Moist Static Energy Budget Analysis Research Articles

Interannual Variability of the Australian Summer Monsoon Sustained through Internal Processes: Wind–Evaporation Feedback, Dynamical Air–Sea Interaction, and Soil Moisture Memory

Abstract In northern Australia (NAUS), mean rainfall during the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) season exhibits distinct interannual variability despite weak influence from tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The present study investigates mechanisms for the strong and persistent rainfall anomalies throughout the AUSM season. When the AUSM is stronger than normal, the low-level monsoonal circulation intensifies in response to the stronger convective activity over NAUS. The intensified surface westerlies over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) enhance oceanic evaporation locally and downstream moisture transport into NAUS. This wind–evaporation feedback is verified through a moist static energy budget analysis. For this feedback to work effectively, SST cooling due to the stronger AUSM should be weak enough not to suppress the oceanic evaporation in the tropical SEIO. Our mixed layer heat budget analysis based on an ocean model hindcast experiment reveals that anomalous downwelling in the subsurface SEIO, which is induced dynamically by the intensified monsoon westerlies, partially offsets the SST cooling. The land surface evaporation over the continental inland area is also enhanced significantly in the middle and later portions of the monsoon season associated with increased soil moisture, suggesting its memory effect for the persistence of rainfall anomalies. The AUSM variability can therefore be regarded as a self-sustaining internal variability in the atmosphere–ocean–land surface coupled system, rather than just an atmospheric internal variability. Significance Statement We aim to understand why summer monsoon rainfall in northern Australia varies markedly from one year to another even under the weak influence of large-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations, such as El Niño/La Niña. Our analyses based mainly on observational datasets reveal that wind-induced changes in oceanic evaporation south of Java significantly modulates the water vapor transport into northern Australia. We also find that ocean dynamics helps this wind–evaporation feedback process and continental soil moisture may act to prolong anomalous rainfall by its memory effect. This study shows the self-sustaining nature of the Australian summer monsoon variability under the atmosphere–ocean–land surface interactions, which deepens our understandings of the monsoon system.

Assessing the Impact of Ocean In Situ Observations on MJO Propagation Across the Maritime Continent in ECMWF Subseasonal Forecasts

AbstractDespite the well‐recognized initial value nature of the subseasonal forecasts, the role of subsurface ocean initialization in subseasonal forecasts remains underexplored. Using observing system experiments, this study investigates the impact of ocean in situ data assimilation on the propagation of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events across the Maritime Continent in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) subseasonal forecast system. Two sets of twin experiments are analyzed, which only differ on the use or not of in situ ocean observations in the initial conditions. Besides using the Real‐time Multivariate MJO Index (RMMI) to evaluate the forecast performance, we also develop a new MJO tracking method based on outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRa) for forecast evaluation. We find that the ocean initialization with in situ data assimilation, though having an impact on the forecasted ocean mean state, does not improve the relatively low MJO forecast skill across the Maritime Continent. Moist static energy budget analysis further suggests that a significant underestimation in the meridional moisture advection in the model forecast may hinder the potential role played by the ocean state differences associated with data assimilation. Bias of the intraseasonal meridional winds in the model is a more important factor for such underestimation than the mean state moisture biases. This finding suggests that atmospheric model biases dominate the forecast error growth, and the atmospheric circulation bias is one of the major sources of the MJO prediction error and should be a target for improving the ECMWF subseasonal forecast model.

The MJO on the Equatorial Beta Plane: An Eastward-Propagating Rossby Wave Induced by Meridional Moisture Advection

AbstractLinearized wave solutions on the equatorial beta plane are examined in the presence of a background meridional moisture gradient. Of interest is a slow, eastward-propagating n = 1 mode that is unstable at planetary scales and only exists for a small range of zonal wavenumbers (). The mode dispersion curve appears as an eastward extension of the westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave solution. This mode is therefore termed the eastward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave (ERW). The zonal wavenumber-2 ERW horizontal structure consists of a low-level equatorial convergence center flanked by quadrupole off-equatorial gyres, and resembles the horizontal structure of the observed MJO. An analytic, leading-order dispersion relationship for the ERW shows that meridional moisture advection imparts eastward propagation, and that the smallness of a gross moist stability–like parameter contributes to the slow phase speed. The ERW is unstable near planetary scales when low-level easterlies moisten the column. This moistening could come from either zonal moisture advection or surface fluxes or a combination thereof. When westerlies instead moisten the column, the ERW is damped and the westward-propagating long Rossby wave is unstable. The ERW does not exist when the meridional moisture gradient is too weak. A moist static energy budget analysis shows that the ERW scale selection is partly due to finite-time-scale convective adjustment and less effective zonal wind–induced moistening at smaller scales. Similarities in the phase speed, preferred scale, and horizontal structure suggest that the ERW is a beta-plane analog of the MJO.

The impact of coupled data assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation predictability initialized from coupled satellite-era reanalysis

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of coupled initialization on the extended-range prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A set of reforecasts using combinations of the oceanic and atmospheric initial conditions produced with coupled and uncoupled data assimilation (DA) are conducted to evaluate the impact of coupling in the different domains, from the perspective of MJO forecasts. The coupled initial conditions are provided by CERA-SAT pilot coupled reanalysis for the satellite era recently produced by ECMWF. We focus on the prediction skill of the MJO using the Real-time Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) MJO index in a series of re-forecasts. The impact of atmospheric initial conditions produced by coupled DA shows slight benefit for the MJO prediction. However, compared with the operational ocean reanalysis, the ocean initial conditions created by CERA-SAT degrade the MJO prediction skill during the first 2-3 weeks of the re-forecast by 1.5% to 5.8%. A moist static energy budget analysis revealed that the underestimation of 0.2 K sea surface temperature, 1.4 W m-2 top of atmosphere downward longwave radiation, and 3.8 W m-2 latent heat flux over the Maritime Continent lead to small but statistically significant degradation of the MJO forecast skill. The results demonstrate that the MJO is sensitive to ocean initial conditions, and illustrate the value of the extended range MJO prediction for evaluating the quality of coupled data assimilation, and suggest that future efforts on coupled data assimilation pay special attention to the balance of air-sea interaction processes over the warm pool area, in terms of modeling, observational needs and system.

Reexamining the Moisture Mode Theories of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Based on Observational Analyses

AbstractTwo existing moisture mode theories of the MJO, one emphasizing boundary layer moisture asymmetry (MA) and the other emphasizing column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) tendency asymmetry (TA), were validated with the diagnosis of observational data during 1979–2012. A total of 2343 MJO days are selected. While all these days show a clear phase leading of the boundary layer moisture, 20% of these days do not show a positive column-integrated MSE tendency in front of MJO convection (non-TA). A further MSE budget analysis indicates that the difference between the non-TA composite and the TA composite lies in the zonal extent of anomalously vertical overturning circulation in front of the MJO convection. A background mean precipitation modulation mechanism is proposed to explain the distinctive circulation responses. Dependent on the MJO location, an anomalous Gill response to the heating is greatly modulated by the seasonal mean and ENSO induced precipitation fields. Despite the negative MSE tendency in front of MJO convection in the non-TA group, the system continues moving eastward due to the effect of the boundary layer moistening, which promotes a convectively unstable stratification ahead of MJO convection. The analysis result suggests that the first type of moisture mode theories, the moisture asymmetry mechanism, appears more robust, particularly over the eastern Maritime Continent and western Pacific.

Amplified tropical Pacific rainfall variability related to background SST warming

Previous studies have found that under global warming, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related rainfall variability will become enhanced over the tropical central-eastern Pacific and weakened over the western Pacific. The climatological sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern exhibits a warming center in the equatorial eastern Pacific in projections. How this pattern contributes to projected changes in ENSO-driven rainfall variability has not been fully addressed. Here, we use “time-slice” experiments to investigate the response of interannual variability in tropical Pacific rainfall in boreal winter to a warming background SST and associated physical mechanisms. A high-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Model is driven by the detrended observational SST (1979–2003) plus a warming pattern from the coupled model under the A1B emission scenario (2075–2099). The results show that precipitation interannual variability over the tropical central-eastern Pacific will be enhanced more than the surrounding regions under warming, which is mostly contributed by a faster increase in rainfall amount during the El Niño year relative to non-El Niño years. Based on a moisture budget analysis, both the dynamic and thermodynamic components in the vertical advection of climatological specific humidity contribute to the enhancement of El Niño-induced precipitation anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific where the dynamic effect is dominant. Moist static energy budget analysis further illustrates that vertical velocity is enhanced due to the increased transport of moist static energy from the lower troposphere into the middle-upper troposphere and the intensified warming effect of cloud longwave radiation caused by the increase of high cloud amount and altitude.

Moist Static Energy Budget Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models

Abstract Tropical cyclone intensification processes are explored in six high-resolution climate models. The analysis framework employs process-oriented diagnostics that focus on how convection, moisture, clouds, and related processes are coupled. These diagnostics include budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy, where the column integral is performed between fixed pressure levels. The latter allows for the quantification of the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclone spinup, including surface flux feedbacks and cloud-radiative feedbacks. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are tracked in the climate model simulations and the analysis is applied along the individual tracks and composited over many TCs. Two methods of compositing are employed: a composite over all TC snapshots in a given intensity range, and a composite over all TC snapshots at the same stage in the TC life cycle (same time relative to the time of lifetime maximum intensity for each storm). The radiative feedback contributes to TC development in all models, especially in storms of weaker intensity or earlier stages of development. Notably, the surface flux feedback is stronger in models that simulate more intense TCs. This indicates that the representation of the interaction between spatially varying surface fluxes and the developing TC is responsible for at least part of the intermodel spread in TC simulation.

Zonal‐mean circulation response to reduced air–sea momentum roughness

The impact of uncertainties in surface‐layer physics on the atmospheric general circulation is comparatively unexplored. Here, the sensitivity of the zonal‐mean circulation to reduced air–sea momentum roughness (Z0m) at low flow speed is investigated with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3). In an aquaplanet framework with prescribed sea‐surface temperatures, the response to reduced Z0m resembles the La Niña minus El Niño response to El Niño Southern Oscillation variability, with (i) a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies extending all the way to the surface, (ii) a weak poleward shift of the subtropical descent region and (iii) a weakening of the Hadley circulation, which is generally also accompanied by a poleward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical surface easterlies. Mechanism‐denial experiments show this response to be initiated by the reduction of tropical latent and sensible heat fluxes, effected by reducing Z0m. The circulation response is elucidated by considering the effect of the tropical energy fluxes on the Hadley circulation strength, the upper tropospheric critical‐layer latitudes and the lower tropospheric baroclinic eddy forcing. The ITCZ shift is understood via moist static energy budget analysis in the Tropics. The circulation response to reduced Z0m carries over to more complex set‐ups with seasonal cycle, full complexity of atmosphere–ice–land–ocean interaction and a slab ocean lower boundary condition. Hence, relatively small changes in the surface parametrization parameters can lead to a significant circulation response.

A Moist Static Energy Budget Analysis of Quasi-2-Day Waves Using Satellite and Reanalysis Data

Abstract A moist static energy (MSE) budget analysis is applied to quasi-2-day waves to examine the effects of thermodynamic processes on the wave propagation mechanism. The 2-day waves are defined as westward inertia–gravity (WIG) modes identified with filtered geostationary infrared measurements, and the thermodynamic parameters and MSE budget variables computed from reanalysis data are composited with respect to the WIG peaks. The composite horizontal and vertical MSE structures are overall as theoretically expected from WIG wave dynamics. A prominent horizontal MSE advection is found to exist, although the wave dynamics is mainly regulated by vertical advection. The vertical advection decreases MSE around the times of the convective peak, plausibly resulting from the first baroclinic mode associated with deep convection. Normalized gross moist stability (NGMS) is used to examine the thermodynamic processes involving the large-scale dynamics and convective heating. NGMS gradually decreases to zero before deep convection and reaches a maximum after the convection peak, where low (high) NGMS leads (lags) deep convection. The decrease in NGMS toward zero before the occurrence of active convection suggests an increasingly efficient conversion from convective heating to large-scale dynamics as the wave comes in, while the increase afterward signifies that this linkage swiftly dies out after the peak.

Responses of Tropical Deep Convection to the QBO: Cloud-Resolving Simulations

Abstract Observational studies suggest that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can modulate tropical deep convection. The authors use a cloud-resolving model with a limited domain, representing a convective column in the tropics, to study the mechanisms of this modulation. The large-scale circulation is parameterized using the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation, under which the parameterized large-scale vertical motion acts to relax the horizontal-mean temperature toward a specified reference profile. Temperature variations typically seen in easterly and westerly phases are imposed in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere of this reference profile. The responses of convection are studied over different sea surface temperatures, holding the reference temperature profile fixed. This can be thought of as studying the response of convection to the QBO over different “relative SSTs” and also corresponds to different equilibrium precipitation rates in the control simulation. The equilibrium precipitation rate shows slight increases in response to a QBO easterly phase temperature perturbation over small SST anomalies and strong decreases over large SST anomalies, and vice versa for the QBO westerly phase perturbation. A column moist static energy budget analysis reveals that the QBO modulates the convective precipitation through two pathways: it changes the high-cloud properties and thus the column radiative cooling, and it alters the shape of the large-scale vertical motion and thus the efficiency of energy transport by the large-scale flow. The nonmonotonicity of the precipitation response with respect to relative SST results from the competition of these two effects.

Column-Integrated Moist Static Energy Budget Analysis on Various Time Scales during TOGA COARE

Abstract Moist static energy (MSE) budgets on different time scales are analyzed in the TOGA COARE data using Lanczos filters to separate variability with different frequencies. Four different time scales (~2-day, ~5-day, ~10-day, and MJO time scales) are chosen based on the power spectrum of the precipitation and previous TOGA COARE studies. The lag regression-slope technique is utilized to depict characteristic patterns of the variability associated with the MSE budgets on the different time scales. This analysis illustrates that the MSE budgets behave in significantly different ways on the different time scales. On shorter time scales, the vertical advection acts as a primary driver of the recharge–discharge mechanism of column MSE. As the time scale gets longer, in contrast, the relative contributions of the other budget terms become greater, and consequently, on the MJO time scale all the budget terms have nearly the same amplitude. Specifically, these results indicate that horizontal advection plays an important role in the eastward propagation of the MJO during TOGA COARE. On the MJO time scale, the export of MSE by the vertical advection is in phase with the precipitation. On shorter time scales, the vertical velocity profile transitions from bottom heavy to top heavy, while on longer time scales, the shape becomes more constant and similar to a first-baroclinic-mode structure. This leads to a more-constant gross moist stability on longer time scales, which the authors estimate.

South Asian Summer Monsoon and the Eastern Mediterranean Climate: The Monsoon–Desert Mechanism in CMIP5 Simulations

Abstract Dry summers over the eastern Mediterranean are characterized by strong descent anchored by long Rossby waves, which are forced by diabatic heating associated with summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia. The large-scale teleconnection between rising and subsiding air masses is referred to as the “monsoon–desert mechanism.” This study evaluates the ability of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models in representing the physical processes involved in this mechanism. An evaluation of statistics between summer climatologies of monsoon diabatic heating and that of vertical velocity over the eastern Mediterranean suggests a linear relationship. Despite large spatial diversity in monsoon heating, descent over the Mediterranean is coherently located and realistic in intensity. To measure the sensitivity of descent to the diversity in the horizontal and vertical distribution of monsoon heating, a series of linear atmosphere model experiments are performed. It is shown that column-integrated heating over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea provides the largest descent with a more realistic spatial pattern. In the vertical, CMIP5 models underestimate the diabatic heating at upper levels, while they overestimate it at lower levels, resulting in a weaker forced response and weaker associated descent over the Mediterranean. A moist static energy budget analysis applied to CMIP5 suggests that most models capture the dominant role of horizontal temperature advection and radiative fluxes in balancing descent over the Mediterranean. Based on the objective analysis herein, a subset of models is identified that captures the teleconnection for reasons consistent with observations. The recognized processes vary at interannual time scales as well, with imprints of severe weak/strong monsoons noticeable over the Mediterranean.

Impact Mechanisms of Shallow Cumulus Convection on Tropical Climate Dynamics*

Abstract Subtropical shallow cumulus convection is shown to play an important role in tropical climate dynamics, in which convective mixing between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free troposphere initiates a chain of large-scale feedbacks. It is found that the presence of shallow convection in the subtropics helps set the width and intensity of oceanic ITCZs, a mechanism here termed the shallow cumulus humidity throttle because of the control exerted on the moisture supply to the deep convection zones. These conclusions are reached after investigations based on a tropical climate model of intermediate complexity, with sufficient vertical degrees of freedom to capture (i) the effects of shallow convection on the boundary layer moisture budget and (ii) the dependency of deep convection on the free-tropospheric humidity. An explicit shallow cumulus mixing time scale in this simple parameterization is varied to assess sensitivity, with moist static energy budget analysis aiding to identify how the local effect of shallow convection is balanced globally. A reduction in the mixing efficiency of shallow convection leads to a more humid atmospheric mixed layer, and less surface evaporation, with a drier free troposphere outside of the convecting zones. Advection of drier free-tropospheric air from the subtropics by transients such as dry intrusions, as well as by mean inflow, causes a substantial narrowing of the convection zones by inhibition of deep convection at their margins. In the tropical mean, the reduction of convection by this narrowing more than compensates for the reduction in surface evaporation. Balance is established via a substantial decrease in tropospheric temperatures throughout the Tropics, associated with the reduction in convective heating. The temperature response—and associated radiative contribution to the net flux into the column—have broad spatial scales, while the reduction of surface evaporation is concentrated outside of the convecting zones. This results in differential net flux across the convecting zone, in a sense that acts to destabilize those areas that do convect. This results in stronger large-scale convergence and more intense convection within a narrower area. Finally, mixed layer ocean experiments show that in a coupled ocean–atmosphere system this indirect feedback mechanism can lead to SST differences up to +2 K between cases with different shallow cumulus mixing time, tending to counteract the direct radiative impact of low subtropical clouds on SST.

Dynamics of the West African Monsoon under Mid-Holocene Precessional Forcing: Regional Climate Model Simulations

Abstract The African Humid Period (AHP), about 14 800 yr ago [14.8–5.5 ka (ka ≡ 1000 yr ago)], was a time of increased humidity over Africa. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that the West African summer monsoon was stronger and more extensive 6 ka than today, and that the Saharan Desert was green. Here, a regional climate model that produces an excellent simulation of today’s climate over northern Africa is used to study the dynamics of the monsoon 6 ka. Changes in insolation, atmospheric CO2, and vegetation are used to impose 6-ka conditions, and the role of each forcing is isolated. Vegetation is not interactive, and the large-scale circulation and SSTs are fixed at present-day values for the 6-ka simulations. The regional model produces precipitation increases across the Sahel and Sahara that are in good agreement with the paleodata. However, unobserved drying is simulated over the Guinean coast region where paleodata are sparse. Precipitation increases in the Sahel are related to a northward shift of the monsoon, the elimination of the African easterly jet, and an intensification and deepening of the low-level westerly jet on the west coast. The thermal low–Saharan high system of the present-day climate is replaced by a deep thermal low. When this system becomes fully developed in midsummer, cyclonic circulations transport moisture north into the Sahara, and rainfall increases there. Surface temperatures decrease despite the increased solar forcing 6 ka because of an increase in cloudiness. A moist static energy budget analysis shows that increased low-level moisture dominates the cooling to destabilize the vertical column and enhance convection. Even though solar forcing is the ultimate cause of the AHP, the model responds more strongly to the vegetation forcing, especially early in the summer season, emphasizing the importance of vegetation in maintaining the intensified monsoon system.