Monetary Growth Rate Research Articles

Nexus between fintech, green finance and natural resources management: Transition of BRICS nation industries from resource curse to resource blessed sustainable economies

This article offers a comprehensive overview of the rapidly expanding literature on the resource curse phenomenon, in which nations wealthy in natural resources (such as the BRICS) have slower rates of sustainable monetary growth compared to those with less natural resources. This study lays the groundwork for the future of green finance by creating a theoretical basis for the application of fintech to the financial sector. Furthermore, the current research study contributes a fresh paradigm to the natural resource curse literature by exploring the investment and real exchange rate channels, by which green investment and green financing help to alleviate the resource curse. The study proposes a decision-making framework for executives in resource and non-resource sectors subject to the governments of BRICS nations. The research shows that if BRICS nations increase their green investment, they may break free of the resource curse that has plagued them. Findings also show that the development of highly competitive green goods and practices may impede real exchange appreciation, which is consistent with the Dutch disease theory (DDT). The results show, in the end, that the divergent policies of BRICS countries, based on Resource curse theory (RCT) and DDT, would steer enterprise managers towards attaining resource benefit together with sustainable social welfare objectives. Present findings from the study will steer the banking sector strategies to optimise the loan allocation of cash schemes while enabling assessment and supervisory initiatives for coordinating the green transition and strengthening amongst sectors (resource and non-resource). In order to direct the green development of the financial sector and services into the actual economy, green finance policies must be updated and put into practice on a frequent basis. Finally, the current study's management implications include directing industry strategies towards sustainable economic development where the elements responsible for unsustainable economic growth are identified using RCT and DDT.

A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model

A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model

Heterogeneity, monetary policy, Mirrleesian taxes, and the Friedman rule

We consider an overlapping-generations economy with money rationalized through a cash-in-advance constraint and heterogeneous agents subject to nonlinear taxation of labor income and linear taxation of commodity purchases. Some agents are more productive and more financially connected than others leading to their earning more income and requiring a proportionately smaller cash reserve to mediate their expenditures. We show that a nonlinear income tax can always fully neutralize the redistributive implications of who gets the extra money. On the other hand, with differences in financial connectedness, the tax policy cannot neutralize the redistributive implications of the monetary growth rate. Nevertheless the Friedman rule is found to be often desirable as a corner solution without having to impose arbitrary restrictions on the structure of agents’ preferences. At the same time, the differences in connectedness may result in the violation of the Friedman rule.

Information Flow and Expected Inflation:An Empirical Analysis

This article begins by ranking the absolute value of changes in the 10-year breakeven expected inflation (BEI) rates, calculated using 10-year Treasury notes and 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Next, a news search is conducted to determine what inflation-related information was released on days when the change in the BEI was greatest. The goal of the analysis is not only to see what information is associated with large changes in the BEI, but also to gain insight into the extent to which market participants accept the three competing theories of price determination: the classic monetary theory, the fiscal theory, and a “Keynesian” model that combines central bank setting of interest rates with the Phillips curve. The author finds that there was no mention of the money supply, the demand for money, or the rate of monetary growth on any of the days on which there was a large change in the BEI. Further, he finds that there was only one mention of the impact of government debt on a day that the BEI changed substantially. In comparison, there were 53 news items on large change days that either explicitly discussed Federal Reserve policy regarding interest rates or focused on the interaction between Fed policy, economic activity, and expected inflation. This suggests that market participants accept the “Keynesian” model of price determination.

Land supply and money growth in China

China has experienced several episodes of inflation in recent years. Popular arguments attribute these episodes to relatively high growth rates of money, which were then primarily explained by China's accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the undervaluation of RMB. We attempt to explain China's high monetary growth rates through the supply of land. Under China's land system, the supply of land is controlled by the government and can be viewed as exogenous to the monetary system. An increase in the money supply stimulates bank loans and thereby monetary growth. Both an error correction model and a simultaneous equations model are developed to explore the effect of the land supply on monetary growth. The empirical results show that the effect of the land supply on the money supply is significantly positive and even exceeds that of foreign exchange reserves. The significance for monetary policy is that, under China's existing political economy, both the central bank and local governments should be responsible for monetary policy and price levels.

Corruption and Seigniorage

AbstractThere is convincing empirical evidence in cross‐section data of a positive correlation between the level of corruption and the rate of inflation. This paper explores whether this correlation can be a consequence of a government exploiting seigniorage to compensate for revenue lost to corruption. We embed corruption within an overlapping generations economy that has money as the only store of value and in which the government optimizes the rate of monetary growth. Three different forms of corruption are modeled, and it is shown that all three can be positively correlated with increased inflation.

Capitalism’s growth imperative: an examination of Binswanger and Gilányi

:This paper examines Mathias Binswanger’s (2009) model of a growth imperative and Zsolt Gilányi’s (this issue) note on that model. The growth imperative in Binswanger’s model is established through a profit-loan linkage such that loans, as well as the economy as a whole, must grow at a suficiently high rate so that firms make positive profits. To come to this conclusion, Binswanger derives a particular steady-state rate of growth in which profits are zero, which he refers to as the zero profit growth rate. In his note, Gilányi derives his own minimum growth rate based on a constant money supply. Gilányi then compares the two minimum growth rates—Binswanger’s zero profit growth rate and his monetary growth rate—to determine which one is the binding constraint on the model. Upon comparison, Gilányi shows that his monetary constraint is always the binding constraint implying that the zero profit growth rate is redundant. This paper shows that after reformulating Binswanger’s model in order to make its equations stock-flow consistent, the resulting zero profit rate of growth is always the binding constraint. This zero profit rate of growth is thus not redundant as was the case in Binswanger’s model, and, on the contrary, it is Gilányi’s monetary constraint that is redundant in the reformulated model.

Evaluating the welfare aspects of the simple monetary ruls for Iran

This paper following a monetary growth rate rule aims to compare the properties of different monetary policy rules in Iran. In that regards, the paper draws on the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Within this framework, we rank the different policy rules based on the Impulse response Functions, the volatility of key macroeconomic variables and the welfare loss function. The paper concludes that the effects of alternative monetary rules depend on what shocks affect the economy, the exchange rate regime, and the choice of inflation index. When the economy experiences productivity shocks, domestic iflation targeting is welfare-superior to other monetary rules. However, in the case of other shocks except productivity shock a managed exchange rate is the best policy rule. Finally, the results of welfare loss of alternative monetary policy rules allowed noticing the nature of the shocks affecting the economy dictate the implication and choice of the best monetary policy rule.

Separating Monetary and Structural Causes of Inflation

The paper employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) to model inflation so as to identify the relative importance of shocks to real output growth, monetary growth and exchange rate depreciation in inflation dynamics in developing countries using data from Ghana. The results show that either monetary growth or structural factors alone do not explain the inflation experience and that the structural factors dominate monetary growth in the inflation dynamics. There is a fairly strong feedback between inflation and exchange rate depreciation both of which have weak relationship with monetary growth. These suggest that policies that boost domestic supply and therefore reduce import demand will be more potent than direct monetary management to curb inflation in Ghana.

Simple Macroeconomic Policies and Welfare: A Quantitative Assessment

We quantitatively compare three macroeconomic policies in a cash-credit goods framework. The policies are: the optimal one; another one that fully smoothes out oscillations in output; and a simple one that prescribes constant values for tax and monetary growth rates. As often found in the related literature, the welfare gains or losses from changing from a given policy to another are small. We also show that the simple policy dominates the one that leads to constant output.

Analyzing Noisy Observation Game with Bayesian Iterative Conjectures Approach

This paper uses Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures approach to solve a noisy sequential game, that is, a sequential game with inaccurate observation clouded by noise. Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures requires players to form conjectures about the strategies of the other players, starting with first order uninformative conjectures and keep updating with game theoretic and statistical decision theoretic reasoning until a convergence of conjectures is achieved. The paper studies an inflationary expectation game where government sets the monetary growth rate which is inaccurately observed by the economic agents. Bayesian iterative conjectures approach generates unique equilibrium which allows insightful and interesting comparative static analysis. The paper also shows that if the statistical decision rule is unspecified in a complete and perfect information sequential game, then there is the issue of indeterminacy in equilibrium solution of such a game. In other words, the current understanding of sequential games as embodied by the solution method of backward induction is just one of the many possible answers. Finally, the paper proves that the Bayesian equilibrium by iterative conjectures approach is a Bayes (undominated) decision rule, attaining the supremum of the expected utility of the player making the inference.

Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues

We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is any substantial reason for modifying the current mainstream mode of policy analysis, which frequently does not consider monetary aggregates at all. We begin by considering the body of thought known as the "quantity theory of money." The quantity theory centers on the prediction that there will be a long-run proportionate reaction of the price level to an exogenous increase in the nominal money stock. The nominal homogeneity conditions that deliver the quantity-theory result are the same as those that deliver monetary neutrality, an important principle behind policy formulation. The quantity theory implies a ceteris paribus unitary relationship between inflation and money growth. Simulations of a New Keynesian model suggest that we should expect this relationship to be apparent in time series data, with no heavy averaging or filtering required, but with allowance needed for the phase shift in the relationship between monetary growth rates and inflation. While financial innovation can obscure the relationship between monetary growth and inflation, evidence of a money growth/inflation relationship does emerge from U.S. time series and G7 panel data. Various considerations suggest that studies of inflation and monetary policy behavior can benefit from including both interest rates and money in the empirical analysis.

A Search Model of Unemployment and Inflation*

This paper introduces money into the standard labor-matching model. A double-coincidence problem makes money necessary as a medium of exchange. In the long run, a rise in the growth rate of money leads to higher inflation and higher unemployment, such that the long-run Phillips curve is not vertical. The optimal monetary growth rate decreases with greater worker bargaining power, the level of unemployment benefits, and the payroll tax rate.

Velocity Volatility Assessment of Monetary Shocks on Cash-in-Advance Economies

A projection method employing finite elements and a parameterized expectations algorithm is proposed for the global approximation of the equilibrium of a cash-in-advance model economy. The algorithm is shown to be accurate and efficient approximating highly nonlinear regions of the policy functions, specifically along the space of state variables where the slackness multiplier of the cash-in-advance constraint alternates between zero and strictly positive values. This favorable trait allows for a rigorous analysis on the variability of velocity of money. Velocity volatility, measured by its coefficient of variation, arises in the model on a consumption smoothing purpose by the agent at instances where the variation of expected marginal utility of consumption is relatively high due to the realization of a sufficiently low serially correlated monetary shock. In a simulation of the stochastic economic environment responding to a Markovian series of monetary growth rates and no frictions present, the equilibrium approximated via the proposed numerical solution method explains 80.3% of the velocity variability recently observed in the data; a significant improvement over previous attempts found in the literature.

Friedman meets Becker and Mulligan in a monetary neoclassical growth model

We study a neoclassical growth model with the time preference determined by resources spent on imagining future pleasures along the line of Becker and Mulligan (Q J Econ 112:729–758, 1997). We introduce money into the economy via a cash-in-advance constraint and study the effect of higher seignorage taxes or higher monetary growth rates on capital, consumption and welfare in the long run. We find that if the fraction of investment constrained by cash is smaller than a threshold, the negative-monetary-growth Friedman (The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, 1969) rule does not hold and the optimal inflation rate is positive. Calibrating our model yields a mild optimal inflation rate per annum with a switch from zero inflation to optimal inflation creating a sizable welfare gain in terms of consumption equivalence.

Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues

We consider what, if any, relationship there is between monetary aggregates and inflation, and whether there is any substantial reason for modifying the current mainstream mode of policy analysis, which frequently does not consider monetary aggregates at all. We begin by considering the body of thought known as the 'quantity theory of money.' The quantity theory centers on the prediction that there will be a long-run proportionate reaction of the price level to an exogenous increase in the nominal money stock. The nominal homogeneity conditions that deliver the quantity-theory result are the same as those that deliver monetary neutrality, an important principle behind policy formulation. The quantity theory implies a ceteris paribus unitary relationship between inflation and money growth. Simulations of a New Keynesian model suggest that we should expect this relationship to be apparent in time series data, with no heavy averaging or filtering required, but with allowance needed for the phase shift in the relationship between monetary growth rates and inflation. While financial innovation can obscure the relationship between monetary growth and inflation, evidence of a money growth/inflation relationship does emerge from U.S. time series and G7 panel data. Various considerations suggest that studies of inflation and monetary policy behavior can benefit from including both interest rates and money in the empirical analysis.

Marshallian time preferences and monetary non-neutrality

With the introduction of Marshallian recursive preferences to the Sidrauski model, this paper re-examines the effects of monetary growth on the economy. It is found that an increase in the monetary growth rate decreases the steady-state value of capital stock, consumption, and real balance holding. Short-run analysis presents the mechanism that inflation affects the economy: An increase in the monetary growth rate leads to an increase of initial consumption and reduction of initial savings, which increases the instantaneous time preference rate and makes people less patient initially. Finally, Friedman's optimal monetary growth rule is also investigated in this paper.

A Search Model of Unemployment and Inflation

In this paper, I introduce money in the standard labor-matching model (Mortensen and Pissarides 1999, Pissarides 2000). A double coincidence problem makes Fiat Money necessary as a medium of exchange. In the long-run, a rise in the rate of money growth leads to higher inflation and higher unemployment, so the long-run Phillips curve is not vertical. The optimal monetary growth rate decreases with the workers’ bargaining power, the level of unemployment benefits and the payroll tax rate.

P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan

The P-star inflation model is based on the long-term quantity theory of money and puts together the long-term determinants of the price level and the short-run changes in current inflation. The P-star model-based indicator has replaced the previous monetary policy procedures in a number of countries because it offers by far more information and predictive power than monitoring movements in money supply and the rate of monetary growth. In this paper we used the P-star model to calculate the leading indicator of inflation, and also to test the forecasting performance of the P-star model-based leading indicator of inflation. The results of the study show that compared to the simple autoregressive model and the M2 growth augmented model, the P-star model can be used to obtain the leading indicator of inflation in Pakistan because it has additional information about the future rate of inflation. Therefore, this paper provides a useful tool to the policy-makers to assess the future movement of inflation in Pakistan..

The Success of the Fed and the Death of Monetarism

Monetarists blamed fluctuations in inflation on excessively volatile growth in monetary aggregates. The data supported this hypothesis until 1982. Since 1983 monetary aggregates have been essentially uncorrelated with subsequent inflation in the US. Kochin (1973) argued that well designed monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between any measure of monetary policy and subsequent inflation. We modify Kochin's criterion showing that if the effects of fluctuations in monetary aggregates were not precisely known then optimal policy would produce negative correlations between monetary aggregates and inflation. We find that in the period 1960-1982 the variance in the growth rate of monetary base in the US was too large and in fact destabilizing. However, from 1983 to 2003 variations in the monetary base growth rate were just right. In both periods the fluctuations in the federal funds rate were too small since federal funds rate in both periods was positively correlated with subsequent inflation. The fluctuations in the federal funds rate were close to optimal size during 1983-2003. Using a similar criterion we could not reject the idea that deviations from the Taylor Rule in the federal funds rate were of optimal size in both periods.