Multi-centennial Timescales Research Articles

Marine carbon sink dominated by biological pump after temperature overshoot

In the event of insufficient mitigation efforts, net-negative CO2 emissions may be required to return climate warming to acceptable limits as defined by the Paris Agreement. The ocean acts as an important carbon sink under increasing atmospheric CO2 levels when the physico-chemical uptake of carbon dominates. However, the processes that govern the marine carbon sink under net-negative CO2 emission regimes are unclear. Here we assessed changes in marine CO2 uptake and storage mechanisms under a range of idealized temperature-overshoot scenarios using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity over centennial timescales. We show that while the fate of CO2 from physico-chemical uptake is very sensitive to future atmospheric boundary conditions and CO2 is partly lost from the ocean at times of net-negative CO2 emissions, storage associated with the biological carbon pump continues to increase and may even dominate marine excess CO2 storage on multi-centennial timescales. Our findings imply that excess carbon that is attributable to the biological carbon pump needs to be considered carefully when quantifying and projecting changes in the marine carbon sink.

Responses of ancient reservoir sediments to water level fluctuations, human activity and climatic changes over the past ∼700 yr in Guizhou Province, southwestern China

Knowledge of the responses of reservoir ecosystems to anthropogenic and climatic impacts on multi-centennial timescales is relatively poor, but is crucial for the management of numerous reservoirs in China. In this study, the history of an ancient reservoir system was reconstructed for the last ∼ 700 yr based on multiple dating methods (210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C) and geochemical data (e.g., the mass accumulation rates, loss-on-ignition values, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus contents, and stable carbon isotope ratios of organic matter) obtained for sediment cores from Gongqing Reservoir in Guizhou Province, southwestern China. Combined with historical literature and regional climatic records, the response of the aquatic ecosystem in Gongqing Reservoir to water level fluctuations, anthropogenic activity, and climatic changes during the last ∼ 700 yr was assessed. The results suggest that dramatic changes in the water level due to dam heightening in 1950 s significantly changed the aquatic ecosystem of Gongqing Reservoir. During periods of low water levels (average water depth = 1–2 m; 1345–1957 CE), aquatic macrophytes contributed more to the sedimentary organic matter, whereas phytoplankton increasingly contributed more during periods of high water levels (∼5 m; 1957–2020 CE). During the late stage (1700–1957 CE) of low water levels, the reservoir ecosystem was significantly affected by human activities. Combined with regional geological and historical records, we consider that increased population and enhanced human activities have markedly affected vegetation conditions in western Guizhou Province since ∼ 1700 CE. After 1957 CE, anthropogenic activities were key in affecting the aquatic ecosystem of Gongqing Reservoir. Especially in the last decade, large housing developments and enhanced agricultural activities in the watershed have led to enhanced catchment erosion and transport of more nutrients into the reservoir, thus promoting the algae productivity. These results provide new insights into how reservoir ecosystems respond to water level fluctuations, anthropogenic activity and climatic changes on multi-centennial timescales.

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Abstract. Understanding long-term committed climate change due to anthropogenic forcing is key to informing climate policies, yet these timescales are still underexplored. We present here a set of 1000-year-long abrupt stabilization simulations performed with EC-Earth3. Each simulation follows a sudden stabilization of the external forcing at the level specified by CMIP6 for historical (1990) or SSP5-8.5 scenario (2025, 2050, 2065, 2080, 2100) conditions, with a final temperature increase ranging between 1.4 and 9.6 K with respect to the pre-industrial baseline. Remarkably, the simulation stabilized at a greenhouse gas (GHG) level close to the present day (2025) exceeds the Paris Agreement goals of 1.5 and 2° warming above pre-industrial in the long term, and only the 1990 simulation leads to a stabilized climate below 1.5° warming. We first focus on the evolution of the climate response at multi-centennial timescales and its dependence on the level of forcing. We note a decrease in the magnitude of the climate feedback parameter at longer timescales. Conversely, simulations with higher forcing exhibit a larger feedback parameter (in magnitude). Subsequently, the evolution of surface warming patterns over multi-centennial timescales is studied. While the response is generally consistent across simulations, some variations, particularly in the South Pacific and at high latitudes, suggest a certain level of state or forcing dependence. The patterns of precipitation change also evolve during the stabilization runs: the drying trends found in the subtropical oceans and in Mediterranean-like hotspots in the SSP5-8.5 scenario tend to be reduced or even reversed. We finally focus on the rate of heat storage in the global ocean, which is the main driver of the climate response at multi-centennial timescales. We find that the rate of warming of the deep ocean is almost independent from the amplitude of the forcing so that most of the additional heat remains in the upper layers at high forcing. This might be due – at least partly – to a decreased ventilation of the deep ocean, caused by changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). These results highlight the importance of studying multi-centennial timescales of climate change to better understand the response of the deep ocean, which will play a crucial role in determining the final state of the climate system once GHG concentrations are stabilized.

Development and carbon accumulation dynamics of a minerotrophic fen during the last millennium, northeast China

Peatlands are terrestrial ecosystems with high carbon sequestration efficiency, providing critical feedback on climate change. It is crucial to understand how peatland development and carbon accumulation respond to various factors to reveal the future direction of carbon reservoirs under changing climatic conditions. To assess the impact of climate and hydrological conditions on the development and carbon accumulation of peatlands, 15 peat core samples were analyzed to examine the processes of lateral expansion in the Dongfanghong (DFH) peatland, a minerotrophic fen located in the Changbai Mountains of northeast China. Accelerator Mass Spectrometry 14C, total organic carbon, dry bulk density, testate amoebae, δ13C of α-cellulose in Carex spp. and plant macrofossil analyses were conducted on a high-resolution peat core. The proxies were used to calculate carbon accumulation rate (CAR) and reconstruct water table depth as well as surface moisture and vegetation development of the DFH peatland. Our findings indicated that the DFH peatland was initiated at 1011 cal. CE and experienced paludification during the last millennium. The expansion of the DFH peatland was primarily determined by hydrological conditions rather than climatic factors such as total solar irradiance and regional temperature. The rapid expansion between 1500 and 1700 cal. CE was likely resulted from relatively low precipitation and a decrease in water table/surface moisture. CAR generally correlated with total solar irradiance, regional temperature, and precipitation, suggesting that climate may be crucial for CAR in DFH peatlands over multi-centennial timescales. However, the increased CAR under relatively dry conditions suggested that the CAR were regulated by hydrological conditions over a centennial timescale. This study highlighted the important roles of climate and hydrological conditions in the lateral expansion and CAR of the peatland in minerotrophic fen and that there may be a threshold for hydrology during the process of peatland development and carbon accumulation.

A Historical Plankton Index: Zooplankton abundance in the North Sea since 800 CE

The North Sea region boasted one of the world’s most important fisheries for many centuries. Climate directly and indirectly influences the development and survival of many important pelagic fish in the North Sea ecosystem. One indirect influence is the food availability in the form of phyto- and zooplankton abundance, which is strongly controlled by environmental factors. One of these environmental factors is local sea surface temperatures. A negative correlation between zooplankton abundance and sea surface temperature is well established for the epeiric sea on the European continental shelf. Continuous temporal observations of North Sea zooplankton production only exist since 1958. Therefore we developed a Historical Plankton Index (HPI) from 800 CE onwards to extend our record of temperature-driven zooplankton abundance in the North Sea over a multi-centennial time scale. For this we used the North Atlantic temperature reconstructions and associations between zooplankton abundance and contemporary sea surface temperatures established applying a General Additive Modelling (GAM) approach. We then examined the association between the HPI and historical landings from the Dutch commercial herring fishery in the 17th century to test the utility of our HPI. We examine the potential influence of food availability (in terms of zooplankton abundance) on the fishery, the evolution of which is often only considered in terms of human influences such as conflict, fishing gear and demand for fish as a commodity. We find that under certain conditions the HPI can explain 20% of the variability in Dutch herring landings. This highlights the importance of developing long-term and large-scale indices of natural marine ecosystem dynamics to understand the historical fortunes of the commercial fishing industry. The results are directly relevant to the United Nations’ sustainable development goal 14 – life below water.

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

This study investigates the possibility of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) noise-induced tipping solely driven by internal climate variability without applying external forcing that alter the radiative forcing or the North Atlantic freshwater budget. We address this hypothesis by applying a rare event algorithm to ensemble simulations of present-day climate with an intermediate complexity climate model. The algorithm successfully identifies trajectories leading to abrupt AMOC slowdowns, which are unprecedented in a 2000-year control run. Part of these AMOC weakened states lead to collapsed state without evidence of AMOC recovery on multi-centennial time scales. The temperature and Northern Hemisphere jet stream responses to these internally-induced AMOC slowdowns show strong similarities with those found in externally forced AMOC slowdowns in state-of-the-art climate models. The AMOC slowdown seems to be initially driven by Ekman transport due to westerly wind stress anomalies in the North Atlantic and subsequently sustained by a complete collapse of the oceanic convection in the Labrador Sea. These results demonstrate that transitions to a collapsed AMOC state purely due to internal variability in a model simulation of present-day climate are rare but theoretically possible. Additionally, these results show that rare event algorithms are a tool of valuable and general interest to study tipping points since they introduce the possibility of collecting a large number of tipping events that cannot be sampled using traditional approaches. This opens the possibility of identifying the mechanisms driving tipping events in complex systems in which little a-priori knowledge is available.

Holocene climate regulates multiple sulfur isotope compositions of pyrite in the East China sea via sedimentation rate

Marine authigenic pyrite sulfur isotope (δ34Spyr) is one of the most important proxies for reconstructing remarkable changes of Earth's surface in deep time. Recent observations of unexpectedly large δ34Spyr variations in Quaternary sediments complicate the application of this isotopic proxy, and a mechanistic understanding of such variabilities is needed. In this study, we measured multiple sulfur isotopic compositions of pyrite in well dated sediments spanning the last 7500 years from the East China Sea (ECS) inner shelf to study the mechanism how Holocene climate controls pyrite sulfur isotopic compositions. We found that variabilities of pyrite multiple sulfur isotopes, δ34Spyr and Δ33Spyr (ranging from −38.3‰ to 2.3‰ and from −0.01‰ to 0.21‰, respectively) are significantly correlated with large fluctuations of sedimentation rates (0.03–2.09 cm/yr). In tandem with box model calculations and compiled data, the large δ34Spyr variations up to 40‰ are primarily ascribed to fluctuated anaerobic oxidation of methane coupled sulfate reduction (AOM-SR). Further analyses suggest that heightened distillation of interstitial sulfate, likely propelled by high methane flux coupled with increased sedimentation rates, can produce such negatively correlated δ34Spyr-Δ33Spyr pattern and large variations in δ34Spyr. Possible changes in isotope fractionation factors caused by varied cell-specific sulfate reduction rates result in a maximum δ34Spyr variation of <20‰ and therefore play a minor role in the large variation in δ34Spyr (>40‰). The major and minor isotopic compositions of pyrite align with sulfide produced through pure sulfate reduction, indicating little evidence of additional oxidative sulfur cycling. Sedimentation rates in the ECS are controlled by the East Asian winter monsoon that influences the sediment transport capacity from longshore currents on a multicentennial timescale, and also by the coupled East Asian summer monsoon that affects the sediment availability from the Yangtze River on a millennial timescale. Holocene climate changes alter sediment supplies at the ECS and therefore play a vital role in controlling multiple sulfur isotope compositions of sedimentary pyrite in this region. This study has the potential to provide new insights into δ34S excursions in seawater sulfate that occurred during periods of notable acceleration in sedimentation rates throughout the geological history.

Testing heavy rainfall change in Jeju Island, Korea and its linkage to typhoon activity over East Asia during the Holocene

Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of extreme hydrologic events, especially those driven by typhoons over Asia, and their controlling factors is essential to testing and predicting their future changes under global warming. Here, we present a series of direct heavy-rainfall records over the past ca. 10,000 years based on lake sediments from a volcanic cone (Sara Oreum) on Jeju Island, Korea, where orographic amplification of precipitation is dominant and sensitive to present typhoon activity. The reconstructed heavy rainfall index based on the high-resolution elemental ratios (e.g., Ti/Al and Sr/Si) shows clear variability at centennial timescales and is similar to records of coastal flooding events along the southern coast of Korea, typhoon-driven overwash events along the south-western coast of Japan, indicating strong typhoon influence on the heavy rainfall events in Jeju Island during the Holocene. Furthermore, this heavy rainfall-typhoon linkage has been influenced by past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and sea surface temperature (SST) in the western Tropical Pacific, showing time-varying influences. This study suggests that on decadal to multi-centennial timescales, stronger ENSO activity is responsible for eastward shift in the location of typhoon genesis, resulting in more frequent recurving tracks of typhoon and increased landfalls in Korea and Japan, whereas SST affects the intensification rate of typhoon. The heavy rainfall index reconstructed from the volcanic cones of Jeju Island may be used as an indicator of past frequency and track changes of typhoon over highly populated East Asia.

Abrupt change in tropical Pacific climate mean state during the Little Ice Age

The mean state of the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate, in particular its east-west asymmetry, has profound consequences for regional climates and for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability. Here we present a new high-resolution paleohydrological record using the stable-hydrogen-isotopic composition of terrestrial-lipid biomarkers (δDwax) from a 1,400-year-old lake sedimentary sequence from northern Philippines. Results show a dramatic and abrupt increase in δDwax values around 1630 AD with sustained high values until around 1900 AD. We interpret this change as a shift to significantly drier conditions in the western tropical Pacific during the second half of the Little Ice Age as a result of a change in tropical Pacific mean state tied to zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. Our findings highlight the prominent role of abrupt shifts in zonal SST gradients on multidecadal to multicentennial timescales in shaping the tropical Pacific hydrology of the last millennium, and demonstrate that a marked transition in the tropical Pacific mean state can occur within a period of a few decades.

Postglacial fluctuations of western outlet glaciers of the Southern Patagonian Icefield reconstructed from fjord sediments (Chile, 50°S)

Postglacial fluctuations of Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) glaciers are well constrained on the leeward side of the Andes, but they remain mostly unknown on the windward side of the icefield, where most glaciers are marine-terminating. Here, we reconstruct the postglacial fluctuations of the HPS19, Penguin, and Europa glaciers along the hyperhumid western side of the SPI using a multi-proxy sedimentological and geochemical analysis of a 12.2 m long sediment core from Wide Channel (50°S). Results show that the glaciers retreated into Penguin and Europa fjords by 11.2 cal kyr BP and that they were relatively stable and marine-terminating between 11.2 and 5.8 cal kyr BP. Thereafter, they fluctuated rapidly, with four marked episodes of glacier shrinkage at 5.8–4.8, 3.9–2.4, 1.0–0.2 cal kyr BP, and during the 20th century. Although the HPS19, Penguin, and Europa glaciers were calving into Penguin and Europa fjords during most of the Holocene, our data suggest that they retreated to land-based positions between 5.8 and 4.8 cal kyr BP. The comparison of our sediment record with geological archives from both sides of the Patagonian icefields (46°–56°S) suggests synchronous glacier variability on multi-centennial timescales during the Neoglacial period, which is particularly clear after 2.5 cal kyr BP. We conclude that western SPI outlet glaciers remained relatively stable during the first half of the Holocene but fluctuated considerably during the Neoglacial period, and that they retreated to locations further inland than today during the first retreat of the Neoglacial period between 5.8 and 4.8 cal kyr BP.

Tracking westerly wind directions over Europe since the middle Holocene

The variability of the northern westerlies has been considered as one of the key elements for modern and past climate evolution. Their multiscale behavior and underlying control mechanisms, however, are incompletely understood, owing to the complex dynamics of Atlantic sea-level pressures. Here, we present a multi-annually resolved record of the westerly drift over the past 6,500 years from northern Italy. In combination with more than 20 other westerly-sensitive records, our results depict the non-stationary westerly-affected regions over mainland Europe on multi-decadal to multi-centennial time scales, showing that the direction of the westerlies has changed with respect to the migrations of the North Atlantic centers of action since the middle Holocene. Our findings suggest the crucial role of the migrations of the North Atlantic dipole in modulating the westerly-affected domain over Europe, possibly modulated by Atlantic Ocean variability.

Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations

Variability on centennial to multi-centennial timescales is mentioned as a feature in reconstructions of the Holocene climate. As more long transient model simulations with complex climate models become available and efforts have been made to compile large proxy databases, there is now a unique opportunity to study multi-centennial variability with greater detail and a large amount of data than earlier. This paper presents a spectral analysis of transient Holocene simulations from 9 models and 120 proxy records to find the common signals related to oscillation periods and geographic dependencies and discuss the implications for the potential driving mechanisms. Multi-centennial variability is significant in most proxy records, with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–130 years and an average of 240 years. Spectra of model-based global mean temperature (GMT) agree well with proxy evidence with significant multi-centennial variability in all simulations with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–150 years. It indicates a comparatively good agreement between model and proxy data. A lack of latitudinal dependencies in terms of oscillation period is found in both the model and proxy data. However, all model simulations have the highest spectral density distributed over the Northern hemisphere high latitudes, which could indicate a particular variability sensitivity or potential driving mechanisms in this region. Five models also have differentiated forcings simulations with various combinations of forcing agents. Significant multi-centennial variability with oscillation periods between 100 and 200 years is found in all forcing scenarios, including those with only orbital forcing. The different forcings induce some variability in the system. Yet, none appear to be the predominant driver based on the spectral analysis. Solar irradiance has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of multi-centennial variability. However, all the simulations without this forcing have shown significant multi-centennial variability. The results then indicate that internal mechanisms operate on multi-centennial timescales, and the North Atlantic-Arctic is a region of interest for this aspect.

Climate Sensitivity is Sensitive to Changes in Ocean Heat Transport

AbstractDo changes in ocean heat transport (OHT) that occur with CO2forcing, impact climate sensitivity in Earth system models? Changes in OHT with warming are ubiquitous in model experiments: when forced with CO2, such models exhibit declining poleward OHT in both hemispheres at most latitudes, which can persist over multicentennial time scales. To understand how changes in OHT may impact how the climate system responds to CO2forcing, particularly climate sensitivity, we perform a series of Earth system model experiments in which we systematically perturb OHT (in a slab ocean, relative to its preindustrial control climatology) while simultaneously doubling atmospheric CO2. We find that equilibrium climate sensitivity varies substantially with OHT. Specifically, there is a 0.6 K decrease in global mean surface warming for every 10% decline in poleward OHT. Radiative feedbacks from CO2doubling, and the warming attributable to each of them, generally become more positive (or less negative) when poleward OHT increases. Water vapor feedback differences account for approximately half the spread in climate sensitivity between experiments, while differences in the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks account for the rest. Prescribed changes in OHT instigate opposing changes in atmospheric energy transport and the general circulation, which explain differences in atmospheric water vapor and lapse rate between experiments. Our results show that changes in OHT modify atmospheric radiative feedbacks at all latitudes, thereby driving changes in equilibrium climate sensitivity. More broadly, they demonstrate that radiative feedbacks are not independent of the coupled (atmosphere and ocean) dynamic responses that accompany greenhouse gas forcing.

Time-dependent response of the overturning circulation and pycnocline depth to Southern Ocean surface wind stress changes

Abstract Changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) surface wind stress influence both the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and stratification not only in the SO but in the global oceans, which can take multiple millennia to fully equilibrate. We use a hierarchy of models to investigate the time-dependent response of the MOC and low-latitude pycnocline depth (which quantifies the stratification) to SO wind stress changes: a two-layer analytical theory, a multi-column model (PyMOC), and an idealized general circulation model (GCM). We find that in both the GCM and PyMOC, the MOC has a multi-decadal adjustment timescale while the pycnocline depth has a multi-centennial timescale. The two-layer theory instead predicts the MOC and pycnocline depth to adjust on the same, multi-decadal timescale. We argue that this discrepancy arises because the pycnocline depth depends on the bulk stratification, while the MOC amplitude is sensitive mostly to isopycnals within the overturning cell. We can reconcile the discrepancy by interpreting the “pycnocline depth” in the theory as the depth of a specific isopycnal near the maximum of the MOC. We also find that SO stationary eddies respond very quickly to a sudden wind stress change, compensating for most of the change in the Ekman-driven MOC. This effect is missing in the theory, where the eddy-induced MOC only follows the adjustment of the pycnocline depth. Our results emphasize the importance of depth-dependence in the oceans’ transient response to changes in surface boundary conditions, and the distinct role played by stationary eddies in the SO.

Climate controls on tufa deposition over the last 5000 years: A case study from Northwest Africa

The occurrence and rate of tufa deposition are controlled by a large number of external and internal factors, including climate which often represents the main allocyclic factor. In this study, the first of its kind in the Middle Atlas (Northern Morocco), we test the dependency between climate factor and Holocene tufa deposits in basin-like settings that involve enlarged barrage and extensive dammed area using sedimentologic and stratigraphic analyses complemented with a paleoclimate multi-proxy approach and radiocarbon dating. The sedimentologic and stratigraphic analyses revealed a remarkable change in the vertical stacking pattern within the main barrage-cascade: higher (lower) Aggradation/Progradation ratio between ca. 4 and ca. 2.7 cal kyr B.P. (between ca. 2.7 and ca. 0.35 cal kyr B.P.), which would have conditioned a transgressive (highstand) interval “basinward”. This shift is modulated by changes in precipitation and summer insolation, which is consistent with the petrographic analysis of the laminated microbialites (oncoids and stromatolites). The previously reported arid and cold period of the Mid-Holocene Transition (between 6 and 5 cal kyr B.P.) is recorded in the sedimentary deposits and demonstrates landscape instability. The North Atlantic high-latitude cooling events between 4.6 and 2.7 cal kyr B.P. (Bond events 2 and 3) resulted in the interruption of (bio-)calcification and the development of fen and sapropel (organic-rich facies) layers, respectively. The 4.2 ka event, might have coincided herein with a fifth-order bounding surface delineating the two depositional sequences recognized on the “basin-scale”. A multi-centennial timescale period with climate optimum conditions coinciding with enhanced calcite precipitation at the downstream-facing of the main barrage (buttress development), and centred at ca. 2 cal kyr B.P. may coincide with the Roman-Iberian Climate Optimum. A recurrent occurrence with a high frequency of sub-humid marshy conditions underscored the upper part of the highstand interval which may reflect solar imprints, as already reported in previous studies in the region. • Tufa is a promising paleoclimate archive for millennial and multicentennial variability. • Climate is the main allocyclic control on the stacking pattern at barrage-cascade settings. • Higher (lower) summer temperature enhanced (reduced) vertical accretion at the barrage sill. • Bond events 4.6 and 2.7 ka coincided with fen and sapropel development, respectively. • Tufa is likely to record solar imprints in basin-like settings.

A salty deep ocean as a prerequisite for glacial termination

Deglacial transitions of the middle to late Pleistocene (terminations) are linked to gradual changes in insolation accompanied by abrupt shifts in ocean circulation. However, the reason these deglacial abrupt events are so special compared with their sub-glacial-maximum analogues, in particular with respect to the exaggerated warming observed across Antarctica, remains unclear. Here we show that an increase in the relative importance of salt versus temperature stratification in the glacial deep South Atlantic decreases the potential cooling effect of waters that may be upwelled in response to abrupt perturbations in ocean circulation, as compared with sub-glacial-maximum conditions. Using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, we then demonstrate that an increase in deep-ocean salinity stratification stabilizes relatively warm waters in the glacial deep ocean, which amplifies the high southern latitude surface ocean temperature response to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation. The mechanism can produce a doubling in the net rate of warming across Antarctica on a multicentennial timescale when starting from full glacial conditions (as compared with interglacial or subglacial conditions) and therefore helps to explain the large magnitude and rapidity of glacial terminations during the late Quaternary.

Internal Ocean Dynamics Control the Long-Term Evolution of Weddell Sea Polynya Activity

Open-ocean polynyas effectively couple the ocean and atmosphere through large ice-free areas within the sea-ice cover, release vast quantities of oceanic heat, and impact deep ocean ventilation. Changes in polynya activity, particularly in the Weddell Sea, may be key to longer time-scale climate fluctuations, feedbacks and abrupt change. While changes in the occurrence of Weddell Sea polynyas are generally attributed to changes in the atmospheric surface forcing, the role of internal ocean dynamics for polynya variability is not well-resolved. In this study we employ a global coupled ocean-sea ice model with a repeating annual atmospheric cycle to explore changes in Weddell Sea water mass properties, stratification and ocean circulation driven by open-ocean polynyas. During the 1300-year long simulation, two large polynyas occur in the central Weddell Sea. Our results suggest that Weddell polynyas may be triggered without inter-annual changes in the atmospheric forcing. This highlights the role of ocean processes in preconditioning and triggering open-ocean polynyas on multi-centennial time-scales. The simulated polynyas form due to internal ocean-sea ice dynamics associated with a slow build-up and subsequent release of subsurface heat. A strong stratification and weak vertical mixing is necessary for building the subsurface heat reservoir. Once the water column turns unstable, enhanced vertical mixing of warm and saline waters into the surface layer causes efficient sea ice melt and the polynya appears. Subsequent, vigorous deep convection is maintained through upwelling of warm deep water leading to enhanced bottom water formation. We find a cessation of simulated deep convection and polynya activity due to long-term cooling and freshening of the subsurface heat reservoir. As subsurface waters in the Southern Ocean are now becoming warmer and saltier, we speculate that larger and more persistent Weddell polynyas could become more frequent in the future.

Hydroclimatic changes in the British Isles through the Last-Glacial-Interglacial Transition: Multiproxy reconstructions from the Vale of Pickering, NE England

European paleoenvironmental records through the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT; ca 16-8 cal ka BP) record a series of climatic events occurring over decadal to multi-centennial timescales. Changes in components of the climatic system other than temperature (e.g. hydrology) through the LGIT are relatively poorly understood however, and further records of hydroclimatic changes are required in order to develop a more complete understanding on the phasing of environmental and anthropogenic responses in Europe to abrupt climate change. Here, we present a multiproxy palaeoenvironmental record (macroscale and microscale sedimentology, macrofossils, and carbonate stable isotopes) from a palaeolake sequence in the Vale of Pickering (VoP), NE England, which enables the reconstruction of hydroclimatic changes constrained by a radiocarbon-based chronology. Relative lake-level changes in the VoP occurred in close association (although not necessarily in phase) to threshold shifts across abrupt climate change transitions, most notably lowering during cooling intervals of the LGIT (∼GI-1d, ∼GI-1b, and ∼GS-1). This reflects more arid hydroclimates associated with these cooling episodes in the British Isles. Comparisons to hydrological records elsewhere in Europe show a latitudinal bifurcation, with Northern Europe (50–60°N) becoming more arid (humid), and Southern Europe (40–50°N) becoming more humid (arid) in response to these cooling (warming) intervals. We attribute these bifurcating signals to the relative positions of the Atlantic storm tracks, sea-ice margin, and North Atlantic Polar Front (NAPF) during the climatic events of the LGIT.

Holocene Climate Modulates Mud Supply, Transport, and Sedimentation on the East China Sea Shelf

AbstractShelf mud is an important sink for fluvial sediment, and it is sensitive to variations in river discharge and ocean circulation, which are significantly influenced by climate change. However, the evolution of shelf mud in response to climate change during the Holocene is poorly understood. Here, we present high‐resolution sedimentary records of heavy minerals and mass accumulation rates (MARs) from the East China Sea shelf to study the response mechanisms of the Holocene shelf mud supply, transport, and sedimentation to the climate‐driven variations in fluvial discharge and ocean currents. The results indicate that the shelf mud primarily originates from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and has been mainly transported by wind‐driven longshore currents in suspension since approximately 8.0 ka. A comparison of the MARs with several shelf mud sedimentation‐rate records and climate changes during the Holocene on millennial timescales showed that strong (weak) precipitation in the river basin, which is positively linked with Asian summer monsoon and El Niño‐driven storms, could intensify (weaken) the fluvial sediment supply, thereby increasing (decreasing) the shelf mud deposition flux. On multicentennial timescales, changes in the relative intensities of different ocean currents due to climate oscillations during the Holocene could generate frequent migrations of the current shear front (a hydrodynamic barrier), which has trapped an abundance of suspended materials on the shoreward side and resulted in rapid mud sedimentation (~2.3 g/cm2/year) at different sites during different periods. Therefore, our study highlights that the Holocene shelf mud evolution responds sensitively to climate changes on different timescales.

Internal kinematics of the Slumgullion landslide (USA) from high-resolution UAVSAR InSAR data

Landslides represent one of the most damaging natural hazards and often lead to unexpected casualties and property damage. They also continually modify our natural environment and landscapes. Knowledge of landslide systems is largely restricted by the stochastic nature, subjective interpretation and infrequent or spatially sparse surveying of landslides. Characterized by persistent daily movements of a couple of centimeters over multi-centennial timescales and a long narrow shape as long as ~4 km, the Slumgullion landslide in Colorado, USA represents an ideal natural laboratory to study slow-moving landslides. Here we demonstrate the capability of the highly accurate, spatially continuous airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) system of the NASA Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) to characterize the kinematic details of internal deformation of the Slumgullion landslide using SAR interferometry (InSAR). We develop a phase-based approach to automatically extract the boundaries of the mobile geological structures without unwrapping. Comparison with historic field observations from 1991 reveals the 40-m advance of the frontal toe and shift of an internal fault. The UAVSAR data also resolve an internal minislide (100 by 70 m), which moves more southerly than the main body at 5 mm/day in the lower part of the landslide. A Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) shows that the minislide is associated with the opening of a 30 by 10 m pull-apart basin and bounding strike-slip faults. These extensional structures, nearby incised streams, and steepened local slopes helped establish the kinematic environment for the formation of the secondary minislide. The disparity between the UAVSAR InSAR-derived horizontal moving directions and the LiDAR DEM-derived slope aspects suggest that while the surface topography governs the first-order orientation, the local kinematics is also subject to the variable nature of heterogeneous landslide materials and the irregular basal bedrock surface. The landslide velocity and precipitation show similar multi-annual variations. Our study demonstrates that the freely available, high-resolution UAVSAR data, have great potential for characterizing landslide kinematics and other small-scale geological and geomorphological processes.