Multi-regional Input-output Model Research Articles

Global Freight Transport Emissions Responsibility.

The transportation of freight by land, sea and air underpins the complex network of global trade in physical commodities. Greenhouse gas emissions from freight transportation are a significant component of global emissions and are predicted to grow in coming decades. However, the inclusion of freight transport in emissions accounts and environmental impact studies is often incomplete. Both data availability and difficulties in allocating freight emissions to specific commodity trades contributes to this. In this study, international freight movements by transport mode are estimated from the bottom-up by imputing global freight transport routes. Emissions are estimated from these freight movements and integrated with a global multiregional input-output model. This enables the calculation of carbon footprints that are complete with respect to freight emissions. We estimate that global freight transport emissions contributed 2.8 Gt CO2-equiv in 2012, or about 41% of total transport emissions. In general, freight footprints contribute about 9% to national emissions footprints. While trade in physical commodities (such as construction materials, food and fossil fuels) are associated with the largest embodied freight emissions, services (such as public administration, education and health) also require significant freight transport. Using a consumption-based allocation of freight transport emissions allows the decarbonisation of other sectors to be complementary to the decarbonisation of transport through reduction in demand, for example through material efficiency strategies. To drive decarbonisation in maritime transport it is critical to include bunker emissions in national emissions inventories, thereby completing the system boundary.

Enormous inter-country inequality of embodied carbon emissions and its driving forces in South America

South America is a crucial developing region under significant pressure to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. This study fills a vital gap by comprehensively analysing the continent’s carbon emissions from both production and consumption perspectives. Utilizing the most up-to-date global Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) models, we examine the emissions embodied in the internal and external trade of nine major South American countries, tracing the emission flows from their origins to final consumers and analyzing the socio-economic drivers behind these patterns. Our analysis reveals that regions bearing heavier burdens of energy-intensive production often face exacerbated economic disparities. Trade-related emissions are embodied in heavy industry and transportation, and the share of emissions attributable to developing countries is continuously climbing. Brazil is the sole net-exporter of emissions, while Colombia has become a significant net importer. Energy intensity offsets the increase in carbon emissions caused by per capita consumption, especially in Brazil. Meanwhile, Colombia experiences an increase in emissions due to its energy structure, whereas a general trend towards decreasing emissions is noted elsewhere. The impact of the industrial chain is mainly domestic and extends forward along the supply chain. Interestingly, the consumption structure reduces emissions in Argentina and Bolivia, but increases them in other countries. Key emission mitigation initiatives include Brazil enhancing its leadership in bioenergy, Chile intensifying the development of green industrial chains for high-emission sectors, and Uruguay advancing its wind energy projects to increase clean energy exports, etc. These measures could facilitate targeted and effective decarbonization while promoting equitable and sustainable economic development across South America.

The resilience and determinants of global mineral resource supply chains: a network percolation perspective

Mineral resources are the basic materials for global economic development. Assessing mineral resource supply chain resilience is an important pillar of mineral resource supply chain stability management. The globality, heterogeneity and complexity of supply chain bring challenges to the resilience assessment of global mineral resource supply chain. To solve this problem, a method based on multi-region input-output model, network percolation model and econometric model is proposed, which is able to measure the resilience of global mineral resource supply chain and its influencing factors from the perspective of the whole system. The percolation phase transition is introduced to measure the critical state of global mineral resource supply chain system collapse facing external disruption. Using the proposed method, this paper conducts an empirical study on the evolution of global mineral resource supply chain resilience from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the resilience of global mineral resource supply chain declined by 39.6% in 2005–2014. Most of the critical links that caused the collapse of the global mineral resource supply chain network are the manufacturing sector and its upstream and downstream sectors. The structure of supply chain network plays a key role in network resilience. Increasing the number of linkages in upstream and downstream could improve network resilience, but the increase of linkage strength would deteriorate network resilience.

Visualising trade-related virtual urban land transfers in China

ABSTRACT As a type of environmental footprint, the concept of virtual land captures the indirect land use embedded in our consumption and trade activities. Utilising the environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model (EEMRIO) and Kaleidoscope diagram, we visualise for the first time the interprovincial flow of virtual urban land in China. It unveils the intricate urban network connections and the telecoupled interactions between human activities and land use amidst China's rapid urbanisation phase. The results indicate that the eastern region of China emerges as the primary net beneficiary of virtual urban land, whereas the western region stands as the principal net contributor. The local urban land in 65% of the provinces suffices for their own consumption demands. However, provinces like Zhejiang, Henan, and Jiangsu rely heavily on inter-provincial urban land to fulfil their consumption requirements. Inter-regional trade plays a pivotal role in facilitating the flow of land resources, significantly easing the strain between human demands and land availability in the developed coastal provinces of eastern China. Yet, it imposes additional ecological pressure on the more ecologically vulnerable areas in the west. The insights from this research are poised to offer valuable guidance for the Chinese government in harmonising urban development strategies, industrial distribution and the allocation of construction land on a national scale.

EXIOBASE energy accounts: Improving precision in an open‐sourced procedure applicable to any MRIO database

AbstractAs environmentally extended input–output tables are increasingly used for footprint and supply chain analysis, there has been a growing demand for precise, reliable, and intertemporally consistent environmental accounts. Energy accounts are particularly relevant. As well as providing insights into embodied energy, in the case of the multi‐regional input–output (MRIO) database EXIOBASE, they are the basis of the air emissions from fuel combustion. In this study we review previous methods and provide a more integrated and robust implementation for the EXIOBASE energy accounts that ensures higher levels of consistency between economic and physical data. Our results show that the new procedure significantly improves the precision of the energy use coefficients and multipliers, while reducing the number of outliers. The procedure is made publicly available for full transparency and made open source such that users and developers may raise issues and suggest improvements to the procedure. Furthermore, the procedure is standardized so it can be applied to any MRIO model with only minor adjustments to the input data.

Examining global biodiversity accounts: Implications of aggregating characterization factors from elementary flows in multi‐regional input–output analysis

AbstractExtending multi‐regional input–output (MRIO) models with spatially explicit life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models allows practitioners to quantify biodiversity impacts at every step of global supply chains. Inconsistencies may be introduced, however, when high‐resolution characterization factors (CFs) are aggregated so as to match the low spatial granularity of MRIO models. These aggregation errors are greater when CFs are aggregated via proxies, such as ecoregion land shares, instead of based on spatially explicit elementary stressor flows. Here, we describe our approach to tailoring application‐specific CFs for use in MRIO studies. We apply a global agricultural production model, Spatial Production Allocation Model (MapSPAM), with the LCIA database, LC‐IMPACT, to create crop‐specific national CFs. We investigated i) if the differing aggregation approaches and the increased spatial explicitness of the constructed CFs deviate substantially from those in LC‐IMPACT, and ii) what the resulting consequences for national production and consumption‐based biodiversity footprints are when combining the tailor‐made CFs with the EXIOBASE MRIO model. For the year 2020, we observe an increase in global production‐based biodiversity impacts of 23.5% for land use when employing crop‐specific CFs.

Ecological unequal exchange: Evidence from imbalanced cropland soil erosion and agricultural value-added embodied in global agricultural trade

The cropland soil erosion (CSE), a major driver of land degradation and water pollution, is directly caused by agricultural production processes driven by food demand in a globalized food market. However, it is essential to determine what role global trade and agricultural value chains play in regional CSE, especially when imbalanced erosion is embodied in global agricultural trade. In this study, the Revised Universal Soil and Water Loss Equation and the Environment Expanded Multi Region Input-Output Model were used to quantify the global distribution of CSE and the value added in global agricultural value chains to identify trade imbalances. We introduce the Local Environmental Coefficient, the Regional Environmental Coefficient, and the Agricultural Trade Environment Inequality (AEI) index, which were used to analyze the overall and bilateral inequalities in agricultural trade among the world’s regions. The results showed that 34.65 % of the global CSE was embodied in international trade, whereas the ratio of the value added was 30.80 %. The global trade in agricultural products is generally unbalanced, as indicated by the AEI index of developed regions such as Norway and Japan, which is more than 30 times higher than that of regions such as China and Brazil, and more than 20 times higher than the global average. In terms of bilateral trade, China, the United States, and Brazil face more prominent imbalances in their international trade. Major agricultural producers generally bear more environmental costs with less value-added benefits in trade. This study quantifies, for the first time, the implied imbalances of CSE transfer in agricultural trade. Global ecological governance thus requires accountability from all regions, especially in an era of increasing globalization of agricultural trade. Timely adoption of ecological compensation and technology transfer for both large agricultural producers and less-developed regions are key to achieving sustainable global agricultural production.

Hybrid multi-stage steel footprinting unveils a more interdependent material foundation of the global economy

Steel is foundational to modern society, yet tracking its socio-economic metabolism is challenging due to the complex global trade networks. Traditional indicators, such as domestic material consumption (DMC) and consumption-based material footprints (MF), typically focus on metal ore extraction, overlooking the multiple stages of steel production and consumption. To address this, we integrate multi-national anthropogenic steel cycles and international trade networks of steel-containing products into a global monetary multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. We construct material efficiency indicators based on footprints of iron ores, crude steel, castings, finished steel, and fabricated steel products, comparing them with conventional economy-wide material flow indicators like domestic material production (DMP) and DMC. Our findings reveal that per capita multi-stage MF indicators exhibit more robust log-linear relationships with per capita GDP with an average R2 value of 0.72 compared to 0.10 and 0.18 for DMP and DMC. Shares of Embodied trade in total global production exceed direct trade by 24 percentage points on average, emphasizing the significance of international embodied metal transfers. Using multi-stage MF indicators also reduces disparities in material efficiency between developed and developing countries. This study unravels the intricacies of global steel supply chains and the true interdependencies of steel-containing products among countries.

Fighting Alone or Mutual Benefit and Win? A Study on Forestry Embodied Energy Competition Network Based on MRIO

Abstract Measuring energy usage in the forestry trade is a topic of great significance. In this article, we use the World Input–Output Database and the multiregional input–output model to establish an embodied energy competition network and assess the influence of global value chain (GVC) integration on competition. The results show that (1) the intensity of competition for embodied energy in forestry is higher for exports compared with imports. Additionally, the import competition network exhibits lower connectivity and overall efficiency. (2) The core regions of the competitive network are primarily found in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. The United States consistently maintains a competitive advantage. However, forestry policies have led to a decline in the status of the United States, (3) The hierarchical structure of export competition is more pronounced. When the weighting degree exceeds 200, this phenomenon becomes more pronounced. (4) From the perspective of GVC, positive embedding in the GVC is negatively correlated with import competition. Backward GVC embedding is positively correlated with import and export competition. On the basis of the above results, this article proposes that countries where backward embedding is the main method should actively participate in building appropriate export international associations, participating in international organizations, and building a relatively harmonious and stable export competition market, thereby helping to maintain economic development and energy environment management.

Global supply chain drivers of water use in Sub-Saharan Africa: Taking Ghana as a case

Local water use is significantly affected by distant economies through global supply chains. Ghana is one of the largest trade hubs in sub-Saharan Africa, and large amounts of Ghana's water use are embodied in international exports. Previous studies have made efforts to evaluate direct water use in Ghana but overlooked nations and sectors indirectly driving Ghana's water use. This study explored global supply chain drivers of Ghana's water use during 2012–2021, based on the global environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EE-MRIO) model. Results revealed that the total water use of Ghana was 9790 million m3 (Mm3) during this period. About 39% of Ghana's water use is attributed to foreign consumption and more than 12% is driven by the US and the UK. The domestic and foreign demand for the products of the “spices and pharmaceutical crops” sector is an important sectoral driver of Ghana's water use. From the supply side, domestic primary inputs account for 93.1% of the national water use whereas only 6.9% is attributed to foreign primary inputs. The domestic sectoral suppliers are mainly the “spices, and pharmaceutical crops” and “wholesale and retail trade” sectors. The critical foreign nations from the supply side are China and Cote d’Ivoire, enabling 88.5 Mm3 and 59.0 Mm3 of Ghana's water use respectively. Demand-side initiatives (i.e., consumer tax and education) and supply-side measures (i.e., efficient water use compliance) should be integrated with existing production-side policies to regulate sub-Saharan Africa's water use.

The green trade benefits and horizontal ecological compensation from the perspective of embodied carbon emissions: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China

The horizontal ecological compensation plays an important role in balancing the interests of all parties and coordinating regional development in the basin. However, the mechanism of ecological compensation based on embodied carbon emissions is still poorly understood. Here, taking the Yellow River Basin as the research area, we use the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to measure the embodied carbon transfers between its seven urban agglomerations in 2012 and 2017 from the viewpoint of value-added trade benefits. Further, for the first time, the green trade benefits and ecological compensation amounts are analyzed. The results indicate that: (1) The transfer of trade-embodied carbon among the urban agglomerations in the basin showed obvious spatial heterogeneity and geographic proximity effects, and trade-embodied carbon outflows (inflows) had a pattern of "highest in the midstream, second in the downstream, and lowest in the upstream". (2) The industry composition of the urban agglomerations in relation to embodied carbon outflows (inflows) was similar, mainly in the service and heavy manufacturing industries. (3) The spatial pattern of green trade benefits in the basin had shifted from "high in the north and low in the surrounding area" to "high in the east-central part and low in the west". (4) The pattern of ecological compensation in the basin had shifted from the upstream surplus, the middle and downstream deficit to the midstream deficit, and the upstream and downstream surplus. Therefore, we recommend improving energy structures in high-demand urban agglomerations by adopting clean energy, focusing on decarbonization and energy efficiency in resource-rich regions. Additionally, promoting low-carbon economies, especially in the service and heavy manufacturing industries, implementing differentiated emission reduction strategies, and optimizing carbon compensation mechanisms considering regional disparities and resource endowments are crucial. It is expected that the study can enrich the scientific basis of horizontal ecological compensation and increase the fairness of regional carbon emission rights allocation.

Research on provincial implied carbon emissions in China under the shared responsibility driven by new quality productivity: A new approach

The allocation of responsibility for carbon emissions among involved parties has garnered significant attention. This study proposes a comprehensive sharing coefficient methodology known as CVAT (direct carbon emissions, value added, and technology level) to enhance the accuracy and equity of responsibility sharing driven by the new productivity standard. This study utilizes the environmental expansion multi-region input-output (EEMRIO) model to assess China's implicit provincial carbon emissions over the previous two decades. The study investigates the characteristics of the implied carbon transfer network using social network analysis (SNA) techniques. Key findings include: (1) The CVAT method's determination of responsibility sharing coefficients aligns with fairness and efficiency principles, resulting in a more equitable distribution of implied carbon emission responsibilities conducive to achieving fair carbon emission reduction. (2) Over the research period, national implied carbon emissions exhibited an upward trajectory, increasing from 3.305 billion tons in 2002 to 9.726 billion tons in 2017, with Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu provinces ranking among the top emitters in China. (3) Eastern coastal and western regions function as net carbon transfer out regions, while the central, northeast, and southwest regions act as net carbon transfer in regions. (4) The implied carbon transfer network demonstrated relative stability throughout the study period, with Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia emerging as major carbon transfer provinces. The study's outcomes hold significant implications for the impartial and accurate assessment of carbon emission responsibilities and the advancement of global carbon emission reduction efforts.

Spatially explicit analysis of production and consumption responsibility for the PM2.5-related health burden towards beautiful China

Promoting good health and ensuring responsible production and consumption are essential components of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) established by of the United Nations, as well as the goals of beautiful China. While the health impacts of air pollution have garnered significant attention, there remains a paucity of studies comparing the disparities in responsibility arising from production versus consumption. This paper integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting - Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (WRF-CAMx) model, the multiregional input‒output (MRIO) model, and the global exposure mortality model (GEMM) to assess the extent of PM2.5-related premature deaths caused by production and consumption activities in 30 Chinese provinces. The findings reveal a spatial mismatch in health burdens between production and consumption. Considering pollutant emissions and their transfer only through the supply chain leads to the finding that the net outflow of emissions from producers is mainly located in most of the northern provinces of China. However, when atmospheric transport and health impacts are included, the producing provinces are mainly located in central China, while the consuming provinces are located in the southeastern coastal and remote western and northern regions. Additionally, the long-range impact of consumption provinces with respect to the health burden is more than twice as large as that of production provinces, and its potential impact on the health burden cannot be ignored. From a sectoral perspective, production emissions from the non-electricity industry and services sectors contribute to 60% of the health burden, while their consumption emissions contribute to over 80% of the health burden. Furthermore, consumption activities in the non-electricity industry and services sectors significantly influence production emissions in the transport, agriculture, and electricity sectors. The geographical separation of consumption and production regions facilitated by trade is a critical yet often overlooked aspect in current regional air quality planning in China. A more comprehensive analysis of life-cycle emissions driven by final consumption could yield greater reductions compared to direct production reductions.

Cross-scale characteristics and emission reduction pathways of trade-embodied carbon flows in the global supply Chains

In the context of the 1.5 °C warming target, there is a growing awareness of the increasingly frequent carbon flows between subregions. However, understanding the characteristics and pathways of cross-scale carbon flows between subregions and regions remains elusive and impedes achieving emission reduction targets. This study employs a nested multi-regional input–output model and the structural path analysis method, establishing the characteristics of the carbon emission transfer network within global supply chains and discerning the crucial structural pathways and nodes for carbon emissions. The study found that (1) in 36 major countries, the embodied carbon flows are predominantly influenced by the developed countries around China in Asia and the Pacific. (2) In 30 subregions, coastal subregions with large-scale foreign trade and energy-intensive subregions in China's central and western parts contribute significantly to the larger embodied carbon outflow due to exports. (3) “Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (S09) → construction (S19)” and “manufacture and processing of metals (S10) → construction (S19)” are the two key pathways of paramount significance of embodied carbon emissions. (4) “R25 South Korea” has the highest number of key pathways and the greatest embodied carbon emissions from critical paths, followed by “R27 India” and “R22 United States.” These findings offer valuable insights for the development of regional emission reduction policies.

Textile offshoring along global value chains (GVCs): Impacts on employment and gender wage gaps

Globalization has a significant impact on the international distribution of production, which in turn affects the global distribution of employment and income. Yet, previous studies have often overlooked the gender implications associated with the evolution of global value chains (GVCs). In this context, the textile sector is considered critical for explaining the most recent trends in female employment, particularly in developing countries.The main objective of this paper is to examine the impacts of textile offshoring on female participation in the labor market and on gender employment and wage gaps between 1991 and 2019. Specifically, it aims to understand prior premises as the expected increase in female workers due to the delocalization of the sector, the implications of these premises when countries begin to upgrade and their role in reducing gender inequalities.To achieve this, we devised a multi-sectoral and multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model with a high level of disaggregation of 189 countries and 26 sectors, expanded to include male and female jobs and wages by sector and country. We also conducted a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) on the forces driving the evolution of gender gaps.Our findings show that the gender employment gap grew in the global textile sector between 1991 and 2019, caused primarily by the role played by China and India in the textile supply chain. Gender wage gaps continue to linger, however, despite having narrowed in most of the countries analyzed.

Research on the correlation network of carbon emissions and economic between Chinese urban agglomerations

Urban agglomerations are currently at the center of China's efforts to reduce carbon emission and sustainable economic development. It is critical to investigate the carbon emissions and economic correlation between urban agglomerations in order to assist their carbon emission reduction and economic coordinated development. This paper is based on an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model, and studies the embodied carbon emissions and economic two-dimensional correlation network between major urban agglomerations in China from 2012 to 2017. The research results indicate that the production-based carbon emissions of the production and supply of electricity and heat industry in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were higher than the consumption-based carbon emissions, with a significant gap. However, the construction and service industries were the opposite. The Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration experienced carbon emission losses and economic benefits. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration achieved a win-win situation for carbon emissions and economy. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration benefited from carbon emissions but suffered economic losses. The Central Plains urban agglomeration faced a loss-loss situation for carbon emissions and economy. Major urban agglomerations in China should implement differentiated emission reduction measures based on their own characteristics. For example, the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration should utilize natural resources to develop green industries and high value added industries.

Impacts of automated trucks on U.S. freight movements: application and enhancement of the random-utility-based multiregional input-output model

ABSTRACT Fully automated trucks (ATrucks) will impact the US freight flow patterns, due to time and cost savings compared to human-driven trucks (HTrucks). This paper advances the random-utility-multiregional input-output (RUBMRIO) model to have explicit mode’s commodity-pricing impacts and predicts impacts of ATrucks on freight mode and origin choices across 20 commodity sectors across US. Assuming ATrucks’ operating cost to be 60% of that for HTrucks, results suggest that time and cost savings from the use of ATrucks not only accommodate the need to acquire high-value goods from more closer locations but also facilitates the transportation of goods with the same value from farther away. HTrucks’ shares diminish as distance rises, with ATrucks’ mode share in transported value fairly stable (at 50% across all distances). Rail’s share is minimal for shorter distances but rises to approximately 20% for trips longer than 250 miles. Overnight-travel time savings raise the total value and ton-miles of goods transported by ATrucks, peaking at an increase of 11% for trips between 500 and 750 miles. ATrucks transport three times the ton-miles of HTrucks with an 80% cost reduction and still double the ton-mileswith a 40% increased cost, thanks to time savings.

Allocation of carbon emission responsibility among Chinese cities guided by economic welfare gains: Case study based on multi-regional input-output analysis

Ensuring equitable allocation of carbon emission responsibilities at the city level is crucial for effectively mitigating climate change. However, traditional allocation methods like production-based accounting (PBA) and consumption-based accounting (CBA) encounter double-counting problems at this scale. This study for the first time addressed the ignored externality of carbon emissions among bilateral trading partners at city scale, achieving equitable carbon emission responsibility reallocations using the economic welfare gain-based (EWG) method. Examining 313 cities in China using a multi-regional input-output model, the highest carbon emission responsibilities are identified in Baotou at 400.7 Mt., followed by Yunnan (189.9 Mt) and Dalian (166.7 Mt). In this case, the EWG method reallocates producer and consumer responsibilities in bilateral trades. Among the 313 cities, emission responsibilities from 198 are situated between PBA and CBA, avoiding one-sided assignment of emissions based solely on either principle. A comparative analysis of allocation methods in China further indicates a predominance of production responsibility, mirroring a similar trend between EWG and PBA; a significant portion of producer responsibilities are identified within EWG. The results of this work may offer a fairer and economically sound basis for allocating emission responsibilities among cities, thereby facilitating more effective emission reduction strategies.

Household welfare loss from energy price crisis: Evidence from China

The war in Ukraine and associated 2022 energy crisis had far-reaching effects. The energy price crisis causes varying degrees of households' welfare losses by directly increasing energy prices and indirectly increasing product costs along the supply chain. This impact is particular significant for developing countries and emerging economies with a large concentration of middle and low-income groups. In this study, we utilize a multiregional input-output (MRIO) model and micro-household consumption spending figures to simulate the effects of rising fuel costs, both directly and indirectly, on 24 expenditure segments in China. According to the energy prices schema, we find increased energy burdens deteriorate household welfare. In a dire scenario of a 50% increase in energy prices, 11.35% of households will fall into energy poverty because of a disproportionately high share of visible energy consumption, raising China's energy poverty rate from 11.61% to 22.96%. Residual impacts are passed on to households by raising the cost of producing goods, resulting in higher indirect energy consumption, and ultimately leading to a significant increase in the inequality of households' real incomes excluding energy consumption. Further analysis shows that it is more cost-effective to provide subsidies to relatively poor households for the consumption of various commodities, with subsidies for food, healthcare and medical services, and housing expenses being the most effective, than direct subsidization of energy prices by the government to reduce household welfare losses. The major findings of this study emphasize the impact of energy security challenges in household sector, that helps to assess the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on energy securities of emerging economies.

Multi-dimensional equilibrium optimal allocation of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region through spatial association network analysis

The rapid social and economic development has led to problems such as over-exploitation of water resources, strong demand for physical water resources, and disequilibrium of water resources load. Based on the current situation of the water resources system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this study proposed an input–output analysis-assessment-prediction-optimization framework. A water resources dissipation environment extended multi-regional input–output model was established, and the spatial equilibrium of water resources load was evaluated comprehensively. Furthermore, a multi-dimensional spatial equilibrium optimal allocation for water resources was built to identify key nodes and sectors. The primary findings were as follows: (1) Shijiazhuang and Tangshan were the main cities with net virtual water outflow, while Beijing and Baoding were the primary recipients of net virtual water inflow; (2) The overall score for the spatial equilibrium assessment of water resource load was low, with dimension scores predominantly ranging between 0.2 and 0.6; (3) The key transfer nodes were predominantly concentrated on the “outflow from Shijiazhuang” and the “inflow to Cangzhou and Langfang” nodes. This research conducted an in-depth exploration of the direction of water resource transfers, the actual stress conditions, and the spatial equilibrium of water resources within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Finally, the future adjustment strategy for water-intensive industries at the urban agglomeration scale was obtained.