Monetary Variables Research Articles

Cluster Analysis of Furniture for Export Customers Position at UD HK Jepara

A furniture production company needs to categorize its customers, especially those who are involved in export. The company has analyzed export shipment records from June 6, 2015, to April 23, 2022. The analysis used the Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) variables, which have been widely used in the field of marketing. The k-means clustering algorithm was employed for the analysis, resulting in the division of customers into three clusters. Cluster 1 comprises customers with the highest and most valuable purchases, including those with the codes CL, FR, NC, and RE. Cluster 2 includes customers who excel in one of the RFM variables, with codes AN, AR, BN, IN, IT, KE, KR, LK, MU, MY, SA, SC, SM, TW, and UN. Customers in Cluster 3 have the fewest and least valuable purchases, including those with the codes GP, KN, NL, OM, PT, and TZ.

The VECM implementation for measuring the impact of monetary variables on Indonesia Property Prices Index

The basic human need for housing makes property investment safer than other sectors because demand tends to be stable despite changing economic conditions. The decision to invest is influenced by various aspects, including economic variables, including GDP, property credit growth, non-performing loans (NPLs), interest rates, exchange rates, and money supply, which are then examined for their influence on the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) in Indonesia through this research using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with quarterly data from 2003 to 2022. The findings show that GDP, interest rates, and money supply have a significant long-term impact on the RPPI. In the short-term, GDP and property credit growth have a negative impact on RPPI, while NPL and exchange rate do not. Causality tests indicate a bidirectional relationship between NPL and GDP with RPPI, with probability values exceeding 0.05. This study provides valuable insights into the monetary factors affecting residential property prices and suggestions for future research. AcknowledgmentThe authors gratefully acknowledge Ahmad Dahlan University for the support and facilities provided in conducting this research. They also greatly appreciate the academic resources that supported the data collection process and careful analysis of our findings. Besides, the authors express their gratitude to Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik for their invaluable contribution to the data used in this research.

Analysis of the Impact of Monetary Policy Instruments on Economic Growth in Indonesia by 2013 to 2023

Based on quarterly data by 2001Q1 to 2017Q2, this research and study covers theoretical debates and empirical studies on the factors that affect economic stability and their effect on the financial sector's performance. This study applies the Ordinary Least Square (O.L.S.) method to the Cointegration and Engle Granger-Error Correction Model (E.C.M.) methods. E.C.M. is done to assess the long-term validity and balance of the research model and foresee potential flaws and discrepancies among the theoretical and statistical models. Even while the M2 variable has no discernible effect on G.D.P. during the observation period, the research findings demonstrate that, over the long run, there is a balance among changes in G.D.P. and monetary variables, such as interest rates, Inflation, M2, and the rupiah value. On the other hand, the E.C.T. variable has a significant short-term effect on fluctuations in G.D.P. Interest rates, Inflation, M2, and exchange rates had no discernible effect on G.D.P. throughout this time. Thus, changes in monetary variables, particularly interest rates, Inflation, and M2, tend to effect G.D.P. The average quarterly financial deepening in Indonesia for the observation period was 3.80 per cent, according to the outcomes of the financial performance study. Furthermore, M2 growth during the same period was 3.03 per cent, compared to Indonesia's average quarterly economic growth of 1.36 per cent.

Nexus between Monetary Indicators and Bitcoin in Selected Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel ARDL

The rapid adoption and growing prominence of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have sparked significant interest and debate among economists, policymakers, and financial analysts. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where traditional financial systems often face challenges such as limited access to banking services, high transaction costs, and volatile currencies, Bitcoin presents both opportunities and risks. Understanding the interplay between Bitcoin and key monetary indicators such as monetary aggregates, exchange rates, and interest rates can provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in these economies. This study therefore seeks to investigate the nexus between monetary indicators and Bitcoin in selected Sub-Saharan African countries using a Panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach. The analysis focuses on understanding the dynamic relationship between key monetary variables, such as monetary aggregates, exchange rates, interest rates, and Bitcoin prices, from 2010 quarter three to 2022 quarter four. The findings reveal several significant relationships between monetary indicators and Bitcoin across the selected Sub-Saharan African countries. In the short run of the Panel Ardl monetary aggregates exhibit a positive relationship with Bitcoin prices, indicating that changes in the money supply may influence the demand for cryptocurrencies. Conversely, both exchange rates and interest rates show a negative relationship with Bitcoin prices in the short run, suggesting that currency depreciation and higher borrowing costs may reduce demand for Bitcoin. In the long run, the relationship between monetary aggregates and Bitcoin remains positive, emphasizing the potential influence of money supply on cryptocurrency markets over time. However, the significance of exchange rates diminishes, indicating a less pronounced impact in the longer term. Interestingly, interest rates continue to exhibit a significant negative relationship with Bitcoin prices in the long run, highlighting the persistent effect of borrowing costs on cryptocurrency demand. These results have important implications for policymakers, investors, and researchers interested in the intersection of monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Policymakers may consider the impact of monetary policy decisions on cryptocurrency adoption and market dynamics, while investors can use these insights to inform their investment strategies.

Monetary Policy and Stock Market Dynamics: An Empirical Perspective

This study examines the influence of monetary policy on stock market performance and activity in Bangladesh, focusing on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSEX) index, using monthly data from August 2012 to June 2024. The regression analyses incorporate key monetary variables: the 91-day treasury bill rate, broad money supply, and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The first model reveals that the current month's DSEX index is strongly dependent on the previous month's index level, with the 91-day treasury bill rate showing a significant negative correlation, the broad money supply exhibiting a positive relationship, and the CPI indicating a negative association with market performance. The second model demonstrates that both the 91-day treasury bill rate and CPI negatively impact market turnover, while broad money supply has a positive effect. These findings underscore the crucial role of monetary policy in shaping stock market dynamics in Bangladesh, providing valuable insights for policymakers and investors in emerging markets.

The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination for South Africa

The disconnect between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals has been extensively discussed in the literature. It nonetheless continues to pose theoretical and empirical challenges in the literature. This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. This study used the monetary model of exchange rate determination developed in the 1970s. The study used the TAR to estimate the exchange change rate behaviour in response to variations in monetary variables. We found that the exchange rates respond to the interest rate differential, consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. Furthermore, in all the regimes, the sizes of coefficients are different, which shows that the exchange rate behaviour is non-linear (asymmetric). While the impact of the interest rate differential in regime 1 and 2 leads to exchange rates appreciating although in regime 2 the results are insignificant, this occurs when the exchange rates fluctuate below 0.87 percentage points. In regime 3, on average, a marginal increase in interest rate deferential leads to an exchange rate depreciation. In some instances, the exchange rates respond to the monetary variables’ changes in line with the predictions of the monetary theory of exchange rate determination. An increase in interest rates in some instances leads to an improvement in the value of the exchange rate. However, the conditions are not constant—they vary depending on the state of exchange rate fluctuation.

The Asymmetric Effects of Global Energy and Food Prices, Exchange Rate Dynamics, and Monetary Policy Conduct on Inflation in Indonesia

This research analyzes the asymmetric effects of global energy and food prices and monetary variables, including the exchange rate and money supply, on the consumer price index (CPI). The model is intended to differentiate the influence of increases and decreases in global energy and food prices, exchange rates, and money supply which cause inflation/deflation from changes in the CPI. The analysis uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Quantile Regression models on data from January 2001 to February 2023. The study results show that the decline in global energy prices significantly reduces the CPI in the long run. Energy subsidies allow increases in international energy prices not to increase the CPI significantly. Meanwhile, the increase in global food prices causes inflation in the short run. The exchange rate has the most significant effect on the CPI. Depreciation of the rupiah significantly increases the CPI, which means it causes inflation, while appreciation of the rupiah does not have a significant effect. Finally, increases and decreases in the money supply have a considerable positive effect on the CPI, which confirms the logic of the monetarist view that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Efforts to reduce dependence on imports of food and energy commodities are the key to reducing risks when importing energy and food due to rupiah depreciation. Efforts to consistently stabilize the exchange rate can support controlling and stabilizing import prices. Energy and food subsidy policies are vital in controlling inflation due to increased world energy and food prices.

Impact of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria

This study investigates the impact of interest rates, money supply, and Central Bank reserves on exchange rate stability in Nigeria. Utilizing quarterly economic data from 1980 to 2023, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, the research employs a longitudinal survey design to assess the relationships between these monetary variables and exchange rate volatility. The findings indicate that interest rates, money supply, and Central Bank reserves significantly influence exchange rate fluctuations, with Central Bank reserves having the most substantial impact. Specifically, interest rates exhibit a moderate effect on exchange rate volatility (t = 3.513, p = .001, Beta = .342), while money supply also significantly affects exchange rate volatility (t = 2.713, p = .010, Beta = .305). Central Bank reserves, however, have the most pronounced impact (t = 4.141, p = .000, Beta = .467). These results highlight the critical role of monetary policy in maintaining exchange rate stability. The significant positive relationship between interest rates and exchange rate volatility suggests that monetary authorities should carefully consider the ramifications of interest rate adjustments. Similarly, the influence of money supply underscores the need for meticulous management to prevent destabilization. Robust Central Bank reserves emerge as a crucial buffer against exchange rate fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of effective reserve management policies. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance exchange rate stability through strategic interest rate policies, careful money supply management, and maintaining adequate Central Bank reserves.

DETERMINANTS OF MONETARY VARIABLES AND PHILIPS CURVE TESTING OF INFLATION IN ASIAN COUNTRIES

This study examined the impact of monetary variables on inflation and determined the validity of the Phillips curve in the Asian context. It applied a quantitative methodology with a descriptive orientation. The data source utilized was the World Bank from 2013 to 2022, and the analysis approach employed was panel data regression. The research findings indicate that the money supply variable (M3) has a limited impact on inflation. Simultaneously, both GDP and loan interest rates substantially impact inflation. Conversely, money supply (M3), GDP, male unemployment, and loan interest rates simultaneously influence inflation in Asian countries. The study's findings indicate that unemployment does not exert a noteworthy detrimental impact on inflation, demonstrating the ineffectiveness of the Phillips curve for non-Asian nations. Each ASEAN member state implements diverse policies to manage and control the inflation rate. Hong Kong can enforce price monitoring measures to deter market manipulation. Vietnam could enhance its trade policy to alleviate the consequences of imported inflation. Korea can sustain interest rates at a moderate level. Indonesia can synchronize monetary and fiscal policies in order to manage inflation.

The role of some monetary and financial policy indicators in developing gross domestic product growth: An analytical and measurement study in Iraq

We aim to show the basic features of monetary variables and the nature of the work of monetary policy instruments, and to try to keep pace with the changes that accompanied the action of this policy for the period between 2000–2022. We find that economic stagnation negatively affects economic growth, with increasing bottlenecks affecting the economy in the short term in Iraq. However, elucidating the fundamental characteristics of monetary variables and functioning of monetary policy indicators, such as the money supply, exchange rate, and interest rate, remains a complex task. We used the standard and analytical approach for the results established for monetary policy, the general framework, and analysis of tools, gross domestic product, economic growth, and the impact of monetary policy on economic activity in Iraq for the highest, medium, and low. Through the research, results, the independent variables have a positive effect on the dependent variable that is, increasing the gross domestic product (GDP) for a previous period by one-unit leads to an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP). According to these data, the study presented the necessity of working with monetary policy in Iraq in a way that increases the growth of the gross domestic product. Therefore, it is necessary for monetary policy to work to control the monetary mass by achieving a balanced proportion between the monetary mass and the gross domestic product in order to reach balance between real and cash.

The Response of Macroeconomic Variables to Government Spending Shocks in the Sudanese Economy 1989-2019: Comparing the Structural Shocks (DSGE Approach) and Impulse Response (SVAR Model)

The importance that different (approaches and models) to modeling the macroeconomy place on theoretical coherence compared to their capacity to match the data and the quality of the econometric model description varies. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are more theoretical, whereas vector autoregression (SVAR) models provide a better match to the data. For developed economies, there are well-established publications on measuring the response of economic indicators to government spending shocks and aggregate macroeconomic activity. In addition, such empirical studies in emerging nations are scarce. This research seeks to fill this void by utilizing the DSGE model and the SVAR approach to investigate the influence of the response of macroeconomic variables to government spending shocks in the Sudanese economy from 1989 to 2019. The findings indicate that the influence of government expenditure shocks on the Sudanese economy is inconsistent with Keynesian principles, as some selected macroeconomic indicators do not respond positively to government expenditure shocks. The non-responsiveness of the inflation rate and exchange rate to government expenditure shocks is demonstrated; this finding may indicate the monetary authority’s weakness in managing monetary variables in the Sudanese economy. In most situations, fiscal and monetary policies were in sync, and “double expansionary” and “double contractionary” policy coordination may be the proper approach; and also create tools that fit the Sudanese economy’s structure.

Measurement impact of Real, Financial and Monetary Variables on Inflation rate in Sudan within the period 1990- 2020 by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)

The study aimed to measuring impact of real, financial and monetary variables on inflation in Sudan within the period 1990-2020, to achieve this goal a standard model for the relationship between the variables of the study was formulated and constructed. The data of this study was collected from Central bank of Sudan and Ministry of Finance reports. The study adopts the descriptive method coupled with econometrics tools to reach its goal and achieve its hypothesis, also study used the method of co-integration, Error Correction model (ECM) and Augment-Dickey-fuller (ADF) test to estimate the relationship between variables of the study. The results show that there is a correlation between the variables. The study main findings indicated the existence of a statistically negative relationship between GDP and inflation, and negative relationship between exchange rate and inflation, and negative relationship between exports and inflation, and positive relationship between monetary supply and inflation, and positive relationship between government expenditure. The study findings out that increase exchange rate with 1% that leads to a decrease in inflation rates by 1.6%. The study recommends a deflation financial and monetary policies, increase of production particularly the agricultural sector product, monitor the mining and export of gold. Keywords: Autoregressive model, Financial and Monetary variables, Inflation, Measurement.

The Impact of Social Settings on Loss Aversion

With the continuous development of society, the demand for communication in social settings has been steadily increasing in people's daily lives, leading to increasingly complex interpersonal relationships. Numerous studies have indicated that the expansion of interpersonal relationships influences the degree of individual loss aversion. Therefore, based on existing literature, we hypothesized that the social environment may have an impact on the level of loss aversion. To test our hypothesis, we conducted a questionnaire survey (N=157). We used grades and monetary variables as independent variables and assessed participants' levels of loss aversion through a scoring system. Our data analysis revealed that individuals are more likely to exhibit loss aversion in isolated environments compared to when they are in social settings. Furthermore, based on a review of previous research and data analysis, we speculate that a collectivist cultural background may be a significant factor contributing to these findings. Additionally, in cultures and regions where individualism prevails, individuals may be more inclined to exhibit loss aversion in social situations.

The Response of Monetary Variables to the Implementation of Sterilization Policy: Evidence from Nigeria

This study used the vector autoregressive (VAR) method to investigate how the monetary variables responded to the Central Bank of Nigeria's implementation of the sterilization policy. The study used monthly series that spanned the period from 2010M1 to 2021M3. The variables used are broad money supply (proxied by M2), Treasury bills rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and total sterilization. The data for all the series were obtained from the CBN Statistical Bulletin, except for data on foreign interest rates, which was obtained from the Federal Bank of St Louis. Findings revealed that money supply, exchange rate and inflation rate responded negatively to shocks in sterilization policy in all the periods. The response of Treasury bills rate to shocks in total sterilization was positive up to period two. However, the response became negative after period two. Consequently, the study concludes that the monetary variables responded appropriately to the policy adopted to neutralize the impact of capital inflows in Nigeria. The study recommends that the use of sterilization policy should be complemented with other policies to avoid repeated rounds of sterilization and that domestic investment outlets have to be developed to attract more local investors in the event of a rising domestic interest rate.

Evaluating the Nexus between Monetary Sector Variables and Housing Affordability in Malaysia

Housing affordability is a globally recognized and pressing issue that has prompted extensive discussions in the realms of societal discourse, academic research, and policy development. In the context of Malaysia, this issue persists, despite the government implementing a diverse array of initiatives aimed at alleviating housing affordability challenges. This study aims to explore the nexus between housing affordability and key monetary sector variables, including money supply, interest rates, inflation rates, and foreign exchange rates in Malaysia. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques on a dataset comprising 52 quarterly observations from the years 2010 to 2022. The findings demonstrate the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between money supply, inflation rates, interest rates and housing affordability. Conversely, in the short term, the analysis reveals that only money supply and inflation rates exert a statistically significant influence on housing affordability. The long-term cointegration of money supply and inflation rates with housing affordability, along with their significant short-term relationship, highlights these two monetary variables as primary drivers of housing affordability. These results underscore the critical role of monetary sector variables in determining housing affordability in Malaysia. Consequently, policymakers are encouraged to prioritize the regulation of monetary sector variables, particularly focusing on money supply and inflation rates, to effectively promote housing affordability in Malaysia.

Exchange Rate and Stock Market in Mexico: A Correlation Analysis (1993-2022)

The aim of this paper is to estimate using monthly data the influence of the Mexican Stock Market in the nominal Exchange Rate from 1993 to 2022. We conducted an Exploratory Data Analysis to identify the most important correlations of the following monetary variables: 28-day Mexican Debt bills/ (T-Bill), interest rates, inflation, and Stock Exchange Market both from Mexico and from the USA respectively. We then resorted to a VAR model to indentify which of these variables determined changes in Mexico´s nominal Exchange Rate more significantly. During the period in question the model showed, that Exchange Rate variations were driven by the Mexican Stock Exchange Market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US Treasury Bills. The model also pointed out that variations in Mexican Stock Market were determined by the Mexican Stock Market itself, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US Treasury Bills (T-Bills).

Impact of global liquidity on Indian financial markets and monetary policy outcomes: An ARDL approach

Liquidity management is essential for the financial framework of any economy, especially for operationalizing monetary policy. The relatively resilient Indian financial system experiences the transmission of global liquidity shocks, which results in a reversal of portfolio flows from domestic markets resulting in central bank interventions. This paper examines the impact of global liquidity shocks on key financial and monetary variables of the Indian economy using quarterly data for the period 2000–2018 using an autoregressive distributed lags framework. We find the presence of long-run relationships between global liquidity variables (such as the US treasury bill rate, CBOE-VIX index, and US broad monetary aggregate) and the Indian financial markets (NSE Nifty index) and the monetary policy outcome (91-day Treasury bill rate). In the short run, the results were significant for the impact of the risk aversion measure on domestic policy rate in line with the expectations channel. The exchange rate channel and global money supply also significantly impacted the Indian policy rate. The results have significant policy implications as they indicate the most optimal transmission channels through which global liquidity affects the Indian economy.

Financial Inequities in Optometric Education in Canada: A Comparison of Two Optometry Programs.

The advancing age of the population will require increased access to eyecare services to manage eye diseases and vision correction. Optometric education requires a sound financial plan to manage student debt. This study evaluates the financial inequalities of optometric programs in Canada, and how this may impact the provision of eyecare professionals. The objective of this study was to compare the financial inequities in Optometric education in Canada from the 2020 graduating class. A cross-sectional study assessed monetary variables related to the study of optometry in Canada, including academic and personal expenses, and overall debt and expenses related to the COVID-19 lockdown for the 2020 graduating class. 108 optometry students from the 2020 graduating classes of the University of Montreal and the University of Waterloo responded, with 68 (53 F:15 M, age 25.66, SD = 2.01) completing the study. Waterloo students spent more years in university (P < .001); had higher academic fees (P < .001); spent more on travelling to their family residence (P = .007) and received more provincial (P = .002) and federal (P < .001) loans than Montreal students. Overall debt prior to optometry was similar amongst students but differed (P < .001) at the end of their program, with Waterloo students having a higher debt burden. There is a financial inequity in optometric education in Canada depending on the chosen program. Cumulative optometry student debt for the 2020 graduating class in Canada ranges from $CAN 0 to 189,000 with an average of $CAN 65,800 and a median of $CAN 50,000. The results of this study can assist financial, government agencies and future optometry students to better understand the financial burdens and establish a financial plan to study optometry in Canada, to respond to the growing eyecare needs of the public.

The Effect of Monetary Variable Shocks on Indonesian Portfolio Investment

Monetary variables can affect portfolio investment in the short or long term. The previous studies rarely discuss the effects of monetary variables in the long and short term on portfolio investment. This study looks at monetary indicators that affect investment portfolios in Indonesia. The methodology used in this research is to use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see the response of several variables in the short and long term. The findings suggest that monetary policy should pay special attention to Indonesia's money supply (M2) and savings to influence portfolio investment in the short term. The monetary policy transmission mechanism can use the money and expectation channels to optimize monetary variables to control investment. Meanwhile, in the long run, monetary policy portfolio investment control needs to pay attention to interest rates and savings and adjust to the set inflation target, which can be used in the interest rate channel.JEL Classification: E21, E22, E43, E51, E52 How to Cite:Fuddin, M. K., &amp; Anindyntha, F. A., (2023). The Effect of Monetary Variable Shocks on Indonesian Portofolio Invesment. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(2), 307-326. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v12i2.31525.

Monetary Policy and Economic Growth of Nepal

This study aims to investigate the relationship between key monetary variables in Nepal and GDP growth between 1999 and 2022. All the calculation are made on the base of the data from the website of Nepal Rastra Bank and Ministry of Finance, Nepal. The results have confirmed that the broad money supply and Interest Rate is positively and significantly affect Gross Domestic Product growth in the Nepalese economy. This was done using the Johansen approach to cointegration and the error correction model. Additionally, the Error Correction coefficient term (-0.70) supports the development of a link between monetary-related variables and GDP growth at a 70% rate of adjustments toward the equilibrium.