National Centers For Environmental Prediction/Department Of Energy Research Articles

Climatology and circulation conditions of potential foehn occurrence in the Polish Tatra Mountains

AbstractFoehn wind occurrence has generated great interest among researchers because of the destructive power and impact on the local climate. Based on anemometric data provided by a high-mountain station on Kasprowy Wierch in the Polish Tatra Mountains, the characteristics of the potential occurrence of foehn wind (referred to as halny in the Polish Tatras) are presented, including its speed and duration, as well as the frequency of occurrence on a multiannual, annual and daily basis. Halny winds occur most frequently in the cold period of the year (Oct–Feb), with the frequency peaking in November, and sporadically in the summer. The occurrence of foehn winds is strongly dependent on the synoptic situation. Therefore, the main aim of the study was to identify the circulation conditions conducive to their occurrence on the Polish side of the Tatra Mountains. Circulation conditions responsible for foehn formation were analysed using gridded sea level pressure (SLP) data from the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy) reanalyses. The occurrence of foehn wind in the Tatra Mountains is associated with a low pressure system over north-western Europe, and above normal pressure over south-eastern Europe. The location and intensity of the centres of atmospheric influence on foehn days can vary, as indicated by the three types of pressure systems favouring the occurrence of the phenomenon, distinguished by the hierarchical grouping method. In type 1, the cyclonic centre spreads over northern Europe, in type 2 over western Europe and in type 3 over north-western Europe. In types 1 and 3, the air masses come from the south-west, and in type 2 more from the south. Type 3 is characterised by the greatest horizontal pressure gradients among the three circulation types and with the greatest SLP anomalies.

Investigation of Antarctic Precipitable Water Vapor Variability and Trend from 18 Year (2001 to 2018) Data of Four Reanalyses Based on Radiosonde and GNSS Observations

Precipitable water vapor (PWV) plays a vital role in climate research, especially for Antarctica in which meteorological observations are insufficient due to the adverse climate and topography therein. Reanalysis data sets provide a great opportunity for Antarctic water vapor research. This study investigates the climatological PWV means, variability and trends over Antarctica from four reanalyses, including the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA5), the Second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE), in the period of 2001–2018 based on radiosonde and GNSS observations. PWV data from the ERA5, MERRA-2, JRA-55 and NCEP/DOE have been evaluated by radiosonde and GNSS observations, showing that ERA5 and MERRA-2 perform better than JRA-55 and NCEP/DOE with mean root mean square (RMS) errors below 1.2 mm. The climatological PWV mean distribution over Antarctica roughly shows a decreasing trend from west to east, with the highest content in summer and the lowest content in winter. The PWV variability is generally small over Antarctica, showing a seasonal dependence that is larger in the cold season and smaller in the warm season. PWV trends for all reanalyses at most Antarctic regions are insignificant and most reanalyses present overall drying trends from 2001 to 2018, except for ERA5 exhibiting a moistening trend. PWV trends also show seasonal and regional dependence. All reanalyses are generally consistent with radiosonde and GNSS observations in reproducing the PWV means (mean differences within 1.1 mm), variability (mean differences within 3%) and trends (mean differences within 6.4% decade−1) over Antarctica, except for NCEP/DOE showing spurious variability and trends in East Antarctica. Results can help us further understand these four reanalysis PWV products and promote climate research in Antarctica.

Application of GCM Bias Correction to RCM Simulations of East Asian Winter Climate

Both the global circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) simulations suffer from model biases that eventually result in significant errors in regional forecasts. This model bias issue is addressed using the bias correction approach. This study examines the influence of bias correction on the performance of downscaling simulations of the East Asian winter climate using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). To assess the bias correction approach, we conducted three sets of simulations for 25 winters (December to February) from 1982 to 2006 over East Asia. The GRIMs were forced by the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis data, (2) original NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) data, and (3) bias-corrected CFS data. The GCM climatological means were adjusted based on the NCEP–DOE reanalysis data. The bias correction method was applied to zonal and meridional wind, temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, and sea surface temperature of the CFS data. The GCM-driven experiments with/without bias correction were compared with the reanalysis-driven simulation. The results of this comparison suggest that the application of bias correction improves the downscaled climate in terms of the climatological mean, inter-annual variability, and extreme events owing to the elimination of errors in large-scale circulations. The effect of bias correction on the simulated extreme event is not as significant as those on the climatological mean and inter-annual variability, but the increased skill appears to be a clue for potential use for predicting extreme events.

Relationship between Winter Precipitation in Barents–Kara Seas and September–October Eastern Siberian Sea Ice Anomalies

In this study, we applied the 1988–2017 monthly average sea ice concentration data from the Met Office Hadley Centre and the 1988–2017 monthly average reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis II to analyze the relationship between the winter precipitation in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) and the previous autumn eastern Siberian Sea ice anomalies. Through the correlation analysis, we found that the correlation between eastern Siberian Sea ice and the BKS winter precipitation was strongest in September and weakest in November. The results indicated that, when the eastern Siberian Sea ice extent decreased in September–October, a significant positive geopotential height anomaly would occur in the coming winter (December–February) in the Norwegian–Barents region. This result in turn caused anomalies in the northward meridional wind. Consequently, the anomalous water vapor from the mid-latitude Atlantic to the Arctic passed through the Greenland Sea before finally reaching the BKS. The meridional wind also caused the temperature in said seas to increase and the BKS ice to melt, leading to an increase of winter precipitation. We also found that the increase of the Siberian high (SH) in winter was related to the decrease of autumn East Siberian Sea ice extent and the increase of the winter BKS precipitation anomaly. Further research still needs to be refined for this issue in future studies.

Evaluation of NCEP‐2 and CFSR reanalysis seasonal temperature data in China using detrended fluctuation analysis

ABSTRACTIn the present study, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP‐II) reanalysis (NCEP‐2) and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) seasonal temperature data for China was quantitatively evaluated by using detrended fluctuation analysis. The results indicate that the quality of the NCEP‐2 temperature data is the highest in autumn, while the quality of CFSR data set is the highest in summer. Both the quality of NCEP‐2 and that of CFSR temperature data is the lowest in winter. The quality is very low in eastern Tibetan Plateau and most of Xinjiang at a significance level of 0.05 for the NCEP‐2 and CFSR reanalysis temperature data including three elements: the daily average temperature (Tmean), the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and the daily minimum temperature (Tmin). The performance of the NCEP‐2 Tmean data is poorer than those of the NCEP‐2 Tmax and Tmin data for all four seasons, while the performance of CFSR Tmean is better than that of CFSR Tmax and Tmin for all four seasons. In addition, the NCEP‐2 Tmax, Tmin and CFSR Tmean, Tmax data perform well in most of central and eastern China for all four seasons. The quality of the CFSR Tmean is better than that of the NCEP‐2 Tmean for all four seasons. However, the NCEP‐2 Tmax and Tmin data have higher credibility than that of the CFSR Tmax and Tmin data for all four seasons. Therefore, it is important to consider the reliability of the NCEP‐2 and CFSR daily temperature reanalysis data in different districts and seasons when drawing conclusions from the different reanalysis data.

Feature analysis and primary causes of pre-flood season “cumulative effect” of torrential rain over South China

When persistent rainfall occurs frequently over South China, meso-scale and micro-scale synoptic systems persist and expand in space and time and eventually form meso-scale and long-scale weather processes. The accumulation of multiple torrential rain processes is defined as a “cumulative effect” of torrential rain (CETR) event. In this paper, daily reanalysis datasets collected by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) during 1979–2014 are used to study the anomalous features and causes of heavy CETR events over South China. The results show that there is a significant difference in the spatial distribution of the heavy CETR events. Based on the center position of the CETR, the middle region displayed middle-region-heavy CETR events while the western region displayed west-region-heavy CETR events. El Nino events in the previous period (December, January, February, March (DJFM)) are major extra-forcing factors of middle-region-heavy CETR events, which is beneficial for the continuous, anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone and strengthens the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), extending it more westward than normal. The primary water vapor source for precipitation in middle-region-heavy CETR events is the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean. The major extra-forcing factor of a west-region-heavy CETR is the negative anomaly in the southern Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) during the previous period (DJFM). This factor is beneficial for strengthening the cross-equatorial flow and westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea (SCS) and early SCS summer monsoon onset. The primary water vapor source of precipitation in the west-region-heavy CETR is the southern TIO.

Climatology and changes in cloud cover in the area of the Black, Caspian, and Aral seas (1991–2010): a comparison of surface observations with satellite and reanalysis products

ABSTRACTThis article presents a climatology of total cloud cover (TCC) in the area of the three inland Eurasian seas (Black, Caspian, and Aral Sea). Analyses are performed on the basis of 20 years of data (1991–2010), collected from almost 200 ground stations. Average TCC is 49%, with broad spatial and seasonal variability: minimum TCC values are found in summer and to the southeast, whereas maximum values correspond to winter and to the northwest. For the whole area, linear trend analyses show that TCC did not vary during the study period. We only detected a statistically significant positive trend (+1.2% decade−1) in autumn. We obtained different results for the regions delimited by means of a principal component analysis: a clear decrease, both for the annual, spring, and summer series, was detected for the south of Black Sea, while increasing TCC was found for the annual, autumn, and winter series in the north Caucasus and the west and north of Black Sea. We also analysed the TCC data from global gridded products, including satellite projects [International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended (PATMOS‐x), cLoud, Albedo & Radiation (CLARA)], reanalyses [ERA‐interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE), Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)], and surface observations [Climatic Research Unit (CRU)]. Although all these products capture the seasonal evolution over the study area, they differ substantially both among them and in relation to the ground observations: reanalyses produce much lower values of TCC, while ISCCP and CLARA provide a summer minimum that is too high. Trend analyses applied to these data generally showed a decrease in TCC; only CRU and NCEP/DOE tally with the ground data as regards the absence of overall trends. These results are discussed in relation to previous studies presenting trends of other variables such as sunshine duration, diurnal temperature range, or precipitation; we also discuss the connections with changes in synoptic patterns and environmental changes, in particular in the Aral Sea region.

On the upstream inputs into the MODIS primary productivity products using biometric data from oil palm plantations

This study evaluated the influence of upstream inputs into the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) primary productivity products, termed the MOD17, at tropical oil palm plantations (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.). Evaluation of MOD17 using oil palm plantations as test sites is ideal because the plantations are cultivated on large areas which are comparable with the size of MODIS pixels. It is difficult to find test sites covered by other single species in a whole pixel. The upstream inputs studied included (1) MODIS land cover, (2) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Reanalysis 2 meteorological data set, (3) MODIS leaf area index/fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (LAI/fPAR), and (4) MODIS maximum light-use efficiency (maximum LUE). Oil palm biometric and local meteorological data were utilized as ground data. Furthermore, scaling up oil palm LAI and fPAR from plot scale to regional scale (Peninsular Malaysia) was done empirically by correlating oil palm LAI derived from the hemispherical photography technique with radiance information from the Disaster Monitoring Constellation 2 satellite (UK-DMC 2). The upscaled LAI/fPAR developed in this study was used to evaluate the MODIS LAI/fPAR. The results showed that the MODIS land-cover product has an overall accuracy of 78.8% when compared to the Peninsular Malaysia land-use map produced by the Department of Agriculture, Malaysia. Regarding the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data set, vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) contain large uncertainties in our study area. However, MODIS LAI and fPAR were correlated relatively well with the upscaled LAI (R2 = 0.50) and the upscaled fPAR (R2 = 0.60), respectively. The constant values of maximum LUE for croplands and evergreen broadleaf forest ecosystems are lower than the maximum LUE of oil palm. The relative predictive error assessment showed that the MOD17 net primary productivity (NPP) overestimated oil palm NPP derived from biometric methods by 142–204%. We replaced the upstream inputs of MOD17 by the local inputs for estimating oil palm GPP and NPP in Peninsular Malaysia. This was done by (1) assigning maximum LUE for oil palm plantations as a constant at 1.68 g C m−2 day−1, (2) utilizing meteorological data from local meteorological stations, and (3) using the upscaled fPAR of oil palm plantations. The amount of oil palm GPP and NPP for Peninsular Malaysia in 2010 were estimated to be ~0.09 Pg C year−1 (or equivalent to ~0.33 Pg CO2 year−1) and ~0.03 Pg C year−1 (~0.11 Pg CO2 year−1), respectively, indicating that oil palm plantations in Peninsular Malaysia can play an important role in global carbon sequestration. In the future there is likely to be a demand for MODIS GPP and NPP products that are more accurate than those currently generated by MOD17. We recommend future developments of the MOD17 processing system to allow improvements in the upstream input parameters, in the manner described in this article, both for global processing and for the production of more accurate values for GPP and NPP at regional and local scales.

Comparison of surface air temperature derived from NCEP/DOE R2, ERA-Interim, and observations in the arid northwestern China: a consideration of altitude errors

The surface air temperatures measured at 68 meteorological stations in the arid northwestern China during 1979–2012 are compared with temperatures interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis 2 (NCEP R2) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim. The altitude effects on reanalysis temperature errors are discussed, and the interpolated reanalysis data are calibrated by altitude errors between reanalysis and observation. Using a simple correction method with a constant lapse rate, the elevation-related errors can be greatly removed and an improvement is achieved for the interpolated temperature from both NCEP R2 and ERA-Interim. The cold bias of reanalysis data becomes weak after calibration. On an annual basis, root mean square error of temperature derived from NCEP R2 for each stations has decreased from 6.0 (raw data) to 2.6 °C (calibrated data) and that from ERA-Interim has decreased from 3.2 to 1.4 °C. Similarly, correlation coefficients between raw reanalysis-based and observed temperature are 0.191 and 0.709 for NCEP R2 and ERA-Interim, respectively, whereas the correlation coefficients using the calibrated annual data are 0.819 and 0.932 for NCEP R2 and ERA-Interim, respectively. Generally, ERA-Interim is closer to the ground-based observations than NCEP R2. The topographic correction is more effective in summer than in winter, which may be related to the temperature inversion in winter. Evaluation and correction of reanalysis datasets is a crucial work before the gridded data are applied in climate research, and the altitude-related errors should be calibrated especially in the regions with complex topography.

Precipitation frequency analysis based on regional climate simulations in Central Alberta

Summary A Regional Climate Model (RCM), MM5 (the Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model), is used to simulate summer precipitation in Central Alberta. MM5 was set up with a one-way, three-domain nested framework, with domain resolutions of 27, 9, and 3 km, respectively, and forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The objective is to develop high resolution, grid-based Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves based on the simulated annual maximums of precipitation (AMP) data for durations ranging from 15-min to 24-h. The performance of MM5 was assessed in terms of simulated rainfall intensity, precipitable water, and 2-m air temperature. Next, the grid-based IDF curves derived from MM5 were compared to IDF curves derived from six RCMs of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) set up with 50-km grids, driven with NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy) Reanalysis II data, and regional IDF curves derived from observed rain gauge data (RG-IDF). The analyzed results indicate that 6-h simulated precipitable water and 2-m temperature agree well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. However, compared to RG-IDF curves, IDF curves based on simulated precipitation data of MM5 are overestimated especially for IDF curves of 2-year return period. In contract, IDF curves developed from NARCCAP data suffer from under-estimation and differ more from RG-IDF curves than the MM5 IDF curves. The over-estimation of IDF curves of MM5 was corrected by a quantile-based, bias correction method. By dynamically downscale the ERA-Interim and after bias correction, it is possible to develop IDF curves useful for regions with limited or no rain gauge data. This estimation process can be further extended to predict future grid-based IDF curves subjected to possible climate change impacts based on climate change projections of GCMs (general circulation models) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

A modeling analysis of rainfall and water cycle by the cloud-resolving WRF model over the western North Pacific

Simulated regional precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events, and the regional hydrologic budgets over the western North Pacific region during the period from May to June 2008 were investigated with the high-resolution (4-km grid spacing) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF v3.2.1) model with explicit cloud microphysics. The model initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis 2 data.

Large-scale circulation patterns favourable to tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific and associated barotropic energy conversions

Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) reanalysis and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data for the period 1991–2010, this study classifies five large-scale circulation patterns in association with the tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP): the monsoon shear (MS), the monsoon confluence (MC), the reverse-oriented monsoon trough (RMT), the monsoon gyre (MG), and the trade wind easterlies (TE). The first three patterns account for about 80% of tropical cyclogeneses. Through a diagnosis of energetics, it is found that the tropical cyclogenesis in the MS, MC, and RMT patterns is highly associated with the barotropic energy conversion. Analysis shows that the horizontal shear of basic zonal flow provides a favourable condition for the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) growth in the MS pattern. When a TC forms in the MC pattern, the horizontal shear and convergence of basic zonal flow are both important for the EKE growth. When the basic flow is the RMT pattern, in addition to the horizontal shear of basic flow, zonal and meridional wind convergence play an important role for tropical cyclogenesis over the WNP and the South China Sea, respectively. However, the barotropic energy conversion appears not to be a main mechanism for the EKE growth in the MG and TE patterns. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

A Global Atmospheric Analysis Dataset Downscaled from the NCEP–DOE Reanalysis

Abstract A global atmospheric analysis dataset is constructed via a spectral nudging technique. The 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis from January 1979 to February 2011 is utilized to force large-scale information, whereas a higher-resolution structure is resolved by a global model with improved physics. The horizontal resolution of the downscaled data is about 100 km, twice that of the NCEP–DOE reanalysis. A comparison of the 31-yr downscaled data with reanalysis data and observations reveals that the downscaled precipitation climatology is improved by correcting inherent biases in the lower-resolution reanalysis, and large-scale patterns are preserved. In addition, it is found that global downscaling is an efficient way to generate high-quality analysis data due to the use of a higher-resolution model with improved physics. The uniqueness of the obtained data lies in the fact that an undesirable decadal trend in the analysis due to a change in the amount of observations used in reanalysis is avoided. As such, a downscaled dataset may be used to investigate changes in the hydrological cycle and related mechanisms.

The combined influence of background climate and urbanization on the regional warming in Southeast China

Based on China homogenized land surface air temperature and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis data (R-2), the main contributors to surface air temperature increase in Southeast China were investigated by comparing trends of urban and rural temperature series, as well as observed and R-2 data, covering two periods of 1954–2005 and 1979–2005. Results from urban-rural comparison indicate that urban heat island (UHI) effects on regional annual and autumn minimum temperature increases account for 10.5% and 12.0% since 1954, but with smaller warming attribution of 6.2% and 10.6% since 1979. The results by comparing observations with R-2 surface temperature data suggest that land use change accounts for 32.9% and 28.8% in regional annual and autumn minimum temperature increases since 1979. Accordingly, the influence of land use change on regional temperature increase in Southeast China is much more noticeable during the last 30 years. However, it indicates that UHI effect, overwhelmed by the warming change of background climate, does not play a significant role in regional warming over Southeast China during the last 50 years.

Taiwan Yushan snowfall activity and its association with atmospheric circulation from 1979 to 2009

Yushan is the most famous location for snow in Taiwan, while snowfall in the subtropical zone is rare. When it is snowing in Yushan, people are experiencing unusually cold and wet weather elsewhere in Taiwan. In this study, Yushan snowfall activity from 1979 to 2009 and the related atmosphere circulation were examined with the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau’s Yushan weather station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis atmospheric data.

The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze

[1] In this paper we examine the variations of the boreal summer season sea breeze circulation along the Florida panhandle coast from relatively high resolution (10 km) regional climate model integrations. The 23 year climatology (1979–2001) of the multidecadal dynamically downscaled simulations forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Reanalysis II at the lateral boundaries verify quite well with the observed climatology. The variations at diurnal and interannual time scales are also well simulated with respect to the observations. We show from composite analyses made from these downscaled simulations that sea breezes in northwestern Florida are associated with changes in the size of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on interannual time scales. In large AWP years when the North Atlantic Subtropical High becomes weaker and moves further eastward relative to the small AWP years, a large part of the southeast U.S. including Florida comes under the influence of relatively strong anomalous low-level northerly flow and large-scale subsidence consistent with the theory of the Sverdrup balance. This tends to suppress the diurnal convection over the Florida panhandle coast in large AWP years. This study is also an illustration of the benefit of dynamic downscaling in understanding the low-frequency variations of the sea breeze.

Sensitivity of the WRF model simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon in 1993 to shortwave radiation schemes and ozone absorption

Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in 1993 to solar radiation parameterizations and ozone absorption was investigated. Three numerical experiments were conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data as time-varying surface and lateral boundary forcings, respectively: (a) a control run (“CTL”) with the Dudhia radiation scheme and the model top placed at 50 hPa, (b) the “SWG” experiment which is the same as the CTL except the Goddard radiation scheme, and (3) the “SWT” run which is the same as the SWG but the model top was raised to 5 hPa and the vertical levels increased from 31 to 35. The use of the Goddard scheme results in considerable improvement in reproducing the model’s thermal structures, such as zonal mean air temperature, its latitudinal gradient and vertically integrated temperature. This leads to better agreements in the simulation of the upper tropospheric zonal winds through the thermal wind relationship which, in turn, rectifies the lowlevel circulations through dynamical coupling between the upper and lower troposphere. The Taylor diagram analysis quantitatively indicates that the SWT and the SWG are discernable from each other with slightly improved simulations in the SWT. This suggests a nontrivial role of ozone absorption and accompanied stratospheric heating in EASM simulation.

Impacts of assimilated data on reanalysis climatology

Impacts of the observing systems and meteorological parameters on a reanalyzed climatology are investigated using an assimilation algorithm based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis system. The one-year analyzed climatology is generated in a standard analysis using all of the observations, which is named the control run. Additional climatology data sets are produced by selectively choosing observational systems or meteorological variables in the reanalysis system. It is found that the radiosonde-only observation is sufficient for reproducing the reanalysis climatology. Satellite observations have no significant contribution to the large-scale fields. The importance of meteorological variables on the analyzed climatology is temperature, wind, and moisture in that order, where the mass observation is found to have a greater impact on the analyzed climatology than wind. It is, however, noted that the moisture field demonstrates a profound influence on the surface hydroclimate such as cloud cover, radiation flux, and land surface temperature.

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of São Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of São Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December–January–February–March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature ( T), web-bulb temperature ( Tw), surface atmospheric pressure ( P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of São Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16:00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 °C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5 mm day − 1 while the NTDs had 4 mm day − 1 . Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn't a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of São Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development.

South Atlantic Ocean cyclogenesis climatology simulated by regional climate model (RegCM3)

A detailed climatology of the cyclogenesis over the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) from 1990 to 1999 and how it is simulated by the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model) is presented here. The simulation used as initial and boundary conditions the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis. The cyclones were identified with an automatic scheme that searches for cyclonic relative vorticity (ζ10) obtained from a 10-m height wind field. All the systems with ζ10 ≤ −1.5 × 10−5 s−1 and lifetime equal or larger than 24 h were considered in the climatology. Over SAO, in 10 years were detected 2,760 and 2,787 cyclogeneses in the simulation and NCEP, respectively, with an annual mean of 276.0 ± 11.2 and 278.7 ± 11.1. This result suggests that the RegCM3 has a good skill to simulate the cyclogenesis climatology. However, the larger model underestimations (−9.8%) are found for the initially stronger systems (ζ10 ≤ −2.5 × 10−5 s−1). It was noted that over the SAO the annual cycle of the cyclogenesis depends of its initial intensity. Considering the systems initiate with ζ10 ≤ −1.5 × 10−5 s−1, the annual cycle is not well defined and the higher frequency occurs in the autumn (summer) in the NCEP (RegCM3). The stronger systems (ζ10 ≤ −2.5 × 10−5 s−1) have a well-characterized high frequency of cyclogenesis during the winter in both NCEP and RegCM3. This work confirms the existence of three cyclogenetic regions in the west sector of the SAO, near the South America east coast and shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce the main features of these cyclogenetic areas.