Emergency Department Mortality Research Articles

The mobile seniors’ clinic - an innovative transition of care for frail older adults

BackgroundThis study aims to evaluate the impact of Quebec’s first hospital-at-home-inspired mobile Seniors’ Clinic, the “Clinique des Ainés (CDA)”, on frail older adults’ returns to the Emergency Department (ED), mortality, and hospital Length Of Stay (LOS) and rehospitalizations.MethodsDesign: Quasi-experimental pre-post implementation cohort study. Population: Patients aged ≥ 75 years admitted to the short-term geriatric unit after an ED consultation (control) or included by the CDA (intervention). Outcomes: return to ED (RtoED), mortality, ED & hospital LOS, and rehospitalizations. Statistical analyses: Multivariable regression modelling.ResultsOverall, 891 patients were included. At the intervention site (CDA) (n = 437), RtoED were similar at 30 (17.5% & 19.5%, p = 0.58), 90 (34.4% & 37.3%, p = 0.46) and 180 days (47.2% & 54.0%, p = 0.07) in the pre and post-implementation phases. No mortality differences were found. The hospitalization LOS was significantly shorter (28.26 and 14.22 days, p < 0.01). At 90 days, rehospitalization LOS was decreased by 8.51 days (p = 0.02) and by 6.48 days at 180 days (p = 0.03). Compared to the control site (n = 454) in the post-implementation phase, RtoED was 54% at the intervention site compared to 44.1% (p = 0.02) at 180 days. The CDA had a lower adjusted probability of mortality at 90 days compared to the control site (4.8% VS 11.7%, p = 0.03). No rehospitalization LOS differences were noted.ConclusionsThe Clinique des Ainés showed effectiveness in caring for frail older patients in their homes by decreasing their hospital LOS by half and 90 days mortality risk. It was a safe care trajectory without a clinically significant increase in ED returns or mortality.

Association of Benzodiazepine Prescription With Short-Term Prognosis in Elderly Patients Attended in Emergency Department: Results From the EDEN PROJECT.

Benzodiazepine prescription is a growing phenomenon among the elderly population. However, information related to the frequency of these drugs among the elderly population attending in emergency departments (ED) and its impact over prognosis is scarce. The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of benzodiazepine prescription and to analyze its association with short-term prognosis in elderly patients attended in ED. A retrospective analysis of the EDEN (Emergency Department Elderly in Need) cohort was conducted. This registry included all elderly patients attending in 52 Spanish EDs for any condition, between April 1st and 7th in 2019. Socio-demographic data, comorbidities, and medication were recorded by consulting the patient's electronic health records. The assessed outcomes consisted on new ED visit, hospitalization, and mortality at 30 days after the first ED visit, associated with the use of benzodiazepines at baseline in comparison with no prescription of benzodiazepines. Crude and adjusted logistic regression analyses including patient's comorbidities were performed. Two sensitivity analyses were performed considering concomitant prescription of other central nervous system depressants as well as direct discharge from the ED. 25 557 patients were evaluated (mean age 78 [IQR: 71-84]). 7865 (30.8%) patients were taken benzodiazepines at admission. After adjustment for comorbidities and other central nervous system drugs, benzodiazepine prescription was associated with ED revisit [OR: 1.10 (95%CI: 1.03-1.18)]. Similar results were found in the sensitivity analysis, eliminating patients with central nervous depressors [OR: 1.11 (1.03-1.25)] and patients discharged to home [OR: 1.13 (1.04-1.23)]. No association was found between the use of these drugs and new hospitalizations [OR: 0.90 (0.77-1.05)] or mortality 30 days after discharge [OR: 1.01 (0.88-1.18)]. The results held for all three outcomes in the sensitivity analyses. The use of benzodiazepines is a frequent phenomenon among the elderly population attended in the ED, being associated with an increased risk of new visits to the emergency room, but not with an increased risk of 30-day hospitalization or mortality.

Prospective and External Validation of Machine Learning Models for Short- and Long-Term Mortality in Acutely Admitted Patients Using Blood Tests.

Background: Predicting mortality in emergency departments (EDs) using machine learning models presents challenges, particularly in balancing simplicity with performance. This study aims to develop models that are both simple and effective for predicting short- and long-term mortality in ED patients. Our approach uses a minimal set of variables derived from one single blood sample obtained at admission. Methods: Data from three cohorts at two large Danish university hospitals were analyzed, including one retrospective and two prospective cohorts where prognostic models were applied to predict individual mortality risk, spanning the years 2013-2022. Routine biochemistry analyzed in blood samples collected at admission was the primary data source for the prediction models. The outcomes were mortality at 10, 30, 90, and 365 days after admission to the ED. The models were developed using Light Gradient Boosting Machines. The evaluation of mortality predictions involved metrics such as Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values, positive predictive values, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). Results: A total of 43,648 unique patients with 65,484 admissions were analyzed. The models showed high accuracy, with very good to excellent AUC values between 0.87 and 0.93 across different time intervals. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that a single assessment of routine clinical biochemistry upon admission can serve as a powerful predictor for both short-term and long-term mortality in ED admissions.

Cardiac Arrest Mortality and Disposition Patterns in United States Emergency Departments.

Background: Despite resuscitative efforts, cardiac arrest (CA) continues to result in high mortality and poor prognosis. However, a gap remains in understanding the comparative outcomes of efforts in emergency departments (ED) over recent years. This study evaluated patients with CA during ED visits, with a particular focus on outcomes of mortality and transition of care. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using the National Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) database. The study population included patients aged 18 years or older who visited the ED between January 2016 and December 2020. Statistical analysis of patients and hospital characteristics included chi-squared tests for independence and multivariable logistic regression models to report the associations of factors with mortality in the ED and disposition from the ED. The primary outcome measured was mortality in the ED, and the secondary outcome included transition of care. Results: A total of 699,822,424 ED visits occurred between 2016 and 2020, with 1,414,060 (0.20%) CAs. The survival rate from CA ranged from 24.6% to 28.1%. In 2020, the rate of ED CA increased to 0.27%, with an inpatient mortality rate of 58.8%. There was no significant difference in mortality between sexes (p = 0.690). There was a trend for higher mortality in the ED among patients who were self-paid. Notably, the odds of transfer from the ED to other hospitals were significantly lower in minority groups. Conclusions: Our results showed significant disparities in ED mortality and patient disposition following cardiac arrest, highlighting the need for equitable healthcare resources and policies.

Correlates of improved outcomes in patients with COVID-19 treated in US emergency departments

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic was managed in part by the rapid development of vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics including antiviral agents and advances in emergency airway and ventilatory management. The impact of these therapeutic advances on clinically pertinent metrics of emergency care have not been well-studied. MethodsWe abstracted data from emergency department (ED) visits made to 21 US health systems during the first two years of the pandemic, from February 1, 2020 to January 31, 2022. These health systems were participants in the NIH-supported COVID EHR Cohort, in which the University of Wisconsin served as the coordinating site. Limited patient-level data files were submitted monthly. Data elements included demographic and clinical variables, as well as standard measures of ED outcomes including 72-h returns, 72-h returns leading to readmission, and in-hospital mortality. Multivariable models were fitted to identify correlates of each of the dependent variables. A test for trend was used to detect changes in outcomes over time. ResultsDuring the two-year period, 150,357 individuals aged 18 years or older visited the ED. The median age was 45.4 years (IQR 27), 58.1 % were female, 49 % were White, 18.3 % Hispanic/Latino, and 45 % were publicly insured or uninsured. The prevalence of 72-h ED returns, readmissions, and in-hospital mortality significantly declined across the two-year period. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was associated with reduced ED returns and mortality. Therapeutic agents were associated with increased mortality risk but were likely confounded by unmeasured covariates. ConclusionsOperational and clinical outcomes of ED-based treatment of individuals with COVID-19 improved in the first two years of the pandemic. This improvement is likely multifactorial and includes the development and deployment of SARS-CoV-2-specific vaccines, therapeutic agents, and improved healthcare delivery in the ED and elsewhere addressing management of airway and ventilatory status, as well as increased innate immunity in the general population.

Machine Learning Models for Predicting Mortality in Patients with Cirrhosis and Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding at an Emergency Department: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Cirrhosis is a major global cause of mortality, and upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding significantly increases the mortality risk in these patients. Although scoring systems such as the Child-Pugh score and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease evaluate the severity of cirrhosis, none of these systems specifically target the risk of mortality in patients with upper GI bleeding. In this study, we constructed machine learning (ML) models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis and upper GI bleeding, particularly in emergency settings, to achieve early intervention and improve outcomes. In this retrospective study, we analyzed the electronic health records of adult patients with cirrhosis who presented at an emergency department (ED) with GI bleeding between 2001 and 2019. Data were divided into training and testing sets at a ratio of 90:10. The ability of three ML models-a linear regression model, an XGBoost (XGB) model, and a three-layer neural network model-to predict mortality in the patients was evaluated. A total of 16,025 patients with cirrhosis and 32,826 ED visits for upper GI bleeding were included in the study. The in-hospital and ED mortality rates were 11.2% and 2.2%, respectively. The XGB model exhibited the highest performance in predicting both in-hospital and ED mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.866 and 0.861, respectively). International normalized ratio, renal function, red blood cell distribution width, age, and white blood cell count were the strongest predictors in all the ML models. The median ED length of stay for the ED mortality group was 17.54 h (7.16-40.01 h). ML models can be used to predict mortality in patients with cirrhosis and upper GI bleeding. Of the three models, the XGB model exhibits the highest performance. Further research is required to determine the actual efficacy of our ML models in clinical settings.

Frailty is associated with 30-day mortality: a multicentre study of Swedish emergency departments

BackgroundOlder patients living with frailty have an increased risk for adverse events. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is a 9-point frailty assessment instrument that has shown promise to identify frail...

2236 Emergency department attendance stratified by cause and frailty status: a national cohort study of over 155 million patients

Abstract Introduction Data are limited on whether the causes of Emergency Department (ED) attendance and clinical outcomes vary by frailty status. Methods Using data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample, all ED attendances from 2016 to 2018 were stratified by the cause of attendance and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) category. Logistic regression was used to determine adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of ED and overall mortality. Results A total of 155,497,048 ED attendances were included, of which 125,809,960 (80.9%) had a low HFRS (&amp;lt;5), 27,205,257 (17.5%) had an intermediate HFRS (5–15) and 2,481,831 (1.6%) had a high HFRS (&amp;gt;15). The most common cause of ED attendance in the high HFRS group was infectious diseases (43.0%), followed by cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (24.0%) and respiratory diseases (10.2%). Musculoskeletal diseases were the most common cause of admission for the low HFRS group (21.2%), followed by respiratory diseases (20.6%), and gastrointestinal diseases (18.5%). On adjusted analysis, high HFRS patients had increased overall mortality (combined ED and in-hospital) across most attendance causes, compared to their low HFRS counterparts (p &amp;lt; 0.001). High HFRS patients with infectious diseases (aOR 23.88 95% CI 23.42–24.34), CVD (aOR 2.58 95% CI 2.55–2.61) and respiratory diseases (aOR 36.90 95% CI 36.18–37.62) had an increased risk of overall mortality, compared to their low-risk counterparts (p &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusions A significant proportion of patients attending the ED are frail, with the cause of attendance varying by frailty status. Frailty is associated with increased overall mortality across most attendance causes.

Changes in Emergency Department Pediatric Readiness and Mortality.

High emergency department (ED) pediatric readiness is associated with improved survival, but the impact of changes to ED readiness is unknown. To evaluate the association of changes in ED pediatric readiness at US trauma centers between 2013 and 2021 with pediatric mortality. This retrospective cohort study was performed from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2021, at EDs of trauma centers in 48 states and the District of Columbia. Participants included injured children younger than 18 years with admission or injury-related death at a participating trauma center, including transfers to other trauma centers. Data analysis was performed from May 2023 to January 2024. Change in ED pediatric readiness, measured using the weighted Pediatric Readiness Score (wPRS, range 0-100, with higher scores denoting greater readiness) from national assessments in 2013 and 2021. Change groups included high-high (wPRS ≥93 on both assessments), low-high (wPRS <93 in 2013 and wPRS ≥93 in 2021), high-low (wPRS ≥93 in 2013 and wPRS <93 in 2021), and low-low (wPRS <93 on both assessments). The primary outcome was lives saved vs lost, according to ED and in-hospital mortality. The risk-adjusted association between changes in ED readiness and mortality was evaluated using a hierarchical, mixed-effects logistic regression model based on a standardized risk-adjustment model for trauma, with a random slope-random intercept to account for clustering by the initial ED. The primary sample included 467 932 children (300 024 boys [64.1%]; median [IQR] age, 10 [4 to 15] years; median [IQR] Injury Severity Score, 4 [4 to 15]) at 417 trauma centers. Observed mortality by ED readiness change group was 3838 deaths of 144 136 children (2.7%) in the low-low ED group, 1804 deaths of 103 767 children (1.7%) in the high-low ED group, 1288 deaths of 64 544 children (2.0%) in the low-high ED group, and 2614 deaths of 155 485 children (1.7%) in the high-high ED group. After risk adjustment, high-readiness EDs (persistent or change to) had 643 additional lives saved (95% CI, -328 to 1599 additional lives saved). Low-readiness EDs (persistent or change to) had 729 additional preventable deaths (95% CI, -373 to 1831 preventable deaths). Secondary analysis suggested that a threshold of wPRS 90 or higher may optimize the number of lives saved. Among 716 trauma centers that took both assessments, the median (IQR) wPRS decreased from 81 (63 to 94) in 2013 to 77 (64 to 93) in 2021 because of reductions in care coordination and quality improvement. Although the findings of this study of injured children in US trauma centers were not statistically significant, they suggest that trauma centers should increase their level of ED pediatric readiness to reduce mortality and increase the number of pediatric lives saved after injury.

Sepsis Alert Systems, Mortality, and Adherence in Emergency Departments

Early detection and management of sepsis are crucial for patient survival. Emergency departments (EDs) play a key role in sepsis management but face challenges in timely response due to high patient volumes. Sepsis alert systems are proposed to expedite diagnosis and treatment initiation per the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines. To review and analyze the association of sepsis alert systems in EDs with patient outcomes. A thorough search was conducted in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 2004, to November 19, 2023. Studies that evaluated sepsis alert systems specifically designed for adult ED patients were evaluated. Inclusion criteria focused on peer-reviewed, full-text articles in English that reported on mortality, ICU admissions, hospital stay duration, and sepsis management adherence. Exclusion criteria included studies that lacked a control group or quantitative reports. The review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline. Two independent reviewers conducted the data extraction using a standardized form. Any disagreements were resolved through discussion. The data were synthesized using a random-effects model due to the expected heterogeneity among the included studies. Key outcomes included mortality, intensive care unit admissions, hospital stay duration, and adherence to the sepsis bundle. Of 3281 initially identified studies, 22 (0.67%) met inclusion criteria, encompassing 19 580 patients. Sepsis alert systems were associated with reduced mortality risk (risk ratio [RR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.91) and length of hospital stay (standardized mean difference [SMD], -0.15; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.11). These systems were also associated with better adherence to sepsis bundle elements, notably in terms of shorter time to fluid administration (SMD, -0.42; 95% CI, -0.52 to -0.32), blood culture (SMD, -0.31; 95% CI, -0.40 to -0.21), antibiotic administration (SMD, -0.34; 95% CI, -0.39 to -0.29), and lactate measurement (SMD, -0.15; 95% CI, -0.22 to -0.08). Electronic alerts were particularly associated with reduced mortality (RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.92) and adherence with blood culture guidelines (RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.27). These findings suggest that sepsis alert systems in EDs were associated with better patient outcomes along with better adherence to sepsis management protocols. These systems hold promise for enhancing ED responses to sepsis, potentially leading to better patient outcomes.

Injury characteristics and mortality in an emergency department in Ethiopia: a single-center observational study

IntroductionAn injury is described as any damage to the body that impairs health, and its severity can span from mild to life-threatening. On a global scale, injuries account for approximately 4.4 million deaths annually and are anticipated to become the seventh leading cause of death by 2030. In Ethiopia, injuries account for 7% of all deaths, with one of the world's highest rates of road traffic injuries. This study, undertaken at a primary trauma centre in the capital of Ethiopia, aimed to explore the characteristics of injured patients and emergency department mortality as the patient outcome. Understanding the patterns and outcomes of injuries helps to anticipate needs, prioritize patients, and allocate resources effectively.MethodsA retrospective single-center observational study utilised patient records from September 2020 to August 2021 at Addis Ababa Burn Emergency and Trauma Hospital, located in Ethiopia. A structured checklist facilitated the data collection. All patients arriving in the ED from September 2020 to August 2021 were eligible for the study while incomplete records (missing > 20% of wanted data elements) were excluded.ResultOf the 3502 injured patients recorded during the study period, 317 were selected. The mean patient age was 30 years, with 78.5% being male. About 8% arrived the emergency department within an hour after the injury. Ambulances transported 38.8% of patients; 58.5% of these were referred from other facilities. The predominant mechanism of injury both in and outside Addis Ababa was pedestrian road traffic injuries (31.4% and 38%). The predominant injury type was fractures (33.8%). The mortality rate was 5%, of which half were pedestrian road traffic incidents.ConclusionPedestrian road traffic injuries were the main cause of injury in and outside of Addis Ababa. A small proportion of patients arrived at the emergency department within the first hour after an injury event. A significant proportion of ambulance-transported patients were referred from other facilities rather than directly from the scene. The overall mortality rate was high, with pedestrian road traffic injury accounting for half of the proportion.

Unveiling therapeutic dynamics: An in-depth comparative analysis of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies and favipiravir in alleviating COVID-19 outpatients impacts among middle-aged and special populations (MA-FAST)

BackgroundNeutralizing monoclonal antibodies (NMabs) are recognized for their efficacy against non-severe COVID-19. However, spike protein mutations may confer resistance. This study evaluates the effectiveness of favipiravir (FPV) versus NMabs in preventing severe COVID-19 in special populations. MethodsA retrospective cohort was conducted on middle-aged, elderly, diabetic, or obese patients with COVID-19 treated with either FPV or NMabs. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used for analysis. ResultsThe study included 1410 patients, resulting in four cohorts: middle-aged (36), elderly (48), diabetic (46), and obese (28) post-PSM. No significant differences were noted in 28-day emergency department (ED) visits across all groups between NMabs and FPV treatments, despite lower immunity in the FPV group. However, the diabetic group treated with FPV had higher 28-day hospitalization and oxygen supplemental, with no differences in the other groups. Intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, invasive mechanical ventilation, and mortality rates were similar between the two treatments. ConclusionsEarly dose-adjusted FPV showed no difference from NMabs in preventing ED visits, ICU admissions, ventilator needs, or mortality among patients with major comorbidities. Diabetic patients on FPV experienced higher hospitalizations and oxygen needs, with no observed differences in other groups. FPV may be a viable alternative, especially in settings with limited resources.

EFFICACY OF A SEPSIS CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM IN IDENTIFYING PATIENTS WITH SEPSIS IN THE EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT.

Background: Early prediction of sepsis onset is crucial for reducing mortality and the overall cost burden of sepsis treatment. Currently, few effective and accurate prediction tools are available for sepsis. Hence, in this study, we developed an effective sepsis clinical decision support system (S-CDSS) to assist emergency physicians to predict sepsis. Methods: This study included patients who had visited the emergency department (ED) of Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital, Taiwan, between January 1, 2020, and June 31, 2022. The patients were divided into a derivation cohort (n = 70,758) and a validation cohort (n = 27,545). The derivation cohort was subjected to 6-fold stratified cross-validation, reserving 20% of the data (n = 11,793) for model testing. The primary study outcome was a sepsis prediction ( International Classification of Diseases , Tenth Revision , Clinical Modification ) before discharge from the ED. The S-CDSS incorporated the LightGBM algorithm to ensure timely and accurate prediction of sepsis. The validation cohort was subjected to multivariate logistic regression to identify the associations of S-CDSS-based high- and medium-risk alerts with clinical outcomes in the overall patient cohort. For each clinical outcome in high- and medium-risk patients, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and accuracy of S-CDSS-based predictions. Results: The S-CDSS was integrated into our hospital information system. The system featured three risk warning labels (red, yellow, and white, indicating high, medium, and low risks, respectively) to alert emergency physicians. The sensitivity and specificity of the S-CDSS in the derivation cohort were 86.9% and 92.5%, respectively. In the validation cohort, high- and medium-risk alerts were significantly associated with all clinical outcomes, exhibiting high prediction specificity for intubation, general ward admission, intensive care unit admission, ED mortality, and in-hospital mortality (93.29%, 97.32%, 94.03%, 93.04%, and 93.97%, respectively). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the S-CDSS can effectively identify patients with suspected sepsis in the ED. Furthermore, S-CDSS-based predictions appear to be strongly associated with clinical outcomes in patients with sepsis.

Triage implementation in Pakistan: a case of broken healthcare system

Madam, The death toll due to road traffic accidents (RTA) in Pakistan reached 28,170 in 2020, according to WHO. This accounts for 1.93% of all deaths in the World. (1) Mortality due to RTA is an ever-increasing concern and its management, especially in Pakistan, is still a bigger concern. The efficient way of dealing with Trauma is by following globally accepted evidence-based “Advanced Trauma Life Support” guidelines. Triage being the first step in ATLS literally means “to sort”. In other words, identifying the greatest good for greatest numbers. The Emergency Department (ED) rule must be to manage patients based on the severity of problems and not on the order of arrival. Death can be prevented in the patients who benefit the most by getting medical attention the earliest. All the patients escorted and rescued from the place of incident should be sorted rapidly and given a colour-coded tag based on urgency. Onsite triage is the most critical life saving measure. A Karachi based study concluded that most paramedics in ambulances had poor knowledge of pre-hospital management and 72.3% thought they could not do triage. (2) Similarly, another study at the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital in Karachi showed concerningly poor knowledge of triage.(3) Only 5 CPSP accredited public hospitals in Pakistan have emergency medicine as a separate field which results in lack of triage implementation as EDs of most hospitals are run by internal medicine professionals and general surgeons. Simply, implementing triage has shown to reduce and ED mortality (by 3.80%), resources’ utilisation, and length of stay.(4) Punjab, the development hub of Pakistan, provides 22 public hospitals, including only 12 fully functional ones, for dealing with trauma patients. DHQs bearing the burden of all trauma patients of districts are level-III trauma centres lacking in specialised surgical care and categorization of paediatric and adult patients. Other independent trauma care facilities are level-IV trauma centres which act as a relay to stabilise the patients before they are transferred to a better facility. A level-I trauma centre alone can increase 25% survival rate of trauma patients, but unfortunately Pakistan does not have a single level-I trauma centre. (5) Therefore, all Rescue staff must be trained regularly for future enactment of triage to alleviate RTA associated mortality along with upgrading of trauma centres to level-I.

Emergency medical service use at a pediatric center in Turkey, during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

This study aimed to evaluate aspects of pediatric patients presenting to a hospital in Turkey via emergency ambulance services, including incidence of visits to the hospital, acuity of illness and most common diagnoses, during the one-year period before and after the onset of the coronavrrus dsease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This was a retrospective and single center analysis of children, transported by Emergency Medical Services to the Emergency Department (ED) of a children's hospital in Turkey, between 10 March 2019 and 11 March 2021. Percentage of high acuity group (68.1% vs.76.9%) during pandemic period was significantly lower than prepandemic period (p < 0.001). On the contrary, the percentage of patients using emergency ambulance service with a low level of acuity increased during the pandemic period compared to the prepandemic period (31.9% vs. 23.1%) (p < 0.001). A significant decrease was observed in the cases of lower respiratory tract infections, febrile status epilepticus and excessive alcohol use during the pandemic period. No significant differences were found hospitalizations requiring PICU and mortality in ED during the pandemic period. During the COVID-19 pandemic; also, a decrease in admissions was observed for those with high-risk conditions. On the contrary, an increase was detected in patients with low acuity levels. Efforts should be made to ensure access to safe and quality emergency care during the pandemic.

Problems in Conducting Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis

We read with great interest the original article “The Relationship Between Procalcitonin Level and Short Term Mortality in Emergency Department” by Cehreli et al. (1). A high initial level of procalcitonin (PCT) is a sensitive marker of bacterial infection, and the degree of PCT elevation can determine which patients are at greater risk of adverse outcomes. In this study, the authors wanted to analyse whether there was an association between PCT levels and seven-day mortality in patients whom PCT levels were measured in the emergency department. However, we think that there are some serious methodological mistakes.

Impact of extreme weather events on healthcare utilization and mortality in the United States.

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events. Yet a systematic analysis of post-disaster healthcare utilization and outcomes for severe weather and climate disasters, as tracked by the US government, is lacking. Following exposure to 42 US billion-dollar weather disasters (severe storm, flood, flood/severe storm, tropical cyclone and winter storm) between 2011 and 2016, we used a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to quantify changes in the rates of emergency department (ED) visits, nonelective hospitalizations and mortality between fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in affected compared to matched control counties in post-disaster weeks 1, 1-2 and 3-6. Overall, disasters were associated with higher rates of ED utilization in affected counties in post-disaster week 1 (DID of 1.22% (95% CI, 0.20% to 2.25%; P < 0.020)) through week 2. Nonelective hospitalizations were unchanged. Mortality was higher in affected counties in week 1 (DID of 1.40% (95% CI, 0.08% to 2.74%; P = 0.037)) and persisted for 6 weeks. Counties with the greatest loss and damage experienced greater increases in ED and mortality rates compared to all affected counties. Thus, billion-dollar weather disasters are associated with excess ED visits and mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. Tracking these outcomes is important for adaptation that protects patients and communities, health system resilience and policy.

Changes in emergency department visits and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective analysis of 956 hospitals

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, many non-COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits were indirectly affected. ED visits and mortality were assessed during different pandemic time periods compared with pre-pandemic.MethodsThe study used data from 41 million Iran Health Insurance Organization members. The outcomes were non-COVID-19 ED visits and associated mortality in 956 hospitals. An analysis of ED visits was conducted both for all-cause and cause-specific conditions: cardiovascular diseases (CVD), mental and substance use disorders, unintentional injuries, and self-harm. In addition, total in-hospital ED mortality was analyzed. A negative binomial regression and a Poisson regression with a log link were used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of visits and mortality relative risk (RR).Results1,789,831 ED visits and 12,377 deaths were reported during the study. Pre-pandemic (Sep 2019 to Feb 2020), there were 2,767 non-COVID-19 visits rate per million person-month, which decreased to 1,884 during the first COVID-19 wave with a national lockdown from Feb 20 to Apr 19, 2020 (IRR 0.68, [0.56–0.84]). The non-COVID-19 ED mortality risk was 8.17 per 1,000 visit-month during the pre-pandemic period, rising to 12.80 during the first wave of COVID-19 (RR 1.57, [1.49–165]). Non-COVID-19 ED visit rates decreased during the first pandemic year from Sep 2020 to Feb 2021 (IRR 0.73, [0.63–0.86]), but increased after COVID-19 vaccination two years later from Sep 2021 to Feb 2022 (IRR 1.11, [0.96–0.17]). The total ED mortality risk for non-COVID-19 was significantly higher after the COVID-19 outbreak in the first (RR 1.66, [1.59–1.72]) and second years (RR 1.27, [1.22–1.32]) of the pandemic. The visit incidence rate for mental health and substance use disorders declined from 8.18 per million person-month to 4.57 (IRR 0.53, [0.32 to 0.90]) in the first wave. In the second year, unintentional injury visits increased significantly compared with pre-pandemic (IRR 1.63, [1.30–2.03]). As compared to before the pandemic, there was no significant change in CVD and self-harm visit rates during the pandemic. Cardiac arrest was the leading cause of death in Iran hospitals’ EDs.ConclusionIn the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-COVID-19 hospital ED visits declined and mortality risk increased. Despite two years since the COVID-19 outbreak, non-COVID-19 ED mortality risk remains high.

Short-term prognosis of polypharmacy in elderly patients treated in emergency departments: results from the EDEN project.

Polypharmacy is a growing phenomenon among elderly individuals. However, there is little information about the frequency of polypharmacy among the elderly population treated in emergency departments (EDs) and its prognostic effect. This study aims to determine the prevalence and short-term prognostic effect of polypharmacy in elderly patients treated in EDs. A retrospective analysis of the Emergency Department Elderly in Needs (EDEN) project's cohort was performed. This registry included all elderly patients who attended 52 Spanish EDs for any condition. Mild and severe polypharmacy was defined as the use of 5-9 drugs and ⩾10 drugs, respectively. The assessed outcomes were ED revisits, hospital readmissions, and mortality 30 days after discharge. Crude and adjusted logistic regression analyses, including the patient's comorbidities, were performed. A total of 25,557 patients were evaluated [mean age: 78 (IQR: 71-84) years]; 10,534 (41.2%) and 5678 (22.2%) patients presented with mild and severe polypharmacy, respectively. In the adjusted analysis, mild polypharmacy and severe polypharmacy were associated with an increase in ED revisits [odds ratio (OR) 1.13 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.23) and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.24-1.51)] and hospital readmissions [OR 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04-1.35) and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.16-1.60)], respectively, compared to non-polypharmacy. Mild and severe polypharmacy were not associated with increased 30-day mortality [OR 1.05 (95% CI: 0.89-2.26) and OR 0.89 (95% CI: 0.72-1.12)], respectively. Polypharmacy was common among the elderly treated in EDs and associated with increased risks of ED revisits and hospital readmissions ⩽30 days but not with an increased risk of 30-day mortality. Patients with polypharmacy had a higher risk of ED revisits and hospital readmissions ⩽30 days after discharge.

Pulmonary embolism and risk factors of ICU admission: systematic review

To forecast mortality and identify adult patients who required admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), we compared the efficacy of the most widely used early warning scores. The present review assessed the pulmonary embolism and risk factors of ICU admission; systematic review. A search of the literature was conducted in the bibliographic databases PubMed and EMBASE between 2009 and 2022. Each reviewer verified independently that each possibly relevant title and abstract qualified. There were nine studies that were included in the review. National early warning score (NEWS) was the best indicator of ICU admission; however, the modified early warning score (MEWS) performed better in sepsis patients. According to emergency department (ED) Mortality, the NEWS was the most accurate score for predicting mortality in the entire ED population, and the mortality in emergency department sepsis score was the most accurate measure for patients with sepsis. For all endpoints, NEWS and MEWS had good outcomes in the ICU and ED. Numerous investigations should be conducted utilizing various prognostic scores on ED and ICU patients. Anemia in patients with venous thrombosis was associated with a higher risk of ICU admission and mortality.