Forests In Montana Research Articles

Informing Sustainable Forest Management: Remote Sensing Strategies for Assessing Soil Disturbance after Wildfire and Salvage Logging

Wildfires have nearly become a guaranteed annual event in most western National Forests. Severe fire effects can be mitigated with a goal of minimizing the hydrologic response and promoting soil and vegetation recovery towards the pre-disturbance condition. Sometimes, post-fire actions include salvage logging to recover timber value and to remove excess fuels. Salvage logging was conducted after three large wildfires on the Lolo National Forest in Montana, USA, between 2017 and 2019. We evaluated detrimental soil disturbance (DSD) on seven units that were burned at low, moderate, and high soil burn severity in 2022, three to five years after the logging occurred. We found a range of exposed soil of 5%–25% and DSD from 3% to 20%, and these values were significantly correlated at r = 0.88. Very-high-resolution WorldView-2 imagery that coincided with the field campaign was used to calculate Normal Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) across the salvaged areas; we found that NDVI values were significantly correlated to DSD at r = 0.87. We were able to further examine this relationship and determined NDVI threshold values that corresponded to high-DSD areas, as well as develop a model to estimate the contributions of equipment type, seasonality, topography, and burn severity to DSD. A decision-making tool which combines these factors and NDVI is presented to support land managers in planning, evaluating, and monitoring disturbance from post-fire salvage logging.

Douglas-fir Tree Mortality Caused by the Douglas-fir Beetle in Thinned and Unthinned Stands in Montana, USA

Abstract Bark beetles are casual agents of tree mortality, often affecting landscapes with diverse topography. The Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins) (DFB) uses Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco), as its primary host. Populations often increase following disturbances such as defoliation, fires, or blowdowns and then transition into live healthy trees. Mitigating tree mortality where high mortality levels are incompatible with land manager objectives is of relevance. In this study, we compared mortality levels in eighteen thinned and twelve unthinned pure Douglas-fir stands in the Helena National Forest in Montana. Managed stands were thinned during the summers of 2014 and 2015 and tree mortality evaluated in 2017 and 2018. Douglas-fir beetle populations were at endemic levels in the study area, as represented by low observed tree mortality. Even under endemic populations, 3.6% of Douglas-firs > 12 in diameter at breast height (dbh) were killed in unthinned stands compared to 1.6% in thinned stands. Basal area of trees killed in unthinned stands was 5.4 (± 2.4) ft2/ac compared with 0.5 (± 0.3) ft2/ac in thinned stands. Although insect pressure was low, this study indicates that vegetation management could be a tool to mitigate DFB-caused tree mortality. Additional studies conducted under higher insect populations are needed. Study Implications: Douglas-fir beetle (DFB) can cause extensive mortality of Douglas-fir, particularly in dense stands of large-diameter trees with a high percentage of hosts. Vegetation management through silvicultural thinnings has been proposed as a long-term strategy to mitigate tree mortality from bark beetles. In this study, we compared tree mortality caused by DFB in thinned and unthinned Douglas-fir stands. Douglas-fir beetle populations were at low levels post-thinning and mortality levels were limited. Regardless, we observed increased mortality in denser, unthinned stands compared with thinned stands with lower tree density, suggesting that stand density reductions may mitigate DFB-caused tree mortality.

Faunistic composition of hymenopteran parasitoids in cultivation of Eucalyptus urophylla S.T. blake and adjacent areas of Seasonal Semi-deciduous Montana forest situated in the Semi-arid State of Bahia, Brazil

Hymenopteran parasitoids are insects that play a fundamental role in ecosystems as they reduce the population density of insects that are considered pests in monocultures. However, little is known about the fauna in association to the eucalyptus trees in comparison to adjacent native vegetations. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine the fauna of parasitoid wasps that occur in a commercial plantation of Eucalyptus urophylla S.T. Blake, as well as in native forest and capoeira environments in the plateau of Conquista, Bahia, a semiarid region of Bahia. The study was conducted for two consecutive years with monthly monitoring using five Malaise traps. The collected insects were sorted and identified at the family level. The faunal indices referring to the families of each area were studied by evaluating the frequency, species richness, shannon diversity and equitability. In total, 5,899 individuals were collected, which were distributed in 24 families and eight superfamilies. The most abundant families were Braconidae, Ichneumonidae and Bethylidae. Capoeira and eucalyptus trees showed greater similarity and equitability when compared to the rest of the forest. Given the diversity of Hymenopteran parasitoid families found in the area, it was concluded that the maintenance of native vegetation environments is important, even at the initial stage of succession.

Growth and defense characteristics of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var latifolia) in a high-elevation, disturbance-prone mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana, USA

Recent, widespread tree mortality in the western U.S. resulting from changes in climate, pathogens, insect activity, and forest management practices has led to concerns for many ecologically and culturally important species. Within conifers, resin-based defenses have long been recognized as a primary defense mechanism against a variety of insects and pathogens. Oleoresin produced by trees contain complex mixtures of terpenoids that have numerous insecticidal and fungicidal properties. Research has also identified links between resin duct characteristics and increased probability of survival during bark beetle outbreaks. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a culturally significant high elevation species that provides numerous ecological services within subalpine and alpine ecosystems. Whitebark pine has co-evolved with a suite of biotic and abiotic disturbances. Individual trees allocate resources towards growth and resin-based defenses, making it a good candidate species to evaluate growth and defense relationships and tradeoffs. In this study we compared constitutive resin chemistry, tree growth and resin duct anatomy between similarly aged whitebark and lodgepole pine (P. contorta var latifolia) growing in proximity within a disturbance-prone, mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana. These two host species have varying degrees of historical exposure to mountain pine beetle. Our research yields four important findings. First, we did not find evidence of a tradeoff between tree growth and tree defenses (resin duct morphology and resin chemistry). This suggests that trees growing under favorable field conditions can experience high growth rates and still allocate ample resources towards defense. Second, we found that resin ducts and constitutive mono- and sesqui- terpenes were not correlated in lodgepole pine while duct production and area were positively related to constitutive monoterpenes, and duct size and area were positively related to constitutive sesquiterpenes, in whitebark pine. The lack of distinct, consistent relationships between these defensive features suggests that both whitebark and lodgepole pine trees present beetles with numerous, complex combinations of resin-based defenses. Third, based on constitutive terpene profiles, bark beetles are more likely to enter lodgepole pine but more likely to successfully elicit mass attacks in whitebark pine, which agrees with beetle attack and success patterns observed in the field. Fourth, overstory competition, particularly by Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), can influence tree defenses, specifically by reducing constitutive terpene concentrations in lodgepole and whitebark pine. Competitive tree interactions could lead to altered bark beetle-conifer interactions as host and nonhost species migrate in response to changing climate. Our results suggest that strategies designed to support whitebark pine populations can benefit from better understanding interactions among growth, competition and physical and chemical defenses in response to multiple disturbance.

Dynamics of beetle-killed snags following mountain pine beetle outbreaks in lodgepole pine forests

Snags (standing dead trees) are important components of forest ecosystems that, among other benefits, provide critical habitat for many species of wildlife, but also represent important safety concerns to firefighters, forest workers, and the public. We identified factors that influence the fall rates of lodgepole pines, Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud., killed by bark beetles during a severe regional-scale outbreak of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, that occurred in 2004–2012. Data were obtained during annual assessments (2010–2019) of a network of 107 0.081-ha circular plots installed in P. contorta forests in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming, U.S. A total of 3789 P. contorta snags were monitored, and in each case we recorded, among other variables, the year the snag was created and the year the snag fell to the forest floor. Among snag age classes (i.e., number of years since tree death), the highest number of snags (1046) were 12 years since death (YSD), and those 13 and 14 YSD exhibited the lowest fall rates to date (<10%) despite being the oldest in our study. Snags 13 and 14 YSD were among the largest in diameter. Snag fall occurred in every snag age class from 1 to 14 YSD, with the greatest proportion of snag fall events occurring 4–8 YSD. By 2019, 24.7% (937) of snags fell to the forest floor. We modeled snag fall using a Cox’s proportional-hazards model that included six covariates of interest: elevation (m), slope aspect (categorical, cardinal direction), slope (%), canopy cover (%), snag height (m), and snag height:dbh (m, diameter at 1.37 m in height). Slope aspect had the strongest influence on fall rates. Northern aspects, increased canopy cover, and taller snag heights decreased the probability of snag fall. Conversely, southern aspects and increased height:dbh ratios (i.e., taller, skinner snags) increased the probability of snag fall. The predicted half-life (i.e., the amount of time since death required for 50% of the snag population to fall to the forest floor) was ~16 YSD after which the function predicted a linear, ~0.04/year decline in snag survival probability 15–30 YSD. The observed longevity of P. contorta snags confers important ecological benefits for some wildlife, and may offer opportunities for extended periods of salvage. However, checking (cracks) rapidly occurred, and many snags 6 YSD and older had at least one check at 1.37 m and 5.5 m in height, which can negatively impact lumber recovery. The relatively slow snag fall rates observed in our study also lengthen concerns regarding hazard trees, human safety, and protection of critical infrastructure. The implications of these and other results to management of P. contorta forests are discussed.

Changes in understory vegetation including invasive weeds following mountain pine beetle outbreaks

Bark beetle outbreaks alter forests in many ways including stand structure, fuels and fire behavior, wildlife habitat, and aesthetic value. Less understood are the effects outbreaks have on understory vegetation, despite the importance for overstory succession, nutrient cycling, water quality, soil erosion, and wildlife. Beetle outbreaks also change forests in ways that could promote invasion by nonnative weeds, but this is rarely studied. We assessed changes in cover of understory vegetation and presence/abundance of weeds in lodgepole pine forests in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming, USA following recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Incipient beetle populations began in 2004, peaked around 2008, and returned to endemic levels by 2012. Understory vegetation was sampled in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2018. Total understory cover and cover of shrubs and graminoids remained unchanged, while cover of forbs generally increased. Forb cover was negatively correlated with shrub and canopy cover. Approximately 20% of plots contained weeds and weed abundance increased over time. Presence of weeds was negatively correlated with graminoid cover and positively correlated with tree mortality and snag fall. By 2018, weed abundance was only positively correlated with snag fall. Localized soil disturbance created when snags uproot and fall appears to act as sites of weed invasion and proliferation. Lastly, we provide a global review of the effects of bark beetle outbreaks on understory vegetation which reveals a prevailing short-term increase following outbreaks, but the magnitude of response and cover type affected varies with beetle species/forest type and time since outbreak.

Incorporating wildlife connectivity into forest plan revision under the United States Forest Service's 2012 planning rule

AbstractThe United States Forest Service promulgated new planning regulations under the National Forest Management Act in 2012 (i.e., the Planning Rule). These new regulations include the first requirements in U.S. public land management history for National Forests to evaluate, protect, and/or restore ecological connectivity as they revise their land management plans. Data and resource limitations make single‐species, functional connectivity analyses for the myriad species that occur within the 78 million ha the Forest Service manages implausible. We describe an approach that relies on freely available data and generic species, virtual species whose profile consists of ecological requirements designed to reflect the needs of a group of real species, to address the new Planning Rule requirements. We present high‐resolution connectivity estimates for 10 different generic species across a 379,000 ha study area centered on the Custer Gallatin National Forest (CGNF) in Montana and South Dakota under two different movement models. We identify locations important for connectivity for multiple species and characterize the role of the CGNF for regional connectivity. Our results informed the Plan Revision process on the CGNF and could be readily exported to other National Forests currently or planning to revise their land management plans under the new Planning Rule.

Does burn severity affect plant community diversity and composition in mixed conifer forests of the United States Intermountain West one decade post fire?

BackgroundWildfire is an important ecological process in mixed conifer forests of the Intermountain West region of the USA. However, researchers and managers are concerned because climate warming has led to increased fire activity in recent decades. More area burned will result in larger land areas in early successional stages and will potentially limit tree establishment; therefore, evaluating long-term forest understory response to fire is important. We evaluate the impact of burn severity, overstory canopy cover, topography, and climate on understory plant community diversity and composition in seven wildfires, 9 to 12 years post fire, along a broad climate gradient from dry to moist mixed conifer forests in Idaho, Montana, and Washington, USA.ResultsClimate was the most important driver for species diversity and composition, but a burn severity gradient was detectable in the species data one decade post fire. A strong overlap in species composition between burn severity levels was documented, but dispersion was lower for high burn severity sites, indicating that those sites are still recovering. Local species richness and diversity had a nonlinear relationship with the burn severity index dNBR, with a maximum at low to moderate burn severity; the relationship was stronger in moist climates. Functional trait analysis revealed higher grass and forb cover in high-severity burns, higher cover of tree seedlings, residual and off-site colonizers in burned areas, and more shade-tolerant species in unburned areas. Of the 270 species recorded, 10% were introduced; however, only three were of noxious status and two were invasive annual grasses, generally occurring on dry sites.ConclusionsThe understory plant community was not fundamentally altered by these fires and fire contributed to increased species diversity both locally and regionally, suggesting that low to moderate burn severity fire is a treatment that contributes to long-term maintenance of a diverse and productive understory. Individual species traits were significant drivers of understory species assemblages and, as future change in climate and fire regimes leads to shifts in species composition, anticipation of consequences will be important. Although invasive species occurred at low cover levels, noxious weeds and invasive annual grasses will continue to be management challenges, particularly in dry regions of mixed conifer forests.

Designing Operationally Relevant Daily Large Fire Containment Strategies Using Risk Assessment Results

In this study, we aim to advance the optimization of daily large fire containment strategies for ground-based suppression resources by leveraging fire risk assessment results commonly used by fire managers in the western USA. We begin from an existing decision framework that spatially overlays fire risk assessment results with pre-identified potential wildland fire operational delineations (PODs), and then clusters PODs into a response POD (rPOD) using a mixed integer program (MIP) model to minimize expected loss. We improve and expand upon this decision framework through enhanced fire modeling integration and refined analysis of probabilistic and time-sensitive information. Specifically, we expand the set of data inputs to include raster layers of simulated burn probability, flame length probability, fire arrival time, and expected net value change, all calculated using a common set of stochastic weather forecasts and landscape data. Furthermore, we develop a secondary optimization model that, for a given optimal rPOD, dictates the timing of fire line construction activities to ensure completion of containment line prior to fire arrival along specific rPOD edges. The set of management decisions considered includes assignment of PODs to be included in the rPOD, assignment of suppression resources to protect susceptible structures within the rPOD, and assignment of suppression resources to construct fire lines, on specific days, along the perimeter of the rPOD. We explore how fire manager risk preferences regarding firefighter safety affect optimal rPOD characteristics, and use a simple decision tree to display multiple solutions and support rapid assessment of alternatives. We base our test cases on the FSPro simulation of the 2017 Sliderock Fire that burned on the Lolo National Forest in Montana, USA. The overarching goal of this research is to generate operationally relevant decision support that can best balance the benefits and losses from wildfire and the cost from responding to wildfire.

Wildfire alters belowground and surface wood decomposition on two national forests in Montana, USA

Wildfires can drastically alter belowground processes such as organic matter (OM) decomposition. We used wood stakes of two different tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.), placed at three soil locations (soil surface, forest floor–mineral soil interface, mineral soil), as an index of the long-term (5-year) effects of wildfire on OM decomposition in two forest stands after high-severity wildfire and in an unburned control. Wood stake mass loss was generally higher for aspen, especially in the mineral soil of burned plots, than in control plots after 5 years. Soil surface and interface (unburned stands only) stakes showed few significant differences for either species on the Bitterroot National Forest. On the Gallatin National Forest, both pine and aspen stakes had significantly greater mass loss at the interface (unburned stand) at the end of 5 years, and also decayed significantly faster at the 10–20-cm depth in the wildfire area. Using wood stakes as an index of soil microsite properties in burned and unburned plots, we show that fire increased both OM decomposition and mineral soil microsite variability. These results strengthen our understanding of soil-surface and belowground ecosystem responses to wildfire.

Regional differences in winter diets of bobcats in their northern range.

When generalist predators have wide geographic ranges, diets may differ dramatically, largely as a result of differing prey communities. Bobcats (Lynx rufus) are widely distributed across southern North America, with their northern range edge occurring in southern Canada and in the northern US states. Within this northern range, bobcats are exposed to cold and snowy winters and a limited number of prey species, conditions that are atypical for most of the range of bobcats. We examined winter diets of bobcats in high elevation and very snowy forests in northwest Montana to determine how these generalist predators managed in these harsh conditions in comparison with elsewhere in the northern range. Bobcats consumed five major prey types: Red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) and Cricetid rodents comprised >78% of the dietary biomass, whereas the larger snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), deer (Odocoileus spp.), and grouse were consumed much less often. The standardized niche breadth of bobcat diets was 0.29; bobcats from across the northern range also routinely ate multiple prey species, although Eastern bobcats appear to consume more lagomorphs than do Western bobcats. These results indicate that bobcats remain generalists in difficult winter conditions while preying primarily on small‐bodied prey, although bobcats have highly variable diets across their northern range.

Social preferences toward energy generation with woody biomass from public forests in Montana, USA

In Montana, USA, there are substantial opportunities for mechanized thinning treatments on public forests to reduce the likelihood of severe and damaging wildfires and improve forest health. These treatments produce residues that can be used to generate renewable energy and displace fossil fuels. The choice modeling method is employed to examine the marginal willingness of Montanans' to pay (MWTP) for woody biomass energy produced from treatments in their public forests. The survey instrument elicited social preferences for important co-benefits and costs of woody biomass energy generation in Montana, namely the extent of healthy forests, the number of large wildfires, and local air quality. Positive and statistically significant MWTP is found for woody biomass energy generation, forest health and air quality. MWTP to avoid large wildfires is statistically insignificant. However, MWTP for woody biomass energy diminishes quickly, revealing that Montanans do not support public forestland management that produces more than double the current level of woody biomass harvested for energy generation. These findings can be used by policy makers and public land managers to estimate the social benefits of utilizing residues from public forest restoration or fuel treatment programs to generate energy.

The impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on the energy balance of snow during the melt period

AbstractMountain snowpacks provide most of the annual discharge of western US rivers, but the future of water resources in the western USA is tenuous, as climatic changes have resulted in earlier spring melts that have exacerbated summer droughts. Compounding changes to the physical environment are biotic disturbances including that of the mountain pine beetle (MPB), which has decimated millions of acres of western North American forests. At the watershed scale, MPB disturbance increases the peak hydrograph, and at the stand scale, the ‘grey’ phase of MPB canopy disturbance decreases canopy snow interception, increases snow albedo, increases net shortwave radiation, and decreases net longwave radiation versus the ‘red’ phase. Fewer studies have been conducted on the red phase of MPB disturbance and in the mixed coniferous stands that may follow MPB‐damaged forests. We measured the energy balance of four snowpacks representing different stages of MPB damage, management, and recovery: a lodgepole pine stand, an MPB‐infested stand in the red phase, a mixed coniferous stand (representing one successional trajectory), and a clear‐cut (representing reactive management) in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in Montana, USA. Net longwave radiation was lower in the MPB‐infested stand despite higher basal area and plant area index of the other forests, suggesting that the desiccated needles serve as a less effective thermal buffer against longwave radiative losses. Eddy covariance observations of sensible and latent heat flux indicate that they are of similar but opposite magnitude, on the order of 20 MJ m−2 during the melt period. Further analyses reveal that net turbulent energy fluxes were near zero because of the temperature and atmospheric vapour pressure encountered during the melt period. Future research should place snow science in the context of forest succession and management and address important uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of needlefall events. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Model-based analysis of the influence of catchment properties on hydrologic partitioning across five mountain headwater subcatchments.

Ungauged headwater basins are an abundant part of the river network, but dominant influences on headwater hydrologic response remain difficult to predict. To address this gap, we investigated the ability of a physically based watershed model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model) to represent controls on metrics of hydrologic partitioning across five adjacent headwater subcatchments. The five study subcatchments, located in Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest in central Montana, have similar climate but variable topography and vegetation distribution. This facilitated a comparative hydrology approach to interpret how parameters that influence partitioning, detected via global sensitivity analysis, differ across catchments. Model parameters were constrained a priori using existing regional information and expert knowledge. Influential parameters were compared to perceptions of catchment functioning and its variability across subcatchments. Despite between‐catchment differences in topography and vegetation, hydrologic partitioning across all metrics and all subcatchments was sensitive to a similar subset of snow, vegetation, and soil parameters. Results also highlighted one subcatchment with low certainty in parameter sensitivity, indicating that the model poorly represented some complexities in this subcatchment likely because an important process is missing or poorly characterized in the mechanistic model. For use in other basins, this method can assess parameter sensitivities as a function of the specific ungauged system to which it is applied. Overall, this approach can be employed to identify dominant modeled controls on catchment response and their agreement with system understanding.

Vegetation, topography and daily weather influenced burn severity in central Idaho and western Montana forests

Burn severity as inferred from satellite‐derived differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) is useful for evaluating fire impacts on ecosystems but the environmental controls on burn severity across large forest fires are both poorly understood and likely to be different than those influencing fire extent. We related dNBR to environmental variables including vegetation, topography, fire danger indices, and daily weather for daily areas burned on 42 large forest fires in central Idaho and western Montana. The 353 fire days we analyzed burned 111,200 ha as part of large fires in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2011. We expected that local “bottom‐up” variables like topography and vegetation would influence burn severity, but that our use of daily dNBR and weather data would uncover stronger relationships between the two than previous studies have shown. We found that percent existing vegetation cover had the largest influence on burn severity, while weather variables like fine fuel moisture, relative humidity, and wind speed were also influential but somewhat less important. Our results could reflect contrasting scales of predictor variables, as many topography and vegetation variables (30‐m spatial resolution) accounted for more of the variability in burn severity (also 30‐m spatial resolution) than did fire danger indices and many daily weather variables (4‐km spatial resolution). However, we posit that, in contrast to the strong influence of climate and weather on fire extent, “bottom‐up” factors such as topography and vegetation have the most influence on burn severity. While climate and weather certainly interact with the landscape to affect burn severity, pre‐fire vegetation conditions due to prior disturbance and management strongly affect vegetation response even when large areas burn quickly.

A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior by overlaying simulated fire perimeters with mapped HVRA polygons to estimate conditional distributions of HVRA area burned. This information can be especially useful for assessing risks where cumulative effects and the spatial pattern and extent of area burned influence HVRA response to fire. We illustrate our modeling approach and demonstrate application across real-world landscapes for two case studies: first, a comparative analysis of exposure and area burned across ten municipal watersheds on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in Montana, USA, and second, fireshed delineation and exposure analysis of a geographically isolated and limited area of critical wildlife habitat on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests in Colorado, USA. We highlight how this information can be used to inform prioritization and mitigation decisions and can be used complementarily with more traditional pixel-based burn probability and fire intensity metrics in an expanded exposure analysis framework.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning.

Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure

The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary components: (1) wildfire hazard, which we characterize with burn probability, fireline intensity, and a composite index, and (2) geospatial intersection of watershed polygons with spatially resolved wildfire hazard metrics. This effort enhances investigation into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior and enables quantitative comparisons of exposure across watersheds on the basis of a novel, integrated measure of wildfire hazard. As a case study, we consider the municipal watersheds located on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest (BDNF) in Montana, United States. We present simulation results to highlight exposure across watersheds and generally demonstrate vast differences in fire likelihood, fire behavior, and expected area burned among the analyzed municipal watersheds. We describe how this information can be incorporated into risk-based strategic fuels management planning and across the broader wildfire management spectrum. To conclude, we discuss strengths and limitations of our approach and offer potential future expansions.

Fuel treatment impacts on estimated wildfire carbon loss from forests in Montana, Oregon, California, and Arizona

Using forests to sequester carbon in response to anthropogenically induced climate change is being considered across the globe. A recent U.S. executive order mandated that all federal agencies account for sequestration and emissions of greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of understanding how forest carbon stocks are influenced by wildfire. This paper reports the effects of the most common forest fuel reduction treatments on carbon pools composed of live and dead biomass as well as potential wildfire emissions from six different sites in four western U.S. states. Additionally, we predict the median forest product life spans and uses of materials removed during mechanical treatments. Carbon loss from modeled wildfire‐induced tree mortality was lowest in the mechanical plus prescribed fire treatments, followed by the prescribed fire‐only treatments. Wildfire emissions varied from 10–80 Mg/ha and were lowest in the prescribed fire and mechanical followed by prescribed fire treatments at most sites. Mean biomass removals per site ranged from approximately 30–60 dry Mg/ha; the median lives of products in first use varied considerably (from &lt;10 to &gt;50 years). Our research suggests most of the benefits of increased fire resistance can be achieved with relatively small reductions in current carbon stocks. Retaining or growing larger trees also reduced the vulnerability of carbon loss from wildfire. In addition, modeled vulnerabilities to carbon losses and median forest product life spans varied considerably across our study sites, which could be used to help prioritize treatment implementation.

Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from the United States forest service northern region, 1906-2010

BackgroundGlobal forests capture and store significant amounts of CO2 through photosynthesis. When carbon is removed from forests through harvest, a portion of the harvested carbon is stored in wood products, often for many decades. The United States Forest Service (USFS) and other agencies are interested in accurately accounting for carbon flux associated with harvested wood products (HWP) to meet greenhouse gas monitoring commitments and climate change adaptation and mitigation objectives. This paper uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) production accounting approach and the California Forest Project Protocol (CFPP) to estimate HWP carbon storage from 1906 to 2010 for the USFS Northern Region, which includes forests in northern Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, and eastern Washington.ResultsBased on the IPCC approach, carbon stocks in the HWP pool were increasing at one million megagrams of carbon (MgC) per year in the mid 1960s, with peak cumulative storage of 28 million MgC occurring in 1995. Net positive flux into the HWP pool over this period is primarily attributable to high harvest levels in the mid twentieth century. Harvest levels declined after 1970, resulting in less carbon entering the HWP pool. Since 1995, emissions from HWP at solid waste disposal sites have exceeded additions from harvesting, resulting in a decline in the total amount of carbon stored in the HWP pool. The CFPP approach shows a similar trend, with 100-year average carbon storage for each annual Northern Region harvest peaking in 1969 at 937,900 MgC, and fluctuating between 84,000 and 150,000 MgC over the last decade.ConclusionsThe Northern Region HWP pool is now in a period of negative net annual stock change because the decay of products harvested between 1906 and 2010 exceeds additions of carbon to the HWP pool through harvest. However, total forest carbon includes both HWP and ecosystem carbon, which may have increased over the study period. Though our emphasis is on the Northern Region, we provide a framework by which the IPCC and CFPP methods can be applied broadly at sub-national scales to other regions, land management units, or firms.