential systems in Asia are conducive to women’s access to ministerial power through professional career tracks. We argue that despite women’s successful performance in national legislative elections, women have been restricted to access the power resources necessary to target other political goals, such as cabinet positions, whereas democratic transition has provided broader avenues for women to emerge as professionals outside party politics. By analyzing original data on female ministers in East and Southeast Asia, the study finds that the share of women among professional ministers has increased over time, but women’s share among political ministers has not changed significantly. Additionally, the different qualifications of female politicians and professionals also make them eligible for appointment to different types of policy areas in terms of prestige and gender. Our analysis suggests that women’s cabinet representation has improved overall since democratic transition in Asia, but this improvement disguises contrasting outcomes in women’s cabinet status according to their career backgrounds.

The Illusion of Afghanistan’s Electoral Representative Democracy: The Cases of Afghan Presidential and National Legislative Elections

This article is the latest in a series of published articles systematically examining Afghan Presidential and legislative elections. Structural problems including fraud, ethno-linguistic block voting, and the Single Non-Transferable Vote have had significant impacts on the development of Afghan democratic elections. The challenge now facing the current Afghan government and future elections is the daunting task of uniting the Afghan people while not repeating the electoral mistakes of the past. The tricky balancing act of fostering an overarching national identity without being perceived as privileging particular identities requires strong leadership and a willingness to challenge traditional ethnic, linguistic, and religious norms when need be. Karzai and Ghani Administrations have seriously failed relative to this dynamic.

Gap for Improvement: Election Observation and Political Representation of Women in the OSCE Region

ABSTRACTFaced with low numbers of women in national legislatures, election observers would be expected to recommend action for improving equal representation. With data from nearly 100 election observation reports of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, this article explores how frequently and how strongly observers recommended taking measures to improve participation of women candidates in national legislative elections. It was found that the number of such recommendations has grown over the past decade, but with a tendency to use weak language. In examining these recommendations, this article argues that observers should be more consistent and insistent in promoting equal opportunities for women candidates.

Masters of their fate? Explaining MPs’ re-candidacy in the long run: The case of Italy (1987–2013)

Why are certain Members of Parliament (MPs) more likely to get re-candidacy for national legislative elections, therefore having the possibility to continue their career? This article answers this question by comparing political elites' long-debated explanations with more legislative behaviour-related factors. By focusing on more than 25 years of the Italian Lower House's history, we have built a novel dataset on the legislative behaviour and career patterns of more than 3500 Italian MPs. A multilevel logistic regression analysis shows that, with the exception of party switching, legislative behaviour does not seem to exert a significant impact on MPs' re-candidacy. On the contrary, the career status of parliamentarians, i.e., their parliamentary position or their ministerial historical record, strongly influences their chances of obtaining re-candidacy.

The Effect of Incumbency in National and Local Elections: Evidence from South Korea

Although the effects of incumbency on election outcomes are well documented, it is less clear why incumbency has positive effects in some countries but negative effects in others. In this paper, we address this issue by studying national legislative and local executive elections in South Korea from 1988 to 2014 using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. We claim that incumbency would provide disadvantages in legislative elections but advantages in local executive elections given the superiority of the executive over the legislature and the nationalization of legislative politics in South Korea. Consistent with our expectation, we find an incumbency disadvantage in national legislative elections but an incumbency advantage in mayoral elections. We also find that local politicians, candidates who previously held local elected office, enjoy an incumbency advantage in national legislative elections, which suggests that incumbency advantage depends on whether incumbents are able to insulate themselves from national politics.

Reverse coattail effects in undemocratic elections: an analysis of Russian locomotives

ABSTRACTThis article argues that the effectiveness of the tactics ruling parties use to control the electoral arena may depend on the electoral experience of its subordinates. To substantiate this point, the work examines Russia’s “locomotives” – the practice of placing regional governors on the list of the ruling party, United Russia, during national legislative elections. It argues that electoral payoffs also came from select regions without locomotives. Given the move to appointed governors, list exclusion likely indicated gubernatorial vulnerability. As a result, governors left off United Russia’s list may have responded by seeking to demonstrate their electoral utility, and those with longer tenures were more likely to succeed in these efforts. An analysis of the 2007 Duma elections shows that United Russia’s vote share was higher in regions where long-serving governors were left off the list. Since Russia’s appointment system dramatically changed the gubernatorial corps between 2007 and 2011, the article also considers changes in the effects of list placement over time. It finds that the relationship between list exclusion and higher vote shares for United Russia disappears as governors with electoral experience were removed from office.