Mortality Of COVID-19 Pandemic Research Articles

Monitoring of three-phase variations in the mortality of COVID-19 pandemic using control charts: where does Pakistan stand?

BackgroundAt the end of December 2019, the world in general and Wuhan, the industrial hub of China, in particular, experienced the COVID-19 pandemic. Massive increment of cases and deaths occurred in China and 209 countries in Europe, America, Australia, Asia and Pakistan. Pakistan was first hit by COVID-19 when a case was reported in Karachi on 26 February 2020. Several methods were presented to model the death rate due to the COVID-19 pandemic and to forecast the pinnacle of reported deaths. Still, these methods were not used in identifying the first day when Pakistan enters or exits the early exponential growth phase.ObjectiveThe present study intends to monitor variations in deaths and identify the growth phases such as pre-growth, growth, and post-growth phases in Pakistan due to the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsNew approaches are needed that display the death patterns and signal an alarming situation so that corrective actions can be taken before the condition worsens. To meet this purpose, secondary data on daily reported deaths in Pakistan due to the COVID-19 pandemic have been considered. The n}{} c and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts have been used for monitoring variations.ResultsThe n}{} c-chart shows that Pakistan switches from the pre-growth to the growth phase on 31 March 2020. The EWMA chart demonstrates that Pakistan remains in the growth phase from 31 March 2020 to 17 August 2020, with some indications signaling a decrease in deaths. It is found that Pakistan moved to a post-growth phase for a brief period from 27 July 2020 to 28 July 2020. Pakistan switches to re-growth phase with an alarm on 31/7/2020, right after the short-term post-growth phase. The number of deaths starts decreasing in August in that Pakistan may approach the post-growth phase shortly.ConclusionThis amalgamation of control charts illustrates a systematic implementation of the charts for government leaders and forefront medical teams to facilitate the rapid detection of daily reported deaths due to COVID-19. Besides government and public health officials, it is also the public’s responsibility to follow the enforced standard operating procedures as a temporary remedy of this pandemic in ensuring public safety while awaiting a suitable vaccine to be discovered.

Impact of weather conditions on incidence and mortality of COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.

The weather-related conditions change the ecosystem and pose a threat to social, economic and environmental development. It creates unprecedented or unanticipated human health problems in various places or times of the year. Africa is the world's second largest and most populous continent and has relatively changeable weather conditions. The present study aims to investigate the impact of weather conditions, heat and humidity on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 pandemic in various regions of Africa. In this study, 16 highly populated countries from North, South, East, West, and Central African regions were selected. The data on COVID-19 pandemic including daily new cases and new deaths were recorded from World Health Organization. The daily temperature and humidity figures were obtained from the weather web "Time and Date". The daily cases, deaths, temperature and humidity were recorded from the date of appearance of first case of "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)" in the African region, from Feb 14 to August 2, 2020. In African countries, the daily basis mean temperature from Feb 14, 2020 to August 2, 2020 was 26.16±0.12°C, and humidity was 57.41±0.38%. The overall results revealed a significant inverse correlation between humidity and the number of cases (r= -0.192, p<0.001) and deaths (r= -0.213, p<0.001). Similarly, a significant inverse correlation was found between temperature and the number of cases (r= -0.25, p<0.001) and deaths (r=-0.18, p<0.001). Furthermore, the regression results showed that with 1% increase in humidity the number of cases and deaths was significantly reduced by 3.6% and 3.7% respectively. Congruently, with 1°C increase in temperature, the number of cases and deaths was also significantly reduced by 15.1% and 10.5%, respectively. Increase in relative humidity and temperature was associated with a decrease in the number of daily cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic in various African countries. The study findings on weather events and COVID-19 pandemic have an impact at African regional levels to project the incidence and mortality trends with regional weather events which will enhance public health readiness and assist in planning to fight against this pandemic.

Potential role of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination in COVID-19 pandemic mortality: Epidemiological and Immunological aspects.

SARS-CoV-2 had already killed more than 400,000 patients around the world according to data on 7 June 2020. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is developed from live-attenuated Mycobacterium bovis, which is a microorganism found in a cow. Discovered by Dr. Albert Calmette and Camille Guérin since 1921, the BCG has served as a protection against tuberculosis and its complications. It is noticeable that countries which use mandatory BCG vaccination approach had lower COVID-19 infection and death rate. Current review aims to clarify this issue through epidemiological illustration of correlation between national BCG immunization and COVID-19 mortality, in addition to biological background of BCG-induced immunity Epidemiological data shows that universal BCG policy countries have lower median mortality rate compare to countries with past universal BCG policy and non-mass immunization BCG. (18 May 2020). Still, the links between BCG vaccination and better COVID-19 situation in certain countries are unclear, and more data on actual infection rate using SAR-CoV-2 antibody testing in large population sample is crucial for disease spreading comparison. Two immunological mechanisms, heterologous effects of adaptive immunity and trained innate immunity which induced by BCG vaccination, may explain host tolerance against COVID-19 infection, however, there is no direct evidence to support this biological background. Clinical trials related to BCG vaccination against COVID-19 are under investigation. Without a strong evidence, BCG must not be recommended for COVID-19 prevention, although, this should not be absolute contraindication. Risk of local and systemic complications from the vaccine should be informed to individual, who request BCG immunization.