National Carbon Emission Trading Research Articles

Discussion On The Development Of China's Regional Carbon Market Under The Background Of Double Carbon

Accelerating China's carbon trading market is one of the important means to deal with climate change and achieve the dual carbon goal. Due to the huge differences in China's regional economic development and carbon resource endowment, the impact of the establishment of the national unified carbon trading market on regional economic development is unstable and uncertain. For local governments to make full use of this empty window period, this paper combs the recent development of the carbon market, and discusses the development prospect of China's regional carbon market under the background of carbon trading. The results show that: ①in the current development of the national carbon emission trading market, we can not achieve the carbon unification of the market and abandon the local carbon trading market; ②In the process of regional carbon trading, it can promote the low-carbon development of local economy; ③In the process of regional carbon trading, it can increase the share of clean energy and improve the efficiency of regional ecological and environmental protection. Then, some suggestions are put forward for the development of local carbon trading: ①appropriately expand the pilot scale of local carbon trading, go up and down, and realize the double cycle development of carbon market; ②Strengthen the training of professionals and create an innovative and entrepreneurial business environment; ③build a carbon platform with big data technology and improve the Regional Internet plus carbon enterprise database; ④Actively promote the development of PPP model, explore the carbon sink transaction of cooperation between the government and social capital, continuously improve the regional green and low-carbon development, and jointly promote the realization of the "double carbon goal".

The green paradox of time dimension: From pilot to national carbon emission trading system in China

The Emission Trading System (ETS) is essential for China to achieve its emission reduction goals. This paper combines Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) and Difference-in-Differences (DID) methods, which are more suitable for the Chinese scenario, to assess the comprehensive influence of the China's ETS. The performances of pilot and non-pilot regions confirm the existence of the “green paradox” issue in China's ETS construction. SDID experiments demonstrate that pilot ETSs significantly suppress emissions in pilot regions. However, most emission reduction occurs during the policy announcement period rather than implementation, indicating an emission period-spillover effect. DID estimations illustrate that the national ETS stimulates the emissions in non-pilot regions during the declaration period. The results of China's ETS policies highlighting the emergency to address the policy time lag problem. Further mechanism tests reveal that most effects are driven by changes in energy structure and carbon leakage. Additionally, we conduct heterogeneity tests from over market design and regional attributes. The results show that higher market coverage and stricter penalties in the ETS market can partially alleviate the “green paradox”. Similarly, reducing regional carbon concentration, promoting marketization, and increasing economic openness also have mitigating effects. Based on the obtained results, this paper concludes with policy recommendations.

Strategic transparency under authoritarian environmentalism: information disclosure and the role of environmental NGOs in China’s national emission trading scheme

ABSTRACT Transparency in carbon markets is considered critical to ensure market effectiveness and public accountability. Low levels of transparency and lack of participation of non-governmental actors are persistent criticisms of Chinese (pilot) emission trading systems. Building on debates around authoritarian environmentalism and China's role therein, this article analyses transparency, manifested as information disclosure, in China's national carbon emission trading scheme (C-ETS) – the largest carbon emission market worldwide. Using expert interviews and content analysis, the article outlines practices of C-ETS information disclosure and discusses its characteristics in the context of China’s environmental governance. Key findings include discrepancies both between central and provincial governments related to information disclosure, and between different provincial governments. And while most industry actors lack interest and capacity to engage in C-ETS disclosure, environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs), by contrast, are significantly more involved in the policy process and information disclosure, often as ‘eco-elites’. Overall, this reveals that international and domestic ENGOs retain high-level channels to influence policy design and implementation. Yet, ENGO input is not pursued as a public good valuable for its own sake, but sought strategically as a means to the larger goal of efficient market functioning. This type of ‘strategic transparency,’ as we call it, suggests that China’s environmental governance model – regularly considered to be a key example of authoritarian environmentalism – instead represents an evolving mixture of liberal and illiberal tactics.

Grappling with the trade-offs of carbon emission trading and green certificate: Achieving carbon neutrality in China

Although our knowledge of national carbon emission trading system and green certificate trading system are powerful incentive instruments that can deliver on increasingly ambitious climate targets in China, there remains an uncertainty of systems' structural reforms. This study builds on and extends a well-established dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate carbon trading system and green certificate trading system into the modeling framework, simulating a diverse of system development pathways further allows an exploration of the many possible policy effect. Then, using total factor productivity as a comprehensive indicator to asses policy effectiveness, the evolutionary trend of comprehensive effects under different paths are separately evaluated to discover the reforms’ optimal range. Our work offers main results: First, these instruments provide a price signal. The introduction of a carbon allowance auction drive up carbon prices, while the implementation of a green certificate punishment and the expansion of the trading scope promote an increase in green certificate prices. Second, all policy scenarios that help reduce carbon emission intensity and optimize the power supply structure. However, in achieving the net-zero goal, the green certificate policy incurs more economic costs than the carbon trading policy. Indeed, the combination of multiple policy tools alleviates the decline of social welfare levels. Third, synergism design among policy tools: the focus should be on carbon trading policy from 2021 to 2030, green certificate trading policy from 2030 to 2050, and strengthened policy from 2050 to 2060. Reform measures within policies may need to be introduced in a timely manner. This study offers specific insights and tailored policy proposals to support policymakers in balancing environmental goals with economic and social needs in light of the aforementioned findings.

Effect Analysis of China's Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policy on Carbon Emission Control

Many countries have achieved a fundamental consensus to decrease carbon dioxide emissions in order to address environmental and climate issues. China, as the foremost energy consumer and carbon emitter globally, has significantly contributed to the exacerbation of greenhouse gas issues. The most effective method for lowering carbon emissions is through the trade of carbon emissions. In 2011, China began the process of implementing pilot projects for pricing carbon emissions as a means of addressing environmental and climate-related issues. This study use the literature review approach to examine the current state of China's carbon emission trading pilot policies on carbon emission management. It also analyzes the technical and economic impacts of these pilot policies in comparison to non-pilot carbon emission trading policies. The objective of this study is to propose recommendations for the implementation of the national carbon emission trading market in 2021.

A study on the dynamic impact of carbon emission trading on green and high-quality development.

As a pivotal element in market mechanisms, carbon trading is increasingly recognized as crucial for achieving China's Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals. This study introduces a comprehensive dynamic model, integrating carbon trading, emissions, economic growth, and green technology innovation, to offer a holistic understanding of the interplay between these domains. Utilizing principles from nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory, the model is adept at simulating various scenarios and assessing the effectiveness of government policies in stabilizing these complex systems. In-depth analysis provided by this research sheds light on the nuanced impact of carbon trading policies on sustainable development. Key findings highlight (1) Carbon trading's essential role as a catalyst in propelling sustainable and high-quality growth. (2) A strong positive relationship is observed between the sophistication of the carbon trading mechanism and its effectiveness in stimulating green technology innovation and fostering high-quality green development. Notably, carbon trading's influence on green technology innovation markedly enhances the efficacy of carbon emission reduction strategies. (3) Government regulations are instrumental in augmenting carbon prices, thus incentivizing increased corporate participation in emission reduction and enhancing the overall impact of carbon emission reduction. Nevertheless, the study identifies a critical threshold in regulatory intensity, beyond which there is a risk of system destabilization ( ). These findings underscore the imperative for developing an integrated national carbon emission trading market, prioritizing sustainable growth strategies and diligently pursuing China's environmental objectives.

Will Environmental Regulations lead to China's outward Foreign Direct Investment?: A Quasi Natural Experiment Based on China's Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policy

Foreign direct investment (OFDI) is an important part of China's "going global" strategy. With the continuous expansion and rapid development of OFDI in China, domestic environmental problems are becoming increasingly severe. Therefore, China has established a pilot policy of Carbon Emission Trading System (ETS) to address environmental issues. This article takes the implementation of ETS pilot policies as a quasi natural experiment, uses the double difference method (DID model) to empirically test whether ETS pilot policies will lead to OFDI, and uses the composite control method for robustness testing to supplement and expand the conclusions of the DID model. In addition, incorporate the "Pollution Shelter Hypothesis" and "Porter Hypothesis" into the same framework to explore the impact mechanism of ETS pilot policies on OFDI. Based on the conclusions drawn, it is recommended to further improve the design of carbon trading systems in pilot areas and establish a national carbon emission trading system to enhance the quality of China's outward foreign direct investment.

Market potential and the industrial sectors inclusion sequence in China's national carbon emission trading: From the perspective of maximizing gains

The carbon emission trading scheme (CETS) has been gradually introduced in China to control carbon emissions and boost economic and social development. The existing literature has evaluated the market potential of pilot CETSs or a certain industry, yet no study has focused on the industrial sectors to be covered in the national CETS to analyze trading flexibility and the sector inclusion sequence. This study presents an analytical framework for estimating market potential (i.e., potential gains and carbon emission reduction potential) and industrial sector inclusion sequences for China's national CETS using by-production models. Three simulation scenarios (i.e., no-trading scenario, power sector trading scenario, and multiple-industry trading scenario) and two trading modes (i.e., contemporary and intertemporal trading mode) are simultaneously considered. The novel evidences are: (i) There would be 39.93% (27.7 trillion CNY), 65.26% (273.0 trillion CNY) and 159.42% (666.7 trillion CNY) national aggregated potential gains of CETS in intertemporal power sector trading scenario, contemporary multiple-industry trading scenario and intertemporal multiple-industry trading scenario, and they would help save 3.60%, 5.18% and 6.05% of CO2 emissions reduction, respectively. (ii) CO2 emission permits would transfer from nonmetal minerals, ferrous metals, and electricity, to paper making, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and chemicals under the intertemporal multiple-industry trading simulation. (iii) Based on the principle of potential gain maximization, it is recommended that the sector of smelting and processing of non-ferrous metals should to be included as the next sector in national CETS. The results show that national CETS has great market potential for achieving China's joint carbon control and economic growth goals.

A hybrid forecasting approach for China's national carbon emission allowance prices with balanced accuracy and interpretability

A significant milestone in China's carbon market was reached with the official launch and operation of the National Carbon Emission Trading Market. The accurate prediction of the carbon price in this market is crucial for the government to formulate scientific policies regarding the carbon market and for companies to participate effectively. Nevertheless, it remains challenging to accurately predict price fluctuations in the carbon market because of the volatility and instability caused by several complex factors. This paper proposes a new carbon price forecasting framework that considers the potential factors influencing national carbon prices, including data decomposition and reconstruction techniques, feature selection techniques, machine learning forecasting techniques for intelligent optimisation, and research on model interpretability. This comprehensive framework aims to improve the accuracy and understandability of carbon price projections to respond better to the complexity and uncertainty of carbon markets. The results indicate that (1) the hybrid forecasting framework is highly accurate in forecasting national carbon market prices and far superior to other comparative models; (2) the factors driving national carbon prices vary according to the time scale. High-frequency series are sensitive to short-term economic and energy market indicators. Medium- and low-frequency series are more susceptible to financial markets and long-term economic conditions than high-frequency series. This study provides insights into the factors affecting China's national carbon market price and serves as a reference for companies and governments to develop carbon price forecasting tools.

Allowance-based Carbon Options Pricing Strategy and Asset Management Research Progress

Under the issue of global warming and environmental protection, low-carbon development has become an unshakable responsibility for governments worldwide. In China, the national carbon emission trading market established in 2021, which promotes the economic development of carbon derivatives. In order to facilitate the trading system, carbon options pricing theory has become a centerpiece of academic attention. This paper reviews the study progress in detail in the area of allowance-based carbon options pricing strategy carbon internationally, and makes an analysis of the application and management in international carbon markets. The mainstream pricing models include the Black-Scholes and the Monte Carlo option pricing models. On this basis, the carbon option prices estimated using the GARCH model and fractal Brownian motion have a higher degree of fitted value. In addition, this paper analyzes the application and management of carbon options in the carbon market. The carbon option helps reduce the carbon trading risk and the spendings on emission reduction for enterprises. This research intends to give a reference for the subsequent theoretical exploration of carbon options and promote the growth of the derivatives market.

The effect of carbon emission trading on enterprises’ sustainable development performance: A quasi-natural experiment based on carbon emission trading pilot in China

The establishment of carbon emission trading (CET) market is an important tool to achieve the “double carbon goal” in China. As an environmental regulatory tool based on market incentives, it remains to be tested whether participating enterprises can achieve sustainable development. This study selects the data of listed enterprises from 2010 to 2020, using the carbon trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, and employing the time-varying difference in difference (DID) and the improved propensity score matching (PSM)-time varying DID to jointly identify the impact and mechanism of CET pilot policy on the sustainable development performance of enterprises. The results showed that, first, participation in CET market is conducive to improving the sustainable development performance of enterprises, and the empirical results pass the robustness tests. Second, “investors' attention” and “government regulations” play a mediating and moderating role, respectively. Third, the effect of CET on economic, environmental and social aspects of enterprises’ sustainable development performance showed significant heterogeneous results with the difference of the pilot region, the nature of equity, and the size of the enterprise. This study verifies the effectiveness of the pilot CET policy and provides policy recommendations for establishing a national CET market.

Innovation spillover effect of the pilot carbon emission trading policy in China

In today's society, environmental protection and sustainable development have become the focus of global attention. Carbon emission trading, as an effective means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, has been adopted by many countries and regions. In China, the launch of pilot policies for carbon emissions trading is of great significance in promoting economic transformation, promoting industrial upgrading and protecting the environment. Therefore, it is of great value to study the innovation effect of the pilot carbon trading policy and its transmission path for evaluating the effect of the policy, optimizing the policy design and building the carbon market in the future. Based on the production network theory, this paper constructs a difference in difference model, and uses empirical analysis to evaluate the direct innovation effect and innovation network spillover effect of the pilot carbon emission trading policies. In the empirical analysis, a variety of data sources are used, including public data from the National Bureau of Statistics, annual reports of enterprises, and industry associations, to ensure the reliability and validity of the data. At the same time, SPSS, Stata and other statistical software are applied to process and analyze the data in order to better understand and interpret the research results. The results show that the pilot carbon emission trading policy has a positive effect on improving the innovation level of both regulated and non-regulated industries in the pilot areas. Specifically, this policy can promote the technological innovation and management innovation of the regulated industries, but also promote the technological progress and market development of the non-regulated industries. In addition, the policy will also have an innovation network spillover effect, that is, the innovation results of the policy will be transmitted to the surrounding regions and industries, thus promoting the innovation and development of the entire region and industry. Further, this paper also discusses the transmission path of the innovation spillover effect of pilot carbon emission trading policies. It is found that the policy has a negative impact on the innovation of the relative upstream industry, but significantly promotes the innovation of the downstream industry. This is because the upstream industry, after being impacted by policies, often takes measures to reduce costs and improve efficiency to deal with the challenges, which may have a certain negative impact on the downstream industry. However, downstream industries are more likely to benefit from the innovation spillover effects of policies because they are more closely linked to the carbon emission trading market. Finally, this paper also tests the mechanism of the pilot carbon emission trading policy. It is found that the innovation spillover caused by this production-end shock is mainly realized through the price transmission of finished products. In addition, the inclusion of industries with strong bargaining power and close links with downstream industries in the national pilot carbon emission trading policy is more conducive to the innovation spillover effect of the policy. This is because these industries have stronger market influence and bargaining power, and can better promote the construction and development of the carbon emission trading market.

The impact of carbon quota allocation and low-carbon technology innovation on carbon market effectiveness: a system dynamics analysis.

As the problems of "valuing compliance over trading" and quota over-allocation seriously affect the effectiveness of China's national carbon emission trading (CET) market, the quota auction mechanism will be introduced timely to solve these problems. Since implementing the quota auction means reduced free quotas, regulated enterprises are more motivated to pursue low-carbon technology innovation (L-CTI). On these grounds, by establishing a system dynamics model of the national CET market and designing seven scenarios for simulation analysis, this paper investigates the impact of quota auction and L-CTI on the emission reduction effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the national CET market. The results indicate that for the national CET market, introducing quota auction is conducive to decreasing the CET price and improving its liquidity and emission reduction effectiveness, which is one of the quota allocation mechanisms to improve the CET market effectiveness at present. However, the quota auction will increase the abatement cost and reduce the cost effectiveness. Therefore, to improve the institutional performance of China's CET system, it is necessary to conduct L-CTI to alleviate the increasing abatement cost caused by quota auction, and thus improve the emission reduction effectiveness and cost effectiveness of the national CET market.

The impact of carbon emission trading policy on overcapacity of companies: Evidence from China

As a market incentive-based environmental regulation, the carbon emission trading (CET) policy is an important tool for China to achieve “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” goals. However, it is not clear how the CET policy will affect companies' overcapacity. Given this, based on collecting the list of the CET pilot companies, this paper uses the difference-in-differences (DID) model to explore the impact of the CET policy on companies' overcapacity. It's found that the CET policy will significantly aggravate companies' overcapacity. The results of the mechanism analysis show that the CET policy will expand companies' fixed assets investment, reduce their turnover of fixed assets, and increase the credit support and green subsidies provided by the government to companies, thereby leading to a disorderly expansion of capacity. Besides, heterogeneity analysis shows that companies' overcapacity aggravation caused by the CET policy is more prominent in regions with low marketization levels, backward economic development levels, and weak environmental regulation intensity, state-owned companies and companies with low R&D levels. This paper not only provides new research literature for the CET policy and overcapacity, but also provides more empirical evidence at the micro level for the continuous improvement of the national CET market.

Income distribution effect of carbon pricing mechanism under China's carbon peak target: CGE-based assessments

China has implemented a national carbon emission trading scheme (Carbon ETS) to mitigate climate change and has set a goal to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030. The potential performance of the carbon tax as a supplement to the carbon ETS may contribute to achieving the carbon peaking target by reducing income inequality among the various labour forces. Nevertheless, carbon pricing places a greater burden on lower-income households than on wealthier households. In this paper, we construct a multisectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and incorporate the carbon ETS and carbon tax modules with 20 labour income distributions (ID-CGE model). The results indicate that the carbon pricing mechanism has a progressive effect on income distribution and a heterogeneous effect on the income of rural and urban workers. In rural areas, the middle- and high-income labours have witnessed a higher loss in income. In contrast, in urban areas, the low-income labours have experienced a greater decrease in income. Combining carbon tax and ETS policies to achieve carbon peaking goals by 2029 is a superior strategy.

Electricity-Carbon Joint Trading of Virtual Power Plant with Carbon Capture System

With the establishment and rapid development of the national carbon emission trading market, new energy system participates in the carbon emission trading market. Analysing the potentiality of virtual power plant trading in carbon emission trading market, this paper designs a two-stage joint trading mechanism for electricity and carbon market with a weekly cycle according to their characteristics, which contain multiple transaction types for both markets. In addition, this paper introduces a carbon capture system (CCS) in gas turbine, which reduces the actual carbon emissions and increases the carbon market income of virtual power plant. Furthermore, it improves the comprehensive and flexible operation capability by adjusting the operation level of CCS, which is conducive to the timely consumption of renewable energy. Aiming at the uncertainty of renewable energy output and electricity price, the paper adopts a multiscenario analysis method to deal with it and establishes a stochastic optimization model to maximize joint earnings. Finally, through example analysis with GAMS, the effectiveness of the scheduling model is verified with simulation results. The overall income of the virtual power plant is improved, and the low carbon power is realized.

Do Carbon Emission Trading Schemes Promote the Green Transition of Enterprises? Evidence from China

As one of the environmental governance tools used to achieve green and low-carbon development in China, the ability of carbon emission trading schemes (CETS) to promote the green transition of enterprises is key to assessing the effectiveness of their implementation. Therefore, this paper used the panel data of China A-share listed heavy-polluting enterprises from 2010 to 2019, adopted the super-SBM model and GML index to measure the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of enterprises as an indicator of green transition, and further employed a staggered difference-in-difference model (DID) based on propensity score matching (PSM) to investigate the impact and mechanism of CETS on the green transition of enterprises. The results revealed that CETS significantly improved the green development efficiency of heavy-polluting enterprises and promoted green transition. In addition, the promotion was more pronounced among enterprises with weak cost transfer abilities, low levels of financing constraints, and high-quality internal control systems as well as in areas with high environmental enforcement intensity. More importantly, the mechanism analysis showed that heavy-polluting enterprises mainly chose to increase green technological innovation, especially substantive green technological innovation, and accelerated productive capital renewal to achieve their green transition targets. This study provides empirical evidence for improving the construction of the national carbon emission trading market and promoting the green transition and low-carbon development of heavy-polluting enterprises.

China's forest carbon sinks and mitigation potential from carbon sequestration trading perspective

To achieve carbon peaking and neutrality goals, China is establishing a national unified carbon emission trading market, especially including forest carbon sequestration market. This study assesses the potential of China’s forest carbon sinks and mitigation potential. We use the Global Forest Products Model to simulate the dynamic changes in China's forest resources from 2018 to 2060, under different carbon sequestration prices scenarios. The projection results indicate that China's forest carbon sinks will be 1.26 Pg (peta-grams) in 2021–2030 and 6.78 Pg in 2021–2060, giving an offset ratio of 4.9–7.0 % and 13.2–18.2 % of China's projected carbon emission in the same period, respectively. Therefore, China's forest carbon sinks will play an important role in carbon peaking and neutrality goals. Meanwhile, forest carbon trading has the potential to increase China's forest carbon sequestration, although the impact may not be immediately apparent. The additional increase in forest carbon sinks from carbon sequestration trading scenarios will not exceed 1.6 % of China’s total carbon emissions between 2021 and 2030. At the current carbon trading price in China ($6.84/t), the increase in forest carbon sinks resulting from forest carbon trading will give an offset ratio of approximately 1 % of total carbon emissions from 2021 to 2060. When the carbon price rises, this offset ratio is 2.3 % to 3.1 % ($25/t), 4.1 % to 5.6 % ($54/t). China should therefore hasten the integration of forest carbon sinks into the national carbon emission unified market and boost the carbon trading price by policy design and market adjustment, or government directly compensate for the forest carbon sequestration function. For forest carbon sinks to play their role in reducing the carbon neutral cost of society, China should raise the amount of forest carbon sink CCERs (Chinese Certified Emission Reductions) used to offset carbon emission allowances in key emission units.

Coupling Mechanism and Synergic Development of Carbon Market and Electricity Market in the Region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei

The national carbon emission trading mechanism is an important policy tool for the Chinese government to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using the market mechanism. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market is the focus of energy conservation and consumption reduction in China. Problems have already existed in the synergic development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market and carbon trading market. In this article, the development status of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market is analyzed and the coupling mechanism between the carbon market and power market is combed out to build a synergism model of the carbon market and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market based on the system dynamics. From the research results, firstly, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market comes with a high energy consumption intensity and a high proportion of carbon emissions. The coupling of carbon market and power market forces the power industry to reduce carbon emissions through the effective transmission of carbon costs to power prices. Secondly, carbon price shows an upward trend in the context of the current policy scenario, which can give play to the role of price signal in the future. The revenue of thermal power plants, which are the carbon emission right sellers, with new technologies, has increased significantly, while the revenue of carbon emission right buyers, which are the manufacturers of undeveloped units, has increased less. Finally, the technical progress of thermal power plants, the introduction of auction mechanism, the increase in initial carbon price settings and the direct transmission of carbon costs are all factors that promote the effectiveness of carbon trading policy tools in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei power market. This study provides theoretical guidance for the synergic development of the “power-carbon” market.

Do green bonds and economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon price? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework

Green bond shocks and economic policy uncertainty are essential factors affecting macroeconomic development and green finance. In this paper, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) framework is used to analyze the monthly data of China from April 2014 to March 2022 and to investigate the dynamic impact of green bond shock and economic policy uncertainty on carbon prices. The results show that economic policy uncertainty and the impact of the green bond have significant time-varying and short-term effects on carbon price. In the short term, economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on carbon price most of the time, while green bond has a significant negative impact on carbon price most of the time. Meanwhile, economic policy uncertainty and the impact of green bond on carbon price in Hubei and Guangdong are heterogeneous. In addition, we also use Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model to test the robustness of the results. Based on the research results, some policy suggestions are put forward, including improving the stability of economic policies, implementing green bond support policies, and speeding up the improvement of the national unified carbon emission trading market.