In 2003, well-known economist Eugene Fama was nominated for the Nobel Prize in economics for work pertaining to his efficient-market hypothesis. Since the 1960s, that hypothesis has been researched, applied, and debated mostly in the context of stock markets. But the theory has measurable applicability to how we go about our daily business in the oil and gas industry. In short, the efficient-market hypothesis states that a free and open market, such as the New York Stock Exchange, adjusts its prices almost instantaneously to all publicly available information. That suggests that one cannot predictably, consistently outperform market returns through fundamental or technical analysis of publicly available information. But what is considered "publicly available information"? Just about everything that happens outside a boardroom and much of what happens inside a boardroom. The market reacts, quickly and efficiently. It may not always be "right," but it will react and continually readjust almost instantaneously. Another part of the hypothesis states that price movements in the market follow a "random walk" pattern (i.e., price movements are random and the best predictor of tomorrow's price is today's price). Taking the hypothesis to its next logical step implies that analysts and active stock investors cannot predictably, consistently outperform market returns by selectively placing bets on particular publicly traded investments. Although this flies against the beliefs and marketing strategies of most mutual funds and Wall Street firms, an extensive number of studies over the years indicate that passive, market-driven investments outperform active, arbitrary investments. Applications to the Oil and Gas Industry Looking at the oil and gas industry, one immediately finds evidence of market efficiency with oil and gas prices. First, if the market were not efficient, firms that did nothing but trade oil and gas futures would be as ubiquitous as independent producers. Moreover, they would perform as well in down markets as in up markets. This would be an easy business to start, as there are almost no barriers to entry. However, firms that do nothing other than trade oil and gas futures are practically nonexistent. One sees few, if any, traders who do nothing other than trade futures paper or buy crude oil in a Cushing, Oklahoma, tank today and sell it in the same Cushing tank tomorrow, for a profit. One may argue that the oil market is not efficient because a few large players, such as some of OPEC's largest producers, have the ability to move prices. And that is true, as well as the fact that insiders in those organizations can take advantage of certain information. But this is true in many industries, particularly those dominated by a few large concerns that everyone else follows. However, having dominant industry players does not mean that the market of buyers and sellers does not incorporate all publicly available information almost instantaneously. The world reacts to OPEC's moves as soon as they are discovered.
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