Changes In Monsoon Rainfall Research Articles

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

Fast response of global monsoon area and precipitation to regional carbonaceous aerosols

Monsoon exerts a significant social and economic impact on billions of people around the world. Changes in global monsoon (GM) rainfall under global warming have been well studied; however, the understanding of GM connection with regional aerosol emissions is limited. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we attempt to quantify the response of global monsoon area and precipitation to the removal of carbonaceous aerosols over North America (AM), North Africa (AF), Europe (EU), and Asia (AS). Response to the emission removal, the global average aerosol optical depths (AOD) are reduced by 2.21%, 1.8%, 1.16%, and 3.8% respectively. A southward shift in the GM domain is observed, responding to changes in magnitude and position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, when carbonaceous aerosols are removed over these regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The percentage departure in the area-averaged GM precipitation is found to be 4-fold in magnitude for the removal of emissions over EU when compared to that of AM and AF. A shrinkage in the GM area is also observed, which is maximum for EU (∼−30%) compared to AM and AF (∼−25%). The change in GM precipitation and area are found to be the least and opposite in nature for AS emissions. This study provides insight into the regional nature of carbonaceous aerosol effects on global precipitation.

Hydrological changes in the drought‐prone region of Maharashtra (India): Implications for sustainable water use

Recent climatic changes and anthropogenic activities considerably affect regional water resources, particularly in water‐scarce regions. The present study, therefore, aims to understand the changes in monsoon rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET), surface runoff, dam storage and groundwater in the drought‐prone region of Maharashtra. The analyses of trend and step‐change were carried out using standard parametric tests. The results were verified with the application of non‐parametric statistical techniques. Notably, monsoon rainfall and runoff were observed to be declining. Exceptionally, the Yerala Basin witnessed significant increase in rainfall along with heavy rainfall events. Contradictorily, Agrani and Man Basins registered a notable decline in rainfall and runoff. As vulnerability to hydrological disasters is high, these basins should be carefully monitored. Although surface water harvesting brought a positive change in post‐monsoon groundwater level, it was the main reason for a decline in runoff volume at downstream reaches, which led to intra‐basin water disparity. The study area witnessed significant increase in groundwater extraction. Unfortunately, the misuse of government‐subsidized schemes exacerbates groundwater exploitation and stockpiling of water resources. Moreover, the increasing rate of PET augments hydrological losses and amplifies water distress. Interestingly, almost all the hydrological changes were notably experienced during the post‐2000 period. To cope with present and future water scarcity problems, it is therefore necessary to restrict irrational use and allocation of available limited water resources. The findings that emerge from this investigation may help to formulate judicious water policies and plans which could be implemented by the government, agronomists, water resource managers and farmers.

Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years

Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean–atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only indices that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. At the interannual-to-decadal timescale, WAMR variability is largely influenced by Pacific–Atlantic – Mediterranean Sea teleconnections in all simulations; the exact configurations are model sensitive. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability depicts marked multi-centennial oscillations, with La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weakening and/or poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems over the Atlantic favoring wet WAMR anomalies. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability also depicts an overall decreasing trend throughout the Holocene that is consistent among the simulations. This decreasing trend relates to changes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature variability.

Future changes of summer monsoon rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh using 27 CMIP6 models

This research aims to investigate the future changes in summer monsoon rainfall and temperature in Bangladesh. The study revealed that INM-CM5-0 is the best model for projecting temperature, while BCC-CSM2-MR is the best model for projecting rainfall over Bangladesh. Using data from a large ensemble of 27 models from CMIP6, the study examined the rainfall and temperature change projections of Bangladesh during the twenty first century relative to the reference period (1981–2014) under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the multi-model ensemble monsoon mean rainfall over Bangladesh will fluctuate between 40 and 260 mm and 100 and 900 mm, respectively. In most parts of the country’s north, northeastern, and western regions, the projected changes in spatial patterns of monsoon rainfall indicate an increase in rainfall. The projected temperature indicated that Bangladesh’s northwest and west-central areas could face the most significant rise in temperatures, surpassing 3.8 °C under SSP5-8.5.

Eccentricity-paced geomagnetic field and monsoon rainfall variations over the last 870 kyr

Whether there are links between geomagnetic field and Earth's orbital parameters remains unclear. Synchronous reconstructions of parallel long-term quantitative geomagnetic field and climate change records are rare. Here, we present 10Be-derived changes of both geomagnetic field and Asian monsoon (AM) rainfall over the last 870kyr from the Xifeng loess-paleosol sequence on the central Chinese Loess Plateau. The10BeGM flux (a proxy for geomagnetic field-induced 10Be production rate) reveals 13consecutive geomagnetic excursions in the Brunhes chron, which are synchronized with the global records, providing key time markers for Chinese loess-paleosol sequences. The10Be-derived rainfall exhibits distinct ~100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles, and superimposed precessional (~23 kyr) cycles that match with those in Chinese speleothem δ18O record. We find that changes in the geomagnetic field and AM rainfall share a common ~100 kyr cyclicity, implying a likely eccentricity modulation of both the geomagnetic field and climate.

Climate and sea level forcing of terrigenous sediments input to the eastern Arabian Sea since the last glacial period

Analyses of mass accumulation rate (MAR), laser grain-size, clay mineralogy, and SrNd isotopic compositions of <2 μm and < 63 μm grain-size fractions have been applied to sediments from the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1456, which span the last 31 ka, in order to constrain (i) past changes in the relative proportions of the fine-grained detrital sediments derived from the Indus River and the Deccan Traps and the dynamics of sediment transport to the Laxmi Basin and (ii) past changes in Indian monsoon rainfall and latitudinal migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone since the last glacial period. Sr and Nd isotopes results combined with clay mineral assemblages suggest that clay-sized sediments at IODP Site U1456 derive mainly from the Indus River (70–90%), followed by a minor contribution from rivers draining the volcanic province of the Deccan Traps (10–30%). During the Last Glacial Maximum, clay mineralogy was dominated by illite and chlorite primarily derived from the highlands of the Indus River basin. The combination of lower temperatures and lower monsoonal rainfall during glacial times led to a reduction of smectite formation rates in the floodplains, while glacial erosion accelerated in the Himalayan and Tibetan highlands leading to the release of large quantities of illite and chlorite minerals into the Arabian Sea. In addition, glacial low sea-level stands allowed a connection between river mouths and the heads of deep-sea channels favoring the southward transfer of sediments to IODP Site U1456 by turbidity currents. Each maximum of the summer insolation curve, associated with a northward shift of the ITCZ and an intensification of summer monsoon rainfall (from 31 to 25 ka BP and from 12 to 8 cal ka BP), was associated with enhanced rainfall in the Indus floodplain which in turn led to an increase in the physical erosion and weathering of plain soils, which were rich in pedogenic minerals (such as smectite), and/or a higher production rate of smectite in the soils of the Indus floodplain. A compilation of three Nd isotopic composition records obtained at sites located on a N-S latitudinal transect in the eastern Arabian Sea have allowed us to establish the impact of sea level variations and latitudinal migration of the ITCZ over time on the sedimentation of the eastern Arabian Sea.

Projected near-term changes in monsoon precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the HighResMIP multi-model ensembles

Changes in the monsoon season rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia by the mid-21st century are examined using multi-model ensemble data from the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments. We examine simulations of the present and future climate simulations run under a high emission scenario of greenhouse gases from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The combined effects of horizontal and vertical resolutions on the projected changes in monsoon rainfall and associated environmental fields are investigated by comparing the ensemble mean of the projected changes utilizing appropriate multi-model groupings. The results indicate a projected decrease (by up to 11% near Mersing of eastern Johor, for the period 2031–2050 relative to 1981–2000) in monsoon precipitation along the southeastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia during the northeast monsoon season associated with the projected weakening of the monsoon flow during boreal winter. For the northwestern regions (e.g. Perak) often affected by severe floods, a significant increase in precipitation (by up to 33%) is projected during the southwest monsoon season, partly driven by the projected strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow and the weakened low-level anti-cyclonic shear of winds in boreal summer. However, the magnitudes and signal-to-noise ratios of the projected changes vary considerably with respect to different horizontal and vertical resolutions. Firstly, models with relatively high horizontal and vertical resolutions project a more significant decrease in precipitation during the northeast monsoon season. Secondly, for the southwest monsoon season, models with relatively high horizontal resolutions project larger magnitudes of increases in precipitation over the northern region, while smaller increases are found in simulations with relatively high vertical resolutions. Generally, reduced ensemble spread and increased signal-to-noise ratios are found in simulations at higher horizontal and vertical resolutions, suggesting increased confidence in model projections with increased model resolution.

Pleistocene drivers of Northwest African hydroclimate and vegetation

Savanna ecosystems were the landscapes for human evolution and are vital to modern Sub-Saharan African food security, yet the fundamental drivers of climate and ecology in these ecosystems remain unclear. Here we generate plant-wax isotope and dust flux records to explore the mechanistic drivers of the Northwest African monsoon, and to assess ecosystem responses to changes in monsoon rainfall and atmospheric pCO2. We show that monsoon rainfall is controlled by low-latitude insolation gradients and that while increases in precipitation are associated with expansion of grasslands into desert landscapes, changes in pCO2 predominantly drive the C3/C4 composition of savanna ecosystems.

Observed southwest monsoon rainfall changes in Sri Lanka and possible mechanisms

Observed southwest monsoon rainfall changes in Sri Lanka and possible mechanisms

Understanding global monsoon precipitation changes during the 8.2 ka event and the current warm period

Global monsoon (GM) precipitation has profound impacts on water resources, food security, and the livelihood of about two-thirds of the world's population. Understanding the contrasting changes of GM precipitation (GMP) during the 8.2 ka cold event and the present-day warm event helps better comprehend the common origin of the GMP change and its future projection. We analyzed a suite of transient climate evolutions (TraCE-21 ka simulation). We show that the simulated monsoon rainfall changes during the 8.2 ka abrupt cooling event are qualitatively consistent with the paleoclimate archive collected worldwide. The simulated Northern Hemisphere monsoon (NHM) precipitation significantly decreased by 12.4% per one degree of global mean temperature change (12.4%/°C) while the Southern Hemisphere monsoon (SHM) precipitation increased by 4.2%/°C. The cooling-induced suppressed upward motion plays a dominant role in reducing NHM precipitation, and the reduced moisture adds to the circulation effect, whereas the enhanced SHM precipitation is mainly due to the moisture increase. In the 8.2 ka event, the circulation response reinforces the moisture-induced drought over the NHM region, resulting in an excessive precipitation sensitivity to temperature change (12.4%/°C). In contrast, during the present warm period, the greenhouse warming-induced moisture and circulation effects cancel each other, resulting in a moderate sensitivity (1.8%/°C). Although meltwater and greenhouse gas forcings induce contrasting global temperature change patterns, the GMP changes are governed by common root causes: forced NH-SH thermal contrast, land-ocean thermal contrast, and the tropical SST gradients. The moisture change plays a crucial role in altering precipitation amount but not spatial distribution. We suggest that the external forcing-induced warming (cooling) pattern drives the circulation changes (dynamic effects), determining the spatial structure of the monsoon rainfall change in the past, present, and future.

Changes in the ENSO–ISMR relationship in the historical and future projection periods based on coupled models

AbstractWe examine the projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) along with their changing relationships by the end of 21st century using Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models. The historical (1951–2005) and future (2050–2099) projections of ISMR were assessed in addition to the changes in the ENSO–ISMR relationship during both the periods. The future period was selected as 2050–2099 in order to understand how the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and global warming by the end of 21st century will affect the ocean atmosphere interactions over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the associated rainfall characteristics over the Indian region. For the future projection, we considered Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the five models (CNRM‐CM5, GISS‐E2‐R, GISS‐E2‐R‐CC, HadGEM2‐CC and IPSL‐CM5A‐MR), which were selected from the 25 CMIP5 models based on their ability to capture the seasonal cycle and variability in the historical period. Although, all the five models simulate an increase in ISMR in both the RCPs, the increase is well simulated by CNRM‐CM5, HadGEM2‐CC and IPSL‐CM5A‐MR models mainly over the northeast, west coast, foothills of Himalayas, central India and the peninsular Indian regions. Substantial differences in simulating the ENSO–ISMR relationship are observed among the models in both historical and future RCP scenarios, and the observed relationship is well represented in GISS‐E2‐R‐CC, HadGEM2‐CC and IPSL‐CM5A‐MR models. The rainfall over most of the Indian regions shows a significant decrease (increase) during El Niño (La Niña) events in RCP 4.5. The changes in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and Walker circulations over the Indo‐Pacific region during El Niño and La Niña events are connected with the ISMR characteristics during these events in the RCP 4.5 scenario. On the other hand, the Indo‐Pacific region undergoes total warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña) events, and the Indo‐Pacific SST does not exhibit significant variability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Hence, they are not well related with the observed ISMR patterns in that scenario.

High‐resolution climate change projection of northeast monsoon rainfall over peninsular India

AbstractIn this study, projected changes in mean northeast monsoon (NEM) rainfall and associated extreme rainfall and temperature events, over peninsular India (PI) and its six subdivisions, are quantified. High‐resolution dynamically downscaled simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model driven by the boundary conditions from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) model (WRF‐CCSM4) are compared with statistically downscaled simulations of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP). Over PI, these downscaled simulations show low bias in mean NEM rainfall (≤ − 0.44 mm·day−1) and high pattern correlation coefficient (≥0.75), giving confidence in their future projections. Under future warming over PI, both downscaled simulations project future significant enhancement in NEM rainfall with WRF‐CCSM4 projecting 1.98 mm·day−1 (83.78% change with respect to the present‐day mean) whereas the multimodel ensemble (MME) of eight NEX‐GDDP models project 0.67 ± 0.58 mm·day−1 (19.78%) by the midddle of the century and 1.42 ± 0.97 mm·day−1 (42.76%) by the end of the century. Analysis of extreme rainfall events shows that WRF‐CCSM4 projects future enhancement (reduction) in extreme rainfall (R95p) days over 91.4% (8.6%) of grid‐points over PI. In future, coastal areas of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh will likely experience increased extreme rainfall occurrence by more than 25 days and 15–20 days respectively. Projected future enhancement in the mean and extreme NEM rainfall is attributed to the increased precipitable water under a warming climate. Future projection of extreme temperature indices shows an increase in minimum and maximum temperatures over PI during the NEM season. Over PI, future winter nights and days are found to be warmer than those in the present day and the temperature change in future winter nights is found to be larger than that in winter days. This climate change information would help decision‐makers in evaluating existing policies and devising revised policies to reduce risk due to climate change.

Coupled morphologic and demographic responses of Opeas striatissimum (Gastropoda: Subulinidae) to latest Pleistocene to early Holocene climate fluctuations

In this paper, we report late Pleistocene to Holocene changes in the shell size and age structure of the gastropod, Opeas striatissimum, in two loess profiles in the Chinese Loess Plateau, spanning the past 27 ka. During the interval of ~17–8 ka, in response to climatic warming, we observed marked increases in shell dimensions and a more diverse age structure (age classes), as well as a ~20% increase in the number of adult individuals. Shell growth and enhanced survival from juvenile to adult, in turn, resulted in an increase in the population size, which reached a maximum during the interval ~8–3 ka, corresponding to the Holocene Climatic Optimum. We also observed an abrupt decrease in shell height and related significant decreases in the total number of individuals of Opeas striatissimum and adult individuals at the time of the Younger Dryas cold climatic event. We suggest that the observed morphologic and demographic changes observed for Opeas striatissimum reflect changes in the growing season, linked to changes in monsoon rainfall and climate stability, in response to climate fluctuations from the late Pleistocene to the Holocene. Our study provides a long-term perspective that helps refine mechanistic population models of invertebrates in the face of future climate change.

Implementation of Artificial Intelligence Based Ensemble Models for Gully Erosion Susceptibility Assessment

The Rarh Bengal region in West Bengal, particularly the eastern fringe area of the Chotanagpur plateau, is highly prone to water-induced gully erosion. In this study, we analyzed the spatial patterns of a potential gully erosion in the Gandheswari watershed. This area is highly affected by monsoon rainfall and ongoing land-use changes. This combination causes intensive gully erosion and land degradation. Therefore, we developed gully erosion susceptibility maps (GESMs) using the machine learning (ML) algorithms boosted regression tree (BRT), Bayesian additive regression tree (BART), support vector regression (SVR), and the ensemble of the SVR-Bee algorithm. The gully erosion inventory maps are based on a total of 178 gully head-cutting points, taken as the dependent factor, and gully erosion conditioning factors, which serve as the independent factors. We validated the ML model results using the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy (ACC), true skill statistic (TSS), and Kappa coefficient index. The AUC result of the BRT, BART, SVR, and SVR-Bee models are 0.895, 0.902, 0.927, and 0.960, respectively, which show very good GESM accuracies. The ensemble model provides more accurate prediction results than any single ML model used in this study.

Future Changes and Controlling Factors of the Eight Regional Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models

AbstractAn accurate prediction of land monsoon precipitation (LMP) is critical for the sustainable future of the planet as it provides water resources for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here, we show that the ensemble mean of 24 CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models projects that, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) scenario, summer LMP will very likely increase in South Asia (~4.1% °C−1), likely increase in East Asia (~4.6% °C−1) and northern Africa (~2.9% °C−1), and likely decrease in North America (~−2.3% °C−1). The annual mean LMP in three Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions will likely remain unchanged due to significantly decreased winter precipitation. Regional mean LMP changes are dominated by the change in upward moisture transport with moderate contribution from evaporation and can be approximated by the changes of the product of the midtropospheric ascent and 850-hPa specific humidity. Greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced thermodynamic effects increase moisture content and stabilize the atmosphere, tending to offset each other. The spatially uniform increase of humidity cannot explain markedly different regional LMP changes. Intermodel spread analysis demonstrates that the GHG-induced circulation changes (dynamic effects) are primarily responsible for the regional differences. The GHGs induce a warm land–cool ocean pattern that strengthens the Asian monsoon, and a warm North Atlantic and Sahara that enhances the northern African monsoon, as well as an equatorial central Pacific warming that weakens the North American monsoon. CMIP6 models generally capture realistic monsoon rainfall climatology, but commonly overproduce summer rainfall variability. The models’ biases in projected regional SST and land–sea thermal contrast likely contribute to the models’ uncertainties in the projected monsoon rainfall changes.

Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model

Climate change is supposed to alter not only the mean and variability but also the distribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall distribution during the monsoon months (June to September) of Bangladesh are evaluated in this study using quantile regression. Monthly rainfall data for the period 1961–2014 recorded at 18 locations distributed over the country were used for this purpose. Distributional changes of monthly rainfall showed downward convergent lines are dominant in peak monsoon months of June, July and August at 28%, 50% and 28% stations, respectively, followed by horizontally divergent lines at 17% of stations during those months. The dominating category of last monsoon month (September) rainfall was found upward divergent lines at 50% stations. The results revealed a decrease in many rainfall quantiles from June to August and increase in September in most of the stations. The increasing trend lines of September rainfall quantiles were found to become more diverse with time, which indicates an increase in rainfall extremes and the possibility of more floods which are already very common in the last month of monsoon in Bangladesh. The decrease in lower quantiles of rainfall in most of the monsoon months may cause an increase in the probability of droughts in the country. The study provided more insight on monsoon rainfall changes and improved understanding of climate change impacts on monsoon rainfall regime which can help in planning climate change adaptations in Bangladesh.

Last Deglaciation—Holocene Australian-Indonesian Monsoon Rainfall Changes Off Southwest Sumba, Indonesia

Previous studies suggested the multi-millennial scale changes of Australian-Indonesian monsoon (AIM) rainfall, but little is known about their mechanism. Here, AIM rainfall changes since the Last Deglaciation (~18 ka BP) are inferred from geochemical elemental ratios (terrigenous input) and palynological proxies (pollen and spores). Pollen and spores indicate drier Last Deglaciation (before ~11 ka BP) and wetter Holocene climates (after ~11 ka BP). Terrigenous input proxies infer three drier periods (i.e., before ~17, ~15–13.5, and 7–3 ka BP) and three wetter periods (i.e., ~17–15, ~13.5–7, and after ~3 ka BP) which represent the Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) rainfall changes. Pollen and spores were highly responsive to temperature changes and showed less sensitivity to rainfall changes due to their wider source area, indicating their incompatibility as rainfall proxy. During the Last Deglaciation, AISM rainfall responded to high latitude climatic events related to the latitudinal shifts of the austral summer ITCZ. Sea level rise, solar activity, and orbitally-induced insolation were most likely the primary driver of AISM rainfall changes during the Holocene, but the driving mechanisms behind the latitudinal shifts of the austral summer ITCZ during this period are not yet understood.

Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing

A number of studies have investigated the mechanisms that determine changes in precipitation, including how a wet region gets wetter. However, not all monsoon areas get wetter—there is a need to understand the major factors behind changes in regional monsoon precipitation, in terms of external forcing and internal variabilities in the last six decades by a combination of different observed datasets and model runs. We have found that time of emergence of anthropogenic signals is robustly detected in the northern African monsoon before the 1990s with the use of the CESM Large Ensemble Project. From CMIP5 model runs and three reanalysis datasets, the results found are that the change in rainfall over African monsoon (AFM) is mainly due to anthropogenic forcing and that over Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) is affected by internal variability. Moreover, the cause of American monsoon (AMM) rainfall change cannot be known due to a discrepancy among observed datasets. Here we show that the asymmetry between Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) parts by green-house gas (GHG) is detected over the AFM and AAM regions. However, the land monsoon rainfall in the northern AMM is decreased by a combination of GHG and aerosol forcing. In general, the aerosol forcing causes a decreasing rainfall over the monsoon regions. In future projection, the land rainfall over the AAM and AMM are expected to increase and decrease in the future from most models’ results. The asymmetry between an increase in NH and a decrease in SH is dominant in the future from most models’ future simulation results, which is well shown over the AFM and AAM. This study suggests that the physical process of GHG and aerosol effects in rainfall should be explored in the context of regional aspects.

Deciphering Oxygen Isotope Records From Chinese Speleothems With an Isotope‐Enabled Climate Model

AbstractSpeleothem δ18O is widely used to reconstruct past hydroclimate variability, particularly over Asia. However, the interpretation of this proxy is still in debate. While this proxy is originally interpreted as regional rainfall amount of the Asian monsoon, other studies have interpreted it as upstream monsoon rainfall or atmospheric circulation changes. To better understand the signal preserved in speleothems over various time scales, this study employs a state‐of‐the‐art isotope‐enabled climate model to quantify contributions to the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation ( ) over China. Results suggest that orbital‐scale speleothem δ18O variations at Chinese sites mainly record the meridional migration of the Asian monsoon circulation, accompanied by an early northward movement of the East Asian rain belt. At interannual scales, Chinese speleothem δ18O is also tied to the intensity of monsoonal circulation, via a change in moisture source locations: Enhanced moisture delivery from remote source regions leads to more negative , particularly in late summer and early autumn. Our results have implications for the hydroclimatic interpretation of speleothem δ18O from Chinese caves and suggest that this interpretation is time scale dependent.