Multiple Decrement Life Table Research Articles

How Parental Incarceration Shapes the Timing and Structure of Fertility for Children of Incarcerated Parents.

The timing and structure of fertility have important implications for individuals and society. Families play a critical role in fertility; however, little is known about how parental incarceration shapes fertility despite it being a common experience in the life course of disadvantaged children. This study examines the consequences of parental incarceration for children's fertility using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. I employ multiple-decrement life tables and survival analyses to estimate the relationship between parental incarceration and fertility. Individuals who experience parental incarceration have different timing of fertility, with earlier first births and a quicker pace of subsequent births, as well as more nonmarital fertility, compared with those who do not experience parental incarceration. This analysis finds consistent evidence that parental incarceration is associated with the timing and structure of fertility and suggests that a parent's incarceration carries consequences over the life course of children. This study advances our understanding of how mass incarceration shapes American families, illustrates how the broader consequences of mass incarceration contribute to social inequality, and provides evidence that the enduring implications of incarceration span multiple generations.

Gains in life expectancy from decreasing cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality – an analysis of 28 European countries 1995–2019

BackgroundLife expectancy (LE) is an indicator of societal progress among rapidly aging populations. In recent decades, the displacement of deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer have been key drivers in further extending LE on the continent, though improvements vary markedly by country, sex, and over time. This study provides a comparative overview of the age-specific contributions of CVD and cancer to increasing LE in the 27 European Union member states, plus the U.K.MethodsCause-by-age decompositions of national changes in LE were conducted for the years 1995–1999 and 2015–2019 based on the standard approach of multiple decrement life tables to quantify the relative impact over time. The contributions of CVD and cancer mortality changes to differences in LE were computed by sex and age for each of the 28 countries. We examine the difference between the member states before 2004 (“founding countries”) and those which accessed the EU after 2004 (“A10 countries”).ResultsAmong men, declines in CVD mortality in the founding countries of the EU were larger contributors to increasing LE over the last decades than malignant neoplasms: 2.26 years were gained by CVD declines versus 1.07 years for cancer, with 2.23 and 0.84 years gained in A10 countries, respectively. Among women in founding countries, 1.81 and 0.54 additional life years were attributable to CVD and cancer mortality declines, respectively, while in A10 countries, the corresponding values were 2.33 and 0.37 years. Lung and stomach cancer in men, and breast cancer in women were key drivers of gains in LE due to cancer overall, though rising mortality rates from lung cancer diminished the potential impact of increasing female LE in both EU founding (e.g., France, Spain, and Sweden) and A10 countries (e.g., Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia), notably among cohorts aged 55–70 years. Over the 25 years, the LE gap between the two sets of countries narrowed from 6.22 to 5.59 years in men, and from 4.03 to 3.12 years for women, with diminishing female mortality from CVD as a determinative contributor.ConclusionThis study underscores the continued existence of an East-West divide in life expectancy across the EU27 + 1, evident on benchmarking the founding vs. A10 countries. In EU founding countries, continuous economic growth alongside improved health care, health promotion and protection policies have contributed to steady declines in mortality from chronic diseases, leading to increases in life expectancy. In contrast, less favourable mortality trends in the EU A10 countries indicate greater economic and health care challenges, and a failure to implement effective health policies.

Trade-Offs between Temperature and Fitness in Euschistus heros (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae): Implications for Mass Rearing and Field Management

The brown stink bug, Euschistus heros (Fabricius, 1798) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is one of the most abundant soybean stink bug pests in Brazil. Temperature is a key factor that affects its development and reproduction, and fluctuating temperatures may impact the development and reproduction of E. heros differently from those under constant temperatures. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of constant and fluctuating temperature on the biological characteristics of E. heros in three successive generations. Treatments consisted of six constant temperatures (19 °C, 22 °C, 25 °C, 28 °C, 31 °C and 34 °C) and four fluctuating temperatures (25:21 °C, 28:24 °C, 31:27 °C, and 34:30 °C) evaluated for three successive generations. Second-stage nymphs were evaluated daily, and after they reached the adult stage, they were separated by sex, and the individual weight (mg) and pronotum size (mm) were recorded. After pair formation, eggs were collected to evaluate the pre-oviposition period, total number of eggs, and egg viability. The duration of the nymphal stage was reduced with an increase in both constant and fluctuating temperatures; however, at constant temperatures of 19 °C, 31 °C and 34 °C and fluctuating temperatures of 28:24 °C, there was no reproduction in adults. The base temperature and total degree day requirement for nymphal development were 15.5 °C and 197.4 dd, respectively. Pre-oviposition period (d), number of eggs per female, and viability of eggs (%) were affected by temperature across the generations. The multiple decrement life table analysis revealed that mortality was highest during the molting of the second-stage nymphs. These findings have important implications for E. heros' laboratory mass-rearing programs and for its management in fields.

The estimated lifetime risk of revision after primary knee arthroplasty is influenced by age, sex, and indication.

The aim of this study was to assess factors associated with the estimated lifetime risk of revision surgery after primary knee arthroplasty (KA). All patients from the Scottish Arthroplasty Project dataset undergoing primary KA during the period 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2019 were included. The cumulative incidence function for revision and death was calculated up to 20 years. Adjusted analyses used cause-specific Cox regression modelling to determine the influence of patient factors. The lifetime risk was calculated as a percentage for patients aged between 45 and 99 years using multiple-decrement life table methodology. The estimated lifetime risk of revision ranged between 32.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 22.6 to 47.3) for patients aged 45 to 49 years and 0.6% (95% CI 0.1 to 4.5) for patients aged over 90 years. At 20 years, the overall cumulative incidence of revision (6.8% (95% CI 6.6 to 7.0)) was significantly less than that of death (66.3% (95% CI 65.4 to 67.1)). Adjusted analyses demonstrated converse effect of increasing age on risk of revision (hazard ratio (HR) 0.5 (95% CI 0.5 to 0.6)) and death (HR 3.6 (95% CI 3.4 to 3.7)). Male sex was associated with increased risks of revision (HR 1.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.2); p < 0.001) and death (HR 1.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.4); p < 0.001). Compared to patients undergoing primary KA for osteoarthritis, patients with inflammatory arthropathy had a higher risk of death (HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.7 to 1.8); p < 0.001), but were less likely to be revised (HR 0.9 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.0); p < 0.001). Patients with a greater number of comorbidities (HR 1.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.4)) and greater levels of socioeconomic deprivation (HR 1.4 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.5)) were at increased risk of death, but neither increased the risk of revision. The estimated lifetime risk of revision KA varied depending on patient sex, age, and underlying diagnosis. Patients aged between 45 and 49 years had a one in three risk of undergoing revision surgery within their lifetime, which decreased with age to one in 159 in those aged 90 years or more.Cite this article: Bone Joint J2022;104-B(12):1313-1322.

Causes of excess mortality in the Republic of Moldova as compared to the European model

Background: Disregarding the recent rise in life expectancy in Moldova, the gap with Western countries is very high. The aim of the study is to identify the causes of death and the age groups responsible for excess mortality in Moldova in relation to the European average model in 2001-2019. Mortality beyond the European model set as a threshold was considered excessive. Material and methods: Data were retrieved from the Human Cause-of-Death Database and the WHO mortality database. Multiple decrement life tables by cause were computed for Moldova and the model (Germany, England and Wales, Czech Republic, Poland). Results: 27% of all deaths in males and 13% of all deaths in females under the age of 70 are excessive compared with the model. 80% of excess deaths were attributable to cardiovascular and digestive diseases (both males and females) and external causes (males). Excess deaths were mainly concentrated between the ages of 40 and 70 in men and 50 and 80 in women. Over the study period, cardiovascular diseases contributed the most to the decline in excess mortality in females, but not males. For the latter, excess mortality increased because of the cardiovascular component, completely compensating for moderate progress in external causes of death. Conclusions: Narrowing the life expectancy gap between Moldova and Western countries should be possible through better control of the key risk factors behind the identified causes of death.

Do patterns of insect mortality in temperate and tropical zones have broader implications for insect ecology and pest management?

BackgroundUnderstanding how biotic and abiotic factors affect insect mortality is crucial for both fundamental knowledge of population ecology and for successful pest management. However, because these factors are difficult to quantify and interpret, patterns and dynamics of insect mortality remain unclear, especially comparative mortality across climate zones. Life table analysis provides robust information for quantifying population mortality and population parameters.MethodsIn this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities and irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause or combination of causes) using a Multiple Decrement Life Table (MDLT) analysis of 268 insect life tables from 107 peer-reviewed journal articles. In particular, we analyzed insect mortality between temperate and tropical climate zones.ResultsSurprisingly, our results suggest that non-natural enemy factors (abiotic) were the major source of insect mortality in both temperate and tropical zones. In addition, we observed that irreplaceable mortality from predators in tropical zones was 3.7-fold greater than in temperate zones. In contrast, irreplaceable mortality from parasitoids and pathogens was low and not different between temperate and tropical zones. Surprisingly, we did not observe differences in natural enemy and non-natural enemy factors based on whether the insect species was native or non-native. We suggest that characterizing predation should be a high priority in tropical conditions. Furthermore, because mortality from parasitoids was low in both tropical and temperate zones, this mortality needs to be better understood, especially as it relates to biological control and integrated pest management.

Time Trends and Income Inequalities in Cancer Incidence and Cancer-Free Life Expectancy - a Cancer Site-Specific Analysis of German Health Insurance Data.

Cancer represents a major burden of morbidity and mortality globally. So far, however, little is known on time trends and inequalities in the lengths of life spent free of any cancer. This study steps into this gap by analyzing time trends and income inequalities in cancer-free life expectancy (CFLE). For this retrospective cohort study, data of a large German health insurer were used (N = 3,405,673individuals, 2006–2018). Income inequalities were assessed using individual income (<60% of German average income (GAI) and ≥60% of GAI). Trends in incidence risks were analysed employing proportional-hazard regression models by splitting the observation time into three periods of 52 months. Trends in CFLE in total and for the most common site-specific cancers were calculated based on multiple decrement life tables. Incidence rates declined in almost all cancers and CFLE increased substantially over time (49.1 (95% CI 48.8-49.4) to 51.9 (95% CI 51.6-52.2) years for men, 53.1 (95% CI 52.7-53.5) to 55.4 (95% CI 55.1-55.8) years for women at age 20 for total cancer) and income groups. Considerable income inequalities in cancer risks were evident in both sexes, but were more pronounced in men (total cancer HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.85-0.87)), with higher-income individuals having lower risks. The highest income inequalities were found in colon (HR 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93)), stomach (HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.84)), and lung cancer (HR 0.58 (95% CI 0.56-0.60)) in men. A reverse gradient was found for skin (HR 1.39 (95% CI 1.30-1.47) men; HR 1.27 (95% CI 1.20-1.35) women) and prostate cancer (HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.11-1.15)). The proportion of CFLE in total life expectancy declined for lung, skin and cervical cancer in women, indicating a relative shortening of lifetime spent cancer-free. In contrast, increasing proportions were found in breast and prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first study analysing trends and income inequalities in CFLE. The life span free of cancer increased clearly over time. However, not all cancer types contributed equally to this positive development. Income inequalities persisted or tended to widen, which underlines the need for increased public health efforts in socioeconomically vulnerable groups.

Spatial heterogeneity in discontinuation of modern spacing method in districts of India

BackgroundDespite six decades of official family planning programme, the use of modern contraceptive method remained low in India. The discontinuation of modern spacing method (DMSM) has also increased from 42.3% in 2005−06 to 43.6% during 2015–16. Discontinuation rate is higher for Injectable (51%), followed by condom (47%), pill (42%) and lowest in IUD (26%).MethodsData from NFHS-4 (2015–16) comprising of 601,509 households, 699,686 women and a sample of 119,548 episode of modern spacing method was used for the analysis. Multiple decrement life table has used to estimate 12-month discontinuation rate of modern spacing methods (DMSM). Moran’s I statistics, Bivariate LISA cluster map has used to understand the spatial correlates and clustering the DMSM. OLS model and impact analysis has used to assess the significant associated covariates with discontinuation.ResultThe 12-month DMSM in India is 43.5%; largely due to desire for becoming pregnant and method failure. The high discontinuation rate was observed in most of the southern (62%) and central (46%) regions of India. DMSM has significantly and spatially associated with neighbouring districts of India (Moran’s I = 0.47, p-value = 0.00). The prevalence of modern spacing method is negatively associated with discontinuation in the neighbouring districts of India. The unmet need (β = 0.84, 95% CI 0.55–1.14), desire of children (β = 0.26, 95% CI − 0.05–0.57) and female sterilization (β = 0.54, 95% CI 0.14–0.95) were three main contributing factor to DMSM.ConclusionDistricts of high DMSM need programmatic intervention. More attention for counselling to client, health worker outreach to user and better quality care services will stimulate non-user of contraception.

Contraceptive method use, discontinuation and failure rates among women aged 15\u201349 years: evidence from selected low income settings in Kumasi, Ghana

BackgroundThis paper provides estimates of contraceptive discontinuation and failure rates in a poor urban setting in Ghana. Contraceptive use is for the purposes of preventing unintended or mistimed pregnancies. Unfortunately, evidence abounds in many parts of the world where there is considerable levels of contraceptive failure and high levels of discontinuation resulting in unintended pregnancies.MethodsWe estimated discontinuation rates during a 12-month period since starting use by applying single and multiple decrement life table methods to the contraceptive calendar data collected in a survey of women in reproductive age of 15–49 years.ResultsModern contraceptive method use was estimated to be 13.7% at the time of the survey. The results show that contraceptive method discontinuation vary markedly by type of contraceptive method but are high for almost all methods, except for implants (23.7%). Discontinuation rate for emergency contraception was estimated at 88.5%, withdrawal 87.6%, and male condom use 80.9%. However, discontinuation rates were moderately high for rhythm (63.6%), pills (65.6%) and injectables (56%). In terms of failure rates, overall contraceptive failure for all methods was estimated at 7.9%. The factors significantly associated with method failure include being within age bracket 40–44 years (OR = 0.3, p < 0.05), having secondary/higher education (OR = 0.4, p < 0.01), belonging to the richest household wealth scale (OR = 3.3, p < 0.01), currently in union with a partner (OR = 2.2, p < 0.01), and using contraceptive methods such as rhythm (OR = 5.6, p < 0.01) and withdrawal (OR = 3.7, p < 0.01). On the flip side, the odds for method discontinuation were significantly higher for women in their 20s and mid 30s, formerly in union (OR = 1.9, p < 0.05) and use of withdrawal method (OR = 1.4, p < 0.05) and lower for women formerly in union (OR = 0.4, p < 0.01) and use of implants (OR = 0.2, p < 0.01) and injectables (OR = 0.6, p < 0.01).ConclusionWhile contraceptives use is low, both discontinuation and failure rates are high and variable among different methods. Failure and discontinuation rates are lowest for long-acting methods such as implants while higher failure rates are more prevalent among women who rely on withdrawal and the rhythm methods.

Mortality Dynamics and Life Tables of Megachile rotundata (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), a Pollinator Managed for Alfalfa Seed Production.

The alfalfa leafcutting bee, Megachile rotundata (F.), contributes to the pollination of more than two-thirds of alfalfa used in seed production in North America. However, losses in managed populations of more than 50% are common in the United States. Thus, understanding the causes of mortality of M. rotundata is critical to find ways to maintain and increase bee populations. Over 2 yr, we identified and quantified six mortality classes of M. rotundata, as well as estimated mortality risk using the demographic life-table model, M-DEC. Research was conducted on an alfalfa field in Toston, Montana and offspring mortality was assessed in the fall of each year. Nest shelters were manipulated for a main temperature treatment (low vs high), and nest boxes inside the shelters were manipulated for a parasitism sub-treatment (parasitism-resistant vs parasitism-enabled). Total mortality was approximately 15% for both years, but the proportion for each mortality class differed substantially. Mortality increased with increasing internal nest-tunnel temperature, and nest boxes with parasitism-enabled entry had nearly double the mortality than those with parasitism-resistant entry. Based on demographic multiple decrement life table analyses, mortality from each class was highly irreplaceable. Identifying and quantifying irreplaceable mortality classes and strategies to mitigate those causes may help producers decrease total population loss of M. rotundata before the adult stage.

Multiple decrement life tables of Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) across a set of barley cultivars: The importance of plant defense versus cannibalism.

Accurately estimating cause-specific mortality for immature insect herbivores is usually difficult. The insects are exposed to abiotic and biotic mortality factors, causing cadavers to simply disappear before cause of mortality can be recorded. Also, insect herbivores are often highly mobile on hosts, making it difficult to follow patterns for individuals through time. In contrast, the wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton, spends its entire egg, larval, and pupal period inside a host stem. Therefore, with periodic sampling stage-specific causes of mortality can be ascertained. Consequently, we examined C. cinctus mortality in eight barley, Hordeum vulgare L., cultivars in two locations in Montana from 2016 to 2018 by collecting stem samples from stem elongation to crop maturity at weekly intervals, and collecting overwintered barley stubs the following spring and summer from the same plots. If larvae were present, we examined larval status—dead or alive—and categorized dead individuals into one of 5 mortality categories: plant defense, cannibalism, parasitism, pathogens, and unknown factors. We used multiple decrement life tables to estimate cause-specific mortality and irreplaceable mortality (the proportion of mortality from a given cause that cannot be replaced by other causes of mortality). Plant defense (antibiosis) caused 85.7 ± 3.6%, cannibalism (governed by antixenosis) caused 70.1 ± 7.6%, parasitism caused 13.8 ± 5.9%, unknown factors caused 38.5 ± 7.6%, and pathogens caused 14.7 ± 8.5% mortality in the presence of all causes of mortality. Similarly, irreplaceable mortality due to plant defense was 22.3 ± 6.4%, cannibalism was 29.1± 4.2%, unknown factors was 6.2 ± 1.8%, pathogens was 0.9 ± 0.5%, and parasitism was 1. 5 ± 0. 6%. Antibiosis traits primarily killed newly emerged larvae, while other traits supported more favorable oviposition decisions by females, increasing mortality by obligate cannibalism. Our results suggest that breeding barley for resistance to C. cinctus targeting both categories of traits (antibiosis and antixenosis) is a highly valuable tactic for management of this important pest.

Interaction Between Beauveria bassiana (Hypocreales: Cordycipitaceae) and Coptera haywardi (Hymenoptera: Diapriidae) for the Management of Anastrepha obliqua (Diptera: Tephritidae).

The interaction between the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana (Balsamo) and the parasitoid Coptera haywardi (Oglobin), as potential biological control agents for Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart) fruit flies, was evaluated under laboratory and semi-protected field cage conditions. The effects of the parasitoids and fungus were individually and jointly assessed in Plexiglas cages. Application of B. bassiana dry conidia to soil produced 40% mortality in A. obliqua adults. However, mortality was lower (21.2%) on evaluation under field cage conditions. According to the multiple decrement life table analysis, the probability of death of A. obliqua was 88% when C. haywardi parasitoids and B. bassiana conidia were used in conjunction, 89% when only C. haywardi parasitoids were released and 23% when only B. bassiana conidia were applied. These results demonstrate that no synergistic, additive or antagonistic interaction took place with the simultaneous use of these natural enemies, since the presence of B. bassiana had no effect on the C. haywardi parasitism. These results indicate that the parasitoid is a better natural enemy for the control of A. obliqua, and show that, although the two biological control agents can be used simultaneously, their joint application will not produce increased control.

Contraceptive discontinuation in Egypt as fertility returns to its 2000 level

Purpose The similarity of family planning (FP) indicators from EDHS2014 to that of EDHS2000 is alarming for policymakers and researchers who consider it as an echo of the past and a threat, which the FP programme has to face to prevent its progression. In 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) was 3.5, the contraceptive prevalence rate was 56.1% and the discontinuation rate was 29.5%. In 2014, these indicators were 3.5, 58.5 and 30.1%, respectively. Although the change in the all method discontinuation rate is not large, it is a result of great changes in the method specific discontinuation rates, which was masked by changes in the contraceptive method mix. This study aims to present a comparison between contraceptive discontinuation rates in 2000, 2008 and 2014, discuss the reasons for discontinuation by methods and background characteristics of women and calculate the impact of eliminating discontinuation for reasons related to method and service provision on fertility. Design/methodology/approach Single/multiple decrement life tables were applied to the calendar data of the EDHS2008 and EDHS2014, to examine various net rates of contraceptive discontinuation by reasons and the status after discontinuation. The TFR estimated in the absence of method failure and abandonment while in need of births occurred within 24 months after discontinuation using installed Stata command tfr2. Findings The study estimates the impact of discontinuation on the TFR in 2014 to be an increase of about 20%. The TFR of 3.5 would have been only 2.8 if discontinuation due to method failure and method/service-related reasons were eliminated. Improvement regarding discontinuation behaviour is evident by increased switching, from 43.6 to 54.3% and the drop in the proportion of abandoning use while in need from 56.4 to 45.7%. Differentials suggest that discontinuation is expected to increase among vulnerable groups as desired fertility continues to rise. The increase in the share of “desire to become pregnant” – as a reason for discontinuation is a recent trend observed during the period between EDHS2008 and EDHS2014 and is recognised as a challenge by the national population strategy. Originality/value This study confirms that contraceptive discontinuation is an important part of the overall fertility increase observed by EDHS2014. The rising trend of increased desired family size and the shift away from using the intra uterine device may be considered as major challenges facing the FP programme in Egypt.

An evaluation of the prevalence of malignant neoplasms in Russia using an incidence-mortality model

This paper aims to estimate Russian cancer incidence and mortality derivatives given limited access to medical and demographic data. We use the population model of cancer proposed by J. Duchêne, which is a special case of a well-known multiple-decrement life table that makes it possible to obtain otherwise inaccessible indicators, such as the prevalence of cancer in the population. Applying this model to the publicly available Russian cancer incidence and mortality data, we were able to estimate the following indicators: average age at disease onset, average duration of disease, prevalence of malignant cancer, and average age at death from malignant cancer in Russia. We aimed to determine whether the prevalence of cancer is on the rise in the Russian Federation and, if it is, whether this increase is occurring due to an expansion of morbidity.&#x0D; It was found that the average age at disease onset and the average age at death from it in Russia are increasing, with the primacy of the latter. These processes are in turn resulting in an increase of the average number of years lived with cancer, thus justifying the hypothesis of an expansion of morbidity. This phenomenon, along with the increase in the incidence of malignant cancer, is what is causing the increased cancer prevalence.&#x0D; Groups of cancer localizations with the highest and lowest prevalence were identified, as well as localizations with a visible tendency toward an expansion of morbidity. It was found that in Russia the general trend is towards the expansion of morbidity, expressed by an increase in the number of years lived in an imperfect health condition. Malignant neoplasms of the lip, oral cavity and oesophagus (C00-C15) in females is the only localization for which the expansion of morbidity does not occur. For this localization a compression of morbidity is observed that is an antipode to the expansion. The main limitations and drawbacks of the study are discussed in a separate section.

Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960-2010.

This study examines proximate sources of change in first-marriage trajectories in the United States between 1960 and 2010. This was a period of tremendous social change: divorce became more common, people started marrying later or not marrying at all, innovations in medicine and changes in social and behavioral factors led to reduced mortality, inequality grew stronger and was reflected by more intense assortative mating, and the country underwent a massive educational expansion. Each of these factors influenced the formation and dissolution of first marriages over this period. This article extends the multiple-decrement life table to incorporate heterogeneity and assortative mating, which allows the quantification of how changes in the incidence of marriage, divorce, and mortality, along with changes in educational attainment and assortative mating, have shaped trends in first-marriage trajectories. The model is used to prove that stronger educational assortative mating leads to longer average durations of first marriage. Using data from multiple sources and this model, this study shows that although the incidence of divorce was the primary determinant of changes in first-marriage trajectories between 1960 and 1980, it has played a relatively smaller role in driving change in marital trajectories between 1980 and 2010. Instead, factors such as later age at first marriage, educational expansion, declining mortality, narrowing sex differences in mortality, and more intense educational assortative mating have been the major drivers of changes in first-marriage trajectories since 1980.

Оценка распространенности злокачественных новообразований в России с применением модели заболеваемость-смертность

В данной работе предпринимается попытка оценки непубликуемых производных показателей онкологической заболеваемости и смертности в населении РФ с использованием таблиц множественного выбытия – популяционной модели рака Д. Дюшен в сложившихся условиях ограниченной доступности медико-демографических данных. Смоделированные таким образом показатели (средний возраст заболевания злокачественными новообразованиями (ЗНО), средняя ожидаемая продолжительность болезни, распространенность ЗНО в населении и средний возраст смерти от ЗНО) позволят определить, происходит ли в России рост распространенности ЗНО и является ли этот рост результатом экспансии заболеваемости ЗНО (понимаемой как среднее увеличение времени, прожитого в состоянии нездоровья, обусловленного этим заболеванием)? &#x0D; Показано, что в России наблюдается сонаправленный рост среднего возраста заболевания ЗНО и среднего возраста смерти от ЗНО с приматом последнего. Результатом этих изменений является увеличение среднего числа лет, прожитых с ЗНО, а также рост распространенности ЗНО в населении РФ. Отмечены локализации с наибольшим и наименьшим наблюдаемым ростом распространенности ЗНО, а также локализации исключения из выраженной тенденции к этому росту.&#x0D; На основании проведенного анализа можно утверждать, что в России происходит экспансия заболеваемости ЗНО, выраженная в увеличении среднего числа лет, прожитого в состоянии неполного здоровья. Исключением является локализация «ЗНО губы, полости рта, глотки и пищевода» (С00-С15) у женщин, для которой отмечается компрессия заболеваемости, выраженная в сокращении числа лет, прожитых с ЗНО.

A multiple decrement analysis for studying the patterns of mortality in Bangladesh

&lt;p class="abstract"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background:&lt;/strong&gt; The effect of mortality on population structures is to reduce the component of the population in which the mortality occurs. The purpose of this analysis was to examine the probability patterns of deaths in 2000, 2004, and 2008 year by age due to a cause of death in presence of all causes to identify the main causes of disease those influence the mortality rate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p class="abstract"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods:&lt;/strong&gt; Data were collected from the health and demographic surveillance system of ICDDR, B. Patterns of mortality were examined by multiple decrement life table and line diagram. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p class="abstract"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Results:&lt;/strong&gt; The conditional probabilities of deaths from specific cause Dα (α=1, 2, 3, 4), naqαx (α=1, 2, 3, 4) of Matlab males by different years provide that for age &amp;lt;1, the female trends show the same pattern like male except maternal complications. For the age group 1-39, nearly injury and miscellaneous related causes affect most specially by drowning and accident for male. After the age 40, roughly the highest values of density function indicate non-communicable cause. For female, before age 40, mixed causes influence deaths, neonatal and maternal, communicable, injuries and miscellaneous causes. But after the age 40, more or less non-communicable disease is the leading cause in the year 2008.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p class="abstract"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/strong&gt; Death from non-communicable diseases was found to be higher for males than females. Policies aimed at increasing governmental and non-governmental services shall generally contribute to a reduction of non-communicable death rates.&lt;/p&gt;

A Review of Life Table Construction

Life table is the one of the oldest statistical techniques and is extensively used by medical statisticians and actuaries. It is also the scheme for expressing the form of mortality in terms of probabilities. The life table is constructed from census data and death registration data, it can also be constructed from vital registration or retrospective surveys. Generally, they are constructed for age, gender, ethnic groups and occupational groups and so on. Some classification of life table such as cohort or current life table which are classified according to the reference year, unabridged (complete) or abridge life table classified according to length of age interval and single or multiple decrement life table classified according to the number of characteristics considered were discussed in the article.

On survival assumptions between integer ages in the theory of competing risks

Calculating survival probabilities based on a multiple decrement life table often requires additional information at arbitrary non-integer ages or conversion formula between multiple decrement probabilities and absolute decrement rates. However, due to the discrete characteristic of the table, it is necessary to impose a certain distributional assumption about the decrements between integer ages such as the uniform distribution of decrements (UDD) or the constant forces (CF) of decrement. In this paper, inspired by the fractional independence (FI) assumption in Willmot (1997), we intend to generalize the commonly used fractional age assumptions and investigate their relationships. In particular, we are interested in relaxing the assumptions while inheriting the same conversion formula from the UDD or the CF assumption. Numerical examples show that our generalization facilitates the investigation of conversion errors caused by incorrectly using the formula when the fractional age assumption is misspecified.

A Multiple Decrement Life Table Reveals That Host Plant Resistance and Parasitism Are Major Causes of Mortality for the Wheat Stem Sawfly.

This study investigated the dynamics of parasitism, host plant resistance, pathogens, and predation on the demography of wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae), developing in susceptible (hollow stem) and resistant (solid stem) wheat hosts. This study is also the first to investigate the prevalence and impact of cannibalism on wheat stem sawfly mortality. Wheat stem sawflies were sampled in two commercial wheat fields over 4 yr from the egg stage through adult emergence, and multiple decrement life tables were constructed and analyzed. Cannibalism, host plant resistance, or unknown factors were the most prevalent factors causing egg mortality. Summer mortality of prediapause larvae ranged from 28 to 84%, mainly due to parasitism by Bracon cephi (Gahan) and Bracon lissogaster Muesebeck, cannibalism, and host plant resistance. Winter mortality ranged from 6 to 54% of the overwintering larvae, mainly due to unknown factors or pathogens. Cannibalism is a major cause of irreplaceable mortality because it is absolute, with only a single survivor in every multiple infested stem. Subsequent to obligate cannibalism, mortality of feeding larvae due to host plant resistance was lower in hollow stem wheat than in solid stem wheat. Mortality from host plant resistance was largely irreplaceable. Irreplaceable mortality due to parasitoids was greater in hollow stem wheat than in solid stem wheat. Host plant resistance due to stem solidness and parasitism in hollow stems cause substantial mortality in populations of actively feeding larvae responsible for all crop losses. Therefore, enhancing these mortality factors is vital to effective integrated pest management of wheat stem sawfly.