Mortality In Acute Pancreatitis Patients Research Articles

Can CONUT and PNI Scores Predict Necrotizing Pancreatitis in Acute Pancreatitis Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department?

Background and Objectives: Acute pancreatitis, characterized by pancreatic inflammation, poses significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, with varied etiologies including gallstones, alcohol, and certain medications. Necrotizing pancreatitis represents a severe form of parenchymal damage with considerable impact on patient quality of life. Early identification of necrotizing pancreatitis is crucial for timely intervention and improved outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the usability of CONUT and PNI scores as prognostic indicators. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study involving patients presenting to the emergency department with acute pancreatitis between January 2020 and October 2023. The Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score and Prognostic Nutrition Index (PNI) were calculated from serum biomarkers to assess nutritional status. Patients were categorized into necrotizing and nonnecrotizing pancreatitis groups, and the utility of CONUT and PNI scores in predicting necrotizing pancreatitis was evaluated. Results: A total of 339 patients were included, with 8.26% diagnosed with necrotizing pancreatitis. CONUT and PNI scores significantly differed between necrotizing and nonnecrotizing groups, with higher CONUT scores and lower PNI scores observed in the necrotizing group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed significant predictive value of CONUT and PNI scores for necrotizing pancreatitis, with cutoff values of >5 and ≤34, respectively. Conclusions: CONUT and PNI scores demonstrate promise in predicting necrotizing pancreatitis in patients admitted to the emergency department with acute pancreatitis. Additionally, these scores may serve as prognostic indicators for mortality in acute pancreatitis patients. Early identification using CONUT and PNI scores could facilitate timely intervention, potentially reducing mortality and morbidity in this patient population.

Risk score to predict inpatient mortality of acute pancreatitis patients admitted to the intensive care unit

Background/ObjectivesPredicting inpatient mortality for acute pancreatitis (AP) patients in the ICU is crucial for optimal treatment planning. This study aims to develop a concise risk score model for this purpose, enhancing the predictability and management of AP in ICU settings. MethodsWe included 380 patients in our training set. Twenty-seven variables were retrospectively collected, and predictive variables were selected using LASSO penalized regression and refined through backward elimination multivariate models. Effect sizes were used to create the final model to predict 7 and 30-day mortality among AP patients admitted to the ICU. ResultsOf 380 patients, the mortality rate was 23.2%. The final model included five predictors: INR, Albumin, Lactic Acid, BUN, and Bilirubin. The 5-fold cross-validated mean AUC was 0.93 (SD: 0.048) for 7-day mortality and 0.84 (SD: 0.033) for 30-day mortality, with a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 74%. The risk score outperformed BISAP (AUC: 0.60) and APACHE-II (AUC: 0.76) in predicting mortality. ConclusionOur model offers a convenient tool using commonly available laboratory results to predict mortality among AP patients, with potential applicability in both ICU settings.

Glycaemic status, length of stay and mortality in acute pancreatitis patients admitted to intensive care

Glycaemic status, length of stay and mortality in acute pancreatitis patients admitted to intensive care

Hyponatremia Is Associated with Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis Patients.

Disorders of serum sodium are common among general patients and are associated with poor outcomes. The prognostic value of serum sodium disorders in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) has not been studied. We conducted this retrospective study to explore the association between serum sodium levels and the outcomes of patients with AP. Patients with AP from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) were screened for this study. The laboratory variables, including serum sodium levels, were obtained by analyzing the first blood sample on the first day after admission. Univariate logistic regression was performed to discover potential factors for mortality of AP. The unadjusted and adjusted association between serum sodium level and mortality of AP was shown by the restricted cubic spline (RCS). The categorical cutoff for the detrimental effect of serum sodium level on the prognosis of AP was also confirmed by stepwise logistic regression after adjusting for con-founding effects of significant factors in the univariate logistic regression. A total of 869 patients with AP in the MIMIC-III were included with a mortality of 13.1%. Unadjusted logistic regression showed that age (p < 0.001), simplified acute physiological score (SAPS) (p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.001), hemoglobin (p = 0.040), serum creatinine (p = 0.046), and serum phosphorus (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the mortality of AP. The RCS showed that the serum sodium level was negatively and linearly associated with mortality of AP after adjusting for confounding effects of significant factors in the univariate logistic regression. Serum sodium < 133mmol/L, which indicated hyponatremia, was significantly correlated with a higher mortality risk than serum sodium ≥ 133mmol/L (p = 0.013). Hyponatremia is widely developed among patients with AP and correlates with a higher mortality risk of AP. Physicians should pay more attention to managing patients with AP with hyponatremia.

The impact of skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine on nosocomial deterioration and short-term prognosis in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective observational study.

To investigate the impact of the third lumbar skeletal muscle index (L3-SMI) assessed by CT on the in-hospital severity and short-term prognosis of acute pancreatitis. A total of 224 patients with severe acute pancreatitis admitted to Yantaishan Hospital from January 2021 to June 2022 were selected as the subjects. Based on the in-hospital treatment outcomes, they were divided into a mortality group of 59 cases as well as a survival group of 165 cases. Upon admission, general information such as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, along with the abdominal CT images of each patient, were analyzed. The L3-SMI was calculated, and the Modified CT Severity Index (MCTSI) and Balthazar CT grade were used to assess the severity of in-hospital complications of acute pancreatitis. The evaluation value of L3-SMI for the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis was analyzed, as well as the factors influencing the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis. No statistically significant differences in gender, age, BMI, etiology, duration of anti-inflammatory drug use, and proportion of surgical patients between the survival and mortality groups were observed. But the mortality group showed higher proportions of patients with an elevated APACHE II score upon admission, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy, compared to the survival group, with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the mortality group had higher MCTSI scores (6.42 ± 0.69) and Balthazar CT grades (3.78 ± 0.45) than the survival group, with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). The mortality group also had a lower L3-SMI (39.68 ± 3.25) compared to the survival group (42.71 ± 4.28), with statistically significant differences (P < 0.001). L3-SMI exhibited a negative correlation with MCTSI scores and Balthazar CT grades (r = -0.889, -0.790, P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis, with mortality of acute pancreatitis patients as the dependent variable and MCTSI scores, Balthazar CT grades, L3-SMI, APACHE II score upon admission, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy as independent variables, revealed that MCTSI scores and L3-SMI were risk factors for mortality in acute pancreatitis patients (P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis using the same variables confirmed that all these factors were risk factors for mortality in acute pancreatitis patients. This study confirmed that diagnosing muscle depletion using L3-SMI is a valuable radiological parameter for predicting in-hospital severity and short-term prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Incidence and prognostic role of pleural effusion in patients with acute pancreatitis: a meta-analysis

BackgroundPleural effusion (PE) is reported as a common complication in acute pancreatitis (AP), while the incidence of PE in AP varies widely among studies, and the association between PE and mortality is not clear. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the pooled incidence of PE in patients with AP and to evaluate the influence of PE on mortality through a meta-analysis.MethodSix databases (PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, Cochrane, Scopus, and OVID) were searched thoroughly for relevant studies. Data were extracted, and Stata SE 16.0 software was applied to compute the pooled incidence of PE and assess the association between PE and mortality, taking the risk ratio (RR) as the effect size.ResultsThirty-five articles involving 7,675 patients with AP were eventually included in this meta-analysis. The pooled incidence of PE was 34% (95% CI: 28%-39%), with significant heterogeneity among studies (I2=96.7%). Further analysis revealed that the pooled incidence of unilateral and small PE occupied 49% (95% CI: 21%-77%) and 59% (95% CI: 38%-81%) of AP patients complicated by PE, respectively. The subgroup analysis revealed that “region” and “examination method” may contribute to heterogeneity. PE may be associated with increased mortality in AP patients (RR 3.99, 95% CI: 1.73-9.2).ConclusionThis study suggested that PE is a common complication with high pooled incidence and that PE may be associated with increased mortality in AP patients. More studies should be performed to validate our findings.

Prognostic value of C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disorder and although most of the cases are mild, the mortality risk is high when it comes to severe AP. It is therefore important to determine the severity of AP as early as possible. This review aimed to determine the prognostic value of C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CRP/alb ratio) in patients with AP. Methods: We performed a systematic search on the electronic databases PubMed, Science Direct, and Cochrane Library up to January 2023. Studies reporting CRP/alb ratio on admission and its association with severity or mortality in AP patients were included. We calculated pooled mean difference (MD) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. Quality assessment of the included studies was appraised using a Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Results: A total of six studies comprising 2244 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Severe AP had higher CRP/alb ratio on admission than mild-moderate AP (pooled MD: 3.59; 95% CI: 2.51-4.68; p<0.00001). CRP/alb ratio was also significantly higher on non-survivor AP patients compared to survivor AP patients (pooled MD: 2.12; 95% CI: 0.43-3.8; p < 0.01). Conclusion: High CRP/alb ratio can be used as an early predictor of poor prognosis in patients with AP.

Prognostic role of C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disorder and although most of the cases are mild, the mortality risk is high when it comes to severe AP. It is therefore important to determine the severity of AP as early as possible. This review aimed to determine the prognostic value of C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CRP/alb ratio) in patients with AP. Methods: We performed a systematic search on the electronic databases PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar up to January 2023. Studies reporting CRP/alb ratio on admission and its association with severity or mortality in AP patients were included. We calculated pooled mean difference (MD) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. Quality assessment of the included studies was appraised using a Newcastle–Ottawa scale. Results: A total of six studies comprising 2244 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Severe AP had higher CRP/alb ratio on admission than mild-moderate AP (pooled MD: 3.59; 95% CI: 2.51-4.68; p&lt;0.00001). CRP/alb ratio was also significantly higher on non-survivor AP patients compared to survivor AP patients (pooled MD: 2.12; 95% CI: 0.43-3.8; p &lt; 0.01). Conclusion: High CRP/alb ratio can be used as an early predictor of poor prognosis in patients with AP.

Impact of comorbidities on hospital mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis: a population-based study of 110,021 patients

BackgroundThe impact of pre-existing comorbidities on acute pancreatitis (AP) mortality is not clearly defined. Our study aims to determine the trend in AP hospital mortality and the role of comorbidities as a predictor of hospital mortality.MethodsWe analyzed patients aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with AP diagnosis between 2016 and 2019. The data have been extracted from the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database of the Spanish Ministry of Health. We performed a univariate and multivariable analysis of the association of age, sex, and comorbidities with hospital mortality in patients with AP. The role of the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices as predictors of mortality was evaluated.ResultsA total of 110,021 patients diagnosed with AP were hospitalized during the analyzed period. Hospital mortality was 3.8%, with a progressive decrease observed in the years evaluated. In multivariable analysis, age ≥ 65 years (OR: 4.11, p < 0.001), heart disease (OR: 1.73, p < 0.001), renal disease (OR: 1.99, p < 0.001), moderate-severe liver disease (OR: 2.86, p < 0.001), peripheral vascular disease (OR: 1.43, p < 0.001), and cerebrovascular disease (OR: 1.63, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality. The Charlson > 1.5 (OR: 2.03, p < 0.001) and Elixhauser > 1.5 (OR: 2.71, p < 0.001) comorbidity indices were also independently associated with mortality, and ROC curve analysis showed that they are useful for predicting hospital mortality.ConclusionsAdvanced age, heart disease, renal disease, moderate-severe liver disease, peripheral vascular disease, and cerebrovascular disease before admission were independently associated with hospital mortality. The Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices are useful for predicting hospital mortality in AP patients.

Association between lactate-to-albumin ratio and 28-days all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis: A retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database.

The Lactate-to-Albumin Ratio (LAR) has been applied as a new predictor in sepsis, heart failure, and acute respiratory failure. However, the role of LAR in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis has not been evaluated. Therefore, this study aimed to elucidate the correlation between LAR and 28-d all-cause mortality in patients with Acute Pancreatitis (AP). This study is a retrospective cohort study with the data from the MIMIC-IV (v1.0) database. We included adult patients with acute pancreatitis who were admitted to the intensive care unit in the study. The primary outcome was to evaluate the ability of LAR to predict death at 28-d of hospital admission in patients with AP. A total of 539 patients with acute pancreatitis were included in this study. They were divided into a survival group (486 patients) and a death group (53 patients) according to whether they survived within 28-d of admission, and the mortality rate of patients within 28-d of admission was 9.8%. LAR was shown to be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality within 28-d of admission in patients with AP by multivariate COX regression analysis (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.23 - 2.05; P < 0.001). the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value for LAR was 74.26% (95% CI: 67.02% - 81.50%), which was higher than that for arterial blood lactate (AUC = 71.25%) and serum albumin (AUC = 65.92%) alone. It was not inferior even when compared to SOFA (AUC = 75.15%). The optimal cutoff value for separating the survival and death groups according to Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) was found to be 1.1124. plotting Kaplan-Meier analysis with this cutoff value showed that patients with LAR ≥ 1.1124 had significantly higher all-cause mortality within 28-d of admission than those with LAR < 1.1124 (P < 0.001). The final subgroup analysis showed no significant interaction of LAR with each subgroup (P for interaction: 0.06 - 0.974). LAR can be used as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in AP patients within 28-d of admission, with superior prognostic performance than arterial blood lactate or serum albumin alone.

Development of a Novel Nomogram Incorporating Red Blood Cell Distribution Width-Albumin Ratio for the Prediction of 30-day Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis Patients.

The available nomograms used to predict acute pancreatitis (AP) are not comprehensive. We sought to investigate the effect of red blood cell distribution width (RDW)-albumin ratio (RA) on prognosis of patients with AP and develop a new nomogram to identify AP patients at high risk for mortality. We used data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV version 2.0 (MIMIC-IV v2.0). A total of 487 patients with acute pancreatitis were included. Patients enrolled in the study were randomly assigned to the training set and validation set at a 7 : 3 ratio. According to the 30-day mortality rate, the data were divided into a survival group and a death group. Multivariate logistic regression was used to establish a prognostic nomogram for predicting the 30-day mortality in AP patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and a decision curve analysis (DCA) are used to verify the overall performance of the model. Among 487 patients, 54 patients died (11.1%). 338 patients were assigned to the training cohort and 149 were assigned to the validation cohort. The multivariate analysis results showed that RA, age, heart rate, temperature, AST/ALT, BUN, hemoglobin, potassium, and bilirubin were independent risk factors. The prediction performance of the newly established nomogram was better than those of other common scoring systems (including SOFA, OASIS, and APSIII). The nomogram suggests that RA (OR = 1.706, 95% CI: 1.367-2.185) is the most significant laboratory test indicator influencing prognosis. The new nomogram incorporating RA performed well in predicting AP short-term mortality. A prospective study with a larger sample is needed to validate our findings.

Long non-coding RNA plasmacytoma variant translocation 1 correlates with higher inflammation, multiple organ injury and mortality risk in acute pancreatitis, especially in severe acute pancreatitis

Long non-coding RNA plasmacytoma variant translocation 1 (lnc-PVT1) possesses a good ability to regulate inflammation as well as multiple organ injury via multiple pathways, and clinically exacerbates severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) via autophagy. This study aimed to further assess the correlation of lnc-PVT1 with inflammation, multiple disease assessment scales, and prognostication in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples were collected from 98 AP patients (within 24h after admission) and 50 healthy controls (HCs). lnc-PVT1 in PBMC samples was examined by reverse transcription-quantitive polymerase chain reaction. Multiple AP assessments, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, and in-hospital deaths were evaluated or recorded. lnc-PVT1 was overexpressed in AP patients compared with HCs; it was also positively correlated with Ranson's score, acute pathologic and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and CRP level in AP patients. Besides, lnc-PVT1 disclosed a good predictive value for higher in-hospital mortality in AP patients (the area under the curve: 0.838, 95% confidence interval: 0.708-0.968). Lastly, lnc-PVT1 was generally correlated with CRP level as well as SOFA score among mild AP, moderate-severe AP, and SAP subgroups, especially in SAP subgroup; it was also correlated with higher mortality risk in SAP subgroup, but not in mild AP or moderate-severe AP subgroup. lnc-PVT1 is associated with CRP level, SOFA score, and higher mortality risk in AP patients, especially in SAP patients, indicating its potential as a biomarker for AP.

Comparison of the Efficacy of Balthazar Score and C-Reactive Protein-Albumin Ratio for Determination of Acute Pancreatitis Severity.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) clinic has a wide spectrum ranging from asymptomatic cases to mortality. Early diagnosis and prediction are of great importance to prevent mortality in AP patients. Many prognostic scoring systems have been developed for AP to date. At the time of the initial assessment of attendance to the emergency department (ED), it is impractical to use existing prognostic scoring systems for patients with a diagnosis of AP in most patients. The prognostic performances of radiological and clinical scoring systems of 329 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were compared in terms of C-reactive protein-albumin ratio (CAR) levels, mortality and severity according to Balthazar score. It was observed that the CAR value increased as the AP severity increased. For mortality estimation, the ROC curve was used for sensitivity, specificity, and cut-off values for each scoring system for CAR. When mild pancreatitis and severe pancreatitis were compared according to Balthazar score, the differences between CAR were statistically significant and positive correlations were present. The CAR value has been shown to be a useful clinical tool that can be used with its high predictive value. CAR has the advantages of being easily accessible, inexpensive, and having moderately high diagnostic power to predict AP severity.

Growth differentiation factor 15 is an early predictor for persistent organ failure and mortality in acute pancreatitis

ObjectivesEarly prediction of persistent organ failure (POF) is crucial for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15), also known as macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1), is associated with inflammatory responses. We investigated changes in plasma GDF15 and assessed its predictive value in AP. MethodsThe study included 290 consecutive patients with AP admitted within 36 h after symptoms onset. Clinical data obtained during hospitalization were collected. Plasma GDF15 levels were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The predictive value of GDF15 for POF was analyzed. ResultsThere were 105 mild, 111 moderately severe, and 74 severe AP patients. Plasma GDF15 peak level were measured on admission, and significantly declined on the 3rd and 7th day. Admission GDF15 predicted POF and mortality with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.798–0.895) and 0.934 (95% CI 0.887–0.980), respectively. Admission GDF15, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, and hematocrit were independent factors for POF by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram built on these variables showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.921). The combined predictive model increased the POF accuracy with an AUC 0.925 (95% CI 0.894–0.956), a net reclassification improvement of 0.3024 (95% CI: 0.1482–0.4565, P < 0.001), and an integrated discrimination index of 0.11 (95% CI 0.0497–0.1703; P < 0.001). ConclusionsPlasma GDF15 measured within 48 h of symptom onset could help predict POF and mortality in AP patients.

Evaluating the effect of SARS-Cov-2 infection on prognosis and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

IntroductionAcute pancreatitis (AP) is the leading cause of hospitalization among gastrointestinal disorders. The aim of our study is to compare the results between AP patients with and without COVID−19, and to reveal the effects of COVID−19 on the course, intensive care needs and mortality of AP patients.Material methodsThis was a single-center, retrospective and observational study. Patients over 18 years of age, who were diagnosed with AP during the current pandemic. According to the RT-PCR test result, patients were divided into two groups: COVID-19 positive and COVID-19 negative. Gender, age, laboratory parameters, intensive care unit admission, length of hospital stay, severity and mortality of AP were compared between these two groups.ResultsWe reviewed 562 patients presenting to the emergency department who were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis between 10.03.2020 and 31.12.2020 and included 189 patients in our study. Positive patients need for intensive care (7.23%) were higher compared to negative patients (0.94%). 32.53% of positive patients and 14.15% of negative patients had severe AP (p < 0.03). We established that being COVID-19 positive, CCI scores of ≥5, presence of COVID-19 compatible pneumonia on CT and BISAP scores had an effect on mortality (p < 0,05).ConclusionThe severity and mortality of AP increase in patients with both AP and COVID-19. This rate increases even more in the presence of COVID-19-associated pneumonia. We believe that new strategies should be developed for the follow-up and treatment of patients with both these conditions.

Clinical characteristics and management of gastric outlet obstruction in acute pancreatitis

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics and management of gastric outlet obstruction following acute pancreatitis(AP). BackgroundGastric outlet obstruction (GOO) is not uncommon in acute pancreatitis (AP) and can occur throughout the course. However, the clinical features and related treatment of GOO is rarely reported. MethodsA retrospective review of AP patients with a diagnosis of GOO from March 2017 to June 2020 was performed. The diagnosis and management of GOO, as well as the demographic characteristics and clinical outcomes of the study patients, were collected and analyzed. ResultsOver the three years, there were 60 AP patients developed GOO, constituting an incidence of 5.7%. Thirty-three patients (55.0%, 33/60) developed GOO in the first 4 weeks and 27 patients (45.0%, 27/60) after 4 weeks from onset. Pancreatic necrosis compression (60.6%; 20/33), gastric outlet gastrointestinal edema (27.3%, 9/33) are the main causes of early-onset GOO (≤4 weeks), while wall-off necrosis (92.6%, 25/27) is the leading cause in the late phase (>4 weeks). The management of GOO incorporates both supportive and specific treatment like gastric decompression, gastric juice reinfusion, percutaneous catheter drainage, etc. The mortality of AP patients with GOO (≤4 weeks) was 21.2% and none patients who developed GOO (>4 weeks) died. ConclusionsGOO, as a gastrointestinal complication developed in AP patients, has two peak incidences in the duration of AP and needs to be paid more attention to.

Effect of initiation of renal replacement therapy on mortality in acute pancreatitis patients.

This study aims to explore effect of initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) on mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients. In this study, a total of 92 patients from the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University who were diagnosed with AP and underwent RRT or not between January 2014 and December 2018 were included in this retrospective study. Demographic and clinical data were obtained on admission to SICU. Patients were divided into early initiation of RRT group (n = 44) and delayed initiation of RRT group (n = 48). Duration of mechanical ventilation (MV), intra-peritoneal pressure, vasopressors infusion, body temperature, procalcitonin, creatinine, platelet counts, length of hospital stay and prognosis were recorded during hospitalization, and then compared between groups. Patients with delayed initiation of RRT exhibited significantly higher APACHE II score, SOFA score and lower GCS score than those with early initiation of RRT (P < 0.001, <0.001, = 0.04, respectively). No difference in the rest of the baseline data and vasopressors infusion was found. Dose of Norepinephrine, maximum and mean PCT, maximum and mean creatinine, maximum and mean intra-peritoneal pressure, length of hospital stay, prognosis of ICU and hospitalization showed significant difference between groups. Early initiation of RRT may be beneficial for AP patients, which can provide some insight and support for patients’ treatment in clinic.

Deceased serum bilirubin and albumin levels in the assessment of severity and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis

Background: Our study investigated the diagnostic and prognostic role of serum antioxidant indexes in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).Methods: This study included 708 AP patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database and 477 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). X-tile software was applied to determine the best cutoff values for serum antioxidant indexes. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were employed to select variables associated with severe AP (SAP) and in-hospital mortality. Finally, the nomograms were also externally validated in the eICU-CRD.Results: The best cutoff values for serum total bilirubin (TBIL) and albumin were 1.1 mg/dL and 2.1 g/dL in the training set, respectively. Multivariate logistical regression indicated that both TBIL (odds ratio [OR]=0.740, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.616-0.889, P=0.001) and albumin (OR=0.890, 95%CI: 0.819-0.967, P=0.006) were independent risk factors for SAP. Similarly, multivariate Cox analysis revealed that serum TBIL (hazard ratio [HR]=0.768, 95%CI:0.635-0.928, P=0.006) and albumin (HR=0.962, 95%CI:0.927-0.998, P=0.037) were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in AP patients. The diagnostic nomogram containing TBIL, albumin, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and urea nitrogen and prognostic nomogram combining TBIL, albumin, white blood count, SOFA score, and age obtained good discrimination, calibration and clinical utility in both the MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD.Conclusion: Serum TBIL and albumin were independent predictors for SAP and in-hospital mortality in AP patients. The nomograms combining serum TBIL and albumin with other significant features exerted favorable predictive performance for SAP and in-hospital mortality.

Peak urea level, leukocyte count and use of invasive ventilation as risk factors of mortality in acute pancreatitis: A retrospective study.

BackgroundAcute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with high complications. Early, reliable prediction of mortality may improve patient management.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed medical records of 1,599 patients with AP treated at a single large hospital in southwest China. Models to predict mortality were derived from a subset of 1,062 patients (development dataset), and the models were then validated in the remaining 537 patients (validation dataset). Independent risk factors and prediction models for mortality were identified using logistic regression.ResultsA total of 33 patients in the development dataset and 13 in the validation dataset died during hospitalization. Independent risk factors for mortality were found to be plasma urea levels, glucose levels and platelet counts at admission; as well as peak urea levels, leukocyte counts and use of invasive ventilation during hospitalization. Based on the development dataset, a mortality prediction model based only on urea level at admission gave an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81, which did not significantly improve by incorporating glucose level or platelet count at admission. Significantly better was a model taking into account three in-hospital parameters: peak urea level, leukocyte count and use of invasive ventilation (AUC 0.97).ConclusionsWhile mortality of AP patients can be predicted reasonably well based only on urea values at admission, predictions are more reliable when they take into account in-hospital data on peak urea level, leukocyte count and use of invasive ventilation.

Comparison of Ranson’s and Glasgow criteria with revised Atlanta in prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis patients

Background: To compare the performance of Ranson’s Score (RS) and Glasgow Score (GS) with Revised Atlanta Classification (RAC) in prediction of mortality, and to check their suitability to replace RAC for surgical intervention of gallstone induced acute pancreatitis (GAP).Methods: A hospital based prospective study was conducted between April 2014 and May 2017 with patients presenting with GAP. RS and GS was evaluated using data in first 24 hours and at 48 hours post admission. Patients were classified into mild, moderate and severe based on RAC at the time of hospital stay. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each scoring system. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves for mortality, ICU admission, Organ Failure (OF) and Gallstone Recurrence (GR) were plotted and predictive accuracy of each scoring system was measured by the Area under Curve (AUC). AUC values were compared for statistical significance using De Long test. A p-value of &lt;0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results: Of 81 patients, 15 patients had OF and local complication classified as SAP, with persistent OF (16.0%). The AUC for RS was consistently the highest for predicting mortality (0.943), recurrence of gallstone (0.766), ICU-admission (0.801) and OF (0.852). RS had high specificity (61.9%), PPV (88.2%), Accuracy (90.1%) for predicting mortality, recurrence of gallstone and OF. Glasgow criteria had high sensitivity (85.1%), NPV (79.4) in predicting ICU-admission.Conclusions: RS in comparable with RAC in predicting mortality, GR in patients with GAP and early referral for surgical intervention.