Modes Of Atmospheric Circulation Research Articles

Multiple-Time-Scale Variations of the Record-Breaking Pre-Summer Rainfall over South China in 2022

Abstract South China encountered an exceptionally heavy pre-summer rainy season in 2022 with the regional precipitation ranking first in the past 44 years. This study aims to analyze the multiple-time-scale variations of precipitation in this pre-summer rainy season to shed light on the complex dynamics influencing pre-summer precipitation over South China. The findings reveal that the variation of precipitation was dominated by the 10–20-day oscillation during April–May, while interannual variation and trend during May–June. The 10–20-day oscillation of precipitation in pre-summer rainy season in South China demonstrates a strong association with cold-air activity, which can be traced back to the propagation of disturbances along a teleconnection, which represents the dominant mode of intraseasonal atmospheric circulation over Eurasia in high latitudes during April–May. This teleconnection plays a crucial role in facilitating cold-air invasion and triggering precipitation over East China and South China. The interannual component of abnormal precipitation is strong during May–June of 2022. It is primarily attributed to the abnormal highs in the lower troposphere over the subtropical western North Pacific and Japan. These abnormal highs are likely stimulated by the combined influences of Eurasian teleconnection propagation and cooling sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the third year of a consecutive La Niña event. However, the universality of the impact of Eurasian teleconnection propagation on the abnormal high over Japan on interannual scale necessitates further investigation. Furthermore, there is a significant upward trend in pre-summer rainfall over South China, accounting for 38% of the total anomaly observed in 2022.

Predictability of the atmospheric circulation patterns in Africa, south of the equator, using variations of the Southern Annular Mode and ENSO

The contribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to the variations of the leading modes of atmospheric circulation in Africa south of the equator, during austral summer (i.e., from December to March), is examined in this study. The rotated principal component analysis is applied to classify the leading modes of atmospheric circulation in the study region. The result showed that relatively, through the control of sea level pressure in the mid-latitudes, the SAM is more related to the variability of the austral summer leading modes of atmospheric circulation in the study region. Overall, during the analysis period, the SAM explained about 20% to 46% variance of the leading atmospheric circulation modes. ENSO rather explains up to about 10% to 20% of the variance. Due to the continuous nature of atmospheric circulation, incorporating the co-variability of the classified circulation patterns adds skill to the predictability of the classified leading modes. Overall, the joint variations of the SAM, ENSO, and other less frequent regional circulation patterns that are related to classified leading modes, explained up to 46% to 80% variance of the leading modes—which is indeed an added value in further considering the natural gradient of the classified circulation patterns.

Blocking Events in East Antarctica: Impact on Precipitation and their Association with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Modes

Abstract This study, utilizing ERA5 data from 1979 to 2021, identifies a prevalent occurrence of blocking events in East Antarctica, particularly in the region extending from Wilkes Land to Dronning Maud Land. The genesis of these blocking highs is typically facilitated by the intensification of Rossby waves within the circumpolar westerlies. By classifying the circulation patterns causing the blocking events, the blocking events in East Antarctica are divided into five categories. On the western flank of the blocking high, we observe the transportation of warm and humid air into inland Antarctica, instigating regional snowfall. High precipitation levels are observed in different regions based on the specific location of the blocking high. We also demonstrate that the contribution of atmospheric blockings to total annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events increases from coastal to inland. Over the East Antarctic plateau, the blockings are responsible for at least 15% of total accumulated snowfall and 30% of extreme precipitation events. Finally, we find a significant relationship between the interannual variability in East Antarctic blocking frequency and the phase variability of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A positive phase of the SAM inhibits an increase in blocking frequency, while a negative phase favors an increase. However, the two Pacific–South American patterns (PSA-1 and PSA-2), characterized by wave trains originating in the tropical Pacific that extend across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, do not significantly influence the interannual variability in East Antarctic blocking frequency.

Seasonal Dependence of the Pacific–North American Teleconnection Associated with ENSO and Its Interaction with the Annual Cycle

Abstract The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is one of the prominent atmospheric circulation modes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and its seasonal to interannual predictability is suggested to originate from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intriguingly, the PNA teleconnection pattern exhibits variance at near-annual frequencies, which is related to a rapid phase reversal of the PNA pattern during ENSO years, whereas the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific are evolving much slower in time. This distinct seasonal feature of the PNA pattern can be explained by an amplitude modulation of the interannual ENSO signal by the annual cycle (i.e., the ENSO combination mode). The ENSO-related seasonal phase transition of the PNA pattern is reproduced well in an atmospheric general circulation model when both the background SST annual cycle and ENSO SST anomalies are prescribed. In contrast, this characteristic seasonal evolution of the PNA pattern is absent when the tropical Pacific background SST annual cycle is not considered in the modeling experiments. The background SST annual cycle in the tropical Pacific modulates the ENSO-associated tropical Pacific convection response, leading to a rapid enhancement of convection anomalies in winter. The enhanced convection results in a fast establishment of the large-scale PNA teleconnection during ENSO years. The dynamics of this ENSO–annual cycle interaction fills an important gap in our understanding of the seasonally modulated PNA teleconnection pattern during ENSO years.

Reversing seasonality of Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode trend in the 21st century

AbstractThe Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical region. In the late 20th century, the SAM underwent a remarkable positive trend, with the strongest trend occurring in austral summer because of Antarctic ozone depletion. In this study, we quantitatively explore changes in the seasonality of the SAM trend under the background of ozone recovery. As expected, accompanied by ozone recovery since 2001, the summer SAM trend has decreased, thus reducing the seasonal difference in the SAM trend between summer and winter. However, what was not expected and found in this study is that the winter SAM has meanwhile shown an increasing positive trend in the early 21st century, which further reverses the seasonality of the SAM trend, leading to a stronger trend in winter rather than summer, which is different from the seasonality in the late 20th century. The reason underlying the winter SAM changes is explored from the perspective of natural variability. Winter SAM exhibits clear multidecadal variability, and the recent increasing trend is a part of multidecadal oscillation. The multidecadal variability of winter SAM may partly originate from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The seasonality of linear trend in extratropical surface climate also exhibits reversing characteristics since 2001. In the early 21st century, the acceleration of westerlies and the strengthening of Amundsen Sea Low are stronger in winter, reversing the previous seasonality in the late 20th century, in which the acceleration of westerlies and the strengthening of Amundsen Sea Low is stronger in summer.

Tree-ring δ18Ocellulose variations in two Nothofagus species record large-scaleclimatic signals in the South American sector of the Southern Ocean

In recent decades, southernmost South America (50–56° S) has experienced marked climate change (regional warming, decreased precipitation, reduced snow cover, and increased frequency of heat waves) related to variations in atmospheric circulation over varied timescales. In this paper, we develop oxygen isotopes from tree-ring cellulose (δ18OTRC) as a proxy for climate and atmospheric circulation in order to extend the regional meteorological record to deeper time intervals. Our work focuses on Nothofagus forests in two areas: (i) deciduous N. pumilio forest in the steppe transition zone near Punta Arenas and (ii) humid evergreen N. betuloides forest in the Navarino Island region. To investigate the potential for reconstructing palaeoclimate, δ18OTRC variations were correlated with local climate parameters as well as regional (Amundsen Sea Low, ASL) and hemispheric (Antarctic Oscillation, AAO) atmospheric circulation modes for the last 60 years. N. betuloides δ18OTRC variations show an overall positive trend, indicating isotopic enrichment over the study period, whereas no trend is recorded for the N. pumilio record. The strongest relationships with climate, together with the widest spatial representativeness, occur in the N. betuloides chronology during the growing season (spring to austral summer) and extend spatially from mid to high latitudes. In contrast, the sensitivity of the records is limited to summer months, and spatial correlations are much more limited. In addition, the N. betuloides record shows greater potential for reconstructing local climate features such as soil water (r = − 0.76), wind speed (r = 0.69), and precipitation (r = − 0.66), as well as regional (ASL, r = − 0.80) and hemispheric (AAO, r = 0.77) patterns of extratropical atmospheric circulation. Overall, we conclude that the N. betuloides record represents the most valuable tree-ring climate proxy for southernmost South America over past centuries.

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

Recent studies show an increase in the frequency of compound extremes in air temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world, especially under dry and hot conditions. Compound extremes have a significant impact on all spheres of human activity, such as health, agriculture, and energy. Features of atmospheric circulation are closely related to the occurrence of anomalies in air temperature and precipitation. The article analyzes the relationship of atmospheric circulation modes with compound extremes that have had the greatest impact on the Atlantic–European region over the territory of Eastern Europe over the past 60 years on extreme air temperature and precipitation. Combinations of extreme temperature and humidity conditions (indices)—cold-dry (CD), cold-wet (CW), warm-dry (WD) and warm-wet (WW)—were used as compound extremes. Indices of compound extremes were calculated according to the E-OBS reanalysis data. Estimates of the relationship between two time series were carried out using standard correlation and composite analyses, as well as cross wavelet analysis. Phase relationships and time intervals for different climatic indices were different. The period of most fluctuations in the indices of compound extremes was from 4 to 12 years and was observed during 1970–2000. The coherent fluctuations in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index occurred rather in phase, those in the time series of the CD and WD indices and the Arctic oscillation (AO) index occurred in antiphase, and those in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND) index occurred in antiphase. Statistically significant increase in the number of warm compound extremes was found for the northern parts of the study region in the winter season with positive NAO and AO phases.

Distinct Role of a Spring Atmospheric Circulation Mode in the Arctic Sea Ice Decline in Summer

AbstractA distinguishing feature of Arctic sea ice is the rapid declining in the Pacific Arctic Sector (PAS) in recent years. The atmospheric variability during spring (March‐May) plays a critical role in determining the sea ice extent (SIE) during the following summer. The summertime (June‐August) SIE reduction in the eastern part of PAS, including the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea, is strongly related to the first two leading atmospheric circulation modes in spring, the Arctic Oscillation and the Arctic Dipole, retrieved from empirical orthogonal function analysis. Here, we show that the third leading mode of atmospheric circulation in spring, namely the Barents‐Beaufort Oscillation (BBO), can also change the summer SIE, especially on the western regime of the PAS across the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. We find that a positive phase of springtime BBO (i.e., BBO+), relative to the BBO−, acts to decrease sea ice thickness via advection and generate sea ice deformation through divergence and shear processes, thereby preconditioning for a rapid sea ice loss within the PAS in the following summer. Furthermore, the occurrence of BBO is state‐dependent and potentially modulated by the phase shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Since the mid‐1990s, the AMO (PDO) index has changed from a dominant negative (positive) to a positive (negative) phase. These phase shifts in AMO and PDO would have contributed to the subsequently increased appearance of anomalous BBO+ after 2000 and enhanced the summertime sea ice loss in the western regions of the PAS in recent years.

Characteristic Features of the Antarctic Surface Air Temperature with Different Reanalyses and In Situ Observations and Their Uncertainties

Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) variability is characterized by strong seasonality and regionality, which are associated with the tropical–polar teleconnections and the radiative forcing caused by the concentration changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, the sparse in situ observations and the strong disagreement between different reanalysis datasets hinder coherent conclusions about Antarctic SAT variability. In this study, we use a newly developed statistical method, combined maximum covariance analysis (CMCA), to retrieve coherent SAT modes from six reanalysis datasets and 26 station observations. The results show that the Antarctic SAT variability may be dominated by a continental-wide warming/cooling mode, an East–West Antarctic seesaw mode, and a dipole SAT mode around West Antarctica. These SAT modes are strongly associated with three principal modes of Antarctic atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, all six reanalyses can represent these SAT modes well, compared with the observations, despite a clear deviation over the Antarctic Peninsula associated with the biases in the Foehn wind, which may not be clearly reproduced in a low-resolution reanalysis. This study provides an effective means by which to extract coherent signals from all reanalyses and observations to represent the Antarctic SAT variability, and to improve its predictability and projection.

A Shifting Tripolar Pattern of Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies During Multi‐Year La Niña Events

AbstractA 2,200‐year CESM1 pre‐industrial simulation is used to contrast Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variations between the first and second austral winters of multi‐year La Niñas. The typical SIC anomaly pattern induced by single‐year La Niñas appears only during the second austral winter of multi‐year La Niñas. A similar pattern, but zonally shifted compared to the typical one, is found during the first winter and exhibits a tripolar pattern with anomaly centers over the Ross, Amundsen‐Bellingshausen, and Weddell Seas. The shift is a result of the pre‐onset conditions associated with multi‐year La Niñas that excites unique atmospheric circulation modes during the first winter. The distinct zonally‐shifted SIC anomaly pattern is observed in four of the six multi‐year La Niña events during the period 1979–2020. These results suggest that it is helpful to separate La Niñas into single and multi‐year events to better understand the La Niña impacts on Antarctic climate.

Subseasonal controls of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

Landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) are the most devastating disaster to affect the U.S., while the demonstration of skillful subseasonal (between 10 days and one season) prediction of LTCs is less promising. Understanding the mechanisms governing the subseasonal variation of TC activity is fundamental to improving its forecast, which is of critical interest to decision-makers and the insurance industry. This work reveals three localized atmospheric circulation modes with significant 10–30 days subseasonal variations: Piedmont Oscillation (PO), Great America Dipole (GAD), and the Subtropical High ridge (SHR) modes. These modes strongly modulate precipitation, TC genesis, intensity, track, and landfall near the U.S. coast. Compared to their strong negative phases, the U.S. East Coast has 19 times more LTCs during the strong positive phases of PO, and the Gulf Coast experiences 4–12 times more frequent LTCs during the positive phases of GAD and SHR. Results from the GFDL SPEAR model show a skillful prediction of 13, 9, and 22 days for these three modes, respectively. Our findings are expected to benefit the prediction of LTCs on weather timescale and also suggest opportunities exist for subseasonal predictions of LTCs and their associated heavy rainfalls.

Last glacial loess dynamics in the Southern Caucasus (NE-Armenia) and the phenomenon of missing loess deposition during MIS-2

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 is considered the coldest, driest and stormiest period during the last Glacial-Interglacial cycle in large parts of Eurasia. This resulted from strongly decreased northern hemisphere temperature and related maximum extension of northern ice sheets that strongly reinforced large-scale circulation modes such as westerlies and East Asian Winter Monsoon driven by the Siberian High. Normally, this intensified circulation is reflected by maximum loess deposition in numerous loess regions spanning Europe and Asia. However, here we present a new loess record from the Caucasus region in NE-Armenia providing evidence in support of heavily reduced or even lacking loess formation during the MIS-2. Owing to implementations of comprehensible luminescence dating work and a provenance survey using rock magnetic and geochemical data, we are able to define distinct loess formation phases and to retrace sediment transport pathways. By comparing our results to other Eurasian palaeo-records, we unveil general atmospheric circulation modes that are most likely responsible for loess formation in the Southern Caucasus. Moreover, we try to test different scenarios to explain lacking loess formation during MIS-2. In line with other archive information, we suggest that loess formation was hampered by higher regional moisture conditions caused by a southward-shift of westerlies and renewed moisture absorption over the Black Sea. Our results show that modifications of MIS-2 circulation modes induced a very heterogeneous moisture distribution, particularly in the lower mid-latitudes of Eurasia producing a juxtaposition of very dry (morphodynamically active) and moderately dry (morphodynamically stable) areas.

On the representation of atmospheric circulation modes in regional climate models over Western Europe

AbstractAtmospheric circulation is a key driver of climate variability, and the representation of atmospheric circulation modes in regional climate models (RCMs) can enhance the credibility of regional climate projections. This study examines the representation of large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes in Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 RCMs once driven by ERA‐Interim, and by two general circulation models (GCMs). The study region is Western Europe and the circulation modes are classified using the Promax rotated T‐mode principal component analysis. The results indicate that the RCMs can replicate the classified atmospheric modes as obtained from ERA5 reanalysis, though with biases dependent on the data providing the lateral boundary condition and the choice of RCM. When the boundary condition is provided by ERA‐Interim that is more consistent with observations, the simulated map types and the associating time series match well with their counterparts from ERA5. Further, on average, the multi‐model ensemble mean of the analysed RCMs, driven by ERA‐Interim, indicated a slight improvement in the representation of the modes obtained from ERA5. Conversely, when the RCMs are driven by the GCMs that are models without assimilation of observational data, the representation of the atmospheric modes, as obtained from ERA5, is relatively less accurate compared to when the RCMs are driven by ERA‐Interim. This suggests that the biases stem from the GCMs. On average, the representation of the modes was not improved in the multi‐model ensemble mean of the five analysed RCMs driven by either of the GCMs. However, when the best‐performed RCMs were selected on average the ensemble mean indicated a slight improvement. Moreover, the presence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the simulated modes depends also on the lateral boundary conditions. The relationship between the modes and the NAO was replicated only when the RCMs were driven by reanalysis. The results indicate that the forcing model is the main factor in reproducing the atmospheric circulation.

Quasi-Biennial Variability of Indian Ocean Subtropical Mode Water Subduction Driven by Atmospheric Circulation Modes during the Argo Period

Abstract Argo data were used to investigate interannual variability in the subduction rate of the Indian Ocean Subtropical Mode Water (IOSTMW). The IOSTMW subduction rate in the southwestern part of the southern Indian Ocean subtropical circulation varies substantially from year to year without significant trend during the Argo period 2005–19. The variability of the IOSTMW subduction rate is quasi-biennial and dominated by the lateral induction term associated with the wintertime mixed layer depth (MLD). The contribution of vertical pumping to the change of subduction rate is relatively small. This variability in the subduction rate directly contributes to IOSTMW volume with a quasi-biennial variation. The quasi-biennial variations in the IOSTMW subduction and volume reflect the variability of the overlying atmosphere. The wintertime Mascarene high (MH) modulates the winter MLD in the subduction area through changes in heat fluxes and wind forcing. The quasi-biennial variability in MH is associated with the southern annular mode, but it was disturbed during two El Niño events in 2009 and 2015/16. Variability of the wintertime MH plays a key role in driving the quasi-biennial variability of the IOSTMW subduction during the Argo period.

A Synthesis of the Upper Arctic Ocean Circulation During 2000–2019: Understanding the Roles of Wind Forcing and Sea Ice Decline

Major changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean during 2000–2019, including the unprecedented spin-up of the Beaufort Gyre and the emergence of Arctic Atlantification in the eastern Eurasian Basin. We explored the main drivers for these changes by synthesizing numerical simulations and observations in this paper. The Arctic atmospheric circulation was unusual in some years in this period, with strongly negative wind curl over the Canada Basin. However, the wind-driven spin-up of the Beaufort Gyre would have been much weaker had it not been for Arctic sea ice decline. The sea ice decline not only fed the ocean with meltwater, but also made other freshwater components more available to the Beaufort Gyre through mediating the ocean surface stress. This dynamical effect of shifting surface freshwater from the Eurasian Basin towards the Amerasian Basin also resulted in the Arctic Atlantification in the eastern Eurasian Basin, which is characterized by halocline salinification and the uplift of the boundary between the halocline and the Atlantic Water layer. Contemporarily, the sea ice decline caused a strong warming trend in the Atlantic Water layer. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of Arctic annual sea surface height for this period reveals that the first two modes of the upper ocean circulation have active centers associated with the Arctic Oscillation and Beaufort High variability, respectively. In the presence of sea ice decline the first two EOFs can better distinguish the ocean variability driven by the two atmospheric circulation modes. Therefore, the major changes in the Arctic Ocean in the past two decades are indicators of climate change as is the sea ice retreat. Our synthesis could help assess how the Arctic Ocean might change in future warming climate.

Coupled mode of cloud, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice controlled by wave-3 pattern in Antarctic winter

This study examines coupled relationships among clouds, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice in Antarctic winter. We find that the wave-3 pattern dominates the leading covariability mode among cloud, atmospheric circulation, and sea ice. Both horizontal transport and vertical motion contribute to cloud formation, resulting in maximum cloud anomalies spatially between maximum meridional wind and pressure anomalies in the coupled system. The radiative effect of the clouds related to the wave-3 pattern can generate sea ice anomalies up to 12 cm thick in one month in the Amundsen Sea. It also strengthens the sea ice anomalies that are directly induced by low-level atmospheric circulation anomalies. In addition, the radiative forcing of the leading cloud mode in the lower troposphere is suppressed by the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of the circulation anomalies. These discoveries provide a better understanding of Antarctica’s interactive processes, and also offer physical evidence for climate model validations.

An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia

The leading mode of wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic-North Eurasia sector is dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and accounts for more than one third of the total variability. This study explores the influences of the leading mode on decadal climate variability of Northern Eurasia. We focus on the little-explored decadal covariations of surface air temperature (SAT), snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover over the region, using extensive model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project sixth phase. Recent decadal trends (−0.92σ per decade) in the leading mode identified, are found to be largely a manifestation of internal climate variability (at least two thirds from the most conservative estimate). These internally-generated decadal trends strongly contributed to recent trends in SAT, snowfall, SWE and snow cover over Eurasia. External forcings should have played a minor role over Eurasia as they usually suggest opposite decadal trends to those observed. An exception is found for snowfall and SWE in east Eurasia, for which external forcings may have driven a large part of the recent upward trends, equally as important as the NAO-dominated mode. This points to a complex interplay between internally-generated and externally-forced climate variability over Northern Eurasia. Model discrepancies are identified in reproducing the linkages between the leading mode and the Eurasian surface climate variability. The internally-generated variability of this leading mode thus represents a large source of uncertainty in future decadal climate projections over Eurasia and, due to the memory effects of snow, also in modelling springtime climate variability.

Contribution of the Southern Annular Mode to Variations in Water Isotopes of Daily Precipitation at Dome Fuji, East Antarctica

AbstractWater isotopes measured in Antarctic ice cores enable reconstruction at the first order of the past temperature variations. However, the seasonality of the precipitation and episodic events, including synoptic‐scale disturbances, influence the isotopic signals recorded in ice cores. In this study, we adopted an isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation model from 1981 to 2010 to investigate variations in climatic factors in δ18O of precipitation (δ18Op) at Dome Fuji, East Antarctica. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the primary mode of atmospheric circulation in the southern midhigh latitudes, significantly contributes to the isotope signals. Positive δ18Op anomalies, especially in the austral winter, are linked to the negative polarity of the SAM, which weakens westerly winds and increases the southward inflow of water vapor flux. Daily variations in temperature and δ18Op in Dome Fuji are significantly small in the austral summer, and their contribution to the annual signals is limited. The isotope signals driven by the SAM are a locational feature of Dome Fuji, related to the asymmetric component of the large‐scale atmospheric pattern.

Mechanisms of Regional Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic

AbstractThe Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to sea ice are driven by exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within and between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a combination of observations and output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we analyze and contrast present and future drivers of the regional winter sea ice cover. Consistent with observations and previous studies, we find that for the recent decades ocean heat transport though the Barents Sea and Bering Strait is a major source of sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic, respectively. Future projections show a gradually expanding footprint of Pacific and Atlantic inflows highlighting the importance of future Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean. While the dominant hemispheric modes of winter atmospheric circulation are only weakly connected to the sea ice, we find distinct local atmospheric circulation patterns associated with present and future regional sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, consistent with heat and moisture transport from lower latitudes. Even if the total freshwater input from rivers is projected to increase substantially, its influence on simulated sea ice is small in the context of internal variability.

Coupled Impacts of Atmospheric Circulation and Sea‐Ice on Late Pleistocene Terrigenous Sediment Dynamics in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean

AbstractProcesses controlling environmental change in the subarctic Pacific Ocean on millennial to orbital timescales are not well understood. Here we use a 230‐kyr sedimentary record from the northwest Pacific Ocean to assess the response of late Pleistocene sediment dynamics to orbital forcing. Combining a source‐to‐sink perspective based on sedimentological records with climate model reanalysis, we reveal that fluctuations in sediment provenance were closely linked to obliquity‐forced changes in atmospheric circulation modes. Specifically, the position of the Aleutian Low controlled sediment transport from the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc sources. Furthermore, a distinct shift in North Pacific ocean circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum may have been related to a strengthened Siberian High. The coincidence of atmospheric mode switches with changes in sea‐ice extent and North Pacific Intermediate Water formation in the marginal seas suggests that this coupled ocean‐atmosphere system may have acted as a regional amplifier of global climate variability.