National Climate Change Mitigation Policies Research Articles

Assessing the economic implications of national climate change mitigation policies on cities: A CGE analysis of Auckland, New Zealand

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have proven to be instrumental in the climate policy literature. Although their use at the sub-national level has increased, their application to assess the implications of national climate policies on cities is scarce due to the low availability of city-level economic and environmental data. Cities could play an instrumental role in the fight against climate change as they are home to more than half of the world population, generate more than 80% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and are responsible for 75% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. National CGE assessments of climate policies overlooking cities could result in missing major opportunities to achieve ambitious reduction targets considering that cities are centres of innovation and wealth. Hence, the objective of this study is to fill that gap in the literature by developing and using a recursive dynamic, multi-regional CGE model to link a city's economy to the rest of the nation to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts from national GHG emissions reduction pathways. The city of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) has been used as a case study due to the city's proactive climate mitigation plans. The model and scenarios used resemble the ones developed by the New Zealand Climate Change Commission (CCC) to inform national policy advise provided to the government. Additional scenarios were developed to incorporate Auckland's growth and climate strategies. The results showed that in contrast to the rest of New Zealand, the impacts on the Auckland economy are more pronounced as reflected by the more drastic percent changes (with respect to baseline) of the regional GDP (−6% for Auckland and −1% for NZ) and consumer welfare (−5% for Auckland and 1% for NZ). The more pronounced impacts on Auckland are due to the difference in profile emissions (e.g., urban versus rural sectors), fewer low-emission technological alternatives (e.g., rural technologies do not cater to urban sectors' needs), and indirect impacts from importing agricultural products with a higher price tag due to rising GHG prices. This study's contribution in the climate policy literature is to serve as evidence and precedent to carefully evaluate the nuances encountered in complex urban systems when developing national climate policies considering that the number of countries establishing legally binding reduction targets is continually increasing.

The effects of seaward distance on above and below ground carbon stocks in estuarine mangrove ecosystems

BackgroundMangrove forests have gained recognition for their potential role in climate change mitigation due to carbon sequestration in live trees, and carbon storage in the sediments trapped by mangrove tree roots and pneumatophores. Africa hosts about 19% of the world’s mangroves, yet relatively few studies have examined the carbon stocks of African mangroves. The available studies report considerable differences among sites and amongst the different pools of carbon stocks. None considered the effects of seaward distance. We present details of AGC and SOC carbon stocks for Lindi in Tanzania, and focus on how these values differ with increasing seaward distance and, how our results compare to those reported elsewhere across Africa.ResultsAGC ranged between 11 and 55 Mg C ha−1, but was not significantly affected by seaward distance. SOC for 0–1 m depth ranged from 154 to 484, with a mean of 302 Mg C ha−1. SOC was significantly negatively correlated with seaward distance. Mangrove type (estuarine/oceanic), soil erosion, soil depth may explain these differences We note important methodological differences in previous studies on carbon stocks in mangroves in Africa.ConclusionThis study indicates that seaward distance has an important effect on SOC stocks in the Lindi region of Tanzania. SOC should be fully incorporated into national climate change mitigation policies. Studies should report seaward distance and to describe the type of mangrove stand to make results easily comparable across sites and to assess the true value of Blue Carbon in Africa. We recommend focusing on trees > 10 cm diameter for AGC, and sampling soils to at least 1 m depth for SOC, which would provide a more complete assessment of the potentially considerable mangrove carbon store.

The Economy-Wide Value-at-Risk from the Exposure of Natural Capital to Climate Change and Extreme Natural Events: The Case of Wind Damage and Forest Recreational Services in New Zealand

The long-term management of natural capital is essential for the stable and resilient flow of ecosystem services for future generations facing climatic uncertainty. Understanding its resilience to extreme natural events, using biological principles, and integrating them into more holistic systems-wide modelling techniques is crucial to evaluate and design the wider economic impacts from alternative management interventions. Here we developed a probabilistic and system-wide bio-economic model to measure extreme economic impacts from natural events using the financial concept of Value at Risk. We have applied the new extreme economic impact metric to measure the economy-wide impact from the disruption of mountain-biking recreational services in the Whakarewarewa peri-urban forest in Rotorua, New Zealand from a potential windthrow event. We identified that extreme natural events, such as windthrows, could exert a substantial impact on the urban forest-dependent regional economy. This impact could potentially be intensified by the CO2 forest fertilization effects predicted under future climate scenarios and by adopting low-intensity silvicultural regimes currently rewarded by national climate change mitigation policies. Some of the insights from this study could be the precursors to develop robust adaptation strategies using robust decision-making techniques considering inclusive environmental-economic accounting frameworks.

How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment

In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate change under various different “scenarios”, none of which are explicitly defined as BAU. Moreover, all of these estimates are ab initio computer model projections, and policymakers do not currently have equivalent empirically derived estimates for comparison. Therefore, estimates of the total future human-caused global warming from the three main greenhouse gases of concern (CO2, CH4, and N2O) up to 2100 are here derived for BAU conditions. A semi-empirical approach is used that allows direct comparisons between GCM-based estimates and empirically derived estimates. If the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases implies a Transient Climate Response (TCR) of ≥ 2.5 °C or an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of ≥ 5.0 °C then the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of keeping human-caused global warming below 2.0 °C will have been broken by the middle of the century under BAU. However, for a TCR < 1.5 °C or ECS < 2.0 °C, the target would not be broken under BAU until the 22nd century or later. Therefore, the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “likely” range estimates for TCR of 1.0 to 2.5 °C and ECS of 1.5 to 4.5 °C have not yet established if human-caused global warming is a 21st century problem.

Perceptions of Corruption, Political Distrust, and the Weakening of Climate Policy

This article presents a theory of the relationship between public perceptions of political corruption and the strength of national climate change mitigation policies, which is then formally tested in a time-series-cross-section analysis of twenty industrialized democracies from 1990 to 2012. The analysis reveals that greater perceptions of corruption are highly and robustly associated with weaker climate policies—especially nonmarket policies—when controlling for relevant political and economic variables. A government perceived by citizens to be “mildly corrupt” but that transitions to “very clean” would be associated with strengthening nonmarket climate policies from levels in Greece to levels in Sweden or from levels in Poland to those in Denmark. Lax market-based climate policies are also significantly linked to greater perceived corruption, but notably, they are robustly associated with the size of domestic energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries, which have received substantial environmental tax exemptions and free allocations even in the greenest, high-trust, low-corruption democracies.

Perceptions of Corruption, Political Distrust, and the Weakening of Climate Policy

I present a theory of the relationship between public perceptions of political corruption and the strength of national climate change mitigation policies, which is then formally tested in a time-series-cross-sectional (TSCS) analysis of twenty industrialized democracies from 1990-2012. While perceived corruption is often a symptom of actual institutional corruption that undermines government performance across a variety of policy domains, the perception itself can be particularly pernicious to climate policymaking: by inflaming political distrust, distracting public discourse from foresighted policy debate, bolstering the strategic influence of energy-intensive businesses opposing emissions regulations, and biasing legislatures to adopt a laissez-faire or tawdry approach. The analysis reveals that greater perceptions of corruption are highly and robustly associated with weaker climate policies - especially non-market policies - when controlling for relevant political and economic variables. A government perceived by citizens to be mildly corrupt but that transitions to very clean would be associated with strengthening non-market climate policies from levels in Greece to levels in Sweden, or from levels in the United States to those in the Netherlands. Weak market-based climate policies are also significantly linked to greater perceived corruption, but notably, such policies are robustly associated with the size of domestic energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries, which have received substantial environmental tax exemptions and free allocations even in the greenest, high-trust, low-corruption democracies.

The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies.

Reducing domestic carbon dioxide and other associated emissions can lead to short-term, localized health benefits. Quantifying and incorporating these health co-benefits into the development of national climate change mitigation policies may facilitate the adoption of stronger policies. There is, however, a dearth of research exploring the role of health co-benefits on the development of such policies. To address this knowledge gap, research was conducted in Australia involving the analysis of several data sources, including interviews carried out with Australian federal government employees directly involved in the development of mitigation policies. The resulting case study determined that, in Australia, health co-benefits play a minimal role in the development of climate change mitigation policies. Several factors influence the extent to which health co-benefits inform the development of mitigation policies. Understanding these factors may help to increase the political utility of future health co-benefits studies.

Data of a willingness to pay survey for national climate change mitigation policies in Germany.

The dataset includes responses from a contingent valuation study about the national climate change mitigation policies in Germany. The online survey was carried out in the spring of 2014. It assesses the willingness to pay for an increase of the national CO2 reduction target by 10 percentage points, which closely represents Germany׳s climate change mitigation strategy. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of the following three question formats: The dichotomous choice referendum, the dissonance minimizing referendum and the two-sided payment ladder. The data can be used to investigate the influence of alternative statistical approaches on the willingness to pay measures and their comparison across question formats.

The role of question format for the support for national climate change mitigation policies in Germany and the determinants of WTP

This contingent valuation survey examines the willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation in Germany. Willingness to pay is assessed by using a classic dichotomous choice referendum format and a two-way payment ladder in a split-sample design. We find that mean WTP under the referendum format is more than twice the WTP in the payment ladder format, but median WTP does not differ. Moreover, we test the possible effect of different determinants on WTP. Determinants that considerably influence WTP are personal norm, climate change scepticism, agreement with the German Renewable Energy Law and individualistic cognition. Income and gender are also important predictors.

National Climate Change Mitigation Measures and Their Implications for the Multilateral Trading System: Key Findings of the WTO/UNEP Report on Trade and Climate Change

This article presents the key findings of the final chapter of the recently published World Trade Organization (WTO)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Report on Trade and Climate Change. It provides an overview of the range of national climate change mitigation policies, including possible border measures, and relevant WTO rules. The development of such policies has increasingly gained pace over the past two decades, and their scope and complexity have increased. It is therefore fundamental to understand better their key features in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development, and trade.