Natural Environment Research Council Research Articles

Enhancing environmental policy through evidence synthesis: a review of the Environmental Evidence for the Future (EEF) Initiative

The Environmental Evidence for the Future (EEF) Initiative emerged in response to the challenges and opportunities presented by the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and its associated Environmental Frameworks. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), working closely with the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence (CEE) and UK stakeholders, developed the initiative to identify and address crucial evidence gaps, offering a long-term vision for environmental policy and sustainability. The EEF Initiative progressed through three stages: strategic priority identification, NERC panel award selection, and the production of Systematic Maps of existing evidence. The first stage involved collaborative workshops across the UK to identify key knowledge gaps in environmental science. The subsequent prioritisation resulted in 65 challenges across 10 thematic areas. The second stage saw NERC initiating, with CEE support, an open call for research proposals emphasising the use of evidence synthesis methodology. The selection process, balancing topic importance and applicant expertise, led to funding for five projects. The final stage involved the production of Systematic Maps of existing evidence based on the CEE Guidelines and Standards, providing a structured overview of existing literature on specific topics. The EEF Initiative demonstrated effective collaboration between UKRI (NERC), an independent non-profit (CEE), academia, and government agencies, addressing critical environmental challenges through rigorous evidence synthesis methodologies. The programme enhanced understanding and utilisation of these methodologies within the research community. Key lessons include the importance of inclusive priority-setting, differentiation between broad policy questions and specific Systematic Map questions, recognition of the value of Systematic Maps, and the role of experience in evidence synthesis teams. As policymakers and researchers navigate environmental policies in a resource-constrained environment, the EEF Initiative highlights the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of systematic mapping and review processes for evidence-based decision-making. The success of funding through NERC sets a precedent for future thematic evidence focused programmes, emphasising the need for continued support in developing synthesis skills among researchers and encouraging direct government commissions for targeted and responsive evidence. The EEF Initiative serves as a model for effective collaboration, providing valuable insights into addressing evidence gaps and shaping evidence-based policymaking in an ever-evolving environmental landscape.

Using the Doughnut Economics framework to structure whole-system thinking in socioecological wellbeing with multidisciplinary stakeholders: an applied case study in Glasgow, Scotland

BackgroundHuman and environmental health are inseparable and interdependent. Doughnut Economics is a conceptual framework combining the Sustainable Development Goals with Planetary Boundaries, thereby simultaneously considering human and planetary wellbeing. The vision is to “meet the needs of all people within the means of the living planet, for the benefit of both current and future generations”. Glasgow City Council has committed to becoming a Green Wellbeing Economy, with a socially just transition to Net Zero by 2030. Through our City-University partnership, we are exploring whether Doughnut Economics can drive transformative action towards a sustainable, healthy, and equitable future. MethodsGlasgow is a pilot site for the C40 Cities’ Thriving City Portrait methodology that downscales Doughnut Economics to cities. The Portrait process combined desk-based research and policy review (from January to April, 2022) with participatory workshops to enrich initial findings. The five participatory workshops took place between April, 2022, and February, 2023, and involved about 130 stakeholders. Participants included civil servants, politicians, scientists, community representatives, employees and representatives of private and third-sector organisations, and social enterprises, identified through an iterative stakeholder mapping process with City Council partners. Workshop aims were to create pluralistic definitions of what thriving means for each of the Doughnut's social and ecological dimensions. Ethics approval for the study was granted by The University of Glasgow, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences. FindingsThe workshops produced a shared, holistic vision for Glasgow's future as a thriving city. The Doughnut demonstrated potential as a tool for both understanding the city's socioecological impacts, and as a compass by which the city might set its policy agenda. It allows the multiple goals and priorities of a city system to congregate around a cohesive goal. The Portrait process led to a widening of stakeholders’ perspectives, applying systems thinking to policy priorities, cross-sector discussion and collaboration, and significant buy-in from a diverse range of changemakers. InterpretationThe Doughnut framework offered a starting point for Public and Planetary Health researchers to understand connections, co-benefits and trade-offs across different parts of the policy and intervention system. Applying this framework in cities could generate support for whole-system interventions and sustainable solutions to the complex and interconnected climate and social challenges we face. One of the limitations is that we do not yet know whether stakeholders can translate support for this co-created framework into tangible whole-systems action. FundingUKRI Natural Environment Research Council and University of Glasgow.

Evaluating the CoMorph‐A parametrization using idealized simulations of the two‐way coupling between convection and large‐scale dynamics

AbstractWe present a new methodology to test the interactions of convection schemes with their larger scale environment. A single‐column model (SCM) using the new Met Office convection scheme, CoMorph‐A, and the new Met Office–Natural Environment Research Council cloud‐resolving model (CRM) are coupled to damped‐gravity‐wave‐derived large‐scale dynamics. The coupled models are used to investigate convective responses to stimulus forcings under the influence of interactive large‐scale dynamics. Within CoMorph‐A, the default entrainment varies with the prediction of convection size that is dependent on earlier rainfall, and the sensitivity of the SCM results to the entrainment formulation is explored. We demonstrate that the behaviour of the SCM using CoMorph‐A is now very similar to that of the CRM. For temperature or moisture stimulus applied separately, the SCM adjusts to a new equilibrium that is similar to that in the CRM, but its transient convective responses to stimuli acting to suppress convection are markedly too fast. For a combination of stimuli acting to enhance convection, the SCM responses are stronger than in the CRM. Finally, convective rainfall in the SCM is relatively insensitive to a combination of stimuli acting to enhance and suppress convection simultaneously, in agreement with the CRM. However, the SCM recovery from a non‐precipitating state is overly delayed for the default entrainment formulation but is too rapid when the entrainment rate is fixed at a low rate to represent only the deep convective state. We examined the responses to moisture stimuli of different strengths. Both models produce a monotonic increase of precipitation with column relative humidity (CRH) as well as the sharp increase of precipitation as CRH exceeds a threshold, as seen in observations. Though both models correctly capture the observed CRH threshold, differences from the observed precipitation–CRH relationship are noted. For instance, above the threshold the increase of precipitation with CRH is more abrupt in the SCM than in the CRM and observations. A similar behaviour is obtained in the SCM using low entrainment rate.

EMODnet Biology: Unlocking European marine biodiversity data

EMODnet Biology (hosted and coordinated by the Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ)) is one of the seven themes within the European Marine Observation and Data network (EMODnet). The EMODnet Biology consortium aims to facilitate the accessibility and usage of marine biodiversity data. With the principle of "collect once, use many times" at its core, EMODnet Biology fosters collaboration across various sectors, including research, policy-making, industry, and individual citizens, to enhance knowledge sharing and inform decision-making. EMODnet Biology focuses on providing free and open access to comprehensive historical and recent data on the occurrence of marine species and their traits in all European regional seas. It achieves this through partnerships and collaboration with diverse international initiatives, such as the World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS), Marine Regions and the European node of the Ocean Biodiversity Information System (EurOBIS) among others. By promoting the usage of the Darwin Core Standard (Wieczorek et al. 2012), EMODnet Biology fosters data interoperability and ensures seamless integration with wider networks such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and the Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS), serving as a significant data provider of the latter, as it is responsible for most of its data generated in Europe. Since its inception, EMODnet Biology has undertaken actions covering various areas, including providing access to marine biological data with spatio-temporal, taxonomic, environmental- and sampling-related information among others; developing an exhaustive data quality control tool based on the Darwin Core standard, the British Oceanographic Data Centre and Natural Environment Research Council Vocabulary Server (BODC NVS2) parameters and other controlled vocabularies used; creating and providing training courses to guide data providers; performing gap analyses to identify data quality and coverage shortcomings; creating and publishing marine biological distribution maps for various species or species groups; and interacting with international and European initiatives, projects and organizations. providing access to marine biological data with spatio-temporal, taxonomic, environmental- and sampling-related information among others; developing an exhaustive data quality control tool based on the Darwin Core standard, the British Oceanographic Data Centre and Natural Environment Research Council Vocabulary Server (BODC NVS2) parameters and other controlled vocabularies used; creating and providing training courses to guide data providers; performing gap analyses to identify data quality and coverage shortcomings; creating and publishing marine biological distribution maps for various species or species groups; and interacting with international and European initiatives, projects and organizations. Furthermore, EMODnet Biology contributes to the overall EMODnet initiative, which covers multidisciplinary data and products. Thanks to the use of standard protocols and tools across disciplines, EMODnet Biology products can contribute to multidisciplinary analysis of pressures and impacts on key marine species and habitats, and, lastly, support a better management and planning of the maritime space. In conclusion, EMODnet Biology plays a pivotal role in biodiversity informatics by providing users with a wealth of accessible and reusable marine biodiversity data and products. Its collaborative approach, extensive partnerships, and adherence to the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) data principles (Wilkinson et al. 2016) as well as to the Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe (INSPIRE) metadata technical guidelines (European Commission Joint Research Centre 2013) and the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards make it a valuable resource for advancing knowledge, informing policies, and supporting sustainable management of marine ecosystems.

Brief historical review of the geological cartography in Ecuador.

Since 1892, seven versions of the national geological map of the Republic of the Ecuador have been published. In 1892, Dr. Theodor Wolf, of the German Scientific Mission, published the 1st map which included a preliminary geomorphological description. Later, Dr. Walther Sauer with the support of the Universidad Central del Ecuador (Central University of Ecuador), published a 2nd version in 1950, and then an update in 1970, both included oil wells information. In 1969, the Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería del Ecuador (National Service of Geology and Mining of Ecuador), and Institut Français du Pétrole (French Petroleum Institute), published the 3rd version which included a mineralogical index. The 4th version was developed by the Dirección General de Geología y Minas del Ecuador (General Directorate of Geology and Mines of Ecuador) and Institute of Geological Sciences & Natural Environment Research Council, and was published in 1982, it included a geological model from a plate tectonics approach. Later, in 1993, the Corporación de Desarrollo e Investigación Geológico Minero y Metalúrgica del Ecuador (Geological, Mining and Metallurgical Research and Development Corporation of Ecuador) and the British Geological Survey published a 5th version, which included an overview of mineral occurrences on the Ecuadorian Andes. On the 21st. century, in 2001 was published the 6th version, that consisted of a reviewed national geological map, which included data transferring to the geographical information system ArcGis. Ultimately in 2017, the Instituto Nacional de Investigación Geológico Minero Metalúrgico (National Institute of Geological-Mineral-Metallurgical Research), published the 7th version, incorporating the last updated geological results of previous campaigns. Every version contributed to the understanding of the regional geodynamic framework. Nevertheless, in the last two decades, informal coding of units for the geological cartography, thrived, involving a lack of characterization and descriptions of representative outcrops, along with uncertainties on geochronological control for newly mappable defined units, reduce reliability on the national geological cartography, increasing the uncertainties for the understanding the regional geodynamic framework.

Urban–rural disparity in global estimation of PM2·5 household air pollution and its attributable health burden

Polluting fuels and inefficient stove technologies are still a leading cause of premature deaths worldwide, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Previous studies of global household air pollution (HAP) have neither considered the estimation of PM2·5 at national level nor the corresponding attributable mortality burden. Additionally, the effects of climate and ambient air pollution on the global estimation of HAP-PM2·5 exposure for different urban and rural settings remain largely unknown. In this study, we include climatic effects to estimate the HAP-PM2·5 exposure from different fuel types and stove technologies in rural and urban settings separately and the related attributable global mortality burden. Bayesian hierarchical models were developed to estimate an annual average HAP-PM2·5 personal exposure and HAP-PM2·5 indoor concentration (including both outdoor and indoor sources). Model variables were selected from sample data in 282 peer-reviewed studies drawn and updated from the WHO Global HAP dataset. The PM2·5 exposure coefficients from the developed model were applied to the external datasets to predict the HAP-PM2·5 exposure globally (personal exposure in 62 countries and indoor concentration in 69 countries). Attributable mortality rate was estimated using a comparative risk assessment approach. Using weighted averages, the national level 24 h average HAP-PM2·5 exposure due to polluting and clean fuels and related death rate per 100 000 population were estimated. In 2020, household use of polluting solid fuels for cooking and heating led to a national-level average personal exposure of 151 μg/m3 (95% CI 133-169), with rural households having an average of 171 μg/m3 (153-189) and urban households an average of 92 μg/m3 (77-106). Use of clean fuels gave rise to a national-level average personal exposure of 69 μg/m3 (62-76), with a rural average of 76 μg/m3 (69-83) and an urban average of 49 μg/m3 (46-53). Personal exposure-attributable premature mortality (per 100 000 population) from the use of polluting solid fuels at national level was on average 78 (95% CI 69-87), with a rural average of 82 (73-90) and an urban average of 66 (57-75). The average attributable premature mortality (per 100 000 population) from the use of clean fuels at the national level is 62 (54-70), with a rural average of 66 (58-74) and an urban average of 52 (47-57). The estimated HAP-PM2·5 indoor concentration shows that the use of polluting solid fuels resulted in a national-level average of 412 μg/m3 (95% CI 353-471), with a rural average of 514 μg/m3 (446-582) and an urban average of 149 μg/m3 (126-173). The use of clean fuels (gas and electricity) led to an average PM2·5 indoor concentration of 135 μg/m3 (117-153), with a rural average of 174 μg/m3 (154-195) and an urban average of 71 μg/m3 (63-80). Using time-weighted HAP-PM2·5 indoor concentrations, the attributable premature death rate (per 100 000 population) from the use of polluting solid fuels at the national level is on average 78 (95% CI 72-84), the rural average being 84 (78-91) and the urban average 60 (54-66). From the use of clean fuels, the average attributable premature death rate (per 100 000 population) at the national level is 59 (53-64), the rural average being 68 (62-74) and the urban average 45 (41-50). A shift from polluting to clean fuels can reduce the average PM2·5 personal exposure by 53% and thereby lower the death rate. For all fuel types, the estimated average HAP-PM2·5 personal exposure and indoor concentrations exceed the WHO's Interim Target-1 average annual threshold. Policy interventions are urgently needed to greatly increase the use of clean fuels and stove technologies by 2030 to achieve the goal of affordable clean energy access, as set by the UN in 2015, and address health inequities in urban-rural settings. Wellcome Trust, The Lancet Countdown, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and the Natural Environment Research Council.

The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates

Abstract. Appropriate adaptation planning is contingent upon information about the potential future impacts of climate change, and hydrological impact assessments are of particular importance. The UKSCAPE-G2G datasets were produced, as part of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) UK-SCAPE (UK Status, Change and Projections of the Environment) programme, to contribute to this information requirement. They use the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) national-scale hydrological model configured for both Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the parts of the Republic of Ireland that drain to rivers in NI). Six separate datasets are provided, for two sets of driving data – one observation-based (1980–2011) and one climate-projection-based (1980–2080) – for both river flows and soil moisture on 1 km × 1 km grids across Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The river flow datasets include grids of monthly mean flow, annual maxima of daily mean flow, and annual minima of 7 d mean flow (m3 s−1). The soil moisture datasets are grids of monthly mean soil moisture content (m water / m soil), which should be interpreted as depth-integrated values for the whole soil column. The climate-projection-based datasets are produced using data from the 12-member 12 km regional climate model ensemble of the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18), which uses RCP8.5 emissions. The production of the datasets is described, along with details of the file format and how the data should be used. Example maps are provided, as well as simple UK-wide analyses of the various outputs. These suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, annual minimum 7 d flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, along with possible future increases in winter flows and annual maximum flows. References are given for published papers providing more detailed spatial analyses, and some further potential uses of the data are suggested. The datasets are listed in Table 1.

Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting jet activity from observations and model data

Strong surface winds in Storm <i>Eunice</i>. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting jet activity from observations and model data

No time for complacency on COVID-19 in Europe

No time for complacency on COVID-19 in Europe

A DATABASE OF NERC RADIOCARBON MEASUREMENTS DETERMINED BY ACCELERATOR MASS SPECTROMETRY

ABSTRACT Radiocarbon (14C) measurements undertaken by the NERC Radiocarbon Laboratory using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) are now freely available on a new online database. The data presented covers measurement of the wide range of sample types that are processed for research projects in the fields of Earth and environmental science, supported by the United Kingdom’s Natural Environment Research Council. Sample types within the database include organic remains, soils, sediments, carbonates, dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, and carbon dioxide. Currently, the database contains 14C data for over 2400 individual samples that were measured and reported between 2005 and 2013, but it is envisaged that this will expand considerably as more data are made available. Contextual information such as sampling location and associated publications are provided where available, and searches can be performed on sample location, sample type, project number, and publication code. This new database compliments an existing, publicly available database of measurements performed using radiometric methods by the laboratory which has recently been expanded to present over 2000 measurements. It is hoped that this archive will prove useful to workers in the community who would benefit from greater availability of measurements for particular locations or sample types, and for the purposes of performing meta-analyses, and/or synthesis of larger datasets.

Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe

Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. Medical Research Council of UK, the Natural Environment Research Council UK, the EU's Horizon 2020, and the EU's Joint Research Center.

Combining isotope ratios for provenancing Viking Age iron artefacts in the British Isles: a pilot study.

Stable and radiogenic isotope analysis - particularly using lead isotope analysis (LIA) - has previously been shown to be a useful tool for the provenancing of ancient metal artefacts of silver and copper and its alloys, but less progress has been made in the provenancing of iron artefacts, despite their importance and frequency in the archaeological record. In this pilot study we investigate for the first time the possibilities of iron isotope analysis in combination with trace strontium isotope analysis and LIA for the provenancing of iron objects believed to be from the Viking Age in the British Isles. Previous studies have shown that analysis of each of these isotopes can contribute to provenancing iron artefacts, but they are not individually resolutory. In this proof-of-concept study, we examine the Fe, Sr and Pb isotopes of 7 artefacts believed to derive from the Viking Age: 3 from Meols - a former Viking seaport on Wirral and 4 samples from the probable location of the AD 1066 Battle of Fulford in North Yorkshire. We also examine an additional artefact of unknown antiquity from Bebington Heath - a possible location of the AD 937 Battle of Brunanburh. Although the pilot data set is too small to make definitive conclusions, it has paved the way for a fuller study involving 100 samples (including 30 from the former Viking camp of Torksey, Lincolnshire) funded by the NEIF fund of the UK National Environmental Research Council. The high range of 87Sr/86Sr values in the present data set of 8 is beyond what would be expected for bog iron (with a cut-off ∼ 0.709) and suggests that mined ore was being used, a preliminary conclusion supported by the narrow range of Fe isotope data.

Building blocks of community positive health: the contribution of Kenyan communities

BackgroundBeyond the health system, people draw on a complex system of everyday community resources to strengthen human and environmental health. These resources, and the community members who use them, are often overlooked by traditional approaches to planetary health. We aimed to apply a resourcefulness approach to define community positive health and the systems of resources that support this, and to define ways in which communities can pursue and sustain health agendas driven by local priorities. MethodsThrough a multi-site, mixed-methods research project, we worked with different groups of community members across three diverse field sites in Kenya, in the Baringo, Siaya, and Nakuru counties. We used a mixture of qualitative (78 focus discussion groups), participatory (67 activities, such as cognitive mapping, community timelines and mapping, tree diagrams, patient journeys, and walking interviews), and data-driven approaches to understand community concepts of positive health and collaboratively define the building blocks that shape community positive health. FindingsPreliminary research findings indicated that community positive health was defined by building blocks that included nutrition, clean water, education, and adequate local infrastructure. Crucially, these building blocks were underpinned by intangible community resources, such as culture, knowledge, and social cohesion. With cognitive mapping, we understood how communities leveraged these building blocks into a functioning community-level system. However, one of the greatest challenges felt by each community was the detrimental effects of climate change, contributing alongside human action and inaction to droughts, floods, and natural resource degradation. InterpretationThis initial stage of research defined community positive health and uncovered systems of local resources. Findings will be refined in a further stage of research to co-produce a pilot-tested, validated toolkit to enable resourcefulness-based approaches to community positive health. This output will be supported by an inclusive knowledge-building process that will set the stage to support communities to make more effective decisions about the use of local resources. FundingBelmont Forum by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.

Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study.

SummaryBackgroundIdentifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting.MethodsWe collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different greenspace groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations.FindingsCities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1·19 (95% CI: 1·13, 1·25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1·46 (95% CI: 1·31, 1·62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9·02% (95% CI: 8·88, 9·16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries.InterpretationOur findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change.FundingThis publication was developed under Assistance Agreement No. RD83587101 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Yale University. It has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Agency. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. Research reported in this publication was also supported by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01MD012769. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Also, this work has been supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (2021R1A6A3A03038675), Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 310372), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655 and 874990), Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S), Emory University's NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (Grant ID: P30ES019776), and Grant CEX2018-000794-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 The funders had no role in the design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of results, manuscript writing, or decision to publication.

Low temperature and temperature decline increase acute aortic dissection risk and burden: A nationwide case crossover analysis at hourly level among 40,270 patients

SummaryBackgroundAcute aortic dissection (AAD) is a life-threatening cardiovascular emergency with high mortality, so identifying modifiable risk factors of AAD is of great public health significance. The associations of non-optimal temperature and temperature variability with AAD onset and the disease burden have not been fully understood.MethodsWe conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study using a nationwide registry dataset from 1,868 hospitals in 313 Chinese cities. Conditional logistic regression and distributed lag models were used to investigate associations of temperature and temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN) with the hourly AAD onset and calculate the attributable fractions. We also evaluated the heterogeneity of the associations.FindingsA total of 40,270 eligible AAD cases were included. The exposure-response curves for temperature and TCN with AAD onset risk were both inverse and approximately linear. The risks were present on the concurrent hour (for temperature) or day (for TCN) and lasted for almost 1 day. The cumulative relative risks of AAD were 1.027 and 1.026 per 1°C lower temperature and temperature decline between neighboring days, respectively. The associations were significant during the non-heating period, but were not present during the heating period in cities with central heating. 23.13% of AAD cases nationwide were attributable to low temperature and 1.58% were attributable to temperature decline from the previous day.InterpretationThis is the largest nationwide study demonstrating robust associations of low temperature and temperature decline with AAD onset. We, for the first time, calculated the corresponding disease burden and further showed that central heating may be a modifier for temperature-related AAD risk and burden.FundingThis work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (92043301 and 92143301), Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project (No. 21230780200), the Medical Research Council-UK (MR/R013349/1), and the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/R009384/1).

The research needed to help society adapt and be more resilient to climate change

Climate change is a global problem requiring global solutions, including new research into how to improve adaptation and resilience of communities. Sarah Webb of the Natural Environment Research Council reports on its recent assessment of environmental research priorities.

How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health, environmental sustainability, and food affordability: a modelling study

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic arrived at a time of faltering global poverty reduction and increasing levels of diet-related diseases, both of which have a strong link to poor outcomes for those with COVID-19. Governments responded to the pandemic by placing unprecedented restrictions on internal and external movements, which have resulted in an economic contraction. In response to the economic shock, G20 governments have committed to providing US$14 trillion stimuli to support economic recovery. We aimed to assess the impact of different COVID-19 recovery paths on human health, environmental sustainability, and food sustainability.MethodsWe used LandSyMM, a global gridded land use change model, to analyse the impact of recovery paths from COVID-19. The paths were illustrated by four scenarios that represent different pandemic severities (including a single or recurrent pandemic) and alternate modes of recovery, including a transition of food demand towards healthier diets that result in changes to the food system: (1) solidarity and celery, (2) nothing new, (3) fries and fragmentation, and (4) best laid plans. For each scenario, we modelled the economic shocks of the pandemic and the impact of policy measures to promote healthier diets in the years after the COVID-19 pandemic, including the supply of and demand for food, environmental outcomes, and human health outcomes. The four scenarios use established future population growth and economic development projections derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. We quantified the outcomes from more societally cooperative pandemic responses that result in reduced trade barriers and improved technological development against less cooperative responses.FindingsRepeated pandemic shocks (the fries and fragmentation and best laid plans scenarios) reduce the ability of the lowest income countries to ensure food security. A post-pandemic recovery that includes dietary transition towards the consumption of less meat and more fruits and vegetables (the solidarity and celery scenario) could prevent 2583 premature deaths per million in 2060, whereas recovery paths that are focused on economic recovery (the fries and fragmentation scenario) could trigger an additional 778 deaths per million in 2060. The transition of dietary preferences towards healthier diets (the solidarity and celery scenario) also reduces nitrogen fertiliser use by 40 million tonnes and irrigation water by 400 km3 compared with no dietary change in 2060 (the nothing new scenario). Finally, the scenario with dietary transition increases the affordability of the average diet.InterpretationThe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is most visible in low-income countries, where a reduction in growth projections makes a greater difference to the affordability of a basic diet. A change in dietary preferences is most impactful in reducing mortality and the burden of disease when income levels are high. At lower income, a transition towards lower meat consumption reduces undernourishment and diet-related mortality.FundingThe Global Food Security's Resilience of the UK Food System Programme project, with support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, and the Scottish Government.

Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis

Epidemiological literature on the health risks associated with non-optimal temperature has mostly reported average estimates across large areas or specific population groups. However, the heterogeneous distribution of drivers of vulnerability can result in local differences in health risks associated with heat and cold. We aimed to analyse the association between ambient air temperature and all-cause mortality across England and Wales and characterise small scale patterns in temperature-related mortality risks and impacts. We performed a country-wide small-area analysis using data on all-cause mortality and air temperature for 34 753 lower super output areas (LSOAs) within 348 local authority districts (LADs) across England and Wales between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2019. We first performed a case time series analysis of LSOA-specific and age-specific mortality series matched with 1 × 1 km gridded temperature data using distributed lag non-linear models, and then a repeated-measure multivariate meta-regression to pool LAD-specific estimates using area-level climatological, socioeconomic, and topographical predictors. The final analysis included 10 716 879 deaths from all causes. The small-area assessment estimated that each year in England and Wales, there was on average 791 excess deaths (empirical 95% CI 611-957) attributable to heat and 60 573 (55 796-65 145) attributable to cold, corresponding to standardised excess mortality rates of 1·57 deaths (empirical 95% CI 1·21-1·90) per 100 000 person-years for heat and 122·34 deaths (112·90-131·52) per 100 000 person-years for cold. The risks increased with age and were highly heterogeneous geographically, with the minimum mortality temperature ranging from 14·9°C to 22·6°C. Heat-related mortality was higher in urban areas, whereas cold-related mortality showed a more nuanced geographical pattern and increased risk in areas with greater socioeconomic deprivation. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of excess mortality related to non-optimal outdoor temperature, with several risk indicators reported by age and multiple geographical levels. The analysis provides detailed risk maps that are useful for designing effective public health and climate policies at both local and national levels. Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, EU Horizon 2020 Programme, National Institute of Health Research.

Dramatic growth of hydrological science in the UK in the 1960s and early 1970s

Abstract The mid-1960s to early 1970s were a formative stage in hydrology in the UK. This was a period of a major increase in government funding for science. Establishing hydrology as an environmental science to compete for a share in this boost in funding with well-recognised subjects such as geology, ecology and oceanography depended on the work of enthusiastic scientists influencing the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Progress was made by key individuals not only by their own research contributions but also by their influential work within the government, exemplified by the roles of five physicists. In attempting to accelerate hydrological science, mistakes were made but, in this period, a major research institute was founded, large field catchment experiments were set up and research and training within UK universities increased significantly. The research is based on participant observation and examination of contemporary committee papers held in the UK National Archives, Kew and in the Science Museum Archive, Wroughton.

Young voices and visions for tropical restoration science in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration

Young voices and visions for tropical restoration science in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration