Mortality In Intensive Care Unit Patients Research Articles

Association between serum calcium and in-hospital mortality in intensive care unit patients with cerebral infarction: a cohort study

BackgroundThe relationship between serum calcium levels and the prognosis of cerebral infarction remains controversial.PurposeThis study aims to investigate the correlation between serum calcium levels and in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the MIMIC-IV database. Demographic and clinical data of all participants were collected including gender, age, hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hemoglobin, potassium, sodium, anion gap, platelets, white blood cells, glucose, creatinine, Glasgow coma score (GCS), IV-tPA administration (rt-PA), and mechanical thrombectomy (MT). The outcome measure was in-hospital death. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analysis, curve fitting, interaction analysis, and threshold effect analysis were employed to evaluate the relationship between serum calcium levels and in-hospital mortality among ICU patients with cerebral infarction.ResultsA total of 2,680 critically ill patients with cerebral infarction were enrolled, with a mean serum calcium level of 8.6 ± 0.8 mg/dL. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 19.5%, where Group 1 (serum calcium < 8.0 mg/dL) had a mortality rate of 27.7%, Group 2 (serum calcium 8–9 mg/dL) had a rate of 19.8%, and Group 3 (serum calcium ≥ 9 mg/dL) had a rate of 13.9%. There was a non-linear, S-shaped relationship between serum calcium levels and in-hospital mortality. Serum calcium levels within the range of 7.70–9.50 mg/dL were found to be independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with cerebral infarction. No significant interactions were detected in subgroup analyses, and the results of sensitivity analyses remained stable.ConclusionSerum calcium levels are independently associated with in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with cerebral infarction in the ICU setting. Within the range of 7.70–9.50 mg/dL, lower serum calcium levels increase the risk of in-hospital death among these patients, emphasizing the importance of close monitoring by ICU physicians.

Creatinine clearance/eGFR ratio: a simple index for muscle mass related to mortality in ICU patients

IntroductionIn patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), muscle mass is inversely associated with mortality. Although muscle mass can be estimated with 24-h urinary creatinine excretion (UCE), its use for risk prediction in individual patients is limited because age-, sex-, weight- and length-specific reference values for UCE are lacking. The ratio between measured creatinine clearance (mCC) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) might circumvent this constraint. The main goal was to assess the association of the mCC/eGFR ratio in ICU patients with all-cause hospital and long-term mortality.MethodsThe mCC/eGFR ratio was determined in patients admitted to our ICU between 2005 and 2021 with KDIGO acute kidney injury (AKI) stage 0–2 and an ICU stay ≥ 24 h. mCC was calculated from UCE and plasma creatinine and indexed to 1.73 m2. mCC/eGFR was analyzed by categorizing patients in mCC/eGFR quartiles and as continuous variable.ResultsSeven thousand five hundred nine patients (mean age 61 ± 15 years; 38% female) were included. In-hospital mortality was 27% in the lowest mCC/eGFR quartile compared to 11% in the highest quartile (P < 0.001). Five-year post-hospital discharge actuarial mortality was 37% in the lowest mCC/eGFR quartile compared to 19% in the highest quartile (P < 0.001). mCC/eGFR ratio as continuous variable was independently associated with in-hospital mortality in multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio: 0.578 (95% CI: 0.465—0.719); P < 0.001). mCC/eGFR ratio as continuous variable was also significantly associated with 5-year post-hospital discharge mortality in Cox regression (hazard ratio: 0.27 (95% CI: 0.22—0.32); P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe mCC/eGFR ratio is associated with both in-hospital and long-term mortality and may be an easily available index of muscle mass in ICU patients.

The LIVERAID (LIVER And Infectious Diseases)-ICU score predicts in-hospital mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with infections in the intensive care unit

ObjectivesThe admission of patients with liver cirrhosis to the intensive care unit (ICU) due to infections is a frequent occurrence, often leading to complications such as hepatic encephalopathy, renal failure...

Platelet count has a nonlinear association with 30-day in-hospital mortality in ICU end-stage kidney disease patients: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

This study addresses the relationship between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality in End-Stage Kidney Disease (ESRD) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), a topic with limited existing evidence. Utilizing data from the US eICU-CRD v2.0 database (2014–2015), a retrospective cohort study was conducted involving 3700 ICU ESRD patients. We employed binary logistic regression, smooth curve fitting, and subgroup analyses to explore the association between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality. The 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 13.27% (491/3700), with a median platelet count of 188 × 109/L. After adjusting for covariates, we observed a relationship between platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.97, 0.99). Subgroup analyses supported these findings. More importantly, a nonlinear association was detected, with an inflection point at 222 × 109/L. The effect sizes (OR) on the left and right sides of the inflection point were 0.94 (0.92, 0.96) and 1.03 (1.00, 1.05), respectively. The most significant finding of this study is the revelation of a nonlinear relationship between baseline platelet count and 30-day in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with ESRD. This discovery explicitly suggests that when ESRD patients are admitted to the ICU, a platelet level closer to 222 × 10⁹/L may predict a lower 30-day in-hospital mortality risk.

Sex differences in the outcome of critically Ill patients with COVID-19 - An international multicenter critical care consortium study

BackgroundSex differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) susceptibility, illness severity, and hospital course are widely acknowledged. The effects of sex on outcomes experienced by patients with severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) remains unknown. ObjectivesTo determine the effects of sex on ICU mortality in patients with COVID-19 MethodsThis retrospective analysis of an international multi-center prospective observational database included adults admitted to ICU for treatment of acute COVID-19 between 1st January 2020 and 30th June 2022. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to ascertain the hazard of death (Hazard Ratio=HR) adjusted for pre-selected covariates. The secondary outcome was sex differences in complications of COVID-19 during hospital stay. ResultsOverall, 10,259 patients (3,314 females, 6,945 males) were included with a median age of 60 (interquartile range [IQR]=49–68) and 59 (IQR=49–67) years, respectively. Baseline characteristics were similar between sexes. More females were non-smokers (65% vs. 44 %, p < 0.01) and obese (39% vs. 30 %, p < 0.01), compared to males. Also, males received greater ICU intervention (mechanical ventilation, prone ventilation, vasopressors, and tracheostomy) than females. Males had a greater hazard of death (compared to females, HR=1.14; 95 % CI=1.02–1.26). Adjustment for complications during hospital stay did not alter the hazard of death (HR=1.16; 95 % CI=1.05–1.28). Males had a significantly elevated hazard of death among patients who received ECMO (HR=1.24; 95 % CI=1.01–1.53). Male sex was associated with cardiac arrest (adjusted OR [aOR]=1.37; 95 % CI=1.16–1.62) and PE (aOR=1.28; 95 % CI=1.06–1.55). ConclusionAmong patients admitted to ICU for severe COVID-19, males experienced higher severity of illness and more frequent intervention than females. Ultimately, the hazard of death was moderately elevated in males compared to females despite greater PE and cardiac arrest.

A nomogram for predicting short-term mortality in ICU patients with coexisting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure

ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting 28-day and 90-day mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients who have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) coexisting with congestive heart failure (CHF). MethodsAn extensive analysis was conducted on clinical data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database, covering patients over 18 years old with both COPD and CHF, who were were first-time ICU admissions between 2008 and 2019. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression method was employed to screen clinical features, with the final model being optimized using backward stepwise regression guided by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to construct the nomogram. The predictive model's discrimination and clinical applicability were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, the C-index, and decision curve analysi s (DCA). ResultsThis analysis was comprised of a total of 1948 patients. Patients were separated into developing and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio, with similar baseline characteristics between the two groups. The ICU mortality rates for the developing and verification cohorts were 20.8 % and 19.5 % at 28 days, respectively, and 29.4 % and 28.3 % at 90 days, respectively. The clinical characteristics retained by the backward stepwise regression include age, weight, systolic blood pressure (SBP), respiratory rate (RR), oxygen saturation (SpO2), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), lactate, partial thrombosis time (PTT), race, marital status, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), malignant cancer, acute kidney failure (AKF), pneumonia, immunosuppressive drugs, antiplatelet agents, vasoactive agents, acute physiology score III (APS III), Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS), and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We developed two separate models by assigning weighted scores to each independent risk factor: nomogram A excludes CCI but includes age, T2DM, and malignant cancer, while nomogram B includes only CCI, without age, T2DM, and malignant cancer. Based on the results of the AUC and C-index, this study selected nomogram A, which demonstrated better predictive performance, for subsequent validation. The calibration curve, C-index, and DCA results indicate that nomogram A has good accuracy in predicting short-term mortality and demonstrates better discriminative ability than commonly used clinical scoring systems, making it more suitable for clinical application. ConclusionThe nomogram developed in this study offers an effective assessment of short-term mortality risk for ICU patients with COPD and CHF, proving to be a superior tool for predicting their short-term prognosis.

Clinical value of fibroblast growth factor 19 in predicting gastrointestinal dysfunction in patients with sepsis.

To assess the potential value of fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19) as a predictor of gastrointestinal (GI) dysfunction in patients with sepsis. A prospective study was conducted, and 209 patients who were diagnosed with sepsis and admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at teaching hospitals in China were enrolled from June 2023 to December 2023. The serum FGF19 level was determined at ICU admission. The differences in serum FGF19 levels between the two groups were compared via the Mann-Whitney U test, and Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to identify the correlations of the FGF19 concentration with other clinical variables and biomarkers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the value of FGF19 in predicting GI dysfunction in patients with sepsis. The total ICU mortality rate was 13.3% (24/180). There was a tendency toward increased ICU mortality in patients with sepsis-associated GI dysfunction compared with patients without GI dysfunction with statistical significance (21.9% vs. 8.6%, p = 0.031). Serum FGF19 levels were significantly higher in patients with sepsis-associated GI dysfunction than in patients without GI dysfunction [355.1 (37.2, 2315.4) μg/mL vs. 127.4 (5.7, 944.2) μg/mL, p = 0.003]. The results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the ability of FGF19 to predict GI dysfunction in patients with sepsis was 0.773 (95% CI 0.712 ~ 0.827), which was greater than the predictive capacity of PCT [AUC = 0.632 (95% CI 0.562 ~ 0.804)]. Serum FGF19 could be considered as a novel predictor or biomarker of GI dysfunction in patients with sepsis.

Heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) as an early biomarker in sepsis-induced cardiomyopathy: a prospective observational study

BackgroundSepsis-induced cardiomyopathy (SICM) is a common and life-threatening complication of sepsis, significantly contributing to elevated mortality. This study aimed to identify crucial indicators for the prompt and early assessment of SICM.MethodsPatients diagnosed with sepsis or SICM within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission were enrolled in this prospective observational study. Patients were assigned to the training set, validation set and external test set. The primary endpoint was 7-day ICU mortality, and the secondary endpoint was 28-day ICU mortality. Three machine learning algorithms were utilized to identify relevant indicators for diagnosing SICM, incorporating 64 indicators including serum biomarkers associated with cardiac, renal, and liver function, lipid metabolism, coagulation, and inflammation. Internal and external validations were performed on the screening results. Patients were then stratified based on the cut-off value of the most diagnostically effective biomarker identified, and their prognostic outcomes were observed and analyzed.ResultsA total of 270 patients were included in the training and validation set, and 52 patients were included in the external test set. Age, sex, and comorbidities did not significantly differ between the sepsis and SICM groups (P > 0.05). The support vector machine (SVM) algorithm identified six indicators with an accuracy of 84.5%, the random forest (RF) algorithm identified six indicators with an accuracy of 81.9%, and the logistic regression (LR) algorithm screened out seven indicators. Following rigorous selection, a diagnostic model for sepsis-induced cardiomyopathy was established based on heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) (OR 1.308, 95% CI 1.170–1.462, P < 0.001) and retinol-binding protein (RBP) (OR 1.020, 95% CI 1.006–1.034, P < 0.05). H-FABP alone exhibited the highest diagnostic performance in both the internal (AUROC 0.689, P < 0.05) and external sets (AUROC 0.845, P < 0.05). Patients with SICM were further stratified based on an H-FABP diagnostic cut-off value of 8.335 ng/mL. Kaplan–Meier curve analysis demonstrated that elevated H-FABP levels at admission were associated with higher 7-day ICU mortality in patients with SICM (P < 0.05).ConclusionsThis study revealed that H-FABP concentrations measured within 24 h of patient admission could serve as a crucial biomarker for the early and rapid diagnosis and short-term prognostic evaluation of SICM.

Comparison of Efficacy and Safety of Etomidate with Other Anesthesia Induction Drugs for Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

IntroductionEtomidate is commonly used to induce anesthesia in cardiac surgery patients due to its favorable cardiovascular profile. Sedative-hypnotic effects are mediated by gammaaminobutyric acid (GABA) receptor complexes in the central nervous system. There are numerous studies in which etomidate and other drugs are compared in terms of their clinical outcomes. The relative efficacy and safety of etomidate, however, remains inconclusive. In this study, we performed a systematic analysis of randomized controlled trials to assess the impact of etomidate, on patients undergoing cardiac surgery, with respect to patient outcome and adverse events. MethodsA systematic review was conducted of all existing clinical trials exploring the safety and efficacy of etomidate in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared etomidate with other drugs during induction in adult cardiac surgery assessing hemodynamic parameters and clinical outcomes were included, while studies involving non-cardiac or pediatric surgery and those lacking relevant outcome data were excluded. Primary outcomes were all-cause 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included duration of tracheal intubation, duration of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, duration of hospital stay, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR) and other hemodynamic parameters, vasopressor requirements after induction and intubation, cortisol levels, and incidence of myoclonus. ResultsSixteen randomized controlled trials involving 1,162 patients were included. Etomidate did not affect the all-cause 30-day mortality of patients undergoing cardiac surgery compared to comparator drugs (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.26 to 3.49; P = 0.95). There were no significant differences in the duration of tracheal intubation (MD, -0.08 h; 95% CI, -1.96 to 1.81; P = 0.94), the duration of ICU stay (MD, -2.07 h; 95% CI, -8.09 to 3.96; P = 0.50) or the duration of hospital stay (MD, -0.62 d; 95% CI, -2.25 to 1.00; P = 0.45) when etomidate was compared to comparator drugs. Patients receiving etomidate demonstrated a more stable hemodynamic profile after induction and intubation compared to those receiving comparator drugs. The requirement of a vasopressor after induction and intubation was significantly reduced with etomidate compared with those with comparator drugs (RR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.56; P < 0.00001). ConclusionsThis systematic meta-analysis found a significant heterogeneity among included studies. In addition, most studies focused only on the hemodynamic profile of etomidate. Thus, efficacy and safety of etomidate could not be answered within this context. Nevertheless, for patients undergoing cardiac surgery, etomidate seems to offer a minimal beneficial cardiovascular profile in comparison with other agents during induction and intubation. However, improved hemodynamics did not improve clinical outcomes as Etomidate did not affect mortality, duration of tracheal intubation, the length of stay in ICU and hospital. Finally, infectious side effects as one important trigger for increased mortality in ICU patients due to the use of Etomidate could not be analyzed as data were mostly missing.

Effect of adequacy of empirical antibiotic therapy for hospital-acquired bloodstream infections on intensive care unit patient prognosis: a causal inference approach using data from the Eurobact2 study

ObjectivesHospital-acquired bloodstream infections (HA-BSI) in the intensive care unit (ICU) are common life-threatening events. We aimed to investigate the association between early adequate antibiotic therapy and 28-day mortality in ICU patients who survived at least 1 day after the onset of HA-BSI. MethodsWe used individual data from a prospective, observational, multicentre, and intercontinental cohort study (Eurobact2). We included patients who were followed for ≥1 day and for whom time-to-appropriate treatment was available. We used an adjusted frailty Cox proportional-hazard model to assess the effect of time-to-treatment-adequacy on 28-day mortality. Infection- and patient-related variables identified as confounders by the Directed Acyclic Graph were used for adjustment. Adequate therapy within 24 hours was used for the primary analysis. Secondary analyses were performed for adequate therapy within 48 and 72 hours and for identified patient subgroups. ResultsAmong the 2418 patients included in 330 centres worldwide, 28-day mortality was 32.8% (n = 402/1226) in patients who were adequately treated within 24 hours after HA-BSI onset and 40% (n = 477/1192) in inadequately treated patients (p < 0.01). Adequacy within 24 hours was more common in young, immunosuppressed patients, and with HA-BSI due to Gram-negative pathogens. Antimicrobial adequacy was significantly associated with 28-day survival (aHR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72–0.96; p 0.01). The estimated population attributable fraction of 28-day mortality of inadequate therapy was 9.15% (95% CI, 1.9–16.2%). DiscussionIn patients with HA-BSI admitted to the ICU, the population attributable fraction of 28-day mortality of inadequate therapy within 24 hours was 9.15%. This estimate should be used when hypothesizing the possible benefit of any intervention aiming at reducing the time-to-appropriate antimicrobial therapy in HA-BSI.

Critical norepinephrine dose to predict early mortality during circulatory shock in intensive care: a retrospective study in 3423 ICU patients over 4-year period.

The maximal norepinephrine (NE) dose >1 μg/kg/min during circulatory shock apparently is associated with higher mortality, but this threshold needs confirmation. This study aimed at investigating whether NE infusion at a dose >1 μg/kg/min could predict early intensive care unit (ICU) mortality (first 5 days). The secondary objective was to assess the day-by-day relationship between NE dose during the first four days of ICU stay and subsequent mortality. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from ICU patients receiving NE for circulatory shock at the Nimes University Hospital (France) from January/2016 to December/2019. 5,735 patients were admitted, 3,693 were screened and 3,423 were analyzed. NE infusion at a dose >1 μg/kg/min was associated with day-5 mortality (Hazard Ratio: 7.40, p < 0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.79 to predict day-5 mortality in ICU for maximal NE > 1 μg/kg/min. The calculated threshold of 1.13 μg/kg/min for maximal NE was the best prognostic value (Sensitivity: 67%, Specificity: 80%, positive predictive value: 45%). When the 1.2 μg/kg/min threshold was crossed either on the first, second, third or fourth day of ICU stay, the probability of subsequent death was 47%, 49%, 60% and 40%, respectively. Along the first four days of ICU stay, the risk of death increased with increasing NE infusion dose. A NE infusion rate > 1.13 μg/kg/min predicts day-5 mortality in ICU patients with circulatory shock. The time to reach maximal NE infusion rate was shorter in survivors than in non-survivors.

Artificial Intelligence-Based Models for Prediction of Mortality in ICU Patients: A Scoping Review.

Healthcare professionals may be able to anticipate more accurately a patient's timing of death and assess their possibility of recovery by implementing a real-time clinical decision support system. Using such a tool, the healthcare system can better understand a patient's condition and make more informed judgements about distributing limited resources. This scoping review aimed to analyze various death prediction AI (Artificial Intelligence) algorithms that have been used in ICU (Intensive Care Unit) patient populations. The search strategy of this study involved keyword combinations of outcome and patient setting such as mortality, survival, ICU, terminal care. These terms were used to perform database searches in MEDLINE, Embase, and PubMed up to July 2022. The variables, characteristics, and performance of the identified predictive models were summarized. The accuracy of the models was compared using their Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. Databases search yielded an initial pool of 8271 articles. A two-step screening process was then applied: first, titles and abstracts were reviewed for relevance, reducing the pool to 429 articles. Next, a full-text review was conducted, further narrowing down the selection to 400 key studies. Out of 400 studies on different tools or models for prediction of mortality in ICUs, 16 papers focused on AI-based models which were ultimately included in this study that have deployed different AI-based and machine learning models to make a prediction about negative patient outcome. The accuracy and performance of the different models varied depending on the patient populations and medical conditions. It was found that AI models compared with traditional tools like SAP3 or APACHE IV score were more accurate in death prediction, with some models achieving an AUC of up to 92.9%. The overall mortality rate ranged from 5% to more than 60% in different studies. We found that AI-based models exhibit varying performance across different patient populations. To enhance the accuracy of mortality prediction, we recommend customizing models for specific patient groups and medical contexts. By doing so, healthcare professionals may more effectively assess mortality risk and tailor treatments accordingly. Additionally, incorporating additional variables-such as genetic information-into new models can further improve their accuracy.

Low thoracic skeletal muscle is a risk factor for 6-month mortality of severe community-acquired pneumonia in older men in intensive care unit

BackgroundPatients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (sCAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) often exhibit muscle catabolism, muscle weakness, and/or atrophy, all related to an increased morbidity and mortality. However, the relationship between thoracic skeletal muscle mass and sCAP-related mortality has not been well-studied. Early recognition of sarcopenia in ICU patients with sCAP would benefit their prognosis.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted in Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province, involving 101 patients with sCAP admitted in the ICU between December 2022 and February 2023. We measured the cross-sectional aera of the pectoralis, intercostal, paraspinal, serratus, and latissimus muscles at the T4 vertebral level (T4CSA) using chest computed tomography. Discriminatory thresholds were established by performing receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, with a designated cutoff value of 96.75 cm2 for male patients. This cohort was classified into mortality and survival groups based on a 6-month post-admission outcome. Univariate and multifactorial logistic regression analyses were performed to validate the correlation between low thoracic skeletal muscle area and prognostic outcomes.ResultsThe mean age of the patients was 75.39 ± 12.09 years, with an overall 6-month mortality of 73.27%. T4CSA of the 6-month survival group was significantly larger than that in the mortality group for overall cohort. The T4CSA in the survival group was significantly larger than that in the mortality group (104.29 ± 23.98cm2 vs. 87.44 ± 23.0cm2, p = 0.008). T4CSA predicted the 6-month mortality from sCAP in males with an AUC of 0.722 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.582–0.861). The specificity and sensitivity were 71.4% and 71.1%, respectively, (p < 0.05). No significant difference was observed between the two groups in terms of T4CSA.ConclusionsThis study revealed that low thoracic skeletal muscle mass increased the risk of all-cause 6-month mortality in ICU patients with sCAP, particularly among male patients.

A two-tier feature selection method for predicting mortality risk in ICU patients with acute kidney injury

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most important lethal factors for patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and timely high-risk prognostic assessment and intervention are essential to improving patient prognosis. In this study, a stacking model using the MIMIC-III dataset with a two-tier feature selection approach was developed to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU patients admitted for AKI. External validation was performed using separate MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using the stacking model, and features were selected using the Boruta and XGBoost feature selection methods. This study compares the performance of a stacking model using two-tier feature selection with a model using single-tier feature selection (XGBoost: 85; Boruta: 83; two-tier: 0.91). The predictive effectiveness of the stacking model was further validated by using different datasets (Validation 1: 0.83; Validation 2: 0.85) and comparing it with a simpler model and traditional clinical scores (SOFA: 0.65; APACH IV: 0.61). In addition, this study combined interpretable techniques and causal inference to analyze the causal relationship between features and predicted outcomes.

Prediction of in-hospital Mortality of Intensive Care Unit Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Based on an Explainable Machine Learning Algorithm.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is potentially fatal. Therefore, early identification of patients at a high mortality risk and timely intervention are essential. This study aimed to establish an explainable machine-learning model for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with AP. Data on patients with AP, including demographics, vital signs, laboratory tests, comorbidities, treatment, complication, and severity scores, were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and the eICU collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Based on the data from MIMIC-IV, we used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm to select variables and then established 9 machine-learning models and screened the optimal model. Data from the eICU-CRD were used for external validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, decision curve, and calibration plots were used to assess the models' efficacy. Shapley's additive explanation values were used to explain the model. Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB) model had the best performance on the data from MIMIC-IV, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.840, 0.787, 0.839, and 0.792, respectively. The GNB model also performed well on the data from the eICU-CRD, with an AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.862, 0.833, 0.848, and 0.763, respectively. According to Shapley's additive explanation values, the top 4 predictive factors were maximum red cell distribution width, minimum saturation of blood oxygen, maximum blood urea nitrogen, and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The GNB model demonstrated excellent performance and generalizability in predicting mortality in ICU patients with AP. Therefore, it can identify patients at a high mortality risk.

Effect of rigorous fluid management using monitoring of ECW ratio by bioelectrical impedance analysis in critically ill postoperative patients: A prospective, single-blind, randomized controlled study

Background & AimsPrecise assessment of postoperative volume status is important to administrate optimal fluid management. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) which measures the body composition using electric character. Extracellular water (ECW) ratio by BIA represented as the ratio of ECW to total body water (TBW) and is known to reflect the hydration status. Based on this, we aimed to determine whether aggressive fluid control using ECW ratio could improve clinical outcomes through a single blind, randomized controlled trial. MethodsFrom November 2021 to December 2022, intensive care unit (ICU) patients admitted after surgery were randomly assigned to an intervention group or a control group whether postoperative fluid management was controlled via BIA. Among patients in the intervention group, dehydrated patients received a bolus infusion with crystalloid fluid whereas diuretics were administrated to overhydrated patients until the value of ECW ratio fell within its normal setting range (0.390–0.406). Contrarily, BIA was performed once a day for the control group. Patients in the control group received traditional fluid treatment regardless of BIA results. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality in two groups. The secondary outcomes were postoperative morbidities, 28-day mortality. Results77 patients of the intervention group and 90 patients of the control group were finally analyzed. The in-hospital mortality (0 in intervention, 4.4% in control, p = 0.125) and 28-day mortality (1.3% in intervention, 14.4% in control, p = 0.002) showed lower incidence in the intervention group than in the control group. In multivariate analysis, the overhydrated status whose ECW ratio exceeding 0.406 [odds ratio (OR): 2.731, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.001-7.663, p = 0.049] and high capillary leak index (CLI) value at ICU admission (OR: 1.024, 95% CI: 1.008-1.039, p = 0.002) were risk factors of postoperative morbidities. Regarding the 28-day mortality, high CLI value (OR: 1.025, 95% CI: 1.002-1.050, p = 0.037) and traditional strategy without BIA monitoring (OR: 9.903, 95% CI: 1.095-89.566, p = 0.041) were the significant predisposing factors. ConclusionOur results revealed the rigorous fluid treatment with volume control based on ECW ratio by BIA failed to achieve significant improvement in in-hospital mortality, but it could reduce 28-day mortality of ICU patients. Monitoring of ECW ratio may help establish optimal fluid treatment strategies for postoperative ICU patients who are susceptible to fluid imbalances with fluid overload. Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT06097923, retrospectively registered on October 16, 2023, https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06097923?term=NCT06097923&rank=1

The relationship between serum anion gap levels and short-, medium-, and long-term all-cause mortality in ICU patients with congestive heart failure: a retrospective cohort study

Background There hasn’t been research done on the connection between serum anion gap (AG) levels and long-, medium-, and short-term all-cause mortality in congestive heart failure (CHF) patients. This study aims to investigate the association between serum anion gap levels and all-cause mortality in CHF patients after adjusting for other covariates. Methods For each patient, we gather demographic information, comorbidities, laboratory results, vital signs, and scoring data using the ICU (Intensive Care Unit) Admission Scoring System from the MIMIC-III database. The connection between baseline AG and long-, medium-, and short-term all-cause mortality in critically ill congestive heart failure patients was investigated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves, subgroup analysis, restricted cubic spline, and Cox proportional risk analysis. Results 4840 patients with congestive heart failure in total were included in this study. With a mean age of 72.5 years, these patients had a gender split of 2567 males and 2273 females. After adjusting for other covariates, a multiple regression analysis revealed that, in critically ill patients with congestive heart failure, all-cause mortality increased significantly with rising AG levels. In the fully adjusted model, we discovered that AG levels were strongly correlated with 4-year, 365-day, 90-day, and 30-day all-cause mortality in congestive heart failure patients with HRs (95% CI) of 1.06 (1.04, 1.08); 1.08 (1.05, 1.10); and 1.08 (1.05, 1.11) (p-value < 0.05). Our subgroup analysis’s findings demonstrated a high level of consistency and reliability. K-M survival curves demonstrate that high serum AG levels are associated with a lower survival probability. Conclusion Our research showed the association between CHF patients’ all-cause mortality and anion gap levels was non-linear. Elevated anion gap levels are associated with an increased risk of long-, medium-, and short-term all-cause death in patients with congestive heart failure. Continuous monitoring of changes in AG levels may have a clinical predictive role.

Effect of trehalose on mortality and disease severity in ICU-admitted patients: Protocol for a triple-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial

BackgroundImprovement in organ failure in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is accompanied by lower mortality rate. A disaccharide, trehalose is a candidate to improve organ failure and survival by autophagy induction and enhancing oxidative stress defense. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of trehalose in improving clinical outcome and reducing mortality in ICU patients. Methodsa triple-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, two arm, parallel-group, superiority clinical trial will enroll 200 ICU-admitted patients at Imam Reza hospital, Mashhad, Iran. The patients will be randomly allocated to receive either a 100 ml solution of 15 % trehalose or normal saline intravenously. Primary outcomes include ICU mortality and 60-day mortality, while secondary outcomes focus on blood parameters on day 5 and length of hospital/ICU stay. ConclusionTrehalose has demonstrated beneficial effects in diverse patients; however, no study has evaluated its effect in all ICU-admitted patients. Consequently, this study provides an opportunity to investigate whether trehalose's anti-inflammatory effects, mediated by inducing autophagy and enhancing oxidative stress defense, can play a role in reducing mortality and improving clinical outcomes in the critically ill patients. If successful, trehalose could offer a potential therapeutic approach in the ICU setting.

A multicenter clinical study of critically ill patients with sepsis complicated with acute kidney injury in Beijing: incidence, clinical characteristics and outcomes

To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and prognosis of critically ill patients with sepsis combined with acute kidney injury (AKI) in intensive care unit (ICU) in Beijing, and to analyze the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality among these critically ill patients. Data were collected from the Beijing AKI Trial (BAKIT) database, including 9 049 patients consecutively admitted to 30 ICUs in 28 tertiary hospitals in Beijing from March 1 to August 31, 2012. Patients were divided into non-AKI and non-sepsis group, AKI and non-sepsis group, non-AKI and sepsis group, AKI and sepsis group. Clinical data recorded included demographic characteristics, primary reasons for ICU admission, comorbidities, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II(APACHE II) within 24 hours of ICU admission, physiological and laboratory indexes, treatment in the ICU, AKI staging based on the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), as well as the prognostic indicators including length of stay in ICU, length of stay in hospital, ICU and in-hospital mortality. The primary endpoint was discharge or in-hospital death. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for hospital death in ICU patients. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was drawn to analyze the cumulative survival of ICU patients during hospitalization. A total of 3 107 critically ill patients were ultimately enrolled, including 1 259 cases in the non-AKI and non-sepsis group, 931 cases in the AKI and non-sepsis group, 264 cases in the non-AKI and sepsis groups, and 653 cases in the AKI and sepsis group. Compared with the other three group, patients in the AKI and sepsis group were the oldest, had the lowest mean arterial pressure (MAP), and the highest APACHE II score, SOFA score, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and serum creatinine (SCr) levels, and they also had the highest proportion of receiving mechanical ventilation, requiring vasopressor support, and undergoing renal replacement therapy (RRT), all P < 0.01. Of these 3 107 patients, 1 584 (51.0%) were diagnosed with AKI, and the incidence of AKI in patients with sepsis was significantly higher than in those without sepsis [71.2% (653/917) vs. 42.5% (931/2 190), P < 0.01]. The highest proportion of KDIGO 0 stage was observed in the non-sepsis group (57.5%), while the highest proportion of KDIGO 3 stage was observed in the sepsis group (32.2%). Within the same KDIGO stage, the mortality of patients with sepsis was significantly higher than that of non-sepsis patients (0 stage: 17.8% vs. 3.1%, 1 stage: 36.3% vs. 7.4%, 2 stage: 42.7% vs. 17.1%, 3 stage: 54.6% vs. 28.6%, AKI: 46.1% vs. 14.2%). The ICU mortality (38.7%) and in-hospital mortality (46.1%) in the AKI and sepsis group were significantly higher than those in the other three groups. Kaplan-Meier survival curves further showed that the cumulative survival rate of patients with AKI and sepsis during hospitalization was significantly lower than that of the other three groups (53.9% vs. 96.9%, 85.8%, 82.2%, Log-Rank: χ 2 = 379.901, P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that among surviving patients, length of ICU stay and total length of hospital stay were significantly longer in the AKI and sepsis group than those in the other three groups (both P < 0.01). Multivariate regression analysis showed that age, APACHE II score and SOFA score within 24 hours of ICU admission, coronary heart disease, AKI, sepsis, and AKI combined with sepsis were independent risk factors for ICU mortality in patients (all P < 0.05). After adjusting for covariates, AKI, sepsis, and sepsis combined with AKI were significantly associated with higher ICU and in-hospital mortality, with the highest ICU mortality [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 14.82, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 8.10-27.12; Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P = 0.816] and in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR = 7.40, 95%CI was 4.94-11.08; Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P = 0.708) observed in patients with sepsis combined with AKI. The incidence of AKI is high in sepsis patients, and those with both AKI and sepsis have a higher disease burden, more abnormalities in physiological and laboratory indicators, and significantly increased ICU and in-hospital mortality. Among surviving patients, the length of ICU stay and total length of hospital stay are also longer in the AKI and sepsis group. Age, APACHE II score and SOFA score within 24 hours of ICU admission, coronary heart disease, AKI, and sepsis are independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in ICU patients.

Plasma proenkephalin andneutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin predict mortality in ICU patients with acute kidney injury.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality rates for this condition are high. To reduce the high incidence of short-term mortality, reliable prognostic indicators are required to facilitate early diagnosis and treatment of AKI. We assessed the ability of plasma proenkephalin (p‑PENK) and plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (p‑NGAL) to predict 28-day mortality in AKI patients in intensive care. This prospective study, carried out between January 2019 and December 2019, comprised 150 patients (100 male) diagnosed with AKI after excluding 20 patients discharged within 24 h and those with missing hospitalization data. Blood samples were collected to determine admission p-PENK and p-NGAL levels. The study outcome was 28‑day mortality. The mean patient age was 68 years (female, 33%). The average P‑PENK and p‑NGAL levels were 0.24 ng/µL and 223.70 ng/mL, respectively. P‑PENK levels >0.36 ng/µL and p‑NGAL levels >230.30 ng/mL were used as critical values to reliably indicate 28‑day mortality for patients with AKI (adjusted hazard ratios 0.785 [95% confidence interval 0.706-0.865, P<0.001] and 0.700 [95% confidence interval 0.611-0.789, P<0.001], respectively). This association was significant for mortality in patients in intensive care with AKI. Baseline p-PENK (0.36 ng/µL) and p-NGAL (230.30 ng/mL) levels and their respective cut-off values showed clinical value in predicting 28-day mortality. Serum PENK and NGAL levels, when used in conjunction, improved the accuracy of predicting 28-day mortality in patients with AKI while retaining sensitivity and specificity.