Moving To Opportunity Research Articles

The Long-Term Effects of Neighborhood Disadvantage on Voting Behavior: The “Moving to Opportunity” Experiment

Socioeconomic disadvantage is a major correlate of low political participation. This association is among the most robust findings in political science. However, it is based largely on observational data. The causal effects of early-life disadvantage in particular are even less understood, because long-term data on the political consequences of randomized early-life anti-poverty interventions is nearly nonexistent. We leverage the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment to test the long-term effect of moving out of disadvantaged neighborhoods—and thus out of deep poverty—on turnout. MTO is one of the most ambitious anti-poverty experiments ever implemented in the United States. Although MTO ameliorated children’s poverty long term, we find that, contrary to expectations, the intervention did not increase children’s likelihood of voting later in life. Additional tests show the program did not ameliorate their poverty enough to affect turnout. These findings speak to the complex relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and low political participation.

Estimating Endogenous Effects on Ordinal Outcomes

Abstract We examine the use of instrumental variable (IV) methods to measure the effect of a ceteris paribus change in an endogenous variable on an ordered outcome. Specifically, we use these methods to investigate the effect of neighborhood characteristics on subjective well-being (SWB) among participants in the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing voucher experiment. We find that the estimated positive effect of a decrease in neighborhood poverty on SWB is sensitive to the specification of the first stage auxiliary equation for endogenous neighborhood poverty. Our results highlight the influential role of control function restrictions in complete triangular models.

Do Alcohol Outlets Mediate the Effects of the Moving to Opportunity Experiment on Adolescent Excessive Drinking? A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Housing mobility impacts adolescent alcohol use, and the neighborhood built environment may impact this relationship. Methods: Moving to Opportunity (MTO) was a multi-site, three-arm, household-level experiment. MTO randomly assigned one of three treatment arms (1994–1997) allowing families living in public housing to (1) receive a voucher to be redeemed any neighborhood (2) receive a voucher to be redeemed in a neighborhood with less than 10% poverty (3) remain in public housing (control). MTO decreased girls’ alcohol use, but increased boys’ alcohol use. Treatment groups were pooled because they are similar conceptually and statistically on our primary outcome. Among youth aged 12–19 in 2001–2002 (N = 2829), we estimated controlled direct effects mediation of MTO treatment effects on youth with housing vouchers (N = 1950) vs. controls (N = 879) on past 30-day number of drinks per day on days drank, using gender-stratified Poisson regression. Mediators were density of on- and off-premises alcohol outlets per square mile at the families’ census tract of residence in 1997. Results: Treatment group youth were randomized to live in 1997 census tracts with lower off-premises, but higher on-premises, outlet density. MTO treatment (vs. controls) decreased drinking for girls via alcohol outlet density, but only at higher levels of outlet density. Treatment was 18% more beneficial when girls moved to high density neighborhoods, compared to controls who stayed living in public housing in high density neighborhoods. Conclusion: Additional social processes unmeasured in the current study may play an important role in the alcohol use and other health risks for girls.

Housing mobility protects against alcohol use for children with socioemotional health vulnerabilities: An experimental design.

Neighborhood context may influence alcohol use, but effects may be heterogeneous, and prior evidence is threatened by confounding. We leveraged a housing voucher experiment to test whether housing vouchers' effects on alcohol use differed for families of children with and without socioemotional health or socioeconomic vulnerabilities. In the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) study, low-income families in public housing in five US cities were randomized in 1994 to 1998 to receive one of three treatments: (1) a housing voucher redeemable in a low-poverty neighborhood plus housing counseling, (2) a housing voucher without locational restriction, or (3) no voucher (control). Alcohol use was assessed 10 to 15 years later (2008 to 2010) in youth ages 13 to 20, N=4600, and their mothers, N=3200. Using intention-to-treat covariate-adjusted regression models, we interacted MTO treatment with baseline socioemotional health vulnerabilities, testing modifiers of treatment on alcohol use. We found treatment effect modification by socioemotional factors. For youth, MTO voucher treatment, compared with controls, reduced the odds of ever drinking alcohol if youth had behavior problems (OR=0.26, 95% CI [0.09, 0.72]) or problems at school (OR=0.46, [0.26, 0.82]). MTO low-poverty treatment (vs. controls) also reduced the number of drinks if their health required special medicine/equipment (OR=0.50 [0.32, 0.80]). Yet treatment effects were nonsignificant among youth without socioemotional vulnerabilities. Among mothers of children with learning problems, MTO voucher treatment (vs. controls) reduced past-month drinking (OR=0.69 [0.47, 0.99]), but was harmful otherwise (OR=1.22 [0.99, 1.45]). For low-income adolescents with special needs/socioemotional problems, housing vouchers protect against alcohol use.

Effects of housing vouchers on the long-term exposure to neighbourhood opportunity among low-income families: the moving to opportunity experiment

Tenant-based rental assistance has received much attention as a tool to ameliorate American poverty and income segregation. We examined whether a tenant-based voucher program improves long-term exposure to neighbourhood opportunity overall and across multiple domains—social/economic, educational, and health/environmental—among low-income families with children. We used data from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment (1994–2010) with a 10- to 15-year follow-up period and used an innovative and multidimensional measure of neighbourhood opportunities for children. Compared with controls in public housing, MTO voucher recipients experienced improvement in neighbourhood opportunity overall and across domains during the entire study period, with a larger treatment effect for families in the MTO voucher group who received supplementary housing counselling, than the Section 8 voucher group. Our results also suggests that effects of housing vouchers on neighbourhood opportunity may not be uniform across subgroups. Results from model-based recursive partitioning for neighbourhood opportunity identified several potential effect modifiers for housing vouchers, including study sites, health and developmental problems of household members, and having vehicle access.

Using the Moving to Opportunity Experiment to Investigate the Long-Term Impact of Neighborhoods on Healthcare Use by Specific Clinical Conditions and Type of Service

ABSTRACT We performed a secondary analysis of the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) social experiment to investigate the impact of different types of housing assistance and neighborhood environments on long-term patterns of healthcare use for specific conditions and across different types of healthcare services. MTO participants, who were randomized at baseline, were linked to up to 21 years’ worth of all-payer hospital discharge and Medicaid data. Among the 9,170 children at the time of randomization, those who received a voucher had subsequent hospital admissions rates that were 36% lower for asthma and 30% lower for mental health disorders compared with the control group; rates of psychiatric services, outpatient hospital services, clinic services, and durable medical equipment were also lower among the voucher groups. Findings for adults were not statistically significant. The results suggest that housing policies that reduce neighborhood poverty exposure as a child are associated with lower subsequent healthcare use for specific clinical conditions and types of services.

Evaluating Contradictory Experimental and Nonexperimental Estimates of Neighborhood Effects on Economic Outcomes for Adults

ABSTRACT Although nonexperimental studies find robust neighborhood effects on adults, such findings have been challenged by results from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) residential mobility experiment. Using a within-study comparison design, this article compares experimental and nonexperimental estimates from MTO and a parallel analysis of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Striking similarities were found between nonexperimental estimates based on MTO and PSID. No clear evidence was found that different estimates are related to duration of adult exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods, nonlinear effects of neighborhood conditions, magnitude of the change in neighborhood context, frequency of moves, treatment effect heterogeneity, or measurement, although the uncertainty bands around our estimates were sometimes large. Another possibility is that MTO-induced moves might have been unusually disruptive, but results are inconsistent for that hypothesis. Taken together, the findings suggest that selection bias might account for evidence of neighborhood effects on adult economic outcomes in nonexperimental studies.

Evaluating Contradictory Experimental and Non-Experimental Estimates of Neighborhood Effects on Economic Outcomes for Adults

Although non-experimental studies find robust neighborhood effects on adults, such findings have been challenged by results from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) residential mobility experiment. Using a within-study comparison design, this paper compares experimental and non-experimental estimates from MTO and a parallel analysis of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Striking similarities were found between non-experimental estimates based on MTO and PSID. No clear evidence was found that different estimates are related to duration of adult exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods, non-linear effects of neighborhood conditions, magnitude of the change in neighborhood context, frequency of moves, treatment effect heterogeneity, or measurement, although uncertainty bands around our estimates were sometimes large. One other possibility is that MTO-induced moves might have been unusually disruptive, but results are inconsistent for that hypothesis. Taken together, the findings suggest that selection bias might account for evidence of neighborhood effects on adult economic outcomes in non-experimental studies.

Does the Temporal Pattern of Moving to a Higher-Quality Neighborhood Across a 5-Year Period Predict Psychological Distress Among Adolescents? Results From a Federal Housing Experiment.

Using data from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment (1994-2002), this study examined how a multidimensional measure of neighborhood quality over time influenced adolescent psychological distress, using instrumental variable (IV) analysis. Neighborhood quality was operationalized with the independently validated 19-indicator Child Opportunity Index (COI), linked to MTO family addresses over 4-7 years. We examined whether being randomized to receive a housing subsidy (versus remaining in public housing) predicted neighborhood quality across time. Using IV analysis, we tested whether experimentally induced differences in COI across time predicted psychological distress on the Kessler Screening Scale for Psychological Distress (n=2,829; meanβ =-0.04 points (standard deviation, 1.12)). The MTO voucher treatment improved neighborhood quality for children as compared with in-place controls. A 1-standard-deviation change in COI since baseline predicted a 0.32-point lower psychological distress score for girls (β=-0.32, 95% confidence interval: -0.61, -0.03). Results were comparable but less precisely estimated when neighborhood quality was operationalized as simply average post-random-assignment COI (β=-0.36, 95% confidence interval: -0.74, 0.02). Effect estimates based on a COI excluding poverty and on the most recent COI measure were slightly larger than other operationalizations of neighborhood quality. Improving a multidimensional measure of neighborhood quality led to reductions in low-income girls' psychological distress, and this was estimated with high internal validity using IV methods.

Evidence of Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity: LATEs of Neighborhood Quality

AbstractThis paper estimates neighborhood effects on adult labor market outcomes using the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing mobility experiment. We propose and implement a new strategy for identifying transition-specific effects that exploits identification of the unobserved component of a neighborhood choice model. Estimated local average treatment effects (LATEs) are large, result from moves between the first and second deciles of the national distribution of neighborhood quality, and pertain to a subpopulation of nine percent of program participants.

Using Transportability to Understand Differences in Mediation Mechanisms Across Trial Sites of a Housing Voucher Experiment.

Randomized trials may have different effects in different settings. Moving to Opportunity (MTO), a housing experiment, is one such example. Previously, we examined the extent to which MTO's overall effects on adolescent substance use and mental health outcomes were transportable across the sites to disentangle the contributions of differences in population composition versus differences in contextual factors to site differences. However, to further understand reasons for different site effects, it may be beneficial to examine mediation mechanisms and the degree to which they too are transportable across sites. We used longitudinal data from MTO youth. We examined mediators summarizing aspects of the school environment over the 10-15 year follow-up. Outcomes of past-year substance use, mental health, and risk behavior were assessed at the final timepoint when participants were 10-20 years old. We used doubly robust and efficient substitution estimators to estimate (1) indirect effects by MTO site and (2) transported indirect effects from one site to another. Differences in indirect effect estimates were most pronounced between Chicago and Los Angeles. Using transport estimators to account for differences in baseline covariates, likelihood of using the voucher to move, and mediator distributions partially to fully accounted for site differences in indirect effect estimates in 10 of the 12 pathways examined. Using transport estimators can provide an evidence-based approach for understanding the extent to which differences in compositional factors contribute to differences in indirect effect estimates across sites, and ultimately, to understanding why interventions may have different effects when applied to new populations.

Do Neighborhoods Affect the Credit Market Decisions of Low-Income Borrowers? Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment

Abstract This paper isolates the causal impact of neighborhood environment on the credit outcomes of low-income borrowers by analyzing the participants of the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment. MTO was a unique, large-scale experiment that offered families vouchers to move to better neighborhoods via randomized lottery. We find higher credit scores and use among those required to move to the lowest poverty areas as young children. For those who moved as adults, we find that better neighborhoods lead to a reduction of overdue debts and delinquencies, but only among those given unrestricted neighborhood choice.

Do changes in neighborhood social context mediate the effects of the moving to opportunity experiment on adolescent mental health?

This study investigated whether changes in neighborhood context induced by neighborhood relocation mediated the impact of the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing voucher experiment on adolescent mental health. Mediators included participant-reported neighborhood safety, social control, disorder, and externally-collected neighborhood collective efficacy. For treatment group members, improvement in neighborhood disorder and drug activity partially explained MTO's beneficial effects on girls' distress. Improvement in neighborhood disorder, violent victimization, and informal social control helped counteract MTO's adverse effects on boys' behavioral problems, but not distress. Housing mobility policy targeting neighborhood improvements may improve mental health for adolescent girls, and mitigate harmful effects for boys.

Racial Inequality, Neighborhood Effects, and Moving to Opportunity

Moving to Opportunity (MTO) was a housing mobility program designed to investigate neighborhood effects, the influences of the social and physical environment on human development and well-being. Some of the results from MTO have been interpreted as evidence that neighborhood effects are not as strong as earlier evidence had indicated. This Commentary discusses new research suggesting that neighborhood effects are, on the contrary, as strong and policy relevant as suspected before the experiment. This Commentary also discusses why the interpretation of the MTO data is important: If neighborhood effects drive outcomes, then addressing racial inequality requires concerted efforts beyond ending racial discrimination.

Moving to Wealthier Neighborhoods Does Not Decrease Emergency Department Use

In the 1990s, the Department of Housing and Urban Development deployed the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) program to test the effects of neighborhood

Built environment exposures of adults in the moving to opportunity experiment

This article describes environmental exposures of adult participants in the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) for Fair Housing experiment over a four to seven year period from baseline to the interim evaluation. The MTO experiment randomized participants living in public housing or private assisted housing at baseline into experimental and control groups and provided a housing voucher for experimental group participants to move to neighbourhoods with less than 10% of the population below the poverty line. However, few studies have examined how this move affected exposures to health promoting environments. We used data on residential locations of MTO participants and archival data on the built and food environment to construct environmental exposure variables. MTO participants in the experimental and Section 8 groups lived in neighbourhoods with higher food prices, less high intensity development and more open space relative to the control group. The findings suggest that housing policies can have potential health consequences by altering health-related environmental exposures.

Effects of a federal housing voucher experiment on adolescent binge drinking: a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

To test how a housing voucher generating residential mobility to lower-poverty neighborhoods, compared with public housing controls, influenced adolescent binge drinking, and whether gender modified effects. A multi-site household-level three-arm randomized trial of a housing intervention executed 1994-98, evaluated 2001-02. Five US cities: Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Chicago, IL; Los Angeles, CA; and New York, NY. A total of 3537 adolescents in 4248 low-income eligible families were randomized; 2829 adolescents were analyzed at the interim evaluation (1950 in treatment; 879 in the control group). Attrition bias was accounted for with a 3-in-10 oversampling of hard-to-reach participants (effective response rate: 89%). The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) trial randomized volunteer low-income families in public housing to receive (1) rental subsidies redeemable in neighborhoods with <10% tract poverty plus housing counseling, (2) unrestricted Section 8 rental subsidies or (3) to remain in public housing. We pooled the subsidy ('treatment') groups because they were conceptually similar and there was no evidence of statistical differences between groups on binge drinking. Primary outcome: past month binge drinking (five or more drinks in one sitting). Adolescent binge drinking prevalence was 3.9% for treatment and 3.2% for control. The intention-to-treat (ITT) main effect of subsidy treatment (versus control) on binge drinking was non-significant, but treatment effects were different for girls and boys (treatment-gender interaction P=0.002). MTO treatment reduced girls' binge drinking [odds ratio (OR)=0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.24-0.96, P=0.037], but increased boys' binge drinking (OR=2.37, 95% CI=1.13-4.97, P=0.023), compared with controls. Results were similar for secondary alcohol outcomes. Instrumental variable (IV) results adjusting for treatment compliance were comparable with ITT, but larger. A housing subsidy treatment that enables low-income families to move from public to private housing appears to lessen girls' binge drinking but increases boys' binge drinking, compared with controls.

The price of admission: does moving to a low-poverty neighborhood increase discriminatory experiences and influence mental health?

The Moving to Opportunity (MTO) study is typically interpreted as a trial of changes in neighborhood poverty. However, the program may have also increased exposure to housing discrimination. Few prior studies have tested whether interpersonal and institutional forms of discrimination may have offsetting effects on mental health, particularly using intervention designs. We evaluated the effects of MTO, which randomized public housing residents in 5 cities to rental vouchers, or to in-place controls (N = 4248, 1997-2002), whichgeneratedvariationon neighborhood poverty (% of residents in poverty) and encounters with housing discrimination. Using instrumental variable analysis (IV), we derived two-stage least squares IV estimates of effects of neighborhood poverty and housing discrimination on adult psychological distress and major depressive disorder (MDD). Randomization to voucher group vs. control simultaneously decreased neighborhood % poverty and increased exposure to housing discrimination. Higher neighborhood % poverty was associated with increased psychological distress [BIV = 0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.03, 0.69] and MDD (BIV = 0.12, 95% CI - 0.005, 0.25). Effects of housing discrimination on mental health were harmful, but imprecise (distress BIV = 1.58, 95% CI - 0.83, 3.99; MDD BIV = 0.57, 95% CI - 0.43, 1.56). Because neighborhood poverty and housing discrimination had offsetting effects, omitting either mechanism from the IV model substantially biased the estimated effect of the other towards the null. Neighborhood poverty mediated MTO treatment on adult mental health, suggesting that greater neighborhood poverty contributes to mental health problems. Yet housing discrimination-mental health findings were inconclusive. Effects of neighborhood poverty on health may be underestimated when failing to account for discrimination.

Mediation of Neighborhood Effects on Adolescent Substance Use by the School and Peer Environments.

Evidence suggests that aspects of the neighborhood environment may influence risk of problematic drug use among adolescents. Our objective was to examine mediating roles of aspects of the school and peer environments on the effect of receiving a Section 8 housing voucher and using it to move out of public housing on adolescent substance use outcomes. We used data from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) experiment that randomized receipt of a Section 8 housing voucher. Hypothesized mediators included school climate, safety, peer drug use, and participation in an after-school sport or club. We applied a doubly robust, semiparametric estimator to longitudinal MTO data to estimate stochastic direct and indirect effects of randomization on cigarette use, marijuana use, and problematic drug use. Stochastic direct and indirect effects differ from natural direct and indirect effects in that they do not require assuming no posttreatment confounder of the mediator-outcome relationship. Such an assumption would be at odds with any causal model that reflects an intervention affecting a mediator and outcome through adherence to treatment assignment. Having friends who use drugs and involvement in after-school sports or clubs partially mediated the effect of housing voucher receipt on adolescent substance use (e.g., stochastic indirect effect 0.45% [95% confidence interval: 0.12%, 0.79%] for having friends who use drugs and 0.04% [95% confidence interval: -0.02%, 0.10%] for involvement in after-school sports or clubs mediating the relationship between housing voucher receipt and marijuana use among boys). However, these mediating effects were small, contributing only fractions of a percent to the effect of voucher receipt on probability of substance use. No school environment variables were mediators. Measured school- and peer-environment variables played little role in mediating the effect of housing voucher receipt on subsequent adolescent substance use.

Composition or Context: Using Transportability to Understand Drivers of Site Differences in a Large-scale Housing Experiment.

The Moving To Opportunity (MTO) experiment manipulated neighborhood context by randomly assigning housing vouchers to volunteers living in public housing to use to move to lower poverty neighborhoods in five US cities. This random assignment overcomes confounding limitations that challenge other neighborhood studies. However, differences in MTO's effects across the five cities have been largely ignored. Such differences could be due to population composition (e.g., differences in the racial/ethnic distribution) or to context (e.g., differences in the economy). Using a nonparametric omnibus test and a multiply robust, semiparametric estimator for transportability, we assessed the extent to which differences in individual-level compositional characteristics that may act as effect modifiers can account for differences in MTO's effects across sites. We examined MTO's effects on marijuana use, behavioral problems, major depressive disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder among black and Latino adolescent males, where housing voucher receipt was harmful for health in some sites but beneficial in others. Comparing point estimates, differences in composition partially explained site differences in MTO effects on marijuana use and behavioral problems but did not explain site differences for major depressive disorder or generalized anxiety disorder. Our findings provide quantitative, rigorous evidence for the importance of context or unmeasured individual-level compositional variables in modifying MTO's effects.