Momentum Profits Research Articles

Decomposing momentum: The forgotten component

We split up the standard momentum return over months t−12 to t−2 at the highest stock price within this formation period. Of the overall momentum profits in month t, 84% can be attributed to the return prior to this peak price although research has exclusively focused on the post-peak return so far. The return predictability of the forgotten component is consistent with investor underreaction as underlying mechanism. Contrary to standard momentum strategies, the corresponding long-short returns are positively skewed, avoid momentum crashes, show no market state dependence, and yield consistent return premiums in both the US and international stock markets.

Nominal price illusion, return skewness, and momentum

We document a significantly negative association between the nominal price measure of Birru and Wang (2015) and the profit of the stock momentum strategy. The negative relationship is driven by the underperformance of loser stocks with high nominal price illusions. Further analysis shows that the previously documented positive correlations between return skewness measures and momentum profit are subsumed by the effect of nominal price on momentum profit.

Chasing Winners in the Gray Wave: Aging Population and Its Effects on Long-Horizon Momentum Profits

The momentum effect is postulated to be a consequence of the disposition effect, which in turn, is a result of the interplay between the typically dominant diminishing sensitivity feature of prospect theory and the loss aversion feature. However, studies have shown that older individuals can exhibit a reverse disposition effect due to their heightened loss aversion compared to younger individuals. This paper hypothesizes that as the population ages, the disposition effect of the average investor starts to diminish, thereby inducing a corresponding weakening of the momentum effect. We find empirical evidence showing that the long-horizon momentum profits are negatively related to changes in the proportion of the older population.

Frog in the Pan and the market-state effect on momentum

Momentum profitability depends on the market state, with protracted market gains (UP state) heralding momentum profits and prolonged market declines (DOWN state) ushering momentum losses. Previous literature documents a monotonic negative relationship between information discreteness and momentum, consistent with the Frog in the Pan (FIP) hypothesis. This study shows that the relationship is exclusive to UP markets. Outlier-based aggregate discreteness measures indicate that information reaches investors with higher discreteness in DOWN than UP markets, consistent with the absence of momentum profitability in DOWN markets according to the FIP hypothesis.

Aggregate volatility risk and momentum returns

AbstractMomentum stocks are exposed to aggregate volatility risk. This paper estimates an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model of market volatility to introduce a new volatility risk factor. Winners have negative loadings on this factor, whereas losers have positive loadings. Because volatility risk carries a negative price of risk, the new factor explains 73% of momentum profits. The paper rationalizes the volatility risks of momentum portfolios using growth option arguments and explains why momentum profits are short‐lived, depend on market states, and concentrate among firms with high idiosyncratic volatility. Results are robust to controlling for other risk factors and using alternative estimation procedures.

Revisiting time series momentum in China's commodity futures market: Evidence on sources of momentum profits

Revisiting time series momentum in China's commodity futures market: Evidence on sources of momentum profits

Momentum, reversals and liquidity: Indian evidence

This paper addresses three interesting questions. First, we explore whether price momentum exists for equities listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Second, whether liquidity (measured by turnover ratio) enhances the momentum effect. Third, whether momentum profits exhibit reversals for illiquid stocks. Using a large sample of 3956 stocks for the period 2000 to 2021, we establish three key results. First, we find evidence of significant price momentum (intermediate and long-term) for equities listed on the BSE. Second, when conditioned on liquidity, we find that the momentum returns (short, intermediate, and long-term) are more significant for the most liquid portfolio and exhibit persistence for the next 12 months. Third, although we document evidence of short and intermediate-term reversals among the most illiquid portfolios, we fail to find evidence of persistence. Our results continue to hold after controlling for risk factors related to market premium, firm size, value, and a host of macroeconomic indicators. Taken together, our paper highlights the role of liquidity in amplifying the momentum effect in the Indian market.

Overcoming Arbitrage Limits: Option Trading and Momentum Returns

AbstractMomentum profits depend mainly on the short leg and therefore on barriers to short sales. Our research indicates that the decline in momentum profitability in the past 2 decades is driven partly by a contemporaneous growth in stock options trading. Stock options offer an alternative to short selling, augmenting the stock lending market, and thereby contributing to improved pricing efficiency. The resulting reduction in barriers to short sales contributes to lower returns to momentum trading from the short leg. Our results persist after matching stocks with and without options based on different firm-level characteristics.

The Effect of the Movement in 52-Week High on Momentum Profit: The Evidence from Taiwan

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the impact of price movements in 52-week highs on a 52-week high momentum strategy. This study refers to the upward or downward movement in 52- week highs as an updating effect and determines how this effect influences the profitability of the original 52-week high momentum strategy. Design/methodology/approach: This paper decomposes the ratio of stock price to 52-week high into denoted two components: price change and updating components. We construct two momentum strategies, each focusing on adjusting either the price change or the updating component. Additionally, we employ a portfolio approach and Fama-MacBeth regression analysis to investigate the profitability of each proposed momentum strategy. Findings: The empirical results reveal that removing the price change component (updating component) from the original 52-week high measure can increases (decreases) the momentum profit, implying that the updating component dominates the price change component. Moreover, our analysis shows that when a high ratio of stock price to 52-week high is driven by a downward updating event, the subsequent positive momentum for a winner portfolio is more substantial. Research limitations/implications: This paper investigates the influence of 52-week highs movement on momentum strategies, utilizing data from Taiwan stock market. The findings reveal that accounting for the updating effect of 52-week highs can enhance the profitability of the original momentum strategy. However, it is important to note that this conclusion is currently limited to relatively inefficient stock markets. The impact on relatively efficient markets remains an area that requires further research for a comprehensive understanding. Originality/value: The finance literature widely acknowledges the 52-week high price as a reference point that can impact investors' trading psychology. Numerous empirical studies have confirmed the profitability of the 52-week high momentum investing strategy. However, these studies have not thoroughly explored the implications and effects of price movements within the scope of a 52-week high momentum strategy. Taking behavioral perspectives into account, this paper considers that the updating of 52-week high prices can influence investors' attention and subsequently impact the profitability of the momentum strategy.

Why momentum concentrates among overvalued stocks?

Abstract We uncover a link between momentum and overvaluation: assets that generate strong momentum profits have lower risk-adjusted unconditional returns; conversely, trading momentum within overvalued assets doubles the profit of the standard momentum strategy. We compute the profits of a momentum strategy within various portfolios; portfolios within which momentum is profitable are defined as momentum trading opportunity (MTO). High-MTO assets have negative unconditional alphas and concentrate in the short legs of most anomalies; controlling for MTO reduces anomaly alphas by up to half. These results imply that the existence of other anomalies is closely linked to the existence of momentum and they should be studied jointly.

Cross-stock momentum and factor momentum

Cross-stock momentum builds on the asymmetry in lead-lag linkages and the difference between long-run and short-run contemporaneous co-movements. Data-driven cross-stock linkages generate a monthly alpha of 1.62% (t-stat=10.03). The asymmetry distinguishes cross-stock momentum from factor momentum, and industry momentum is not subsumed by factor momentum. Factor momentum profit is mostly due to the high cross-stock links. The data-driven linkages vary faster over time than those in previous studies because short-run co-movements incorporate persistent linkages.

Foreign institutions, local investors and momentum trading

We study momentum and contrarian trading of foreign and local institutions as well as local individuals using a unique ownership dataset from the Australian stock market. We find that foreign institutions are momentum investors, whereas local investors are contrarians. However, momentum trading by foreign institutions is reversed during the Global Financial Crisis indicating that their trading behavior is time-varying. We further show that momentum trading by foreign institutions decreases following a period of low market return, high market illiquidity, high market volatility, or high volatility of the momentum portfolio. Also, momentum trading by foreign institutions predicts momentum profits. We show that the disposition effect partly explains the contrarian trading by local investors, suggesting that foreign institutions’ tendency to momentum trading cannot be solely attributed to their liquidity provision to local investors.

Mechanisms of overpricing: An investigation on momentum crashes

This paper documents asymmetric overpricing for loser stocks across business cycle. In time of normal market conditions, we find strong interactions among key factors in determining momentum strength, and they are subject to significant investor attention. By contrast, during periods of poor market conditions, many of these interactions are not observed, suggesting that overpricing errors for loser stocks are generally weaker due to the lack of investor confidence and funding liquidity issue. A cross-sectional sample selection based on overpricing mechanism of loser stocks suggests that the damaged from momentum crashes can be eased and momentum profits can be significantly enhanced.

영구적·일시적 현금흐름 뉴스와 할인율 뉴스에 따른 모멘텀 수익률 분석

In this paper, unexpected market excess returns are decomposed into permanent cash-flow news, temporary cash-flow news, and discount-rate news by using a log-linear SVAR model, and the profitability of momentum strategies is analyzed under these news states. The empirical results are as follow. Frist, Momentum returns exist in the US stock market. Second, momentum profitability exists under both permanent and temporary cash-flow news states. This supports the results of Celiker et al. (2016) that momentum profitability exists in the US stock market under cash flow news states. Third, the momentum effect is strong even under the discount-rate news. Finally, Momentum profitability is stronger when the overall market is in an up market. In other words, when the market is up, investors tend to be overconfident, which creates momentums. This paper can analyze which factors play an important role in determining momentum returns by estimating permanent and temporary cash-flow news and discount-rate news by using the developed news decomposition method.

Revisiting the momentum effect in Taiwan: The role of persistency

The Taiwan stock market has been widely documented as a remarkable exception to the momentum phenomenon. We show evidence that a high turnover rate exists for winner and loser portfolios, which in turn attenuates momentum profits in this market. Nevertheless, a persistency-based momentum strategy that involves buying persistent winners and short-selling persistent losers generates significant profits in the intermediate term, and thus claims a momentum effect for this market. Further analysis indicates that momentum persistency is positively associated with investors' heterogeneous beliefs. Finally, the persistency-based momentum strategy is robustly profitable for international markets, especially those without the momentum effect.

Price behavior of small-cap stocks and momentum: A study using principal component momentum

This study analyzes why the negative momentum effect appears in Asian (China, Japan, Korea) stock markets, contrary to the U.S. market. We use principal component momentum (PMOM), a newly devised momentum measure. The PMOM is constructed by extracting commonalities from traditional momentum measures using principal component analysis. The results show evidence of positive and negative momentum profits in the U.S. and Asian markets, respectively. Negative momentum profits in Asian markets are attributable to the strong performance reversal of small stocks in the loser portfolio. Conversely, the positive momentum profits of the U.S. market are driven by the performance continuity of small stocks in the winner portfolio. The PMOM strategy is significantly more advantageous than traditional momentum strategies, based on the economic and statistical perspectives of momentum profits. These results are robust to changes in empirical designs.

Outliers and momentum in the corporate bond market

How we filter outliers matters in empirical research. As a demonstration, we analyze how momentum returns respond to different outlier treatments in the corporate bond market TRACE database. We find that momentum profitability depends crucially on return outliers. Specifically, outlier trimming vanishes momentum returns, whereas winsorization yields a robust but conservative assessment of the momentum effect. Positive outliers are better than negative ones at identifying bonds that display return continuation and, thus, yield momentum gains. Price and volume-based sample treatments show that momentum gains stem from low-priced bonds and bonds solely traded by retail investors. Lastly, finer partitions of the bond cross-section deliver superior momentum gains without sacrificing portfolio diversification over bonds and issuers.

Commodity momentum: A tale of countries and sectors

This paper takes a cross-country and cross-sector perspective to investigate the drivers of commodity momentum strategies. Commodity momentum strategies deployed in the U.S. and Chinese markets generate positive average returns with non-negligible correlations, but their premia are primarily local, and their return characteristics are distinct. A prevalent sector effect explains a significant fraction of momentum profits in both markets, suggesting that long-short commodity futures momentum may be riskier than previously thought. Overall, our findings suggest commodity momentum is more consistent with a risk-based explanation in U.S. markets whereas risk alone is difficult to capture the premia in China.

Momentum and reversal: information from prior returns

ABSTRACT This paper studies the joint dynamics of momentum and reversal strategies. Momentum investors face uncertainty about whether past patterns of price movements will continue (momentum) or turn over (reversal), thereby increasing volatility of momentum returns and occasionally leading to momentum crashes. We argue that the forces driving reversal over momentum tend to be strong if losers’ past returns are extremely low (in the time-series) or if losers are small and illiquid (in the cross-section). We subsequently propose new risk-managed momentum strategies by taking into account behavioural divergence between momentum and reversal in an effort to boost momentum profits and reduce volatility. Empirical tests for the U.S. stock market in the sample period of 1947 to 2015 document that momentum strategies in which investors implement stop-trading rules if losers’ past returns are extremely low as well as buy-small-loser rules substantially outperform traditional momentum strategies. International stock markets and robustness checks confirm our U.S. tests. Importantly, we find that outperformance is mainly attributable to the increase in abnormal returns (i.e. alpha) from various factor models.

Profitability of momentum investing strategies in an emerging market

This paper examines the profitability of momentum strategies on the Nigerian stock market over a 20-year period, from 1996 to 2016, using all listed equities on the Nigeria Exchange Limited (NGX) All Share Index. It also evaluates whether or not the profitability of momentum strategies is conditional upon the state of the market. A momentum strategy creates and buys a portfolio of past winners and short-sells a portfolio of past losers to generate excess profit. Our result shows that the Nigerian stock market exhibits medium-term price momentum, with eight out of sixteen strategies recording statistically significant excess momentum returns. The main contribution to the profit is from investing in winner portfolios, all of which recorded positive returns, and mostly significant. Evidence also shows that momentum profits depend on the state of the market. The momentum effect follows the UP market with a mean return of 0.2938%, while it is insignificant in the DOWN market with a mean return of -0.0237%. This paper offers valuable insight into market behavior, highlights the opportunities for alpha generation, and contributes to our understanding of market efficiency in emerging markets.