National Burden Of Disease Study Research Articles

Trends of Gaps Between Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy at the Regional Level in Korea Using a Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modeling Approach (2008-2019).

Health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) is an indicator of the average lifespan in good health. Through this study, we aimed to identify regional disparities in the gap between HALE and life expectancy, considering the trends that have changed over time in Korea. We employed a group-based multi-trajectory modeling approach to capture trends in the gap between HALE and life expectancy at the regional level from 2008 to 2019. HALE was calculated using incidence-based "years lived with disability." This methodology was also employed in the Korean National Burden of Disease Study. Based on five different information criteria, the most fitted number of trajectory groups was seven, with at least 11 regions in each group. Among the seven groups, one had an exceptionally large gap between HALE and life expectancy compared to that of the others. This group was assigned to 17 regions, of which six were metropolitan cities. Based on the results of this study, we identified regions in which health levels have deteriorated over time, particularly within specific areas of metropolitan cities. These findings can be used to design comprehensive policy interventions for community health promotion and urban regeneration projects in the future.

Investigating the Epidemiological Trend and Estimating the Burden of COVID-19 in the Military Population of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Background: The Burden of Disease study provides a comprehensive picture of mortality and disability across countries, time periods, age groups, and genders. Objectives: This study was conducted to determine the epidemiological trend and estimate the burden of COVID-19 in the military population of Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study used the methods by the World Health Organization for the national burden of disease studies to estimate the years of life lost due to premature death and burden of disability (YLD), years of life lost from mortality (YLL), years of life lost due to disability diseases, and the total burden of death and disability in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY). The information to calculate the desired indicators for COVID-19 in the military population of Iran, including the number of deaths, the number of hospitalizations, and the costs of hospitalization and treatment of patients, was obtained from the insurance organization of the armed forces. Excel software version 2017 is used to calculate 3 indicators. Results: The total DALY for COVID-19 in the Iranian military population during the three-year study period was calculated to be 162,429 years, which is a significant figure. The disease burden showed an increasing trend in the study years and reached its peak in 2021, which aligns with the overall disease situation in the country. In general, the burden of disease was higher in men than in women. Conclusions: The impact of COVID-19 on the military and its economic burden was substantial in the studied areas. Therefore, it is crucial to undertake careful planning in addressing these issues. Using economic burden studies and examining their dimensions provides policymakers with sufficient evidence to allocate financial resources to vital sectors and adopt appropriate policies in critical situations.

Risk ranking of foodborne diseases in Denmark: Reflections on a national burden of disease study

National burden of foodborne disease (FBD) studies are useful for risk ranking and identifying priorities for food safety resource allocation. FBD are caused by microbiological and chemical hazards, which have different incidence and mortality, and lead to health-outcomes varying in severity and duration. Due to their different origins and characteristics, distinct prevention strategies can be implemented. We present the Danish initiative to estimate the burden of FBD caused by pathogens and chemicals. We describe the methodological approaches and data used, present an overview of results for the reference year 2019, and discuss lessons learned throughout more than seven years of the project. Our estimates show that the leading causes of FBD in Denmark include both pathogens and chemicals, suggesting that food safety strategies should be diversified to tackle different issues. The experiences with this national study are useful for other countries planning to implement a burden of FBD study.

Years Lived with Disability due to COVID-19 in the capital of Serbia in 2020 and 2021

Abstract Background Valid estimates of the national disease burden often lack during crises. They need to be improved to help assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the national public health system. To determine the magnitude of acute COVID-19 in Belgrade in 2020 and 2021, we estimated the total, age and sex-disaggregated Years Lived with Disability (YLD). Methods YLD and YLD/100,000 population due to acute COVID-19 were calculated for Belgrade (Serbia) in 2020 (March 6 - December 31) and 2021 (January 1 - December 31) within the EU COST Action 18218 and the BoCO-19 study. The City Institute of Public Health Belgrade provided surveillance numbers of cases of ICD-X: U07.1 and U07.2 (unknown age cases were proportionally redistributed) and population estimates. Severity weights and length of the disease were taken from the German National Burden of Disease study. Results In 2020, 33,842 acute COVID-19 cases (50.04% were men) had 73.0 YLD (men: 40.6 YLD or 5.1 YLD /100,000; women: 32.4 YLD or 3.6 YLD/100,000). In 2021, 65,020 COVID-19 cases (54.5% were women) had 130.3 YLD (men: 65.1 YLD or 8.2 YLD /100,000; women: 65.2 YLD or 7.3 YLD/100,000). Mild cases were more often among men 10-19 years and women 35-44 years. Moderate cases were more often among persons 35-44 years. Critical cases were more often among the men. More YLD were estimated for severe cases among women in 2021 than in 2020. Conclusions In Belgrade, the YLD burden of acute COVID-19 in 2021 was almost double that of 2020. Women had more often severe forms of acute COVID-19 and more YLD in 2021 than in 2020. Men often had moderate and critical cases of acute COVID-19 and higher YLD rates than women. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the importance of having disease burden metrics to help contextually assess the health system's response to crises. Belgrade-level estimates can also be used for national estimates because of the same case definitions, treatment protocols, and data collection methods. Key messages • The YLD burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 was almost double that of 2020 for population of Belgrade. • In 2020, higher YLD had men due to critical cases, in 2020, women due to severe cases in 2021 indicating greater exposure of men and greater vulnerability of women.

Global, regional, and national burden of disease study of atrial fibrillation/flutter, 1990–2019: results from a global burden of disease study, 2019

BackgroundData from the Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factor Study 2019 (GBD 2019) was used to assess the burden and change in prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation/flutter in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019.MethodsIncidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates of AF/AFL were analyzed by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and human development index (HDI) using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD2019) results，and risk factors for AF/AFL (mainly high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, alcohol use, smoking and diet high in sodium) were differentially analyzed.ResultsThere are 59.70 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 45.73–75.29 million) AF/AFL patients worldwide in 2019, with 4.72 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.64–5.96 million) new cases and 0.315 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.268–0.361 million) and 8.39 million disability-adjusted years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 6.69–10.54 million). The highest risk factor for deaths, DALYs attributable to AF/AFL in 2019 was high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, alcohol use, smoking, and diet high in sodium. It is estimated that between 2030 and 2034, the total incidence of male AF/ AFL will be 16.08 million, and the total number of deaths will be 1.01 million. For females, the total number of incidence is 16.85 million, and the total number of deaths is 1.49 million.ConclusionsAF/AFL remains a major global public health problem, although the ASR of prevalence, incidence, and DALY at the worldwide level showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019(the ASR of deaths increased slightly). However, the unfavorable trend observed in this study in countries with lower SDI suggests that current prevention and treatment strategies should be reoriented. Some countries should develop more targeted and specific strategies to prevent the increase of AF/AFL.

9.Q. Skills building seminar: Redistribution of ill-defined deaths: a methodological conundrum

Abstract Today, several countries are conducting national burden of disease (BOD) studies, calculating Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for a variety of diseases, injuries and risk factors. The DALY metric is composed of a morbidity component, the Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and a mortality component, the Years of Life Lost (YLLs). The calculation of YLLs typically starts from national cause of death data, which are coded using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD). National BOD studies however often follow (a modified version of) the cause hierarchy of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which applies coarser categories, and does not contain unknown or ill-defined causes. This implies that not all ICD codes can be mapped to one specific BOD cause, giving rise to so-called “ill-defined” or “garbage” codes. To include all deaths in a national BOD study, it is therefore necessary to redistribute the ill-defined deaths to specific BOD causes. Several methodological approaches exist for redistribution of ill-defined deaths, ranging from the use of fixed redistribution proportions to advanced redistribution algorithms based on multiple cause of death data. The choice of the methodology needs to depend on the nature of the available cause of death data, and as a consequence, methodologies are typically tailored to the specific data at hand. The absence of a single best methodology, and the methodological heterogeneity across applications, has made redistribution of ill-defined deaths into a methodological conundrum. This skills building workshop will present the redistribution methods applied in different national burden of disease studies, including a discussion of their strengths and weaknesses. By providing a step-by-step presentation of how the methods have been applied, attendees will gain unique insights in the different redistribution methods currently applied. Key messages • Redistribution of ill-defined deaths is an essential part of national burden of disease studies, but is methodologically challenging. • Attendees will receive an overview of the redistribution methods applied in different national burden of disease studies, including a discussion of their strengths and weaknesses.

Conducting national burden of disease studies and knowledge translation in eight small European states: challenges and opportunities

BackgroundSeveral countries across Europe are engaging in burden of disease (BoD) studies. This article aims to understand the experiences of eight small European states in relation to their research opportunities and challenges in conducting national BoD studies and in knowledge translation of research outputs to policy-making.MethodsCountries participating in the study were those outlined by the WHO/Europe Small Countries Initiative and members of the Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action CA18218 European Burden of Disease Network. A set of key questions targeting the research landscape were distributed to these members. WHO’s framework approach for research development capacities was applied to gain a comprehensive understanding of shortages in relation to national BoD studies in order to help strengthen health research capacities in the small states of Europe.ResultsMost small states lack the resources and expertise to conduct BoD studies, but nationally representative data are relatively accessible. Public health officials and researchers tend to have a close-knit relationship with the governing body and policy-makers. The major challenge faced by small states is in knowledge generation and transfer rather than knowledge translation. Nevertheless, some policy-makers fail to make adequate use of knowledge translation.ConclusionsSmall states, if equipped with adequate resources, may have the capacity to conduct national BoD studies. This work can serve as a model for identifying current gaps and opportunities in each of the eight small European countries, as well as a guide for translating country BoD study results into health policy.

6.Q. Skills building seminar: Integrating social inequalities in the burden of disease framework

Abstract Driven by the influential Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the burden of disease (BOD) approach has gained wide interest at national and international level to quantify the state of health and health inequalities. Central to the BOD approach is the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) metric, which quantifies the health impact of diseases, injuries and risk factors as the number of healthy life years lost compared to a counterfactual scenario of perfect health all life long. The BOD approach offers a valuable platform to quantify social inequalities in health, i.e., differences in health status by socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics. This is highly relevant, as health inequalities penalising socially disadvantaged groups are one of the most consistent, and persistent, findings in epidemiology, for almost every health outcome and socioeconomic indicator. Monitoring social inequalities in health is therefore a key priority for national health authorities. There are different ways by which social inequalities can be integrated in the BOD framework, but all come with important data challenges. Individual-level stratification is a common approach for quantifying inequalities by age and sex, but is more challenging for other sociodemographic and socioeconomic indicators. Area-level stratification allows for ecological analyses between BOD estimates and indices of social deprivation. Social inequalities can also be assessed using comparative risk assessment, by which the relative risk for adverse health outcomes in function of social position is to be quantified. This skills building workshop will present the methods that have been applied in different national burden of disease studies to include social inequalities, including a discussion of their strengths and weaknesses. By providing a step-by-step presentation of how the methods have been applied, attendees will gain unique insights in the different ways by which social inequalities can be integrated in the BOD framework. Key messages • The burden of disease framework offers a valuable platform to quantify and monitor social inequalities in health, which is a key priority for health authorities. • Attendees will receive an overview of the different ways by which social inequalities can be integrated in the burden of disease framework, including a discussion of their strengths and weaknesses.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to high body mass index in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

A high body mass index (BMI) is associated with several cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, cancers, and other selected health conditions. To quantify the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to high BMI in persons aged ≥20 years in South Africa (SA) for 2000, 2006 and 2012. The comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Meta-regressions of the BMI mean and standard deviation from nine national surveys spanning 1998 - 2017 were conducted to provide estimates by age and sex for adults aged ≥20 years. Population attributable fractions were calculated for selected health outcomes using relative risks identified by the Global Burden of Disease Study (2017), and applied to deaths and DALY estimates from the second South African National Burden of Disease Study to estimate the burden attributed to high BMI in a customised Microsoft Excel workbook. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. BMI was assumed to follow a log-normal distribution, and the theoretical minimum value of BMI below which no risk was estimated was assumed to follow a uniform distribution from 20 kg/m2 to 25 kg/m2. Between 2000 and 2012, mean BMI increased by 6% from 27.7 kg/m2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 27.6 - 27.9) to 29.4 kg/m2 (95% CI 29.3 - 29.5) for females, and by 3% from 23.9 kg/m2 (95% CI 23.7 - 24.1) to 24.6 kg/m2 (95% CI 24.5 - 24.8) for males. In 2012, high BMI caused 58 757 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 46 740 - 67 590) or 11.1% (95% UI 8.8 - 12.8) of all deaths, and 1.42 million DALYs (95% UI 1.15 - 1.61) or 6.9% (95% UI 5.6 - 7.8) of all DALYs. Over the study period, the burden in females was ~1.5 - 1.8 times higher than that in males. Type 2 diabetes mellitus became the leading cause of death attributable to high BMI in 2012 (n=12 382 deaths), followed by hypertensive heart disease (n=12 146), haemorrhagic stroke (n=9 141), ischaemic heart disease (n=7 499) and ischaemic stroke (n=4 044). The age-standardised attributable DALY rate per 100 000 population for males increased by 6.6% from 3 777 (95% UI 2 639 - 4 869) in 2000 to 4 026 (95% UI 2 831 - 5 115) in 2012, while it increased by 7.8% for females from 6 042 (95% UI 5 064 - 6 702) to 6 513 (95% UI 5 597 - 7 033). Average BMI increased between 2000 and 2012 and accounted for a growing proportion of total deaths and DALYs. There is a need to develop, implement and evaluate comprehensive interventions to achieve lasting change in the determinants and impact of overweight and obesity, particularly among women.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to a diet low in fruit and vegetables in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

Low intake of fruit and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of various non-communicable diseases, including major causes of death and disability such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus and cancers. Diets low in fruit and vegetables are prevalent in the South African (SA) population, and average intake is well below the internationally recommended threshold. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to a diet low in fruit and vegetables by sex and age group in SA for the years 2000, 2006 and 2012. We followed World Health Organization and Global Burden of Disease Study comparative risk assessment methodology. Population attributable fractions - calculated from fruit and vegetable intake estimated from national and local surveys and relative risks for health outcomes based on the current literature - were applied to the burden estimates from the second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2). Outcome measures included deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from ischaemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and five categories of cancers. Between 2000 and 2012, the average intake of fruit of the SA adult population (≥25 years) declined by 7%, from 48.5 g/d (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 46.6 - 50.5) to 45.2 g/d (95% UI 42.7 - 47.6). Vegetable intake declined by 25%, from 146.9 g/d (95% UI 142.3 - 151.8) to 110.5 g/d (95% UI 105.9 - 115.0). In 2012, these consumption patterns are estimated to have caused 26 423 deaths (95% UI 24 368 - 28 006), amounting to 5.0% (95% UI 4.6 - 5.3%) of all deaths in SA, and the loss of 514 823 (95% UI 473 508 - 544 803) healthy life years or 2.5% (95% UI 2.3 - 2.6%) of all DALYs. Cardiovascular disease comprised the largest proportion of the attributable burden, with 83% of deaths and 84% of DALYs. Age-standardised death rates were higher for males (145.1 deaths per 100 000; 95% UI 127.9 - 156.2) than for females (108.0 deaths per 100 000; 95% UI 96.2 - 118.1); in both sexes, rates were lower than those observed in 2000 (-9% and -12%, respectively). Despite the overall reduction in standardised death rates observed since 2000, the absolute burden of disease attributable to inadequate intake of fruit and vegetables in SA remains of significant concern. Effective interventions supported by legislation and policy are needed to reverse the declining trends in consumption observed in most age categories and to curb the associated burden.

Estimating the changing disease burden attributable to iron deficiency in South Africa, 2000, 2006 and 2012.

Worldwide, iron deficiency, and consequent iron-deficiency anaemia, remains the most common nutritional disorder. Iron-deficiency anaemia mostly affects young children and women of reproductive age, especially in Asia and Africa. Iron deficiency may contribute to disability directly or indirectly as a risk factor for other causes of death, and may rarely contribute to death. To estimate the changing burden of disease attributable to iron deficiency in males and females (all ages) for the years 2000, 2006 and 2012 in South Africa (SA). The comparative risk assessment methodology developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Studies was used to estimate the burden attributable to iron deficiency in SA for the years 2000, 2006 and 2012. We attributed 100% of the estimated iron-deficiency anaemia burden across all age groups by sex to iron deficiency. For maternal conditions, the attributable burden to iron deficiency was calculated using the counterfactual method and applied to all women of reproductive age. The population attributable fraction calculated for these selected health outcomes was then applied to local burden estimates from the Second SA National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2). Age-standardised rates were calculated using WHO world standard population weights and SA mid-year population estimates. There was a slight decrease in the prevalence of iron-deficiency anaemia in women of reproductive age from ~11.9% in 2000 to 10.0% in 2012, although the prevalence of anaemia fluctuated over time (25.5% - 33.2%), with a peak in 2006. There has been a gradual decline in the number of deaths from maternal conditions attributable to iron deficiency in SA between 2000 (351 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 248 - 436)) and 2012 (307 deaths (95% UI 118 - 470)), with a peak in 2006 (452 deaths (95% UI 301 - 589)). Furthermore, our analysis showed a 26% decrease between 2000 and 2012 in the age-standardised burden rates from maternal conditions (truncated to 15 - 49 years) attributable to iron deficiency. Between 2000 and 2012, the age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate from iron-deficiency anaemia attributable to iron deficiency markedly decreased by 33% in males, and increased by 3% in females of all ages. Approximately 1.1 - 1.4% of all DALYs in SA from 2000 to 2012 were attributable to iron deficiency. Iron-deficiency anaemia prevalence can be markedly reduced if iron deficiency is eliminated. Hence it is essential to encourage, reappraise and strengthen the measures that have been put in place to address iron deficiency, especially in women of reproductive age and children.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to alcohol use in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

Alcohol use was one of the leading contributors to South Africa (SA)'s disease burden in 2000, accounting for 7% of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the first South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA1). Since then, patterns of alcohol use have changed, as has the epidemiological evidence pertaining to the role of alcohol as a risk factor for infectious diseases, most notably HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). To estimate the burden of disease attributable to alcohol use by sex and age group in SA in 2000, 2006 and 2012. The analysis follows the World Health Organization (WHO)'s comparative risk assessment methodology. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated from modelled exposure estimated from a systematic assessment and synthesis of 17 nationally representative surveys and relative risks based on the global review by the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies. PAFs were applied to the burden of disease estimates from the revised second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2) to calculate the alcohol-attributable burden for deaths and DALYs for 2000, 2006 and 2012. We quantified the uncertainty by observing the posterior distribution of the estimated prevalence of drinkers and mean use among adult drinkers (≥15 years old) in a Bayesian model. We assumed no uncertainty in the outcome measures. The alcohol-attributable disease burden decreased from 2000 to 2012 after peaking in 2006, owing to shifts in the disease burden, particularly infectious disease and injuries, and changes in drinking patterns. In 2012, alcohol-attributable harm accounted for an estimated 7.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 6.6 - 7.6) of all deaths and 5.6% (95% UI 5.3 - 6.0) of all DALYs. Attributable deaths were split three ways fairly evenly across major disease categories: infectious diseases (36.4%), non-communicable diseases (32.4%) and injuries (31.2%). Top rankings for alcohol-attributable DALYs for specific causes were TB (22.6%), HIV/AIDS (16.0%), road traffic injuries (15.9%), interpersonal violence (12.8%), cardiovascular disease (11.1%), cancer and cirrhosis (both 4%). Alcohol remains an important contributor to the overall disease burden, ranking fifth in terms of deaths and DALYs. Although reducing overall alcohol use will decrease the burden of disease at a societal level, alcohol harm reduction strategies in SA should prioritise evidence-based interventions to change drinking patterns. Frequent heavy episodic (i.e. binge) drinking accounts for the unusually large share of injuries and infectious diseases in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease profile. Interventions should focus on the distal causes of heavy drinking by focusing on strategies recommended by the WHO's SAFER initiative.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to high sodium intake in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

Elevated sodium consumption is associated with increased blood pressure, a major risk factor for cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease. To quantify the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to high sodium intake in persons aged ≥25 years in South Africa (SA) for 2000, 2006 and 2012. Comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was used and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of high sodium intake, mediated through high blood pressure (BP), for cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease were estimated. This was done by taking the difference between the PAF for elevated systolic BP (SBP) based on the estimated SBP level in the population and the PAF based on the estimated SBP that would result if sodium intake levels were reduced to the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (1 g/day) according to population group and hypertension categories. A meta-regression based on data from nine national surveys conducted between 1998 and 2017 was used to estimate the prevalence of hypertension by age, sex and population group. Relative risks identified from international literature were used and the difference in PAFs was applied to local burden estimates from the second South African National Burden of Disease Study. Age-standardised rates were calculated using World Health Organization (WHO) standard population weights. The attributable burden was also estimated for 2012 using an alternative target of 2 g/day proposed in the National Strategic Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-communicable Diseases (NSP). High sodium intake as mediated through high SBP was estimated to cause 8 071 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 6 542 - 15 474) deaths in 2012, a drop from 9 574 (95% UI 8 158 - 16 526) in 2006 and 8 431 (95% UI 6 972 - 14 511) in 2000. In 2012, ischaemic heart disease caused the highest number of deaths in persons (n=1 832), followed by haemorrhagic stroke (n=1 771), ischaemic stroke (n=1 484) and then hypertensive heart disease (n=1 230). Ischaemic heart disease was the highest contributor to deaths for males (27%), whereas for females it was haemorrhagic stroke (23%). In 2012, 1.5% (95% UI 1.3 - 2.9) of total deaths and 0.7% (95% UI 0.6 - 1.2) of total DALYs were attributed to high sodium intake. If the NSP target of <2 g/day sodium intake had been achieved in 2012, ~2 943 deaths and 48 870 DALYs would have been averted. Despite a slight decreasing trend since 2006, high sodium intake mediated through raised BP accounted for a sizeable burden of disease in 2012. Realising SA's target to reduce sodium intake remains a priority, and progress requires systematic monitoring and evaluation.

Estimating the changing disease burden attributable to raised low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is the most important contributor to atherosclerosis, a causal factor for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke. Although raised LDL-C is a key contributor to cardiovascular disease (CVD), the exact attributable disease risk in South Africa (SA) is unknown. The the first SA comparative risk assessment (SACRA1) study assessed the attributable burden of raised total cholesterol, and not specifically LDL-C. To estimate the national mean serum LDL-C by age, year and sex and to quantify the burden of disease attributable to LDL-C in SA for 2000, 2006 and 2012. The comparative risk assessment (CRA) method was used. Estimates of the national mean of LDL-C, representing the 3 different years, were derived from 14 small observational studies using a meta-regression model. A theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) of 0.7 - 1.3 mmol/L was used. LDL-C estimates together with the relative risks from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 were used to calculate a potential impact fraction (PIF). This was applied to IHD and ischaemic stroke estimates sourced from the Second National Burden of Disease Study. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated. Uncertainty analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation. LDL-C declined from 2.74 mmol/L in 2000 to 2.58 mmol/L in 2012 for males, while in females it declined from 3.05 mmol/L in 2000 to 2.91 mmol/L in 2012. The PIFs for LDL-C showed a slight decline over time, owing to the slight decrease in LDL-C levels. Attributable DALYs increased between 2000 (n=286 712) and 2006 (n=315 125), but decreased thereafter in 2012 (n=270 829). Attributable age-standardised death rates declined between 2000 and 2012 in both sexes: in males from 98 per 100 000 members of the population in 2000 to 78 per 100 000 in 2012, and in females from 81 per 100 000 in 2000 to 58 per 100 000 in 2012. Mean LDL-C levels were close to 3 mmol/L, which is the recommended level at which cholesterol-lowering treatment should be initiated for people at low and moderate risk for cardiovascular outcomes. The decreasing trend in the age-standardised attributable burden due to LDL-C is encouraging, but it can be lowered further with the introduction of additional population-based CVD prevention strategies. This study highlights the fact that high LDL-C concentration in relation to the TMREL in SA is responsible for a large proportion of the emerging CVD, and should be targeted by health planners to reduce disease burden.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to low levels of physical activity in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

Physical activity is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular outcomes, certain cancers and diabetes. The previous South African Comparative Risk Assessment (SACRA1) study assessed the attributable burden of low physical activity for 2000, but updated estimates are required, as well as an assessment of trends over time. To estimate the national prevalence of physical activity by age, year and sex and to quantify the burden of disease attributable to low physical activity in South Africa (SA) for 2000, 2006 and 2012. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used. Physical activity was treated as a categorical variable with four categories, i.e. inactive, active, very active and highly active. Prevalence estimates of physical activity levels, representing the three different years, were derived from two national surveys. Physical activity estimates together with the relative risks from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study were used to calculate population attributable fractions due to inactive, active and very active levels of physical activity relative to highly active levels considered to be the theoretical minimum risk exposure (>8 000 metabolic equivalent of time (MET)-min/wk), in accordance with the GBD 2016 study. These were applied to relevant disease outcomes sourced from the Second National Burden of Disease Study to calculate attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Uncertainty analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation. The prevalence of physical inactivity (<600 METS) decreased by 16% and 8% between 2000 and 2012 for females and males, respectively. Attributable DALYs due to low physical activity increased between 2000 (n=194 284) and 2006 (n=238 475), but decreased thereafter in 2012 (n=219 851). The attributable death age-standardised rates (ASRs) declined between 2000 and 2012 from 60/100 000 population in 2000 to 54/100 000 population in 2012. Diabetes mellitus type 2 displaced ischaemic heart disease as the largest contributor to attributable deaths, increasing from 31% in 2000 to 42% in 2012. Low physical activity is responsible for a large portion of disease burden in SA. While the decreased attributable death ASR due to low physical activity is encouraging, this burden may be lowered further with an additional reduction in the overall prevalence of physical inactivity, in particular. It is concerning that the attributable burden for diabetes mellitus is growing, which suggests that existing non-communicable disease policies need better implementation, with ongoing surveillance of physical activity, and population- and community-based interventions are required in order to reach set targets.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to low levels of physical activity in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012

Background. Physical activity is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular outcomes, certain cancers and diabetes. The previous South African Comparative Risk Assessment (SACRA1) study assessed the attributable burden of low physical activity for 2000, but updated estimates are required, as well as an assessment of trends over time.Objective. To estimate the national prevalence of physical activity by age, year and sex and to quantify the burden of disease attributable to low physical activity in South Africa (SA) for 2000, 2006 and 2012.Methods. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used. Physical activity was treated as a categorical variable with four categories, i.e. inactive, active, very active and highly active. Prevalence estimates of physical activity levels, representing the three different years, were derived from two national surveys. Physical activity estimates together with the relative risks from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study were used to calculate population attributable fractions due to inactive, active and very active levels of physical activity relative to highly active levels considered to be the theoretical minimum risk exposure (&gt;8 000 metabolic equivalent of time (MET)-min/wk), in accordance with the GBD 2016 study. These were applied to relevant disease outcomes sourced from the Second National Burden of Disease Study to calculate attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Uncertainty analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation.Results. The prevalence of physical inactivity (&lt;600 METS) decreased by 16% and 8% between 2000 and 2012 for females and males, respectively. Attributable DALYs due to low physical activity increased between 2000 (n=194 284) and 2006 (n=238 475), but decreased thereafter in 2012 (n=219 851). The attributable death age-standardised rates (ASRs) declined between 2000 and 2012 from 60/100 000 population in 2000 to 54/100 000 population in 2012. Diabetes mellitus type 2 displaced ischaemic heart disease as the largest contributor to attributable deaths, increasing from 31% in 2000 to 42% in 2012.Conclusions. Low physical activity is responsible for a large portion of disease burden in SA. While the decreased attributable death ASR due to low physical activity is encouraging, this burden may be lowered further with an additional reduction in the overall prevalence of physical inactivity, in particular. It is concerning that the attributable burden for diabetes mellitus is growing, which suggests that existing non-communicable disease policies need better implementation, with ongoing surveillance of physical activity, and population- and community-based interventions are required in order to reach set targets.

Overview.

South Africa (SA) faces multiple health challenges. Quantifying the contribution of modifiable risk factors can be used to identify and prioritise areas of concern for population health and opportunities for health promotion and disease prevention interventions. To estimate the attributable burden of 18 modifiable risk factors for 2000, 2006 and 2012. Comparative risk assessment (CRA), a standardised and systematic approach, was used to estimate the attributable burden of 18 risk factors. Risk exposure estimates were sourced from local data, and meta-regressions were used to model the parameters, depending on the availability of data. Risk-outcome pairs meeting the criteria for convincing or probable evidence were assessed using relative risks against a theoretical minimum risk exposure level to calculate either a potential impact fraction or population attributable fraction (PAF). Relative risks were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study as well as published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden was calculated for each risk factor for 2000, 2006 and 2012 by applying the PAF to estimates of deaths and years of life lost from the Second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2). Uncertainty analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulation, and age-standardised rates were calculated using the World Health Organization standard population. Unsafe sex was the leading risk factor across all years, accounting for one in four DALYs (26.6%) of the estimated 20.6 million DALYs in 2012. The top five leading risk factors for males and females remained the same between 2000 and 2012. For males, the leading risks were (in order of descending rank): unsafe sex; alcohol consumption; interpersonal violence; tobacco smoking; and high systolic blood pressure; while for females the leading risks were unsafe sex; interpersonal violence; high systolic blood pressure; high body mass index; and high fasting plasma glucose. Since 2000, the attributable age-standardised death rates decreased for most risk factors. The largest decrease was for household air pollution (-41.8%). However, there was a notable increase in the age-standardised death rate for high fasting plasma glucose (44.1%), followed by ambient air pollution (7%). This study reflects the continued dominance of unsafe sex and interpersonal violence during the study period, as well as the combined effects of poverty and underdevelopment with the emergence of cardiometabolic-related risk factors and ambient air pollution as key modifiable risk factors in SA. Despite reductions in the attributable burden of many risk factors, the study reveals significant scope for health promotion and disease prevention initiatives and provides an important tool for policy makers to influence policy and programme interventions in the country.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

Worldwide, higher-than-optimal fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is among the leading modifiable risk factors associated with all- cause mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to the direct sequelae of diabetes and the increased risk for cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease. To report deaths and DALYs of health outcomes attributable to high FPG by age and sex for South Africa (SA) for 2000, 2006 and 2012. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to estimate the burden attributable to high FPG. A meta-regression analysis was performed using data from national and small-area studies to estimate the population distribution of FPG and diabetes prevalence. Attributable fractions were calculated for selected health outcomes and applied to local burden estimates from the second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2). Age-standardised rates were calculated using World Health Organization world standard population weights. We estimated a 5% increase in mean FPG from 5.31 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.18 - 5.43) mmol/L to 5.57 (95% CI 5.41 - 5.72) mmol/L and a 75% increase in diabetes prevalence from 7.3% (95% CI 6.7 - 8.3) to 12.8% (95% CI 11.9 - 14.0) between 2000 and 2012. The age-standardised attributable death rate increased from 153.7 (95% CI 126.9 - 192.7) per 100 000 population in 2000 to 203.5 (95% CI 172.2 - 240.8) per 100 000 population in 2012, i.e. a 32.4% increase. During the same period, age-standardised attributable DALY rates increased by 43.8%, from 3 000 (95% CI 2 564 - 3 602) per 100 000 population in 2000 to 4 312 (95% CI 3 798 - 4 916) per 100 000 population in 2012. In each year, females had similar attributable death rates to males but higher DALY rates. A notable exception was tuberculosis, with an age-standardised attributable death rate in males double that in females in 2000 (14.3 v. 7.0 per 100 000 population) and 2.2 times higher in 2012 (18.4 v. 8.5 per 100 000 population). Similarly, attributable DALY rates were higher in males, 1.7 times higher in 2000 (323 v. 186 per 100 000 population) and 1.6 times higher in 2012 (502 v. 321 per 100 000 population). Between 2000 and 2012, the age-standardised death rate for chronic kidney disease increased by 98.3% (from 11.7 to 23.1 per 100 000 population) and the DALY rate increased by 116.9% (from 266 to 578 per 100 000 population). High FPG is emerging as a public health crisis, with an attributable burden doubling between 2000 and 2012. The consequences are costly in terms of quality of life, ability to earn an income, and the economic and emotional burden on individuals and their families. Urgent action is needed to curb the increase and reduce the burden associated with this risk factor. National data on FPG distribution are scant, and efforts are warranted to ensure adequate monitoring of the effectiveness of the interventions.

DALY Estimation Approaches: Understanding and Using the Incidence-based Approach and the Prevalence-based Approach.

Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates may vary according to factors such as the standard life expectancy, age weighting, time preference and discount rate, calculation of disability weights, and selection of the estimation method. DALY estimation methods are divided into the following 3 approaches: the incidence-based approach, the pure prevalence-based approach, and the hybrid approach. These 3 DALY estimation approaches each reflect different perspectives on the burden of disease using unique characteristics, based on which the selection of a suitable approach may vary by the purpose of the study. The Global Burden of Disease studies, which previously estimated DALYs using the incidence-based approach, switched to using the hybrid approach in 2010, while the National Burden of Disease studies in Korea still mainly apply the incidence-based approach. In order to increase comparability with other international burden of disease studies, more DALY studies using the prevalence-based approach need to be conducted in Korea. However, with the limitations of the hybrid approach in mind, it is necessary to conduct more research using a disease classification system suitable for Korea. Furthermore, more detailed and valid data sources should be established before conducting studies using a broader variety of DALY estimation approaches. This review study will help researchers on burden of disease use an appropriate DALY estimation approach and will contribute to enhancing researchers’ ability to critically interpret burden of disease studies.

The non-fatal burden of cancer in Belgium, 2004\u20132019: a nationwide registry-based study

BackgroundThe importance of assessing and monitoring the health status of a population has grown in the last decades. Consistent and high quality data on the morbidity and mortality impact of a disease represent the key element for this assessment. Being increasingly used in global and national burden of diseases (BoD) studies, the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is an indicator that combines healthy life years lost due to living with disease (Years Lived with Disability; YLD) and due to dying prematurely (Years of Life Lost; YLL). As a step towards a comprehensive national burden of disease study, this study aims to estimate the non-fatal burden of cancer in Belgium using national data.MethodsWe estimated the Belgian cancer burden from 2004 to 2019 in terms of YLD, using national population-based cancer registry data and international disease models. We developed a microsimulation model to translate incidence- into prevalence-based estimates, and used expert elicitation to integrate the long-term impact of increased disability due to surgical treatment.ResultsThe age-standardized non-fatal burden of cancer increased from 2004 to 2019 by 6 and 3% respectively for incidence- and prevalence-based YLDs. In 2019, in Belgium, breast cancer had the highest morbidity impact among women, followed by colorectal and non-melanoma skin cancer. Among men, prostate cancer had the highest morbidity impact, followed by colorectal and non-melanoma skin cancer. Between 2004 and 2019, non-melanoma skin cancer significantly increased for both sexes in terms of age-standardized incidence-based YLD per 100,000, from 49 to 111 for men and from 15 to 44 for women. Important decreases were seen for colorectal cancer for both sexes in terms of age-standardized incidence-based YLD per 100,000, from 105 to 84 for men and from 66 to 58 for women.ConclusionsBreast and prostate cancers represent the greatest proportion of cancer morbidity, while for both sexes the morbidity burden of skin cancer has shown an important increase from 2004 onwards. Integrating the current study in the Belgian national burden of disease study will allow monitoring of the burden of cancer over time, highlighting new trends and assessing the impact of public health policies.