Monopole Pattern Research Articles

Spatio-temporal changes in atmospheric aridity over the arid region of Central Asia during 1979–2019

The arid region of Central Asia (CA) is the largest non-zonal arid region in the world. It has experienced significant changes in climate and hydrological cycle systems owing to global warming, which has posed serious impacts on the water resources and ecological environment in this region. Although the atmospheric water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) can directly reflect the atmospheric moisture condition, studies on the change of atmospheric moisture deficit in CA are scarce. Thus, we investigated the changes in VPD in the arid region of CA from the perspective of atmospheric aridity based on the CRU TS4.04 and ERA5 data. Our results showed that the VPD in more than 95 % of grids in the arid region had a significantly increasing trend during 1979–2019. Seasonally, VPD trends were increasing in spring, summer, and autumn but decreasing in winter. The changes in saturated water vapor pressure and actual water vapor pressure determined the VPD changes. The saturated water vapor pressure showed a clearly upward trend, whereas the actual water vapor pressure did not increase at the same rate, resulting in the increase of VPD. The first four leading modes revealed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis represented the patterns by explaining 81.4 % of the total variance. The positive phase of EOF1 was characterized by a monopole pattern, and this mode continued to increase. Contrastingly, EOF2 (and EOF3) showed dipole patterns over east–west CA (and north–south CA), with a mainly interannual variability. Due to the combined effect of increasing temperatures and decreasing relative humidity, the VPD has been intensifying since the mid-to-late 1990 s in CA, and the atmosphere has become significantly drier. These research results can deepen the scientific understanding of global warming impacts on atmospheric moisture and provides a reference for revealing the VPD changes and their impacts on the climate system and ecosystem in arid regions. Our results highlight that the impacts of VPD change should be adequately considered in environmental management and policy-making processes in Central Asia.

Dominant modes of interannual variability in spring compound dry and hot events over Northern Asia and the possible mechanisms

In this study, spatial and temporal variations of spring compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) over northern Asia (NA) during 1950–2020 and the related possible mechanisms are investigated on the interannual timescale. The standardized compound event indicator (SCEI) is used to represent compound dry and hot conditions over NA, which is validated by the observed summer case of CDHEs over western Russia in 2010. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) mode of the SCEI over NA presents a monopole pattern, while the EOF2 mode shows an east-west dipole pattern. Possible mechanism analysis indicates that the CDHEs tend to be modulated by local high-pressure anomalies, accompanied by reduced cloud cover and more solar radiation. The high-pressure anomalies can lead to warm temperature and water vapor divergence, which synergistically contributes to the occurrence of CDHEs. Further analysis shows that the EOF1 mode is jointly affected by the Scandinavian (SCAND) pattern and the Arctic Oscillation (AO); while the EOF2 mode is influenced by the Atlantic-Eurasian (AEA) teleconnection. Moreover, the North Atlantic tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) can influence the EOF1 mode through changing the AO. And the diagonal tripolar SST pattern over the North Atlantic affects the EOF2 mode via altering the AEA pattern. The influence of the SST patterns is further confirmed by numerical experiments using the Community Atmospheric Model version CAM-5.3.

Subseasonal variability of sea level pressure and its influence on snowpack over mid-high-latitude Eurasia during boreal winter

The atmospheric circulation significantly influences the snowpack over mid-high-latitude Eurasia. This study examines the characteristics of the leading subseasonal variability mode of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) with 20-80-day period and its relationship with snowpack over mid-high-latitude Eurasia, using the fifth generation of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) data and different snowpack datasets. The SLP leading mode, characterized by a monopole pattern with a strong surface anomalous high centered near the Ural Mountains, exhibits a barotropic structure and extends from the surface to the tropopause. Above SLP and geopotential height anomalies propagate southeastward from the Barents-Kara Sea to East Asia. This leading SLP mode contributes to surface air temperature (SAT) and snowfall circulation anomalies over mid-high-latitude Eurasia. The latter two both directly influence on snowpack anomalies in situ. Over high latitude region, snowfall circulation anomaly is the dominant factor to control the snow depth anomaly. Over middle latitude region, both SAT and snowfall circulation anomalies lead to the snowpack anomaly. Furthermore, the response of snow depth to the leading subseaonal SLP mode occurs 2–5 days earlier than the response of snow cover to the same mode over middle latitude region. In addition, it is suggested that the Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) and Polar/Eurasia (PEU) pattern may contribute to the development of the leading SLP mode and subsequently influence snowpack anomalies.

Evaporation Duct Anomalies Caused by Mesoscale Eddies in the Kuroshio Extension

AbstractEvaporation duct anomalies are always present above various oceanic processes, and their response to ubiquitous mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region is quantitatively analyzed for the first time in this study using a synthetic analysis method based on reanalysis data sets and eddy trajectory data sets. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of evaporation duct anomalies is characterized by a monopole pattern, mainly modulated by the amplitude of anticyclonic eddies (AEs) and by the radius of cyclonic eddies (CEs). For AEs, the coupling strength is 0.7 m (2.9 M) per meter increase in amplitude, while for CEs, the coupling strength is 0.2 m (0.6 M) per 100 km increase in radius for the average evaporation duct height anomalies (evaporation duct strength anomalies) within the radius range. The modulation of evaporation duct anomalies by eddies is further examined.

Trend and interannual variability of summer marine heatwaves in the tropical Indian ocean: Patterns, mixed layer heat budget, and seasonal prediction

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme sea surface temperature (SST) events in all ocean basins, with far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems and socio-economy. The leading patterns, trend, and interannual variability of summer MHWs in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are investigated in this study. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of frequency of MHWs exhibits a monopole pattern over the entire basin. This mode is highly associated with the concurrent Indian Ocean Basin warming, indicating a remarkable trend over the past four decades. The linear trend in MHW properties largely relates to increased summer Indian Ocean mean SST. The second EOF mode exhibits a zonal dipole with the MHW numbers increasing in the west and decreasing in the east. On the interannual timescale, the first two EOF modes are remotely affected by antecedent and concurrent El Niño events, respectively. The ocean mixed layer budget is utilized for examining the formation of different summer MHW patterns. During the preceding spring, the surface heat flux is important for the development of MHWs, while the ocean advections play a secondary role in the South Indian Ocean for the MHW monopole. Once the SST anomaly rises in summer, the ocean advections play a dominant role in maintaining the SST. Last, we assess the prediction skill of summer TIO MHWs by performing a bilinear seasonal statistical prediction model. Our results suggest the frequency of summer MHWs in the TIO could be predicted one season in advance. This study has great implications for understanding and predicting ocean extreme events in the TIO.

The monthly evolution of precipitation and warm conveyor belts during the central southwest Asia wet season

Abstract. Understanding the nature of precipitation over central southwest Asia (CSWA), a data-sparse, semi-arid region, is important given its relation to agricultural productivity and the likelihood of hazards such as flooding. The present study considers how daily precipitation and local vertical motion – represented by warm conveyor belts (WCBs) – evolve from November to April over CSWA. First we compare several precipitation datasets, revealing that the seasonality of daily precipitation is consistent across estimates that incorporate satellite information, while total accumulation amounts differ substantially. A common feature across datasets is that the majority of precipitation occurs on the few days when area-averaged accumulation exceeds 4 mm, which are most frequent in February and March. The circulation pattern associated with heavy (< 4 mm d−1) precipitation days evolves within the wet season from a southwest–northeast tilted couplet of circulation anomalies in January and February to a neutrally tilted monopole pattern in April. El Niño conditions are associated with more heavy precipitation days than La Niña conditions, with both enhanced WCB frequency and moisture transport observed during the former. An exception to this is found in January, when precipitation, WCB frequency, and moisture do not increase, despite a similar increase in surface cyclones to other months, suggesting that precipitation changes cannot always be inferred from cyclone frequency changes. Nonetheless, our results generally support prior connections made between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal-to-interannual precipitation anomalies and extend this connection to one between the slowly evolving ENSO influence and transient and local vertical motion represented by WCBs.

Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation of Surface Sensible Heating over the Central-Eastern Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship with Spring Rainfall in China

Abstract This study examines the characteristics and phase evolution of the quasi-biweekly oscillation of surface sensible heating (SH) over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau (CETP) during spring. The mechanism connecting CETP SH to spring rainfall in China on the quasi-biweekly time scale is further investigated. Results show that the dominant mode of quasi-biweekly CETP SH presents a monopole pattern, in which the peak leads the maximum of the quasi-biweekly rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) and South China by approximately 5 and 7 days, respectively. As an upper-level Rossby wave train propagates eastward, an anomalous center of convergence moves to the CETP, which leads to a strong downdraft and reduced cloud cover. The resultant elevated shortwave radiation input and drier soil conditions are favorable for the CETP SH quasi-biweekly oscillation to enter a positive phase. When reaching its peak, the CETP SH efficiently heats the lower atmosphere, resulting in a local updraft. Due to the “SH-driven air pump” effect, abundant water vapor is transported from the oceans to China. A lower-layer southerly anomaly on the east side of the TP develops into an anomalous cyclonic circulation via the effect of topographic friction, which leads to the expansion of the positive potential vorticity anomaly and the maximum of the quasi-biweekly rainfall in the MLYR. Further southeastward propagation of the wave train leads to a shift in the rainfall anomaly center to South China. These findings suggest that the CETP monopole SH warming could be a good indicator for predicting intraseasonal variations in spring rainfall over China.

Interannual Variations in the Intraseasonal Variability of Spring Precipitation over Southern China and the Possible Mechanisms

Abstract This study first investigates the interannual variations in spring precipitation intraseasonal variability over southern China (SC). The results show that SC spring precipitation exhibits distinct intraseasonal variations with a period of 7–25 days. The first mode of 7–25-day precipitation intraseasonal variability (PIV) displays a monopole pattern over SC, and the PIV magnitude is largely determined by the upward motion intensity during intraseasonal precipitation events. Further analysis suggests that two atmospheric wave trains are observed during intraseasonal precipitation events, which propagate eastward from the North Atlantic along the northern and southern paths. In strong PIV years, the two wave trains can propagate to East Asia and show coordinated influences. The resultant low pressure to the west of SC causes strong upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing strong zonal vorticity and meridional temperature advection. In weak PIV years, the southern wave train can only propagate to the Bay of Bengal; therefore, the northern wave train plays a major role. The resultant low pressure is now over the upper to middle reaches of the Yangtze River, which causes relatively weak upward motion and PIV over SC by bringing weak meridional vorticity and temperature advection. Further analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature (SST) condition over the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea is essential for southern wave train propagation. The warming SST over the regions can intensify westerlies to its north and consequently favors the propagation of the southern wave train to SC, eventually contributing to strong PIV over SC.

Interdecadal Changes in the Dominant Modes of Spring Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau around the Early 1990s

Abstract The current work investigated the interdecadal changes in the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) pattern of the interannual variation in spring [March–May (MAM)] snow-cover extent (SCE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) (SSC_TP). The leading EOF pattern of the SSC_TP is transformed from an east to west dipole pattern during the period 1970–89 (P1) to a monopole structure during the period 1991–2020 (P2). Observational analysis shows that during P1, the negative Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) (−AAO) is associated with low-level cross-equator southeasterly anomalies across the Bay of Bengal and transports more water vapor to the eastern TP. Moreover, at a high level, anomalous northerly winds accompanied by an anomalous sinking motion dominate the western TP, favoring an east-wet–west-dry dipole pattern of SSC_TP. Further analysis shows that the −AAO induces anomalous divergence over the Antarctic, which contributes to the formation of a Rossby wave source (RWS). This RWS is related to a northeastward-propagating atmospheric wave train that crosses the equator and contributes to the SSC_TP variation during P1. In contrast, in P2, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is associated with a barotropic atmospheric wave train originating from southern Greenland, moving across the North Atlantic Ocean and North Africa and reaching the TP. This wave train results in significant positive vorticity and ascending airflow above the TP and favors a monopole pattern of the SSC_TP. Further analysis shows that the AO can induce divergence anomalies over southeastern Greenland and RWS anomalies there. This RWS induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates eastward and reaches the TP during P2. The above mechanisms have been supported by the results of numerical experiments performed using the linear baroclinic model.

The relationship between interannual variability of winter surface solar radiation over the Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands and the circumglobal teleconnection

Using ERA5 reanalysis data, this study reveals the relationship between variations of winter surface solar radiation (SSR) over the Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands (SEALLH) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The results indicate that the winter SSR shows significant interannual variability with a monopole pattern over the SEALLH. The winter CGT significantly modifies the interannual variability of the simultaneous SSR over the SEALLH. When the CGT is in its positive phase, a wave train appears over the central-eastern Mediterranean, Arabian Peninsula, Indian Peninsula, and East Asia with anomalous “northerly, southerly, northerly, southerly” nondivergent meridional wind. The associated southerly wind anomalies around the SEALLH favor greater transport of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal that converges over the SEALLH. The consequent increase of cloud cover in the lower–middle troposphere and aerosol optical depth (AOD) reduce the winter SSR over the SEALLH. When the CGT is in its negative phase, the anomalous northerly wind with anomalous divergence increases the winter SSR over the SEALLH by decreasing both cloud cover in the lower–middle troposphere and the AOD.

Extreme cold wave in early November 2021 in China and the influences from the meridional pressure gradient over East Asia

In early November 2021, China experienced its second strongest cold wave event during 1981–2021. Although the Siberian high is considered the main factor influencing cold wave events in East Asia, it was not extremely strong from 4 to November 9, 2021. The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between the sea level pressure and the daily temperature anomalies shows a monopole pattern, with a notable negative centre in the southern part of the Siberian high monitoring domain. However, the correlation between the sea level pressure and temperature drop presents a typical dipole pattern, with a distinct negative centre in the northern monitoring domain and a positive centre in southern East Asia. During the November 2021 super cold wave process, the sea level pressure anomalies display a dipole pattern with a higher centre in the north and a lower centre in the south owing to the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The meridional pressure gradient index clearly reveals the non-negligible effect of subtropical low-pressure on this super cold wave process, indicating its possibly essential supplementary role in enhancing this process. The above findings provide a new understanding of its mechanism and long-range forecasts.

Interdecadal variation in atmospheric water vapour content over East Asia during winter and the relationship with autumn Arctic sea ice

AbstractThis study focused on the interdecadal variability in water vapour content (WVC) over East Asia during winter and its associated mechanisms. The interdecadal variation in the WVC over East Asia during winter was investigated using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method. The leading mode (EOF1, explained variance is 52.7%) of interdecadal variability in the WVC, which explains most of the interdecadal variation, exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over East Asia. The mechanisms associated with the interdecadal variability in winter WVC over East Asia were further investigated, and it was found that the interdecadal variability in winter WVC over East Asia is modulated by three water vapour transport (WVT) branches from the eastern, western, and southern boundaries of East Asia that are associated with Eurasian winter circulation. Further analyses revealed that increased sea ice concentration over the Barents‐Kara Sea (SIC‐BKS) in October–November (ON) serves as the source of wave activity flux and stimulates a stationary wave train along the Eurasian continent to change the downstream atmospheric circulation. As a response, an abnormal cyclone, an abnormal anticyclone, and an abnormal cyclone are triggered over western Siberia, the northern area of East Asia, and the southern area of East Asia, which are together favourable for WVC sufficiency over East Asia. Sensitivity experiments by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) using sea ice forcing in the Barents Sea yield similar results to the observed data, further confirming our conclusion. Therefore, the SIC‐BKS in ON may be an important potential predictor for the interdecadal variability in winter WVC over East Asia.

Dominant patterns of winter surface air temperature over Central Asia and their connection with atmospheric circulation

The dominant patterns of the winter (December–February) surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs) over Central Asia (CA) are investigated in this study. The first two leading modes revealed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis represent the patterns by explaining 74% of the total variance. The positive phase of EOF1 is characterized by a monopole pattern, corresponding to cold SATAs over CA, while the positive phase of EOF2 shows a meridional dipole pattern with warm and cold SATAs over northern and southern CA. EOF1 is mainly modulated by the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the troposphere, and the negative AO phase may be caused by the downward propagation of the precursory anomalies of the stratospheric polar vortex. EOF2 is mainly influenced by the Ural blocking pattern and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The SATAs associated with EOF2 can be attributed to a dipole-like pattern of geopotential height anomalies over CA. The dipole-like pattern is mainly caused by the Ural blocking pattern, and the NAO can also contribute to the northern part of the dipole.摘要本文利用经验正交函数分解方法 (Empirical orthogonal function, EOF) , 针对1979–2019年冬季 (12月–2月) 中亚地区地面气温异常进行了研究. 结果表明, 中亚地区冬季地面气温异常的前两个EOF模态解释方差总占比可达74%. 其中, 第一模态 (EOF1) 正位相为一致型变化, 对应中亚地区气温冷异常; 第二模态 (EOF2) 正位相则为南北偶极型变化, 对应于中亚地区南冷北暖型气温异常. EOF1可能受到冬季北极涛动 (Arctic Oscillation, AO) 负位相的调制, 而AO的负位相则可能来自于前期平流层极涡正位势高度异常下传. EOF2则可能受到乌拉尔山阻塞及冬季北大西洋涛动 (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) 的共同调制. 乌拉尔山阻塞可引起中亚区域南北偶极型气温异常, 而冬季NAO可对该偶极型气温异常的北侧产生贡献.

The quasi-biweekly oscillation of eastern China PM2.5 in response to different Rossby wave trains over the Eurasian continent

This study investigates the wintertime quasi-biweekly oscillation characteristic of PM2.5 in eastern China and its relationship with Rossby wave trains propagating over the Eurasian continent. The Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis extracts the three leading modes of PM2.5, including one monopole pattern (Mcon), a north-south dipole pattern (Msn), and a west-east dipole pattern (Mew). The three modes exhibit distinct quasi-biweekly oscillation features (QBWO) under the coupling effects of two Rossby wave trains within the polar front jet and the subtropical westerly jet. The quasi-biweekly evolutions of the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU) and Circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CGT) are responsible for the propagation of the two wave trains. The QBWO typical combination cases of the two wave trains are the decay of the EU negative phase and development of the CGT negative phase for Mcon, the development of the EU negative phase and decay of the CGT positive phase for Msn, and the decay of the EU negative phase and development of the CGT positive phase for Mew. A consistent change in surface southerly wind anomalies forms in the north and south when the decay of the EU negative phase works cooperatively with the development of the CGT negative phase, resulting in the PM2.5 monopole pattern (Mcon). The combination case with the development of the EU negative phase and decay of the CGT positive phase favors strong stratification stability in the north and vigorous vertical convection in the south, causing opposing north-south changes in pollutants (Msn). When the decay of the EU negative phase couples with development of the CGT positive phase, surface southerly wind anomalies prevail in the Fenwei Plain, and surface northeasterly wind anomalies from the sea trigger convection in the Yellow River Basin and Huaihe River Basin, forming opposing west-east changes in PM2.5 (Mew).

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

Atmospheric water vapor content (WVC) is a critical factor for East Asian winter precipitation. This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and the underlying mechanisms. Based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method, the leading mode (EOF1, R2=28.9%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China; the second mode (EOF2, R2=24.3%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern China. EOF1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport (WVT) branches over northeastern China and eastern China, which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea (SIC-KSBS) area in the preceding October-November (ON). EOF2 is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China, which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. This circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2 in winter WVC, thus may providing a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.

Analysis of rainfall variability for the October to December over Tanzania on different timescales during 1951–2015

AbstractThis study has utilized spectral analysis to ascertain the nature of decadal rainfall variability, while correlation, singular value decomposition (SVD), and composite analyses were employed to explore and understand the possible associated mechanisms. Inferences were drawn to the interannual timescales. The spectrum analysis of October to December (OND) rainfall revealed dominant signals at 2.4, 2.9, and 5.0, and a band near 16–25 years. These cyclicities suggest that dominant drivers of Tanzania rainfall anomalies evolve on interannual and decadal timescales. Interannual variations in Tanzania rainfall are mostly linked to the Indian and Pacific oceans. Significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian and Pacific oceans included those associated with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillations (ENSO), respectively and are linked to changes in the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the western Indian Ocean. The observed circulation variations are most likely to influence Tanzania rainfall. In contrast, wet and dry decades are mostly linked to the Indian and Atlantic oceans. The Indian ocean provides stronger teleconnections with Tanzania rainfall at decadal timescales, consistent with interannual timescales teleconnections. Notably, the ‘dipole’ like forcing observed at interannual timescales is less coherent at decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. As such, the Indian Ocean displayed a coherent monopole pattern in decadal SST. As a result of these differences, the location of the western Indian ocean centre of convection activities observed at interannual timescales has shifted to around the central Indian Ocean at decadal timescales. Wet decades in Tanzania rainfall are associated with the condition of enhanced convection and increase moisture content centred over the central Indian Ocean. This convective condition was observed to spread to a large area of the Indian Ocean and the African continent, including the study area.

Synthesis approach to design a compact printed monopole filtenna for 2.4 GHz Wi‐Fi application

This communication presents a compact low cost filtenna (35 mm × 30 mm) operating in 2.31 to 2.49 GHz spectrum for possible applications pertaining to 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi standards 802.11b, 802.11g, and 802.11n. Initially, two microstrip square open loop resonators are designed to serve as band-pass filters with resonant frequency of 2.4 GHz. Adapting the synthesis approach, the second resonator is replaced by inverted L-shaped monopole antenna designed at 2.4 GHz. The antenna is integrated to filter through coupled line admittance inverter to form a compact module with near zero insertion loss within the proposed operating frequency band, filtenna possess uniform omnidirectional radiation pattern in H-plane and monopole pattern in E-plane, steep skirt at both edges, 7.5% fractional bandwidth, good return loss and low cross polarization characteristics. The simulated design is validated by measurements of parameters of prototype fabricated on FR4 substrate, slight acceptable discrepancy is experienced which can be attributed to fabrication tolerances and variation in material characteristics.

Understanding the variability of the rainfall dipole in West Africa using the EC-Earth last millennium simulation

There is a well-known mode of rainfall variability associating opposite hydrological conditions over the Sahel region and the Gulf of Guinea, forming a dipole pattern. Previous meteorological observations show that the dipole pattern varies at interannual timescales. Using an EC-Earth climate model simulation for last millennium (850–1850 CE), we investigate the rainfall variability in West Africa over longer timescales. The 1000-year-long simulation data show that this rainfall dipole presents at decadal to multidecadal and centennial variability and long-term trend. Using the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we identified that the rainfall dipole present in the first SVD mode with 60% explained variance and associated with the variabilities in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). The second SVD mode shows a monopole rainfall variability pattern centred over the Sahel, associated with the extra-tropical Atlantic SST variability. We conclude that the rainfall dipole-like pattern is a natural variability mode originated from the local ocean–atmosphere-land coupling in the tropical Atlantic basin. The warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean favour an anomalous low pressure at the tropics. This low pressure weakens the meridional pressure gradient between the Saharan Heat Low and the tropical Atlantic. It leads to anomalous northeasterly, reduces the southwesterly moisture flux into the Sahel and confines the Gulf of Guinea's moisture convergence. The influence from extra-tropical climate variability, such as Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, tends to modify the rainfall dipole pattern to a monopole pattern from the Gulf of Guinea to Sahara through influencing the Sahara heat low. External forcing—such as orbital forcing, solar radiation, volcanic and land-use—can amplify/dampen the dipole mode through thermal forcing and atmosphere dynamical feedback.

The inter-annual variations of the significant wave height in the Western North Pacific and South China Sea region

The spatio-temporal variations of the significant wave height (SWH) in the Western North Pacific and South China Sea (WNP-SCS) region, as well as their driving mechanisms, are investigated based on the long-term (1981–2014) simulation by a coupled ocean–atmosphere model and a WAVEWATCH III model. The Empirical Orthogonal Function modes of SWH anomalies show different patterns in the cold and warm seasons. In winter, the first mode (explaining 40.63% of the variance) shows a monopole pattern with large loadings lying in SCS and the WNP to the east of the Philippine Islands, which is primarily associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. The second mode (explaining 19.62% of the variance) shows a dipole pattern with negative loadings in the northeastern SCS and positive loadings to the east of Japan, which is prominently connected with the intensity variation and longitudinal shift of Aleutian Low on decadal time scales. In summer, the first leading mode (explaining 73.47% of the variance) presents large loadings located mainly in the WNP region between 10° N and 30° N and secondarily in the central SCS, which is associated with the ENSO-affected tropical cyclone activities and South China Sea summer monsoon, respectively.

Mechanisms associated with September to November (SON) rainfall over Uganda during the recent decades

This study revisits teleconnections associated with the anomalous events of September to November (SON) rainfall over Uganda during 1981-2019, owing to the recent intensification of extreme events. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Composite and Correlation analysis are employed to examine the variability of SON rainfall over the study domain and associated circulations anomalies. The first EOF mode (dominant mode) displays a positive monopole pattern and explains 67.2% of the variance. The results revealed that SON rainfall is largely influenced by a Walker circulation mode over the Indian Ocean, whereby, wet events are associated with an ascending limb of the Walker circulation on the western part of the Indian Ocean characterized by convergence at low levels and divergence at upper level. The study showed that SON rainfall is positively (negatively) correlated with Indian Ocean (Atlantic Ocean) sea surface temperatures (SST). Furthermore, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events have impact on SON rainfall with strong positive correlation, whereas Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) revealed negative correlation. The results also reveal that there is a lag in ENSO and IOD episodes during wet/dry events over the region. ENSO and IOD also tend to extend the rainfall season of SON and thus study of extreme events may not be well captured by studies focusing on SON. Future studies might consider the season of October to December or December to February. These phenomena need to be closely monitored and considered when making seasonal forecasts.