Mortality In Community-dwelling Older People Research Articles

Severity of frailty using modified Thai frailty index, social factors, and prediction of mortality among community-dwelling older adults in a middle-income country.

Frailty has been increasingly recognized as a public health problem for aging populations with significant social impact, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to develop a modified version of the Thai Frailty Index (TFI) and explore the association between different frailty statuses, socioeconomic factors, and mortality in community-dwelling older people from a middle-income country. The data from participants aged ≥60 years in the Fourth Thai National Health Examination Survey were used to construct the 30-item TFI. Cutoff points were created based on stratum-specific likelihood ratio. TFI ≤ 0.10 was categorized as fit, 0.10-0.25 as pre-frail, 0.25-0.45 as mildly frail, and >0.45 as severely frail. The association of frailty status with mortality was examined using Cox proportional hazard models. Among 8,195 older adults with a mean age of 69.2 years, 1,284 died during the 7-year follow-up. The prevalence of frailty was 16.6%. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for mortality in pre-frail was 1.76 (95% CI = 1.50-2.07), mildly frail 2.79 (95% CI = 2.33-3.35), and severely frail 6.34 (95% CI = 4.60-8.73). Having a caretaker in the same household alleviated mortality risk for severely frail participants with an aHR of 2.93 (95% CI = 1.92-4.46) compared with an aHR of 6.89 (95% CI = 3.87-12.26) among those living without a caretaker. The severity of frailty classified by the modified TFI can predict long-term mortality risk for community-dwelling older adults. Identification of severely frail older people to provide appropriate care might alleviate mortality risk. Our findings can inform policymakers to appropriately allocate services in a resource-limited setting.

1005 HEALTH-RELATED QUALITY OF LIFE AND FUTURE RISK OF HEALTH OUTCOMES AMONG OLDER ADULTS LIVING IN AUSTRALIA AND THE UNITED STATES

Abstract Introduction Poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is associated with higher morbidity and mortality in patient populations. However, whether HRQoL is associated with health outcomes among community-dwelling older people requires further investigation. This study aimed to examine whether HRQoL predicts cognitive decline, dementia, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and mortality in community-dwelling older people living in Australia and the United States. Method A cohort of 19,106 individuals from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, aged 65–98 years, initially free of dementia or CVD, and who completed the HRQoL 12-item short form (SF-12, version-2) at baseline (2010–2014), were followed until June 2017. The physical (PCS) and mental component scores (MCS) of SF-12 were generated using standardized norm-based method. Results Over a median of 4.7 years, there were 2,412 cognitive declines, 574 dementia, 922 incident CVD events, and 1,052 deaths. Using Cox proportional-hazard regression adjusted for a range of covariates, every 10-unit increase in PCS was associated with a 6% lower risk of cognitive decline, a 14% lower risk of incident CVD, and 17% lower risk of all-cause mortality, but was not associated with incident dementia. In contrast, higher MCS was only associated with a 12% and 15% lower risk of cognitive decline and dementia, respectively. Findings did not differ by sex. Conclusion Our study provides some of the first evidence that HRQoL can be used in combination with clinical data to identify the future risks of health outcomes among older individuals living in the community. Our findings support the decision of the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care to incorporate the SF-12 into the annual Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs assessment.

Could neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predict mortality in community-dwelling older people with delirium superimposed on dementia?

Delirium superimposed on dementia (DSD) is associated with adverse outcomes in older adults. Nonetheless, little is known about the association between inflammatory markers and clinical outcomes of DSD. This research investigated the predictive value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for short- and long-term mortality among community-dwelling older adults with DSD. This retrospective cohort study included 9755 older outpatients who were referred to a tertiary hospital between January 2010 and June 2021. All patients underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment and routine laboratory tests. Delirium and dementia was diagnosed with the DSM-4 or DSM-5 criteria. We recorded information on mortality during 1year following the delirium episode. Among 615 patients with dementia, 170 (26.3%) had delirium. Patients with delirium were predominantly older, with higher Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index scores, lower general cognitive performance, lower functional capability, and higher anticholinergic burden compared to those without delirium. At the 1-year follow-up, the mortality rate of DSD was 29.3%. Multivariate analysis showed that NLR at admission was an independent predictor of 1-month mortality (HR = 1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.05; p = 0.04) and 1-year mortality (HR = 1.02; 95% CI 1.01-1.05; p = 0.01) of DSD patients. NLR can predict prognosis in various diseases including cardiovascular disease, malignancies, and cerebrovascular disease, but as yet there is no similar prognostic measure in delirium. Moreover, recent previous studies demonstrated NLR is a potential marker for the prediction of delirium in older adults with different clinical settings. In the current study, we demonstrated that NLR is also a prognostic marker for DSD. NLR could be useful marker for predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients with DSD. However, further studies are needed to validate these findings.

Prediction of Mortality by the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI)

ObjectiveTo predict mortality with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) in a sample of community-dwelling older people, using a follow-up of 7 years. DesignLongitudinal. Setting and Participants479 Dutch community-dwelling people aged 75 years or older. MeasurementsThe TFI, a self-report questionnaire, was used to collect data about total, physical, psychological, and social frailty. The municipality of Roosendaal (a town in the Netherlands) provided the mortality dates. ResultsTotal, physical, and psychological frailty predicted mortality, with unadjusted hazard ratios of 1.295, 1.168, and 1.194, and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.664, 0.671, and 0.567, respectively. After adjustment for age and gender, the areas under the curves for total, physical, and psychological frailty were 0.704, 0.702, and 0.652, respectively. Analyses using individual components of the TFI show that difficulty in walking and unexplained weight loss predict mortality. Conclusions and ImplicationsThis study has shown the predictive validity of the TFI for mortality in community-dwelling older people. Our study demonstrated that physical and psychological frailty predicted mortality. Of the individual TFI components, difficulty in walking consistently predicted mortality. For identifying frailty, using the integral instrument is recommended because total, physical, psychological, and social frailty and its components have proven their value in predicting adverse outcomes of frailty, for example, increase in health care use and a lower quality of life.

Frailty Index and Sex-Specific 6-Year Mortality in Community-Dwelling Older People: The ActiFE Study.

Considering that mortality rate and deficit accumulation varies considerably in men and women, we performed a sex-stratified analysis of the association between an estimated frailty index (eFI) with 6-year mortality in the Activity and Function in the Elderly (ActiFE) Study. We constructed an eFI using a score (0 [no deficit] to 1 [deficit]) from 32 baseline items representing multiple domains. eFI represents the sum of all scores divided by 32. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, smoking, alcohol intake, and education were used to evaluate this association. Among 1,204 participants (57.5% men), 18.5% men and 26.0% women were frail (eFI ≥ 0.2) with an age-adjusted mean eFI of 0.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.12, 0.13) and 0.15 (95% CI 0.15, 0.16), respectively. Mortality rate in men (146 deaths) was 34.4 (95% CI 29.3, 40.5) and in women (50 deaths) 15.1 (95% CI 11.5, 19.9) per 1,000 person-years. A 0.1 increment of eFI was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.94 (95% CI 1.60, 2.35) in men and 2.06 (95% CI 1.58, 2.69) in women. Frail versus nonfrail men and women had a HR of 2.46 (95% CI 1.74, 3.48), and 2.98 (95% CI 1.55, 5.70), respectively. We detected sex differences in the order of the eight common contributor items to the eFI. We observed a statistically significant difference for the age-adjusted eFI and the frailty prevalence in men and women. However, our analysis does not suggest the presence of effect modification by sex in the association with mortality.

Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people: Population based prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. Participants36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50–100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. MethodsMortality risk associated with Comorbidity Index, Frailty Index, Frailty Phenotype, and subjective health was analysed using Cox regression. The extent to which health indicators modified individual mortality risk predictions was examined and the added ability to discriminate mortality risks was assessed. Main outcome measuresThree-year mortality risks, hazard ratios, change in individual mortality risks, three-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). ResultsThree-year mortality risks increased 41-folds within an age span of 50years. Hazard ratios per change in health indicator became less significant with increasing age (p-value<0·001). AUC for three-year mortality prediction based on age and sex was 76·9% (95% CI 75·5% to 78·3%). Information on health indicators modified individual three-year mortality risk predictions up to 30%, both upwards and downwards, each adding <2% discriminative power. The added discrimination ability of all health indicators gradually declined from an extra 4% at age 50–59 to <1% in the oldest old. Trends were similar for one-year mortality and not different between sexes, levels of education, and household income. ConclusionCalendar age encompasses most of the discrimination ability to predict mortality. The added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions decreases with increasing age.

Objectively Measured Walking Duration and Sedentary Behaviour and Four-Year Mortality in Older People.

BackgroundPhysical activity is an important component of health. Recommendations based on sensor measurements are sparse in older people. The aim of this study was to analyse the effect of objectively measured walking and sedentary duration on four-year mortality in community-dwelling older people.MethodsBetween March 2009 and April 2010, physical activity of 1271 participants (≥65 years, 56.4% men) from Southern Germany was measured over one week using a thigh-worn uni-axial accelerometer (activPAL; PAL Technologies, Glasgow, Scotland). Mortality was assessed during a four-year follow-up. Cox-proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the associations between walking (including low to high intensity) and sedentary duration with mortality. Models were adjusted for age and sex, additional epidemiological variables, and selected biomarkers.ResultsAn inverse relationship between walking duration and mortality with a minimum risk for the 3rd quartile (102.2 to128.4 minutes walking daily) was found even after multivariate adjustment with HRs for quartiles 2 to 4 compared to quartile 1 of 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.26; 0.76), 0.18 (95%-CI: 0.08; 0.41), 0.39 (95%-CI: 0.19; 0.78), respectively. For sedentary duration an age- and sex-adjusted increased mortality risk was observed for the 4th quartile (daily sedentary duration ≥1137.2 min.) (HR 2.05, 95%-CI: 1.13; 3.73), which diminished, however, after full adjustment (HR 1.63, 95%-CI: 0.88; 3.02). Furthermore, our results suggest effect modification between walking and sedentary duration, such that in people with low walking duration a high sedentary duration was noted as an independent factor for increased mortality.ConclusionsIn summary, walking duration was clearly associated with four-year overall mortality in community-dwelling older people.

The role of different predictors in 20-year mortality among Krakow older citizens

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to assess the change in the predictive ability of gender-related 20-year all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older people. MethodsThe baseline investigation was conducted in 1986–1987 and survival of 2472 subjects aged 65 years and older was followed up for 20 years. The associations of socioeconomic conditions and health measures with mortality were assessed using Cox hazard model with time-dependent covariates. ResultsOur study confirmed that higher education and being employed during the baseline were protective factors in males, but not among females. Healthy lifestyle was a predictive factor for all-cause mortality for both men and women and its predictive value was strong over the whole observation period. The study showed that poor self-rated health (SRH) was a valid predictor of mortality in elderly women, but not in men, and the effect of the length of follow-up on mortality was not observed. Overall, different sets of all-cause mortality predictors were found for men and women. For men the role of socioeconomic status factors was confirmed as well as healthy lifestyle and presence of chronic conditions, especially coronary heart disease (CHD) and asthma. For women the most important predictors were lifestyle factors and the feeling of life-weariness as well as SRH and diabetes mellitus present during the baseline study. ConclusionsThe impact of most of the examined factors on mortality was found to be stable over the twenty years of observation with the exception of the self-reported CHD, whose predictive value decreased over time.

CKD and Mortality Risk in Older People: A Community-Based Population Study in the United Kingdom

The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases with age; however, the prognostic significance in older people is uncertain. This study aims to determine the association of CKD with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in community-dwelling older people 75 years and older. Cohort study of people 75 years and older recruited in 1994 to 1999 to 1 arm of a trial of multidimensional health assessment with mortality follow-up. 53 general practices in Great Britain. 15,336 (73%) of those eligible participated. 13,177 (86%) had serum creatinine measured at baseline. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). All-cause and cardiovascular mortality. eGFR derived from serum creatinine level using the 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation in milliliters per minute per 1.73 m(2); dipstick proteinuria. Mortality by linkage to national death registration and death certification. After a median follow-up of 7.3 years (interquartile range, 5.0), 7,633 (58%) had died, 42% of cardiovascular causes. In the first 2 years of follow-up, adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in eGFR bands of 45 to 59, 30 to 44, and less than 30 compared with eGFR greater than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 0.93 to 1.37), 1.69 (95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 2.28), and 3.87 (95% confidence interval, 2.78 to 5.38) in men and 1.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.93 to 1.40), 1.33 (95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 1.68), and 2.44 (95% confidence interval, 1.68 to 3.56) in women, respectively. Hazard ratios were greater for cardiovascular mortality and lower after 2 years. Dipstick proteinuria was independently associated with all-cause, but not cardiovascular, mortality risk in both sexes. Single serum creatinine measurement, no calibration of serum creatinine, MDRD Study equation not validated in older people. As kidney function decreases, there is a graded and independent increase in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk in older people 75 years and older, especially in men and those with eGFR less than 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Dipstick proteinuria did not add to cardiovascular mortality risk in this elderly population. In older people, identification and management of CKD should prioritize the smaller numbers with more severe CKD.