Money Market Interest Rates Research Articles

Analisis Pengaruh Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Melalui Jalur Suku Bunga Dan Harga Aset Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Tahun 2017-2023

This study aims to analyze the effect of monetary policy transmission through the interest rate channel using the Bank Indonesia Certificate Interest Rate (RSBI) and the Interbank Money Market Interest Rate (RPUAB) indicators and through the asset price channel using the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) and Real Investment (IR) indicators. The data used is secondary data obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The data analysis used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with the Eviews 10 application. The results of this study indicate that in the long run the Bank Indonesia Certificate Interest Rate (RSBI) has a significant negative effect on inflation, the Interbank Money Market Interest Rate (RPUAB) has a significant positive effect on inflation, the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) has a significant negative effect on inflation, and Real Investment (IR) has a positive and significant effect on inflation. While in the short term, the Bank Indonesia Certificate Interest Rate (RSBI) has a negative and insignificant effect on inflation, the Interbank Money Market Interest Rate (RPUAB) has a negative and insignificant effect on inflation, the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) has a negative and insignificant effect on inflation, and Real Investment (IR) has a positive and insignificant effect on inflation.

Analisis Bi Rate, Inflasi, dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Tingkat Tabungan pada Bank-Bank Umum Di Indonesia: Sebelum dan Pasca Pandemi Covid-19

There are 3 main impacts in using the BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate instrument as the new policy interest rate, one of which is increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission through its influence on movements in money market interest rates and banking interest rates. Interest rates will affect the level of savings in society. How effective was this interest rate during the pre-pandemic and post-Covid-19 pandemic periods in influencing people's savings levels? The movement of the savings rate is interesting to observe because this variable will experience quite elastic movements when there is the influence of other macroeconomic variables such as inflation and exchange rates. This research aims to measure the impact of movements in the BI rate, inflation and exchange rate on public savings at commercial banks in Indonesia in 2018-2021. This research uses mixed methods. Mixed method is a research method that combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. This research uses an Explanatory Sequential design, starting with data collection and analyzing quantitative (numerical) data in stage 1 and continuing with collecting and analyzing qualitative data (text) in stage 2 which is built based on the results or findings in stage 1 (Creswell and Clark, 2018). This design aims to provide a deeper explanation based on the results or findings in quantitative research, where the quantitative research uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The variables used in this research are BI Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate and Community Savings in commercial banks. The time period analyzed is from 2017-2020. The results of this research prove that the variables that had a significant influence on people's savings levels in the period before the Covid-19 pandemic were inflation and the exchange rate, while the BI rate had no significant influence. In the post-pandemic period, it is proven that the variables that have a significant influence on people's savings levels are the BI rate and inflation, while the exchange rate variable has no significant influence.

A Comparative Study of the Effects of Two Monetary Policy Tools on Money Market Interest Rates

This paper focuses on the regulation effect of money market interest rates from monetary policy tools. By employing Time-Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregressive model, we comparatively analyze the effects of the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) and the 7-Day Reverse Repurchase Agreements in the Open Market (RR7D) on the 7-Day Repo Rate of Deposit-taking Financial Institutions (DR007). It is found that SLF can marginally improve DR007 in the short term but can effectively lower it in the medium to long term by acting as the ceiling of the interest rate corridor. RR7D can improve DR007 with a stronger impact, compared to the SLF. The effectiveness of these monetary policy tools remains relatively stable under different socio-economic backgrounds, achieving the intended objectives of the central bank. Finally, the study proposes suggestions, close integration of the interest rate corridor and open market operations in monetary policy regulation, and encourages the use of SLFs to support the high-quality development of the national economy.

Macroeconomic Impacts of Global Oil and Commodity Price Shocks on the Economy of Pakistan

The effects of oil and commodity price shocks on Pakistan's real exchange rate, inflation rate, government spending, money market rate, and industrial output are examined using monthly data from 2000-2017. Using the vector autoregressive (VAR) paradigm, we do an empirical investigation. Impulse response functions and generalized prediction variance decompositions are used to analyze the effect that fluctuations in oil and commodities prices have on Pakistan's economy. When the world oil price (LWOP) causes shock in the global oil market, the real exchange rate (LRER) shows a negative impulse response function. As a result of the rising cost of crude oil throughout the globe, inflation has been on the rise. Industrial output falls, the real exchange rate rises, and interest rates and inflation go up as a result of shocks. Despite increased industrial production, commodities prices have seen repercussions. Pakistan's interest rate follows shocks by rising for a prolonged period, much as the money market rate (MMR)or interest rate. After oil and commodity price shocks, governments tend to increase their spending. The real effective exchange rate is the primary source of economic volatility, as shown by generalized impulse response functions. Pakistan's economy has been hit hard by the shocks, especially the aftershocks in the currency rate. A depreciating currency rate is being seen in Pakistan. The real effective exchange rate is the main cause of fluctuations in the economy, as demonstrated by tools called generalized impulse response functions.

Central Bank Credibility’s Effect on Stock Exchange Returns’ Volatility: Evidence from OECD Countries

Central bank characteristics are important determinants of stock market returns and their volatility. While the literature has examined the effects of transparency and independence, no research has been conducted so far on the effect of central bank credibility on stock market returns’ volatility. A panel regression using financial and macroeconomic data from 45 OECD member countries over the period of 1998–2022 tested the hypothesis that central bank credibility determines stock exchange returns’ volatility. The results indicated that credibility reduces stock returns’ volatility, remaining robust and statistically significant across models. Economic growth also decreases stock market volatility, while money-market interest rates’ volatility, the stock market’s turnover ratio, and economic/financial crises act as amplifying factors of stock market volatility. All variables, except for economic growth, exhibit unidirectional causality, leading to changes in stock market volatility.

INTEREST RATES IN INDONESIAN BANKS' ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOR AND DEGREE OF PASSTHROUGH

Interest rate changes result in a trade-off between reducing inflation and capital inflows. Capital inflow will reduce money market interest rates as low as possible, followed by lower lending and deposit rates. On the other hand, it is difficult to lower the benchmark interest rate due to inflation pressure. The asymmetric movement of lending and deposit interest rates to the benchmark interest rate has caused disturbances to the monetary transmission mechanism. The results of the estimated error-correction model for variable lending rates found that the long-term passthrough of Indonesian banks was significant but could have been better on interest rates on working capital loans and investment loans. This study shows an asymmetrical behavior in banking interest rates in Indonesia. The passthrough degree is typically slow when there is a decrease in the benchmark interest rate.

Retracted: Correlation Analysis of Interbank Money Market Interest Rate and Financial Crisis Based on Neural Network Model

Retracted: Correlation Analysis of Interbank Money Market Interest Rate and Financial Crisis Based on Neural Network Model

A monetary policy–based explanation of swap spreads in China

AbstractThe dynamics of swap spreads in China cannot be explained by commonly recognized factors documented in the literature. A unique feature of China's financial system is that commercial banks are not only long‐term loan providers but also dominant bond investors. Thus, the loan prime rate (LPR) is an opportunity cost for commercial banks' bond holdings. However, the LPR is largely determined by the central bank and often deviates significantly from equilibrium. In contrast, the swap rate is largely determined by the market. Our illustrative model and empirical evidence show that the LPR and funding availability affect bond yields more than swap rates, while volatility in the money market interest rate affects swap rates more than bond yields. Therefore, the swap spread is largely driven by the monetary policy. We also show that swap spreads can be a predictor of excess returns on bonds but not swaps.

Effect of Money Market Operations on Industrial Productivity in Nigeria

Nigeria's industrial zone is often seen as an instrument of economic development, and the financial sector is frequently seen as the fuel that accelerates the growth of that sector. These two areas are bound to interact in a way that benefits both. To that end, this study evaluated the impact of money market activities on industrial production in Nigeria. Quantitative data (time series data) was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria's statistics bulletin in 2021. The findings discovered that the interest rate was a highly predictive and negative factor for industrial sector production in Nigeria, but had little to no influence on production directly. But there exists a strong positive correlation amid the money supply and industrial production in Nigeria. Findings suggest that money market interest rates should be decreased and maintained by regulatory bodies at current levels. It is the job of the central bank to make sure there is always enough cash on hand for productive endeavours.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ КРАТКОСРОЧНЫМИ СТАВКАМИ ДЕНЕЖНОГО РЫНКА В УСЛОВИЯХ УСТОЙЧИВОГО ПРОФИЦИТА ЛИКВИДНОСТИ НА РЫНКЕ МЕЖБАНКОВСКОГО КРЕДИТОВАНИЯ

One of the central bank’s operative objectives is control of short-term interest rates. It means that monetary authority maintains short-term interest rates within a specified corridor and provides their conformity to the policy rate level. Monetary policy tools, which provide liquidity and absorb it from the interbank lending market, insure effective interest rate steering policy. In conventional times central banks implement their monetary policy in case of insignificant deficit of reserve money preserving control over money market interest rates. After the Great Recession central banks of developed countries had to bring tools of unconventional monetary policy in operation, what resulted in unprecedented growth of supply of excess reserves and expansion of central banks’ balance sheets. Basing on experience of Federal Reserve System this article covers the issue of short-term interest rates steering within the scope of significant sustainable structural liquidity surplus on reserve money market.

Analysis of Monetary Policy Mechanism Through Interest Rate Path to Stock Market (IHSG) in Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effectiveness of the influence of the monetary policy mechanism through the interest rate channel on the stock market (IHSG) in Indonesia. In addition, this study aims to determine the strength of the variables contained in the interest rate channel in response to stock market conditions (IHSG) in Indonesia. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) regression model in estimating the influence of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the interest rate channel on the stock market (IHSG) in Indonesia. The data used in this study is secondary data with monthly time series from 2015 to 2022. The secondary data used comes from annual reports that are officially published on the Bank Indonesia website. The research variables used to estimate the influence of the interest rate channel monetary policy transmission mechanism on the stock market (IHSG) are the BI rate, interbank money market interest rate (PUAB), deposit rate, Covid 19 and the composite stock price index. The results of this study indicate that the effectiveness of the monetary policy mechanism through the effective interest rate channel for the stock market (IHSG) in Indonesia. This effectiveness can be seen in the short and long term, the major changes in the JCI response were influenced by the impact of shocks from the interest rate channel. However, it should be noted that in the long run the Covid-19 conditions have a large influence on the JCI, followed by deposit rates. interest rates are in the shock of deposit rates which have an influence on the JCI. Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism, JCI, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).

Analysis of the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Baltic region

The study aims to compare the effects of fiscal policy shocks in three Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - within SVAR framework, using the identification scheme proposed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). The time sample covers quarterly data over the period of 2002q1-2019q4. The main idea of the study is to identify the effects of fiscal policy shocks in three euro area member states under a single monetary policy of the European Central Bank, but with country-specific fiscal policy shaped by the European fiscal framework. The results show that, generally, in the short term (up to four quarters), output reacts consistently with the Keynesian view, emphasizing the importance of using discretionary fiscal policy tools in stimulating economic activity in the Baltic region. However, in Estonia and Latvia, the calculated impact multipliers for net taxes are larger than spending multipliers. Although each country reacts differently to its country-specific fiscal shock, the response to the euro area money market interest rate innovation is quite similar with respect to the direction of the effect, which may indicate the robustness of the Baltic region in terms of the euro area shocks. Thus, the results emphasize the importance of conducting domestic fiscal policy adapted to the conditions of each of the analysed economies. Based on the assumptions and the methodology used in this study, the obtained findings show the limited effects of spending on Baltic economies in comparison with the effects caused by the shocks in net taxes. Moreover, due to the lack of large-scale analysis regarding the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Baltic states, the obtained results are a valuable contribution to the debate about the ‘appropriate’ size of the fiscal multipliers for the Baltic region.

Correlation Analysis of Interbank Money Market Interest Rate and Financial Crisis Based on Neural Network Model

This paper combines the neural network model to analyze the correlation between the interbank money market interest rate and the financial crisis, and theoretically analyzes the influence of the characteristics of the banking industry on the transmission of monetary policy interest rates. Moreover, this paper constructs a theoretical model to analyze the influence of banking industry characteristics on the transmission of monetary policy interest rate and examines whether the variables of banking industry characteristics still affect the measurement indicators of monetary policy interest rate transmission after the financial crisis subsides. In addition, this paper combines the neural network model to construct a correlation analysis system between the interbank money market interest rate and the financial crisis. The experimental research shows that the correlation analysis between the interbank money market interest rate and the financial crisis based on the neural network model proposed in this paper can play a certain role.

Monetary Policy Transmission and Bank Interest Rates in Nigeria

The paper examines the adjustment of retail and money market interest rates to changes in discount corridor of the monetary policy in Nigeria. A vector error correction model was adopted for this study, using monthly data from 2007:06 to 2019:12. We further accounted for structural breaks in the dataset to improve its policy reliability. The adjustment parameters were found to be significant but with slow speed of adjustment. This finding provides evidence of the weakness of the discount corridor in monetary policy transmission in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results showed no asymmetric adjustment of retail rates to long run equilibria. Lastly, the study found that the deposit rates respond inversely to changes in the standing lending facility. The results imply that the transmission of policy signals through the standing facility rates is not strong, and that raising the standing lending facility will not induce a rise in banks’ deposit rates.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПРОЦЕНТНЫМИ СТАВКАМИ ДЕНЕЖНОГО РЫНКА БАНКОМ АНГЛИИ

After world financial crisis of 2008 central banks of developed countries started to implement unconventional monetary policy because of the zero lower bound problem. Such policy actions have led to expansion of balance sheets of these central banks arising from unprecedented growth of excess reserves’ supply. This article covers the issue of controlling short-term money market interest rates by Bank of England in case of sustainable liquidity surplus. It is underlined that paying interest on excess and required reserves contributes to reduction of distortions in commercial banks’ operation activities and elimination of reserve money opportunity cost, which impedes monetary authority in controlling short-term interest rates of interbank lending market.

Effects of selected macroeconomic determinants on consumption expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants affecting consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using panel data from 2005 to 2018. Fixed effects models and dynamic fixed effects models are developed and analysed. The first model includes panel data for 25 SSA countries, considering consumption, foreign aid, foreign direct investment, international trade, and inflation. The second model incorporates a monetary policy element by adding money market interest rate. From the models derived, the paper reveals an empirical relationship between international trade and consumption, with trade having a negative effect on consumption which points to a different distribution than is expected. The dynamic fixed effects models respectively establish that past consumption has an effect on present consumption and that monetary policy through interest rate is negatively correlated with consumption. The significance of the other determinants is not proven, which could serve as meaningful information to policy makers when deciding about what really matters.

What Affects Income in Sub-Saharan Africa?

This paper closely examines how selected macroeconomic variables affect income in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study employs a more recent dataset and uses fixed and random effects models to characterise the nature and direction of impact evidenced from the data. The analysis further incorporates a monetary policy element by introducing money market interest rate and examining its effects. In general, the paper reveals that income in SSA is significantly affected by trade. Additionally, money market interest rate is found to have no major impact on income as may be perceived, suggesting that this aspect of monetary policy has not played a major role in affecting income levels in SSA. The findings of this study can serve as a guide for policy makers within the region when considering policy actions in relation to income.

Monetary Policy Transmission in Financial Markets: The Case of India

<p>The paper looks into the monetary policy transmission across different segments of the financial market in India from May 2011 to March 2018. It studies the effect of two instruments ie, policy rate and a composite index ( score) comprising of quantity instruments and policy rates on the money market, govt. securities market, foreign exchange market and the stock market using VAR analysis. The results show that monetary transmission is fairly quick in the money market and other interest rates of short maturity compared to interest rates of longer maturities. The impact on interest rates is an appreciation for the policy rate but a depreciation followed by an appreciation for the composite index. Lastly the effect of policy rate and composite index on the sensex is negative.</p>

FINANCIAL DEEPENING RELATIONSHIP WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA

This article aims to analyze the interaction between financial deepening and economic growth in Indonesia. In this case, it also indirectly analyzes the interaction between the research control variables, namely the interbank money market interest rate and the exchange rate with economic growth in Indonesia. The journal uses secondary data, including taking from the official website of the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia, which is the website of the Republic of Indonesia government. This journal uses an analysis of the interaction between variables in the period 2010-2019. The method used is the VECM method, a method used to explore financing and exchange rates which have a significant negative interaction with economic growth in Indonesia. And the interbank money market interest rate has a significant negative interaction with economic growth in Indonesia. In addition, the financial interior also has directional interactions with the government in Indonesia so that it can be said to follow bidirectional causality.Keywords: Financial Deepening, Economic Growth, VRCM, and bidirectional causality JEL : G320, C320

Interest rates forecasting: Between Hull and White and the CIR#—How to make a single‐factor model work

AbstractIn this work, we present our findings of the so‐called CIR#, which is a modified version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR) model, turned into a forecasting tool for any term structure. The main feature of the CIR# model is its ability to cope with negative interest rates, cluster volatility, and jumps. By considering a dataset composed of money market interest rates during turmoil and calmer periods, we show how the CIR# performs in terms of directionality of rates and forecasting error. Comparison is carried out with a revamped version of the CIR model (denoted ), the Hull and White model, and the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which is often adopted whenever no structure in data is assumed. To confirm the analysis, testing and validation is performed on both historical and ad hoc data with different metrics and clustering criteria.