National Cardiac Arrest Audit Research Articles

1743 Frailty is associated with poor cardiopulmonary resuscitation outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Background This study aims to investigate the relationship between frailty and in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods The study was carried out in a tertiary hospital in Scotland and included all patients over the age of 18 who had an in-hospital CPR attempt between April 2020 and March 2022. Patients were identified via the pre-existing National Cardiac Arrest Audit Database which was collected prospectively. Data collected from this included age, sex, initial arrest rhythm, return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and in-hospital mortality. The electronic and paper patient notes were retrospectively reviewed to calculate a Rockwood clinical frailty scale (CFS) and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). The data was stratified in to frail (CFS ≥5) and non-frail (CFS <5) groups. Results 65 patients were included in the study. In univariate analysis, there was a significant difference between the frail and non-frail groups in age (p=0.006), ROSC (p=0.02) and survival to discharge (p=0.004). Only 10 out of 34 (29.4%) frail patients had ROSC and of those only 3 (8.8%) survived to discharge compared to 12 out of 31 (35.3%) of non-frail patients. In a binary logistic regression, there was a significant association between frailty and both ROSC (adjusted OR 3.31 [95% CI: 1.12-9.78}) and survival to discharge (adjusted OR 6.33 [95% CI: 1.48-27.13]) and no significant association with age, CCI or sex. Conclusion The findings support the relationship between frailty and poor CPR outcomes independent of age and co-morbidity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The association between time of in hospital cardiac arrest and mortality; a retrospective analysis of two UK databases

AimsThe incidence of in hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) varies throughout the day. This study aimed to report the variation in incidence of IHCA, presenting rhythm and outcome based on the hour in which IHCA occurred. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of the National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) including patients who suffered an IHCA from 1st April 2011 to 31st December 2019. We then linked the NCAA and intensive care Case Mix Programme databases to explore the effect of time of IHCA on hospital survival in the subgroup of patients admitted to intensive care following IHCA. ResultsWe identified 115,690 eligible patients in the NCAA database. Pulseless electrical activity was the commonest presenting rhythm (54.8%). 66,885 patients died in the immediate post resuscitation period. Overall, hospital survival in the NCAA cohort was 21.3%.We identified 13,858 patients with linked ICU admissions in the Case Mix Programme database; 37.0% survived to hospital discharge. The incidence of IHCA peaked at 06.00. Rates of return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital discharge and good neurological outcome were lowest between 05.00 and 07.00. Among those admitted to ICU, no clear diurnal variation in hospital survival was seen in the unadjusted or adjusted analysis. This pattern was consistent across all presenting rhythms. ConclusionsWe observed higher rates of IHCA, and poorer outcomes at night. However, in those admitted to ICU, this variation was absent. This suggests patient factors and processes of care issues contribute to the variation in IHCA seen throughout the day.

Recommended summary plan for emergency care and treatment: ReSPECT a mixed-methods study

Background Do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation decisions have been widely criticised. The Recommended Summary Plan for Emergency Care and Treatment (ReSPECT) process was developed to facilitate shared decisions between patients and clinicians in relation to emergency treatments, including cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Objective To explore how, when and why ReSPECT plans are made and what effects the plans have on patient outcomes. Design A mixed-methods evaluation, comprising (1) a qualitative study of ReSPECT decision-making processes, (2) an interrupted time series examining process and survival outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest and (3) a retrospective observational study examining factors associated with ReSPECT recommendations and patient outcomes. Setting NHS acute hospitals and primary care and community services in England (2017–2020). Participants Hospital doctors, general practitioners, nurses, patients and families. Data sources The following sources were used: (1) observations of ReSPECT conversations at six hospitals and conversations with clinicians, patient, families and general practitioners, (2) survey and freedom of information data from hospitals participating in the National Cardiac Arrest Audit and (3) a review of inpatient medical records, ReSPECT forms and NHS Safety Thermometer data. Results By December 2019, the ReSPECT process was being used in 40 of 186 (22%) acute hospitals. In total, 792 of 3439 (23%) inpatients, usually those identified at risk of deterioration, had a ReSPECT form. Involvement of the patient and/or family was recorded on 513 of 706 (73%) ReSPECT forms reviewed. Clinicians said that lack of time prevented more conversations. Observed conversations focused on resuscitation, but also included other treatments and the patient’s values and preferences. Conversation types included open-ended conversations, with clinicians actively eliciting the patients’ wishes and preferences, a persuasive approach, swaying the conversation towards a decision aligned with medical opinion, and simply informing the patient/relative about a medical decision that had already been made. The frequency of harms reported on the NHS Safety Thermometer was similar among patients with or without a ReSPECT form. Hospital doctors and general practitioners gave different views on the purpose of the ReSPECT process and the type of recommendations they would record. Limitations The research was undertaken within the first 2 years following the implementation of ReSPECT. Local policies meant that doctors led these conversations. Most patients were seriously ill, which limited opportunities for interviews. Incomplete adoption of the ReSPECT process and problems associated with the NHS Safety Thermometer tool affected the evaluation on clinical outcomes. Conclusions Patients and families were involved in most ReSPECT conversations. Conversations focused on resuscitation, but also included other emergency treatments. Respect for patient autonomy and duty to protect from harm informed clinicians’ approach to varying degrees, depending on the clinical situation and their views of ReSPECT as a shared decision-making process. The complexity of these conversations and the clinical, emotional and organisational barriers observed suggest that a nuanced and multifaceted approach will be necessary to support good ReSPECT processes. Future work Further research is needed to understand the advantages and disadvantages to the adoption of a national emergency care and treatment plan system, the most effective national and local implementation approaches, and whether or not shared decision-making approaches in the context of emergency care and treatment plans could further enhance patient and family engagement. Study registration This study is registered as ISRCTN11112933. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 10, No. 40. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Improving risk prediction model quality in the critically ill: data linkage study

Background A previous National Institute for Health and Care Research study [Harrison DA, Ferrando-Vivas P, Shahin J, Rowan KM. Ensuring comparisons of health-care providers are fair: development and validation of risk prediction models for critically ill patients. Health Serv Deliv Res 2015;3(41)] identified the need for more research to understand risk factors and consequences of critical care and subsequent outcomes. Objectives First, to improve risk models for adult general critical care by developing models for mortality at fixed time points and time-to-event outcomes, end-stage renal disease, type 2 diabetes, health-care utilisation and costs. Second, to improve risk models for cardiothoracic critical care by enhancing risk factor data and developing models for longer-term mortality. Third, to improve risk models for in-hospital cardiac arrest by enhancing risk factor data and developing models for longer-term mortality and critical care utilisation. Design Risk modelling study linking existing data. Setting NHS adult critical care units and acute hospitals in England. Participants Patients admitted to an adult critical care unit or experiencing an in-hospital cardiac arrest. Interventions None. Main outcome measures Mortality at hospital discharge, 30 days, 90 days and 1 year following critical care unit admission; mortality at 1 year following discharge from acute hospital; new diagnosis of end-stage renal disease or type 2 diabetes; hospital resource use and costs; return of spontaneous circulation sustained for > 20 minutes; survival to hospital discharge and 1 year; and length of stay in critical care following in-hospital cardiac arrest. Data sources Case Mix Programme, National Cardiac Arrest Audit, UK Renal Registry, National Diabetes Audit, National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics. Results Data were linked for 965,576 critical care admissions between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2016, and 83,939 in-hospital cardiac arrests between 1 April 2011 and 31 March 2016. For admissions to adult critical care units, models for 30-day mortality had similar predictors and performance to those for hospital mortality and did not reduce heterogeneity. Models for longer-term outcomes reflected increasing importance of chronic over acute predictors. New models for end-stage renal disease and diabetes will allow benchmarking of critical care units against these important outcomes and identification of patients requiring enhanced follow-up. The strongest predictors of health-care costs were prior hospitalisation, prior dependency and chronic conditions. Adding pre- and intra-operative risk factors to models for cardiothoracic critical care gave little improvement in performance. Adding comorbidities to models for in-hospital cardiac arrest provided modest improvements but were of greater importance for longer-term outcomes. Limitations Delays in obtaining linked data resulted in the data used being 5 years old at the point of publication: models will already require recalibration. Conclusions Data linkage provided enhancements to the risk models underpinning national clinical audits in the form of additional predictors and novel outcomes measures. The new models developed in this report may assist in providing objective estimates of potential outcomes to patients and their families. Future work (1) Develop and test care pathways for recovery following critical illness targeted at those with the greatest need; (2) explore other relevant data sources for longer-term outcomes; (3) widen data linkage for resource use and costs to primary care, outpatient and emergency department data. Study registration This study is registered as NCT02454257. Funding details This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 10, No. 39. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Critical illness-related cardiac arrest: Protocol for an investigation of the incidence and outcome of cardiac arrest within intensive care units in the United Kingdom.

Critical illness-related cardiac arrest (CIRCA) as a distinct entity is not well described epidemiologically. There is currently a knowledge gap regarding how many occur in the UK or the impact on patient outcome. The CIRCA study is a prospective multi-centre observational cohort study of patients in the United Kingdom experiencing a cardiac arrest while in a Critical Care Unit embedded in the Case Mix Programme and National Cardiac Arrest Audit. The duration of data collection is 12 months, with surviving patients and family members receiving questionnaire follow-up at 90 days, 180 days and 12 months. This paper describes the protocol for the CIRCA study which received favourable ethical opinion from South Central - Berkshire Research Ethics Committee and approval from the Health Research Authority. Study registration is on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04219384).

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on in-hospital cardiac arrests in the UK

AimsTo compare in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) rates and patient outcomes during the first COVID-19 wave in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2020 with the same period in previous years. MethodsA retrospective, multicentre cohort study of 154 UK hospitals that participate in the National Cardiac Arrest Audit and have intensive care units participating in the Case Mix Programme national audit of intensive care. Hospital burden of COVID-19 was defined by the number of patients with confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection admitted to critical care per 10,000 hospital admissions. Results16,474 patients with IHCA where a resuscitation team attended were included. Patients admitted to hospital during 2020 were younger, more often male, and of non-white ethnicity compared with 2016–2019. A decreasing trend in IHCA rates between 2016 and 2019 was reversed in 2020. Hospitals with higher burden of COVID-19 had the greatest difference in IHCA rates (21.8 per 10,000 admissions in April 2020 vs 14.9 per 10,000 in April 2019). The proportions of patients achieving ROSC ≥ 20 min and surviving to hospital discharge were lower in 2020 compared with 2016–19 (46.2% vs 51.2%; and 21.9% vs 22.9%, respectively). Among patients with IHCA, higher hospital burden of COVID-19 was associated with reduced survival to hospital discharge (OR = 0.95; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98; p < 0.001). ConclusionsIn comparison with 2016–2019, the first COVID-19 wave in 2020 was associated with a higher rate of IHCA and decreased survival among patients attended by resuscitation teams. These changes were greatest in hospitals with the highest COVID-19 burden.

The landscape of paediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom National Cardiac Arrest Audit

AimTo report the patient characteristics and clinical outcome of paediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom (UK) National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) database. MethodsAnalysis of all recorded paediatric cardiac arrests in the NCAA dataset over a seven-year period ending on 31 December 2018, within acute children’s hospitals (including standalone paediatric hospitals and hospitals with tertiary paediatric services) and acute general hospitals participating in NCAA. In this period 1456 patients (with 1580 events), 1 month to 16 years of age, received chest compressions and/or defibrillation and were attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to an emergency call. The main outcome measure was survival to discharge. ResultsFor this cohort of paediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest patients the overall rates of sustained return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) were 69.1% with unadjusted survival to hospital discharge of 54.2%. The presenting rhythm was shockable in 4.3% of events and non-shockable in 82.1% (remainder undetermined); rates of survival to hospital discharge associated with these rhythms were 63.9% and 51.7%. A difference in outcomes was observed between Children’s hospitals and acute general hospitals with ROSC rates of 79.1% and 55.5% respectively and survival to hospital discharge rates of 57.7% and 49.3% respectively. ConclusionsThese first results from the NCAA database describing the outcome of paediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest in UK hospitals will serve as a benchmark from which to assess the future impact of changes in service delivery, organisation and treatment for in-hospital cardiac arrest in young people. Outcomes for specialist paediatric centres should be studied further as higher rates of ROSC and survival to hospital discharge were observed.

The impact of the Tracey judgment on the rates and outcomes of in-hospital cardiac arrests in UK hospitals participating in the National Cardiac Arrest Audit

The aim was to determine if the 17 June 2014 Tracey judgment regarding 'do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation' decisions led to increases in the rate of in-hospital cardiac arrests resulting in a resuscitation attempt (IHCA) and/or proportion of resuscitation attempts deemed futile. Using UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit data, the IHCA rate and proportion of resuscitation attempts deemed futile were compared for two periods (pre-judgment (01 July 2012 - 16 June 2014, inclusive) and post-judgment (01 July 2014 - 30 June 2016, inclusive)) using interrupted time series analyses. A total of 43,109 IHCAs (115 hospitals) were analysed. There were fewer IHCAs post- than pre-judgment (21,324 vs 21,785, respectively). The IHCA rate was declining over time before the judgment but there was an abrupt and statistically significant increase in the period immediately following the judgment (p<0.001). This was not sustained post-judgment. The proportion of resuscitation attempts deemed futile was smaller post-judgment than pre-judgment (8.2% vs 14.9%, respectively). The rate of attempts deemed futile decreased post-judgment (p<0.001). The IHCA rate increased immediately after the Tracey judgment while the proportion of resuscitation attempts deemed futile decreased. The precise mechanisms for these changes are unclear.

Pre-arrest and intra-arrest prognostic factors associated with survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest: systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectiveTo determine associations between important pre-arrest and intra-arrest prognostic factors and survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesMedline, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database...

How do information sources influence the reported Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) for in-hospital cardiac arrest survivors? An observational study from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA)

AimCerebral Performance Category (CPC) can be used to categorise neurological outcome after cardiac arrest. There is no consensus on what information sources can be used to derive the CPC. This study describes the information sources used by hospitals participating in the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) and their impact on the CPC reported for individuals surviving an in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). MethodsData on the CPCs and on the information source used to assess the CPC (either case note review, communication with clinical team or direct patient assessment) were abstracted for individual adult patients who survived to discharge following an IHCA in an acute hospital participating in NCAA between 1 May 2014 and 30 April 2016. ResultsData for 33,114 IHCAs (in 31,783 patients) from 195 hospitals were reported to NCAA, of whom 6093 (18.4%) survived to hospital discharge. Of these hospital survivors, 5492 (90.1%) had both the CPC and information source reported: case note review (3989 patients, 72.6%), communication with the clinical team (1053 patients, 19.2%); and direct patient assessment (450 patients, 8.2%). Most (96.6%) survivors were reported to have had a good neurological outcome (CPC 1 or 2). There were small differences in the CPC reported derived from the different information sources but these differences were not clinically important. ConclusionIn the UK IHCA audit, the most commonly used information source for CPC assessment is case notes. Most survivors of IHCA are reported as having a CPC score of 1 or a good outcome (CPC scores 1 or 2).

Interventions to reduce mortality from in-hospital cardiac arrest: a mixed-methods study

BackgroundUnchecked patient deterioration can lead to in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) and avoidable death. The National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) has found fourfold variation in IHCA rates and survival between English hospitals. Key to reducing IHCA is both the identification of patients at risk of deterioration and prompt response. A range of targeted interventions have been introduced but implementation varies between hospitals. These differences are likely to contribute to the observed variation between and within hospitals over time.ObjectiveTo determine how interventions aimed at identification and management of deteriorating patients are associated with IHCA rates and outcomes.DesignA mixed-methods study involving a systematic literature review, semistructured interviews with 60 NHS staff, an organisational survey in 171 hospitals and interrupted time series and difference-in-difference analyses (106 hospitals).SettingEnglish hospitals participating in the NCAA audit.ParticipantsNHS staff (approximately 300) and patients (13 million).InterventionsEducation, track-and-trigger systems (TTSs), standardised handover tools and outreach teams.Main outcome measuresIHCA rates, survival and hospital-wide mortality.Data sourcesNCAA, Hospital Episode Statistics, Office for National Statistics Mortality Statistics.MethodsA literature review and qualitative interviews were used to design an organisational survey that determined how interventions have been implemented in practice and across time. Associations between variations in services and IHCA rates and survival were determined using cross-sectional, interrupted time series and difference-in-difference analyses over the index study period (2009/10 to 2014/15).ResultsAcross NCAA hospitals, IHCAs fell by 6.4% per year and survival increased by 5% per year, with hospital mortality decreasing by a similar amount. A national, standard TTS [the National Early Warning Score (NEWS)], introduced in 2012, was adopted by 70% of hospitals by 2015. By 2015, one-third of hospitals had converted from paper-based TTSs to electronic TTSs, and there had been an increase in the number of hospitals with an outreach team and an increase in the number with a team available at all times. The extent of variation in the uses of educational courses and structured handover tools was limited, with 90% of hospitals reporting use of standardised communication tools, such as situation, background, assessment and recommendation, in 2015. Introduction of the NEWS was associated with an additional 8.4% decrease in IHCA rates and, separately, a conversion from paper to electronic TTS use was associated with an additional 7.6% decrease. However, there was no associated change in IHCA survival or hospital mortality. Outreach teams were not associated with a change in IHCA rates, survival or hospital mortality. A sensitivity analysis restricted to ward-based IHCAs did not alter the findings but did identify an association between increased outreach team intensity in 2015 and IHCA survival.LimitationsThe organisational survey was not able to explore all aspects of the interventions and the contextual factors that influenced them. Changes over time were dependent on respondents’ recall.ConclusionsStandardisation of TTSs and introduction of electronic TTSs are associated with a reduction in IHCAs. The apparent lack of impact of outreach teams may reflect their mode of introduction, that their effect is through providing support for implementation of TTS or that the organisation of the response to deterioration is not critical, as long as it is timely. Their role in end-of-life decision-making may account for the observed association with IHCA survival.Future workTo assess the potential impact of outreach teams at hospital level and patient level, and to establish which component of the TTS has the greatest effect on outcomes.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Low Rates of Survival Seen in Orthopedic Patients Receiving In-Hospital Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

Introduction:Despite awareness of overall poor survival rates following cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), some orthopedic patients with significant comorbidities continue to have inappropriate resuscitation plans. Furthermore, in certain injury groups such as patients with hip fractures, survival outcome data are very limited; current discussions regarding resuscitation plans may be inaccurate. This study assesses survival in orthopedic patients following CPR, to inform decision-making between physicians, surgeons, and patients.Methods:A dual center, retrospective cohort study was performed analyzing all orthopedic admissions that received CPR over a 25-month period, with a minimum of 1 year follow-up. National Cardiac Arrest Audit data, “mortality and morbidity” meeting records, National Hip Fracture Databases, and electronic notes were analyzed. Survival duration was measured, alongside reason for admission, location CPR occurred, and initial rhythm encountered.Results:Thirty-two patients received CPR over the 25-month period (median age: 83; range: 30-96). Three (9%) of 32 patients survived to discharge. Only 1 of the 26 patients older than 65 years survived to discharge. Fifteen (47%) of 32 had hip fractures, where 4 (27%) of 15 of this group survived 24 hours; none survived to discharge. When recorded, 22 (92%) of 24 initially had a nonshockable rhythm.Discussion:Cardiopulmonary resuscitation was conceptualized as a treatment for reversible cardiopulmonary causes. When used in trauma and orthopedic patients, especially older and/or hip fracture patients, it seldom led to hospital discharge. Different admission practices such as “front door” orthogeriatric reviews may explain the contrast in usage of CPR between the hospitals.Conclusion:Survival rates following CPR were very low, with it proving specifically ineffective in hip fracture patients. Although every decision about resuscitation should be patient centered and individualized, this study will allow clinicians to be more realistic about outcomes from CPR, particularly in the hip fracture group.

A statistics based teaching intervention to aid foundation doctors when discussing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)

Purpose: The United Kingdom Foundation Programme (UKFPO) syllabus states a foundation doctor should be able to discuss why CPR is not appropriate [ [1] UKFPO Foundation Programme Syllabus. 2017 Google Scholar ]). Discussions and questions pertaining to CPR success rate and complications are an often challenging yet a vital part of medical practice [ [2] Etheridge Z. Gatland E. When and how to discuss “do not resuscitate” decisions with patients. BMJ (Clin Res ed). 2015; 350: h2640 Crossref PubMed Scopus (26) Google Scholar ]. We implemented a teaching intervention that aimed to equip Foundation doctors’ with key National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) statistical data [ [3] National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) 2015/2016, Resuscitation council UK. Google Scholar ] to help them field such questions.

The implementation of cardiac arrest treatment recommendations in English acute NHS trusts: a national survey

Purpose of the studyThere are approximately 35 000 in-hospital cardiac arrests in the UK each year. Successful resuscitation requires integration of the medical science, training and education of clinicians and...

An overview of adult cardiopulmonary resuscitation equipment.

Nurses have many roles and responsibilities in relation to cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), including: recognising that a patient is deteriorating; recognising cardiac arrest and commencing CPR while waiting for the resuscitation team to arrive; ensuring the contents of the resuscitation trolley are present, in date and in full working order; and completing documentation for the National Cardiac Arrest Audit in participating healthcare organisations. Many patient safety incidents involving resuscitation trolley equipment and resuscitation have been reported, and predominantly relate to a lack of equipment, missing equipment and inadequately stocked trolleys. This article provides an overview of the contents of the standard resuscitation trolley and a rationale for the use of each item. It discusses the importance of checking and restocking the resuscitation trolley, as well as the documentation of CPR efforts.

Risk-adjusted survival for adults following in-hospital cardiac arrest by day of week and time of day: observational cohort study

BackgroundInternationally, hospital survival is lower for patients admitted at weekends and at night. Data from the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) indicate that crude hospital survival was worse after...

Ensuring comparisons of health-care providers are fair: development and validation of risk prediction models for critically ill patients

BackgroundNational clinical audit has a key role in ensuring quality in health care. When comparing outcomes between providers, it is essential to take the differing case mix of patients into account to make fair comparisons. Accurate risk prediction models are therefore required.ObjectivesTo improve risk prediction models to underpin quality improvement programmes for the critically ill (i.e. patients receiving general or specialist adult critical care or experiencing an in-hospital cardiac arrest).DesignRisk modelling study nested within prospective data collection.SettingAdult (general/specialist) critical care units and acute hospitals in the UK.ParticipantsPatients admitted to an adult critical care unit and patients experiencing an in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by the hospital-based resuscitation team.InterventionsNone.Main outcome measuresAcute hospital mortality (adult critical care); return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) greater than 20 minutes and survival to hospital discharge (in-hospital cardiac arrest).Data sourcesThe Case Mix Programme (adult critical care) and National Cardiac Arrest Audit (in-hospital cardiac arrest).ResultsThe current Intensive Care National Audit &amp; Research Centre (ICNARC) model was externally validated using data for 29,626 admissions to critical care units in Scotland (2007–9) and outperformed the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model in terms of discrimination (c-index 0.848 vs. 0.806) and accuracy (Brier score 0.140 vs. 0.157). A risk prediction model for cardiothoracic critical care was developed using data from 17,002 admissions to five units (2010–12) and validated using data from 10,238 admissions to six units (2013–14). The model included prior location/urgency, blood lactate concentration, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, age, pH, platelet count, dependency, mean arterial pressure, white blood cell (WBC) count, creatinine level, admission following cardiac surgery and interaction terms, and it had excellent discrimination (c-index 0.904) and accuracy (Brier score 0.055). A risk prediction model for admissions to all (general/specialist) adult critical care units was developed using data from 155,239 admissions to 232 units (2012) and validated using data from 90,017 admissions to 216 units (2013). The model included systolic blood pressure, temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood/fraction of inspired oxygen, pH, partial pressure of carbon dioxide in arterial blood, blood lactate concentration, urine output, creatinine level, urea level, sodium level, WBC count, platelet count, GCS score, age, dependency, past medical history, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, prior location/urgency, reason for admission and interaction terms, and it outperformed the current ICNARC model for discrimination and accuracy overall (c-index 0.885 vs. 0.869; Brier score 0.108 vs. 0.115) and across unit types. Risk prediction models for in-hospital cardiac arrest were developed using data from 14,688 arrests in 122 hospitals (2011–12) and validated using data from 7791 arrests in 143 hospitals (2012–13). The models included age, sex (for ROSC &gt; 20 minutes), prior length of stay in hospital, reason for attendance, location of arrest, presenting rhythm, and interactions between rhythm and location. Discrimination for hospital survival exceeded that for ROSC &gt; 20 minutes (c-index 0.811 vs. 0.720).LimitationsThe risk prediction models developed were limited by the data available within the current national clinical audit data sets.ConclusionsWe have developed and validated risk prediction models for cardiothoracic and adult (general and specialist) critical care units and for in-hospital cardiac arrest.Future workFuture development should include linkage with other routinely collected data to enhance available predictors and outcomes.Funding detailsThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Development and validation of risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team

AimThe National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) is the UK national clinical audit for in-hospital cardiac arrest. To make fair comparisons among health care providers, clinical indicators require case mix adjustment using a validated risk model. The aim of this study was to develop and validate risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in UK hospitals. MethodsRisk models for two outcomes—return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for greater than 20min and survival to hospital discharge—were developed and validated using data for in-hospital cardiac arrests between April 2011 and March 2013. For each outcome, a full model was fitted and then simplified by testing for non-linearity, combining categories and stepwise reduction. Finally, interactions between predictors were considered. Models were assessed for discrimination, calibration and accuracy. Results22,479 in-hospital cardiac arrests in 143 hospitals were included (14,688 development, 7791 validation). The final risk model for ROSC>20min included: age (non-linear), sex, prior length of stay in hospital, reason for attendance, location of arrest, presenting rhythm, and interactions between presenting rhythm and location of arrest. The model for hospital survival included the same predictors, excluding sex. Both models had acceptable performance across the range of measures, although discrimination for hospital mortality exceeded that for ROSC>20min (c index 0.81 versus 0.72). ConclusionsValidated risk models for ROSC>20min and hospital survival following in-hospital cardiac arrest have been developed. These models will strengthen comparative reporting in NCAA and support local quality improvement.

Incidence and outcome of in-hospital cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom National Cardiac Arrest Audit

ObjectiveTo report the incidence, characteristics and outcome of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest in the United Kingdom (UK) National Cardiac Arrest Audit database. MethodsA prospectively defined analysis of the UK National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) database. 144 acute hospitals contributed data relating to 22,628 patients aged 16 years or over receiving chest compressions and/or defibrillation and attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in response to a 2222 call. The main outcome measures were incidence of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest and survival to hospital discharge. ResultsThe overall incidence of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest was 1.6 per 1000 hospital admissions with a median across hospitals of 1.5 (interquartile range 1.2–2.2). Incidence varied seasonally, peaking in winter. Overall unadjusted survival to hospital discharge was 18.4%. The presenting rhythm was shockable (ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia) in 16.9% and non-shockable (asystole or pulseless electrical activity) in 72.3%; rates of survival to hospital discharge associated with these rhythms were 49.0% and 10.5%, respectively, but varied substantially across hospitals. ConclusionsThese first results from the NCAA database describing the current incidence and outcome of adult in-hospital cardiac arrest in UK hospitals will serve as a benchmark from which to assess the future impact of changes in service delivery, organisation and treatment for in-hospital cardiac arrest.

Registries to measure and improve outcomes after cardiac arrest

Cardiac arrest registries are used to measure and improve the process and outcome of resuscitation care, and can give insight into risk factors, prognosis, and the effectiveness of interventions to mitigate its impact. This review provides an overview of current out-of-hospital (OHCA) and in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) registries, with attention to key recent findings and future directions. Major OHCA registries include the Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium Cardiac Arrest Epistry and Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival. Registry data from IHCA largely stem from the US and Canada with Get with the Guidelines-Resuscitation, and the UK with the National Cardiac Arrest Audit. Each registry has strengths and limitations. Important findings include trends in survival, racial disparities in care, and hospital and community-level variations in performance, as well as estimates of the effectiveness of individual interventions. Utstein definitions facilitate uniform reporting of the process and outcome of care, and are currently being updated. Standardization of registry data is an ongoing challenge. OHCA and IHCA registries are invaluable in advancing our understanding of resuscitation care, as well as variations in international practice. Investigations that compare and contrast outcomes from established and evolving registries will help advance resuscitation science further.