With the development of precision dairy farming, data on individual daily milk production are easily available in many herds. The aim of the present research was to develop an algorithm able to early detect dairy cows with a potential persistent lactation using daily production data. In this study, 2295 lactations belonging to primiparous (1015) and multiparous (1280) Holstein cows from two different farms equipped with the Afimilk system were used. Based on daily milk yield at 305 days in milk (DIM), animals were grouped into three production classes: low (LC) with milk yield <20 kg, middle (MC) with milk yield between 20 kg and 32 kg, and high (HC) with milk yield >32 kg, respectively. Lactations of MC or HC were considered as suitable for becoming long lactations. Four different models (Wood, Ali & Schaeffer, Legendre polynomials and 4th degree polynomials) were fitted to individual lactations by using the first 90, 120 and 150 DIM. Estimated model parameters were considered as variables in two multivariate discriminant techniques. The canonical discriminant analysis was used to test for possible differences between the extreme classes LC and HC. The discriminant analysis was performed to assign animals to the two production classes. The canonical discriminant analysis significantly separated LC from HC both for primiparous and multiparous cows. Among the different lactation models, the 4th degree polynomial was the most precise when the discriminant analysis was used to assign animals to the two production classes. In particular, by using the data of the first 150 DIM, the percentage of LC lactations incorrectly assigned to HC was 5% for primiparous and 7% for multiparous. Errors slightly increased when data of 120 (6% and 8% for primiparous and multiparous) and 90 (7% and 12% for primiparous and multiparous) DIM were used.The entire procedure could be automated by implementing, for example, the Afifarm’s report with a statistical computer software and it could be applied at farm level or using data from different associated farms. In practice, a historical database with previous complete lactations should be firstly created. As a new lactation proceeds, the recorded milk production data are fitted by using the 4th degree polynomial model and the estimated parameters submitted to the discriminant analysis. The lactation will be assigned to LC or HC.
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