Monthly Water Deficit Research Articles

Spatial–Temporal Variability of Climatic Water Balance in the Brazilian Savannah Region River Basins

The evaluation of water and energy cycles from the estimation of water balance is a fundamental instrument to assess the water potential of a region. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the probable monthly water deficit and surplus in Cerrado river basins and the trend of monthly data on climatic water balance (CWB) and its input variables in the study region. Monthly data on precipitation (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) from January 2003 to December 2019 were used. The deficit and the probable monthly water surplus were obtained from the CWB for each of the 4531 ottobasins. For this, the frequency equal to or greater than 80% of permanence in time was used as a reference. Trend analysis was applied. In the rainy season, most ottobasins showed positive CWB. On the other hand, in the period of lower water availability, most ottobasins showed a negative balance. In all months, there was some ottobasin with a significant trend both for CWB and for P and ETo. In most situations, these trends were a decrease in CWB and monthly P and an increase in monthly ETo.

Forecasting Monthly Water Deficit Based on Multi-Variable Linear Regression and Random Forest Models

Forecasting water deficit is challenging because it is modulated by uncertain climate, different environmental and anthropic factors, especially in arid and semi-arid northwestern China. The monthly water deficit index D at 44 sites in northwestern China over 1961−2020 were calculated. The key large-scale circulation indices related to D were screened using Pearson’s correlation (r). Subsequently, we predicted monthly D with the multi-variable linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models at certain lagged times after being strictly calibrated and validated. The results showed the following: (1) The r between the monthly D and the screened key circulation indices varied from 0.71 to 0.85 and the lagged time ranged from 1 to 12 months. (2) The calibrated and validated performance of the established MLR and RF models were all good at the 44 sites. Overall, the RF model outperformed the MLR model with a higher coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.8 at 38 sites) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE < 50% at 30 sites). (3) The Pacific Polar Vortex Intensity (PPVI) had the greatest impact on D in northwestern China, followed by SSRP, WPWPA, NANRP, and PPVA. (4) The forecasted monthly D values based on RF models indicated that the water deficit in northwestern China would be most severe (−239.7 to −62.3 mm) in August 2022. In conclusion, using multiple large-scale climate signals to drive a machine learning model is a promising method for predicting water deficit conditions in northwestern China.

Climatic characterization and evaluation of the need for supplementary irrigation for cacao in southern Bahia, Brazil

Cacao is a typical plant of a tropical climate and demands ample water. Thus, in periods of water deficit, the need for supplementary irrigation can influence crop development. This study aimed to characterize the climate and evaluate the need for supplementary irrigation for cacao crops in the south of the state of Bahia (Brazil). For this research, historical data (2001-2017) for climate variables were obtained that are available at the weather station of the Executive Commission for Cacao Cultivation Planning (CEPLAC), located in southern Bahia. With the complete database, the monthly values for each variable were calculated and subjected to descriptive statistical analyses. Subsequently, the mean values for rainfall and air temperature were used to calculate potential evapotranspiration. The climatological water balance was then calculated, defining the periods of water deficit and surplus and whether supplementary irrigation was necessary or not, based on the total monthly water deficit. Overall, the region had a favorable climate for the development of cacao. However, this pattern did not continue throughout the historical series of climatic data, which showed temporal discontinuity, especially in February. The main months requiring supplementary irrigation for the cultivation of c hern Bahia were February and December.

Fertilizer management effects on oil palm yield and nutrient use efficiency on sandy soils with limited water supply in Central Kalimantan

Identifying optimal fertilizer management to ensure high nutrient use efficiency is important to reduce negative environmental impacts in oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation. A 4-year fertilizer trial was established in an oil palm plantation, located at a sandy area with occasional monthly water deficit in Central Kalimantan. We examined the responses of oil palm yield and nutrient use efficiency to fertilizer application frequency (standard frequency of 1–2 times yr−1 versus 4 times yr−1) and rate (standard rate of 136, 12, and 200 kg ha−1 yr−1 of N, P and K, respectively versus 80% of standard rate). There were no treatment effects on annual yield in fresh fruit bunch, bunch number, or individual bunch weight. Increasing fertilizer frequency did not increase nutrient use efficiency at the last 2 years of the trial. In contrast, reducing fertilizer rate resulted in higher nutrient use efficiency in K, compared to the standard treatment and increasing fertilizer frequency. Average concentrations of N, P, K, Mg, Ca, and Cl in leaflet under all treatments were above critical levels both in the beginning and at the end of the trial. Monthly yield in fresh fruit bunch correlated positively with soil water balance with correlation coefficients of 0.24–0.29, during the developmental period of inflorescence sex differentiation at 28–30 months before fruit maturity. Our study provides useful information for fertilizer management optimization in sandy areas with occasional water deficit, corresponding to most of the new expansion areas of oil palm in Southeast Asia.

A new method and a new index for identifying socioeconomic drought events under climate change: A case study of the East River basin in China

Drought is a complex natural hazard that may have destructive damages on societal properties and even lives. Generally, socioeconomic drought occurs when water resources systems cannot meet water demand, mainly due to a weather-related shortfall in water supply. This study aims to propose a new method, a heuristic method, and a new index, the socioeconomic drought index (SEDI), for identifying and evaluating socioeconomic drought events on different severity levels (i.e., slight, moderate, severe, and extreme) in the context of climate change. First, the minimum in-stream water requirement (MWR) is determined through synthetically evaluating the requirements of water quality, ecology, navigation, and water supply. Second, according to the monthly water deficit calculated as the monthly streamflow data minus the MWR, the drought month can be identified. Third, according to the cumulative water deficit calculated from the monthly water deficit, drought duration (i.e., the number of continuous drought months) and water shortage (i.e., the largest cumulative water deficit during the drought period) can be detected. Fourth, the SEDI value of each socioeconomic drought event can be calculated through integrating the impacts of water shortage and drought duration. To evaluate the applicability of the new method and new index, this study examines the drought events in the East River basin in South China, and the impact of a multi-year reservoir (i.e., the Xinfengjiang Reservoir) in this basin on drought analysis is also investigated. The historical and future streamflow of this basin is simulated using a hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. For historical and future drought analysis, the proposed new method and index are feasible to identify socioeconomic drought events. The results show that a number of socioeconomic drought events (including some extreme ones) may occur in future, and the appropriate reservoir operation can significantly ease such situation.

저수지 가뭄지수를 활용한 농업가뭄 위험도 평가

Drought risk assessment is usually performed qualitatively and quantitatively depending on the definition a drought. The meteorological drought indices have a limit of not being able to consider the hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff, because it does not consider the water demand in paddies and water supply in reservoirs. Agricultural drought was defined as the reservoir storage shortage state that cannot satisfy water requirement from the paddy fields. The objectives of this study were to suggest improved agricultural drought risk assessment in order to evaluate of regional drought vulnerability and severity studied by using Reservoir Drought Index (RDI). The RDI is designed to simulate daily water balance between available water from agricultural reservoir and water requirement in paddies and is calculated with a frequency analysis of monthly water deficit based on water demand and water supply condition. The results indicated that RDI can be used to assess regional drought risk in agricultural perspective by comparing with the historical records of drought in 2012. It can be concluded that the RDI obtained good performance to reflect the historical drought events for both spatially and temporally. In addition, RDI is expected to contribute to determine the exact situation on the current drought condition for evaluating regional drought risk and to assist the effective drought-related decision making.

Cultivation of black truffle to promote reforestation and land-use stability

Cultivation of black truffle, Tuber melanosporum Vitt., has become an important agricultural alternative in rural Mediterranean regions due to its success in relatively harsh conditions, its high market value and diminishing production in natural areas. In addition, truffle cultivation requires relatively low agricultural inputs, promotes reforestation and economic restoration of rural lands and land-use stability. However, there remain major issues regarding the management practices to ensure successful black truffle production. We therefore conducted an experiment to evaluate 3 levels of irrigation based on monthly water deficit and the effects of currently applied weed control systems and fertilization. Treatment effects were evaluated by examining the mycorrhizal status of out-planted 1-yr-old Quercus ilex L. seedlings and seedling growth parameters after 18 months in 3 distinct experimental truffle plantations located in the foothills of the Spanish Pyrenees. We found that replacing one-half of the water deficit of the driest month (moderate irrigation) promoted the proliferation of T. melanosporum mycorrhizae, while high irrigation reduced fine root production and truffle mycorrhizae. Glyphosate weed control improved seedling survival by up to 16% over control seedlings without jeopardizing truffle mycorrhizae in the first year. Fertilization did not improve seedling growth or influence its mycorrhizal status. We describe the persistent relationship between this ectomycorrhizal fungus and Q. ilex by quantifying old and new mycorrhizae and we discuss the ecological implications of the symbiosis.

Estimation of water balance of lower Sutlej catchment up to Bhakra dam site by Thornthwaite's method

Water balance by Thornthwaite's method of lower Sutlej catchment between Rampur and Bhakra dam site has been discussed. Maps showing the monthly water deficit, water surplus, soil moisture utilisation arid soil moisture recharge for the years 1964-68 have been prepared. An estimation of the annual runoff in river Sutlej on the basis of the water balance parameters for the same period has been attempted and presented in the paper.