Mortality In Elderly Patients Research Articles

Characteristics, management and mortality of elderly patients with COVID-19 in intensive care at Hospital de Clínicas. San Lorenzo, Paraguay

Characteristics, management and mortality of elderly patients with COVID-19 in intensive care at Hospital de Clínicas. San Lorenzo, Paraguay

Abstract PO3-03-02: Effect of Surgery on Breast Cancer-Specific Mortality in Elderly Patients with Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

Abstract Background: The number of elderly patients with breast cancer has been increasing in Japan. Although standard treatment including surgery is desirable if the expected life expectancy is sufficient, not all elderly patients with breast cancer are eligible for surgery due to frailty and comorbidities. Endocrine therapy (ET) alone is an alternative option if surgery is not considered adequate in patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. We evaluated whether ET alone was associated with inferior overall and breast cancer-specific survival compared to standard treatment including surgery in elderly patients. Methods: This study included all patients aged 75 years and over who were diagnosed with non-metastatic primary invasive hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer and treated at Hiraka General Hospital from July 2006 to March 2022. Patients were divided as those who received ET alone (ET alone group) and those who received surgery with other therapies (Surgery group). Survival status as on March 31, 2023 and cause of death were determined. Overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model including age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS) score, clinical stage, and treatment were used to identify survival-associated factors. Propensity score matching was used to reduce the effect of selection bias on treatment type during survival comparison of the groups. Results: The study cohort comprised 128 patients, including 33 and 95 patients in the ET alone group and Surgery group, respectively. The median ages were 84.6 and 80.4 years in the ET alone group and Surgery group, respectively (p < 0.05). Ten patients (30%) in the ET alone group had poor PS (3 or 4), and no patient in the Surgery group had poor PS (p < 0.01). Also, 24.2%, 54.5%, and 21.2% of the patients in the ET alone group and 48.4%, 43.2%, and 8.4% of the patients in the Surgery group had clinical stage I, II, and III disease at diagnosis, respectively (p < 0.05). Survival status was confirmed in all patients, and the cause of death was confirmed in 52 of the 53 patients who died (98%) during the study period, including 24 and 29 patients in the ET alone group and Surgery group, respectively. Breast cancer was the cause of death in 3 patients (13%) in the ET alone group and 5 patients (17%) in the Surgery group. By univariate analysis, overall survival was significantly better in the Surgery group than in the ET alone group (median, 12.5 vs. 4.1 years; p < 0.0001). Similarly, breast cancer-specific survival was better in the Surgery group than in the ET alone group (p < 0.05). By multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, age was associated with shorter overall survival time (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00–1.15; p = 0.04) and surgery was associated with longer overall survival (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.12–0.47; p < 0.001). Breast cancer-specific survival was associated with age (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.03–1.36; p = 0.02) and clinical stage (HR 8.89, 95% CI 1.05–75.5; p < 0.05) but not with treatment (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.73–5.85; p = 0.71). After propensity score matching, overall survival was significantly better in the Surgery group than in the ET alone group (HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.09–0.73; p = 0.01) whereas breast cancer-specific survival was not significantly different between the two groups (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.08–8.27; p = 0.86). Conclusion: Even in elderly patients, surgery should be considered if sufficient life expectancy is expected. However, most of the deaths were not related to breast cancer in the present study cohort. Therefore, for elderly patients without sufficient life expectancy, endocrine therapy alone would be an appropriate option. Citation Format: Misako Yatsuyanagi, Tomoyuki Shimada, Yuko Takeishi, Yukiko Matsuzaka, Chika ohsawa. Effect of Surgery on Breast Cancer-Specific Mortality in Elderly Patients with Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Breast Cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO3-03-02.

OR6-1 | Association of Complete Revascularization with Mortality in Elderly Patients with Multi-Vessel Coronary Artery Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OR6-1 | Association of Complete Revascularization with Mortality in Elderly Patients with Multi-Vessel Coronary Artery Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Machine Learning for Predicting Risk and Prognosis of Acute Kidney Disease in Critically Ill Elderly Patients During Hospitalization: Internet-Based and Interpretable Model Study.

Acute kidney disease (AKD) affects more than half of critically ill elderly patients with acute kidney injury (AKI), which leads to worse short-term outcomes. We aimed to establish 2 machine learning models to predict the risk and prognosis of AKD in the elderly and to deploy the models as online apps. Data on elderly patients with AKI (n=3542) and AKD (n=2661) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database were used to develop 2 models for predicting the AKD risk and in-hospital mortality, respectively. Data collected from Xiangya Hospital of Central South University were for external validation. A bootstrap method was used for internal validation to obtain relatively stable results. We extracted the indicators within 24 hours of the first diagnosis of AKI and the fluctuation range of some indicators, namely delta (day 3 after AKI minus day 1), as features. Six machine learning algorithms were used for modeling; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), decision curve analysis, and calibration curve for evaluating; Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis for visually interpreting; and the Heroku platform for deploying the best-performing models as web-based apps. For the model of predicting the risk of AKD in elderly patients with AKI during hospitalization, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) showed the best overall performance in the training (AUROC=0.844, 95% CI 0.831-0.857), internal validation (AUROC=0.853, 95% CI 0.841-0.865), and external (AUROC=0.755, 95% CI 0.699-0.811) cohorts. In addition, LightGBM performed well for the AKD prognostic prediction in the training (AUROC=0.861, 95% CI 0.843-0.878), internal validation (AUROC=0.868, 95% CI 0.851-0.885), and external (AUROC=0.746, 95% CI 0.673-0.820) cohorts. The models deployed as online prediction apps allowed users to predict and provide feedback to submit new data for model iteration. In the importance ranking and correlation visualization of the model's top 10 influencing factors conducted based on the SHAP value, partial dependence plots revealed the optimal cutoff of some interventionable indicators. The top 5 factors predicting the risk of AKD were creatinine on day 3, sepsis, delta blood urea nitrogen (BUN), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate, while the top 5 factors determining in-hospital mortality were age, BUN on day 1, vasopressor use, BUN on day 3, and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2). We developed and validated 2 online apps for predicting the risk of AKD and its prognostic mortality in elderly patients, respectively. The top 10 factors that influenced the AKD risk and mortality during hospitalization were identified and explained visually, which might provide useful applications for intelligent management and suggestions for future prospective research.

Increased mortality in elderly patients who spent the night in the emergency department: lessons from the 'No Bed Night' study?

Increased mortality in elderly patients who spent the night in the emergency department: lessons from the 'No Bed Night' study?

Nomogram predictive model for in-hospital mortality risk in elderly ICU patients with urosepsis

BackgroundUrinary tract infection (UTI) is a common cause of sepsis. Elderly patients with urosepsis in intensive care unit (ICU) have more severe conditions and higher mortality rates owing to factors such as advanced age, immunosenescence, and persistent host inflammatory responses. However, comprehensive studies on nomograms to predict the in-hospital mortality risk in elderly patients with urosepsis are lacking. This study aimed to construct a nomogram predictive model to accurately assess the prognosis of elderly patients with urosepsis and provide therapeutic recommendations.MethodsData of elderly patients with urosepsis were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) IV 2.2 database. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. A predictive nomogram model was constructed from the training set using logistic regression analysis, followed by internal validation and sensitivity analysis.ResultsThis study included 1,251 patients. LASSO regression analysis revealed that the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, red cell distribution width (RDW), white blood count (WBC), and invasive ventilation were independent risk factors identified from a total of 43 variables studied. We then created and verified a nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram were superior to those of the traditional SAPS-II, APACHE-II, and SOFA scoring systems. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results and calibration curves suggested good nomogram calibration. The IDI and NRI values showed that our nomogram scoring tool performed better than the other scoring systems. The DCA curves showed good clinical applicability of the nomogram.ConclusionsThe nomogram constructed in this study is a convenient tool for accurately predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with urosepsis in ICU. Improving the treatment strategies for factors related to the model could improve the in-hospital survival rates of these patients.

The impact of triglyceride glucose-body mass index on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in elderly patients with diabetes mellitus: evidence from NHANES 2007–2016

BackgroundThe relationship between triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) index and mortality in elderly patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) are still unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between TyG-BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among elderly DM patients in the United States (US).MethodsPatients aged over 60 years with DM from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007–2016) were included in this study. The study endpoints were all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and the morality data were extracted from the National Death Index (NDI) which records up to December 31, 2019. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to explore the association between TyG-BMI index with mortality. Restricted cubic spline was used to model nonlinear relationships.ResultsA total of 1363 elderly diabetic patients were included, and were categorized into four quartiles. The mean age was 70.0 ± 6.8 years, and 48.6% of them were female. Overall, there were 429 all-cause deaths and 123 cardiovascular deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 77.3 months. Multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that compared to the 1st quartile (used as the reference), the 3rd quartile demonstrated a significant association with all-cause mortality (model 2: HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.46–0.89, P = 0.009; model 3: HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.43–0.96, P = 0.030). Additionally, the 4th quartile was significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality (model 2: HR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.01–3.30, P = 0.047; model 3: HR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.07–5.57, P = 0.033). The restricted cubic spline revealed a U-shaped association between TyG-BMI index with all-cause mortality and a linear association with cardiovascular mortality, after adjustment for possible confounding factors.ConclusionsA U-shaped association was observed between the TyG-BMI index with all-cause mortality and a linear association was observed between the TyG-BMI index with cardiovascular mortality in elderly patients with DM in the US population.

The association between prealbumin concentration at admission and mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures: a cohort study.

To evaluate the association between prealbumin concentration at admission and mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures. Elderly patients with hip fractures were screened between Jan 2015 and Sep 2019. Demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients were collected. Linear and nonlinear multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the association between prealbumin concentration at admission and mortality. All analyses were performed using EmpowerStats and the R software. This cohort study included 2387 patients who met the study criteria. The mean follow-up was 37.64months. The prealbumin concentration was 162.67 ± 43.2mg/L. Multivariate Cox regression showed that prealbumin concentration was associated with mortality in geriatric patients with hip fracture (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.93-0.97, P < 0.0001). In addition, an inflection point effect was observed in the nonlinear association. The inflection point was 162.2mg/L. If it is less than this inflection point, then every 10mg/L increase in prealbumin was associated with a 7% reduction in the risk of death (HR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.90-0.96, P < 0.0001). Whengreater than the inflection point,there was nodifference in the risk of death (HR = 0.99, 95%CI: 0.95-1.03, P = 0.5127). The prealbumin concentrations at admission were nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality in geriatric hip fractures, and 162.2mg/L could be considered a prognostic factor of mortality risk.

Comparison of Clinical Manifestation and Mortality-Related Risk Factors Between Elderly and Middle-Aged COVID-19 Patients

Given that the risk factors associated with mortality and morbidity of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) vary among age groups, this study aimed to describe the differences in clinical characteristics and mortality-related risk factors between elderly and middle-aged COVID-19 patients. A total of 1061 patients were included in this retrospective cohort study. Patients’ radiology reports and laboratory data were extracted from the available data on the Hospital Information System (HIS), and clinical findings were added in special forms. We followed up cases until death or discharge to evaluate patients’ outcomes. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (95% CI, HR 2.73 (0.97-6.62)), need for antibiotics (95% CI, HR 2.26 (1.20-4.26)), and diabetes (95% CI, HR 1.77 (0.97-3.24)) were associated with a higher risk of mortality among middle-aged COVID-19 patients; while, age (95% CI, HR 1.04 (1.01-1.06)) was associated with increased mortality rate in elderly patients. We found that the need for antibiotics was associated with a worse outcome of COVID-19. Additionally, we described the differences between elderly and middle-aged COVID-19 patients regarding their comorbidities, laboratory findings, and clinical manifestation.

Anemia is Associated with Mortality and Higher Hospitalization Rates in Elderly Patients Receiving Home Care: A Prospective Cohort Study

Aim: Our study aims to evaluate the relationship of anemia with all-cause hospitalization and mortality in elderly patients receiving home care. Methods: Our study was designed as a prospective cohort and was carried out with patients aged 65 and above who received home care services. Demographic data of the participants, chronic diseases, drug utilization, activities of daily living, and laboratory tests were recorded. Our research was completed by recording the number of hospitalizations due to all causes and mortality data in the year following the recording of the patient data. Results: In total, 341 patients were included in our study. The mean age was 80.62±8.74. Anemia prevalence was specified to be 65.4% (n=223). During the one-year follow-up period, 157 (46.0%) patients were hospitalized at least once. Mortality developed at a rate of 20.2% (n=69). After adjusting for confounding factors, it was determined that anemia was associated with hospitalization and mortality. A weak negative and significant correlation was determined between the hemoglobin concentration in the blood and the one-year hospitalization frequency. In patients who developed mortality, blood hemoglobin concentration was found to be significantly lower. Conclusion: Anemia was detected to be independently associated with hospitalization and mortality in elderly patients receiving home care. As the hemoglobin concentration in the blood decreases in the elderly group, the rate of hospitalization increases. Patients who develop mortality have significantly lower hemoglobin levels than those who survive. Keywords: anemia, home care services, aged, mortality, hospitalization

Risk factors for unfavorable outcome after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in elderly patients

BackgroundSpontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) of the elderly is a devastating form of stroke with a high morbidity and economic burden. There is still a limited understanding of the risk factors for an unfavorable outcome where a surgical therapy may be less meaningful. Thus, the aim of this study is to identify factors associated with unfavorable outcome and time to death in surgically treated elderly patients with SICH. MethodsWe performed a single-center retrospective study of 70 patients (age > 60 years) with SICH operated between 2008 and 2020. Functional outcome was assessed by modified Rankin Scale. Various clinical and neuroradiological variables including type of neurosurgical treatment, anatomical location of hemorrhage, volumetry and distribution of hemorrhage were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed. Length of stay (LOS) and hospital costs are presented. ResultsThe overall mortality (mean follow-up time of 22 months) in this study was 32/70 patients (45.71%), 30-days mortality was 8/70 (11.42%), and 12-months mortality was 22/70 (31.43%). Average LOS was 73.5 days with a median of 58, 766 € estimated in hospital costs per patient. Multivariate analysis for 12-months mortality was significant for intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (p = 0.007, HR = 1.021, 95% CI = 1.006 – 1.037). ROC analysis for 12-months mortality for IVH volume >= 7 cm3 presented an are under the curve of 0.658. ConclusionsWe identified IVH volume > 7 cm3 as an independent prognostic risk factor for mortality in elderly patients after SICH. This may help clinicians in decision-making for this critical and growing subgroup of patients.

The Association between Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Mortality Risk after Hip Fracture: A Meta-Analysis.

Background and Objectives: Hip fractures in the elderly pose a considerable health risk and cause concern. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is a valuable marker for identifying patients at high risk of age-related mortality and various disorders and diseases. However, its association with poor patient outcomes following hip fractures has yet to be fully established. Hence, the purpose of this meta-analysis was to investigate and gain a better understanding of the relationship between RDW levels and the risk of mortality after hip fractures. Materials and Methods: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and other databases were comprehensively searched until April 2023 to identify relevant studies. The meta-analysis included observational studies finding the association between RDW at admission or preoperation and short-term and long-term mortality rates following hip fractures. The results were presented in terms of odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: This meta-analysis included 10 studies involving 5834 patients with hip fractures. Patients with preoperative RDW of over 14.5% had higher risks of 1-year (OR: 5.40, 95% CI: 1.89-15.48, p = 0.002) and 3-month (OR: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.42-5.95, p = 0.004) mortality. Higher admission or preoperative RDW was significantly associated with an 11% higher mortality risk after 1 year (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.06-1.17, p < 0.00001). Patients with higher preoperative RDW had a significantly higher risk of 6-month mortality, which was three times that of those with lower preoperative RDW (OR: 3.00, 95% CI: 1.60-5.61, p = 0.0006). Higher preoperative RDW was correlated to a higher 30-day mortality risk (OR: 6.44, 95% CI: 3.32-12.47, p < 0.00001). Conclusions: Greater RDW values at admission or before surgery were associated with a higher risk of short-term and long-term mortality following hip fractures. Because RDW can be easily measured using a routine blood test at a low cost, this parameter is promising as an indicator of mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures.

Effect of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio on prognosis of elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with diabetes mellitus

BackgroundTo investigate the predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in the short-term prognosis of elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with diabetes mellitus (DM).MethodsThe clinical data of 162 elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with DM from January 2018 to December 2022 were retrospectively collected. These patients were divided into a survival group (n = 104) and a death group (n = 58) according to 90-day prognosis. The number of neutrophils, lymphocytes, and NLR were compared. The optimal cut-off value for NLR to predict 90-day prognosis in elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with DM was determined using Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves, and the patients were divided into high and low NLR groups depending on the optimal cut-off value. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curves of the high and low NLR groups. Risk factors for the 90-day death in elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with DM were analyzed by a multivariate cox regression model.ResultsThere were no significant differences in gender, age, history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia, intensive care unit (ICU) stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, and oxygenation index between the survival group and death group (p > 0.05). However, acute physiological and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, and sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were significantly lower in the survival group compared with the death group (p < 0.05). In the survival group, neutrophils counts and NLR were much lower than those in the death group, while lymphocytes counts were much higher (p < 0.05). ROC curves showed that the optimal cut-off value for NLR to predict 90-day mortality in elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with DM was 3.482. Patients were divided into high NLR and low NLR groups based on whether NLR was ≥ 3.482. In terms of the log-rank test results, patients in the low NLR group had a significantly higher 90-day survival rate than those in the high NLR group (Logrank χ2 = 8.635, p = 0.003). The multivariate cox regression model showed that the length of ICU stay longer than 15 days and NLR ≥ 3.482 were independent risk factors for 90-day prognosis in elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with DM.ConclusionNLR ≥ 3.482 can be used to predict whether poor prognosis occurs in the short term after illness in elderly patients with severe sepsis combined with DM, and has good assessment value.

Risk of Bleeding in Elderly Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation or Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement

Background: Bleeding complications are strong predictors of mortality and major morbidity in elderly patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Despite the high prevalence of frailty in this population, little is known about its effects on bleeding risk. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study of 502 patients undergoing isolated SAVR or TAVI between January 2015 and February 2022. The occurrence of blood products transfusions and MACEs were the primary endpoints. In-hospital mortality was the secondary endpoint. Results: The Elderly group (age &lt; 80 years old) included 475 subjects, whereas the Very Elderly group (age ≥ 80 years old) included 127 patients. The need for blood product transfusion was similar among the two groups, regardless of the type of procedure. MACEs occurred similarly between groups [SAVR: Elderly group: 7.9% vs. Very Elderly group: 8.6%, p = 0.864; TAVI: Elderly group: 5.5% vs. Very Elderly group: 8.7%, p = 0.378]. The was no difference in in-hospital mortality rate in patients submitted to TAVI, whereas very elderly patients had higher mortality rate compared to the elderly patients submitted to SAVR [SAVR: Elderly group: 0% vs. Very Elderly group: 2.8%, p = 0.024; TAVI: Elderly group: 4,8% vs. Very Elderly group: 8%, p = 0.389]. Conclusions: Age alone should not be considered as a predictive factor for post-operative adverse events or in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with severe symptomatic AS.

The mode and timing of administrating nutritional treatment of critically ill elderly patients in intensive care units: a multicenter prospective study.

Critically ill patients are more susceptible to malnutrition due to their severe illness. Moreover, elderly patients who are critically ill lack specific nutrition recommendations, with nutritional care in the intensive care units (ICUs) deplorable for the elderly. This study aims to investigate nutrition treatment and its correlation to mortality in elderly patients who are critically ill in intensive care units. A multiple-center prospective cohort study was conducted in China from 128 intensive care units (ICUs). A total of 1,238 elderly patients were included in the study from 26 April 2017. We analyzed the nutrition characteristics of elderly patients who are critically ill, including initiated timing, route, ways of enteral nutrition (EN), and feeding complications, including the adverse aspects of feeding, acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI), and feeding interruption. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the impact of nutrition treatment on a 28-day survival prognosis of elderly patients in the ICU. A total of 1,238 patients with a median age of 76 (IQR 70-83) were enrolled in the study. The Sequential Organ Failure (SOFA) median score was 7 (interquartile range: IQR 5-10) and the median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II was 21 (IQR 16-25). The all-cause mortality score was 11.6%. The percentage of nutritional treatment initiated 24 h after ICU admission was 58%, with an EN of 34.2% and a parenteral nutrition (PN) of 16.0% in elderly patients who are critically ill. Patients who had gastrointestinal dysfunction with AGI stage from 2 to 4 were 25.2%. Compared to the survivors' group, the non-survivors group had a lower ratio of EN delivery (57% vs. 71%; p = 0.015), a higher ratio of post-pyloric feeding (9% vs. 2%; p = 0.027), and higher frequency of feeding interrupt (24% vs. 17%, p = 0.048). Multivariable logistics regression analysis showed that patients above 76 years old with OR (odds ratio) 2.576 (95% CI, 1.127-5.889), respiratory rate > 22 beats/min, and ICU admission for 24 h were independent risk predictors of the 28-day mortality study in elderly patients who are critically ill. Similarly, other independent risk predictors of the 28-day mortality study were those with an OR of 2.385 (95%CI, 1.101-5.168), lactate >1.5 mmol/L, and ICU admission for 24 h, those with an OR of 7.004 (95%CI, 2.395-20.717) and early PN delivery within 24 h of ICU admission, and finally those with an OR of 5.401 (95%CI, 1.175-24.821) with EN delivery as reference. This multi-center prospective study describes clinical characteristics, the mode and timing of nutrition treatment, frequency of AGI, and adverse effects of nutrition in elderly ICU patients. According to this survey, ICU patients with early PN delivery, older age, faster respiratory rate, and higher lactate level may experience poor prognosis.

The prediction of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury utilizing machine learning models

BackgroundSepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is a severe complication associated with poorer prognosis and increased mortality, particularly in elderly patients. Currently, there is a lack of accurate mortality risk prediction models for these patients in clinic. ObjectivesThis study aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in elderly patients with SA-AKI. MethodsMachine learning models were developed and validated using the public, high-quality Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV critically ill database. The recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm was employed for key feature selection. Eleven predictive models were compared, with the best one selected for further validation. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values were used for visualization and interpretation, making the machine learning models clinically interpretable. ResultsThere were 16,154 patients with SA-AKI in the MIMIC-IV database, and 8426 SA-AKI patients were included in this study (median age: 77.0 years; female: 45%). 7728 patients excluded based on these criteria. They were randomly divided into a training cohort (5,934, 70%) and a validation cohort (2,492, 30%). Nine key features were selected by the RFE algorithm. The CatBoost model achieved the best performance, with an AUC of 0.844 in the training cohort and 0.804 in the validation cohort. SHAP values revealed that AKI stage, PaO2, and lactate were the top three most important features contributing to the CatBoost model. ConclusionWe developed a model capable of predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with SA-AKI.

Prognostic utility of paraspinal muscle index in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

This study aimed to investigate the association between paraspinal muscle measurements using chest computed tomography (CT) and the clinical outcomes of elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This was a single-center, retrospective, observational study that included elderly (≥65 years) patients with CAP hospitalized through an emergency department between March 2020 and December 2022. We collected their baseline characteristics and laboratory data at the time of admission. Paraspinal muscle index and attenuation were calculated at the level of the 12th thoracic vertebra using chest CT taken within 48 hours before and after admission. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the association between paraspinal muscle measurements and 28-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic predictive power. Of 338 enrolled patients, 60 (17.8%) died within 28 days after admission. A high paraspinal muscle index was associated with a low 28-day mortality in elderly patients with CAP (adjusted odds ratio, 0.994; 95% confidence interval, 0.992-0.997). The area under the ROC curve for the muscle index was 0.75, which outperformed pneumonia severity index (PSI) and confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 (CURB-65), both of which showed 0.64 in predicting mortality. A high paraspinal muscle index was associated with a low 28-day mortality in patients aged 65 years or older with CAP.

LOWER MORTALITY RISK WITH COMBINATION THERAPY WITH ANTI-TNF THERAPY AND THRIOPURINE COMPARED TO THIOPURINE ALONE IN ELDERLY PATIENTS WITH UC

Abstract INTRODUCTION Despite increasing incidence rates of ulcerative colitis (UC) in the elderly, efficacy and safety data for medical management in this cohort is lacking due to underrepresentation in clinical trials and registries. Selection of medical therapy is often complex, taking into consideration a multitude of factors, including real and perceived risks of infection and malignancy. In the past, immunomodulators, such as thiopurines, were commonly used as monotherapy for maintenance, offering the added advantages of affordability and oral administration. Indeed, there are elderly patients who have been maintained for decades on thiopurine monotherapy. Further, thiopurines can be used in combination with anti-TNF therapy for improved efficacy and reduced immunogenicity compared to monotherapy with either agent in ulcerative colitis (UC). Whether the use of combination therapy imposes an additive risk compared to thiopurine monotherapy is still unclear. This study aimed to investigate outcomes of thiopurine monotherapy versus combination therapy with anti-TNF agents in elderly patients (age ≥65 years) with UC. METHODS The TriNetX Research Network was accessed on October 15th, 2023, to compare outcomes in elderly patients 65 years or older with UC who are receiving thiopurine monotherapy and patients who are receiving combination therapy with an anti-TNF (adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, golimumab, or infliximab). The outcomes examined were 1-year rate of corticosteroid and colectomy as well as 10-year rate of mortality, colon cancer, skin cancer, and respiratory and urinary tract infections. Statistical risk analysis was performed using the TriNetX analytical platform. RESULTS A total of 2,597 patients (2,245 thiopurines monotherapy and 352 AZA plus anti-TNF combination therapy) were included in the study (Table 1). Among the monotherapy and combination therapy cohorts, mean age was 71 years old and approximately 56% male. Ten-year mortality was higher in the thiopurine monotherapy group (OR 1.67, p=0.002). The combination therapy cohort had higher rates of steroid use (32.4% vs. 24.3%, p=0.001) and colectomy at 1 year compared to the monotherapy cohort (4.5% vs. 1.2%, p&amp;lt;0.001). There was no significant difference in 10-year risk of colon cancer (OR 1.05, p=0.88), skin cancer (OR 1.51, p=0.06), incidence of respiratory (OR 1.48, p=0.07) and urinary tract infections (OR 1.18, p=0.23). CONCLUSION The study findings highlight the risks of thiopurine use in patients over the age of 65 given the significantly higher 10-year mortality risk in thiopurine monotherapy-treated patients. The results also suggest that combination therapy with thiopurine and anti-TNF therapies - despite utilization in patients with more active disease indicators - is not associated with an additive risk in terms of infection and mortality in elderly patients. Table 1 Characteristics and Outcomes of Elderly Patients with UC either on Thiopurine Monotherapy or Combination Therapy with anti-TNF agents

Importance of dialysis specialists in early mortality in elderly hemodialysis patients: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

The early mortality rate in elderly patients undergoing hemodialysis is more than twice that in young patients, requiring more specialized healthcare. We investigated whether the number of professional dialysis specialists affected early mortality in elderly patients undergoing hemodialysis. This multicenter retrospective cohort study analyzed data from 1860 patients aged ≥ 70 years who started hemodialysis between January 2010 and December 2017. Study regions included Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, Gangwon-do, Daejeon/Chungcheong-do, Daegu/Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongsangnam-do. The number of patients undergoing hemodialysis per dialysis specialist was calculated using registered data from each hemodialysis center. Early mortality was defined as death within 6 months of hemodialysis initiation. Gangwon-do (28.3%) and Seoul (14.5%) showed the highest and lowest early mortality rate, respectively. Similarly, Gangwon-do (64.6) and Seoul (43.9) had the highest and lowest number of patients per dialysis specialist, respectively. Relatively consistent results were observed for the regional rankings of early mortality rate and number of patients per dialysis specialist. Multivariate Cox regression analysis—adjusted for previously known significant risk factors—revealed that the number of patients per dialysis specialist was an independent risk factor for early mortality (hazard ratio: 1.031, p < 0.001). This study underscores the growing need for dialysis specialists for elderly hemodialysis patients in Korea.

Predictive value of soluble CD40L combined with APACHE II score in elderly patients with sepsis in the emergency department

BackgroundThe prognostic performance of soluble CD40L (sCD40L) for illness severity in infectious diseases is rarely reported. We investigated the ability of sCD40L combined with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score to evaluate mortality in septic patients in the emergency department(ED).MethodsWe enrolled 222 septic patients in the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital from October 2020 to April 2021. Their serum sCD40L, PCT, lactate (Lac), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score were used to predict the prognosis of septic patients in terms of 28-day mortality. Serum sCD40L was detected by Human XL Cytokine Luminex. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the prognostic value of the variables.ResultsOne hundred ninety-five patients met the inclusion criteria, divided into survival group (55 cases) and non-survival group (140 cases). sCD40L, PCT, Lac, SOFA and APACHE II score were found to independently predict 28-day mortality (P < 0.05). The AUC values of sCD40L, PCT, Lac, SOFA and APACHE II score were 0.662,0.727,0.704, 0.719 and 0.716, respectively. There was no difference in the diagnostic value of sCD40L compared with the PCT, Lac, SOFA score or APACHE II score (Z1 = 1.19, P = 0.234; Z2 = 0.77, P = 0.441; Z3 = 1.05, P = 0.294; Z4 = 0.97, P = 0.332). However, the combined evaluation of sCD40L + APACHE II (AUC:0.772, Z = 2.10, P = 0.036) was much better than sCD40L alone in predicting 28-day mortality.ConclusionThe predictive value of sCD40L + APACHE II is better than sCD40L alone for 28-day mortality. sCD40L combined with APACHE II score is valuable for predicting 28-day mortality in elderly patients with sepsis.