This paper introduces an innovative numerical scheme that may accurately quantify the parameter and response distributions with minimal computational costs, with specific applications to the numerical computation of multiphase flows under various fluid conditions. The probabilistic approach of uncertainty quantification, e.g., the Monte Carlo simulation, although known to be effective in estimating the parameter/response distribution for highly nonlinear problems, is usually not applicable to multi-physics and multi-scale integrated systems due to its high computational cost. The objective of this study is first, to reduce the computing demand for complex physical system calculations and, at the same time, to accurately predict actual probability distributions by developing a higher order deterministic approach to uncertainty quantification. To achieve this, instead of executing simulation codes multiple times to estimate the probability distribution, the first to fourth moments of the probability density function are derived directly by employing a second order Taylor expansion form of the responses along with Bayesian statistics. This characterizes the parameter and response distributions computed by inverse and forward uncertainty quantification based on their mean value, mode, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis. The parameter distribution is estimated by the numerically calculated higher moments of the parameters with a posteriori probability density function being derived by Bayesian inference. The parameter distribution is then mapped into the second order approximated response function to compute the characteristics of the response distribution through both analytical calculation and numerical approximation of the moments of the responses. The proposed approach is numerically demonstrated through simulations of two benchmark problems: MIT pressurizer and FEBA tests. The prediction of the responses is improved by inverse uncertainty quantification as numerical calculations with the a posteriori model parameters are in better agreement with the measured data over a wide range of transient periods. Additionally, the response distribution estimated by the proposed approach of forward uncertainty quantification accurately predicts the distribution computed by the Monte Carlo simulation.
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