Mudflow Hazard Research Articles

Cartographic Aspects of Landslide and Mudflow Hazard Assessment in Kakheti Region (Georgia)

Cartographic Aspects of Landslide and Mudflow Hazard Assessment in Kakheti Region (Georgia)

Селевые явления на всесезонном туристско-рекреационном комплексе Мамисон

Introduction. The territory of North Ossetia-Alania has significant potential for recreational development. One of these favorable areas is the high-mountain gorge Mamison, where the Zemegondon and Kozydon rivers merge, which, downstream, form the Mamikhdon River. The government decided to create an all-season tourist and recreational complex “Mamison”. It is planned to create a world-class resort here. Purpose of research. Assessment of mudflow hazard in the area of the “Mamison” and forecast of the dynamics of its development. Materials and methods of research: published scientific and technical information, archival and stock materials, previous reports on engineering surveys on the territory of the “Mamison” were used. The mudflow hazard assessment was carried out using the method of full-scale specialized field survey. Field work to assess mudflow hazard was completed in July 2023. Research results. An assessment of the mudflow hazard at the “Mamison” and the surrounding area revealed: the number of mudflow rivers - 14; morphological type of mudflow sources: incisions, potholes, rocky areas, eroded surfaces; frequency of mudflows - on average once every 3–5 years; mudflow volumes - from 1000 to 50 000 m3 , very rarely (once every 50 years) can exceed 100 000 m3 ; genesis of mudflows - rain, snow-rain and glacial-rain. It has been established that the main influence on mudflow occurrences is exerted by hydrometeorological conditions (snowmelt, precipitation). Based on the results of the study, a mudflow hazard map was created for the territory of the “Mamison” and the adjacent territory, where mudflow channels, mudflow sources, transit zones and mudflow deposits are identified. Conclusion. The territory of the “Mamison” is very dangerous for mudflows. As the recreational development of the region increases, the frequency of mudflows will increase, which will lead to an increase in mudflow hazard. To reduce mudflow activity in the territory under consideration, it is necessary to carry out measures: include in the throughput capacity of hydraulic structures the costs of not only storm runoff, but also mudflows; creation of an effective system for monitoring mudflow conditions.

ІЛЕ АЛАТАУЫНЫҢ ОРТАЛЫҚ БӨЛІГІНДЕГІ ӨЗЕН АЛАПТАРЫНЫҢ СЕЛ ҚАУІПТІЛІГІН БАҒАЛАУ ЖӘНЕ ЗОНАЛАУ

Mudflow risk management measures in the study area consist of assessment and mapping of mudflow hazard and risk, preventive measures, monitoring, early warning, construction of mudflow protection structures. Due to global warming and intensive development of the Ulken and Kishi Almaty river basins, it became necessary to determine the criteria affecting the occurrence and development of mudflow hazards in the territory and assess the degree of their impact. This article defines the criteria of mudflow hazard, taking into account the mudflow-forming factors and mechanisms of the mudflow occurrence, as well as criteria aimed at determining the vulnerability of the territory to a mudflow due to the features that create conditions for the formation of a mudflow in the zones of origin, transit, deposition of a mudflow, as well as recipients in the zone of impact of a mudflow. As a result, a large-scale (1:25000) map of the mudflow hazard and vulnerability of the territory was created on the basis of a multi-criteria decision-making method. The developed maps play an important role in planning actions to reduce, early warning and prevent the negative consequences of mudflow.

Ensuring the protection of Abay region from the threat of mudflows

This article describes mudflows, a special category of hydrological threats that pose a threat to human life. Factors and types of mudflows are recorded. Mudflow hazard zones in the Abay region, conditions for mudflows, and natural factors contributing to mudflows are listed. It is characterized by the slope of the channel and the fact that, depending on the presence of channel deposits in it, the mass and speed of movement of the mudflow are subject to changes, and the mudflow is divided by the power of impact on the slope and the volume of the transported mass. An example of mudflows that occurred in Kazakhstan is given. Mudflow protection involves predicting the occurrence of mudflows and conducting special events. Therefore, the need for the construction of protective structures used in flood prevention, agroforestry and reclamation measures for special measures to protect against mudflows and special hydraulic structures is outlined. Such structures are designed to contain protected facilities with high mudflow emissions, to divert mudflow away from facilities, as well as to protect the facility from the impact of mudflow.The need to plan the terrain in the mudflow zone, install drains, divert surface and groundwater, carry out forest reclamation works and safety measures in areas with a risk of mudflows are outlined.

Modeling of the possible negative impact of mudflows in the monitoring of mudflow basins of the river Mzymta

The article considers the identification of potential sources of formation of water and mudflows in the area of the Olympic objects of the southern slope of the Psekhako ridge and the catchment areas of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Galion rivers (the catchment area of the Mzymta river). The collection and study of natural, climatic and morphological characteristics mudflow basins and the study of the possibility of their negative impact on the operated Olympic facilities, the creation of a database of mudflow basins. Implementation of the results of studies of the natural-climatic and morphological characteristics of the mudflow basin of the river. Mzymta is assumed in the justification of anti-mudflow measures to protect the infrastructure of operated Olympic facilities from the negative impact of water and mudflows. To ensure the reliability of the functioning of these foundations and foundations of structures. It is important to take into account the possibility of a negative impact on them of water and mudflows that form in the conditions of mountainous terrain and natural and climatic features of this region, as well as due to the extremely insufficient knowledge of the current state of development in these territories. mudflow processes and the possibility of their activation as a result of the impact on the natural landscapes of mudflow basins during the operation of the foundations and foundations of Olympic facilities and their infrastructure (access and technological roads, power lines, ski slopes, chairlifts, various sites, etc.). Taking into account the impact of the consequences of a large-scale technogenic impact on the natural landscape, in the territory of operation of the Olympic facilities along the southern slope of the Psekhako ridge, the materials of the survey confirm the conclusions about the increased mudflow hazard of the watercourses of the river. Rudnichny, r. Sumasshedshiy, r. Kamburovsky. The main reason for the descent of these mudflows is the technogenic impact on the upstream natural landscapes, including the discharge of liquefied soil dumps from steep slopes, the concentration of surface runoff into concentrated eroded, cuts, etc. Simulation modeling of the stability of the river slopes was performed. Tobias, the most dangerous combinations of impacts under static and seismic conditions, to predict the formation of mudflows.

GEO-INFORMATION ANALYSIS OF MUDFLOW DANGER AND THREAT ASSESSMENT FOR BRIDGE STRUCTURES WITHIN THE TERRITORY OF TRANSCARPATHIA

Problem Statement and Purpose. Mudflows are quite common in the world and in Ukraine in particular. There are three mudflow-prone basins in the Carpathian region of Ukraine. Mudflowing processes threaten infrastructure facilities, in particular highways and bridge crossings. Therefore, it is advisable to monitor and forecast their development. Geoinformation technologies are the main tool that should be used for monitoring and modeling the development of mudflow processes. Damage to bridges, which are primarily exposed to the mudflow process, as a result of mudflows, is caused by phenomena that can be summarized by the terms – impact, abrasion, erosion and vibration. Mudflows also activate erosion phenomena, change the position of the watercourse channel, which leads to damage to bridge structures. The purpose of the study is to assess the risk of mudflows for bridge structures for the territory of eastern Transcarpathia using methods of geoinformation analysis and modeling. Data & Methods. At the present stage, it is common to model and forecast the development of mudflow processes based on taking into account the combined effect of factors. The main factors of the occurrence and development of mudflow phenomena include: tectonic, geological, hydrological conditions, modern exogenous geological processes, soil and plant cover and anthropogenic activity. The process of modeling and forecasting of mudflow hazard includes such basic stages as the selection of a set of factors affecting the development of mudflow, assessment of the level of their influence, calculation of integral indices of sediment activity, creation of a prognostic geo-informational model of mudflow hazard. Results. A spatial prognostic model of mudflow hazard was created for the area that occupies the eastern part of Transcarpathia, the main part of which is located in the mountainous Carpathians. Mudflow processes of rain genesis are mainly observed in the mentioned territories. The spatial model has a constant character, since the spatial factors of the development of mudflow processes are not variable in time and determine the probability of the occurrence of a mudflow phenomenon in space, the period of activation is determined by the influence of time factors for which a time complex indicator should be calculated. Based on the created mudflow hazard model for the research area, the mudflow hazard for bridge crossings was assessed. It was established that a high probability of mudflow hazard is characteristic of 45 bridges. These bridge structures are located in the upper reaches of the Tereblya and Teresva rivers, in the basin of the Black Tysa and White Tysa rivers. For a detailed assessment of engineering and geological threats to bridge structures as a result of the development of mudflows, floods, coastal erosion processes, it is advisable to use a comprehensive approach, using the toolkit of geoinformation systems and a wide range of data sources, in particular, data from remote sensing of the Earth.

Ecological and engineering solutions for the reconstruction of anti-mudflow hydraulic structures of the Crimea

The article studies the territorial features of the formation of a dangerous process - mudflows. The factors of mudflow hazard formation are described, the classification and characteristics of mudflows formed in the Crimea are given. The methods of studying mudflows are considered, the parameters of the mudflow are calculated on the example of the Shelen River, on the basis of which options for the reconstruction of existing mudflow protection structures are proposed. The purpose of the article is to substantiate environmental engineering solutions for the reconstruction of anti-mudflow hydraulic structures in mudflow-prone Crimean river basins. The object of research is the basin of the Shelen River typical for the South-Eastern rural area. The purpose of the research is to substantiate technical solutions for the reconstruction of anti-mudflow structures in the Shelen River basin. Research objectives: to study the conditions for the formation of Crimean mudflows, the history of research and classification; consider existing methods for studying mudflow hazard and calculation methods for determining the parameters of mudflows; to characterize the current state of anti-mudflow structures on the example of the Shelen river basin; justify decisions on the reconstruction of anti-mudflow structures and develop recommendations for their restoration. In the article, on the basis of field studies, hydrological flood flow rates, annual runoff volumes, water flow rates and volumes in years of different water content and average monthly water flow rates using the Shelen River basin as an example, the mudflow parameters are calculated. Anti-mudflow structures were identified and their condition was analyzed. Based on the results of the study, proposals and environmental engineering technical solutions for the reconstruction of existing anti-mudflow structures were developed

Study of the hydrogeological, engineering-geological and hydrological regime of the Kaiyndy Lake basin for an emergency spillway from Kaiyndy Lake

This article provides information on the stability of the natural dam of Lake Kaiyndy in the study area. Lake Kaiyndy is located in the middle part of the basin and is fed by melted snow and rainwater. The flow of water from the lake is carried out by the surface. The lake belongs to the high category of mudflow hazard. During the technogenic development of this territory, one should consider the negative impact of the additional load on the stability of the sides of the canyon and not expand the development of the territory towards the river. In the event of a lake outburst, the road bridge of the village of Zhalanash - the village of Saty, residential buildings and farmland of the village of Algabas and Zhanatalap of the Kegen district, the village of Shelek, the village of Masak, the village of Baiseit, the village of Malybay, with. Zhanasharua of the Enbekshikazakh district and the Bartogay reservoir of the Almaty region, road bridges, power lines. The total number of people in the risk zone is more than 2-3 thousand people. Also, the Kuldzhinsky Trakt highways, the Western China-Western Europe auto-ban, irrigation systems, the waterworks of the Kunaev BAC and other linear communications fall into the zone of influence. Lake Kaiyndy is a place of mass visits by tourists and vacationers. In summer, the number of people at risk can reach several hundred.

Диагностика эрозионной устойчивости селеопасных участков на территории Республики Крым

Purpose: to make a semi-quantitative assessment of mudflow risk based on empirical data on mudflows and the consequences of their collapse, obtained during the work at the construction and reconstruction of the Lgovskoe – Grushevka – Sudak highway on the territory of the Republic of Crimea and to develop recommendations on state stabilization, based on the assessment results. Materials and methods. The initial data on mudflows are divided into three groups, for each a step-by-step calculation was performed and points were assigned. The criteria by which the assessment has been made: the level of mudflow hazard and the amount of damage, the dependence of the amount of damage on the protective structures’ state. Calculated indicators such as mudflow velocity, flow rate, etc. have also been determined. Each group is assigned a mudflow risk category based on the results of scoring, taking into account their significance. Results. According to the results of the study, the total score for the third group is 15.18, which corresponds to the second category of mudflow risk, which is characterized by a high probability of significant damage. For the first and second groups, the total score is 9.88 and 11.34, respectively, thus, both groups fall within the boundaries of the third category of mudflow hazard. Conclusions. A semi-quantitative assessment of mudflow risk allows identifying potentially dangerous areas, informing on the threat and taking measures for land protection in advance. In order to protect lands from the destructive power of mudflows within the boundaries of the basins of the third group, it is necessary to erect mudflow protection structures, namely: agroforestry-reclamation erosion protection structures, mudflow retention, mudflow passage, mudflow-preventing structures and other engineering protection facilities of the territory.

Results of monitoring of hazardous natural processes in the Belaya river basin

The main purpose of the research is to identify the presence of hazardous natural processes in the Belaya River basin. For this, field monitoring of hazardous processes was carried out according to the methodology developed and tested in the study of the Central Caucasus using technical means (GPS - survey of the study area and measurement of the characteristics of economic objects using a range finder). Based on the monitoring data, a digital cartographic visualization of the results was carried out, and an inventory of the flood and mudflow hazard of the river basin was compiled White. The monitoring results showed that the river basin. Belaya has an average degree of susceptibility to hazardous exogenous natural processes of various types - an average degree for mudflow processes, while the flood hazard can be an order of magnitude higher due to some natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, the annual geoecological monitoring of hazardous natural processes is necessary to assess the actual natural hazard of the region under study.

Assessment of ecological-geomorphological strength and risk of geosystems of the north-eastern slope of the Great Caucasus (within Azerbaijan)

Problem statement. The increased human pressure on natural geo-complexes is causing the revival of undesirable processes that create an extensive risk for the inhabitants of these regions. Alpine-type orogenic zones, which belong to the northeastern slope of the Greater Caucasus, are distinguished from many geomorphological systems by excessive activity of endo- and exogenous processes. Therefore, at this time, the task of diagnosing and assessing the ecological and geomorphological risk that the population faces in the development of new territories of the region seems to be important. Analysis of recent research and publications. After analyzing a number of techniques used to assess the landslide and mudflow hazards, the conclusion was made that most of them had their flaws. Research method. There are a large number of methods for assessing the risk of environmental management and predicting hazardous exodynamic processes. However, in modern conditions, these techniques are not sufficiently reliable. This, in turn, determines the relevance and the need to develop new or modernised methods of strategies for the prevention, protection, and elimination of the consequences of catastrophes and natural disasters. The purpose of this work is to reveal the geomorphological features and dynamics of the development of the most dangerous and often repeating landslide and mudflow processes based on field geomorphological studies, as well as fund literature, indicate the reasons for their formation and propose measures to combat them. Research results. The article discusses the results of ecological and geomorphological surveys on the northeastern slope of the Greater Caucasus, dedicated to the assessment of landslide and mudflow risk for the period from 1990 to 2020. To assess them in order to obtain morphometric characteristics (including the down gradient of slopes, the length and shape of slopes, areas of mudflow centers), large-scale (M 1:100000) topographic maps were used, as well as interpretation materials for different-scale and multi-temporal ASP. Based on the interpretation of the ASP within the studied region, in order to clarify the general picture of the dissection of the modern relief of the studied region, a map of morphometric tension was compiled, which includes the degree of vertical dissection of the territory, the down gradient of slopes, etc., and also maps of the risk of landslides and mudflows were compiled according to the degree of danger of landslide and mudflow processes, and the area of their distribution was calculated. Landslide and mudflow risk analysis mainly used high-resolution aerospace imagery (ASI) from CNES / Airbus, Maxar Technologies (GeoEye-1), and medium resolution Sentinel-2A and 2B. Thus visual and semi-automatic interpretation (classification with training) was performed in the ArcGIS environment. As a result, taking into account the morphometric tension, as well as the mudflow and landslide hazards, a map of the morphodynamic tension of the northeastern slope of the Greater Caucasus was compiled, which makes it possible to reveal the modern nature of the manifestation of exodynamic processes, to predict and assess the risk coming from them. Conclusion. The results of the research will make it possible to use the obtained data for the development of the Program for the safe and sustainable functioning and development for the purpose of recreational and tourist development of the difficult of access mountain geosystems of Azerbaijan.

Влияние селей на территориальную организацию хозяйств в населенных пунктах бассейнов горных рек (на примере междуречья Дзегамчай -Гянджачай в азербайджанской части Малого Кавказа)

The article analyzes the scientific and methodological foundations for studying the mudflow hazard in the country between Dzegamchay rivers in the Azerbaijan part of the Lesser Caucasus. With the use of modern GIS technologies, analysis of statistical materials, mapping, field research and other methods, the threat of destruction of residential areas has been identified. In addition, based on the principle of basin analysis, using the method of comparative analysis of statistical facts, the influence of mudflows on the territorial organization of economy is studied, on the basis of which economic and geographical conditions are analyzed in detail and the mudflow threat is assessed.

Prototype Scale Evaluation of Non-Newtonian Algorithms in HEC-RAS: Mud and Debris Flow Case Studies of Santa Barbara and Brumadinho

The Santa Barbara post-wildfire debris flows and the Brumadinho tailing-dam failure were two of the most catastrophic flood events of the late 2010s. Both these events carried so much solid-phase material, that classic, clear-water, flood risk approaches cannot replicate them, or forecast other events like them. This case study applied the new non-Newtonian features in HEC-RAS 6.1 to these two events, testing the most widely used flood risk model on the two most common mud and debris flow hazards (post-wildfire floods and mine tailing dam failures). HEC-RAS reproduced the inundation boundaries and the event timing (where available) for both events. The ratio between the largest debris flow clasts and the channel size, parametric trade-offs, the “convex” alluvial plain topography, and the stochasticity introduced by urban infrastructure made the Santa Barbara modeling more difficult and less precise than Brumadinho. Despite these challenges, the results provide prototype scale validation and verification of these new tools in this widely applied flood risk model.

Mudflow hazard in the foothill and mountainous regions of Uzbekistan

The article presents the results of research work on the study of mudflows in the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan and transboundary territories. The relevance of studies of mudflow phenomena is determined by the intensive development of economic and recreational development of mountain and foothill territories, which in the conditions of the Republic of Uzbekistan are subject to mudflow processes that cause material damage to the objects of the national economy and are often accompanied by human casualties. About a thousand active mudflow channels have been counted in the study area, of which over 270 descend into the Fergana Valley. The most mudflow-prone regions in Uzbekistan are: Namangan - 19% of all registered mudflows, Fergana - 16%, Surkhandarya - 13%, Tashkent - 12%, Kashkadarya - 11% and Samarkand - 9%. In general, the Fergana Valley accounts for 41% of the total number of all registered mudflows. A sharp increase in mudflow activity is observed in April and May. During these months, respectively, 25% and 35% of mudflows descended. As a rule, these are mudflows that came down as a result of a large amount of precipitation. The most mudflow-prone regions in Uzbekistan are: Namangan - 19% of all registered mudflows, Fergana - 16%, Surkhandarya - 13%, Tashkent - 12%, Kashkadarya - 11% and Samarkand - 9%. In general, the Fergana Valley accounts for 41% of the total number of all registered mudflows.

Assessment of damage during the formation and passage of mudflows in the Tashkent region

Mountainous and largely foothill areas of the Republic of Uzbekistan are mudflow hazardous. In the Tashkent region, there are two mudflow river basins (dangerous concerning the manifestation of mudflows): the Chirchik river basin and the Akhangaran river basin. Based on the results of long-term observations of the Uzhydromet service, a digital map of the mudflow hazard in the Tashkent region for a century was compiled. The method for determining the damage from the action of mudflows on a specific object consists of determining the equivalent mudflow pressure according to its initial parameters. According to the methodology for assessing damage in the event of a natural emergency, the main parameters of the damaging factors were determined during the passage of a mudflow in the event of intense rainfall. The calculations were performed for two scenarios: 1) with dangerous rainfall with an intensity of 30 mm per day; 2) in case of especially dangerous rainfall with an intensity of 60 mm per day. Based on the calculations performed, the amount of damage to the national economy of the Tashkent region was determined during the passage of a mudflow caused by intense rainfall.

Risk analysis of mudflows in the Central Caucasus

Hazardous natural processes, including mudflows, are changing natural geomorphological processes, mountain landscapes, threatening the safety of the population. Due to climate changes in recent decades in the Caucasus there has been reduction in the area of glaciations, increased mudflow hazard. In the work, the possibility of mudflows in the Central Caucasus based on the interpretation of time-varying satellite images is analyzed. A forecast is given for the development of mudflow processes in connection with the degradation of glaciation.

The Debris-hazardous Areas’ Research Methods (on the Republic of Ingushetia Example)

The research methods of mudflow hazardous areas in the North Caucasus region are determined by the indicators that are priority in the development and study of similar areas. Mudflows require constant updating of their development territories’ maps, as well as the various parameters used to predict the mudflow threats and develop the anti-mudflow measures. The authors of the article present the indicators, values and air regime temperature, amount, composition, intensity, and also the precipitation mode, as well as the size and intensity of the modern glaciation and snow cover melting, the territorial moisture content, the presence of small rivers with large channels slopes and their flood regime. The analysis of the proposed research methods, on the basis of reliable materials and collected as a result of the mudflow phenomena study in the mountainous territory in the Republic of Ingushetia, divides the areas into three categories of mudflow hazard, and presents a medium-scale map of the mudflow hazardous areas in the Republic of Ingushetia at a scale of 1: 500 000.

Analysis of Local Spatial Data Infrastructure to Support Volcanic Mudflow Mitigation along Putih River, Magelang Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia

One of the most devastating disasters in Indonesia was the Mount Merapi eruption in 2010. After the eruption there still exists the secondary hazard of volcanic mudflow, which has caused damage and casualties. Volcanic mudflow is a mixture of pyroclastic material and rainwater, meaning that in the rainy season the area along rivers becomes a high volcanic mudflow hazard, including the area along Putih River in Magelang Regency, Central Java Province. The development of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) plays an important role in disaster management, especially in disaster mitigation efforts. Building an SDI which shares information on spatial conditions in the area along the Putih River could save many lives and reduce the risk from volcanic mudflow. This research was conducted employing interview surveys, field surveys and secondary data collection at government institutions. The results of the analysis have provided a geoportal prototype as an information gateway for the mitigation of volcanic mudflow along the Putih River and the reduction of disaster risk both for the government and community.

The geographical prerequisites for the identification and prevention of dangerous geomorphological processes in the mountain geosystems of the Alpine-Himalayan belt (on the example of the Major Caucasus of Azerbaijan)

Destructive natural phenomena are a serious, sometimes unsolvable, regional and local environmental and socioeconomic problem. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of materials from long-term geomorphological studies in the mountainous areas on the example of the Major Caucasus of Azerbaijan. The dangerous geomorphological processes on the example of the Major Caucasus of Azerbaijan were investigated in detail using large-scale maps, satellite imagery and aerial photography. Geomorphological maps were drawn (map of mudflow hazard and map of landslide hazard in the Azerbaijani part of the Major Caucasus). The research determined the dangerous zones where landslides could cover 65–70% of the total area and outlined the zones and regularities of spread of various types of mudflow origination sites. The analysis of the manifestations of most active (with catastrophic consequences) destructive natural processes and the morphotectonic structure of the studied area showed that the their occurrence and maximum intensity was confined to the weakest plexuses of mountains – intersections of faults and fractures of various directions and orders. A technique for assessing the eco-geomorphological risk to prevent dangerous natural phenomena was offered. The technique is based on the detection of zones with intensive geomorphological processes, which are often not dangerous separately, but could have catastrophic consequences together. The results obtained during the assessment of the effect of natural and man-caused factors on the stability of montane ecosystems may be used to forecast dangerous natural phenomena and to research geodynamical dangerous geomorphological process not only in Azerbaijan, but also in other regions of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. The obtained results can be used to plan and perform economic activities, determine and minimize the hazards and risks of occurrence of dangerous natural phenomena, and forecast such phenomena in the future.

POSSIBILITIES OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS APPLICATION AT PREDICTION OF RAINFALL GENERATED MUDFLOWS

The article considers the compilation of a short-term forecast of mudflow forming sediments using numerical forecasting methods, since this factor is an important condition for the preparation of rainfall mudflow forecasts, it is necessary to determine the degree of accuracy and efficiency of the methodology by which the forecast was made. Accurate and reliable forecasts are the guarantor of increasing the effectiveness of protecting the population. To forecast rainfall, the US Weather Bureau model was used and the results of forecasting rainfall and debris flows of storm origin for Ile-Alatau weather stations are shown. The results of a short-term forecast of precipitation with a lead time of 1 day and with a justification of 83% were also illustrated. For forecasting mudflows using well-known techniques, the accuracy of forecasts for the adopted period was unsatisfactory. This attempt should continue, since the series (daily data for the mudflow hazard period) that were used in this work cover only 2 years