Mortgage Origination Research Articles

Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation

ABSTRACTWe study the impact of rising mortgage rates on mobility and labor reallocation. Using individual‐level credit record data and variation in the timing of mortgage origination, we show that a 1 percentage point decline in the difference between mortgage rates locked in at origination and current rates reduces moving by 9% overall and 16% between 2022 and 2024, and this relationship is asymmetric. Mortgage lock‐in also dampens flows in and out of self‐employment and the responsiveness to shocks to nearby employment opportunities that require moving, measured as wage growth within a 50‐ to 150‐mile ring and instrumented with a shift‐share instrument.

Machine Learning for Enhancing Mortgage Origination Processes: Streamlining and Improving Efficiency

Machine Learning for Enhancing Mortgage Origination Processes: Streamlining and Improving Efficiency

Mortgage Originator Pipeline Management

Mortgage Originator Pipeline Management

A stochastic loss given default model of Hungarian residential mortgages

AbstractThe paper analyses the Loss Given Default (LGD) rates of residential mortgages, using a model based on stochastic collateral value. The implementation of the model is based on exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes fitted to the Hungarian regions' house price indices. According to the model results, in case of a mortgage with a 80% loan-to-value ratio at origination, the expected LGD is around 30–40%, depending on the region. The highest LGD rates are estimated for villages, while the lowest rates are expected in Budapest and cities in the middle of the country. The range of the regional differences can reach 7 percentage points. According to the LGD Risk index based on the aggregated model, the LGD risk profile of recently issued mortgages has improved significantly since 2009 in Hungary.Due to the strong negative relation between the house prices and mortgage default rates, the expected return on defaulted collateral value tends to be low. The results could be relevant for credit institutions in their mortgage origination decisions and enhance analysis of lending processes and the associated risks.

The Time‐Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market

ABSTRACTWe introduce a new measure of the price charged by financial intermediaries for connecting mortgage borrowers with capital market investors. Based on administrative lender pricing data, we document that the price of intermediation reacts strongly to variation in demand, reflecting capacity constraints of mortgage originators. This positive comovement of price with quantity reduced the pass‐through of quantitative easing. We also find a notable upward trend in this price between 2008 and 2014, likely due to increased legal and regulatory burden in the mortgage market. The trend led to an implicit cost to borrowers of nearly $100 billion over this period.

Comparative dynamics of housing finance: A cross-country analysis

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of housing finance markets in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany, focusing on their responses to market changes and significant external shocks like the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. It aims to clarify the complex relationship between market dynamics and housing finance structures, as well as the impact of major market shocks on these systems. The study uncovers subtle differences in responses, underscored by governmental interventions, levels of securitisation, and diverse funding models of mortgage originators. It also highlights how regulatory interventions influence variations across markets in specific circumstances such as the GFC and the pandemic. This research contributes valuable insights into the adaptability and resilience of housing finance systems against external shocks, enhancing our understanding of their strengths and vulnerabilities.

Banking for the Culture: Black-owned banks as cultural assets during the subprime lending boom

Today, black-owned banks are important financial resources challenging economic exclusion. Nevertheless, they do not associate strongly with building black wealth. Some scholars argue this signals black-owned banks are ornamental, or ineffective responses to legacies of economic exclusion in black segregated neighborhoods. To engage these critiques, I draw on the dialectical theoretical frames of cultural assets and structural deficits to examine the effectiveness of black-owned banks during the subprime lending boom—a period when bank practices exploiting a history of economic exclusion in black segregated neighborhoods intensify. Specifically, I analyze administrative data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to assess whether black-owned banks associate with access to mortgage credit when the subprime lending boom peaks in 2006. Using propensity score matching with inverse probability weighting, I find black-owned banks do not associate with mortgage originations in 2006; but neighborhoods with black-owned banks receive fewer subprime mortgage loans, compared to matched ones without them. As such, black-owned banks appear to effectively shield black segregated neighborhoods from the time period's predation. Overall, findings imply black-owned banks support protective credit markets during periods of intensifying economic exclusion and exploitation.

The Valuation at Origination of Mortgages with Full Prepayment and Default Risks

The Valuation at Origination of Mortgages with Full Prepayment and Default Risks

Bank Supervision and Organizational Capital: The Case of Minority Lending

ABSTRACTWe investigate whether improvements in banks' organizational capital and control systems facilitate increased loan origination to minority borrowers. We focus on bank supervisors' enforcement decisions and orders (EDOs) against banks and hypothesize that EDO‐imposed improvements in loan policies, internal governance, and employee training mitigate deficiencies in credit assessments and lending decisions that previously disadvantaged minority borrowers. We find that mortgage origination to minority borrowers increases following the resolution of EDOs, and more so for banks with stricter supervisors or more severe EDOs. Using a semisupervised machine learning method to analyze the text of EDOs, we find that such increases are higher for EDOs specifying revisions of loan policies, implementation of formal internal governance procedures, or more employee training. Overall, we find that EDO‐driven improvements in organizational capital generate unintended, positive social externalities that enhance access to credit for minority borrowers.

The impact of subsidies on house prices in Mexico's mortgage market for low-income households 2008–2019

We estimate the effect of Mexico's primary house-purchase subsidy program for low-income individuals on house prices between 2008 and 2019, using administrative records from Infonavit, the nation's largest mortgage originator. We employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that leverages the existence of a threshold on the borrower's income that determined access to the subsidy program to identify the effect on house prices. Our estimations yield statistically significant evidence that the subsidy led to an average increase in house prices of 863 US dollars for the program participants at the threshold during those years. This effect represents 28.9 % of the average subsidy amount and 5.4 % of the average house price. The estimations control for individual, house, and location characteristics. Furthermore, we find evidence that when an intermediary is involved in the mortgage application process, there is a statistically significant price difference of 867 dollars for subsidy recipients. On the contrary, this impact disappears when no external broker is involved. These intermediaries are primarily real estate developers that build and sell the houses associated with the mortgages. These findings shed light on how market structure could have nonnegligible impacts on equilibrium outcomes and on the welfare effects of economic policy.

What drives screening incentives in nonbank mortgage originators?

AbstractNonbank mortgage originators, which operate through the originate‐to‐distribute (OTD) model, account for more than half of all the mortgage origination in the United States. However, less is known about which factors drive the quality of mortgage originations through nonbanks. I show that an exogenous shock that reduced collateral risk for funding intermediaries of nonbank mortgage originators led to a greater issuance of riskier mortgages that culminated in 10–30% higher ex post defaults. These results show how the quality of mortgage origination in the OTD model of nonbanks is affected by the collateral risk borne by their funding intermediaries. Overall, the results highlight funding intermediaries' monitoring incentives as one of the factors that drive the quality of mortgage originations through nonbanks.

Owner‐occupancy fraud and mortgage performance

AbstractWe identify occupancy fraud—borrowers who misrepresent their occupancy status as owner‐occupants rather than investors—in residential mortgage originations. Unlike previous work, we show that fraud was prevalent in originations not just during the housing bubble but also persists through more recent times. We also demonstrate that fraud is broad‐based and appears in government‐sponsored enterprise and bank portfolio loans, not just in private securitization; these fraudulent borrowers make up one third of the effective investor population. Occupancy frauds obtain credit at lower interest rates, suggesting a motivation for undertaking fraud. These fraudulent borrowers perform substantially worse than similar declared investors, defaulting at a 75% higher rate. We also provide evidence consistent with fraudulent borrowers’ defaults being more “strategic,” suggesting that this population poses a risk in the face of declining house prices.

Recourse restrictions and judicial foreclosures: Effects of mortgage law on loan price and collateralization

Borrower-friendly laws, such as recourse restrictions and judicial foreclosures, impose higher costs and risks to lenders. Yet, there is little evidence on how lenders transfer them to borrowers at the mortgage origination. By exploiting the mortgage law heterogeneity across U.S. states, I show that recourse restrictions trigger a collateral channel, through which lenders require a 1.6 to 1.9 percentage points lower loan-to-value ratio to compensate for worse recovery opportunities and respective higher expected loss. This effect holds both before and after the Great Recession, and is robust to a regression discontinuity design approach. I also find that lenders do not penalize strategic defaults when recourse is not allowed. Regarding the impact of judicial requirements, the findings are mixed.

Serious Mortgage Arrears among Immigrant Descendant and Native Participants in a Low-Income Public Starter Mortgage Program: Evidence from Norway

Although low-income homeownership programs serving vulnerable families at the lower end of the income distribution have been the focus of housing policy in many countries over the past 50 years, little is known about the post-origination experiences of immigrant families participating in these programs. Notably absent from the extant literature are studies examining the sustainability of homeownership among immigrant homebuyers and their susceptibility to falling behind on payments and experiencing mortgage defaults, evictions, or short sales. Utilizing data from 8263 families participating in Norway’s Starter Mortgage Program (Startlån) during the first three calendar years after mortgage origination, we examine the extent to which serious mortgage arrears varies by immigrant background. Two primary questions shape our research: (1) What is the incidence of serious mortgage arrears among Western, Eastern European, and non-Western immigrant homeowners relative to ethnic Norwegians participating in a public low-income homeownership program? and (2) What pre- and post-origination characteristics of applicants and households, mortgage terms at the time of origination, and experiences of household financial vulnerability or economic shocks predict heterogeneity in serious mortgage arrears by immigrant backgrounds? We found that 6.1% of ethnic Norwegian, 6.2% of Western, 4.9% of non-Western, and 3.2% of Eastern European immigrant homeowners participating in the Starter Mortgage Program were in serious mortgage arrears at least once during the first three calendar years after mortgage origination. Results from our negative binomial regression analyses suggest that program participants who were sole owners, with larger families, and higher debt were more likely to experience serious mortgage arrears; these effects were accentuated for ethnic Norwegians. Additionally, mortgage terms at the time of origination produced differential effects by immigrant background. Compared to Western and Eastern European immigrant homeowners, ethnic Norwegians were more likely to have experienced serious mortgage arrears if they purchased a single-family home, had larger LTV and DTI ratios, or if the Startlån share of their mortgages was higher. Non-Western immigrant mortgagors were more likely to make late mortgage payments if they had larger LTV ratios, interest-only mortgage servicing, or if they were more reliant on Startlån funds to finance their mortgages; however, this risk was reduced if they had fixed-rate mortgages. Financial vulnerability in terms of higher debt or fewer assets also increased the risk of serious mortgage arrears for ethnic Norwegians and non-Western immigrant homeowners, while increases in real wealth reduced that risk for all immigrant mortgagor groups.

Hidden Financial Costs of the Opioid Crisis: Evidence from Mortgage Originations

Hidden Financial Costs of the Opioid Crisis: Evidence from Mortgage Originations

Enhancing Data Security in Mortgage Origination: A Cybersecurity Evaluation of Email and SMS Protocols

Enhancing Data Security in Mortgage Origination: A Cybersecurity Evaluation of Email and SMS Protocols

A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSET TRANSFERS

The processes used to transfer immovable property from a seller to a buyer in South Africa are outdated and not digitised. Paper-based documents increase the risk of fraud and misrepresentation. This study considered the implementation of a cloud-based centralised database for property supply chain partners to enhance transparency, turnaround times, and security while minimising risks and costs. Digitalised property processes would result in title deeds’ dematerialisation and not merely the automation of the paper-based system. This qualitative study was exploratory, and semi-structured interviews were conducted with role-players involved with property transfers in South Africa. These included the South African Reserve Bank, the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, the Law Society of South Africa, mortgage originators, The Banking Association, the Department of Home Affairs, the Registrar of each Deeds Office, the Surveyor General’s office, municipalities, software companies, National Treasury, South Africa’s Central Securities Depository (Strate Ltd), and the Tshwane Mettropolitan Municipal Council. Keywords: Supply chain, Supply chain management, Land administration, Risk management, Payments systems, Information technology, Records management, Dematerialisation

The Impact of Collateral Value on Mortgage Originations

The Impact of Collateral Value on Mortgage Originations

Transforming the Title Industry: Exploring the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Generative AI in Mortgage Origination

This paper explores the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Generative AI in reshaping the title industry, particularly in mortgage origination. By analyzing historical challenges, including the subprime mortgage crisis and the inefficiencies of traditional title systems, juxtaposed with modern AI-driven solutions, we highlight the paradigm shift towards technology-centric operations. We examine AI's role in addressing issues such as lost chains of title, complex legal frameworks, and outdated land title recording practices. The research emphasizes AI's capacity for streamlining processes, enhancing accuracy in title searches, and mitigating fraud risks. This study not only delves into AI's operational impact but also considers legal, ethical, and data security implications, underscoring the need for balanced and informed integration of AI technologies in the title industry. The findings suggest a future where AI and Generative AI fundamentally alter traditional practices, offering increased efficiency, reliability, and transparency in mortgage origination processes.

Environmental reputation and bank liquidity: Evidence from climate transition

AbstractThis study empirically investigates how a bank's nonfinancial signals of environmental reputation affect its deposits and credit provision in US counties with severe climate transition risks. We find that banks with higher reputational risks associated with environmental issues tend to experience declining deposits in counties exposed to severe climate change risks. Banks with a poor environmental reputation also reduce mortgage origination in such counties and diminish liquidity creation if they have high deposit shares in counties sensitive to climate transition. This study suggests that a bank's reputation regarding environmental, social and governance practices is an important underlying cause of bank liquidity in areas sensitive to climate change.