Potential Vorticity Modification Research Articles

Interaction of microphysics and dynamics in a warm conveyor belt simulated with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) produce a major fraction of precipitation in extratropical cyclones and modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. Diabatic processes, in particular associated with cloud formation, influence the cross-isentropic ascent of WCBs into the upper troposphere and additionally modify the potential vorticity (PV) distribution, which influences the larger-scale flow. In this study we investigate heating and PV rates from all diabatic processes, including microphysics, turbulence, convection, and radiation, in a case study that occurred during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) campaign using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) modeling framework. In particular, we consider all individual microphysical process rates that are implemented in ICON's two-moment microphysics scheme, which sheds light on (i) which microphysical processes dominate the diabatic heating and PV structure in the WCB and (ii) which microphysical processes are the most active during the ascent and influence cloud formation and characteristics, providing a basis for detailed sensitivity experiments. For this purpose, diabatic heating and PV rates are integrated for the first time along online trajectories across nested grids with different horizontal resolutions. The convection-permitting simulation setup also takes the reduced aerosol concentrations over the North Atlantic into account. Our results confirm that microphysical processes are the dominant diabatic heating source during ascent. Near the cloud top longwave radiation cools WCB air parcels. Radiative heating and corresponding PV modification in the upper troposphere are non-negligible due to the longevity of the WCB cloud band. In the WCB ascent region, the process rates from turbulent heating and microphysics partially counteract each other. From all microphysical processes condensational growth of cloud droplets and vapor deposition on frozen hydrometeors most strongly influence diabatic heating and PV, while below-cloud evaporation strongly cools WCB air parcels prior to their ascent and increases their PV value. PV production is the strongest near the surface with substantial contributions from condensation, melting, evaporation, and vapor deposition. In the upper troposphere, PV is reduced by diabatic heating from vapor deposition, condensation, and radiation. Activation of cloud droplets as well as homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing processes have a negligible diabatic heating contribution, but their detailed representation is important for, e.g., hydrometeor size distributions. Generally, faster-ascending WCB trajectories are heated markedly more than more slowly ascending WCB trajectories, which is linked to larger initial specific humidity content providing a thermodynamic constraint on total microphysical heating. Yet, the total diabatic heating contribution of convectively ascending trajectories is relatively small due to their small fraction in this case study. Our detailed case study documents the effect of different microphysical processes implemented in ICON's two-moment scheme for heating and PV rates in a WCB from a joint Eulerian and Lagrangian perspective. It emphasizes the predominant role of microphysical processes and provides a framework for future experiments on cloud microphysical sensitivities in WCBs.

Systematic assessment of the diabatic processes that modify low-level potential vorticity in extratropical cyclones

Abstract. Diabatic processes significantly affect the development and structure of extratropical cyclones. Previous studies quantified the dynamical relevance of selected diabatic processes by studying their influence on potential vorticity (PV) in individual cyclones. However, a more general assessment of the relevance of all PV-modifying processes in a larger ensemble of cyclones is currently missing. Based on a series of twelve 35 d model simulations using the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study systematically quantifies the diabatic modification of positive and negative low-level PV anomalies along the cold front, warm front, and in the center of 288 rapidly intensifying extratropical cyclones. Diabatic PV modification is assessed by accumulating PV tendencies associated with each parametrized process along 15 h backward trajectories. The primary processes that modify PV typically remain temporally consistent during cyclone intensification. However, a pronounced case-to-case variability is found when comparing the most important processes across individual cyclones. Along the cold front, PV is primarily generated by condensation in half of the investigated cyclones in the cold season (October to March). For most of the remaining cyclones, convection or long-wave radiative cooling is the most important process. Similar results are found in the warm season (April to September); however, the fraction of cyclones with PV generation by convection as the most important process is reduced. Negative PV west of the cold front is primarily produced by turbulent mixing of momentum, long-wave radiative heating, or turbulent mixing of temperature. The positive PV anomaly at the warm front is most often primarily generated by condensation in the cold season and by turbulent mixing of momentum in the warm season. Convection is the most important process only in a few cyclones. Negative PV along the warm front is primarily produced by long-wave radiative heating, turbulent mixing of temperature, or melting of snow in the cold season. Turbulent mixing of temperature becomes the primary process in the warm season, followed by melting of snow and turbulent mixing of momentum. The positive PV anomaly in the cyclone center is primarily produced by condensation in most cyclones, with only few cases primarily associated with turbulent mixing or convection. A composite analysis further reveals that cyclones primarily associated with PV generation by convection exhibit a negative air–surface temperature difference in the warm sector, which promotes a heat flux directed into the atmosphere. These cyclones generally occur over warm ocean currents in the cold season. On the other hand, cyclones that occur in a significantly colder environment are often associated with a positive air–surface temperature difference in the warm sector, leading to PV generation by long-wave radiative cooling. Finally, long-wave radiative heating due to a negative air–surface temperature difference in the cold sector produces negative PV along the cold and warm front, in particular in the cold season.

Potential-vorticity dynamics of troughs and ridges within Rossby wave packets during a 40-year reanalysis period

Abstract. Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are fundamental to midlatitude dynamics and govern weather systems from their individual life cycles to their climatological distributions. Renewed interest in RWPs as precursors to high-impact weather events and in the context of atmospheric predictability motivates this study to revisit the dynamics of RWPs. A quantitative potential-vorticity (PV) framework is employed. Based on the well-established PV thinking of midlatitude dynamics, the processes governing RWP amplitude evolution comprise group propagation of Rossby waves, baroclinic interaction, the impact of upper-tropospheric divergent flow, and direct diabatic PV modification by nonconservative processes. An advantage of the PV framework is that the impact of moist processes is more directly diagnosed than in alternative, established frameworks for RWP dynamics. The mean dynamics of more than 6000 RWPs from 1979–2017 are presented using ERA5 data, complemented with nonconservative tendencies from the Year of Tropical Convection data (available 2008–2010). Confirming a pre-existing model of RWP dynamics, group propagation within RWPs is consistent with linear barotropic theory, and baroclinic and divergent amplifications occur most prominently during the mature stage and towards the trailing edge of RWPs. Refining the pre-existing model, the maximum of divergent amplification occurs in advance of maximum baroclinic growth, and baroclinic interaction tends to weaken RWP amplitude towards the leading edge. “Downstream baroclinic development” is confirmed to provide a valid description of RWP dynamics in both summer and winter, although baroclinic growth is substantially smaller (about 50 %) in summer. Longwave radiative cooling makes a first-order contribution to ridge and trough amplitude, with the potential that this contribution is partly associated with cloud-radiative effects. The direct impact of other nonconservative tendencies, including latent heat release, is an order of magnitude smaller than longwave radiative cooling. Arguably, latent heat release still has a substantial impact on RWPs by invigorating upper-tropospheric divergence. The divergent flow amplifies ridges and weakens troughs. This impact is of leading order and larger than that of baroclinic growth. To the extent that divergence is associated with latent heat release below, our results show that moist processes contribute to the well-known asymmetry in the spatial scale of troughs and ridges. For ridges, divergent amplification is strongly coupled to baroclinic growth and enhanced latent heat release. We thus propose that the life cycle of ridges is best described in terms of downstream moist-baroclinic development. Consistent with theories of moist-baroclinic instability, both the amplitude and the relative location of latent heat release within the developing wave pattern depend on the state of the baroclinic development. Taking this “phasing” aspect into account, we provide some evidence that variability in the strength of divergent ridge amplification can predominantly be attributed to variability in latent heat release below rather than to secondary circulations associated with the dry dynamics of a baroclinic wave.

Observations and simulation of intense convection embedded in a warm conveyor belt – how ambient vertical wind shear determines the dynamical impact

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are dynamically important, strongly ascending and mostly stratiform cloud-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. Despite the predominantly stratiform character of the WCB's large-scale cloud band, convective clouds can be embedded in it. This embedded convection leads to a heterogeneously structured cloud band with locally enhanced hydrometeor content, intense surface precipitation and substantial amounts of graupel in the middle troposphere. Recent studies showed that embedded convection forms dynamically relevant quasi-horizontal potential vorticity (PV) dipoles in the upper troposphere. Thereby one pole can reach strongly negative PV values associated with inertial or symmetric instability near the upper-level PV waveguide, where it can interact with and modify the upper-level jet. This study analyzes the characteristics of embedded convection in the WCB of cyclone Sanchez based on WCB online trajectories from a convection-permitting simulation and airborne radar observations during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) field campaign (intense observation periods, IOPs, 10 and 11). In the first part, we present the radar reflectivity structure of the WCB and corroborate its heterogeneous cloud structure and the occurrence of embedded convection. Radar observations in three different sub-regions of the WCB cloud band reveal the differing intensity of its embedded convection, which is qualitatively confirmed by the ascent rates of the online WCB trajectories. The detailed ascent behavior of the WCB trajectories reveals that very intense convection with ascent rates of 600 hPa in 30–60 min occurs, in addition to comparatively moderate convection with slower ascent velocities as reported in previous case studies. In the second part of this study, a systematic Lagrangian composite analysis based on online trajectories for two sub-categories of WCB-embedded convection – moderate and intense convection – is performed. Composites of the cloud and precipitation structure confirm the large influence of embedded convection: intense convection produces very intense local surface precipitation with peak values exceeding 6 mm in 15 min and large amounts of graupel of up to 2.8 g kg−1 in the middle troposphere (compared to 3.9 mm and 1.0 g kg−1 for the moderate convective WCB sub-category). In the upper troposphere, both convective WCB trajectory sub-categories form a small-scale and weak PV dipole, with one pole reaching weakly negative PV values. However, for this WCB case study – in contrast to previous case studies reporting convective PV dipoles in the WCB ascent region with the negative PV pole near the upper-level jet – the negative PV pole is located east of the convective ascent region, i.e., away from the upper-level jet. Moreover, the PV dipole formed by the intense convective WCB trajectories is weaker and has a smaller horizontal and vertical extent compared to a previous NAWDEX case study of WCB-embedded convection, despite faster ascent rates in this case. The absence of a strong upper-level jet and the weak vertical shear of the ambient wind in cyclone Sanchez are accountable for the weak diabatic PV modification in the upper troposphere. This implies that the strength of embedded convection alone is not a reliable measure for the effect of embedded convection on upper-level PV modification and its impact on the upper-level jet. Instead, the profile of vertical wind shear and the alignment of embedded convection with a strong upper-level jet play a key role for the formation of coherent negative PV features near the jet. Finally, these results highlight the large case-to-case variability of embedded convection not only in terms of frequency and intensity of embedded convection in WCBs but also in terms of its dynamical implications.

Quantifying the role of individual diabatic processes for the formation of PV anomalies in a North Pacific cyclone

Processes that do not conserve potential vorticity (PV) have a profound impact on the intensity, evolution, and mesoscale details of extratropical weather systems. This study aims at quantifying and improving the understanding of how and when physical processes modify PV in cyclones. To this end, a 6‐day forecast of a North Pacific cyclone is performed using a recent operational version of the ECMWF global numerical weather prediction model. Hourly instantaneous temperature and momentum tendencies of each parametrized process are used to compute the corresponding PV tendencies. By integrating these diabatic PV rates along backward trajectories, the relative contribution of individual processes for the PV budget can be assessed. The cold front is characterized by an elongated filament of increased PV, generated by latent heating due to condensation at the front as well as long‐wave radiative cooling at the surface. Turbulent mixing at the interface of the boundary layer decreases PV behind the cold front during the early stage of the cyclone, while sublimation of snow produces negative PV in the mature phase. A broad region of enhanced PV is found along the warm front, generated by condensation and turbulence at the front as well as long‐wave radiative cooling at the surface. The region of decreased PV north of the warm front is mainly modified by snow melting and sublimation. Finally, high values of PV along the bent‐back front and the cyclone centre are generated by condensation, convection, snow melting and sublimation. In general, turbulent mixing offsets intense PV modification induced by the other processes. This study highlights the relevance of condensation, melting and sublimation of snow, long‐wave radiative cooling, turbulence, and convection for the production of low‐level PV anomalies and underlines the importance of correctly representing these processes in weather prediction models.

Modification of Potential Vorticity near the Tropopause by Nonconservative Processes in the ECMWF Model

AbstractThe upper-level potential vorticity (PV) structure plays a key role in the evolution of extratropical weather systems. PV is modified by nonconservative processes, such as cloud latent heating, radiative transfer, and turbulence. Using a Lagrangian method, material PV modification near the tropopause is attributed to specific parameterized processes in the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In a case study, several flow features identified in a vertical section across an extratropical cyclone experienced strong PV modification. In particular clear-air turbulence at the jet stream is found to be a relevant process (i) for the PV structure of an upper-level front–jet system, corroborating previous observation-based findings of turbulent PV generation; (ii) for the purely turbulent decay of a tropopause fold, identified as an effective process of stratosphere–troposphere exchange; and (iii) in the ridge, where the Lagrangian accumulated turbulent PV modification exhibits a distinct vertical pattern, potentially impacting the strength of the tropopause inversion layer. In contrast, cloud processes affect the near-tropopause PV structure above a warm conveyor belt outflow in the ridge and above cold-sector convection. In agreement with previous studies, radiative PV production dominates in regions with an anomalously low tropopause, where both radiation and convection act to increase the vertical PV gradient across the tropopause. The particular strengths of the Lagrangian diagnostic are that it connects prominent tropopause structures with nonconservative PV modification along the flow and that it quantifies the relative importance of turbulence, radiation, and cloud processes for these modifications.

Potential vorticity diagnostics based on balances between volume integral and boundary conditions

Taking advantage of alternative expressions for potential vorticity (PV) in divergence forms, we derive balances between volume integral of PV and boundary conditions, that are then applied to practical computations of PV:•We propose a new method for diagnosing the Ertel potential vorticity from model output, that preserves the balances;•We show how the expression of PV can be derived in general coordinate systems. This is here emphasised with isopycnic coordinates by generalising the PV expression to the general Navier-Stokes equations;•We propose a generalised derivation for the Haynes-McIntyre impermeability theorem, which highlights the role of the bottom boundary condition choice (e.g. no-slip vs free-slip) and mixing near the bottom boundary for the volume integral of PV.The implications of balances between volume integral of PV and boundary conditions are then analysed for specific processes at various scales:•At large scale, we show how an integral involving surface observations (derived from satellite observations) is linked to the integral of PV within a layer (between two isopycnals). This surface integral can be calculated for models and observations and can be used for validation;•At mesoscale or sub-mesoscale, we analyse the relationship between net PV anomalies and net surface density anomalies for idealised vortices and 2D fronts. This can help determining vortex or jet structures for idealised studies or empirical methodologies;•We also confirm and integrate previous results on the modification of PV within a bottom boundary layer into a single diagnostic taking into account the effect of density and velocity modifications by diabatic processes along the topography and diapycnal mixing within the boundary layer.

Potential Vorticity Diagnostics to Quantify Effects of Latent Heating in Extratropical Cyclones. Part I: Methodology

Abstract Extratropical cyclones develop because of baroclinic instability, but their intensification is often substantially amplified by diabatic processes, most importantly, latent heating (LH) through cloud formation. Although this amplification is well understood for individual cyclones, there is still need for a systematic and quantitative investigation of how LH affects cyclone intensification in different, particularly warmer and moister, climates. For this purpose, the authors introduce a simple diagnostic to quantify the contribution of LH to cyclone intensification within the potential vorticity (PV) framework. The two leading terms in the PV tendency equation, diabatic PV modification and vertical advection, are used to derive a diagnostic equation to explicitly calculate the fraction of a cyclone’s positive lower-tropospheric PV anomaly caused by LH. The strength of this anomaly is strongly coupled to cyclone intensity and the associated impacts in terms of surface weather. To evaluate the performance of the diagnostic, sensitivity simulations of 12 Northern Hemisphere cyclones with artificially modified LH are carried out with a numerical weather prediction model. Based on these simulations, it is demonstrated that the PV diagnostic captures the mean sensitivity of the cyclones’ PV structure to LH as well as parts of the strong case-to-case variability. The simple and versatile PV diagnostic will be the basis for future climatological studies of LH effects on cyclone intensification.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

Early Evolution of the 23–26 September 2012 U.K. Floods: Tropical Storm Nadine and Diabatic Heating due to Cloud Microphysics

AbstractMajor river flooding affected the United Kingdom in late September 2012 as a slow-moving extratropical cyclone brought over 100 mm of rain to a large swath of northern England and north Wales, with local accumulations approaching 200 mm. The cyclone developed on 20–22 September following the interaction between an equatorward-moving potential vorticity (PV) streamer and Tropical Storm Nadine, near the Azores. A plume of tropical moisture was drawn poleward ahead of the PV streamer over a low-level baroclinic zone, allowing deep convection to develop. Convectively driven latent heat release reduced upper-tropospheric PV near the streamer, causing it to fracture and cut off from the reservoir of high PV over the United Kingdom. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with 4-km horizontal grid spacing in which microphysical heating and cooling tendencies are set to zero, alongside calculations of instantaneous diabatic heating rates and PV tendencies along trajectories, reveal that deposition heating contributed strongly to the fracturing of the PV streamer into a discrete anomaly by directly reducing upper-tropospheric PV to the streamer’s east. Condensation heating contributed to lower-tropospheric PV generation along the cold front as the cyclone developed, while cooling due to sublimation, evaporation, and melting modified the PV much less strongly. The results of this case study show that the collocation of strong deposition heating with positive absolute vorticity in the upper troposphere can lead to substantial PV modification and a very different cyclone evolution to that when deposition heating is suppressed.

The non‐conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes

Numerical models of the atmosphere combine a dynamical core, which approximates solutions to the adiabatic, frictionless governing equations for fluid dynamics, with tendencies arising from the parametrization of other physical processes. Since potential vorticity (PV) is conserved following fluid flow in adiabatic, frictionless circumstances, it is possible to isolate the effects of non‐conservative processes by accumulating PV changes in an air‐mass‐relative framework. This ‘PV tracer technique’ is used to accumulate separately the effects on PV of each of the different non‐conservative processes represented in a numerical model of the atmosphere. Dynamical cores are not exactly conservative because they introduce, explicitly or implicitly, some level of dissipation and adjustment of prognostic model variables which acts to modify PV. Here, the PV tracers technique is extended to diagnose the cumulative effect of the non‐conservation of PV by a dynamical core and its characteristics relative to the PV modification by parametrized physical processes.Quantification using the Met Office Unified Model reveals that the magnitude of the non‐conservation of PV by the dynamical core is comparable to those from physical processes. Moreover, the residual of the PV budget, when tracing the effects of the dynamical core and physical processes, is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the PV tracers associated with the most active physical processes. The implication of this work is that the non‐conservation of PV by a dynamical core can be assessed in case‐studies with a full suite of physics parametrizations and directly compared with the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. The non‐conservation of PV by the dynamical core is shown to move the position of the extratropical tropopause while the parametrized physical processes have a lesser effect at the tropopause level.

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper‐level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case‐study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320 K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby‐wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high‐resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS‐15, suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short‐range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences between proxy and forecast were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main ascending air masses within extratropical cyclones. They often exhibit strong condensation and precipitation, associated with ascent on large scales or embedded convection. Most of the air outflows into the upper troposphere as part of a ridge. Such ridges are an integral part of Rossby waves propagating along the tropopause and are identified with a negative potential vorticity (PV) anomaly and associated anticyclonic circulation. It has been argued that diabatic modification of PV in WCBs has an important influence on the extent of the ridge, propagation of Rossby waves and weather impacts downstream.Following the coherent ensemble of trajectories defining a WCB, PV is expected to increase with time while below the level of maximum latent heating and then decrease as trajectories ascend above the heating maximum. In models, it is found that the net change is approximately zero, so that the average PV of the WCB outflow is almost equal to the PV of its inflow. Here, the conditions necessary for this evolution are explored analytically using constraints arising from the conservation of circulation. It is argued that the net PV change is insensitive to the details of diabatic processes and the PV maximum midway along a WCB depends primarily on the net diabatic transport of mass from the inflow to the outflow layer. The main effect of diabatic processes within a WCB is to raise the isentropic level of the outflow, rather than to modify PV.

Perturbing the potential vorticity field in mesoscale forecasts of two Mediterranean heavy precipitation events

ABSTRACTIn order to improve the quality of the Mediterranean high-impact weather (HIW) numerical predictions, this study proposes to modify the potential vorticity (PV) field of the model initial state, taking advantage of information provided by the water vapour (WV) channel of the METEOSAT-7 satellite. The implemented PV field modifications aim to reduce the mismatch between the upper-level PV features and the WV brightness temperatures guided by the known relation between these two fields (PV-WV technique). The PV-WV technique effectiveness is evaluated on two HIW events, and is also compared with two additional PV modification techniques from an earlier study. The chosen episodes occurred on 9–10 June 2000 and 9–10 October 2002 and produced heavy precipitation over both Spain and France. The main difference between these two episodes is found in the driving mechanism, a mesoscale cyclone for the June 2000 event and a larger low-pressure centre for the October 2002 case. The two additional PV modification techniques introduce perturbations along the zones highlighted by the MM5 adjoint model calculated sensitivity zones (PV-adjoint) and along the three-dimensional PV structure presenting the locally most intense values and gradients of the field (PV-gradient). A close examination of both case studies of the forecast rainfall fields and several objective verification indices show that the PV-WV technique performance exceeds the control (or non-perturbed) forecast skill while remaining inside the distribution obtained by both PV-gradient and PV-adjoint techniques. This PV-WV technique could be used to increase the ensemble spread introducing higher amplitude modifications. Thus, a more skilled ensemble prediction system could be built by taking advantage of the subjectivity inherent to this method (manual perturbations) and also of the uncertainty present in the initial state.

About the Reliability of Manual Model PV Corrections to Improve Forecasts

Abstract The National Weather Forecast Centre of Météo-France has developed a tool that corrects the state of the atmosphere within the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) operational global model by adjusting the potential vorticity when the initial conditions and available observations disagree. Among observational datasets, geostationary satellite data are the primary source of information. Here, the representation of the coherent structures of the tropopause in the model is assessed with Meteosat ozone and water vapor images. Modifications to the initial conditions of the potential vorticity (PV) in areas where the model fails can be applied using a potential vorticity inversion, thus providing a new balanced distribution of the wind and temperature that will then be used as a new initial state. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the degrees of weakness of the present qualitative approach. To this end, PV modifications to the initial conditions are applied by different experts on the eve of the windstorm Klaus (24 January 2009) that hit southwestern France. The different initial PV fields and the subsequent forecasts show significant differences in terms of wind and mean sea level pressure, while sharing some common features. The human modification process is therefore partially reproducible and skillful since the forecast is improved most of the time.

Friction and Diapycnal Mixing at a Slope: Boundary Control of Potential Vorticity

Abstract Although atmospheric forcing by wind stress or buoyancy flux is known to change the ocean’s potential vorticity (PV) at the surface, less is understood about PV modification in the bottom boundary layer. The adjustment of a geostrophic current over a sloped bottom in a stratified ocean generates PV sources and sinks through friction and diapycnal mixing. The time-dependent problem is solved analytically for a no-slip boundary condition, and scalings are identified for the change in PV that arises during the adjustment to steady state. Numerical experiments are run to test the scalings with different turbulent closure schemes. The key parameters that control whether PV is injected into or extracted from the fluid are the direction of the geostrophic current and the ratio of its initial speed to its steady-state speed. When the current is in the direction of Kelvin wave propagation, downslope Ekman flow advects lighter water under denser water, driving diabatic mixing and extracting PV. For a current in the opposite direction, Ekman advection tends to restratify the bottom boundary layer and increase the PV. Mixing near the bottom counteracts this restratification, however, and an increase in PV will only occur for current speeds exceeding a critical value. Consequently, the change in PV is asymmetric for currents of the opposite sign but the same speed, with a bias toward PV removal. In the limit of a large speed ratio, the change in PV is independent of diapycnal mixing.

Influence of microphysical processes on the potential vorticity development in a warm conveyor belt: a case‐study with the limited‐area model COSMO

AbstractThe potential vorticity (PV) in warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is strongly influenced by the latent heating associated with the various microphysical processes occurring during the formation of clouds. The first‐order effect is that PV increases below the level of maximum diabatic heating and decreases above. Thus, the WCB reaches the upper troposphere with low PV values and has the potential to influence the large‐scale dynamics. In order to quantify the influence of different microphysical processes on the diabatic heating rates (DHRs) and associated PV development during the ascent, a Lagrangian analysis is used and applied to a regional model simulation of a selected WCB event. First, the individual DHRs caused by the various microphysical processes are calculated with the COSMO model. Then, the DHRs and the associated changes in PV are evaluated along the WCB trajectories. The relative role of the different microphysical processes is quantified for the latent heating and the diabatic PV modification, for which the gradient of the latent heating and the absolute vorticity are crucially important. It is shown that condensation of vapour and depositional growth of snow each contribute ∼10 K to the total latent heating. However, the diabatic PV modification due to condensation is stronger since it occurs close to the cold frontal low‐level maximum of the z‐component of the absolute vorticity, ηz, whereas a similar heating rate gradient caused by depositional growth of snow modifies the PV much less since it occurs in a region with much weaker ηz. This highlights the importance of ηz for determining the PV modification due to a certain diabatic heating rate. Furthermore, cooling processes like the evaporation of rain, also co‐occurring with high ηz near the surface cold front, have the potential to strongly modify the PV below the WCB. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper‐tropospheric wave guide: a North Atlantic case‐study

AbstractThis study highlights the importance of diabatic processes for the complex interaction of weather systems in the North Atlantic–European sector during the week of 7–14 September 2008. A chain of events occurred including the extratropical transition (ET) of hurricane Hanna, a subsequently developing extratropical cyclone, the formation of an upper‐level potential vorticity (PV) streamer that protruded towards Europe and triggered intense rainfall, and the genesis of a Mediterranean cyclone. A PV perspective is adopted along with trajectory calculations to elucidate the diabatic modification of the midlatitude flow.Important diabatic PV modifications occurred at upper levels, associated with the cross‐isentropic transport of low‐PV air within warm conveyor belts (WCBs). These were diagnosed during the ET of Hanna and the development of the extratropical cyclone near Newfoundland. The WCBs contributed to the amplification of ridges downstream of each cyclone and to the subsequent elongation of Hanna's upstream trough into a PV streamer. This streamer eventually triggered the Mediterranean cyclogenesis. The second major effect of the diabatic processes occurred on smaller scales, in the low and middle troposphere. The remnants of Hanna's tropical PV core advected moist air towards the baroclinic zone leading to condensational PV production in the lower troposphere. In contrast, in the case of the extratropical cyclone, diabatic PV production occurred within its WCB at mid levels. These diagnostic analyses corroborate the potential of diabatic processes associated with extratropical flow systems for the modification of both the low‐level vortices and the upper‐level Rossby wave guide. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

A successful resimulation of the 7–8 January 2005 winter storm through initial potential vorticity modification in sensitive regions

A successful resimulation of the 7–8 January 2005 winter storm through initial potential vorticity modification in sensitive regions

A successful resimulation of the 78 January 2005 winter storm through initial potential vorticity modification in sensitive regions

In this study, we present an example of the benefit that can be achieved from carefully designed manual modification of a numerical weather prediction analysis. The case to be investigated is the severe winter storm of 7–8 January 2005, affecting the North Sea and southern Scandinavia. Modifications of potential vorticity (PV) fields according to features in water vapour (WV) images are combined with information from singular vectors (SV) in an attempt to improve the initial state over data sparse regions west of the British Isles. The apparent mismatch between features in the WV image and the upper level PV anomalies in the numerical analysis is corrected, mainly at levels indicated as sensitive by the fastest growing SVs, in order to maximize the impact on the simulation. Model reruns, based on the inverted corrected PV fields, were then performed. The manual correction of PV fields led to a substantial improvement of the simulations of the storm. The PV modifications were carried out by a digital analysis system, implemented at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. This system allows the PV modifications to be done interactively within an operational time limit.