Multivariate Meta-regression Model Research Articles

Temperature-mortality associations by age and cause: a multi-country multi-city study.

Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries. We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country. Mortality data was provided as daily death counts within age groups from all, cardiovascular, respiratory, or noncardiorespiratory causes. We first fit quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate location-specific associations for each age-by-cause group. For each cause, we then pooled location-specific results in a dose-response multivariate meta-regression model that enabled us to estimate overall temperature-mortality curves at any age. The age analysis was limited to adults. We observed high temperature effects on mortality from both cardiovascular and respiratory causes compared to noncardiorespiratory causes, with the highest cold-related risks from cardiovascular causes and the highest heat-related risks from respiratory causes. Risks generally increased with age, a pattern most consistent for cold and for nonrespiratory causes. For every cause group, risks at both temperature extremes were strongest at the oldest age (age 85 years). Excess mortality fractions were highest for cold at the oldest ages. There is a differential pattern of risk associated with heat and cold by cause and age; cardiorespiratory causes show stronger effects than noncardiorespiratory causes, and older adults have higher risks than younger adults.

Characterizing the seasonal influenza disease burden attributable to climate variability: A nationwide time-series modelling study in Japan, 2000–2019

BackgroundAmbient temperature and humidity are established environmental stressors with regard to influenza infections; however, mapping disease burden is difficult owing to the complexities of the underlying associations and differences in vulnerable population distributions. In this study, we aimed to quantify the burden of influenza attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity in Japan considering geographical differences in vulnerability. MethodsThe exposure−lag−response relationships between influenza incidence, ambient temperature, and absolute humidity in all 47 Japanese prefectures for 2000–2019 were quantified using a distributed lag non-linear model for each prefecture; the estimates from all the prefectures were then pooled using a multivariate mixed-effects meta-regression model to derive nationwide average associations. Association between prefecture-specific indicators and the risk were also examined. Attributable risks were estimated for non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity according to the exposure−lag−response relationships obtained before. ResultsA total of 25,596,525 influenza cases were reported during the study period. Cold and dry conditions significantly increased influenza incidence risk. Compared with the minimum incidence weekly mean ambient temperature (29.8 °C) and the minimum incidence weekly mean absolute humidity (20.2 g/m3), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) of influenza in cold (2.5 °C) and dry (3.6 g/m3) conditions were 2.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78−4.37) and 3.20 (95% CI: 2.37−4.31), respectively. The higher RRs for cold and dry conditions were associated with geographical and climatic indicators corresponding to the central and northern prefectures; demographic, socioeconomic, and health resources indicators showed no clear trends. Finally, 27.25% (95% empirical CI [eCI]: 5.54−36.35) and 32.35% (95% eCI: 22.39−37.87) of all cases were attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity (6,976,300 [95% eCI: 1,420,068−9,306,128] and 8,280,981 [95% eCI: 8,280,981−9,693,532] cases), respectively. ConclusionsThese findings could help identify the most vulnerable populations in Japan and design adaptation policies to reduce the attributable burden of influenza due to climate variability.

The heat-mortality association in Jordan: Effect modification by greenness, population density and urbanization level

BackgroundThe Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change, yet evidence of the heat-related mortality remains limited in this area. Our present study investigated the heat-mortality association in Jordan and the potential modifying effect of greenness, population density and urbanization level on the association. MethodsFor each of the 42 included districts, daily meteorological and mortality data from 2000 to 2020 were obtained for the warmest months (May to September). First, a distributed lag non-linear model was applied to estimate the district level heat-mortality association, then the district specific estimates were pooled using multivariate meta-regression models to obtain an overall estimate. Last, the modifying effect of district level greenness, population density and urbanization level was examined through subgroup analysis. ResultsWhen compared to the minimum mortality temperature (MMT, percentile 0th, 22.20 °C), the 99th temperature percentile exhibited a relative risk (RR) of 1.34 (95 % CI 1.23, 1.45). Districts with low greenness had a higher heat-mortality risk (RR 1.39, 95 % CI 1.22, 1.58) when compared to the high greenness (RR 1.28, 95 % CI 1.13, 1.45). While heat-mortality risk did not significantly differ between population density subgroups, highly urbanized districts had a greater heat-mortality risk (RR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.23, 1.62) as compared to ones with low levels of urbanization (RR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.13, 1.55). Districts with high urbanization level had the highest heat-mortality risk if they were further categorized as having low greenness (RR 1.63, 95 % CI 1.30, 2.04). ConclusionExposure to heat was associated with increased mortality risk in Jordan. This risk was higher in districts with low greenness and high urbanization level. As climate change-related heat mortality will be on the rise, early warning systems in highly vulnerable communities in Jordan are required and greening initiatives should be pursued.

Systemic steroids and bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

It is unclear if systemic steroids decrease the risk of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia (BPD) while increasing the risk of neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI). Conduct a systematic review of randomized controlled trials of systemic steroids to evaluate the risk of BPD, mortality, and NDI in premature infants ≤30 weeks. MEDLINE, EBSCOhost, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, and CINAHL. Randomized clinical trials of Dexamethasone (DEX) or Hydrocortisone (HC) to prevent BPD in premature infants ≤ 30 weeks. Data were extracted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and multivariable meta-regression were conducted. Primary outcomes were BPD, mortality, and NDI. Secondary outcomes were hypertension, hyperglycemia, sepsis, intestinal perforation, necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). The a priori hypothesis was that steroids would reduce the risk of BPD without increasing NDI. There were 6377 preterm infants in the 44 (32 DEX, 13 HC) selected studies. DEX significantly reduced the risk of BPD, RR = 0.66, (95% CI, 0.56-0.78). The most effective DEX regimen was medium cumulative dose (2 to 3 mg/kg), RR = 0.43 (95% CI, 0.29-0.65); day of initiation <8 days: RR = 0.68, (95% CI, 0.59-0.79); and treatment for ≥14 days: RR = 0.67 (95% CI, 0.55-0.80). HC did not significantly decrease the risk of BPD, RR = 0.98, (95% CI, 0.87-1.10). Neither DEX, (RR = 0.92, 95% CI, 0.78-1.09) nor HC (RR = 0.83, 95% CI, 0.68-1.01) decrease the risk of mortality. The risk of CP was not increased by either DEX (RR = 1.09, 95% CI, 0.55-2.17) or HC (RR = 1.18, 95% CI, 0.75-1.87). There were no significant differences between steroids and placebo for MDI/PDI scores. Multivariable meta-regression models showed that DEX significantly reduced the risk of BPD without increased risk of CP. DEX increased the risk of hypertension and hyperglycemia. Studies showed high heterogeneity, differing treatment regimen, missing data and different rates of follow-up. DEX, but not HC, significantly decreased the risk of BPD. Neither steroid showed an increased risk of NDI or mortality.

Influence of age and race on axial elongation in myopic children: A systematic review and meta-regression.

Axial elongation is the basis of progression in primary myopia and the preferred metric to monitor its evolution. We conducted a meta-regression to model axial elongation and its associated factors in children with low to moderate myopia. A comprehensive electronic systematic search was performed using Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials of studies conducted up until October 2021. The mean rate of axial elongation was analyzed using a multivariate linear mixed-effects meta-regression model, with backward stepwise elimination of nonsignificant covariates. The model included three levels of random effects, allowing both prediction and confidence intervals to be estimated. A total of 64 studies with 83 subpopulations and 142 evaluations of mean axial change from baseline met our inclusion criteria and had no missing significant covariates in the final model. A separate analysis including all populations with axial length data (202 evaluations) but missing variance or covariate data produced a similar model to that for the analysis with complete data. The mean axial elongation is 38% greater in Asian children (95% confidence interval, 19 to 61%; p<0.01) compared with non-Asians, but both groups show a 15% decline per year as age increases (95% confidence interval, 12 to 17% p<0.0001). Prediction intervals indicate substantial variability around the axial elongation estimates. This analysis provides mean values of axial elongation for evaluation of efficacy of myopia control. The broad prediction intervals emphasize the large range of individual axial elongation rates in the population, illustrating the challenge in managing individual children. Interpretation of the analysis is limited by the use of aggregated data rather than individual subject data.

Food Insecurity among Iranian Pregnant Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Estimating the prevalence of food insecurity among vulnerable sub-groups, especially pregnant women, is significant. This study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of food insecurity among Iranian pregnant women and to determine its related factors. This study constitutes a systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies involving pregnant women, published between January 2000 and September 2022, in English and Persian on seven databases. Finally, 14 studies were analyzed and synthesized, with the results presented in the form of forest plots. Heterogeneity was investigated using the I2 index and the meta-regression to evaluate variables suspected of causing heterogeneity. Statistical analysis and synthesis were performed using Stata-16. The pooled prevalence of food insecurity among Iranian pregnant women was 45% (95% confidence interval: 37-54%). In a multi-variable meta-regression model, p values were significant for the year of data collection and the type of the questionnaire. The adjusted I2 and R2 indices were estimated at 84.47 and 51.46%, respectively. The prevalence of food insecurity among Iranian pregnant women has been estimated at half a million. Given the high prevalence of food insecurity among pregnant women in Iran, we propose the inclusion of food insecurity screening for this vulnerable demographic within the primary healthcare package. Additionally, we advocate for the allocation of food subsidies to pregnant women confronting food insecurity.

Financial deepening on income inequality: A quantitative meta-analysis study

AbstractThere exists a vast empirical literature on Financial Sector Development (FSD) and the income inequality nexus; however, it lacks consensus. To study this, 24 studies with 87 regression estimates on financial institution depth and income inequality were collected. This paper used the most common method of economic meta-analysis, the Partial Correlation Coefficient (PCC), to answer the question: What is the magnitude and impact, if any, of financial institution depth on income inequality? In addition, a multivariate meta-regression model was used to find moderator variables that produced mixed results in the literature. The results show that the global average comovement of financial institution depth (domestic credit) on income inequality is very small but positive; suggesting that growth in domestic credit may widen income inequality. The positive correlation between domestic credit and income inequality highlights how financial institutions use household income and collateral as a signal when deciding on credit applications. Finally, the multivariate regression results suggest that the present heterogeneity within the literature stems from different methodologies and control variables included in the econometric models, and panel studies that mix countries with heterogeneous characteristics. These suggest that different components of FSD may impact income inequality differently.

The association between humidex and tuberculosis: a two-stage modelling nationwide study in China

BackgroundUnder a changing climate, the joint effects of temperature and relative humidity on tuberculosis (TB) are poorly understood. To address this research gap, we conducted a time-series study to explore the joint effects of temperature and relative humidity on TB incidence in China, considering potential modifiers.MethodsWeekly data on TB cases and meteorological factors in 22 cities across mainland China between 2011 and 2020 were collected. The proxy indicator for the combined exposure levels of temperature and relative humidity, Humidex, was calculated. First, a quasi-Poisson regression with the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was constructed to examine the city-specific associations between humidex and TB incidence. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was used to pool the city-specific effect estimates, and to explore the potential effect modifiers.ResultsA total of 849,676 TB cases occurred in the 22 cities between 2011 and 2020. Overall, a conspicuous J-shaped relationship between humidex and TB incidence was discerned. Specifically, a decrease in humidex was positively correlated with an increased risk of TB incidence, with a maximum relative risk (RR) of 1.40 (95% CI: 1.11–1.76). The elevated RR of TB incidence associated with low humidex (5th humidex) appeared on week 3 and could persist until week 13, with a peak at approximately week 5 (RR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01–1.05). The effects of low humidex on TB incidence vary by Natural Growth Rate (NGR) levels.ConclusionA J-shaped exposure-response association existed between humidex and TB incidence in China. Humidex may act as a better predictor to forecast TB incidence compared to temperature and relative humidity alone, especially in regions with higher NGRs.

The effect of differences in trial design on estimates of efficacy of olanzapine in randomized studies

BackgroundDifferences in trial design may affect estimates of efficacy of psychotropic drugs. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to evaluate whether the use of Olanzapine (OLZ) as either investigational or control drug affects the observed efficacy of OLZ. MethodsWe performed a search for Randomized-Controlled Trials (RCTs) in which the efficacy of OLZ is assessed in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. We assessed overall efficacy of OLZ and performed subgroup analyses of studies with OLZ as intervention or comparator. Mixed-effect meta-regression analyses were performed. ResultsOf the 25 RCTs included, OLZ was considered as investigational drug or active control in 13 and 12 studies, respectively. The reduction of PANSS score was greater in trials in which OLZ was used as investigational drug. Multivariate meta-regression models showed that a higher PANSS score at baseline and trial duration were the main predictors of greater PANSS score reduction. ConclusionsTrials with OLZ used as investigational drug differ from those of trials with OLZ as comparator for baseline PANSS scores and study duration; these differences may produce differences in estimates of efficacy. As a consequence, the severity of illness at enrollment and trial duration should be carefully considered to ensure the reliability of indirect comparisons among antipsychotics.

Ambient temperature and risk of cardiovascular and respiratory adverse health outcomes: a nationwide cross-sectional study from Spain.

We assessed the association of temperature and temperature variability with cause-specific emergency hospitalizations and mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Spain, as well as the effect modification of this association by individual and contextual factors. We collected data on health (hospital admissions and mortality), weather (temperature and relative humidity), and relevant contextual indicators for 48 Spanish provinces during 2004-2019. The statistical analysis was separately performed for the summer (June-September) and winter (December-March) seasons. We first applied a generalized linear regression model with quasi-Poisson distribution to estimate daily province-specific temperature-health associations, and then we fitted multilevel multivariate meta-regression models to the evaluate effect modification of the contextual characteristics on heat- and cold-related risks. High temperature increased the risk of mortality across all cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with the strongest effect for hypertension (relative risk (RR) at 99th temperature percentile vs. optimum temperature: 1.510 [95% empirical confidence interval {eCI} 1.251 to 1.821]), heart failure (1.528 [1.353 to 1.725]), and pneumonia (2.224 [1.685 to 2.936]). Heat also had an impact on all respiratory hospitalization causes (except asthma), with similar risks between pneumonia (1.288 [1.240 to 1.339]), acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis (1.307 [1.219 to 1.402]), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.260 [1.158 to 1.372]). We generally found significant risks related to low temperature for all cardiovascular and respiratory causes, with heart failure (RR at 1st temperature percentile vs. optimum temperature: 1.537 [1.329 to 1.779]) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.885 [1.646 to 2.159]) exhibiting the greatest risk for hospitalization, and acute myocardial infarction (1.860 [1.546 to 2.238]) and pneumonia (1.734 [1.219 to 2.468]) for mortality. Women and the elderly were more vulnerable to heat, while people with secondary education were less susceptible to cold compared to those not achieving this educational stage. Results from meta-regression showed that increasing heating access to the highest current provincial value (i.e. 95.6%) could reduce deaths due to cold by 59.5% (57.2 to 63.5). Exposure to low and high temperatures was associated with a greater risk of morbidity and mortality from multiple cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, and heating was the most effective societal adaptive measure to reduce cold-related mortality.

Prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in the Middle East and North Africa.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly known as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is common and closely associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We assessed the prevalence of NAFLD/MASLD in the general population and among patients with T2D in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We searched PubMed and Embase for English-language articles published between 1990 and 2023 according to PRISMA. Each country's NAFLD/MASLD prevalence in the general population and in T2D patients was predicted by using a multivariable meta regression model. Input data were extracted from our systematic review, GBD and NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Confidence intervals were constructed by using prediction intervals with the delta method. Meta-analytic pooling estimated the prevalence of NAFLD/MASLD as 39.43% in the general population and 68.71% among T2D patients. NAFLD/MASLD prevalence has increased from 35.42% (2008-2016) to 46.20% (2017-2020). Using GBD-2019 dataset, it was predicted that there are 141.51 million cases of NAFLD/MASLD in the MENA region. The highest number of NAFLD/MASLD cases were expected in Egypt (25.71 million), followed by Türkiye (23.33 million) and Iran (19.85 million). Estimated NAFLD prevalence exceeded 40% in 10 of 21 countries with the top countries being Kuwait (45.37%), Egypt (45.0%), Qatar (44.4%), and Jordan (43.3%). Furthermore, it was predicted that there are 24.96 million cases of NAFLD/MASLD with T2D in the MENA region. In the MENA region, prevalence of NAFLD/MASLD is very high and growing, necessitating an urgent need for regional public policy to deal with this growing burden.

Associations of meteorological factors and dynamics of scrub typhus incidence in South Korea: A nationwide time-series study

Scrub typhus, also known as Tsutsugamushi disease, is a climate-sensitive vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. However, studies on the association between scrub typhus epidemics and meteorological factors in South Korea need to be complemented. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the association among ambient temperature, precipitation, and the incidence of scrub typhus in South Korea. First, we obtained data on the weekly number of scrub typhus cases and concurrent meteorological variables at the city-county level (Si-Gun) in South Korea between 2001 and 2019. Subsequently, a two-stage meta-regression analysis was conducted. In the first stage, we conducted time-series regression analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to investigate the association between temperature, precipitation, and scrub typhus incidence at each location. In the second stage, we employed a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates from all municipalities, considering regional indicators, such as mite species distribution, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and urban-rural classification. Weekly mean temperature and weekly total precipitation exhibited a reversed U-shaped nonlinear association with the incidence of scrub typhus. The overall cumulative association with scrub typhus incidence peaked at 18.7 C° (with RRs of 9.73, 95% CI: 5.54–17.10) of ambient temperature (reference 9.7 C°) and 162.0 mm (with RRs of 1.87, 95% CI: 1.02–3.83) of precipitation (reference 2.8 mm), respectively. These findings suggest that meteorological factors contribute to scrub typhus epidemics by interacting with vectors, reservoir hosts, and human behaviors. This information serves as a reference for future public health policies and epidemiological research aimed at controlling scrub typhus infections.

Contribution of pressure and flow changes to resistance reduction after pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment: a meta-analysis of 3898 patients.

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH)-targeted therapies exert significant haemodynamic changes; however, systematic synthesis is currently lacking. We searched PubMed, CENTRAL and Web of Science for studies evaluating mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP), cardiac index/cardiac output (CI/CO) and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) of PAH-targeted therapies either in monotherapy or combinations as assessed by right heart catheterisation in treatment-naïve PAH patients. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis with meta-regression. We included 68 studies (90 treatment groups) with 3898 patients (age 47.4±13.2 years, 74% women). In studies with small PVR reduction (<4 WU), CI/CO increase (R2=62%) and not mPAP reduction (R2=24%) was decisive for the PVR reduction (p<0.001 and p=0.36, respectively, in the multivariable meta-regression model); however, in studies with large PVR reduction (>4 WU), both CI/CO increase (R2=72%) and mPAP reduction (R2=35%) contributed significantly to the PVR reduction (p<0.001 and p=0.01, respectively). PVR reduction as a percentage of the pre-treatment value was more pronounced in the oral+prostanoid intravenous/subcutaneous combination therapy (mean difference -50.0%, 95% CI -60.8- -39.2%), compared to oral combination therapy (-41.7%, -47.6- -35.8%), prostanoid i.v./s.c. monotherapy (-31.8%, -37.6- -25.9%) and oral monotherapy (-21.6%, -25.4- -17.8%). Changes in haemodynamic parameters were significantly associated with changes in functional capacity of patients with PAH as expressed by the 6-min walking distance. Combination therapies, especially with the inclusion of parenteral prostanoids, lead to remarkable haemodynamic improvement in treatment-naïve PAH patients and may unmask the contribution of mPAP reduction to the overall PVR reduction in addition to the increase in CO.

Drivers of the time-varying heat-cold-mortality association in Spain: A longitudinal observational study

BackgroundA number of studies have reported reductions in mortality risk due to heat and cold over time. However, questions remain about the drivers of these adaptation processes to ambient temperatures. We aimed to analyse the demographic and socioeconomic drivers of the downward trends in vulnerability to heat- and cold-related mortality observed in Spain during recent decades (1980–2018). MethodsWe collected data on all-cause mortality, temperature and relevant contextual indicators for 48 provinces in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2018. Fourteen contextual indicators were analysed representing ageing, isolation, urbanicity, heating, air conditioning (AC), house antiquity and ownership, education, life expectancy, macroeconomics, socioeconomics, and health investment. The statistical analysis was separately performed for the range of months mostly causing heat- (June-September) and cold- (October-May) related mortality. We first applied a quasi-Poisson generalised linear regression in combination with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to estimate province-specific temperature-mortality associations for different periods, and then we fitted univariable and multivariable multilevel spatiotemporal meta-regression models to evaluate the effect modification of the contextual characteristics on heat- and cold-related mortality risks over time. FindingsThe average annual mean temperature has risen at an average rate of 0·36 °C per decade in Spain over 1980–2012, although the increase in temperature has been more pronounced in summer (0·40 °C per decade in June-September) than during the rest of the year (0·33 °C per decade). This warming has been observed, however, in parallel with a progressive reduction in the mortality risk associated to both hot and cold temperatures. We found independent associations for AC with heat-related mortality, and heating with cold-related mortality. AC was responsible for about 28·6% (31·5%) of the decrease in deaths due to heat (extreme heat) between 1989 and 1993 and 2009–2013, and heating for about 38·3% (50·8%) of the reductions in deaths due to cold (extreme cold) temperatures. Ageing (ie, proportion of population over 64 years) attenuated the decrease in cold-related mortality. InterpretationAC and heating are effective societal adaptive measures to heat and cold temperatures. This evidence holds important implications for climate change health adaptation policies, and for the projections of climate change impacts on human health.

Summer heat waves and their mortality risk over a 14-year period in a western region of Iran.

Compared to previous decade, impact of heat waves (HWs) on mortality in recent years needs to be discussed in Iran. We investigated temporal change in added impact of summer HWs on mortality in eight cities of Iran. The pooled length of HWs was compared between 2015-2022 and 2008-2014 using random and fixed-effects of meta-analysis regression model. The temporal change in impact of HWs was evaluated through interaction effect between crossbasis function of HW and year in a two-stage time varying model. In order to pool the reduced coefficients of each period, multivariate meta-regression model, including city-specific temperature and temperature range as heterogenicity factors, was used. In addition to relative risk (RR), attributable fraction (AF) of HW in the two periods was also estimated in each city. In the last years, the frequency of all HWs was higher and the weak HWs were significantly longer. The only significant RR was related to the lowest and low severe HWs which was observed in the second period. In terms of AF, compared to the strong HWs, all weak HWs caused a considerable excess mortality in all cities and second period. The subgroup analysis revealed that the significant impact in the second period was mainly related to females and elderlies. The increased risk and AF due to more frequent and longer HWs (weak HWs) in the last years highlights the need for mitigation strategies in the region. Because of uncertainty in the results of severe HWs, further elaborately investigation of the HWs is need.

Risk factors of pulmonary arterial hypertension in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A meta-analysis.

To determine the risk factors of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) related to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) through systematic reviews and meta-analyses. We undertook electronic search strategies using Medline via PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library up to April 11, 2023. Study selection and data extraction were performed by 2 authors independently. We made risk of bias judgments based on the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Pooled risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to estimate the overall effect sizes of potential risk factors for PAH in SLE patients. Univariate and multivariate meta-regression models were used to assess the independent effects of each risk factor on PAH. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. A total of 19 articles were included in this meta-analysis, and the results showed that gender (female) [RR = 1.04, 95% CI (1.02, 1.06), p = .0001], interstitial lung disease [RR = 4.36, 95% CI (2.42, 7.85), p = .0001], alopecia [RR = 1.39, 95% CI (1.06, 1.83), p = .017], Raynaud's phenomenon [RR = 1.83, 95% CI (1.41, 2.37), p = .0001], systemic hypertension [RR = 1.30, 95% CI (1.07, 1.58), p = .007], serositis [RR = 2.29, 95% CI (1.89, 2.77), p = .0001], pericardial effusion [RR = 3.33, 95% CI (2.20, 5.05), p = .0001], anti-RNP [RR = 1.86, 95% CI (1.19, 2.91), p = .006], anti-SSA [RR = 1.28, 95% CI (1.01, 1.62), p = .041], anti-SSB [RR = 1.38, 95% CI (1.19, 1.60), p = .0001], anti-U1RNP [RR = 1.58, 95% CI (1.07, 2.34), p = .023], thrombocytopenia [RR = 1.38, 95% CI (1.14, 1.68), p = .001], and current smokers [RR = 2.20, 95% CI (1.19, 4.06), p = .012] were all risk factors for PAH related to SLE. PAH is a serious complication of SLE. Since prognosis of SLE patients after the occurrence of PAH is poor, routine examination should be conducted for SLE patients with PAH risk factors.

The associations of ambient fine particles with tuberculosis incidence and the modification effects of ambient temperature: A nationwide time-series study in China

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major air pollutant that poses significant risks to human health. However, little is known about the association of PM2.5 with tuberculosis (TB) incidence, and whether temperature modifies the association.This study aimed to explore the association between ambient PM2.5 exposure and TB incidence in China and the modification effects of temperature. Weekly meteorological data, PM2.5 concentrations, and TB incidence numbers were collected for 22 cities across Mainland China, from 2011 to 2020. A quasi-Poisson regression with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess city-specific PM2.5-TB associations. A multivariate meta-regression model was then used to pool the city-specific effect estimates, at the national and regional levels. A J-shaped PM2.5-TB relationship was observed at the national level for China. Compared to those with minimum PM2.5-TB risk, people who were exposed to the highest PM2.5 concentrations had a 26 % (RR:1.26, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.52) higher risk for TB incidence. J-shaped PM2.5-TB associations were also observed for most sub-groups, however, no significant modifying effects were found. While a trend was observed between low temperatures and increased exposure-response associations, these results were not significant. Overall, approximately 20 % of TB cases in the 22 study cities, over the period 2011–2020, could be attributed to PM2.5 exposure. Strengthening the monitoring and emission control of PM2.5 could aid the prevention and control of TB incidence.

The global estimate of premature cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of age-standardized mortality rate

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant cause of premature mortality worldwide, with a growing burden in recent years. Despite this, there is a lack of comprehensive meta-analyses that quantify the extent of premature CVD mortality. Study addressed this gap by estimating the pooled age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of premature CVD mortality.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of published CVD mortality studies that reported ASMR as an indicator for premature mortality measurement. All English articles published as of October 2022 were searched in four electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). We computed pooled estimates of ASMR using random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed heterogeneity from the selected studies using the I2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and meta regression analysis was performed based on sex, main CVD types, income country level, study time and age group. The analysis was performed using R software with the “meta” and “metafor” packages.ResultsA total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. The estimated global ASMR for premature mortality from total CVD was 96.04 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 67.18, 137.31). Subgroup analysis by specific CVD types revealed a higher ASMR for ischemic heart disease (ASMR = 15.57, 95% CI: 11.27, 21.5) compared to stroke (ASMR = 12.36, 95% CI: 8.09, 18.91). Sex-specific differences were also observed, with higher ASMRs for males (37.50, 95% CI: 23.69, 59.37) than females (15.75, 95% CI: 9.61, 25.81). Middle-income countries had a significantly higher ASMR (90.58, 95% CI: 56.40, 145.48) compared to high-income countries (21.42, 95% CI: 15.63, 29.37). Stratifying by age group indicated that the age groups of 20–64 years and 30–74 years had a higher ASMR than the age group of 0–74 years. Our multivariable meta-regression model suggested significant differences in the adjusted ASMR estimates for all covariates except study time.ConclusionsThis meta-analysis synthesized a comprehensive estimate of the worldwide burden of premature CVD mortality. Our findings underscore the continued burden of premature CVD mortality, particularly in middle-income countries. Addressing this issue requires targeted interventions to mitigate the high risk of premature CVD mortality in these vulnerable populations.

City-level meteorological conditions modify the relationships between exposure to multiple air pollutants and the risk of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Sichuan Basin, China.

Several studies have examined the effects of city-level meteorological conditions on the associations between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) risk. However, evidence that city-level meteorological conditions modify air pollutant-HFMD associations is lacking. For each of the 17 cities in the Sichuan Basin, we obtained estimates of the relationship between exposures to multiple air pollutants and childhood HFMD risk by using a unified distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Multivariate meta-regression models were used to identify the effects of city-level meteorological conditions as effect modifiers. Finally, we conducted subgroup analyses of age and sex to explore whether the modification effects varied in different subgroups. The associations between PM2.5/CO/O3 and HFMD risk showed moderate or substantial heterogeneity among cities ( statistics: 48.5%, 53.1%, and 61.1%). Temperature conditions significantly modified the PM2.5-HFMD association, while relative humidity and rainfall modified the O3-HFMD association. Low temperatures enhanced the protective effect of PM2.5 exposure against HFMD risk [PM2.5 <32.7 μg/m3 or PM2.5 >100 μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: relative risk (RR) = 0.14, 95% CI: 0.03-0.60]. Low relative humidity increased the adverse effect of O3 exposure on HFMD risk (O3 >128.7 μg/m3, at the 99th percentile: RR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.48-4.50). However, high rainfall decreased the risk of HFMD due to O3 exposure (O3: 14.1-41.4 μg/m3). In addition, the modification effects of temperature and relative humidity differed in the female and 3-5 years-old subgroups. Our findings revealed moderate or substantial heterogeneity in multiple air pollutant-HFMD relationships. Temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall modified the relationships between PM2.5 or O3 exposure and HFMD risk.

1220-P: Age Differences in the Effects of Multicomponent Periodontal Treatments on Oral and Metabolic Health among People with Diabetes Mellitus—A Meta-epidemiological Study

Objectives: To explore the age differences in the effect of multi-component periodontal treatment on oral and metabolic indicators in people with periodontitis and diabetes. Methods: Six databases (PubMed/Medline, Embase, CINHAL, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and ProQuest) were searched from database inception to August 2022. Trials reporting the effects of multi-component periodontal treatment on oral and metabolic indicators in people over 18 years old with periodontitis and diabetes were included. We used bivariate and multivariate meta-regression models to examine the association between age and treatment effect size. The primary outcomes were changes in pocket depth (PD), clinical attachment level (CAL), and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Results: A total 115 trials (119 articles) met the inclusion criteria. Pooled evidence demonstrated that multi-component periodontal treatment significantly reduced PD (g=0.929, 95% CI [0.689-1.169], I2=94.1%), CAL (g=0.879, 95% CI [0.669-1.089], I2=92.1%), and HbA1c (g=0.603, 95% CI [0.443-0.763], I2=87.5%). There was a significant decreasing trend in the effect size for PD (P for trend = 0.020) and CAL (P for trend = 0.028) as age increases. Results from multivariate meta-regression showed that age was associated with smaller effects of PD (β [standard error] = -0.123 [0.041], P=0.004) and CAL (-0.159 [0.055], P=0.006). The effect size for HbA1c was smaller in participants older than 55 years compared to their younger counterparts (-0.792 [0.322], P=0.017). Conclusions: The effect size of multi-component periodontal treatments on PD and CAL may decrease as people with periodontitis and diabetes age increases. The treatment effect on HbA1c is significantly lower in people older than 55 compared to their younger counterparts. The components of periodontal treatment should be adjusted to the individual’s periodontal and glycemic control levels. Disclosure Z.Zhu: None. X.Qi: None. Y.Zheng: None. Y.Pei: None. B.Wu: None. Funding National Institutes of Health (P30AG059304, P50MD017356)