Modern Climate Warming Research Articles

Changes in duration and intensity of waves of heat and cold on the territory of Belarus over the period from 1955 to 2021

The impact of modern climate warming on the characteristics of heat and cold waves on the territory of Belarus has been analysed. Since 1988, the number of heat waves and strong thaws has significantly increased (less than 15% of all registered heat waves and strong thaws occurred in the pre-warming period of 1955–1987), while the number of frost and summer cold waves has decreased. The average duration of frost and summer cold waves has decreased by 0.5–1.5 days, the average duration of strong thaws has increased by 1 day, while the changes in the duration of heat waves have been less significant. The greatest changes in temperature have been observed for strong thaws and frost waves (increase of up to 0.8°C). Heat waves are characterized by a decrease in the average duration by 1 day and the smallest temperature changes, because due to increase in average values, summer temperatures got closer to thresholds for a heat wave. Despite the effect of modern warming, frost waves remain the most intense type of extreme temperature episodes in Belarus. The spatial distribution of temperatures during heat and cold waves is either uniform or determined by seasonal temperature gradients.

СВЯЗИ МЕЖГОДОВЫХ ВАРИАЦИЙ СРЕДНЕМЕСЯЧНЫХ УРОВНЕЙ КАСПИЯ, А ТАКЖЕ СУММ АТМОСФЕРНЫХ ОСАДКОВ В ЕГО БАССЕЙНЕ И ИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ПРИ СОВРЕМЕННОМ ПОТЕПЛЕНИИ КЛИМАТА

In the modern period, the level of the Caspian Sea water surface is rapidly decreasing, which creates significant problems for the population and economy of all countries of the Caspian region. Therefore, improvement of the methods for forecasting its further changes is an urgent problem of hydrology, meteorology and ecology. It is generally accepted that the main reasons for the current decline in the Caspian Sea level are the influence of anthropogenic factors and climatic changes on the dynamics of its water balance components. A significant component of the incoming part of this balance is the amount of precipitation falling in the territory of the Caspian basin. One of the methods used for forecasting the Caspian Sea level is multiple regression analysis. The validity of the forecasts obtained with its help depends on the significance of the relationships between the studied process in the future and the factors monitored in the present and in the past that are taken into account in their development. The article assesses the significance of statistical correlations between interannual variations in the average monthly background levels of the Caspian Sea and the dynamics of precipitation amounts in its basin, as well as its changes during the period of modern climate warming. The ERA 5 reanalysis information was used as factual material on precipitation. Information on the levels was obtained from literary sources. It was found that in the period of 1979-2021 the conclusion on the significance of the relationships under consideration was characterized by the reliability of at least 0.95 only if the changes in precipitation amounts corresponded to May. As the time shift between the analyzed process and this factor increases from 0 to 36 months, their correlation remains positive and significant, but slightly weakens. During the period of modern climate warming, the revealed correlation also became weaker, which allows us to doubt its significance even in the near future. There were also identified the Caspian basin areas for which, on the contrary, the considered relationship strengthened during the same period. It implies that the probability of the scenario in which they remain significant in the future is higher than that of other scenarios. Therefore, it is reasonable to take the identified relationships into account when forecasting changes in the average level of the Caspian Sea.

Holocene hydroclimate variability of the Baltic region inferred from stable isotopes, d-excess and multi-proxy data at lake Nuudsaku, Estonia (NE Europe)

Long-term hydroclimate records provide an opportunity to understand potential drivers of the past, and give context to modern and future climate warming. A wide variety of proxy data now allow for reconstruction of climate variables that were not previously possible. Here we present a multi-proxy dataset including n-alkane δ2H (δ2Hn-alk) values from an open-basin lake in Estonia to reconstruct past hydroclimate conditions for the eastern Baltic region. We complement our sedimentary δ2Hn-alk data with existing carbonate-based oxygen stable isotope (δ18O) data to derive deuterium (d-) excess. We present multiple isotopic records and reconstructed relative humidity (ΔRH) values over the Holocene, and link these with modern precipitation δ2H and δ18O values to guide the interpretation of the paleo-proxies. Fossil pollen and chironomid-based temperature reconstructions, as well as biogeochemical data provide additional information for inferring past environmental changes. Our results indicate that the middle Holocene in Estonia had on average 6 ± 3% higher RH values than the late Holocene. The δ18O and δ2H values were also higher during the middle Holocene, which we interpret as increased warm season precipitation. Our reconstructed d-excess values were relatively higher during the middle Holocene, indicating a more northerly or cold source water origin, in comparison to the late Holocene. In addition to the paleoclimatic significance, our results show how multiple quantitative proxies can be combined to characterize hydroclimate sensitivity to changes in relative humidity, temperature and moisture source.

АНАЛИЗ СРЕДНЕСУТОЧНЫХ ЗНАЧЕНИЙ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ И ОСАДКОВ ПО ТЕРРИТОРИИ БЕЛАРУСИ С ПОМОЩЬЮ МЕТОДА КВАНТИЛЬНОЙ РЕГРЕССИИ

Average daily air temperature and daily total precipitation were analyzed using quantile regression. Quantiles corresponding to the selected extremes, i.e., below 0.1 (only for the analysis of air temperature) and above 0.9 were considered. It has been shown for the majority of cases that the spatial distribution of air temperature quantiles is close to the mean for winter and summer seasons. Specific features of temporal changes in the quantiles of air temperature and total precipitation are in line with the modern climate warming. A statistically significant relationship between air temperature and Earth surface characteristics is observed only for quantiles of 0.9 and more. Due to the complexity of the factors responsible for the formation of high-intensity precipitation, there is no clear pattern in the spatial distribution of the quantiles of daily total precipitation. There is statistically significant relationship between daily total precipitation, orography, and forest cover fraction on the territory.

Holocene summer temperature reconstruction based on a chironomid record from Sierra Nevada, southern Spain

Obtaining accurate temperature reconstructions from the past is crucial in understanding the consequences of changes in external climate forcings, such as orbital-scale insolation or multidecadal to centennial-scale variability on the climate system and the environment. In addition, these reconstructions help in comprehending the amplitude of natural temperature changes in the past, which can assist in evaluating the amplitude and rate of recent anthropogenic global warming. Here we present the first detailed Holocene mean July air temperature reconstruction based on chironomid assemblages from sediments retrieved from Laguna de Río Seco, an alpine lake in Sierra Nevada, southern Spain. Coldest climate conditions are recorded during the last glacial maximum and the last deglaciation. Warming occurred in the Early Holocene and warmest summer temperature conditions and the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) occurred in the interval roughly between 9000 and 7200 cal yr BP, concurrent with summer insolation maxima. Rapid cooling of ∼1.5 °C occurred after the warmest maximum and between ∼7200 and 6500 cal yr BP, and temperatures stabilized between ∼6500 and 3000 cal yr BP. A further cooling began ∼3000 cal yr BP and culminated with coldest summer conditions during the Dark Ages (DA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) at ∼1550 cal yr BP (∼400 CE) and ∼200 cal yr BP (∼1750 CE), respectively. This cooling temperature trend was interrupted by warmer conditions during the Iberian-Roman Humid Period (IRHP) ∼2000 cal yr BP and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) at ∼1000 cal yr BP. Our reconstruction shows a greater than two-degree cooling during the Middle and Late Holocene, agreeing with global mean surface temperature (GMST) reconstructions. Modern climate warming (MCW) during summer exceeds the two-degree Celsius forecasted for the future due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, suggesting that recent warming is amplified at high elevations. Alpine environments and the biodiversity contained there are thus in danger if the observed temperature trend continues in the next decades.

Long-term variability of the thermal state in the upper horizons of the cryolithozone in Central Yakutia

The results of the 42-year monitoring of the thermal state of permafrost landscapes in modern climate warming conditions at the “Chabyda” observation station (Central Yakutia) are presented. We studied the evolution of the variability of soil thermal state parameters: the temperature of soils on the sole of the seasonally shallow layer and in the layer of annual heat rotations, and the depth of seasonal thawing. The long-term variability of the average annual soil temperature, experiencing significant interannual and short-term fluctuations, has a multidirectional trend, with warming dominating. The main factors regulating the thermal state of permafrost landscapes are the short-period fluctuations in the snow accumulation regime. Despite significant interannual fluctuations, the depth of seasonal thawing responded to climate warming with multidirectional trends, and its increase or decrease was statistically insignificant. We performed a statistical analysis of the observation time series revealing correlations between climate elements (air temperature, total precipitation, average winter snow depth, duration of winter and summer seasons) and relationships between soil temperature regime parameters (Тξ, Т0, ξ) with climate elements. The results of these studies on the thermal state of soils can be applied to homogeneous landscapes in this region. They can also be used to model heat transfer processes in natural landscapes and develop hybrid intelligence methods for diagnosing the state of infrastructure facilities in the Far North based on high-performance computing systems.

Peculiarities of the modern global warming

The peculiarities of modern climate warming and the influence of global atmospheric circulation on it are considered from the position of solar-terrestrial relations. The role of the main atmospheric currents between the equator and both poles of the Earth is so great that for four decades it has caused unprecedentedly strong forest fires and other natural disasters which affected not only Siberia and Southern Europe (Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece and others) but also the USA, Canada and Australia. Another phenomenon of the modern climate is a paradoxically high winter warming in the zone of the Siberian anticyclone. Due to intensification of meridian circulation since the last quarter of the 20th century, the increase in mean annual temperature at the cold pole of the Northern Hemisphere in Yakutia has twice exceeded indicators of other regions and dictates the course of warming of all Northern Asia and North America. The warming wave from the center of the Yakutian core has even reached the southern periphery of the anticyclone in the Northern Tien Shan. The practical side of the study concerns the actively developing oil and gas complex of Yakutia. In nearest future Yakutia will not leave the zone of dangerous forest fires. Along with the costs of extinguishing fires, additional expenses will be required here to deal with post-fire cryogenic transformations of the highly porous base soils. Atmospheric meridian circulation is too large-scale phenomenon to avoid it at the regional level. It amplifies the dynamics of all natural processes in both hemispheres of the Earth and is modulated only by the Sun’s activity in the course of its 11-year and hundred-year cycles.

The last Pleistocene glaciation, gaps in the bird areas of Eastern Siberia and their role in increasing the species diversity of its territory during periods of sharp climate warming

Based on many years of work (1968-2022) and the analysis of special literature, the main features of the modern avifauna of Eastern Siberia and its relationship with Pleistocene glaciations and the climate of the previous epoch are shown. The eastern regions of Russia and the adjacent more southern large mountain systems were characterized by mountain-valley glaciations in the Pleistocene. As a result, up to the Himalayas, the continuous ranges of birds of this period were torn into two parts, and, taking into account the very complex terrain of the territory, into a larger number of isolates. Gaps in bird ranges caused intensive speciation and, in comparison with the previous period, to the formation of increased diversity. Modern climate warming, especially pronounced in Eastern Siberia, has led to the intensive movement of birds to the north, as well as the formation of western and eastern bird settlement flows. As a result, the total diversity of the species composition of birds in Eastern Siberia increased by 116 species (23.6% of the original diversity). The basis of the new species are birds whose habitats were torn apart during the last Pleistocene glaciation. After the discontinuities of the ranges, the tendency to the formation of new species is clearly visible in forest and mountain bird species. In waterfowl and waterfowl, they often did not lead to the formation of new species. This is due to the fact that coastal birds often had a common range far in the south of Asia, where the overall climate cooling was the least. Currently, some species have already formed extensive zones of intergradation of the habitats of closely related species, and many have a clear general trend towards the development of this process. Consequently, mountain-valley glaciers dramatically increased the diversity and isolation of habitats and increased the intensity of speciation of birds based on new geographical isolates. Undoubtedly, prolonged cooling and warming of the climate in a complex and diverse geographical environment are environmental factors of the evolutionary process.

Birds of forest ecosystems of Southern Baikal in the conditions of modern climate warming: Dynamics of population density and structure in summer

On the basis of long-term works (2010-2022), the materials of studying the influence of climate warming on the bird population of forest ecosystems in the summer period are presented. The main indicators of the bird population were studied: population density and species composition. The dynamics of these indicators of the bird population structure and the features of their structure depending on the level of climate change on the ascending branch of the heat-dry phase of the centuries-old climate cycle, close to completion, are considered. The intensity of bird eviction is associated with the localization of very severe, prolonged and extensive droughts. It is the intensity of evictions that determines the new species composition of birds of the studied territories. They are characterized by very low numbers and therefore there is no clear link between the population density of birds and their species richness. At the same time, the general tendency to preserve this pattern (with an increase in the number of species, the population density of birds increases) is noted in some of their main categories. The obtained materials allow us to find out the peculiarities of the dynamics of the biodiversity of birds in Eastern Siberia during periods of severe climatic anomalies. Such materials are extremely important, as they allow us to find out the real role of natural and climatic factors in the evolution of natural ecosystems and the maintenance of the overall biodiversity of large zoogeographic regions of the Earth.

Climate-modulated range expansion of reef-building coral communities off southeast Florida during the late Holocene

The Holocene reefs off southeast Florida provide unique insights into the biogeographical and ecological response of western Atlantic coral reefs to past climate change that can be used to evaluate future climate impacts. However, previous studies have focused on millennial-scale change during the stable mid-Holocene, making it difficult to make inferences about the impact of shorter-term variability that is relevant to modern climate warming. Using uranium-series dating of newly discovered subfossil coral rubble deposits, we establish a new high-resolution record of coral community development off southeast Florida during a period of variable climate in the late Holocene. Our results indicate that coral communities dominated by reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. persisted in the nearshore environments off southeast Florida ~75 km north of their primary historical ranges between ~3500 and 1800 years before present. This timing coincides with regional warming at the northern extent of the Atlantic Warm Pool, suggesting a likely link between regional oceanographic climate and the expansion of cold-sensitive reef-building coral communities to the high-latitude reefs off southeast Florida. These findings not only extend the record of coral-reef development in southeast Florida into the late Holocene, but they also have important implications for future range expansions of reef-building coral communities in response to modern climate change.

Fires, floods and other extreme events – How watershed processes under climate change will shape our coastlines

AbstractOngoing sea-level rise has brought renewed focus on terrestrial sediment supply to the coast because of its strong influence on whether and how long beaches, marshes and other coastal landforms may persist into the future. Here, we summarise findings of sediment discharge from several coastal rivers, revealing that infrequent, large-magnitude events have disproportionate influence on the morphodynamics of coastal landforms and littoral cells. These event-dominated effects are most pronounced for small, steep mountainous rivers that supply beach and wetland sediment along the world’s active tectonic margins, although infrequent events are important drivers of sediment discharge for rivers worldwide. Additionally, extreme events (recurrence intervals of decades to centuries) that follow wildfires, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, extreme precipitation or – most notably – combinations of these factors can redefine coastal sediment budgets and morphology. Some of these extreme events (e.g., wildfiresplusrainfall) are increasing in magnitude and frequency under modern climate warming, with the likely result of increasing sediment flux to affected coastlines. Climate change is also altering watershed processes in both high latitudes and high altitudes, resulting in increased sediment supply to downstream catchments. We conclude that sediment inputs to coastal systems are highly variable with time, and that the variability and trends in sediment input are as important to characterise as long-term averages.

Aerosynoptic conditions for the formation of winter thunderstorms on the example of the Minsk-2 airfield

In the conditions of modern climate warming, there is an increase in the number of hazardous weather phenomena, including thunderstorm activity, not only in the warm, but also in the cold season. The article analyses the occurrence of winter thunderstorms (October – March) and their connections with aerosynoptic conditions are revealed on the example of the Minsk-2 airfield for the period from 1989 to 2020. The determination of these relationships is necessary to make a qualitative forecast of thunderstorms as one of the hazardous weather phenomena for aviation. It was found that for the formation of winter thunderstorms requires the arrival of warm (with an air temperature above 0 °C) and moist air mass from the south or southwest, associated with the displacement of intensively deepening North Atlantic or southern cyclones in the stage of a young cyclone; the passage of primary and secondary active cold fronts with speeds of more than 30 km/h, cold fronts with waves and occlusion fronts, which provide the rise of warm and moist air of the lower troposphere; the existence of convective instability in the atmosphere; the presence tongue of warm and humid air, which is replaced by a trough of cold, at the level of 850 mb; the presence of low-jet currents and positive vorticity at the level of 700 mb and level of 500 mb, indicating the rise of an air particle; the presence of powerful jet currents of the western quarter at the level of 300 mb, enhancing convective processes. The obtained results can be used to replenish the methodological base on the forecasting of hazardous convective phenomena in Belarus, and also as recommendations for the forecast of thunderstorms in the cold season in the operational work of weather forecasters.

Long-term trends in daily extreme air temperature indices in Ireland from 1885 to 2018

Long-term instrumental series are crucial to analyse extreme air temperature indices and to examine modern climate warming within a historical context. This research provides the first assessment in Ireland of the frequency, duration, intensity and geographical distribution of the daily extreme air temperature indices recommended by the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) and based on long-term rescued, quality-controlled and homogenised data. Prior analysis of air temperature indices in Ireland had focused on the period since the second half of the 20th century, where digital data were readily available. Earlier estimations of long-term air temperature trends in Ireland focused on non-homogenised data from a small network of stations. For this research, 11 long-term (1885–2018) maximum and minimum air temperature series were analysed to assess seasonal and annual trends and construct extreme air temperature indices in Ireland. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to test the statistical significance of the maximum and minimum air temperatures and indices trends (p < 0.05). Significant increasing trends were assessed in the seasonal and annual maximum and minimum air temperature series in Ireland, with greater increases in the spring and autumn seasons. Significant increasing trends were determined in the warm days (+6.8 days), warm nights (+7.5 nights), warm spell duration index (+3.9 days), growing season length (+22 days), coldest night (+2.7 °C) and coldest day (+1.5 °C) in the period 1885–2018 in Ireland. In the same period, significant decreasing trends were identified in the cold days (−9.3 days), cold nights (−7 nights), frost days (−13.7 days), cold spell duration index (−6.9 days) and diurnal air temperature range (−0.1 °C) in Ireland. The results follow global patterns presented in the Six Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The findings of this research will be crucial to assist stakeholders and policymakers in defining climate action, adaptation and mitigation plans in response to shifting trends in air temperature extremes.

Modern climate warming, dynamics and development of new plots of bird areas as population adaptation to anthropogenic landscapes of Eastern Siberia

The article discusses the features of the formation of new plots of the areas for birds in the anthropogenic landscapes of Eastern Siberia under the conditions of modern climate warming. It is emphasized that at the initial stages of this process, the warming was not intense and hardly noticeable (the beginning of the 19th - the first half of the 20th centuries). However, already at that time there was a clear trend towards the expansion of bird areas to the north and east. This process has progressed as the trend towards climate warming intensifies. In the second half of the 20th century, some typically western bird species reached Eastern Siberia. At the same time, extensive and prolonged droughts in the east of Central Asia caused a strong counter flow of dispersing birds to the west and north. In a number of bird species, mixing of the streams of dispersing birds was observed, and often these were closely related species. This indicates the formation of gaps in their once common areas that arose during periods of sharp cooling in previous climatic epoch. In the middle of the 20th century, the anthropogenic development of Eastern Siberia was very high. This facilitated the movement of birds of open landscapes far north. This fact is also emphasized by the oncoming flows of birds settling to the east and west as a result of severe and prolonged droughts in Central Asia. The birds of these streams crossed the Baikal rift zone (the northeastern zoogeographic boundary) and went far to the north - to the Central Yakut lowland and the tundra zone. The data obtained show that the development of new territories by birds and the expansion of their areas is associated with intense climate warming. The development of the territory by man only contributed to the movement of birds to new regions, due to the formation of more suitable habitats for birds (open and mosaic landscapes). Consequently, the intensification of climate warming, coinciding with the expansion of bird areas to the north, indicates that it was warming, and not intensive development of the territory by humans, that played the leading role in this process. The entire process currently observed is the adaptation of birds to the dynamic conditions of the new climatic period.

Permafrost Landscape Research in the Northeast of Eurasia

The results of permafrost landscape studies on northeastern Eurasia are presented in this review. The assessment of permafrost vulnerability to disturbances and global warming was the basis for the development of these studies. The permafrost landscape, considering the morphological features of the landscape and the permafrost together, is a timely object of study. The theoretical developments of Soviet physical geographers and landscape scientists are the basis for permafrost landscape studies. Over the past four decades, numerous permafrost landscape studies have been carried out on northeastern Eurasia (and Russia). Considering the results of these studies is the main objective of this article. The analysis of the problems of permafrost landscape identification, classification, and mapping and the study of their dynamics and evolution after disturbances and long-term development were carried out. Permafrost landscape studies employ the research methods of landscape science and geocryology. Environmental protection and adaptation of socioeconomic conditions to modern climate warming will determine the prospects for studying permafrost landscapes.

Анализ вариаций ледовитости Охотского моря на основе авиационных и спутниковых наблюдений

The paper presents the results of a study of the Sea of Okhotsk ice cover variability for the period 1961–2020. Based on aviation and satellite observations for the first time, the calculations of anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk ice cover were performed for two nonintersecting standard climate normals of 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. Statistical analysis made it possible to quantify the changes that occurred against the background of modern climate warming. The general downward trend in the ice cover of the Sea of Okhotsk for the period from 1961 to 2020 is 3 % per 10 years, and the range of fluctuations reaches about 40 %. It was shown that for the standard climate normal 1991–2020 was characterized by a decrease in the average ice cover for the season by 10 %. The date of the onset of the seasonal maximum of the sea ice coverage in the context of the global trend of increasing air temperature shifted one decade earlier than the date that was determined for the period 1961–1990. (March 5 and 15, respectively). In the phase of intense ice formation, there is a delay in the development of ice processes by 10 days, and in the phase of destruction, it is ahead by 15 days. It is shown that changes in the intraseasonal course of the ice cover in the Sea of Okhotsk that have occurred in the last 30 years are most significantly manifested in the phase of ice cover destruction. In the long-term course of ice coverage anomalies calculated relative to the standard climatic norm of 1991–2020, starting from 2004, there has been a sharp increase in the frequency of negative anomalies (up to 81 %), which indicates a unidirectional development of the process of reducing the ice cover in the Sea of Okhotsk.

Динамика растительности Норильского промышленного района под влиянием аэротехногенных и природных факторов

This study focuses on the transformation of vegetation, degraded over vast areas due to industrial air pollution from the Norilsk metallurgical combine. To assess the current state of ecosystems, we employed a vegetation map that was compiled using median composites of summer imagery 2015–2021 from the Sentinel 2B satellite. The field data collected by a team of geographers from Moscow State University in 2021 was also considered. The analysis of the transformation of vegetation during the operation of the mining and smelting plant is based on a comparison of the vegetation map with the materials of field studies of the same team in 1997 and the vegetation classification based on Landsat images from 1995, taking into account earlier materials such as topographic maps of 1960 and 1977, and forest pathological surveys of the 1980s. For comparison with less detailed materials of previous years, the 2015–2021 map was transformed: similar mosaics of contours were identified on it. This provided the basis for identifying areas with a similar character of vegetation disturbance caused by industrial air pollution. Such areas were then combined into exposure profiles, which allowed us to analyze the transformation of vegetation at different distances and directions from the plant—in accordance with the prevalent winds. The successive replacement of dead forests by shrub and dwarf shrub tundra, degraded dwarf shrub tundra, and technogenic grassy and stony wastelands, as recorded by the 2015–2021 map, was revealed. The substitution series manifest themselves differently in various directions from the combine. Grassy and stony wastelands on sites of dead forests are common within a range from 3 km to the northeast to 10–15 km to the northwest and west and up to 25 km to the southeast of Norilsk. The development of vegetation observed during modern climate warming varies in different replacement zones of dead forests.

The influence of modern climate warming on the water flow and major ion flux of the Northern Dvina

The influence of modern climate warming on the water flow and major ion flux of the Northern Dvina

Long-Term Variability in Ground Thermal State in Central Yakutia’s Tuymaada Valley

This paper presents the results of long-term temperature monitoring at the Yakutsk and Zeleny Lug stations, which are experimental sites, for the thermal state of valley permafrost landscapes under the conditions of modern climate warming. An analysis of the long-term data from meteorological stations in the region clearly showed one of the highest trends of increase in the mean annual air temperature in the north of Russia. Here, we established quantitative regularities in the long-term variability of the ground temperature at the bottom of the active layer and at zero amplitude. The dynamics of the ground temperature of the layer of zero amplitude during climate warming indicate the thermal stability of permafrost. The main regulating factor of the thermal state of grounds in permafrost landscapes is short-term fluctuations in the regime of snow accumulation. Active layer thickness is characterized by low interannual variability, weak climate warming responses, and insignificant trends. The results of studies of the thermal regime of soils can be extended to the same types of valley landscapes in the Lena River, and are a reliable basis for predicting heat transfer in natural and disturbed landscapes.

Space-time changes in the initial phase of modern climate warming

The initial phase of a temperature growth in different parts of the Earth has been examined. It is found that climate warming in the continental areas began 6–8 years earlier than in the oceanic areas. Climate warming in the sub-polar cyclonic circulation area in the North Atlantic has been started only after the beginning of the positive quasi-30-year phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), i. e. since 2000s. On the basis of the Singular Spectrum Analysis of the air temperature time series the continental areas are found, in which summer air temperature changes are synchronous with AMO on a decadal scale. In those regions, climate warming began with a 10–15 year lag in comparison to other continental areas. The highest level of statistical significance of the correlation between quasi-60-year AMO components and summer air temperatures is observed in Central and Eastern Europe (35–60° N, 10–45° E). This oscillation explains the decadal summer temperature changes within the range of ±(0.5–0.6) °C in Belarus. Climate warming intensifies in summer during the ascending AMO segment, while during the descending segment, which has started since around 2010, the decrease in the rate of growth of summer temperatures should be expected.