Municipal Elections Research Articles

Contrasting strategies and messages: an in-depth comparative study of Albania’s national and municipal election advertisements

Contrasting strategies and messages: an in-depth comparative study of Albania’s national and municipal election advertisements

Mafia and Political Competition Redirecting Votes not Discouraging Candidates

ABSTRACTThe efforts of organized crime to affect the outcome of elections have been well documented. In the present paper, we exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991, an anticrime measure that mandates dissolution of the city council in the case of suspected mafia infiltration, to show that political competition in municipal elections in Italy, measured by the win margin between the two “strongest” candidates and the Herfindahl index, increases sharply in the first election following a compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of municipalities that have never been subject to council dissolution. We find that this effect of the anti‐mafia policy remains slightly significant up to the third election after dissolution, after which time it disappears. The paper suggests that mafias manipulate electoral outcomes principally by affecting voter behaviour, rather than by discouraging unfriendly candidates. We investigate several channels that might be driving these results.

An Empirical Analysis of Invalid Voting in Municipal Elections

ABSTRACTThis paper examines blank and null voting in Brazilian mayoral elections using a large dataset covering 5570 municipalities between 2000 and 2020. The study finds that more competitive elections reduce blank and null percentages, with re‐election scenarios leading to more valid votes. Blank and particularly null voting are found to be more prevalent in municipalities where a second round is possible. Economic factors and age categories also contribute to determine unconventional voting patterns. The results also highlight important differences between blank and null voting patterns and between urban and rural areas, the later suggesting that more sophisticated voters tend to be less prone to invalidate the vote.

Greece: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractThe year 2023 was marked by two national elections during the summer months, as well as regional and municipal elections in October. New Democracy dominated electorally in both. Another key political change was the resignation of the head of the Coalition of the Radical Left, Alexis Tsipras, following his party's devastating defeats in national elections. He was replaced in internal elections later that year by Stefanos Kasselakis—a political newcomer with no prior experience. The deadly Tempi train crash, wildfires across the country, hooligan violence, and the devastating floods caused by Storm Daniel in Thessaly raised issues about the effectiveness of the government and added to the general mistrust of politics and politicians. In October, Greece regained investment grade in its credit rating from Standard & Poor's Global Ratings. Inflation, at 3.5 per cent in December, continued to be top of mind for most citizens. The devastating consequences of gender‐based violence persisted this year, with a staggering 15 femicides recorded in total.

An Analysis of Contextual Factors Influencing women's Candidacy in Local Elections: Insights From Italy

ABSTRACTExtensive research showed that the gender gap in electoral participation, both active and passive, is linked to cultural and socio‐economic aspects that can combine in diverse ways across different territories, leading to regional disparities. The present study analyzes how such heterogeneity in cultural and socio‐economic conditions interacts with the level of female participation in political competition in Italy, as measured by the proportion of female candidates in municipal elections from 2009 to 2016. Focusing on the gender dimension of candidacy in local elections, the study investigates its territorial determinants, particularly the role of the social and economic context. The research is innovative in two ways. First, it utilizes a large original panel dataset covering gender aspects of electoral candidatures at the municipal level as well as many socio‐economic contextual characteristics. Second, it employs a specification of the Correlated Random Effects Within‐Between model, which allows to disentangle the effect of both time‐variant and time‐invariant information within a panel data framework. Finally, the time period examined is of interest as it encompasses the Italian electoral reform known as Law 215/2012, which introduced a gender list quota at the municipal level. The results of the study suggest that policies to reduce the gender gap must aim not only at introducing quotas for women's representation but also at acting on all those economic and social factors that limit the presence of women in electoral candidacy.

Sir William Burrell: An Artful Politician

This article discusses the political career of Sir William Burrell (1861–1958) as a Conservative party councillor for Glasgow's Exchange ward (1899–1906) and focuses on the years 1899–1901, in three overlapping arenas: the 1899 municipal elections in which Burrell began his career; Glasgow's civic and business status as the second city of the British empire; and the 1901 international exhibition. By examining Burrell as a skilful operator in all three contexts simultaneously, this article presents him for the first time not only as a powerful Glaswegian businessman who collected art, but also as an adroit politician who exploited both his business success and his curatorial expertise for the benefit of the Conservative and Liberal Unionist cause in the city. His administration and curation of the international exhibition in the new Kelvingrove galleries allowed the dominant Unionist group to present itself to millions of visitors. Burrell's art collection is thus demonstrated to be an important political source.

Pork Barrel and Identity Politics: Explaining a Minority Party’s Electoral Success in Lithuania

Abstract Our article describes the lifecycle of Lithuania’s Electoral Action of Poles–Christian Families Alliance (LLRA-KŠS) party that has been a part of country’s political landscape for near 30 years. Despite its seemingly ethnic program, the party has a poor track record for delivering on its electoral promises. Yet, it has been continuously supported by the majority of Polish-speakers in Lithuania. The background of the nationalizing state, which encourages the party elites to conflate substantive representation with the signposting of ethnic identity in party politics, offers one of the reasons for the LLRA-KŠS’s electoral success. Although the party effectively consolidated its regional electorate, it came to control service delivery to their ethnic constituency by engaging in pork barrel politics. Poor performance in recent national and municipal elections put this strategy to bond with its voters into question, casting doubt on the LLRA-KŠS’s ability to survive as an ethnic party in the long term.

Socialization, citizenship and the electoral integration of refugees: evidence from Sweden

ABSTRACT This article seeks to fill a research gap by analysing refugees’ voting behavior, using Sweden (known for high refugee immigration, relatively liberal enfranchisement rules, and comprehensive electoral data) as a case study. Relying on register data on turnout from Swedish municipal elections, the article sheds new light on how the political integration of refugees varies. We test theories of resocialization and examine the extent to which a refugee’s political integration is affected by the surrounding environment, focusing on the political culture of the areas surrounding their neighborhoods. The results show that two major factors strongly affect refugee turnout rates: the acquisition of citizenship, and the degree of diversity of nationality in the districts in which refugees live, based on different experiences of “bonding” and “bridging” with the surrounding environment.

Turkey's Right‐Wing Discourse of Resentment

AbstractRight‐wing politics has increased its potency around the world, especially in Turkey, which has experienced a two‐decade reign of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). One of the most important instruments the AKP has used to gain and maintain power is the discourse of resentment. This emotional language features an appeal to a populist sense of the nation's rising above dangers posed by the elite and the bureaucracy. This article examines Turkey's right‐wing politics, showing how and why leaders have created and deployed the resentment discourse. Analyzing the historical‐social context of this instrument of power will help us understand the rise of the right. Even though Erdoğan's party suffered a setback in the spring 2024 municipal elections, the politics of resentment is still effective and allows the party to extend its success in national contests.

GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES OF POST-ELECTION TURKEY: THE ISSUE OF REFUGEES FROM SYRIA

Due to its geostrategic position, Turkey has taken in a large number of Syrian refugees since 2011. As a result, the country currently has the largest number of refugees in the world, which has had significant repercussions for domestic and foreign policies, as well as the socio- economic situation. Turkey's 2023 election campaign focused on the Syrian refugee crisis, with Erdogan and the opposition presenting their approaches to solving the problem. The outcome of the elections had a far-reaching impact on millions of Syrian refugees, drawing enormous attention from both the Turkish public and the international community as a whole. This media- based qualitative study examines the implications of Turkey's policy on Syrian refugees, particularly in the context of the May 2023 elections. The study analyzes the current status of refugees in Turkey and the attitude of the Syrian government towards them. It examines the changing positions of Turkey's new government and provides a comprehensive understanding of the region's complex political dynamics and current challenges. Erdogan's re-election appears to have ended his willingness to negotiate with Damascus, suggesting he remains skeptical that Damascus will be able to solve its key problems, particularly its ability to stem PKK attacks from northeastern Syria if Turkey withdraws its troops. However, as the 2024 municipal elections approach, it is clear that Erdogan's Syria policy will once again be in the spotlight. The stakes will be high for all political actors, and the outcome of the election could have a major impact on the future direction of Turkish foreign policy. The study concludes that one of the key factors influencing Turkey's anti-refugee attitude is the host society's concern about the current impact of refugees on the country's economic, social, and cultural structure. The results of this study also show that, in addition to internal factors, other factors can strongly influence the future direction of Turkish policy toward Syrian refugees. In particular, the inadequate solution to the refugee problem at the global level, the unstable influence of the EU, but also other international aspects, including the interests of Russia, are emphasized.

Gênero e raça como marcadores sociais de desigualdades na representação política: um estudo sobre a participação de mulheres e mulheres negras na política institucional no Norte de Minas Gerais e Vale do Jequitinhonha-MG

This article deals with the political representation of women in the northern mesoregions of Minas Gerais - MG and Vale do Jequitinhonha - MG, comprised of 140 municipalities. The objective is to investigate the phenomenon of inequality in political representation expressed through the gender and race/color variables. This is a quantitative work using descriptive statistics. Data collection took place on the Superior Electoral Court website—Open data portal. The data is analyzed by comparing the results of each region with data from municipal elections in Brazil. One may observe the differences between the regions and how much the scenario of underrepresentation of women in the Jequitinhonha Valley is more challenging than the context of underrepresentation of women in Brazil.

A mechanism for ensuring people’s trust in the activities of municipal communities

The article discusses the most important features of the specifics of the mechanism for ensuring people’s trust in the activities of municipal communities. Among these, the author considers: municipal elections, with their peculiarities of organization, alternative forms of direct democracy and effective interaction between state authorities and local self-government. The organization of a unified system of public authority that operates effectively and efficiently, without the trust of the population in municipal authorities, is impossible. But at the same time, municipal authorities must simultaneously enjoy the trust of the competent authorities of the subject of the Russian Federation.

Understanding the effect of term limits on voter turnout: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Costa Rica based on a registered report

Imposing term limits on elected officials is expected to increase turnout due to enhanced competition by one theoretical perspective, while another predicts depressed turnout as a result of clientelist turnout buying. These puzzling contradictory predictions are examined by a quasi-experiment (using a difference-in-differences approach) based on a 2022 reform which introduced term limits for Costa Rican mayors that were applied for the first time in the 2024 municipal election. Over one half of mayors suddenly faced retroactive term limits, while the remaining ones were eligible for reelection. This analysis was pre-registered following the 2022 reform but before the 2024 election, that is, at a time when treatment assignment already occurred but the post-treatment outcomes were not known and the analysis could still not be performed. The analysis could only be completed after the February 2024 election. The results suggest that the adoption of term limits reinvigorated electoral competition but that its participatory gains were only modest, fostering turnout only in the largest cities. The analysis contributes by advancing the—still uncommon—practice of pre-registering observational research after the treatment assignment but prior to the release of the data (and even prior to the processes that produce that data).

Indigenous representation and participation: The case of the Chilean Mapuche

According to the empowerment hypothesis, minority politicians encourage minority participation. The relationship between representation and participation has been extensively analyzed for several ethnic minorities and women, but there are no studies for indigenous populations in Latin America. This paper evaluates the link between descriptive representation and electoral registration of Mapuche, a deprived indigenous minority from the South of Chile that is as large as ten percent of the total population. We implement a panel estimation that controls district effects using a national dataset of more than three million new registrations in Chile for five municipal elections. We found that Mapuche mayors are significantly associated with higher Mapuche participation during the first year of the mayoral period. Since registration in Chile occurs throughout the representatives’ term, and we use registrations long before the next election, our evidence suggests that office-holding affects participation by channels other than electoral campaigning. To shed light on the channels, we describe the symbolic and substantive mechanisms used by Mapuche mayors to empower their communities.

How Civilian Loyalties Shape Rebel-Led Victimization of Rebel Constituencies

Rebels rely on the support of their civilian constituency, but often victimize them to enforce compliance. Scholars know relatively little about how rebels strategize violence against civilians in conflicts where the rebel constituency overlaps with the government’s political support base. This gap is problematic because the rebel constituency comprises a diverse group with varying attitudinal and behavioral characteristics. Offering a novel typology of rebel constituency members — loyals, disloyals, fence-sitters, and free-riders—this study examines the impact of rebel constituency support for the government on the rebels' targeting of their civilian constituency. Leveraging an original dataset of the PKK’s coercive acts targeting civilians in Kurdish-majority provinces of Turkey between 2014 and 2019, I proxy rebel constituency support for the government with district-level data on incumbent party victory in the 2014 municipal elections and employ a regression-discontinuity approach. I find that the spatial distribution of loyal and disloyal rebel constituency members is crucial in explaining subnational variations in civilian victimization, specifically who is targeted and where. This study enhances our understanding of rebels' use of coercion to alter their constituencies' political allegiances and calls for greater attention to individual or community-level characteristics of civilians, beyond ethnic or identity-cleavages, in rebel-civilian interactions.

Party identity and social-distancing behaviours in Brazil

ABSTRACT Does political affiliation of local politicians determine citizens’ compliance to social distancing behaviours? I provide causal estimates of the effect of political identity of municipal mayors on regional differences in engaging in COVID preventive behaviours in the context of Brazil. I employ a sharp regression discontinuity design based on close mayoral elections in 2016 to examine the effects of having a mayor from one of three political parties that President Jair Bolsonaro is closely associated with, by combining Facebook mobility data that tracks regional movement relative to February 2020 levels with electoral data from the 2016 mayoral municipal elections. The methodology compares municipalities that are similar along a wide array of predetermined and observable correlates of the spread of coronavirus, and where the incumbent mayor was selected as-if randomly. I find that residents of Bolsonaro-affiliated municipalities exhibit 60% smaller relative declines in regional movement and are 13% more likely to cross regional boundaries over the months of March, April, and May in 2020. The findings hold for each of the three political parties, for each of the three months since the onset of the pandemic, and after controlling for anti-lockdown measures of 15 March 2020 in Brazil.

The digital revolution contributed to practical reality according to the stages of its emergence in contemporary history (A model)

The digital revolution has politically affected the actual political reality through the transformation of the relatively free digital public sphere, under official digital censorship systems, and also for major global digital companies. Digitalization has today become a tool for building digital pressure groups that exercise their criticism and demands outside partisan frameworks and outside constitutional and legal systems, and outside The traditional mechanisms of a representative democratic system, including party pluralism, competitions, parliamentary and party elections within each party, municipal elections, referendums, and the formation of governments based on the results of the elections, or presidential elections in presidential systems such as the United States of America, or parliamentary and semi-presidential elections in the French style. Therefore, this study seeks to highlight knowledge of several questions about the possibilities of modifying the system of representative democracy towards introducing some forms of direct democracy, and not waiting for general elections to change the policies of elected governments, according to the political phenomena of digitization and its impact on democratic political culture as part of the processes of liquidity, and transformation in terms of the emergence of some phenomena. Populism, the post-truth world, and fake news in politics.

Invalid Votes as Protest: Compulsory Voting and the Democratic Context in Ecuador

AbstractInvalid votes are pervasive in many democracies and can threaten the legitimacy of elections. While often associated with factors such as choice complexity and disengagement, especially under compulsory voting rules, intentional ballot spoiling can also signal a political protest. We examine the argument that spoiling ballots as protest should occur under compulsory voting where voters perceive limited legitimacy to the electoral process and a lack of viable options. Using municipal elections in Ecuador, a context featuring both compulsory voting and a period of democratic erosion, we examine subnational variation in both spoiled and blank ballots. While factors related to sophistication and choice complexity explain variation in both forms of invalid voting, our results also reveal patterns consistent with the expectation that spoiled ballots reflect a protest of a lack of competition in the political system. Specifically, we find that areas opposed to Rafael Correa’s dominant party had a higher rate of spoiled ballots in the 2014 mayoral elections, a period when party dominance was consolidated and competition weak. This pattern declined in 2019 when the system’s competitiveness increased. A separate analysis of the 2019 elections for the Correa-era participatory governance body suggests continued use of spoiled ballots as protest by opposition voters, but primarily in higher connectivity areas where the online coordination on use of this tactic may have had greater influence. Overall, our study sheds light on factors shaping invalid vote patterns in compulsory systems and highlights spoiled ballots’ potential as a means to signal protest under conditions where some voters would perceive a decline in the legitimacy of democratic institutions.

Punishing mayors who fail the test: How do voters respond to information about educational outcomes?

This paper explores the electoral effects of providing information on the educational outcomes of municipal schools when the mayor is running for reelection. We designed and implemented an experiment in Chile whereby we sent 128,033 letters to voters in 400 randomly selected polling stations prior to the 2016 municipal elections. The letters included information on past test scores for local public schools (levels and changes), and either average or maximum outcomes for comparable municipalities. Our findings do not reveal a relevant average impact of the letters, but when they contain poor educational outcomes, voter turnout decreases, translating almost one to one in decreases in votes for the incumbent mayor. Voters respond to educational results in levels and to letters that have average results as a benchmark. The results are especially strong when poor educational outcomes come as bad news to voters. We also find spillover effects in the municipal council election. Overall, our findings suggest that voters hold politicians accountable when faced to certain (but not all) types of information on their performance. JEL Codes: D72, H75, I25.

Двойное и множественное гражданство в Российской Федерации: перспективы развития правового регулирования

Introduction. After the legislative distinction between the concepts of “dual citizenship” and “multiple citizenship”, predicting the prospects for the development of legal regulation of social relations emerging in the field of dual and multiple citizenship, as well as development of practical proposals to consolidate the legal status of persons with multiple citizenship in the Russian Federation, becomes relevant. Theoretical analysis. The author examined the legislation of the Russian Federation regulating the legal status of persons with dual and multiple citizenship, in particular, analyzed the current legislative restrictions and prohibitions established for this category of persons. Empirical analysis. The author studied the problem of exercising electoral rights by citizens of the Russian Federation with multiple citizenship, including the problem of renouncing the citizenship of a foreign state, and analyzed judicial practice on challenging decisions of election commissions of municipalities on the annulment of registration/refusal to register candidates for deputies. Results. The author proposes the concept of the Federal Law “On the legal status of persons with multiple citizenship in the Russian Federation”: legislative consolidation of the concept of “person with multiple citizenship”, formulation of the goals of establishing prohibitions for persons with multiple citizenship, establishment of additional prohibitions for persons with multiple citizenship in the sphere of the use of electoral rights, in particular, the ban on passive suffrage (the right to be elected) in municipal elections, the ban on active suffrage (the right to vote) for persons with multiple citizenship permanently residing outside the Russian Federation.