Multifactorial Risk Model Research Articles

Predictive Validity of Multifactorial Injury Risk Models and Associated Clinical Measures in the U.S. Population.

Background: Popular movement-based injury risk screens were shown to lack predictive precision, leading to interest in multifactorial models. Furthermore, there is a lack of research regarding injury risk assessment for those currently or planning to be recreationally active. This study aims to provide injury risk insights by analyzing multifactorial injury risk models and associated clinical measures in the U.S. population. Methods: Data related to injury, inflammatory markers, physical functioning, body composition, physical activity, and other variables from 21,033 respondents were extracted from NHANES. Odds ratios for self-reported injury were calculated for single predictors and risk models. Case-control and principal component analyses (PCA) were conducted to elucidate confounders and identify risk factor clusters, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to test the precision of a risk factor cluster to identify pain points and functional difficulties. Results: Sociodemographic, individual, and lifestyle factors were strongly associated with higher odds of injury. Increases in fibrinogen and C-reactive protein were significantly associated with all risk groups. Membership to the high-risk group (age over 40, obesity, no muscle-strengthening activities, sedentary lifestyle, and low back pain) predicted at least one functional difficulty with 67.4% sensitivity and 87.2% specificity. In the injury group, bone turnover markers were higher, yet confounded by age, and there was a significantly higher prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis compared to the control. In males, low testosterone was associated with injury, and high estradiol was associated with pain and functional difficulties. In females, high follicle-stimulating hormone was associated with functional difficulties. PCA revealed four high-risk profiles, with markers and activities showing distinct loadings. Conclusions: A comprehensive approach to injury risk assessment should consider the nexus of aging, lifestyle, and chronic disease to enhance tailored injury prevention strategies, fostering safe and effective physical activity participation and reducing the burden of musculoskeletal disorders.

Genetics of gambling disorder and related phenotypes: The potential uses of polygenic and multifactorial risk models to enable early detection and improve clinical outcomes.

Gambling Disorder (GD) is an impactful behavioural addiction for which there appear to be underpinning genetic contributors. Twin studies show significant GD heritability results and intergenerational transmission show high rates of transmission. Recent developments in polygenic and multifactorial risk prediction modelling provide promising opportunities to enable early identification and intervention for at risk individuals. People with GD often have significant delays in diagnosis and subsequent help-seeking that can compromise their recovery. In this paper we advocate for more research into the utility of polygenic and multifactorial risk modelling in GD research and treatment programs and rigorous evaluation of its costs and benefits.

Analysis of the clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of triple-positive breast cancer and HER2-positive breast cancer-A retrospective study.

Adjuvant chemotherapy and targeted therapy have become standard postoperative therapeutic modalities for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer(HER2-positive,HR-negative), including triple-positive breast cancer(HER2-positive,HR-positive). However, these two types of breast cancer differ in terms of pathogenesis. This article analyzes these two types of breast cancer by comparing their prognoses. The clinicopathological characteristics of 135 patients, including 60 patients with triple-positive breast cancer and 75 patients with HER2-positive breast cancer, were analyzed to compare the disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of the two groups over a 5-year period. A multifactorial Cox risk model was constructed by grouping age, menstrual status, maximum tumor diameter, number of lymph node metastases, pathological staging, and Ki-67 staining results. All statistical data were analyzed in detail using SPSS25.0 statistical software. The 5-year OS rates of patients with breast cancer in the triple-positive and HER2-positive groups were 96.7% and 82.7%, respectively, and the 5-year DFS rates were 90% and 73.3%, respectively. The Cox results revealed that molecular staging was an independent factor affecting recurrent metastasis and survival of breast cancer patients (hazard ratio [HR] =2.199, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.296-8.266; HR = 9.994, 95% CI, 2.019-49.465). The 5-year DFS and OS rates were significantly better in the triple-positive group than in the HER2-positive group. Subgroups received different prognosis for different chemotherapy regimens. Breast cancer patients should be treated according to the risk of recurrence with symptomatic treatment and precise regulation.

Exploring the Correlation of Abnormal CXCL9 Expression with Immune Infiltration in Glioma and Patient Prognosis Based on TCGA and GTEx Databases.

In this study, we intend to identify key immune-related genes (IRGs) in gliomas using the TCGA and GTEx databases. Following collection of the RNA-seq data of lower-grade glioma (LGG) and glioblastoma (GBM) patients from the TCGA and GTEx databases, the differentially expressed IRGs (DE-IRGs) were screened. The ESTIMATE algorithm was utilized to evaluate StromalScore and ImmuneScore of LGG and GBM samples and a multifactorial Cox risk model was constructed to identify the related risk genes. The core IRGs of LGG and GBM were screened through a PPI network, followed by exploration of their correlation with glioma prognosis. The relationship between IRGs and immune cells in LGG and GBM was detected. In vitro assays were performed to detect the effect of CXCL9 on glioma cell development. We screened 403 and 492 DE-IRGs in LGG and GBM. StromalScore and ImmuneScore were related to overall survival in LGG, but not in GBM. CXCL9 was identified as a core gene in LGG and GBM and shared association with the prognosis of gliomas. Furthermore, a correlation was found between CXCL9 and immune infiltration of LGG and GBM. Glioma cell proliferation and invasion could be inhibited by silencing of CXCL9. Overall, CXCL9 is correlated to the prognosis of glioma patients and may accelerate glioma development via immune regulation.

Comprehensive epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer risk prediction model incorporating genetic and epidemiological risk factors

BackgroundEpithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) has high mortality partly due to late diagnosis. Prevention is available but may be associated with adverse effects. A multifactorial risk model based on known genetic...

The predictive ability of the 313 variant–based polygenic risk score for contralateral breast cancer risk prediction in women of European ancestry with a heterozygous BRCA1 or BRCA2 pathogenic variant

PurposeTo evaluate the association between a previously published 313 variant–based breast cancer (BC) polygenic risk score (PRS313) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk, in BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variant heterozygotes. MethodsWe included women of European ancestry with a prevalent first primary invasive BC (BRCA1 = 6,591 with 1,402 prevalent CBC cases; BRCA2 = 4,208 with 647 prevalent CBC cases) from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA), a large international retrospective series. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between overall and ER-specific PRS313 and CBC risk. ResultsFor BRCA1 heterozygotes the estrogen receptor (ER)-negative PRS313 showed the largest association with CBC risk, hazard ratio (HR) per SD = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.06–1.18), C-index = 0.53; for BRCA2 heterozygotes, this was the ER-positive PRS313, HR = 1.15, 95% CI (1.07–1.25), C-index = 0.57. Adjusting for family history, age at diagnosis, treatment, or pathological characteristics for the first BC did not change association effect sizes. For women developing first BC < age 40 years, the cumulative PRS313 5th and 95th percentile 10-year CBC risks were 22% and 32% for BRCA1 and 13% and 23% for BRCA2 heterozygotes, respectively. ConclusionThe PRS313 can be used to refine individual CBC risks for BRCA1/2 heterozygotes of European ancestry, however the PRS313 needs to be considered in the context of a multifactorial risk model to evaluate whether it might influence clinical decision-making.

Associations of Homer Scaffolding Protein 1 gene and psychological correlates with suicide attempts in Chinese: A pilot study of multifactorial risk model

BackgroundSuicide is a fatal outcome for subjects with mental ill-health. Genetic factors and psychological correlates are believed to contribute to the risk of suicide attempts (SA), whereas both factors are reported to exert a small effect. This study therefore tried to investigate if combination of the two aspects can enhance the explanation of variance in SA. MethodsA common variant rs7713917 in HOMER1 gene was genotyped for 333 Chinese psychiatric patients with or without SA. Multifactorial risk models comprised of this variant and psychological correlates were identified by logistic regression analysis (LRA) and Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) method separately, and then evaluated for their performance by biostatistical methods. ResultsAn association of A-carrier genotypes in rs7713917 with an increased risk of SA was observed (OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.08–2.98). Although with a medium effect size, this variant alone could only explain 1.9% variance of SA. Interestingly, this study was the first time to show that the association of the rs7713917 and SA was significantly mediated by the NEO conscientiousness (NEOC) dimension (p-value = 0.002), with a greater genetic effect observed in subjects with a low NEO-C level (OR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.16–7.18) but not in subjects with an average or high level. Upon the LRA method, the multifactorial risk model constituted of the two interacted factors and their interaction effect could explain up to 17.0% variance, which was almost 9-fold higher than the one explained by the rs7713917 alone. Furthermore, this model owned a higher effectiveness than the three models identified by the MDR method (p-value < 0.0007). ConclusionsThe present study identified an effective multifactorial risk model, in which the combination of the HOMER1 variant and the NEO-C dimension could enhance explanation of the variance of SA in Chinese. This pilot study may provide a novel avenue to investigate the pathogenesis of SA in psychiatric patients.

CD44 expression at the invasive tumor front: effect on patterning and prognosis in head and neck cancer

The invasive tumor front (ITF) and pattern of invasion (POI) are significant prognosticators in head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC); this study evaluates the expression of CSC marker, CD44 at the ITF and their combined prognostic potential. POI, as scored by the invasive pattern grading score (IPGS), was correlated with CD44 expression in HNSCC cell line-derived xenografts. Immunohistochemical expression of CD44 was correlated with the ITF features in patients and their combined prognostic ability assessed by multivariate analysis, Kaplan–Meier plots, and Cox regression models. Assessment of cell line-derived in vivo models indicated that drug-resistant, CD44-enriched cell lines led to generation of xenografts with aggressive POIs (IV) at the ITF. In patients (N = 173), a near significant association of CD44 with IPGS (p = 0.05) was observed. CD44 (p = 0.02), along with differentiation (p = 0.04), and lymphoplasmocytic infiltration (LPI) (p = 0.03) were independent prognosticators of recurrence. Notably, IPGS and poorly differentiated tumors were predictors of recurrence in CD44high cohort (p < 0.05), while severe LPI was a good prognosticator only in CD44low cohort (p < 0.006). In the treatment naive cohort, the prognostic efficacy was confined to the early stage patients (p < 0.007). A multifactorial risk model significantly stratified patients based on outcome (p = 0.029). CD44+ CSCs at the ITF correlated with aggressive POI and both factors together were poor prognosticators of HNSCC.

Delirium-A Framework to Improve Acute Care for Older Persons.

This article is based on the M. Powell Lawton Award Lecture that I delivered at the 2016 Gerontological Society of America Annual Meeting. I provide an overview of my journey in geriatric medicine and delirium research. I created new measures, including the Confusion Assessment Method, for identification of delirium; conceptualized a multifactorial risk model; and developed and tested intervention strategies for delirium prevention. The Hospital Elder Life Program arose from this work. In addition, like Dr. Lawton, I am working to apply my work to the policy arena. As the population ages, we face an unprecedented opportunity to realize the full benefit of aging in our society, an untapped resource. The field of aging is facing innumerable challenges in terms of continued stigma and funding shortfalls for clinical care and research. I issue a call to action to clinicians, researchers, and leaders in aging to seize this opportunity to use our know-how and expertise to transform the experience of aging for all.

Genetic Variants and Hamstring Injury in Soccer: An Association and Validation Study.

This study aimed to investigate the association of candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) with noncontact hamstring muscle injuries in elite soccer players and to create and validate a model to assess the risk of hamstring injury. A total of 107 elite male outfield players were prospectively followed for six seasons. Players were genotyped for 37 SNP previously investigated in relation to musculoskeletal injuries. The association of SNP, previous injury, age, level of play, position, and anthropometric data with 129 hamstring injuries (413 observations) was investigated in the discovery phase (2010-2015), and a multivariable Cox frailty model was created using forward selection. The model's discriminative ability was tested in the validation phase (2015-2016, 31 injuries, 98 observations) using Harrell's C index. Five SNP were found to be significantly associated with hamstring injury in a multivariable model: matrix metalloproteinase 3 rs679620 (A vs G, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.51-2.81), tenascin C rs2104772 (A vs T, HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.17-2.32), interleukin 6 rs1800795 (GG vs GC + CC, HR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.11-2.53), nitric oxide synthase 3 rs1799983 (G vs T, HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.01-1.79), and hypoxia-inducible factor-1α rs11549465 (CC vs CT, HR = 2.08, 95% CI = 1.00-4.29). Age also entered the model (≥24 vs <24 yr, HR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.29-3.42). The model showed acceptable discrimination in the discovery phase (C index = 0.74), but not in the validation phase (C index = 0.52). Genetic variants appear to be involved in the etiology of hamstring injuries but were not found to have predictive value by themselves. Further research, increasing the number of genetic variants and including environmental factors in complex multifactorial risk models, is necessary.

Pharmacogenetics of toxicity of 5-fluorouracil, doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy in breast cancer patients.

The differences in patients’ response to the same medication, toxicity included, are one of the major problems in breast cancer treatment. Chemotherapy toxicity makes a significant clinical problem due to decreased quality of life, prolongation of treatment and reinforcement of negative emotions associated with therapy.In this study we evaluated the genetic and clinical risk factors of FAC chemotherapy-related toxicities in the group of 324 breast cancer patients. Selected genes and their polymorphisms were involved in FAC drugs transport (ABCB1, ABCC2, ABCG2,SLC22A16), metabolism (ALDH3A1, CBR1, CYP1B1, CYP2C19, DPYD, GSTM1, GSTP1, GSTT1, MTHFR,TYMS), DNA damage recognition, repair and cell cycle control (ATM, ERCC1, ERCC2, TP53, XRCC1).The multifactorial risk models that combine genetic risk modifiers and clinical characteristics were constructed for 12 toxic symptoms. The majority of toxicities was dependent on the modifications in components of more than one pathway of FAC drugs, while the impact level of clinical factors was comparable to the genetic ones. For the carriers of multiple high risk factors the chance of developing given symptom was significantly elevated which proved the factor-dosage effect. We found the strongest associations between concurrent presence of clinical factors - overall and recurrent anemia, nephrotoxicity and early nausea and genetic polymorphisms in genes responsible for DNA repair, drugs metabolism and transport pathways. These results indicate the possibility of selection of the patients with expected high tolerance to FAC treatment and consequently with high chance of chemotherapy completion without the dose reduction, treatment delays and decline in the quality of life.

The association between harm avoidance personality traits and self-reported concussion history in South African rugby union players.

Personality traits have been proposed to affect the risk of sports concussion, but evidence is limited. Cloninger's Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire (TPQ) measures novelty seeking, harm avoidance (HA), and reward dependence traits. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between TPQ scores and concussion history in rugby union players. Cross-sectional study. Rugby players from high schools, senior amateur clubs, and professional teams provided a self-reported concussion history and completed the TPQ. Participants reporting no previous concussions formed the control group, while participants reporting concussion formed the case group. A one-way analysis of covariance, with age as a covariate, was used to examine the differences in TPQ scores between groups. Of the 309 participants, 54% reported a minimum of one concussion (junior: 47%; amateur: 52%; professional: 72%). HA scores were significantly higher in junior players without a history of concussion compared to cases (p=0.006). Specifically, the junior control group had higher "anticipatory worry" (p=0.009) and "fear of uncertainty" (p=0.008). In contrast, the professional control group had lower HA scores than cases (p=0.009), while the amateur cohort displayed no differences between control and case groups. This study identified a novel association between HA and concussion in rugby players, adding evidence to the role of personality in a multifactorial risk-model of concussion. The findings suggest that lower HA may lead to increased dangerous play in youth rugby, influencing concussion susceptibility. Contrasting associations in the professional cohort suggest further research is required to understand the role of personality in concussion.

Discovery of novel plasma proteins as biomarkers for the development of incisional hernias after midline incision in patients with colorectal cancer: The ColoCare study

Ventral incisional hernia is the most common long-term complication after an abdominal operation. Among newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients, we screened the preoperative plasma proteome to explore predictive markers for the development of an incisional hernia. We utilized preoperative plasma samples of 72 newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients who underwent midline incision for tumor resection between 2010 and 2013. A total of 21 patients with incisional hernia occurrence were matched with 51 patients with at least 18months follow-up without an incisional hernia by sex, age, and body mass index. To assess predictive markers of incisional hernia risk, we screened the plasma proteome for >2,000 distinct proteins using a well-validated antibody microarray test. Paired t tests were used to compare protein levels between cases and controls. A gene-set-enrichment analysis (Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes) was applied to test for differences in signaling pathways between the 2 groups. The proteome screen identified 25 proteins that showed elevated or reduced plasma levels in the hernia group compared to the control group (nominal P values<.05). Several proteins were in pathways associated with wound healing (CCL21, SHBG, BRF2) or cell adhesion (PCDH15, CDH3, EPCAM). Our study shows that there are multiple individual and groups of plasma proteins that could feasibly predict the personal hernia risk prior to undergoing an operation. Further investigations in larger, independent sample sets are warranted to replicate findings and validate clinical utility of potential biomarkers. After validation, such a biomarker could be incorporated into a multifactorial risk model to guide clinical decision-making.

Abstract 4921: Plasma proteomics for the discovery of biomarkers of incisional hernia in colorectal cancer patients in the ColoCare Study

Abstract Background Incisional hernia is the most common long-term complication after laparotomy for colorectal cancer resection with an incidence of 9-20%. Predisposing factors have been identified. Nevertheless, there are limited approaches to precisely predict individual risk, creating a need for predictive biomarkers of incisional hernia development. Methods We utilized pre-operative plasma samples of patients with newly diagnosed colorectal cancer [n = 72; (stage I-IV)] from the ColoCare Study in Heidelberg, Germany, who underwent laparoscopic tumor resection between 2010 and 2013. Patient questionnaires and telephone-interviews were used to assess the incidence of an incisional hernia, and demographic and clinical-surgical data were abstracted from medical records. 21 patients with incisional hernia occurrence were matched with 51 patients without an incisional hernia ( = controls) by gender, age, and BMI with at least 18 months follow-up. To assess predictive markers of incisional hernia risk we screened the plasma proteome for 3061 proteins using a well-validated antibody microarray test. Paired t-tests were used to compare protein levels between cases and controls. A gene-set-enrichment analysis (Gene Ontology and KEGG) was applied to test for differences in signaling pathways between the two groups. Results The proteome screen identified 27 proteins that showed elevated or reduced plasma levels in the hernia group compared to the control group (nominal p-values &amp;lt;0.05). Most of these proteins were connected to cell adhesion and inflammation, e.g. the encoding genes CCL21, IL12A, EPCAM and CDH3. The gene-set-enrichment analysis identified several pathways of extracellular matrix receptor interaction or cell proliferation that differed significantly between the hernia and control group. Conclusion To date no predictive blood-based biomarkers of incisional hernia risk are available. We discovered several candidate protein biomarkers which, after validation in further studies, could be incorporated into a multifactorial risk model to guide clinical decision making. This could enable the initiation of prophylactic treatments such as a mesh implantation and individualized patient recommendations to prevent incisional hernia occurrence in high-risk patients. Citation Format: Jürgen Böhm, Frank Pianka, Nina Stüttgen, Biljana Gigic, Yuzheng Zhang, Petra Schrotz-King, Nina Habermann, Alexis Ulrich, Martin Schneider, Paul Lampe, Markus Diener, Cornelia M. Ulrich. Plasma proteomics for the discovery of biomarkers of incisional hernia in colorectal cancer patients in the ColoCare Study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr 4921.

Prävention bipolarer Störungen

In the past, preventive measures for psychoses have focused mainly on schizophrenic disorders. Bipolar disorders are often diagnosed and treated with a significant delay. The expansion of preventive measures for bipolar disorders aims at minimizing the substantial negative consequences associated with the disease. Some of the shared aspects of prevention in psychoses and bipolar disorders are that the first symptoms commonly appear during adolescence and early adulthood and that there is a symptomatic overlap between the disorders. To improve efforts to seek early help, public information about mental illness, low threshold services as well as cooperation between adult, child and adolescent psychiatry are needed for this target group. One differences is that psychotic symptoms play a minor role in bipolar disorders. Specific biological markers, such as disturbances of sleep and circadian rhythm and clinical characteristics, such as substance use and behavioral problems in childhood and youth supplement (subsyndromal) clinical symptoms in a multifactorial risk model. Besides severity and frequency of symptoms, specific periodic course patterns are crucial. Strategies of early intervention require a careful consideration of risks and benefits. Two aims should be distinguished: the improvement of current symptomatology and the prevention of conversion to bipolar disorder. Currently, studies evaluating risks and benefits of such interventions are first conducted. Expertise and resources for early recognition of psychoses and bipolar disorders should be pooled. Common standards are the basis for advancement and implementation of preventive strategies for bipolar disorders.

Risk Factors of Delirium after Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review

Delirium or acute confusion is a temporary mental disorder that occurs frequently among hospitalized elderly patients, but also in younger patients a delirium can develop. Patients who undergo cardiac surgery have an increased risk of developing delirium that is associated with many negative consequences. Therefore, prevention of delirium is essential. Despite the high incidence of delirium, a paucity of data on risk factors for delirium exists. The aim of this study was to summarize the available information concerning these risk factors. A literature research was performed using the PubMed, Cinahl, and Cochrane Library databases and was limited to the last 10 years. Our review revealed 27 risk factors; 12 predisposing and 15 precipitating factors for delirium after cardiac surgery. The most established predisposing risk factors were atrial fibrillation, cognitive impairment, depression, history of stroke, older age, and peripheral vascular disease. The most established precipitating risk factor was a red blood cell transfusion. An abnormal albumin level was reported as the most established precipitating risk factor among blood values tested. A low cardiac output and the use of an Intra Aortic Balloon Pump or inotropic medication seem to be the most relevant risk factors associated with a postoperative delirium. A multifactorial risk model should be applied to identify patients at an increased risk of developing delirium following elective cardiac surgery. In these patients, if possible, preventative interventions can be taken and early recognition of delirium can be realized. This could potentially decrease the incidence of delirium and negative consequences caused by a postoperative delirium.

Cardiovascular disease risk and the need for prevention after paraplegia determined by conventional multifactorial risk models: The Stockholm spinal cord injury study

To assess the need for intervention on cardio-vascular disease risks in persons with paraplegia according to: (i) two multifactorial risk models; and (ii) these models in combination with the additional risk of overweight/obesity. Cross-sectional. A total of 134 out of 153 persons, comprising more than 80% of a regional prevalence population with traumatic paraplegia (American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale A-C) of minimum one year duration. Participants were screened for cardiovascular disease risk using two multifactorial risk models: the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation and the Framingham Risk Equation. Risk factors included were: age, gender, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, smoking, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol/total cholesterol ratio. In addition, overweight/obesity was assessed by body mass index. Twenty-seven percent to 36% of the cohort was eligible for cardiovascular disease risk intervention, depending on the risk model used. When overweight/obesity (spinal cord injury adjusted cut-score body mass index ≥ 22) was also considered, over 80% of the participants qualified for intervention. Almost one-third of persons with paraplegia were eligible for cardiovascular disease risk intervention according to authoritative assessment tools. The number in need of intervention was dramatically increased when overweight/obesity as a cardiovascular disease risk was considered.

Functional and structural measurements in a multifactorial glaucoma risk model

To evaluate the relationship between a multifactorial probability risk model of developing glaucomatous visual field defects and the assessment of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and short-wavelength automated perimetry (SWAP) in glaucoma suspects. 157 eyes of 157 glaucoma suspects were included in the study. The risk of developing glaucomatous defects was assessed by applying a multifactorial model that included intraocular pressure, vertical cup-to-disk ratio, age and family history. Photographs of the RNFL and SWAP were performed. The SWAP was abnormal in 54 cases (34.3%); 21% of abnormal perimetries were obtained in the low-risk group, 37% in the moderate risk group and 56% in the high risk group. The nerve fiber layer evaluation in the different risk stages showed a pattern similar to the results obtained with SWAP. Multiple regression analyses, performed with the four variables included in the model with SWAP and RNFL evaluation, showed the relationship between the risk factors and the presence of glaucomatous damage--evaluated by RNFL and SWAP (p<0001). The probability model showed a good correlation between the risk scale and the RNFL and SWAP assessment.

Risk for speech disorder associated with early recurrent otitis media with effusion: two retrospective studies.

The goals of this two-part series on children with histories of early recurrent otitis media with effusion (OME) were to assess the risk for speech disorder with and without hearing loss and to develop a preliminary descriptive-explanatory model for the findings. Recently available speech analysis programs, lifespan reference data, and statistical techniques were implemented with three cohorts of children with OME and their controls originally assessed in the 1980s: 35 typically developing 3-year-old children followed since infancy in a university-affiliated pediatrics clinic, 50 typically developing children of Native American background followed since infancy in a tribal health clinic, and (in the second paper) 70 children followed prospectively from 2 months of age to 3 years of age and older. Dependent variables included information from a suite of 10 metrics of speech production (Shriberg, Austin, Lewis, McSweeny, & Wilson, 1997a, 1 997b). Constraints on available sociodemographic and hearing status information limit generalizations from the comparative findings for each database, particularly data from the two retrospective studies. The present paper reports findings from risk analysis of conversational speech data from the first two cohorts, each of which included retrospective study of children for whom data on hearing loss were not available. Early recurrent OME was not associated with increased risk for speech disorder in the pediatrics sample but was associated with approximately 4.6 (CI = 1.10-20.20) increased risk for subclinical or clinical speech disorder in the children of Native American background. Discussion underscores the appropriateness of multifactorial risk models for this subtype of child speech disorder.