National Energy System Research Articles

Governance Frameworks for Renewable Energy Development: Energy Transition and Public Governance

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate governance frameworks for renewable energy development, with the aim of understanding how effective governance can facilitate the energy transition and contribute to sustainable development. Theoretical Framework: This research draws on key theories in public governance and energy transition, focusing on regulatory mechanisms, stakeholder engagement, and the integration of renewable energy policies. Concepts from energy security and sustainable development underpin the analysis. Method: A comprehensive literature review and case study analysis were conducted. The study design includes an examination of regulatory and policy mechanisms, stakeholder involvement, and institutional structures across various regions. Data collection was based on case studies from different countries, analyzing the challenges and successes in renewable energy governance. Results and Discussion: The results revealed the critical role of policy coherence, long-term stability, and stakeholder engagement in the successful implementation of governance frameworks. Key challenges such as regulatory uncertainty, grid integration, and public acceptance were identified. The discussion contextualizes these findings within the theoretical framework, offering insights into the relationships between governance and energy policy outcomes. Research Implications: The study provides practical and theoretical implications for policymakers and energy practitioners. It underscores the need for coherent, stable, and inclusive governance frameworks that can address barriers and promote the integration of renewable energy into national energy systems. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by offering an in-depth analysis of governance frameworks and their role in the renewable energy transition. It highlights best practices and offers valuable lessons for stakeholders engaged in energy governance.

Generación renovable eólica y fotovoltaica en Ecuador: Una revisión sistemática de literatura

INTRODUCTION. Photovoltaic and wind renewable generation has grown exponentially in recent years worldwide, in Ecuador this technology has not been the exception, as several photovoltaic and wind power plants have been installed, increasing the generation of renewable energy. OBJECTIVE. This article presents a systematic review of the literature on operational photovoltaic and wind power plants in Ecuador, offering a perspective on the renewable sources connected to the national energy system. METHOD. Through a bibliographic search in the Scopus database, 8 publications were obtained that met the eligibility criteria, in addition to reports issued by government entities, to ensure that the information and technical aspects are accurate. RESULTS. The documentary analysis allows us to know the current status of photovoltaic and wind power plants, identifying their installed capacity, technology used, and operational characteristics. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. The information collected provides a solid basis for understanding the current status and development prospects of photovoltaic and wind power generation in Ecuador. Despite certain limitations related to the availability of data in open sources, it was possible to obtain significant information on the main renewable plants in the country. These results serve as a basis for future research aimed at the expansion and optimization of renewable energies in the national context..

Prosumer networks – A key enabler of control over renewable energy resources

The global challenges of recent years have exacerbated the energy crisis and highlighted the need for reactive and resilient energy systems. This paper emphasises the role of collaborative networks of prosumers in exploiting renewable energy sources to achieve sovereignty over critical resources. A bibliometric study reveals significant discrepancies between countries in statutory energy policies for renewable energy integration and incentives to prosumerism. A dataset of 27 Romanian individual prosumers illustrates the differences in load profiles between residential and industrial prosumers in a temperate continental climate, highlighting the benefits and limits of increasing the share of renewable energy in the national energy system. The study shows the advantage of aggregators balancing production and consumption, provided enough storage capability is available. It also illustrates the evolution of Romanian prosumers, discussing key regulatory and technological factors, advantages, and barriers to collaboration. This research offers municipalities, public authorities, and infrastructure operators a path towards energy independence, in alignment with international efforts toward the adoption of renewable energy. The study provides valuable insights into the benefits and challenges of renewable energy integration, offering practical solutions for achieving energy independence. It also offers relevant information in the effort of legislative harmonization to enable efficient and secure integration of new actors in the electricity system, encouraging responsible prosumers and aggregators and discouraging opportunistic aggregation

Assessment of climate change mitigation potential of the Kosovo energy and transport sector

The Energy and transport sector in Kosovo are the main emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) with a share of about 85% in total annual emissions. In energetic sector, 95-97% of emissions are associated with the electricity generation due to the predominant role of lignite fuelled power plants. The electricity sector contributes about 80% of total CO2 emissions in Kosovo. Those make the energy and transport sector the main emitters of CO2 and also the main target for CO2 emissions reduction. The National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030 aims to ensure a reliable supply of energy for Kosovo and proposes targets for renewable, energy efficiency, and greenhouse gas reductions. This paper presents analyses of different time frame scenarios for development of the Kosovo energy system in relation to climate change mitigation potential of the Kosovo energy and transport sector. The national energy system of Kosovo is modelled using EnergyPLAN software which integrates energy for electricity, transport and heat, and includes hourly fluctuations of energy demand and energy production. Three scenarios of Kosovo Energy system are modelled; starting point scenario 2019 and two long term scenarios 2030 with 23.3% and 41.8% share of renewable. An analysis of the overall energy system costs and security of supply with a main focus in electricity sector of the three scenarios is performed.

The Technical and Economic Aspects of Integrating Energy Sectors for Climate Neutrality

With the development of an energy sector based on renewable primary sources, structural changes are emerging for the entire national energy system. Initially, it was estimated that energy generation based on fossil fuels would decrease until its disappearance. However, the evolution of CO2 capture capacity leads to a possible coexistence for a certain period with the renewable energy sector. The paper develops this concept of the coexistence of the two systems, with the positioning of green hydrogen not only within the renewable energy sector but also as a transformation vector for carbon dioxide captured in the form of synthetic fuels, such as CH4 and CH3OH. The authors conducted pilot-scale research on CO2 capture with green H2, both for pure (captured) CO2 and for CO2 found in combustion gases. The positive results led to the respective recommendation. The research conducted by the authors meets the strict requirements of the current energy phase, with the authors considering that wind and solar energy alone are not sufficient to meet current energy demand. The paper also analyzes the economic aspects related to price differences for energy produced in the two sectors, as well as their interconnection. The technical aspect, as well as the economic aspect, of storage through various other solutions besides hydrogen has been highlighted. The development of the renewable energy sector and its demarcation from the fossil fuel energy sector, even with the transcendent vector represented by green hydrogen, leads to the deepening of dispersion aspects between the electricity sector and the thermal energy sector, a less commonly mentioned aspect in current works, but of great importance. The purpose of this paper is to highlight energy challenges during the current transition period towards climate neutrality, along with solutions proposed by the authors to be implemented in this phase. The current stage of combustion of the CH4−H2 mixture imposes requirements for the capture of the resulting CO2.

The Use of Fuzzy Modelling Based on Expert Knowledge to Determine Poland’s Energy Security Index Taking into Account Political Conditions

This article presents the results of research on the energy security index in Poland. Since the development of renewable energy sources forced by the transformation of the national energy system will require an increased supply of rare earth elements, the level of demand for these metals was taken into account when determining the energy security index. Furthermore, the development of renewable energy sources in Poland will directly depend on the volume of energy demand and, as the events of previous years have shown, on political and legal conditions, especially in the case of wind energy. Since some of these factors are qualitative, it was impossible to use a quantitative method. Therefore, fuzzy sets were used. Fuzzy modelling is based on expert knowledge. Using this method, the authors created three alternative scenarios for the development of Poland’s energy security index: pessimistic, optimistic, and the most probable.

Swedish wind power expansion: Conflicting responsibilities between state and municipalities

Sweden has experienced two decades of wind power expansion and enters a broad diffusion phase. In this study the aim is to deepen the knowledge of the municipal role in this phase in relation to national wind power policy. Local public officials and politicians was interviewed in fourteen Swedish municipalities. The results show that municipal representatives experience great uncertainty about the responsibilities and incentives they have in the energy transition – responsibilities that are difficult to interpret but also difficult to realize in practice. In conclusion, unclear State policy, increased social resistance, lacking municipal capabilities, and a market-driven planning regime adds a burden of incongruous responsibility on municipalities, which risks enforcing uncertainties in the transition of the national energy system. The study brings socio-technical insight to the global expansion of renewable energy within decentralized political systems.

Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition

The aim of this paper is to present a decision support system (DSS) to capture the complexity of the transition of a national energy system to net zero in the context of multiple sustainability themes. The paper proposes an integrated assessment framework that combines dynamic systems modeling, sustainability indicators, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with direct stakeholder involvement. To illustrate the use of the DSS, the paper compares bundles of climate change policies that aim to decarbonize the road transport sector in Iceland. Eighteen scenarios and alternative development trajectories are defined for the Icelandic energy system based on a combination of three main driving forces. These are, firstly, economic development (three cases); secondly, changes in energy efficiency (two cases); and finally, three climate policy bundles aimed at increasing the share of electric vehicles. Based on the results from the integrated assessment framework, the performance scores of the climate policy bundles are compared across the following five sustainability themes: social impact; economic development; environmental impact; energy security; and technical aspects. The findings confirm that a different conclusion may be reached when multiple sustainability themes are applied in the selection of preferred policy bundles as compared to conventional techno-economic criteria. Banning the registration of fossil-fueled vehicles, combined with economic instruments, offers the best decarbonizing strategy to reach climate and energy policy goals simultaneously.

Flexibility from industrial demand-side management in net-zero sector-coupled national energy systems

National energy systems require flexibility to accommodate increasing amounts of variable renewable energy. This flexibility can be provided by demand-side management (DSM) from industry. However, the flexibility potential depends on the characteristics of each industrial process. The enormous diversity of industrial processes makes it challenging to evaluate the total flexibility provision from industry to sector-coupled energy systems. In this work, we quantify the maximum cost reductions due to industrial DSM in the net-zero sector-coupled Swiss energy system, and the relationship between cost reductions and various industrial process characteristics. We analyze the flexibility of industrial processes using a generic, process-agnostic model. Our results show that industrial DSM can reduce total energy system costs by up to 4.4%, corresponding to 20% of industry-related energy costs. The value of flexibility from industrial DSM depends not only on the process characteristics but also on the system’s flexibility alternatives, particularly for flexibility over seasonal time horizons. As one specific option for industrial DSM, we find that thermal energy storage (TES) technologies available today could realize between 28% and 61% of the maximum cost reductions from industrial DSM, making TES a promising DSM solution and showing that industrial DSM is an accessible and cost-effective flexibility option.

Simulation-based optimization concept for integrated assessment models: Case study MEDEAS-world

Simulation based optimization concept has been so far presented at local and national energy systems planning levels. This method represents a systematic way of dealing with uncertainties and combinatorial complexity when using modelling tools of very large size with significant number of possible policy inputs, and could be useful to analyse policy recommendations in broader models integrating more dimensions than energy. For the first time, the concept is successfully demonstrated using a working integrated assessment model (IAM), although some attempts have been mentioned in literature previously. IAMs aim to link main features of society, economy and energy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The concept has been demonstrated for the IAM MEDEAS-World using system dynamics platform Vensim (version 9.3.4.) for both simulation and optimization. For an optimization problem formulation, 12 decision variables are selected from numerous input model parameters, the gross domestic product per capita has been selected for a goal function from simulation result as quantifiable policy objective, while for the constraint CO2 emissions is selected as subject to binding targets. It is possible to compile the simulation code so that optimization running time is around 10 times shorter. Preliminary results show that it is possible to implement richer optimization problems without significant increases in the running time using personal computers. The main contribution of this work is to prove the concept of simulation-based optimization by a demonstration within a working IAM. This opens the way to promising future work to inform about optimal combinations of available policies within different storylines, as well as providing additional general understanding of the IAM which could allow to improve the model. The original Vensim code has been provided in the Appendix.

District Heating Deployment and Energy-Saving Measures to Decarbonise the Building Stock in 100% Renewable Energy Systems

Achieving a zero-emission building heating sector requires numerous strategies and detailed energy planning, in order to identify the optimal decarbonisation pathway. This work aims to assess the impact of district heating expansion and the implementation of energy-saving measures on the decarbonisation of the Italian building stock by 2050, analysing their combined impact, reciprocal effects, and technical–economic implications on the entire national energy system. The scenarios have been implemented and simulated with the H2RES software, a long-term energy planning optimisation model, built for the Italian national energy system. Results indicate that it is possible to decarbonise the heating system in an efficient and cost-effective manner by the year 2040. Heat pumps represent the optimal technology at both centralised and decentralised levels. District heating expansion is a priority for the decarbonisation of the building stock, allowing us to reduce costs, exploit thermal storage systems and provide system flexibility. In the best scenario, 40% of the Italian heat demand can be supplied by fourth-generation district heating. Energy-saving measures can reduce heat demand and primary energy but at higher annual costs and with a significant increase in investment. The combined simulation of the strategies within an optimisation model of the entire energy system enables the accurate assessment of the real impact of the various measures, considering their reciprocal effects and technical–economic implications.

Impact of temperature dependent coefficient of performance of heat pumps on heating systems in national and regional energy systems modelling

To successfully transition towards fully renewable energy systems, energy sectors that today are primarily autonomous should be closely integrated to increase system flexibility and maximise synergy from effective sector coupling. Heat pumps are one of the sector coupling technologies which enable a mutual integration of power and heat sectors. Heat pumps are viewed as a low-cost source of sustainable heat for both space heating and industrial processes. However, representation of heat pumps in energy system models is typically oversimplified by using a uniform coefficient of performance, which limits perception of the hourly temperature changes on heat pump efficiency, or by using generic heat pumps for all individual residential, district, or industrial heat supplies. The LUT Energy System Transition Model was expanded to examine the impact of utilisation of hourly coefficient of performance profiles and specific heat pumps for different applications. The results indicate that, in cold climate countries, the use of hourly coefficient of performance profiles has little impact on the heat supply structure and overall primary energy demand, but has a noticeable impact on the electricity supply and energy storage system. Though the cost of the optimised system stays on the same level, application of hourly COP profiles leads to a more accurate simulation of electricity consumption and energy storage operation. The separation of district and industrial heat pumps leads to a higher share of heat pumps in industrial heat supply and allows for a reduction in overall energy system primary energy demand by 1.8%.

Assessing and analysing energy system balance: A decision tree approach

Due to the impacts of climate change, the global energy system must undergo a green transformation. However, this transition process may entail both positive and negative impacts. Therefore, governments must formulate balanced energy policies to establish a secure, accessible, affordable, and environmentally sustainable energy system. To assist decision-makers in evaluating the status of energy systems and formulating rational energy policies to address the complex and dynamic challenges, this study focuses on proposing a method to assess and analyze the equilibrium of a nation's energy system. To achieve these objectives, we propose the Energy Balance Index as a comprehensive method for assessing the equilibrium of a country's energy system. Subsequently, we employ a decision tree-based model to analyze the impact of different factors on the Energy Balance Index. The findings reveal that environmental sustainability holds the most significant influence, followed by energy equity, while energy security has a minor impact. Moreover, the relative influence of these factors varies over time, with energy equity exerting a greater influence prior to 2015, and environmental sustainability emerging as the foremost determinant since then. Through development status analysis of China, this study provides valuable references and recommendations for decision-makers in designing energy policies.

Electricity in Public Passengers’ Transportation and the Impact on Consumption in the National Energy System

Abstract Electric drive systems in mobility solutions are increasingly being used by the manufacturers in the global automotive industry. The European strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 is also transposed into Romania’s Energy Strategy. An important part of this strategy is the use of electricity in public passenger transport to significantly reduce pollution in urban areas. The rapid pace in terms of the renewal of conventional urban transport with modern electrified solutions requires, at the same time, an analysis of the pressure that this new consumer can exert on the national energy system.

Model Prediction XGBoost for Perspective of Closing Cernavoda Reactor 1 and the Impact on the Romanian Energy System

Abstract Employing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies to analyze the progression of energy markets is imperative, as these methodologies facilitate the modeling of diverse domain-specific data to forecast developments in an exceedingly volatile market. Utilizing machine learning algorithms to model data concerning the Romanian energy sector proves beneficial, particularly in circumstances where significant changes necessitate adaptation to internal consumption demands, while mitigating substantial fluctuations in electricity prices. Such fluctuations can profoundly impact crucial national economic indicators.. In this paper, we aim to simulate such a situation for the moment when Romania will be obliged to shut down and modernize Reactor 1 at Cernavodă due to reaching the standard operating time for the CANDU model. We will use an XGBoost for Regression algorithm in which we will input data about the national energy system (consumption, energy quantities according to the energy system's production structure by resource types) from the period 2020-2023, and then we will simulate the shutdown of the reactor to analyze how the national energy market is influenced. Our findings not only reveal the indispensable role of predictive analysis through ML/AI models in anticipating market changes, but also provide practical insights for decision-makers aiming to optimize the national energy system so that when Reactor 1 at Cernavodă is shut down, the domestic market is affected as little as possible, considering that this reactor has supplied the national system with approximately 700 MWe/h over the past 20 years.

Analysis of Current Utilization of Hydrogen Energy

Hydrogen energy is recognized as a clean energy with the characteristics of convenient storage and transportation, diverse utilization ways, and a high utilization rate. It can help to solve the energy crisis, global warming, and environmental pollution. At present, many countries have listed hydrogen energy as an important part of the national energy system. This paper comprehensively considers the application of hydrogen energy in the field of energy and chemical industry, and summarizes the utilization status of hydrogen energy in the country and abroad as a clean renewable energy carrier in fuel cell vehicles and fuel cell forklifts. The utilization of hydrogen clean energy as an energy carrier is conducive to the collaborative development of renewable energy. It is pointed out that hydrogen production, storage and transportation, and fuel cell technology are still the key factors restricting the development of hydrogen energy.

Stacking Revenues From Flexible DERs in Multi-Scale Markets Using Tri-Level Optimization

Rapid proliferation of flexible Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) as a result of Net Zero Emissions objectives entails a profound shift in the paradigm of local and national energy systems. Currently, DERs' simultaneous participation in multiple markets is generally restricted, which undermines their profitability. With the aim of increasing the number of business cases for them, a tri-level optimization problem that seeks the maximisation of revenues from DERs is proposed. The optimization problem considers simultaneous participation of different flexible DERs, such as, Electric Vehicles (EVs), Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs) and Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVACs), in national and local markets. Markets are cleared sequentially, and the model is recast into a tractable single-level problem using its dual formulation and strong duality condition. Results from a case study based on the IEEE 14 bus transmission network, a realistic distribution network and SimBench dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in increasing profits compared with a baseline scenario.

An Analysis of Risks and Challenges to the Polish Power Industry in the Year 2024

The green transition is a challenge for the Polish economy and energy sector. In this paper, the expert method of analysis was applied and findings revealed that the challenges and prerequisites for an effective transformation of the power sector mainly include technical, technological and organizational issues of energy production and use. The provision of electricity at competitive prices and with a low carbon footprint, for individual consumers and industry, is a prerequisite for maintaining the well-being of the population and ensuring the competitiveness of domestically produced goods. The ambitious climate policy goals of the European Union require immediate action and call for radical changes in the Polish energy sector; in the coming years, it must drastically reduce the amount of energy produced from fossil fuels and replace it with so-called green energy from renewable sources. The main purpose of this article was to highlight the need to modify Poland’s energy policy until 2040 in order to make it more consistent with the ambitious climate goals of the European Union. This article also shows that Poland’s energy transition must include a shift from fossil fuels to renewables, while ensuring that energy security is stabilized by the current energy and generation resources. To this end, we discuss the issues of creating reserves in the national energy system for the entire period of Poland’s energy transition.

From Local Energy Communities towards National Energy System: A Grid-Aware Techno-Economic Analysis

Energy communities are key actors in the energy transition since they optimally interconnect renewable energy capacities with the consumers. Despite versatile objectives, they usually aim at improving the self-consumption of renewable electricity within low-voltage grids to maximize revenues. In addition, energy communities are an excellent opportunity to supply renewable electricity to regional and national energy systems. However, effective price signals have to be designed to coordinate the needs of the energy infrastructure with the interests of these local stakeholders. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the integration of energy communities at the national level with a bottom–up approach. District energy systems with a building scale resolution are modeled in a mixed-integer linear programming problem. The Dantzig–Wolfe decomposition is applied to reduce the computational time. The methodology lies within the framework of a renewable energy hub, characterized by a high share of photovoltaic capacities. Both investments into equipment and its operation are considered. The model is applied on a set of five typical districts and weather locations representative of the Swiss building stock. The extrapolation to the national scale reveals a heterogeneous photovoltaic potential throughout the country. Present electricity tariffs promote a maximal investment into photovoltaic panels in every region, reaching an installed capacity of 67.2 GW and generating 80 TWh per year. Placed in perspective with the optimal PV capacity forecast at 15.4 GW peak at the national level, coordinated investment between local and national actors is needed to prevent dispensable expenses. An uncoordinated design is expected to increase the total costs for residential energy systems from 12% to 83% and curtails 48% of local renewable electricity.

The hydrogen perspective for Türkiye, which is on the Asia-Europe energy transition route. Can Türkiye become hydrogen hub?

This study examines the potential for hydrogen to undertake a leading role in the transition to sustainable energy in Türkiye. Türkiye, with its well-established energy infrastructure and increasing focus on renewable energy, has the potential to undertake a significant part in the worldwide hydrogen market. The research uses a multi-level perspective to analyse the interactions between different region connected with Türkiye, and the processes and strategies within the national energy system. The findings suggest that hydrogen production and transport in Türkiye has the potential to significantly contribute to the decarbonization of the industry and flexibility services in Asia, Europe and Africa. However, the ongoing advancement in the field of hydrogen in Türkiye is at a critical juncture where coordinated efforts are necessary to fully realize its potential. Türkiye recently announced the Hydrogen Technologies Strategy and Roadmap. Under the new Hydrogen Technologies Strategy and Roadmap, Türkiye plans to significantly increase the production of hydrogen. Türkiye plans to significantly increase its installed electrolyser capacity to support the production of hydrogen. Specifically, the plan aims to increase the installed capacity to 2 GW by 2030, 5 GW by 2035, and 70 GW by 2050. Turkey's strategic investments and policy adjustments could propel its green hydrogen production to 3.4 million tons yearly by 2050. With an anticipated domestic demand for hydrogen at 1.9 million tons annually, Turkey could potentially export between 1.5 and 1.9 million tons yearly by 2050. Türkiye boasts an extensive network of transmission and distribution pipelines for natural gas, totalling 10,000 km, including those with large diameters. The existing pipelines could transport hydrogen in its pure form or blended with natural gas. The natural gas pipeline capacity in Turkey stands at 32 billion cubic meters. This infrastructure enables the transportation of an estimated 575 million tons of hydrogen yearly to neighboring countries by employing a mix of 20 % hydrogen and natural gas. With an extensive network of natural gas transmission and distribution pipelines, Turkey positions itself as an integral part of the interconnected hydrogen energy infrastructure, linking the nation with Europe and neighboring regions. The results of this study present new approaches into the dynamics of the energy system and contribute to ongoing discussions about transition routes and consider the current status of hydrogen in Türkiye, the country's renewable energy potential, the policy and regulatory framework, and the infrastructure and market conditions necessary in order to foster the growth of a hydrogen hub.