The fossil leaf flora from the Shanwang Formation, Linqu County, Shandong Province, eastern China, is diverse, abundant, well preserved and discretely spaced, all of which make it suitable for the recognition and application of leaf physiognomic characters. This article is the first study of Chinese Tertiary floras using the CLAMP (Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program) approach. Numerous bedding planes yield leaf assemblages through over 20 m thickness of diatomaceous shales within the Middle Miocene Shanwang Formation. The diatomaceous shales, containing abundant fossils, have been divided into 19 units. A working platform (3×3 m) in the Diatomite Quarry of Shanwang was studied for about 3 months in 1998 and as many fossils as possible were recorded layer by layer. This collecting method, used for the first time in the history of Shanwang research, enabled us to record the presence or absence of megafossils in distinct units so that we could investigate leaf physiognomic characteristics and palaeoclimate for each time interval. Leaf fossils from six units (5, 6, 7, 13, 15 and 16) have been used to estimate palaeoclimate parameters of the Shanwang area using the CLAMP 3B dataset. The predicted climate is that of a lakeside setting, at over 1000 m above sea level and within the 17–15-Ma time interval. Meteorological factors have been estimated using the CLAMP approach, including mean annual temperature (MAT; 9.5–11.2°C), warmest month mean temperature (20.2–22.5°C), growing season length (5.9–6.8 months), mean growing season precipitation (83–165 cm) and relative humidity (73–79%). MAT estimates from leaf margin analysis (LMA) range from 12.5 to 15.2°C, which are a maximum of 4° higher than those from our CLAMP analyses and from previous results of LMA studies of the Shanwang flora (10–13°C). Nearest living relatives (NLR) of other biota (pollen, fish, insects, diatoms, microthyriaceous fungi, etc.) indicate warm and moist temperate to subtropical conditions in the Shanwang area during the Miocene. CLAMP predictions are similar to the climate predicted from NLRs although the MAT prediction is a few degrees cooler. The fact that the Shanwang leaf flora is from a lacustrine sequence may have biased the CLAMP analysis towards cooler (and possibly wetter) climates. The modern Yangtze River valley is a reasonable environmental analogue for the Shanwang Middle Miocene, though Shanwang may have had cooler summers, cooler MAT and less seasonality in rainfall. The climate was essentially constant during deposition of the sequence studied, with possible minor variations in precipitation.