Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network Research Articles

Artificial intelligence for herbicide recommendation: case study for the use of clomazone in Brazilian soils

The use of herbicides has been carried out without considering the physical and chemical properties of the soil and its variation in the different producing regions. Its interaction is dependent on the properties of the soil and the herbicide itself and, therefore, is considered complex. An alternative to optimize the use of herbicides is the application of mathematical models to estimate the sorption in the soil, contributing to a more efficient control of weeds and bringing more environmental safety. In this study, the efficiency of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was evaluated as a tool to predict clomazone sorption in different Brazilian soils. The herbicide sorption coefficients were determined in the laboratory with 45 soils from different soil environments. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) ANN models were used to predict clomazone sorption. The variables were selected using the feature selection tool using the physical and chemical properties of the soils. Multivariate statistics were performed to determine the correlations between the physical and chemical properties of the soil with the sorption coefficient. Potassium (K), phosphorus (P), magnesium (Mg), organic matter (OM), silt, clay, and cation exchange capacity (CEC) were the ANN inputs and the sorption coefficient (Kfs) the output. The general performance of the model was evaluated by its precision and error values, namely: coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute relative error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean estimation error (MBE), and the coefficient Pearson correlation test (r). The ANN models were able to predict the Kfs of clomazone in the studied soils. The input variables that determined the best performing network for Kfs prediction were: CTC, Silt, Mg, and K. The variables that showed greater relative importance in the sensitivity analysis in the construction of the model for the Kfs of clomazone were: K (37%) and Silt (29%). The best RNA model was able to recommend reducing the dose of clomazone compared to the commercial package insert method.

Meteorological and satellite-based data for drought prediction using data-driven model

This work presents a data-driven model, the Artificial Neural Network-Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (ANN-MLP), for use in meteorological drought deciles index (DDI) predictions over various climatic sub-zone. Two types of rainfall data from meteorological weather stations (WSs) and satellite-based estimates of PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network) were adopted. This work considered the calculated DDI (DDI original) from WSs to train and develop the proposed algorithm at three sub-zones (ANN-MLP-DDI models). The newly developed model was tested for DDI prediction using PERSIANN, and compared with the calculated DDI original from WSs. The results positively revealed that the ANN-MLP-DDI models showed high performance (Correlation coefficient r= 0.981) for DDI prediction against the DDI original from WSs. It can be concluded that data-driven models are feasible for drought prediction, and this work could help water managers in mitigating drought impacts and in providing information for policy makers

Groundwater Nitrate Modeling in Tehran Metropolis Using Artificial Neural Network and Kriging Methods

This study examined the relationship between groundwater quality and land use in Tehran. For this purpose, the possible relationship between the types of land uses and the concentration of nitrate in groundwater parameters was modelled using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network in geographic information system (GIS). The optimal network model was selected based on the mean root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient. Interpolation through Kriging was also performed to compare its results with those of the predicted model derived from an artificial neural network. The results showed that the neural network has a high capability for predicting and modelling groundwater nitrate concentration compared to the Kriging method. The high accuracy (RMSE: 0.003) of the neural network makes it a useful tool in relevant management issues. Our results of network sensitivity analysis were similar to scientific findings regarding the factors influencing the formation of nitrate in groundwater. Model outputs in the form of maps, tables, and graphs allowed the study of the role of each variable and the extent of its impact on groundwater quality. Performing various simulations and modelling of groundwater pollution provides an effective benchmark towards optimizing the management, control, planning, and decision-making in urban areas and can lead to economic and environmental savings.

Groundwater Nitrate Modeling in Tehran Metropolis Using Artificial Neural Network and Kriging Methods

This study examined the relationship between groundwater quality and land use in Tehran. For this purpose, the possible relationship between the types of land uses and the concentration of nitrate in groundwater parameters was modelled using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network in geographic information system (GIS). The optimal network model was selected based on the mean root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient. Interpolation through Kriging was also performed to compare its results with those of the predicted model derived from an artificial neural network. The results showed that the neural network has a high capability for predicting and modelling groundwater nitrate concentration compared to the Kriging method. The high accuracy (RMSE: 0.003) of the neural network makes it a useful tool in relevant management issues. Our results of network sensitivity analysis were similar to scientific findings regarding the factors influencing the formation of nitrate in groundwater. Model outputs in the form of maps, tables, and graphs allowed the study of the role of each variable and the extent of its impact on groundwater quality. Performing various simulations and modelling of groundwater pollution provides an effective benchmark towards optimizing the management, control, planning, and decision-making in urban areas and can lead to economic and environmental savings.

Accurate modeling of crude oil and brine interfacial tension via robust machine learning approaches

Interfacial tension (IFT) between water and crude oil is a crucial variable that enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques can adjust to increase oil extraction from depleted fields. Most of the developed intelligent models in the literature are based on synthetic oil samples rather than real crude oil samples or brine total salinity rather than salinity of each salt type. Hence, this study applies various machine learning approaches, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Ensemble Learning, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks (MLP-ANN) to develop advanced models for predicting the IFT between brine and crude oil considering real crude oil samples and taking the account of each salt type prevalent within the brine phase, which represent the realistic circumstances encountered in the oil reservoirs. These predictions are based on factors like the type and concentration of salt, the API of the crude oil, and the properties of the system (pressure and temperature) using previously published experimental data. A sensitivity analysis, incorporating a relevancy factor, is performed to highlight the influence of various input parameters on the IFT. Among these models, the Decision Tree is highlighted for its high accuracy and low training cost compared to ANN-based models, as evidenced by its emerged evaluation metrics (R-squared of 0.9796 and mean square error of 5e-4). It is noted that the AdaBoost model is the least accurate with an R2 of 0.6696. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis indicates that the molecular weight of the salt has the smallest impact on the IFT, whereas temperature has the most significant effect. The developed smart model may be used to accurately estimate crude oil/brine IFT without needing tedious, time-consuming and expensive experimental workflows.

Experimental and machine learning insights on heat transfer and friction factor analysis of novel hybrid nanofluids subjected to constant heat flux at various mixture ratios

This study explores the combined effects of aluminum oxide (Al₂O₃)/graphene oxide (GO) hybrid nanofluids in 50:50 and 80:20 ratios, offering a notable improvement over conventional Al₂O₃ or GO nanofluids. It delivers a thorough comparison of thermophysical properties such as thermal conductivity and viscosity and heat transfer performance across water, Al₂O₃ nanofluids, and the Al₂O₃/GO hybrids. Nanofluids at 0.1–0.5 % volume concentrations were tested in a horizontal circular pipe under constant heat flux and turbulent flow with an inlet temperature of 60 °C. The maximum Nu enhancements of 64, 56 and 41 % were noted for Al₂O₃/GO (50:50), Al₂O₃/GO (80:20), and Al₂O₃ nanofluids, respectively at 0.5 vol%, compared to water. The maximum pressure drop of Al2O3/GO (50:50) nanofluid is 5.64 and 8.3 % greater than that of Al2O3/GO (80:20) and Al2O3 nanofluid, respectively at 0.5 vol%. The peak thermal performance index of 1.56, 1.48, and 1.33 is observed for Al₂O₃/GO (50:50), Al₂O₃/GO (80:20), and Al₂O₃ nanofluids. The integration of a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network further enhances accuracy in predicting thermal performance, surpassing the precision of conventional empirical models. The adopted model showed excellent predictive accuracy, with correlation coefficients of 0.98493 in training, 0.9837 in validation, and 0.98698 in testing.

Advancing Geotechnical Evaluation of Wellbores: A Robust and Precise Model for Predicting Uniaxial Compressive Strength (UCS) of Rocks in Oil and Gas Wells

This study examines the efficacy of various machine learning models for predicting the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of rocks in oil and gas wells, which are essential for ensuring wellbore stability and optimizing drilling operations. The investigation encompasses Linear Regression, ensemble methods (including Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and LightGBM), support vector machine-based regression (SVM-SVR), and multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN) models. The results demonstrate that XGBoost and Gradient Boosting offer superior predictive accuracy for UCS in drillability, as indicated by low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 3.87% and 4.18%, respectively, and high R2 scores (0.8542 for XGBoost). These models emerge as optimal choices for UCS prediction focused on drillability, offering increased accuracy and reliability in practical engineering scenarios. Ensemble methods and MLP-ANN emerge as frontrunners, providing valuable tools for improving wellbore stability assessments, optimizing drilling parameter selection, and facilitating informed decision-making processes in oil and gas drilling operations. Moreover, this study lays a foundation for further research in drillability-centred predictive modelling for geotechnical parameters, advancing our understanding of rock behaviour under drilling conditions.

Stock Market Forecasting Using a Neural Network Through Fundamental Indicators, Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment Analysis

AbstractThe objective of this research is to provide evidence that it is possible to obtain a prediction that better aligns with the future performance of a stock if a neural network model is trained with stock market analysis variables and qualitative variables. As a case study, thirty-three companies’ representative of the S&P 500 are selected, and a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network is built and trained with input parameter indicators of fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and market sentiment. By incorporating the latter as an additional variable, the model's accuracy increases by 1.5% for 66% of the companies analyzed. The results confirm the crucial role played by the selection of the neural network model and its variables depending on the type of company to be analyzed. The main contributions of this research are the identification of the best variables combination to train a neural network model depending on the market sector to be analyzed, likewise it is demonstrated that, by using market sentiment, it is possible obtain a high accuracy or increase the accuracy to an existing model.

Optimisation of Flexible Forming Processes Using Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms: A Generalised Approach for Advanced High-Strength Steels.

Flexibility is crucial in forming processes as it allows the production of different product shapes without changing equipment or tooling. Single-point incremental forming (SPIF) provides this flexibility, but often results in excessive sheet metal thinning. To solve this problem, a pre-forming phase can be introduced to ensure a more uniform thickness distribution. This study represents advances in this field by developing a generalised approach that uses a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP ANN) to predict thinning results from the input parameters and employs a genetic algorithm (GA) to optimise these parameters. This study specifically addresses advanced high-strength steels (AHSSs) and provides insights into their formability and the optimisation of the forming process. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in minimising sheet metal thinning and represent a significant advance in flexible forming technologies applicable to a wide range of materials and industrial applications.

Thermal and rheological behavior of aluminium-doped zinc oxide nanofluids: Experimental study and application of artificial neural network model

In this study, the influence of Al-doping concentration on the thermal and rheological characteristics of pristine zinc oxide (ZnO) nanofluids was investigated across a range of temperatures and nanoparticle concentrations. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) with an optimized topology was employed to model the thermal conductivity and viscosity of nanofluids. The addition of 0.13 M of Al-doped zinc oxide nanoparticles at 1 % rate led to a remarkable 64 % increase in the thermal conductivity of the base fluid (50:50 ratio water + ethylene glycol mixture). Furthermore, incorporating 1 % of these Al-doped nanoparticles outperformed pure zinc oxide, resulting in a 44 % boost in thermal conductivity. The enhanced heat transfer capabilities of Al-doped zinc oxide were evident across different doping and nanoparticle concentrations. The viscosity of nanofluids increases with an increase in nanoparticle concentration and decreases with an increase in temperature. ZnO and Al-doped ZnO nanoparticles have been prepared and studied their structural, morphological and elemental properties using XRD, SEM and EDS respectively. The predicted thermal and rheological behaviours are in close agreement with the experimental values.

MODEL OF MAXIMAL WEIGHTS INVERSE CHAINS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE FACTORS OF THE SOFTWARE COMPLEXES SUPPORT

Context. The problem of identification, formation and restoration of the boundaries of influencing factors, lost as a result of the implementation of multi-layer perceptron models into the models of subjective perception of the object of software complexes support, as well as the applied practical problem of primary monitoring of the frequency manifestation of a given influencing factor in the post-real-time mode, is considered. The object of research is the influencing factors of support of software complexes. Objective – the goal of the work is to develop a model of inverse chains of maximum weights for the analysis of influencing factors of the software complexes support. Method. A model of maximal weights inverse chains for the analysis of the influence factors of the software complexes support was developed for the analysis of the influencing factors of the software complexes support. The developed model provides possibility to identify and form feedback chains of maximum weights for the identification and further analysis of influencing factors that are reflected into the results of the object perception (the supported software complex or its support processes), by the relevant subjects of interaction which directly or indirectly interact with it. Results. Results of the resolved applied practical problem of primary monitoring of the frequency manifestation of a given influencing factor in the post-real-time mode have been provided as an example of the applied practical use of the developed model. The output results of the developed models functioning – are the reverse chains of maximum weights. In the future, the results obtained by the developed model are used to solve the applied-scientific problem of identification, formation and restoration of the boundaries of influencing factors, lost as a result of the implementation of the appropriate models of multilayer perceptron inside the models of subjective perception of the software complexes support. So the developed model of maximal weights inverse chains for the analysis of the influence factors of the software complexes support resolves this applied-scientific problem, initially caused by the implementation of the corresponding multilayer perceptron models inside the model of the subjective perception of the object of software complexessupport. The developed model provides the possibility of carrying out a qualitative analysis of the transformation of the input characteristics of the object of support into the output resulting characteristics of its subjective perception. Conclusions. Developed model allows to resolve the described problems. At the same time, the developed model improves the classical understanding of multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks, as it introduces an additional value to the neurons of hidden layers, which (starting from now) are able to perform a completely new role of influencing factors markers, while in the classical understanding of multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks they did not perform any functions other than arithmetic to ensure the possibility of correct learning and functioning of a multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks.

Predicting biohydrogen production from dark fermentation of organic waste biomass using multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP–ANN)

The focus on sustainable energy has increased interest in biohydrogen production through dark fermentation of organic waste biomass, offering dual benefits of energy production and waste management. Optimizing this process is challenging due to complex interactions among substrate composition, microbial consortia, and fermentation parameters. A multilayer perceptron artificial neural network model was developed to predict biohydrogen yield from organic waste. The model, trained on 180 data points from 35 studies, uses inputs, such as substrate type, inoculum type, concentration, pH, and temperature, with hydrogen yield as the output. The multilayer perceptron artificial neural network model achieved high accuracy, with a root mean square error of 0.3838, a mean absolute percentage error of 0.1938, and a coefficient of determination of 0.8381. These results demonstrate the model's effectiveness in predicting biohydrogen production, providing a valuable tool for optimizing the fermentation process and advancing sustainable energy solutions.

Multivariate Modelling Based on Isotopic, Elemental, and Fatty Acid Profiles to Distinguish the Backyard and Barn Eggs.

The ability to trace the origin of eggs from backyard-raised hens is important due to their higher market value compared to barn-raised eggs. This study aimed to differentiate eggs from these two rearing systems using isotopic, elemental, and fatty acid profiles of egg yolks. A total of 90 egg yolk samples were analyzed, analytical results being followed by statistical tests (Student's t-test) showing significant differences in δ18O, several elements (Mg, K, Sc, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Ba, Pb), and fatty acids compositions (C23:0, C17:0, C18:0, C16:1n7, C18:1n9, C18:2n6, C20:1n7, C20:4n6, C20:5n3, C22:6n3), as well as in the ratios of SFA, PUFA, and UFA. The results indicated a nutritional advantage in backyard eggs due to their lower n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid content and a more favorable n-6 to n-3 ratio, linked to differences in the hens' diet and rearing systems. To classify the production system (backyard vs. barn), three pattern recognition methods were applied: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), and multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANN). LDA provided perfect initial separation, achieving 98.9% accuracy in cross-validation. k-NN yielded classification rates of 98.4% for the training set and 85.7% for the test set, while MLP-ANN achieved 100% accuracy in training and 92.3% in testing, with minor misclassification. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of fusion among isotopic, elemental, and fatty acid profiles in distinguishing backyard eggs from barn eggs and highlight the nutritional benefits of the backyard-rearing system.

Prediction and Simulation for Land Use and Land Cover Change of Paddy Field Influence by Salinization in Coastal Demak Regency

The extent of coastal rice paddy agricultural land is vulnerable to land use and land cover (LULC) changes to non-agricultural uses due to land degradation, one of which is caused by salinity. This study aims to detect and project LULC changes up to 2031, particularly in coastal rice paddy areas affected by salinity, by comparing LULC in 2017, 2019, and 2021. Sentinel-2 Imagery is used for LULC classification, with recordings selected during the generative phase of rice growth to obtain the most optimal rice paddy area. There are six LULC classifications: water, wetland, low-medium-high vegetation cover, and built-up area. To understand the impact of salinity on crops, several vegetation indices (VIs) such as NDVI, SAVI, EVI, and ARVI are used. The LULC changes classified according to VIs are compared with the MOLUSCE plugin based on artificial neural networkmultilayer perceptron (ANN-MLP) and Cellular Automata (CA). The comparison of VIs results shows that NDVI is better at describing LULC changes due to the influence of salinity, with a kappa value of 0.63 and a Correctness of 72.565. The LULC projection using CA in all VIs indicates that wetland areas are more likely to convert into water bodies, suggesting that high salinity land tends to be unproductive for rice paddies, making it prone to conversion.

Machine Learning for the Sustainable Management of Depth Prediction and Load Optimization in River Convoys: An Amazon Basin Case Study

The seasonal fluctuation of river depths is a critical factor in designing cargo capacity for river convoys and logistics processes used for grain transportation in northern Brazil. Water level variations directly impact the load capacities of pusher convoys navigating the Amazon rivers. This paper presents a machine learning model based on a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network developed with the aim of estimating the cargo capacities of river convoys one year in advance, which is essential for determining load capacities during dry periods. The prediction model was applied to the Tapajós River in the Amazon Basin, Brazil, where grain transportation is significant and relies on inland waterways. Navigability conditions were evaluated in terms of depth and geometric parameters. The results of this case study were satisfactory, validating the computational tool and enabling the assessment of capacity losses during dry periods and the identification of navigation bottlenecks. The main contributions of this work include optimizing river logistics, reducing costs, minimizing environmental impacts, and promoting the sustainable management of water resources in the Amazon. Conclusions drawn from the study indicate that the developed model is highly effective, with an R2 of 0.954 and RMSE of 0.095, demonstrating its potential to significantly enhance river convoy operations and support sustainable development in the region.

Chemical characterization of hibiscus rosa-sinensis plant fibers facilitated through design of experiments and artificial neural network hybrid approach

The integration of natural fibers into Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRPs) has emerged as a promising avenue for sustainable and high-performance composite materials. Natural fibers, derived from plants, offer notable advantages such as renewability, low cost, and environmental friendliness. Among these natural fibers, Hibiscus Rosa-Sinensis (HRS) plant fibers have gained significant attention owing to their widespread availability and unique mechanical properties. In this study, HRS fibers were chemically treated using Sodium Hydroxide (NaOH), Potassium Permanganate (KMnO4), and Acetic Acid (CH3COOH) at different weight percentages (3, 4, 5 Wt.%) and solutionizing times (1, 2, 3 h) based on Taguchi’s L27 orthogonal array. The fibers, extracted from epidermis of the stems, underwent cleaning and chemical treatment after water retting. The crystallinity index, determined via X-ray Diffraction (XRD), indicated a maximum value of 65.77%. Thermo-gravimetric analysis (TGA) exhibited a degradation temperature of 365.24 °C and a material loss of 63.11%. Potassium Permanganate treatment at 4 Wt.% and 3 h of solutionizing time has yielded the best results. Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN) has been successfully applied to accurately predict the output physical characteristics of chemically treated HRS fibers using experimental data. The results are in close alignment with the literature. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) analyses have provided valuable insights into the microstructure and constituents of the chemically treated HRS fibers. This research emphasises on the effectiveness of the chemical treatment process in enhancing the properties of HRS plant fibers for potential composite applications.

Evaluating machine learning performance in predicting sodium adsorption ratio for sustainable soil-water management in the eastern Mediterranean

Soil salinization is a critical global issue for sustainable agriculture, impacting crop yields and posing a threat to achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of ensuring food security. It is necessary to monitor it in detail and uncover its underlying factors at a regional scale. In this context, the present study aimed to evaluate soil health in the eastern Mediterranean region by using the Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR) as an indicator of soil salinity in three distinct soil horizons. The main objective of the research was to evaluate the performance of four machine learning (ML) models, including Random Forest (RF), Nu Support Vector Regression (NuSVR), Artificial Neural Network-Multi Layer Perceptron (ANN-MLP), and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), for accurate prediction of SAR following the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) as a feature selection method. Moreover, SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was applied as sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential covariates. Main findings of the research revealed that the average clay content in the surface horizon (H10-25cm) was 50.5% ± 10.4, which significantly increased to 57.5% ± 8.7 (p < 0.05). No significant mean differences were detected between the studied horizons for SAR and Na+. ML output revealed that NuSVR outperformed other algorithms in accurately predicting outcomes during both the training and testing stages. Moreover, Scenario 2 (SC2) with seven selected features from the RFE method facilitated highly accurate SAR predictions. Overall, the performance of ML models is ranked as NuSVR > GBR > ANN-MLP > RF. Lastly, SHAP sensitivity analysis identified CEC, Ca+2, Mg+2, and Na+ as the most influential variables for SAR prediction in both the training and testing stages. Hence, the research yielded valuable insights for efficient agricultural soil management at a regional level using state-of-the-art technology.

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover changes, LST and NDVI in Thatta district, Sindh, Pakistan

The purpose of this work is to determine land-use and land-cover (LULC) patterns, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes in Thatta district using Landsat data from 1991 to 2021 and evaluate the relationship between LST and NDVI. The research process employed the selection of the study area, data acquisition, preprocessing, and classification of remotely sensed images for the estimation of the land use land cover change (LULC), vegetation index (NDVI), and evaluation of LST using thermal bands in the Landsat dataset. The study revealed the area under built-up structures has increased from 1991 to 2021. Although the vegetation cover showed an increase, the bare soil showed a decreasing pattern, indicating a constant change in the LULC patterns in the region. The confusion matrix method for accuracy valuation of LULC data of 2021 revealed an overall accuracy of 88.24%, with a Kappa coefficient of 84.22%, while the Artificial Neural Network Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) model had a Kappa validation of 0.95 for 2021. The highest maximum temperature is observed for 2021, indicating a positive relationship between LST and built-up structures, while regression analysis found a negative correlation between LST and NDVI. This study provides a valuable monitoring framework to help resource managers develop strategies to manage land resources.

The Forecasting of TheNumber Tourists Arriving in Turkey with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Regression Functions Approach

The impacts of the tourism sector on countries are felt in various areas such as economy, cultural heritage and social development. Tourism contributes significantly to a country's foreign exchange earnings and positively affects the trade network. Tourists' spending boosts local economies and increases employment. These effects are particularly important for Turkey. Tourist visits can be used as a tool for regional promotion. Therefore, tourism demand forecasting is necessary to make the best use of these positive effects on Turkey's economic development and to plan tourism activities. Artificial neural network methods and fuzzy systems for time series forecasting problem are frequently used analysis methods in recent years. In this study, the time series of the total number of tourists visiting Turkey on a monthly basis is analyzed with the intuitionistic fuzzy regression functions approach, which is a generalization of the fuzzy regression functions approach. The analysis performance of the intuitionistic fuzzy regression functions approach is evaluated using fuzzy regression functions approach, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network and multiplicative neuron model artificial neural networks. As a result of the analysis, it is concluded that the intuitionistic fuzzy regression approach produces better forecasting results than both some artificial neural network models and the fuzzy regression functions approach. Since this is the first time that the intuitionistic fuzzy regression functions approach has been used in forecasting the number of tourists, the study aims to contribute to the literature and to help tourism industry employees to be more efficient and successful by providing them with the opportunity to make better future planning.

457 Prediction of methane emissions using rumination time and milk mid-infrared spectral data via artificial neural networks

Abstract Cattle methane emissions (ME) account for approximately 6% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Given the challenges in measuring ME directly from individual animals, there is a need for the development of novel indirect methods. Rumination time (RT) and milk mid-infrared spectral data (MIR) show promise for the indirect assessment of ME in dairy cows. Both traits have been used as indicators of reproduction, production, and gas emission traits. Methodologies combining the use of MIR and machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANN) for the prediction of ME have been successful; however, the inclusion of RT has not been assessed. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of RT on milk MIR-based models using ANN for the prediction of ME. One-week averages for RT, ME, and MIR from first-lactation Canadian Holstein cows (n = 412) were calculated. Six data sets were evaluated using a multilayer perceptron ANN. All sets included age at calving, season of calving and days in milk as model factors, but varied in using milk MIR data points (1,060 or 235) and including or not including RT. The ANN architecture consisted of one input layer, one hidden layer with one or more neurons, and one output layer. Results showed that sets using both RT and milk MIR data achieved correlations from 0.5 to 0.6 between predicted and observed ME. Notably, the inclusion of RT did not improve the performance of the models. Predictions may be improved through the use of larger data sets, the use of daily records, and inclusion of data across herds and lactations. Optimizing parameters of the ANN could also improve predictions. Further research is needed to fully assess the potential of RT as a predictor of ME in dairy cows.