Money Market Rates Research Articles

Impact of the Petroleum Tax System in Norway on the evolution of money market and bond yields. Considerations from the “atypical” year 2022

We call the year 2022 as “atypical” for the Norwegian budget, given the record revenue that was achieved due to increases in oil and gas prices. After the Russian invasion in Ukraine in 2022, and the subsequent oil cut deliveries from Russia, Norway became Europe's largest supplier of natural gas. The event lead to Norway generating the highest oil and gas tax revenue ever recorded by the Scandinavian government, with spill-over effects on the economy as a whole and on the money market liquidity and hence interest rates in particular.Given the benefit that the Scandinavian state ended up with, as a result of the war in Ukraine, some researchers even argue about its so-called status of “war profiteer”.Also, the Norwegian Krone (NOK) significantly benefited from the demand of local currency from the oil and gas companies, especially in October 2022, when the second yearly tax installment was due. Money market rates skyrocketed in that particular period, as the structural liquidity decreased, signaling the level of oil and gas taxes (and hence the market demand for NOK to pay them) was markedly beyond Norges Bank estimations.

How to conduct monetary policies. The ECB in the past, present and future

We study the evolving operating procedures used by the ECB since its creation. During the period up to 2015, bank reserves were scarce and the ECB, like other central banks, used a corridor system in which the money market rate could fluctuate within the bounds set by the lending and the deposit rates. With the start of Quantitative Easing (QE) the operating procedure evolved into a regime of reserve abundance. This regime has become problematic since the inflation surge forced the central banks to raise the policy rate. The result has been a massive transfer of central banks’ profits (and more) to the banks. We propose a two-tier system of reserve requirements that would only remunerate the reserves in excess of the minimum required. This would drastically reduce the giveaways to banks, allow the central banks to maintain their current operating procedures and make monetary policies more effective in fighting inflation.This paper was presented at the ECB@25 Symposium at Erasmus University, Rotterdam on 16th January 2024. We are grateful to Mary Pieterse-Bloem, Sylvester Eijffinger, Casper de Vries, Charles Goodhart and other participants in the Symposium for comments and suggestions. We also profited from comments and suggestions of an anonymous referee.Previous versions of this paper (De Grauwe and Ji, 2023a, 2023b) profited from comments by Ignazio Angeloni, Peter Bofinger, Robert Holzmann, Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser, Karel Lannoo, Vivien Lévy-Garboua, Anna Lozmann, David Marsh, Wim Moesen, Joachim Nagel, Theo Peeters, Stefan Schmitz, Miklos Vari, and by participants in seminars and presentations at the London School of Economics, King’s College (London), the Bundesbank, the Central Bank of Luxembourg, OMFIF, Sciences Po (Paris), the Austrian National Bank, SUERF, the Polish National Bank and the National Bank of Ukraine.

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION CHANNEL IN INDONESIA WITH A SINGLE TARGET OF INFLATION FOR THE PERIOD 2016:08 - 2022:12

The purpose of this study is to determine The Monetary Policy Transmission Channel In Indonesia With A Single Target of Inflation For The Period 2016:08 - 2022:12. The research method used the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the period August 2016 until December 2022. This study uses secondary data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and CEIC (a company providing financial and macroeconomic indicator data). The results of this study show that inflation responses to the shock of variables in the Monetary Channel, Interest Rate Channel, and Inflation Expectation Channel is not very much. Viewed from the result of the Impulse Response Test and Variance Decomposition, the three channels for monetary policy transmission (monetary channel, interest rate channel, and expectation channel) must be more effectively implemented in Monetary Policy decision-making in Indonesia. The interest rate channel is the most effective channel among the three channels. The results of the Impulse Response test and Variance Decomposition prove that inflation responses to the shock of variables in the Interest Rate channel are the strongest and have the least time lag and variance of those variables. The most suitable variable used for an operational target in an interest rate channel is BI-7-Days-Repo-Rate (BI7DR). Based on comparation of the other two variables (deposit rate and interbank money market rate), the results of the Impulse Response test and Variance Decomposition show that BI7DR shock obtains strong and quick inflation responses.

Response of stock return volatility to money market rates in Nigeria

Response of stock return volatility to money market rates in Nigeria

On the effectiveness of the interest rate channel within inflation targeting in Ukraine: a VAR approach

Assessing the effectiveness of the inflation targeting framework via the interest rate channel remains crucial in the current monetary policy debate. For Ukraine, the relevance of this discussion is enhanced by the adoption by the National Bank of a rigid inflation targeting policy since 2016, as well as by the challenges of price stability during war. The aim of the study is to identify how the discount rate affects the money market rates and how this affects inflation in Ukraine. Employing a VAR model on monthly data spanning 2016 – Q1 2022, the analysis demonstrates weak empirical evidence for the interest rate channel effectiveness. The impulse response indicates that the discount rate’s initial effect does not provide long-term inflation dynamics control. Variance decomposition analysis highlights the minimal influence of the NBU’s discount rate, primarily evident in the refinancing rate, followed by its impact on the rate of term deposits made by individuals, followed by the inflation, followed by the rate of new loans granted to residents, and finally the rate of government bond yields. Addressing the limitations of a rigid inflation targeting approach, the study recommends adopting a balanced approach, considering both price stability supported by exchange rate control measures and fostering economic growth. Additionally, a viable strategy for deepening the financial sector should be developed.

Macroeconomic Impacts of Global Oil and Commodity Price Shocks on the Economy of Pakistan

The effects of oil and commodity price shocks on Pakistan's real exchange rate, inflation rate, government spending, money market rate, and industrial output are examined using monthly data from 2000-2017. Using the vector autoregressive (VAR) paradigm, we do an empirical investigation. Impulse response functions and generalized prediction variance decompositions are used to analyze the effect that fluctuations in oil and commodities prices have on Pakistan's economy. When the world oil price (LWOP) causes shock in the global oil market, the real exchange rate (LRER) shows a negative impulse response function. As a result of the rising cost of crude oil throughout the globe, inflation has been on the rise. Industrial output falls, the real exchange rate rises, and interest rates and inflation go up as a result of shocks. Despite increased industrial production, commodities prices have seen repercussions. Pakistan's interest rate follows shocks by rising for a prolonged period, much as the money market rate (MMR)or interest rate. After oil and commodity price shocks, governments tend to increase their spending. The real effective exchange rate is the primary source of economic volatility, as shown by generalized impulse response functions. Pakistan's economy has been hit hard by the shocks, especially the aftershocks in the currency rate. A depreciating currency rate is being seen in Pakistan. The real effective exchange rate is the main cause of fluctuations in the economy, as demonstrated by tools called generalized impulse response functions.

Monetary policy implementation: Which “new normal”?

This article provides a simple model of monetary policy implementation, analyzing both the interest rate steering (IRS) and the quantitative easing (QE) policies. The model shows that the “floor system”, introduced with QE policies, is preferable to the traditional “corridor system”, for two reasons. First, it endows central banks with one more degree of freedom, since the interest rate and the balance sheet policies become two independent instruments. Second, it enhances the ability of central banks to keep the money market rates in line with their target level. This second prediction is confirmed by an empirical analysis of the money market in the euro area. Therefore, in the “new normal” monetary policy should be implemented by steering the level of interest rates within a floor system, instead of relying on the corridor system used in the old IRS framework.11I wish to thank the Reviewer and the Editor for their very useful comments on a previous version of this article.

Diferencial entre el €STR y el tipo de interés de la facilidad de depósito

Rationale This article analyses the factors that are contributing to the widening of the spread between the euro short-term rate (€STR) and the deposit facility rate, with a view to assessing monetary policy transmission in the Eurosystem. Takeaways •The key factors that explain the behaviour of this spread are the expansion of the Eurosystem’s balance sheet and the change in the monetary policy stance. •The pass-through of the recent interest rate hikes to money market rates has been effective and cannot explain the widening of the spread. •Once the rate hiking cycle comes to an end, the contraction in the Eurosystem’s balance sheet can be expected to curb or even reverse the trend observed in the spread.

Monetary policy and inflation targeting under global uncertainty: a SVAR approach for Tunisia

PurposeThe implementation of monetary policy by the central bank is an ongoing topic of discussion. This paper aims to explore monetary policy transmission shocks in times of uncertainty using the new World uncertainty index (WUI). The authors investigate the impact of crises, wars and pandemic shocks on selected macroeconomic variables.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use unit root tests, structural vector autoregressive model and the Granger causality test according to Toda–Yamamoto with quarterly data over 1999–2022.FindingsThe results of this study show that in the short run, there is a unidirectional relationship between the money market rate and WUI, while the relationship between the latter and the money supply (M2) is bidirectional. The short-term effect runs from WUI to inflation. In the long run, the variance decomposition shows that global uncertainty explains around 12% of inflation pressures. The uncertainty caused by special events in the world creates positive shocks on inflation in Tunisia, which decreases the ability of the central bank to control inflation.Research limitations/implicationsThe results have implications over necessary and urgent actions to be implemented for a progressive economic recovery but point to a necessary transition to an inflation-targeting regime.Originality/valueExamining monetary policy under uncertainty is a recent phenomenon. The authors purposely use a novel WUI by Ahir et al. (2022) that is unexploited in literature.

Financial development, interest rate pass-through and interest rate channel of monetary policy

The paper examined the interest rate operations and processes in Nigeria and examined the role of financial development in incentivizing central bank monetary policies from the monetary policy rate to the money market rates, lending rates, and deposit rates. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 2021 with sub-samples for 1981 to 2011 and 1991 to 2021 to test the consistency of the findings. The findings confirmed that interest rate pass-through is incomplete for Nigeria, albeit to a lower degree in the short run compared to the long run. The reasons for this may be due to interest rate stickiness, problems of asymmetric information, and bank switching costs. Also, the findings confirmed that financial development weakens the impact of monetary policy on the interest rate pass-through process, while the analysis of the asymmetric mean adjustment lags confirmed that changes in the policy rate are transmitted to the deposit and lending rates within the year it was announced. The analysis confirmed that the results across each sub-sample and the robustness tests are consistent with the main analysis. Therefore, it is imperative that policymakers should account for financial development when designing monetary policy effectiveness since it can hinder or strengthen the interest rate monetary policy channel.

Money Market Disconnect

Abstract A repurchase agreement (repo) is a source of cash and collateral. We document that the money market is more segmented when the collateral motive prevails. Two crucial aspects of the central bank framework lead to this disconnect: banks’ access to the central bank’s deposit facility and assets’ eligibility for quantitative easing (QE). We show that repo rates lent by banks with access to the deposit facility and secured by QE eligible assets are more collateral-driven and disconnected from funding-based money market rates. Our results are relevant for different monetary policies and have suggestive implications for the monetary policy pass-through. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Persistence and long memory in monetary policy spreads

ABSTRACT The overnight money market rate is a key monetary policy tool. In recent years, central banks worldwide have developed new monetary policy strategies aimed at keeping its deviations from the policy rate small and short-lived. This paper describes the main instruments used for this purpose by the US Fed, the ECB and the BoE and also their policy responses to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Fractional integration and long-memory methods are then applied to investigate how those affected the persistence of policy spreads (i.e. the difference between overnight rates and policy rates) during different sub-periods. It is found that this increased sharply during the GFC but has fallen back in recent years. In the case of the ECB the introduction of the new €-STR benchmark in particular appears to have made monetary policy more effective.

A Policy Rate Channel Testing of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

Against the backdrop of invariant financial and economic reforms, there are presumptive changes in the confines and speed with which target variables respond to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy signals. The result of transmission lags from monetary policy to the real sector is unmistakable. The empirical approach used in this study is a natural progression from the VAR model videlicet, co-integration, and error correction techniques used to overcome the problem of spurious regression associated with non-stationary time-series data. After a shock induces disequilibrium, the speed and degree of adjustment return to a balanced state but with some time lag. The results indicate that in the two-step verification model, it takes approximately 2.851 months for WACMR to fully respond to a change in policy rates, whereas in the second step, it takes approximately 10.33 months for base rates to reach their complete pass-through following changes in call money market and deposit rates.

Pass-through Effects of Oil Prices on LATAM Emerging Stocks before and during COVID-19: An Evidence from a Wavelet -VAR Analysis

Vector Auto regression model (VAR) a time -varying parameter is applied to study the effect of oil price shocks on the returns of stocks in the LATAM (Latin American) markets. Coherent Wavelet analysis highlights possibilities of connectedness of the oil price and LATAM stock markets through the presence of different patterns in a time series. The structural demand shocks standard deviations during the COVID-19 era remain high and the pass-through effects on stock returns due to oil prices differ for different time frames. The fundamental linkages are demonstrated due to oil market specific demand. The main motive of the research work is to identify the influence of oil price on stocks and identify the fundamental source of contagion. A random effects model is applied to the panel data of LATAM markets with the Global stock market index, MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index), domestic money market rates and currency exchange rates during the period of study, 15 March 2019 to 31 July 2021 with 684 observations of controlled non-observed characteristics from individual country. The findings of this research recommend the pass-through effect of the oil prices on the stock market returns are based on time frequency. The contribution of this paper helps the policy makers to restore the confidence amongst the investors in the stock markets and strategies to be adopted by the investors to mitigate the risk by ideal portfolio management.

Response of stock return volatility to money market rates in Nigeria

Response of stock return volatility to money market rates in Nigeria

Déterminants de la liquidité bancaire dans les pays de l'Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA)

L'objectif : Cet article vise à identifier les facteurs de la liquidité bancaire dans les pays de l'Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine à partir d'un échantillon de 84 banques sur une période allant de 2006 à 2020. Conception/méthodologie/approche : Ainsi, pour y parvenir, le modèle dynamique ARDL a été adopté. Deux ratios de liquidité ont été calculés. Le premier (RL1) mesure la part des prêts dans le total des actifs alors que le second (RL2) est obtenu en faisant le rapport du total des prêts sur le total des dépôts. Résultats : Les tests de cointégration de Kao (1999) et de Pédroni (2004) ont révélé l'existence d'une relation, à long terme, entre les ratios de liquidité et ses déterminants. En outre, les estimations ont montré que le taux de croissance du PIB et la taille des banques ont un effet positif et significatif sur le RL1, alors que l'impact du taux du marché interbancaire s'est avéré négatif et significatif. Par ailleurs, un effet positif et significatif du taux du marché monétaire et de la taille de la banque sur le RL2 est observé aussi bien par l'estimateur PMG que celui du DFE. En revanche, le taux du marché interbancaire exerce une influence négative et significative sur le RL2. Originalité/valeur : A cet effet, les autorités monétaires devraient initier des mesures incitatives pour permettre aux banques secondaires de posséder la liquidité qu'elle aurait souhaitée. De plus, nous plaidons pour un recours limité des États auprès des banques pour le financement de leurs déficits.

The monetary policy impact on agricultural growth and food prices

Agricultural growth is closely associated with sustainable economic development. This is especially true from the perspective of developing countries, such as Indonesia and Pakistan, where significant portions of the labour force are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. This paper aims to examine the effects of macroeconomic policy (i.e. monetary policy) on employment, food inflation, and agricultural growth by analysing to what extent monetary policy is effective in controlling food price inflation, the effect of contractionary monetary policy on the agricultural sector’s employment and productivity, and the extent of monetary policy transmission to money market rates and 10-year interest rates. We employed a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005) to agricultural data from 1995 and 1996 to 2016 for Indonesia and Pakistan, respectively. Main findings of the study demonstrate that tight monetary policy significantly reduced food inflation and agricultural production while increasing the rural unemployment rate. Short-term and 10-year interest rates increased owing to the contractionary monetary policies pursued by both countries. An inclusive monetary policy whereby policymakers work alongside governments to achieve price stabilisation and reasonable employment rates is recommended.

Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach

The transmission of monetary policy through the interest rate mechanism has been thoroughly discussed in economic literature for quite some time. The traditional view is that, the change in real interest rate influences the cost of capital. The change in cost of capital affects the magnitude of investment and consumption and therefore the level of, real income and prices [Mishkin (1995)].1 Operationally the State bank of Pakistan, influences the yield on treasury bills (T-bills). This is done on the assumption that the yield on treasury bills influences other interest rates like the Money Market rate (Call money rate), banks’ deposit and banks’ Lending rates. The change in these rates influences the cost of capital and thus level of investment and consumption in the economy. Given this, the central bank can influence the yield on T-bills to influence the level of real income and the level of prices. The foregoing explanation of the monetary transmission mechanism makes it clear that if the changes in yield on the T-Bill rate are not passed on to the Call money rate and the bank deposit and the Lending rate then it becomes difficult for the central bank to use the channels that involve interest rate, for influencing the level of output and prices. Hence it is important to test whether the changes in the treasury bill rate are passed on to money market rate, bank deposit rate and the bank lending rate and if yes at what speed and to what extent. Therefore this study examines the pass-through of the changes in Treasury bill rate to Call Money rate, Banks’ deposit rate and Banks’ Lending rate.

Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market”

This paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Karachi Stock Exchange Index. The macroeconomic variables are represented by the industrial production index, the consumer price index, M1, and the value of an investment earning the money market rate. We employ a vector error correction model to explore such relationships during 1973:1 to 2004:4. We found that these five variables are cointegrated and two long-term equilibrium relationships exist among these variables. Our results indicated a "causal" relationship between the stock market and the economy. Analysis of our results indicates that industrial production is the largest positive determinant of Pakistani stock prices, while inflation is the largest negative determinant of stock prices in Pakistan. We found that while macroeconomic variables Granger-caused stock price movements, the reverse causality was observed in case of industrial production and stock prices. Furthermore, we found that statistically significant lag lengths between fluctuations in the stock market and changes in the real economy are relatively short.

Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework

Abstract This paper has adopted a Bayesian FAVAR approach to examine the monetary transmission mechanism in North Macedonia. The model is based on a broad data set that encompasses 140 monthly time series spanning between January 2010 and January 2019. In particular, the impact of policy on bank portfolio variables, and the impact of policy on economic activity variables have been evaluated. Our findings show that monetary tightening, causes a fall in output, inflation rate, employment, bank lending, the stock of government securities held by banks, and equity prices. On the other hand, it increases short-term money market rates, lending rates, deposits, and only in the immediate aftermath of the key policy rate rise, the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio. The study is expected to provide useful input to monetary policy implementation in North Macedonia. The study as well enriches the literature in this domain by discussing the challenges facing monetary authorities of small open economies with fixed exchange rate regimes in understanding how their policy instrument work through the economy.