Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas Research Articles

Reconstructed eight-century streamflow in the Tibetan Plateau reveals contrasting regional variability and strong nonstationarity

Short instrumental streamflow records in the South and East Tibetan Plateau (SETP) limit understanding of the full range and long-term variability in streamflow, which could greatly impact freshwater resources for about one billion people downstream. Here we reconstruct eight centuries (1200−2012 C.E.) of annual streamflow from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas in five headwater regions across the SETP. We find two regional patterns, including northern (Yellow, Yangtze, and Lancang-Mekong) and southern (Nu-Salween and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra) SETP regions showing ten contrasting wet and dry periods, with a dividing line of regional moisture regimes at ~32°−33°N identified. We demonstrate strong temporal nonstationarity in streamflow variability, and reveal much greater high/low mean flow periods in terms of duration and magnitude: mostly pre-instrumental wetter conditions in the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra and drier conditions in other rivers. By contrast, the frequency of extreme flows during the instrumental periods for the Yangtze, Nu-Salween, and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra has increased by ~18% relative to the pre-instrumental periods.

Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India

Consecutive failures in the summer monsoon rainfall led to widespread and severe droughts with profound implications for agricultural activities in India. However, the likelihood of successive megadroughts in India’s past and future climate remain poorly understood. Using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), we show that the major famines that affected millions of people during 1200–2018 were linked with summer monsoon droughts. Four megadroughts covering more than 40% of the country occurred for two consecutive summer monsoon seasons during 1200–2018. The most recent and severe megadrought occurred in 2002–2003. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the last millennium (850–2005) ensemble (LME) show that the likelihood of two and three-year consecutive megadroughts during the summer monsoon is about 0.7 and 0.3 events per 100 years, respectively. Large ensemble simulations from CESM (CESM-LE) show a decline in the frequency of megadroughts in the future. Summer monsoon megadroughts are strongly associated with the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific Ocean in the past and future climate. Substantial warming under the projected future climate can cause megadroughts under near-normal precipitation during the summer monsoon season. Despite the projected decline in the likelihood of the summer monsoon megadroughts under the warming climate, megadroughts in the future can have considerable implications for India’s food production and water availability.

Intercomparisons of multiproxy-based gridded precipitation datasets in Monsoon Asia: cross-validation and spatial patterns with different phase combinations of multidecadal oscillations

Proxy-based reconstructions are essential for investigating precipitation change in Asia on multidecadal to centennial timescales. Thus far, a total of four gridded precipitation/drought datasets for the past half millennium have been developed, including reconstructed Asian summer precipitation (RAP), May–September precipitation in China (IGGPRE), warm season precipitation for Asia (WSP), and Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). This study uses some independent evidence to evaluate and compare the four reconstructions and then examine the spatial patterns of precipitation under different phase combinations of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The results suggest that RAP and IGGPRE capture most variance of observations in eastern China, WSP performs better in central Asia and India, while MADA shows skill over Mongolia and the eastern Tibet Plateau. When proxies are evenly distributed in space, increasing the sample size contributes more to the explained variance than increasing the signal-to-noise ratio. In terms of the responses to the multidecadal oscillations, the spatial correlation coefficients are all negative between pairs of patterns, with only one of the oscillations residing in opposite phase. This means that all four reconstructed datasets capture the reverse spatial pattern when the phase of multidecadal oscillation changes. The WSP is the only dataset that shows positively correlated spatial patterns when the AMO and the PDO reverse together. The RAP and IGGPRE are more sensitive to the AMO than to the PDO, because the negative correlations caused by the AMO exhibit higher confidence levels. The spatial pattern in history is similar to that in the twentieth century when the PDO and AMO are both in positive phase, which indicates that the mechanism in this situation is stable over the long-term period.

Revisited Asian Monsoon Hydroclimate Response to Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractA multiproxy study of the climatic impact after the 1815 Tambora eruption in China found substantial discrepancies among the historical documents, proxy reconstructions, and model simulations. To understand whether the discrepancies are associated with regional‐scale heterogeneous hydroclimate responses or the specialty of an individual volcanic event, we revisit the Asian monsoon hydroclimate response to volcanic eruptions over the past five centuries using an independent warm season precipitation reconstruction. The composite results show a bipolar pattern of increased precipitation over the Yangtze‐Huaihe River valley and decreased precipitation over South China after the tropical eruptions, which agree with the instrumental observations of the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions. We could therefore reject the latter possibility and suggest that an overall drying response in the tree‐ring‐based Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas after tropical volcanic perturbations is an oversimplified conclusion. The hydroclimate responses suggest a combined influence of weakened East Asian and South Asian summer monsoons and an intensified East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream during its southward migration. Proxy reconstructions may be biased due to the sampling coverage and data sensitivities, and a combined analysis using different proxies is critical to form a balanced view of the important relationship between volcanic radiative perturbation and monsoon hydroclimate.

Tree-ring based annual precipitation reconstruction for the southern Three-River Headwaters region, China

Abstract Tree-ring width standard chronologies were created from Juniperus przewalskii Kom data collected in the southern Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region. Statistical analysis results showed high correlation between the first primary component (PC1) of the four chronologies and instrumental precipitation records during the annual September–August interval. Precipitation of the region was reconstructed for the past 461 years. It was verified that the reconstruction model was stable by split-sample calibration-verification statistics. The reconstruction series revealed 22 extremely dry years and 9 extremely wet years. Results showed relatively dry periods occurred during 1567–1597, 1604–1614, 1641–1656, 1684–1700, 1734–1755, 1817–1830, 1913–1932, 1953–1971, 1990–2005. Relatively wet periods occurred during 1615–1630, 1657–1683, 1701–1733, 1756–1786, 1798–1816, 1844–1855, 1864–1875, 1885–1912, 1933–1952, 1977–1989. Comparison with tree-ring based precipitation reconstructions, and chronologies from surrounding areas provided a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction, and correlated well with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) dataset in the public section of corresponding grids. The empirical mode decomposition analysis suggests the existence of significant periods with intervals of 2–5, 6–10, 11–18, and 28–60 years. This research contributes to a better understanding of historical variations in precipitation and will aid in future plans to address climate change of the TRH region.

A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand

AbstractCatchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation‐Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record—the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas—to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model and the linear regression benchmark have similar performance but the dynamic model is better at capturing prolonged droughts and pluvials. More importantly, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history—e.g., regime‐like behavior—thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree‐rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases.

The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

Climatic aftermath of the 1815 Tambora eruption in China

The 1815 eruption of the Tambora volcano led to the “Year without a Summer” and caused serious crop failure and famines in 1816 across Europe and North America. However, few reports are available on Tambora’s influence in China despite the region’s susceptibility to monsoonal volcanic perturbation. This study presents a systemic analysis of the climatic and related social responses to the Tambora perturbation in China, by using two independent lines of proxy records and projecting the responses on top of the impacts averaged over all tropical eruptions of the past millennium. Both the tree ring and Chinese documentary proxies show that Tambora induced a cold excursion, which caused severe frost damage, snow and ice accumulations that are uncommonly seen in southern China. Cold temperature tends to cause drought by suppressing evaporation and monsoonal circulation—a hydroclimate response that is evident in the tree-ring-based Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas but largely missing in a multiproxy precipitation reconstruction. Historical records of drought, flood, frost, and famine also show fairly mild responses outside southern China, which may be partially due to the insensitivity of documentary records to the Tambora-induced perturbation, or the cold background climate set up by the low solar insolation of the coincident Dalton Minimum and a preceding unknown eruption in 1809. The results presented here provide new insights into the spatial extent and characteristics of the Tambora perturbation, by providing a systematic evaluation of the climatic aftermath in China in parallel to that in Europe and North America. They also argue for the integral use of multiple proxies from different regions of the world to gain a better understanding of the climatic impacts for individual volcanic eruptions.

Divergence of tree-ring-based drought reconstruction between the individual sampling site and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas: an example from Guancen Mountain

To evaluate the applicability of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) to paleoclimate reconstructions in the east Asian summer monsoon region, we used a 194-year tree-ring width chronology from Guancen Mountain, Shanxi Province, China, to investigate its correlation with SPEI and scPDSI, respectively. The results indicated scPDSI as a robust drought index that could be reconstructed from tree-ring width on Guancen Mountain. Significant correlations with other hydroclimate-related series illustrated that our reconstruction captured common variations of hydroclimate in the surrounding areas. Additionally, our reconstruction showed significant correlation with nearby grid points of the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). However, while unprecedented drying trend existed during the past several decades in MADA, it was not represented in our reconstruction or in instrumental scPDSI/Dai-PDSI. This may imply that MADA overestimated drought severity during the past several decades in our study area; this overestimation was probably caused by an insufficient spatiotemporal distribution of the tree-ring network used by MADA. Therefore, more drought reconstructions based on individual sampling sites in eastern Asia are necessary to gain a thorough understanding of the Asian Monsoon climate variability.

A comparison of model simulations of Asian mega-droughts during the past millennium with proxy reconstructions

Abstract. Two PMIP3/CMIP5 climate model ensemble simulations of the past millennium have been analysed to identify the occurrence of Asian mega-droughts. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is used as the key metric for the data comparison of hydro-climatological conditions. The model results are compared with the proxy data of the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Our study shows that global circulation models (GCMs) are capable of capturing the majority of historically recorded Asian monsoon failures at the right time and with a comparable spatial distribution. The simulations indicate that El Niño-like events lead, in most cases, to these droughts. Both model simulations and proxy reconstructions point to fewer monsoon failures during the Little Ice Age. The results suggest an influential impact of volcanic forcing on the atmosphere–ocean interactions throughout the past millennium. During historic mega-droughts of the past millennium, the monsoon convection tends to assume a preferred regime described as a "break" event in Asian monsoon. This particular regime is coincident with a notable weakening in the Pacific trade winds and Somali Jet.

Tree-ring based evidence of the multi-decadal climatic oscillation during the past 200 years in north-central China

As the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region, north-central China (hereafter NCC) is highly sensitive to climate change. It is important to understand drought variability and the associated mechanisms in this region since precipitation changes have direct impacts on human society in this semiarid-arid area. In this study, a new tree ring-width based drought reconstruction (AD 1804–2010) was established in the Songmingyan Nature Reserve, which lies in NCC. This reconstruction illustrates the severe drought periods occurring in the 1860s, 1928–1932 and 1991–2000, with recurring drought intervals being about 60 years. The first principal component of the five chronologies from NCC shows strongly coherent drought variability with the other single-site records and can thus be used as an indicator of regional moisture variations. Combining the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (hereafter MADA) dataset and the dry-wet index (hereafter DWI) dataset from eastern China, the spatial distribution of moisture variability for three selected drought events is mapped. It is found that northern China and Mongolia experienced dry conditions during the three severe drought periods, whereas wet conditions prevailed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (hereafter PDO) might have been one of the possible causes responsible for multi-decadal drought variability over NCC, with the PDO warm phases being associated with drought conditions and the cold phases corresponding to wet conditions over NCC.

A kernel spatial density estimation allowing for the analysis of spatial clustering. Application to Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas data

A nonparametric density estimate that incorporates spatial dependency has not been studied in the literature. In this article, we propose a new spatial density estimator that depends on two kernels: one controls the distance between observations while the other controls the spatial dependence structure. The uniform almost sure convergence of the density estimate is established with the rate of convergence. The consistency of the mode of this kernel density is also studied. Then a spatial hierarchical unsupervised clustering algorithm based on the mode estimate is presented. Some simulations as well as an application to the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas data illustrate the efficiency of our algorithm, and a comparison of the spatial structures of these data detected by the density estimate and clustering algorithm are done.

Proxy evidence for China's monsoon precipitation response to volcanic aerosols over the past seven centuries

AbstractThe effect of volcanic aerosols on China's monsoon precipitation over the past 700 years has been studied using two independently compiled histories of volcanism combined with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. For both reconstructions, four categories of eruptions are distinguished based on the character of their Northern Hemisphere (NH) injection; then Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) with a 10,000 Monte Carlo resampling procedure is undertaken for each category and also each individual grid. Results show a statistically significant (at 90% confidence level) drying trend over mainland China from year 1 to year 4 after the eruptions, and the more sulfate aerosol that is injected into the NH stratosphere, the more severe this drying trend. In comparison, a minor wetting trend is observed in the years following Southern Hemisphere‐only injections. Results from spatial distribution of the SEA show (1) a southward movement of the significant dry areas in eastern China from year 0 to year 2 after volcanic perturbations that are either equal to or double the size of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption (15 T sulfate aerosols in NH) and (2) northeast and northwest China experienced substantial droughts in years 2 to 5. These results are in good agreement with a SEA analysis of the Chinese Historical Drought Disaster Index compiled from historical meteorological records. Our findings illustrate the important role stratospheric aerosols have played in altering China's precipitation during the summer monsoon season and can shed new light on the possible effects that stratospheric geoengineering may have on China's precipitation.

Tree‐ring δ18O evidence for the drought history of eastern Tianshan Mountains, northwest China since 1700 AD

ABSTRACTWe developed an annual tree‐ring δ18O chronology from Larix sibirica in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China. Climatic response revealed that tree‐ring δ18O was significantly positively correlated with the mean and maximum July–August temperatures, whereas the July precipitation and relative humidity were significantly negatively correlated with tree‐ring δ18O. The self‐calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc_PDSI) in July–August was significantly correlated with the tree‐ring δ18O, which reflects the comprehensive effects of the three parameters on tree‐ring δ18O fractionation. We established a robust reconstruction of July–August sc_PDSI that accounted for 38.4% of the total variance of sc_PDSI from 1959 to 2008. The sc_PDSI reconstruction yields new insights on past drought that were not previously realized in other PDSI reconstructions (e.g. Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas) from the region. The reconstruction revealed several wet and dry periods but no trend towards a wetter climate in the eastern Tianshan Mountains during the last two decades. It also detected synergistic effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on regional moisture conditions as a result of teleconnections between tropical oceans and mid‐latitude circulation patterns.

El Niño phases embedded in Asian and North American drought reconstructions

The amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies substantially at each phase of its evolution, affecting the timing and patterns of atmospheric teleconnections around the globe. Instrumental records are too short to capture the full behavior of ENSO variability. Here we use the well-validated Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) and North America Drought Atlas (NADA) for the past 700 years, and show that tree-ring records from different regions represent tropical sea surface temperature (SST) conditions at various phases of ENSO. Three modes of tree-ring based summer drought variability are found to be correlated with ENSO: summer droughts over the Maritime Continent and Southwest North America (NA), and a dipole mode between Central and South Asia. A lagged correlation analysis is performed to determine the time when precipitation and temperature anomaly imprints on summer droughts as recorded in tree-rings. Drought anomalies in the Maritime Continent and Southwest NA represent ENSO at the developing and peak phases respectively, while those over Central/South Asia are associated with tropical-wide SST anomalies (including the Indian Ocean) at the decay phase of ENSO. Thus proxy records from different regions can provide valuable information on long-term behavior of ENSO at different phases.

Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625–1644 and 1975–1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975–1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625–1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific. Our results provide a benchmark for comparing and validating paleo-simulations from general circulation model of the variability of the Asian summer monsoon at decadal to centennial timescales.

Documentary reconstruction of monsoon rainfall variability over western India, 1781–1860

Investigations into the climatic forcings that affect the long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon are constrained by a lack of reliable rainfall data prior to the late nineteenth century. Extensive qualitative and quantitative meteorological information for the pre-instrumental period exists within historical documents, although these materials have been largely unexplored. This paper presents the first reconstruction of monsoon variability using documentary sources, focussing on western India for the period 1781–1860. Three separate reconstructions are generated, for (1) Mumbai, (2) Pune and (3) the area of Gujarat bordering the Gulf of Khambat. A composite chronology is then produced from the three reconstructions, termed the Western India Monsoon Rainfall reconstruction (WIMR). The WIMR exhibits four periods of generally deficient monsoon rainfall (1780–1785, 1799–1806, 1830–1838 and 1845–1857) and three of above-normal rainfall (1788–1794, 1813–1828 and 1839–1844). The WIMR shows good correspondence with a dendroclimatic drought reconstruction for Kerala, although agreement with the western Indian portion of the tree-ring derived Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas is less strong. The reconstruction is used to examine the long-term relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon rainfall over western India. This exhibits peaks and troughs in correlation over time, suggesting a regular long-term fluctuation. This may be an internal oscillation in the ENSO-monsoon system or may be related to volcanic aerosol forcings. Further reconstructions of monsoon rainfall are necessary to validate this. The study highlights uncertainties in existing published rainfall records for 1817–1846 for western India.

Palaeoclimatological perspective on river basin hydrometeorology: case of the Mekong Basin

Abstract. Globally, there have been many extreme weather events in recent decades. A challenge has been to determine whether these extreme weather events have increased in number and intensity compared to the past. This challenge is made more difficult due to the lack of long-term instrumental data, particularly in terms of river discharge, in many regions including Southeast Asia. Thus our main aim in this paper is to develop a river basin scale approach for assessing interannual hydrometeorological and discharge variability on long, palaeological, time scales. For the development of the basin-wide approach, we used the Mekong River basin as a case study area, although the approach is also intended to be applicable to other basins. Firstly, we derived a basin-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Secondly, we compared the basin-wide PDSI with measured discharge to validate our approach. Thirdly, we used basin-wide PDSI to analyse the hydrometeorology and discharge of the case study area over the study period of 1300–2005. For the discharge-MADA comparison and hydrometeorological analyses, we used methods such as linear correlations, smoothing, moving window variances, Levene type tests for variances, and wavelet analyses. We found that the developed basin-wide approach based on MADA can be used for assessing long-term average conditions and interannual variability for river basin hydrometeorology and discharge. It provides a tool for studying interannual discharge variability on a palaeological time scale, and therefore the approach contributes to a better understanding of discharge variability during the most recent decades. Our case study revealed that the Mekong has experienced exceptional levels of interannual variability during the post-1950 period, which could not be observed in any other part of the study period. The increased variability was found to be at least partly associated with increased El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity.

Spatial patterns of moisture variations across the Tibetan Plateau during the past 700 years and their relationship with Atmospheric Oscillation modes

ABSTRACTSpatial and temporal variations in moisture across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the years 1300–2005 were investigated using 50 gridded Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) series extracted from the newly developed Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). The first four spatial patterns of moisture variations were identified by empirical orthogonal function analysis. They represent coherent moisture variations on the northern, southern, northwestern and southeastern TP, respectively. Similar spatial patterns were seen for the reconstructed and observational PDSI series. Comparisons between the first four principal components (PCs) of 50 MADA‐PDSI and Dai‐PDSI series confirmed that the PCs based on the MADA‐PDSI are reasonable proxies for regional moisture variations over the TP during the past 700 years. During the last century, wetness has generally increased on the northern and southern TP, which is in accord with the simulation of the global monsoon rainfall and paleoclimate records from Monsoonal Asia. The results of spatial correlation analysis indicated that the North Atlantic Oscillation is a primary cause of the contrasting moisture conditions between the northern and southern TP on a decadal time scale. Decadal moisture variations are also closely associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation which contributes to the difference in moisture conditions between the eastern and western TP. Moreover, interannual moisture variations over the TP were found to be closely linked to the El Niño southern oscillation. Large‐scale dryness and wetness are possibly caused by the joint effects of each of these three atmospheric oscillation modes. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

Comparison of the dryness/wetness index in China with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas

It is not clear how the frequency and amplitude of droughts have varied over the past 500 years in China, as the instrumental record is too short to identify centennial-scale trends. While the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) provides some insights into past drought patterns, its accuracy in eastern China remains uncertain. A comparison of the MADA and Chinese historical documents indicates that the MADA alone cannot effectively represent dryness and wetness in eastern China, so it is not appropriate to use the MADA in this region.