Mortality In Emergency Department Sepsis Research Articles

Comparison of qSOFA, MEDS, and APACHE II Scores in Early Identification of Sepsis for Patients with 28 days Mortality and ICU Admission: A cross-sectional Study

Introduction: Sepsis is a life-threatening infection that results in organ dysfunction due to an increased pathogen load, necessitating urgent intervention. There is a gap in clinicians’ ability to identify septic patients at high-risk with poor outcomes, highlighting the need for validated predictive scores for early intervention, favourable outcomes, and prompt recovery. Aim: To validate the predictive capacity of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE 2) scores in patients with 28- day mortality and in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients due to sepsis. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 150 septic patients at the Department of Emergency Medicine, Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research in Chennai, India, between June and December 2022. Parameters assessed included Respiratory Rate (RR), Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP), temperature, White Blood Cell (WBC) count, platelet count, bilirubin, and creatinine. Descriptive analysis of age, gender, source, RR, GCS, SBP, qSOFA, MEDS, APACHE 2 in 28-day mortality, and ICU patients. Positive correlation and good predictivity of predictive scores (qSOFA, MEDS, APACHE 2) were analysed using Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient (SRCCRs) statistical test in 28-day mortality and ICU patients. Results: A total of 150 septic patients (male: female-93:57) with an average age of 57.07±14.4 years were included. Urosepsis was the most common (n=51), followed by respiratory sepsis (n=48). Of these, 96 patients were admitted to the ICU, and 54 patients experienced 28-day mortality. The average and median values of RR were 27.1±7.64 breaths/minute (b/m) and 26 b/m, respectively. SBP values were 106.13±30.47 mmHg and 110 mmHg, respectively. Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP) values were 66±16.51 mmHg and 60 mmHg, respectively. The average and median values of GCS were 12.75±3.92 and 15, respectively. The average for qSOFA was 29.1±0.025, with a median of 28; for MEDS, the average was 7.99±5.89, with a median of 7; and for APACHE 2, the average was 16.74±9.64, with a median of 15. Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient (SRCCRs) demonstrated a strong positive correlation and good predictive validity between qSOFA, MEDS, and APACHE 2 scores in 28- day mortality and ICU patients (<0.001). Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) analysis indicated good predictive validity for qSOFA in 28-day mortality and ICU patients. Conclusion: qSOFA exhibited a positive correlation and good predictive validity compared to MEDS and APACHE 2 in both 28-day mortality and ICU patients (<0.001). This study highlights the utility and applicability of qSOFA at the bedside for initial triage, as it can be quickly employed with minimal information.

The comparison score of SPEEDS, MEDS, SOFA, APACHE II, and SAPS II as predictor of sepsis mortality: A Systematic Review

We performed the comparison of characteristics and values under the curve, including Sepsis Patient Evaluation Emergency Department Score (SPEEDS), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II). We searched PubMed, Science direct, ProQuest, and EBSCO for identify full-text English-language papers published between 2012-2022. We discovered that each of the five-scoring lead to mortality forecasts in sepsis patients. MEDS predicted mortality in sepsis patients better than SAPS II after 28 days but the SPEEDS was more accurate than MEDS. The SOFA score predicts mortality better than the APACHE II. APACHE II has lesser validity than SAPS II. The AUC SOFA scores have greater in diagnosing sepsis patients’ mortality than other scores. However, they are overstated, inefficient, and non-cost-effective, making SOFA scoring unfavourable in enhancing healthcare quality.

Identifying Predictors Associated with Risk of Death or Admission to Intensive Care Unit in Internal Medicine Patients with Sepsis: A Comparison of Statistical Models and Machine Learning Algorithms.

Background: Sepsis is a time-dependent disease: the early recognition of patients at risk for poor outcome is mandatory. Aim: To identify prognostic predictors of the risk of death or admission to intensive care units in a consecutive sample of septic patients, comparing different statistical models and machine learning algorithms. Methods: Retrospective study including 148 patients discharged from an Italian internal medicine unit with a diagnosis of sepsis/septic shock and microbiological identification. Results: Of the total, 37 (25.0%) patients reached the composite outcome. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at admission (odds ratio (OR): 1.83; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41-2.39; p < 0.001), delta SOFA (OR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.28-2.10; p < 0.001), and the alert, verbal, pain, unresponsive (AVPU) status (OR: 5.96; 95% CI: 2.13-16.67; p < 0.001) were identified through the multivariable logistic model as independent predictors of the composite outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.894; 95% CI: 0.840-0.948. In addition, different statistical models and machine learning algorithms identified further predictive variables: delta quick-SOFA, delta-procalcitonin, mortality in emergency department sepsis, mean arterial pressure, and the Glasgow Coma Scale. The cross-validated multivariable logistic model with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty identified 5 predictors; and recursive partitioning and regression tree (RPART) identified 4 predictors with higher AUC (0.915 and 0.917, respectively); the random forest (RF) approach, including all evaluated variables, obtained the highest AUC (0.978). All models' results were well calibrated. Conclusions: Although structurally different, each model identified similar predictive covariates. The classical multivariable logistic regression model was the most parsimonious and calibrated one, while RPART was the easiest to interpret clinically. Finally, LASSO and RF were the costliest in terms of number of variables identified.

Scoring Systems to Evaluate the Mortality Risk of Patients with Emphysematous Cystitis: A Retrospective Observational Study

Emphysematous cystitis (EC) is a complicated urinary tract infection (UTI) characterized by gas formation within the bladder wall and lumen. Immunocompetent people are less likely to suffer from complicated UTIs, but EC usually occurs in women with poorly controlled diabetes mellitus (DM). Other risk factors of EC include recurrent UTI, neurogenic bladder disorder, blood supply disorders, and prolonged catheterization, but DM is still the most important of all aspects. Our study investigated clinical scores in predicting clinical outcomes of patients with EC. Our analysis is unique in predicting EC clinical outcomes by using scoring system performance. We retrospectively collected EC patient data from the electronic clinical database of Taichung Veterans General Hospital between January 2007 and December 2020. Urinary cultures and computerized tomography confirmed EC. In addition, we investigated the demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory data for analysis. Finally, we used a variety of clinical scoring systems as a predictor of clinical outcomes. A total of 35 patients had confirmed EC, including 11 males (31.4%) and 24 females (68.6%), with a mean age of 69.1 ± 11.4 years. Their hospital stay averaged 19.9 ± 15.5 days. The in-hospital mortality rate was 22.9%. The Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score was 5.4 ± 4.7 for survivors and 11.8 ± 5.3 for non-survivors (p = 0.005). For mortality risk prediction, the AUC of ROC was 0.819 for MEDS and 0.685 for Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS). The hazard ratio of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of REMS for EC patients was1.457 (p = 0.011) and 1.374 (p = 0.025), respectively. Physicians must pay attention to high-risk patients according to clinical clues and arrange imaging studies as soon as possible to confirm the diagnosis of EC. MEDS and REMS are helpful for clinical staff in predicting the clinical outcome of EC patients. If EC patients feature higher scores of MEDS (≥12) and REMS (≥10), they will have higher mortality.

A combination of the Modified Early Warning Score and the Korean Triage and Acuity Scale as a triage tool in patients with infection.

We evaluated the utility of the Korean Modified Early Warning Score (KMEWS), which combines the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the Korean Triage and Acuity Scale (KTAS), as a triage tool to screen for infection in patients who visit the emergency department. We retrospectively reviewed data extracted from electronic medical records. Patients aged ≥18 years with an infection who were admitted to the hospital via the emergency department between January 2018 and December 2019 were eligible for inclusion. The KMEWS score was calculated as the sum of the KTAS level and the MEWS score. We generated receiver operating characteristic curves and determined the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the KMEWS, KTAS, MEWS, and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) scales. The primary outcome was septic shock, and secondary outcomes were intensive care unit admission and in-hospital mortality. The AUC values (95% confidence interval) for predicting septic shock were as follows: KMEWS, 0.910 (0.902-0.918); MEWS, 0.896 (0.887-0.904); KTAS score, 0.809 (0.798-0.819); and MEDS, 0.927 (0.919-0.934). The AUC values (95% confidence interval) for predicting in-hospital mortality were as follows: KMEWS, 0.752 (0.740-0.764); MEWS, 0.717 (0.704-0.729); KTAS score, 0.764 (0.752-0.776); and MEDS, 0.844 (0.834-0.854). The AUC values (95% confidence interval) for predicting intensive care unit admission were as follows: KMEWS, 0.826 (0.816-0.837); MEWS, 0.782 (0.770-0.793); KTAS score, 0.821 (0.810-0.831); and MEDS, 0.839 (0.829-0.849). The KMEWS, which is a combination of the MEWS and the KTAS scores, might be a useful triage tool in emergency department patients who present with infection, particularly for predicting septic shock.

Effects of vitamin D insufficiency on sepsis severity and risk of hospitalisation in emergency department patients: a cross-sectional study

ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) level on sepsis severity and risk of hospitalisation in emergency department (ED) septic patients when categorised as vitamin D insufficiency according to...

Performance of Scoring Systems in Predicting Clinical Outcomes of Patients with Emphysematous Pyelonephritis: A 14-Year Hospital-Based Study.

Background: Emphysematous pyelonephritis (EPN) is a rare but severe necrotizing infection causing there to be gas in the pelvicalyceal system, renal parenchyma, and perirenal or pararenal space. Physicians should attend to EPN because of its life-threatening septic complications. The overall mortality rate has been reported to be as high as 20−40%. In addition, most patients had diabetes mellitus (DM) and obstructive uropathy. The most common isolated microorganism is Escherichia coli. This study aims to analyze the risk factors and performance of scoring systems in predicting the clinical outcomes of patients with EPN. Materials and Methods: We collected the data of patients with EPN in this single hospital-based retrospective study from the electronic medical records of Taichung Veterans General Hospital between January 2007 and December 2020. Radiological investigations of abdominal computed tomography (CT) confirmed the diagnosis of EPN. In addition, we analyzed demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory data. Finally, we used various scoring systems to predict clinical outcomes. Results: A total of fifty patients with EPN, whose diagnoses were confirmed through CT, were enrolled in the study. There were 18 males (36%) and 32 females (64%), with a mean age of 64.3 ± 11.3 years. The in-hospital mortality rate was 16%. A DM of 34 (68%) patients was the most common comorbidity. Fever was the most common symptom, found in 25 (50%) patients. The Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score was 4.64 ± 3.67 for survivors and 14.25 ± 5.34 for non-survivors (p < 0.001). The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was 3.64 ± 2.33 for survivors and 7.13 ± 4.85 for non-survivors (p = 0.046). The Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) was 5.81 ± 1.97 for survivors and 9.13 ± 3.87 for non-survivors (p = 0.024). Regarding performance of mortality risk prediction, the AUC of ROC was 0.932 for MEDS, 0.747 for REMS, and 0.72 for NEWS. Conclusions: MEDS, REMS, and NEWS could be prognostic tools for the prediction of the clinical outcomes of patients with EPN. MEDS showed the best sound performance. In those with higher scores in MEDS (≥12), REMS (≥10), and NEWS (≥8), we recommended aggressive management and appropriate antimicrobial therapy as soon as possible to reduce mortality. Further large-scale studies are required to gain a deep understanding of this disease and to ensure patient safety.

Predictive Value of Combination of Procalcitonin and Predisposition, Infection, Response, and Organ Dysfunction (PIRO) System in Septic Patients with Positive Blood Cultures in the Emergency Department.

PurposeProcalcitonin and predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) system have high predictive value for the prognosis of critically ill patients. There are few studies on the predictive value of patients with positive blood cultures. The aim of the study was to evaluate risk stratification and sepsis-related mortality in patients with positive blood cultures via procalcitonin (PCT) combined with the PIRO system in emergency departments (ED).MethodsA total of 1074 patients with positive blood cultures were admitted to Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital ED from December 2017 to October 2020. Their serum PCT was recorded, along with a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and PIRO score to predict the prognosis of septic patients with positive blood culture in terms of ICU (intensive care unit) admission, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) development, and 28-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic value of the scoring systems.ResultsA total of 978 patients met the inclusion criteria. PCT, MEDS, APACHE II, and PIRO scores were found to independently predict ICU-admission, MODS development, and 28-day mortality (P<0.05), whereas SOFA did not. The AUC values of the PCT, MEDS, APACHE II, and PIRO scores for ICU-admission were 0.620, 0.740, 0.780, and 0.751, respectively. In the prediction of 28-day mortality, the AUC values of PCT, MEDS, APACHE II, and PIRO were 0.782, 0.745, 0.805, and 0.831, respectively. The AUC values combined PCT and PIRO system in predicting MODS and 28-day mortality were better than when predicting ICU-admission.ConclusionThis study indicates that PCT combined with the PIRO scoring system has a higher predictive value and is superior in predicting MODS and 28-day mortality in septic patients with positive blood cultures.

An Evaluation of the Predictive Value of Sepsis Patient Evaluation in the Emergency Department (SPEED) Score in Estimating 28-Day Mortality Among Patients With Sepsis Presenting to the Emergency Department: A Prospective Observational Study.

Background and objectiveSepsis is a life-threatening medical emergency and a significant cause of mortality. Risk stratification scores for sepsis can be unsuitable for use in the emergency department (ED) due to their complexity, and an appropriate solution has yet to be found. In this study, the predictive value of the Sepsis Patient Evaluation in the Emergency Department (SPEED) score in estimating 28-day mortality was assessed among patients with sepsis presenting to the ED, in order to determine its suitability as an efficient risk stratification system.Materials and methodsThis was a single-center, prospective observational study conducted at an urban tertiary care center. We included patients presenting to the ED with suspected or confirmed sepsis who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria of our study. The patients were evaluated with the following scoring systems on arrival: the SPEED score; Predisposition, Infection, Response, and Organ dysfunction (PIRO) score; and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score; the patients were subsequently followed up on the 28th day to record the final outcomes with regard to mortality and discharge rates.ResultsThis study included 127 patients in total. The median age of the study population was 49 years, and the 28-day mortality rate was 50.4%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the SPEED score for predicting mortality was 0.899 (95% CI: 0.847-0.951). In comparison, the AUROC for MEDS and PIRO scores was 0.857 (95% CI: 0.793-0.92) and 0.895 (95% CI: 0.838-0.951), respectively. Based on the DeLong test, no significant difference was found in the diagnostic performances with respect to these scores.ConclusionThe SPEED score is a simple and handy parameter that can be used for the early and appropriate risk stratification of patients with sepsis in the ED.

Performance of Scoring Systems in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Bacteremia of Listeria monocytogenes: A 9-Year Hospital-Based Study.

Simple SummaryListeria monocytogenes (LM) may develop life-threatening invasive infections with a mortality rate of 25–30%. The aim of this study is to investigate the scores of LM bacteremia to predict the clinical outcomes. A total of 38 patients were studied, including 16 males (42.1%) and 22 females (57.9%), with a mean age of 59.9 ± 19.6 years. The hospital stay averaged 23.3 ± 20.9 days with an in-hospital mortality rate of 36.8%. The Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) Score was 6.6 ± 4.0 for survivors and 12.4 ± 4.4 for non-survivors (P < 0.001). The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was 3.9 ± 2.8 for survivors and 7.8 ± 3.1 for non-survivors (P = 0.001). The AUC of ROC was 0.829 for MEDS and 0.815 for NEWS in predicting the mortality risk. MEDS (≥10) and NEWS (≥8) were both good predictors of the clinical outcome in LM bacteremia. Further large-scale studies are required to gain a deeper understanding of this disease and to ensure patient safety.Background: Listeria monocytogenes (LM) is a facultative anaerobe, Gram-positive bacillus which is widely distributed in nature, and can be separated from soil, water, and rotten vegetables. Immunocompetent people are less likely to suffer from LM infection or may only show gastrointestinal symptoms. However, immunocompromised elderly people, pregnant women, and newborns may develop life-threatening invasive infections. The mortality rate of LM infection is as high as 25–30%. The aim of this study is to investigate clinical scores of patients with bacteremia of LM confirmed by one or more blood cultures. We analyzed their demographics and laboratory findings in relation to their clinical outcomes. Materials and Methods: This was a hospital-based retrospective study on patients with bacteremia of LM. Data were collected from the electronic clinical database of Taichung Veterans General Hospital between January 2012 and December 2020. Bacteremia of LM was confirmed by at least one blood culture. Demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory data were collected for analysis. A variety of clinical scoring systems were used to predict the clinical outcome. Results: A total of 39 patients had confirmed bacteremia of LM. Among them, 1 neonatal patient was excluded. The remaining 38 patients were studied. They included 16 males (42.1%) and 22 females (57.9%), with a mean age of 59.9 ± 19.6 years. Their hospital stay averaged 23.3 ± 20.9 days. The in-hospital mortality rate was 36.8%. Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) Score was 6.6 ± 4.0 for survivors and 12.4 ± 4.4 for non-survivors (P < 0.001). The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was 3.9 ± 2.8 for survivors and 7.8 ± 3.1 for non-survivors (P = 0.001). Regarding the prediction of mortality risk, the AUC of ROC was 0.829 for MEDS and 0.815 for NEWS. Conclusions: MEDS and NEWS were both good predictors of the clinical outcome in LM bacteremic patients. In those with higher scores of MEDS (≥10) and NEWS (≥8), we recommended an early goal-directed therapy and appropriate antibiotic treatment as early as possible to reduce mortality. Further large-scale studies are required to gain a deeper understanding of this disease and to ensure patient safety.

A comparison of predictors for mortality and bacteraemia in patients suspected of infection

BackgroundStratification by clinical scores of patients suspected of infection can be used to support decisions on treatment and diagnostic workup. Seven clinical scores, SepsisFinder (SF), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Sequential Orgen Failure Assessment (SOFA), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS), quick SOFA (qSOFA), Shapiro Decision Rule (SDR) and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), were evaluated for their ability to predict 30-day mortality and bacteraemia and for their ability to identify a low risk group, where blood culture may not be cost-effective and a high risk group where direct-from-blood PCR (dfbPCR) may be cost effective.MethodsRetrospective data from two Danish and an Israeli hospital with a total of 1816 patients were used to calculate the seven scores.ResultsSF had higher Area Under the Receiver Operating curve than the clinical scores for prediction of mortality and bacteraemia, significantly so for MEDS, qSOFA and SIRS. For mortality predictions SF also had significantly higher area under the curve than SDR. In a low risk group identified by SF, consisting of 33% of the patients only 1.7% had bacteraemia and mortality was 4.2%, giving a cost of € 1976 for one positive result by blood culture. This was higher than the cost of € 502 of one positive dfbPCR from a high risk group consisting of 10% of the patients, where 25.3% had bacteraemia and mortality was 24.2%.ConclusionThis may motivate a health economic study of whether resources spent on low risk blood cultures might be better spent on high risk dfbPCR.

Value of procalcitonin and critical illness score in etiological diagnosis and prognosis of sepsis caused by intra-abdominal infections

To compare the early and late predictive values of critical illness score (CIS) and procalcitonin (PCT) in septic patients with blood stream infection (BSI) induced by intra-abdominal infection (IAI), and to identify the value of PCT in etiological diagnosis. The clinical data of patients with at least one positive blood culture within 24 hours admission to the emergency department of China-Japan Friendship Hospital from January 2014 to December 2019 and with final diagnosis of IAI induced sepsis were enrolled. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS), Logistic organ dysfunction system (LODS), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were calculated based on the parameters on the day of admission. Differences in various indicators among different Gram-stained bacterial infections and among patients with different prognosis at 28 days or 60 days were compared. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to analyze the value of PCT in differential etiological diagnosis of IAI induced sepsis caused by single bacterial infection, and the predictive value of CIS and PCT on 28-day and 60-day death of septic patients with BSI induced by IAI. A total of 221 septic patients with IAI caused by single bacterial infection were enrolled. The 28-day mortality was 19.9% (44/221), and the 60-day mortality was 25.8% (57/221). Mortality caused by Gram-positive (G+) bacterial infection of patients was significantly higher than that caused by Gram-negative (G-) bacterial infection (28 days: 34.6% vs. 11.4%, 60 days: 42.0% vs. 16.4%, both P < 0.01). Compared with patients with G+ bacterial infection, the PCT value of patients with G- bacterial infection was higher [μg/L: 4.31 (0.71, 25.71) vs. 1.29 (0.32, 10.83), P < 0.05]. Compared with survival group, the values of CIS and PCT in death group were higher, either in 28 days or in 60 days [death group vs. survival group in 28 days: SOFA score was 6.0 (4.0, 10.0) vs. 3.0 (2.0, 5.0), MEDS score: 11 (9, 14) vs. 6 (6, 9), LODS score: 4.0 (2.0, 6.0) vs. 1.0 (0, 2.0), APACHE II score: 17.0 (15.0, 24.0) vs. 12.0 (8.0, 15.0), PCT (μg/L): 3.48 (1.01, 26.70) vs. 2.45 (0.32, 15.65); death group vs. survival group in 60 days: SOFA score: 6.0 (4.0, 10.0) vs. 3.0 (2.0, 5.0), MEDS score: 9 (6, 14) vs. 6 (6, 9), LODS score: 4.0 (1.0, 5.0) vs. 1.0 (0, 2.0), APACHE II score: 16.5 (12.0, 20.0) vs. 12.0 (8.0, 15.0), PCT (μg/L): 2.67 (0.98, 17.73) vs. 2.22 (0.31, 16.75); all P < 0.05]. ROC curve showed that: (1) the area under ROC curve (AUC) of PCT in the diagnosis of IAI induced sepsis with single bacterial infection was 0.740 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.648-0.833]. When the optimal cut-off value of PCT was 1.82 μg/L, the sensitivity of diagnosis of G- bacterial infection was 74.0%, and the specificity was 68.2%. When PCT value was higher than 10.92 μg/L, the specificity of diagnosis of G- bacterial infection could reach 81.8%. (2) In the prediction of 28-day and 60-day mortality for septic patients with BSI induced by IAI, the APACHE II score achieved the highest AUC [28 days: 0.791 (95%CI was 0.680-0.902), 60 days: 0.748 (95%CI was 0.645-0.851)]. APACHE II score higher than 14.5 could help to predict 28-day and 60-day mortality for IAI patients with negative predictive values of 94.9% and 88.5%. However, the predictive value of PCT for septic patients with BSI induced by IAI was relatively lower [28-day AUC: 0.610 (95%CI was 0.495-0.725), 60-day AUC: 0.558 (95%CI was 0.450-0.667)]. PCT is more reliable in the identification of pathogen type among IAI induced sepsis with BSI, while APACHE II score may perform better in predicting early and late mortality.

P243 Elevated presepsin levels are a marker of sepsis risk in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases receiving therapy of TNF-α blockers

Abstract Background Sepsis is a severe disease characterized by a systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SARS) associated with infection. Sepsis is registered in 1–2% of all hospitalized patients. IBD patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy have a high risk of developing sepsis. Diagnosis of sepsis is based on internationally agreed criteria. Predicting the course and outcomes of sepsis is evaluated on the MEDS (Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis) scale. Clinical studies of a new biomarker called presepsin have shown that it is a promising early and predictive marker of sepsis Aim to establish the role of presepsin as a marker of sepsis development in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) receiving therapy with genetically of TNF-α blockers. Methods The clinical status of 128 IBD patients receiving of TNF-α blockers therapy (without immunosuppressive drugs) was evaluated in the Department of IBD. 68 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 60 patients with Crohn’s disease (CD). Presepsin level (PSP) was determined in all IBD patients (100.0%). To stratify patients, the following criteria were used for baseline PSP levels (pg/ml): &amp;lt; 200 – very low risk of sepsis; - 200 - 300– low risk of sepsis; - 300 - 500– moderate risk of sepsis; - 500 - 1000 – sepsis; - ≥ 1000-severe sepsis, septic shock Results The distribution among 128 IBD patients receiving of TNF-α blockers by presepsin level was as follows: &amp;lt; 200 -75 (58,6%); - 200 – 300 – 34 (26,6%); - 300 – 500 – 19 (14,8%); - 500 - 1000 – 0 (0%); ≥ 1000 – 0 (0%). Of the 75 IBD patients receiving gibp and having a very low risk, none of the patients developed sepsis; of the 34 IBD patients with a low risk, one patient developed septicemia (2.9%). Among 19 patients with IBD with a moderate risk, the development of a septic condition occurred in 4 (21.0%) patients (HR-0.140, 95% CI 0.017 - 1.162; x2-2,800; p= 0.04997). Conclusion IBD patients receiving of TNF-α therapy, it is advisable to determine the level of presepsin in order to identify risk groups for the development of sepsis. Patients with IBD who receive of TNF-α therapy and have presepsin values in the range of 300–500 pg/ml have a significantly higher risk of developing sepsis.

The role of plasma presepsin levels in determining the incidence of septic shock and mortality in patients with sepsis.

The present study aimed to investigate the role of plasma presepsin in the early detection of septic shock and in determining the prognosis and mortality of patients with sepsis. The study was conducted in the emergency department between 1 January 2017 and 1 July 2017. A total of 106 patients 18 years of age or older who were diagnosed with sepsis according to the quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) criteria were included in this prospective study. The patients' symptoms, vital signs, additional diseases, demographic attributes, laboratory results, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) scores, imaging findings and treatments were recorded. Moreover, the patients' blood samples were collected to measure plasma presepsin, procalcitonin and CRP levels. In total, 55.7% of the patients were female. The median age of the patients was 78 (24-103) years, and their 30-day mortality rate was 67%. The presepsin level was significantly higher in the sepsis group than in the healthy control group (p < 0.001). The presepsin levels did not differ significantly between the sepsis and septic shock groups (p = 0.12). Similarly, the procalcitonin levels did not differ significantly between the sepsis and septic shock groups (p > 0.05). There was no significant difference in the presepsin, procalcitonin and CRP levels between survivor and non-survivor patients (p = 0.74). The plasma presepsin level was found to be ineffective in determining the incidence of septic shock and mortality in patients with sepsis in the emergency department.

Diagnostic and predictive value of critical illness scores and biomarkers in bloodstream infection-associated pneumonia

To compare the early and late predictive value of several critical illness scores (CISs) and biomarkers in patients with bloodstream infection (BSI)-associated pneumonia, and to identify the value of procalcitonin (PCT) in etiological diagnosis. Patients with at least one positive blood culture within 24 hours admission to department of emergency of China-Japan Friendship Hospital from January 2014 to December 2018 and with final diagnosis of pneumonia were enrolled. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS), Logistic organ dysfunction system (LODS), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were calculated based on the first parameters on the day of admission. Differences of various indicators among different Gram-stained bacterial infections and among patients with different prognosis at 28-day or 60-day were compared. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the value of biomarkers in differential diagnosis of pneumonia caused by single bacterial infection, and the predictive value of several CISs and biomarkers on 28-day and 60-day death of patients with pneumonia. Among 540 patients with pneumonia caused by single bacterial infection, 256 (47.4%) patients with Gram-positive bacteria (GPB) infection and 284 (52.6%) with Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) infection. The 28-day mortality was 29.4% (159/540) and the 60-day mortality was 36.3% (196/540). PCT level was significantly higher in patients with GNB infection than that in GPB infected patients [μg/L: 1.99 (0.32, 13.19) vs. 0.45 (0.13, 3.53), P < 0.01]. There were significant differences of CISs and biomarkers between death group and survival group in predicting 28-day and 60-day mortality in BSI-associated pneumonia. ROC curve analysis showed that: (1) the optimal cut-off value of PCT in the diagnosis of single bacterial infection was 0.48 μg/L, with the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.739 [95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.686-0.793]. When PCT value was greater than 4.49 μg/L, the specificity of diagnostic of GNB infection could reach 81.8%, and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 75.0%. When PCT value was greater than 10.16 μg/L, the diagnostic specificity could reach 91.2%. (2) In the prediction of 28-day and 60-day mortality, the SOFA score showed highest AUC [28-day: 0.818 (95%CI was 0.768-0.867), 60-day: 0.800 (95%CI was 0.751-0.849)]. SOFA score greater than 8.5 points could help to predict 28-day and 60-day mortality for pneumonia patients with specificity of 90.5% and 91.6%, respectively. AUC of PCT for predicting 28-day and 60-day mortality in patients with BSI associated with pneumonia was 0.637 (95%CI was 0.575-0.700) and 0.628 (95%CI was 0.569-0.688), respectively. When PCT value was greater than 8.15 μg/L, the specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) were 80.2% and 75.1% respectively, and they could reach 80.2% and 68.7% when PCT value was greater than 7.46 μg/L. PCT is more reliable in the identification of pathogen type in BSI-associated pneumonia, while CISs may be more advantageous in the assessment of early and late prognosis.

Outcome prediction value of National Early Warning Score in septic patients with community-acquired pneumonia in emergency department: A single-center retrospective cohort study.

To evaluate the accuracy of National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in predicting clinical outcomes (28-day mortality, intensive care unit [ICU] admission, and mechanical ventilation use) for septic patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) compared with other commonly used severity scores (CURB65, Pneumonia Severity Index [PSI], Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA], quick SOFA [qSOFA], and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis [MEDS]) and admission lactate level. Adult patients diagnosed with CAP admitted between January 2017 and May 2019 with admission SOFA ≥2 from baseline were enrolled. Demographic characteristics were collected. The primary outcome was the 28-day mortality after admission, and the secondary outcome included ICU admission and mechanical ventilation use. Outcome prediction value of parameters above was compared using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Cox regression analyses were carried out to determine the risk factors for the 28-day mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and compared using optimal cut-off values of qSOFA and NEWS. Among the 340 enrolled patients, 90 patients were dead after a 28-day follow-up, 62 patients were admitted to ICU, and 84 patients underwent mechanical ventilation. Among single predictors, NEWS achieved the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve in predicting the 28-day mortality (0.861), ICU admission (0.895), and use of mechanical ventilation (0.873). NEWS+lactate, similar to MEDS+lactate, outperformed other combinations of severity score and admission lactate in predicting the 28-day mortality (AUROC 0.866) and ICU admission (AUROC 0.905), while NEWS+lactate did not outperform other combinations in predicting mechanical ventilation (AUROC 0.886). Admission lactate only improved the predicting performance of CURB65 and qSOFA in predicting the 28-day mortality and ICU admission. NEWS could be a valuable predictor in septic patients with CAP in emergency departments. Admission lactate did not predict well the outcomes or improve the severity scores. A qSOFA ≥2 and a NEWS ≥9 were strongly associated with the 28-day mortality, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation of septic patients with CAP in the emergency departments.

Outcome prediction using the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score combined with procalcitonin for influenza patients

BackgroundSevere influenza is often associated with bacterial coinfection and can trigger sepsis, which increases the severity, complexity and mortality of the disease. To determine an effective method for predicting 28-day mortality of emergency department (ED) patients with influenza, we investigated the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, procalcitonin (PCT) and other relevant biomarkers. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective, observational, monocentric study, and the endpoint was 28-day mortality. Independent predictors were identified and a new combination predictive model was created both by logistic regression, and the model was evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. ResultsA total of 364 consecutive ED admitted patients with influenza were enrolled and 45 patients died within 28 days. For predicting 28-day mortality, the MEDS score and PCT were independent predictors with adjusted odds ratio of 1.318 (95% CI 1.206–1.439) and 1.038 (95% CI 1.010–1.065), and with AUCs of 0.817 (95% CI 0.756–0.878) and 0.793 (95% CI 0.725–0.861), respectively. The new combination of the MEDS score with PCT significantly improved the efficacy for predicting 28-day mortality with an AUC of 0.857 (95% CI 0.809–0.905), and was superior to the SOFA score with an AUC of 0.837 (95% CI 0.779–0.894). ConclusionThe MEDS score and PCT, especially when combined, perform well for predicting mortality of ED admitted patients with influenza.

Sepsis patient evaluation emergency department (SPEED) score & mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score in predicting 28-day mortality of emergency sepsis patients

PurposeSepsis is a common acute life-threatening condition that emergency physicians routinely face. Diagnostic options within the Emergency Department (ED) are limited due to lack of infrastructure, consequently limiting the use of invasive hemodynamic monitoring or imaging tests. The mortality rate due to sepsis can be assessed via multiple scoring systems, for example, mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score and sepsis patient evaluation in the emergency department (SPEED) score, both of which quantify the variation of mortality rates according to clinical findings, laboratory data, or therapeutic interventions. This study aims to improve the management processes of sepsis patients by comparing SPEED score and MEDS score for predicting the 28-day mortality in cases of emergency sepsis. MethodsThe study is a cross-sectional, prospective study including 61 sepsis patients in ED in Suez Canal University Hospital, Egypt, from August 2017 to June 2018. Patients were selected by two steps: (1) suspected septic patients presenting with at least one of the following abnormal clinical findings: (a) body temperature higher than 38°C or lower than 36°C, (b) heart rate higher than 90 beats/min, (c) hyperventilation evidenced by respiratory rate higher than 20 breaths/min or PaCO2 lower than 32 mmHg, and (d) white blood cell count higher than 12,000/μL or lower than 4000/μL; (2) confirmed septic patients with at least a 2-point increase from the baseline total sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score following infection. Other inclusion criteria included adult patients with an age ≥18 years regardless of gender and those who had either systemic inflammatory response syndrome or suspected/confirmed infection. Patients were shortly follow-up for the 28-day mortality. Each patient was subject to SPEED score and MEDS score and then the results were compared to detect which of them was more effective in predicting outcome. The receiver operating characteristic curves were also done for MEDS and SPEED scores. ResultsAmong the 61 patients, 41 died with the mortality rate of 67.2%. The mortality rate increased with a higher SPEED and MEDS scores. Both SPEED and MEDS scores revealed significant difference between the survivors and nonsurvivors (p = 0.004 and p < 0.001, respectively), indicating that both the two systems are effective in predicting the 28-day mortality of sepsis patients. Thereafter, the receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, which showed that SPEED was better than the MEDS score when applied to the complete study population with an area under the curve being 0.87 (0.788–0.963) as compared with 0.75 (0.634–0.876) for MEDS. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the best fitting predictor of 28-day mortality for sepsis patients was the SPEED scoring system. For every one unit increase in SPEED score, the odds of 28-day mortality increased by 37%. ConclusionSPEED score is more useful and accurate than MEDS score in predicting the 28-day mortality among sepsis patients. Therefore SPEED rather than MEDS should be more widely used in the ED for sepsis patients.

Validation of the mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score in a Singaporean cohort.

The emergency department (ED) serves as the first point of hospital contact for most septic patients. Early mortality risk stratification using a quick and accurate triage tool would have great value in guiding management. The mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score was developed to risk stratify patients presenting to the ED with suspected sepsis, and its performance in the literature has been promising. We report in this study the first utilization of the MEDS score in a Singaporean cohort.In this retrospective observational cohort study, adult patients presenting to the ED with suspected sepsis and fulfilling systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria were recruited. Primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) and secondary outcome was 72-hour mortality. MEDS, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were compared for prediction of primary and secondary outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare predictive performance.Of the 249 patients included in the study, 46 patients (18.5%) met 30-day IHM. MEDS score achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.93), outperforming the APACHE II score (0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.85) and SOFA score (0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85). On secondary analysis, MEDS score was superior to both APACHE II and SOFA scores in predicting 72-hour mortality, with AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.95), 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.89), and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.87), respectively. In predicting 30-day IHM, MEDS score ≥12, APACHE II score ≥23, and SOFA score ≥5 performed at sensitivities of 76.1%, 67.4%, and 76.1%, and specificities of 83.3%, 73.9%, and 65.0%, respectively.The MEDS score performed well in its ability for mortality risk stratification in a Singaporean ED cohort.

Outcome prediction using the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score combined with procalcitonin for influenza patients

BackgroundSevere influenza is often associated with bacterial coinfection and can trigger sepsis, which increases the severity, complexity and mortality of the disease. To determine an effective method for predicting 28-day mortality of emergency department (ED) patients with influenza, we investigated the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, procalcitonin (PCT) and other relevant biomarkers. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective, observational, monocentric study, and the endpoint was 28-day mortality. Independent predictors were identified and a new combination predictive model was created both by logistic regression, and the model was evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. ResultsA total of 364 consecutive ED admitted patients with influenza were enrolled and 45 patients died within 28 days. For predicting 28-day mortality, the MEDS score and PCT were independent predictors with adjusted odds ratio of 1.318 (95% CI 1.206–1.439) and 1.038 (95% CI 1.010–1.065), and with AUCs of 0.817 (95% CI 0.756–0.878) and 0.793 (95% CI 0.725–0.861), respectively. The new combination of the MEDS score with PCT significantly improved the efficacy for predicting 28-day mortality with an AUC of 0.857 (95% CI 0.809–0.905), and was superior to the SOFA score with an AUC of 0.837 (95% CI 0.779–0.894). ConclusionThe MEDS score and PCT, especially when combined, perform well for predicting mortality of ED admitted patients with influenza.